Polymarket Joins NYSE’s Family & Why Beer Stocks Aren’t Shining

Summary

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Brew Markets — Episode Summary

Podcast: Brew Markets (Morning Brew)
Host: Ann Berry
Episode: Polymarket Joins NYSE’s Family & Why Beer Stocks Aren’t Shining
Date: October 7, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode tackles two timely market stories: the New York Stock Exchange’s (NYSE) $2 billion investment in Polymarket and what it signals for the mainstreaming of prediction markets, and the ongoing struggles of beer stocks, particularly Constellation Brands, amidst shifting demographics and consumer trends. The show also answers a listener question about how warrants work, using OpenAI and AMD’s recent deal as a real-world example, and wraps up with a quick market rundown and a nod to brewing robotics M&A.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NYSE Invests in Polymarket: Prediction Markets Go Mainstream

[01:00-04:12]

• Background: NYSE’s parent company, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), announced a $2 billion strategic investment in Polymarket, the crypto-based event prediction market recently cleared of DOJ investigations and newly licensed for US operation.
• Why It Matters:
  • Marks a legitimizing step for prediction markets, bringing them closer to the financial mainstream.
  • ICE will distribute Polymarket’s event-driven data globally, integrating it with its existing analytics across exchanges, mortgage tech, and data services.
  • Polymarket’s new valuation hits $8 billion as it rejoins the US market.
  • ICE shares responded positively, up about 1.5% on the news.
• Speaker Highlight:
  • Ann Berry describes ICE as “a global distributor of polymarket's event driven data and sentiment metrics, adding to its already large treasure trove of analytics.” (03:40)
  • “Prediction markets as a result [are] seeming to go ever more mainstream.” (03:55)

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2. Beer Industry Woes: Constellation Brands & Sector Pain

[05:20-11:01]

• Constellation Brands Results:
  • Ticker: STZ, Market Cap: ~$25B.
  • Q2 earnings: $3.63/share (beat by $0.05), down 16% YoY.
  • Sales: -15% to $2.5B; beer net sales down 7%.
  • The stock is down 40% YoY, reflecting broader sector weakness.
  • Emily quips that after reading the report, “it doesn’t seem like shareholders...are going to be cracking open a cold one.” (04:27)
• Broader Industry:
  • Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD): Sales volumes -2% (also fell in 2024, 2023); share price -10% YoY.
  • Molson Coors (TAP): Beer sales -2% Q2, stock -16% YoY.
  • Headwinds: Demographic shifts, rise of mocktails and non-alcoholic beers (e.g., Athletic Brewing), possible substitution from cannabis, and impact of weight-loss drugs (GLP-1 agonists).
• Demographic & Cultural Trends:
  • Gen Z is drinking less; Constellation is innovating with products like Corona Sunbrew Citrus Cerveza, inspired by youth mixing OJ with Corona at spring break—now their “number 1 SKU so far this year.” (07:35)
  • CEO Bill Newlands downplays GLP-1 impact (“There just isn't a lot of evidence that GLP is having much impact whatsoever...I think cannabis could be, as you go forward...consumers make choices as to where they spend their discretionary funds.”) (08:13)
  • Over 50% of Constellation’s consumer base is Hispanic; policy changes impacting social gatherings are seen as drivers for sales declines.
• Market Analysis Moment:
  • Ann reflects: “It’s an opportunity to...not just see the headlines...but actually [dig] into the earnings calls...here we are touching on so many questions around the consumer by demographic, by preferences...” (09:33)

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3. Explainer Segment: What are Warrants? (OpenAI & AMD Deal)

[12:02-16:40]

