Brew Markets – Episode Summary

Prediction Markets Enter the Octagon & Disney Experiences a Drop

Date: November 13, 2025
Host: Ann Berry (with producer John and other contributors)

Episode Overview

This episode unpacks the seismic entrance of prediction markets into mainstream sports with UFC’s Polymarket partnership, the stark realities facing Disney after disappointing earnings, and several other key shifts across stocks and ETFs. Host Ann Berry delivers sharp analysis, witty takes, and hands-on insights, making it a brisk, info-packed listen for investors and market-watchers.

Key Segments and Discussion Points

1. UFC & Prediction Markets: Polymarket Partnership

[00:00–04:08]

• Headline News:
  UFC’s parent company, TKO Group, announced a landmark multiyear deal with prediction market leader Polymarket, making UFC and Zafa Boxing the first sports organizations to use prediction market tech in live events.
• How It Works:
  Fans will be able to buy, sell, and trade contracts predicting match outcomes in real time.
• Purpose & Social Impact:
  This model is expected to increase audience engagement, which "was the repeated word of the day” for this deal (Ann Berry, [01:16]).
• Industry Impact:
  The move is seen as a direct challenge to traditional sports betting – notably DraftKings, whose stock dropped over 6% on the news.
  • "There’s very good reason for them to be afraid... the threat to traditional sports betting is very, very real" (Ann Berry, [02:14]).
• Wider Trend:
  Prediction markets are gaining traction, with Robinhood reporting this as its fastest-growing product, outpacing even crypto (via partnership with Kalshi).
  • “Faster adoption to date at Robinhood, by the way, even than with crypto.” (Ann Berry, [02:57])
• Symbolic Investment:
  Polymarket’s heavy backing from ICE (owner of NYSE) is flagged as “the old world meeting the new” (Ann Berry, [03:30]).

2. Disney's Mixed Earnings and Structural Challenges

[04:08–09:30]

• Earnings Recap:
  Disney shares fell more than 8% after reporting flat $22.5B revenue, missing estimates.
• Bright Spot:
  The experiences/parks segment remains a profit engine (accounts for over half of profit), with operating income up 13% domestically, 25% internationally. Cruises are a growth focus, with plans to double fleet size over the decade.
• Problem Areas:
  • Linear TV (e.g., ABC) revenues declined 16% year over year, drawing headlines ([05:33]).
• Google/YouTube Blackout:
  Disney is losing $4 million in revenue daily due to an ongoing content blackout on YouTube TV. Both Disney and YouTube are large enough to withstand the standoff, compared by Berry to “the content equivalent of the government shutdown” ([06:48]).
  • Notable quote: “We’re ready to go as long as they want to.” – Disney CFO Hugh Johnston, (reported at [06:19]).
• Stock Performance Concerns:
  Both Ann and John share personal anecdotes of disappointment with Disney stock’s stagnant performance post-Bob Iger’s return.
  • “The problem is it hasn’t really moved. Right. The share price does seem to be stuck in neutral.” (Ann Berry, [07:52])
• Capital Allocation Debate:
  Berry questions if Disney should be returning cash to shareholders instead of doubling down on successful business lines (parks, cruises), given the uncertainty in TV and streaming.
  • “I’m not completely convinced in this case that this is the right call...should they be sending cash back to shareholders or should they be doubling down?” (Ann Berry, [08:19])
• Succession Plans:
  Bob Iger expected to announce a successor early next year—a live question mark for investors.

3. Unexpected Retail Surprise: Dillard’s Earnings

[09:30–12:56]

• Market Reaction:
  Dillard’s shares surged 20% following earnings.
• Company Background:
  • Headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas; founded 1938.
  • Largely family-run, concentrated primarily in the South; not a household name on the coasts.
  • Family retains significant ownership and executive roles.
• Shareholder and Employee Structure:
  Dillard’s is cited as a model of capital allocation and focus, with 30% of stock held in employee ownership plans.
  • “Employee success is very, very explicitly tied to the stock performance and to wealth creation there. So pretty unusual.” (Ann Berry, [12:43])
• Performance:
  Revenue just under $1.5 billion, modestly up year over year; same-store sales up 3%.
• Analyst Coverage:
  Extremely limited analyst coverage; doesn’t take Q&A on earnings calls—a testament to its insular, controlled approach.