• Listener Question: Jerome in California asks about warrants in the OpenAI-AMD deal.
• Ann’s Explanation:
  • A warrant gives the holder the right, not the obligation, to buy a company’s stock at a pre-set price (strike), before an expiration date.
  • Useful in riskier situations to incentivize investment; less common for established companies like AMD.
  • In the OpenAI-AMD deal, OpenAI can buy up to 160M AMD shares at $0.01; AMD trades at ~$200/share. Maximum OpenAI outlay: $1.6M.
  • “This deal is even juicier because it’s structured with something called cashless exercise...OpenAI doesn’t actually have to pay out that $0.01 in cash...” (15:07)
  • Warrants vest over five years based on AMD hitting price/technical milestones; deal ends early if supply relationship falters.
  • “This is a particularly unusual deal...a rich deal, but it’s one that AMD is banking on to make sure it’s up there in the same sentences as Nvidia...” (16:33)

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4. Quick Market Wrap & Noteworthy Moves

[16:45-19:11]

• Major indices:
  • Dow: -0.2%
  • S&P 500: -0.4%
  • Nasdaq: -0.7%
• Commodity surge:
  • Gold tops $4,000/oz, up >50% YTD; Ray Dalio recommends 15% gold allocation.
• Supply chain news:
  • Ford down 6% after WSJ report on NY aluminum plant fire impacting F150 supply.
• Tech:
  • Oracle rebounds after a 7% drop; cloud/AI margins lagging due to Nvidia chip rental.
• Memorable quote:
  • John: “Gold futures topped $4,000 per ounce for the first time today, up over 50% already this year. At a conference this morning, hedge fund founder Ray Dalio said he believes investors should allocate as much as 15% of their portfolios to the commodity.” (16:55)

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5. Closing Thought: Robotics as the Next AI Frontier

[18:00-19:11]

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: Robotics is the “next AI frontier.”
• Qualcomm acquires Arduino (terms undisclosed), “gives Qualcomm direct access to the tinkerers, hobbyists and companies at the lowest levels of the robotics industry.” (18:30, quoting CNBC)
• Ann's insight: Lack of disclosed deal terms often signals street skepticism.
• Qualcomm stock fell 2% on announcement.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Polymarket Investment:
  • Ann Berry: “Prediction markets as a result [are] seeming to go ever more mainstream.” (03:55)
• On Demographics & Product Innovation:
  • John Coteau Tarkab Delatif: “Young people were mixing OJ and Corona...Corona, Sunbrew, Citrus Cerveza...became the company’s number 1 SKU so far this year.” (07:35)
• On Cannabinoids vs. Beer:
  • Bill Newlands (CEO, Constellation): “...consumers are constrained about their spending patterns, they make choices as to where they spend their discretionary funds.” (08:20)
• On Warrants (Ann Berry):
  • “The beauty of this deal for OpenAI is it set up to get them up to a 10% equity stake in AMD without shelling out a ton of cash for it.” (15:40)
  • “This is a particularly unusual deal...it’s one that AMD is banking on to make sure it’s up there in the same sentences as Nvidia...” (16:33)
• On the Fun of Market Deep-Dives:
  • Ann Berry: “...this is really why looking at the markets for us is so much fun.” (09:33)

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• Polymarket/NYSE Investment News: 01:00–04:12
• Beer Industry Earnings & Analysis: 05:20–11:01
• Warrants 101 / OpenAI-AMD Deal: 12:02–16:40
• Market Recap: 16:45–18:00
• Robotics & Qualcomm--Arduino Acquisition: 18:00–19:11

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This episode delivers both a big-picture look at the financial world embracing the prediction markets and a detailed exploration of the pain points in legacy industries like beer, all in Brew Market’s signature lively, data-driven analysis with real-world relevance for investors and market-watchers.

Transcript

[Ann Berry]

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[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

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[Emily Milian]

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[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

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[Ann Berry]

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[Emily Milian]

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[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

We're spending millions of dollars. I'm so excited to embark on this adventure with all of you.

[Ann Berry]

Maybe the best idea win on Brand with Jimmy Fallon. Tonight on NBC.

[Emily Milian]

U.S. beer consumption continues to decline. We explore the challenges faced by Modelo and Corona. Warrants are juicing OpenAI's deal with AMD diluting the chip makers shareholders. We bust through the jargon to break down just how those warrants work. And the New York Stock Exchange becomes close cousins with prediction markets. Why does this matter? For Tuesday, October 7, it's blue markets Daily and I'm Anne Barry. More market details to come. But first, US Stock exchanges have been making moves to get into the same family as next gen trading options. We've talked on this show before about Nasdaq taking a $50 million ownership stake in Gemini, the crypto exchange, in preparation for offering more digital asset trading on its own equities exchange. And just yesterday we talked about prediction markets, which is a relatively new set of contracts in which users wager on outcomes ranging from sports match to just how long the US Government shutdown might last. Check out yesterday's episode for more on how it all works. Well, the New York Stock Exchange is now getting closer to the prediction market action. Just today, the owner of the 233-year-old exchange announced a $2 billion investment in polymarket, which was founded just five years ago in 2020 and is a cryptocurrency based prediction market headquartered in New York. Now, Polymarket has been plagued with controversy almost since since inception with the U. S. Department of justice and Swiss, French, Polish, Belgian and Singaporean regulators all investigating the firm in recent years for alleged violations of gambling rules. Only as recently as this July did the DOJ end its investigation with Polymarket then buying a regulated exchange so it could legally operate in the United States, having been off limits since 2022. Now, the New York Stock Exchange, or NYSE, is itself owned by a public company. That's one of my favorite fun facts. And that parent company is Intercontinental Exchange Trading. Yes, on the New York Stock Exchange with the ticker ICE. That's ICE now with a market cap of $92 billion. ICE operates through three main divisions, first exchanges including the New York Stock Exchange and 12 other regulated exchanges and six clearinghouses. And they're located globally. Second, mortgage technology and third, fixed income and Data Services, which facilitates debt trading. Now across all these three segments all over the world, ICE collects, aggregates and monetizes massive amounts of data from equities to commodities to bonds to real estate. And now with its cash going into polymarket as a strategic investor, ICE will become a global distributor of polymarket's event driven data and sentiment metrics, adding to its already large treasure trove of analytics. And it's going to lend the credibility of its trophy assets just by association, like the New York Stock Exchange as Poly Market pushes back into the US market with a sparkling new $8 billion valuation and prediction markets as a result, seeming to go ever more mainstream. Now, I said today that we'll provide more details on the transaction on its earnings call later this month. So we are going to keep watching. And meanwhile, ICE shares up about 1.5% on the news. Coming up, Constellation Brands earnings shines a light on demographic differences. And we answer one listener's question on how warrants work for OpenAI. But first, a word from our sponsor, Capital Client Group. Now, our producer John and I were talking about some other podcasts that we listen to.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

That's right. Are you looking for smart, candid advice to help grow your career? Well, the Capital Ideas podcast brings you real conversations with Capital Group leaders and investors, sharing their lessons, challenges and turning points that shaped them.

[Emily Milian]

Whether you're just starting out or thinking about your next chapter, there may be something here for you. Listen to the Capital Ideas podcast from Capital Group, available wherever you get your podcasts published by Capital Client Group Inc. Well, it's time now to talk about adult beverages. That's many syllables for saying beer. Because despite posting second quarter earnings that beat Wall Street's expectations this week, it doesn't seem like shareholders in Constellation Brands, which is the US Distributor of Corona and Modela beers, are going to be cracking open. A cold one to Sales are down at Constellation, but also across the industry more broadly, which has prompted investors to ask which headwinds are at play. Let's unpack the demographics and can Constellation specifically find a way to navigate them? So our producer John I think having sampled a couple of beers in preparation for this segment, tell us about some of your learnings from the tastings and from the earnings report.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

Yes, I'll start with the earnings report. You know, we can get get back to my review of the beer Constellation brain is ticker stz. I guess that's star in the Constellation market cap near $25 billion. And like you said, the company reported earnings of $3.63 a share, a beat of 5 cents, but that's down 16% from a year ago. And sales declined 15% to about $2.5 billion. Specifically for beer, net sales were down 7%. So the company lowered guidance in September. So expectations were already sort of low today. I heard analysts saying that this was the least bad outcome for the company. The stock price was up about 2%, edged down and it's down over 40% year over year. The entire beer segment is depressed.