4. Cisco Earnings and Industrial IoT Growth

[12:56–15:02]

• Strong Quarter:
  Cisco stock jumped by nearly 5% following an 8% revenue rise to almost $15B, with outlook raised.
• Industrial IoT Gains:
  Orders grew over 25%, driven by “ruggedized equipment and onshoring trends.”
  • “Whenever someone uses the word ruggedized, it’s worthy of digging in…” (Ann Berry, [13:42])
• Tariffs & Onshoring:
  Cisco’s results give tangible evidence that tariffs are motivating some U.S. manufacturing onshoring.
• Physical AI Adoption:
  Management cited “physical AI adoption,” echoing terminology from Nvidia’s Jensen Huang ([13:56]).

5. The QQQ ETF Vote Blitz

[15:39–18:46]

• Why Are QQQ Investors Being Nagged?
  The $243B Nasdaq-linked ETF is seeking to modernize its structure (from a unit investment trust to a management company) for greater flexibility and efficiency.
• Voting Challenge:
  Because non-responses count as “no” votes, Invesco is aggressively contacting holders to reach the threshold for approval.
• Investor Impact:
  • Supposed to slightly lower expenses (from 0.2% to 0.18%).
  • Would allow innovations like securities lending/dividend reinvestment.
  • “I haven’t been nudged this much since Duolingo’s little green owl was nagging me to get back to my language homework.” (Ann Berry, [16:14])
• Deadline:
  Vote has been extended to December 5th, as participation has been low.

6. Quick Hits: Market Wrap & NBC Sports Channel

[18:46–19:28]

• Market Recap:
  • S&P 500 and Dow both down nearly 0.7%
  • Nasdaq down over 2%
• NBC Sports Channel Relaunch:
  • NBC will revive its sports channel (NBSC) after scooping up lucrative sports rights, including an NBA deal.
  • Sports programming is one cable bright spot amid broader linear TV decline.

7. Verizon Shake-Up

[19:28–21:01]

• Leadership Change:
  Verizon’s board ousted the CEO after a 30% loss in market share, dropping from #1 to #3.
  • “The board needed to act and we did.” – Mark Bertolini (Verizon Chair), [20:11]
• Layoffs Ahead:
  News broke during the day of a planned 15,000-person reduction in force, underlining sweeping changes afoot.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Polymarket/UFC Deal:
  “The speculative nature of these posts will spark social debate and engagement and create a topical market for polymarket to host on their platform.” – TKO press release (summarized by Ann, [01:10])
• On DraftKings’ Reaction:
  “The threat to traditional sports betting is very, very real. And the irony being DraftKings itself isn’t that old.” – Ann Berry, [02:14]
• On Disney’s YouTube Blackout:
  “This is to me the content equivalent of the government shutdown that we’ve just been living through.” – Ann Berry, [06:48]
• On Dillard’s Culture:
  “This to me is a really interesting one. It’s a story of a retailer that’s known for providing great customer service... family run culture has worked for it.” – Ann Berry, [11:18]
• On QQQ Vote:
  “I haven’t been nudged this much since Duolingo’s little green owl was nagging me to get back to my language homework.” – Ann Berry, [16:14]
• On Verizon CEO Removal:
  “Bertolini went to say explicitly losing 30% share is an issue... the board needed to act and we did.” – Ann Berry quoting Mark Bertolini, [20:11]

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |----------------|-------------------------------------------| | 00:00–04:08 | UFC, TKO, Polymarket—Prediction Markets | | 04:08–09:30 | Disney Earnings & Strategy | | 09:30–12:56 | Dillard’s Surprise Retail Performance | | 12:56–15:02 | Cisco Earnings and IoT Growth | | 15:39–18:46 | QQQ ETF Structure & Voting | | 18:46–19:28 | Market Wrap and NBC Sports Channel | | 19:28–21:01 | Verizon Boardroom Drama & Layoffs |

Episode Tone & Takeaways

Ann Berry’s approach is conversational yet incisive, blending analytic rigor with relatable, investor-focused commentary. The episode is notable for its blend of under-the-hood market mechanics, industry disruption narratives (Polymarket/UFC, brave new world of prediction markets), and frank, personal takes on blue-chip stock underperformance (Disney).

Best for: Investors curious about the intersection of finance, new technology, and shifting business models in established industries. If you missed it, the summary above hits all the high notes!