[Emily Milian]

Well, let's, let's take a look at the rest of the beer segment then together. So we've got Anheuser Busch and Bev, which is another big player in the beer space. Right. First half of 2025, sales volumes declined 2% by the way. They were also down. Do you remember this? In 2024 and in 2023. And the share price of the company, Ticker Bud. That's Bud because. Yes, John, give us the top brand over there.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

It made Budweiser.

[Emily Milian]

It made Budweiser share price down 10% year over year as well. Then there's Molson cause beer sales down just under 2% in the second quarter share price. Ticker Tap, Tap, all the best tickers in the sector down 16%. So everyone's feeling some version of the pain here. Right. And it's interesting because there's been a lot of speculation as to why not just beer, but spirits in general have been seeing a decline. You and I have talked about Diageo in the past and some of the other wine brands.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

That's right.

[Emily Milian]

And tariffs have been at play. But also this debate has been even without tariffs, how much pressure are those brands facing?

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

Just is it generational?

[Emily Milian]

Right.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

We've seen the rise in mocktails. Even bars serving non alcoholic drinks. There's brands like Athletic brand non alcoholic beer. And so this is a big question if this is a, a trend that the next generation, Generation Z, if they're not drinking as much, I thought this is interesting. On the earnings call, Constellation said that over spring break this year they saw that, that young people were mixing OJ and Corona, which is one of their brands. And so the company launched a nationwide rollout of Corona, Sunbrew, Citrus Cerveza, which became the company's number $1 SKU so far this year. So they're trying to tap into that youth market.

[Emily Milian]

I haven't tried that one yet. I got to tell you, the weather is so mind Bogglingly pleasant. At the moment, I feel like summer's been extended, so there's still time to try that OJ Corona mix. Let's actually listen to what CEO of Constellation, Bill Newlands, had to say on the recent earnings call because he was asked if the company felt a general threat from two areas. One was weight loss drugs, the other was cannabis. Let's hear his response.

[Bill Newlands]

There just isn't a lot of evidence that GLP is having much impact whatsoever. I think cannabis could be, as you go forward to be fr. Because, you know, as consumers are constrained about their spending patterns, they make choices as to where they spend their discretionary funds.

[Emily Milian]

Interesting. He's really prescriptive in his answer. Right, John? So you and I have talked about snacks on the show before.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

Sure.

[Emily Milian]

And there's been this question around, is GLP having an impact or not here? CEO Bill Newlands was super clear. We don't think it's GLPs.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

He doesn't seem to think that. But perhaps weed and cannabis, a different type of vice or however people see it, might supplant beer in the younger generation.

[Emily Milian]

So seeing perhaps some substitution there in their discretionary spending for recreational consumption. The other area that was touched on in this earnings call, which I thought was fascinating, is the fact that over 50% of Constellation's consumer base is Hispanic. And now earlier this year, the company has seen a rapid drop off of sales for brands that are particularly popular amongst that demographic. Talk to us about what we learned on the earnings report with respect to that.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

Specifically, executives have said that the White House immigration policy has impacted social occasions. And so there's fewer people gathering friends and family in public spaces. And so they attribute that to some of the decline in beer sales.

[Emily Milian]

Well, this is one of the reasons that we love the market so much, or I'm biased. I actually love talking about the markets. And one of the reasons that I really enjoy earnings season, because it's an opportunity to look at a company and not just see the headlines, not just read the press release, not just see what the share price is doing when it's bopping around, but it's actually digging into the earnings calls, listening to them, looking at the transcripts. And this to me is fascinating because this is just one company in one moment in time. And here we are touching on so many questions around the consumer by demographic, by preferences with respect to cannabis, for example, by talking about a health and wellness trend like a glp, by looking about what's. Looking at what's going on at this company, specifically what's going on in comparison across entire industry. So I'm just sharing that enthusiasm, that passion. John's nodding, just thinking, oh, she's going off on one. But this is really why looking at the markets for us is so much fun. And we would just love to get your feedback on specific companies that you want to look at, specific consumer trends that you are observing. That translates into thinking about which stocks to invest in because at the end of the day, it's all data gathering with which to make these investing decisions. Well, let's take a quick break and when we come back, Warrants play a big role in OpenAI's deal with AMD. So what are they exactly? Brew Markets Daily is sponsored by Public, the platform for those who take investing seriously. Public combines a wide range of asset classes with the tools you need to build and manage your wealth, whether it's with stocks, options, bonds or crypto.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

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[Emily Milian]

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[Emily Milian]

John we have a question from the audience.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

That's right, Jerome in California wrote in Ann, you mentioned on the show yesterday that OpenAI is getting warrants in chipmaker AMD. What are warrants?

[Emily Milian]

Well, thank you for asking Jerome. Any excuse to nerd out on technical finance makes me gives, brings me so much joy. So I'm excited to dig into this one now. Warrants surface in actually a lot of situations and they just don't get enough attention. And in preparation for this, I actually poked around the OpenAI AMD deal documents some more. So I'm going to come back to that in just a moment. First of all, here's how warrants work and stick with me, it's worth going through the pain of the detail on this one. So a warrant gives an investor who's known as the warrant holder the right but not the obligation to buy a company's stock at a specific price. That is a pre arranged purchase price known as the exercise price or the strike price. And the warrant holder, if they do decide to buy, has to do it at a preset expiration date. So let's go through a numerical example to see how it works. Suppose I get a warrant to buy a share in a company for $1. That's the strike price on January 1st. Now when January 1st rolls around, if that company stock price is above $1, let's say it's 10 bu and I as the warrant holder can buy a share for just $1, but because it's worth 10 bucks, I've got a $9 profit either on paper or if I turn around and actually sell that share with $9 of cash profit now sitting in my pocket. But suppose Jan1 rolls around and the share of this company is really worth 50 cents. That is less than the strike price of my warrant. I wouldn't buy a share for $1 if it's worth only 50 cents. So I would just let the warrant expire. No cash goes out of my pocket. It's worthless. Now, companies issue warrants to raise money or make their deals more attractive. And in these cases, investors may get to lend to a company or take an equity stake plus get warrants with that debt or equity to get extra upside if the company performs well. Now, we tend to see warrants when there are higher risk situations for investors, such as when they're putting money into startups or companies emerging from restructurings and where there's still a lot of work for a company to do to turn things around. So it's a little bit more curious that it's here happening with a company as mature as AMD is. Speaking of wits, let's dig a little bit more into OpenAI's deal with A with AMD. Now, I nerded out, I read the SEC filing that AMD issued with the details of this warrant deal is literally here in front of me. Very small font and very dense. That's what I do for the show. Now under the deal, OpenAI will get to buy up to 160 million shares in AMD at the warrant exercise price of $0.01 per share. $0.01 per share. Right. Now bear in mind the AMD stock price today is over $200. So think about it. Open AI gets to access for just $0.01 per AMD share worth today, before any growth over 200. That's unbelievably attractive access. So too, in theory, is the fact that the maximum cash that OpenAI would pay for those 160 million shares at just $0.01 each, is a total of $1.6 million. Now, OpenAI is burning cash. We all know that. So the beauty of this deal for OpenAI is it set up to get them up to a 10% equity stake in AMD without shelling out a ton of cash for it. $1.6 million for all that value is not a lot of cash. And now there's even more. In practice, this deal is even juicier because it's structured with something called cashless exercise, where OpenAI doesn't actually have to pay out that $0.01 in cash. That strike price essentially just gets deducted. It gets sort of out, gets out through the wash from the profit when the time actually comes for the warrants to turn into actual shares themselves. Now, OpenAI doesn't get access to these warrants all at once. They're spread out over the next five years. They're tied to AMD achieving certain stock price targets which are as high as $600 per share. And they're also subject to OpenAI achieving technical and commercial milestones that are needed for AMD chips to be deployed at scale. So AMD needs to be getting their end of the bargain from OpenAI too. But if the supply relationship between these two ends under certain circumstances, this deal is over as well. Now, there's no doubt OpenAI is getting a lot in return for boosting AMD's revenue with GPU purchases. This is a particularly unusual deal. It's a rich deal, but it's one that AMD is banking on to make sure it's up there in the same sentences as Nvidia. When it comes to really staking out ground in next week, Gen Chips, we're going to keep watching.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

And if you have a question for Ann, send an email or voice memo to BrewMarketShoworning Broadcom.

[Emily Milian]

Well, it's 4:00pm on the east Coast. There it is. It's the closing bell. The market's wrapping up and we don't have a ticker tape, but we're going to throw it over to our human ticker. John, thanks.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

Major indices were lower across the board today. The Dow was down 2.10of a percent. The S&P 500 finished down nearly 4.10, and Nasdaq down nearly 710 of a percent. Gold futures topped $4,000 per ounce for the first time today, up over 50% already this year. At a conference this morning, hedge fund founder Ray Dalio said he believes investors should allocate as much as 15% of their portfolios to the commodity. Listen back to Ann's conversation with John ciampaglia on our September 22 episode. So much good context to understand the run up. And the Wall Street Journal is reporting on a massive fire last month that leveled a key part of a New York aluminum plant. Ford is the biggest user of the facility, sourcing aluminum for its F150 pickup, the top selling vehicle in the US and the automaker's main profit driver. Even though the fire happened last month, the report seems to be moving the stock today. Shares in Ford were down over 6% as the company works to shore up its supply chain. And finally, shares and Oracle Edge backup after a 7% drop this morning. Apparently the cloud business brings in lower than expected profit margins, particularly when it comes to AI services like the rental of servers powered by Nvidia chips.

[Emily Milian]

I feel like chips is just the word du jour at the moment. And we're actually going to finish somewhat in that space in a final thought with a quick touch on robotics. Now, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has been saying that robotics represents the next AI frontier. He said it for a while, it's physical AI. And today there was news that Qualcomm is buying into the sector. The company said it's acquiring Arduino. I love that name. An electronics maker whose inexpensive programmable circuit boards and computers are common in hardware startups and robotics labs for prototyping. So we don't know actually the full terms of the deal. The price wasn't disclosed and I just thought there was a fantastic sentence in a CNBC article that described it. It says, quote, the deal gives Qualcomm direct access to the tinkerers, hobbyists and companies at the lowest levels of the robotics industry. Any excuse to say tinkerers? I think it's a lot of fun, but just another sign that robotics is another frontier, another sign that M and A mergers and acquisitions activity is heating up. And by the way, one person's view, when terms of a deal and prices aren't disclosed, often a sign the market might think it's overvalued. Qualcomm stock was down 2% today. That's it, folks, for today's Blue Markets Daily.

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

Blue Markets Daily is hosted by Ann Berry and produced by John Coteau Tarkab Delatif and Emily Milian. Our technical directors, Uchenawa Ogu. Dan Bowser handles audio. And the president of Morning Brew, Inc. Is Devin Emery.

[Emily Milian]

Wake up tomorrow with the Morning Brew newsletter and tune in to Neil and Toby on Morning Brew daily. We'll see you back here tomorrow, folks. Same time, same place.

[Ann Berry]

Limu Emu and Doug. Here we have the Limu Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug. Limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us. Cut the camera. They see us. Only pay for what you [e-mail].

[John Coteau Tarkab Delatif]

Savings vary. Underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company affiliates.

[Emily Milian]

Excludes Massachusetts.