Brew Markets — SCOTUS Rules on Trump Tariffs & Inside the Software Stock Sell-off

Podcast: Brew Markets
Date: February 23, 2026
Host: Anne Barry
Key Guest: Amanda Whalen, CFO of Klaviyo

Episode Overview

This episode tackles two major stock market stories of the day:

1. The Supreme Court’s Ruling on Trump-era Tariffs:
   A landmark decision overturns the President’s expansive use of tariff powers, with immediate impacts on U.S. trade dynamics and market responses.

2. The Ongoing Software Stock Sell-off Amid AI Fears:
   Anne Barry interviews Amanda Whalen (CFO, Klaviyo) to gain an insider perspective on how software companies, especially those in marketing automation, are weathering investor anxiety about AI disruption.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. SCOTUS Strikes Down Broad Presidential Tariff Powers

[00:16–05:33]

• Background:
  The Supreme Court ruled (6–3) that President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs is not legal.

  • Small businesses, like Learning Resources Inc. (Illinois), had challenged the legality, citing economic harm to the 97% of U.S. importers who are small businesses.

• Legal Reasoning:

  • IEEPA was intended for addressing national emergencies, not as a tool for broad tariff policy.
  • Constitutionally, Congress—not the President—holds the power to lay and collect tariffs and duties.
  • “Such significant economic policy decisions require explicit congressional authorization.” (Anne Barry, [01:42])

• Immediate Aftermath:

  • President Trump quickly pivoted, announcing a global 15% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This has never before been invoked and may face legal challenges.
  • The market’s reaction was muted—volatility, but largely anticipated.
  • Uncertainty remains: especially around whether $130 billion in now-illegal tariffs should be refunded to businesses. The Supreme Court did not rule on refunds, opening the door for more litigation.

Notable Quote:

“We’re back to uncertainty on the tariffs front when it comes to what a long-term policy may look like. But what does seem certain is that the Trump administration is not going to let this go and will keep pushing to keep its tariffs in place.” — Anne Barry ([04:28])

2. Market Movers: Earnings Snapshots

[05:33–07:29]

• AMC Entertainment ([05:55])

  • Q4 revenue down 10% YoY due to lower theater attendance.
  • CEO optimistic for a strong 2026 slate.

• PayPal ([06:22])

  • Shares surged 5.5% amid takeover rumors, despite years of underperformance and leadership shakeups.

• Domino’s Pizza ([07:04])

  • Shares up nearly 3% on strong earnings and a 6.4% YoY revenue boost.

3. The Software Sell-off: Inside the Storm

[07:29–27:38]

Market Overview

• Software stocks have been battered by AI-related fears, with big names like Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow, AppLovin, Datadog, and Workday undergoing sharp declines. IBM fell 11% after Anthropic’s Claude code product threatened its core data business; cybersecurity stocks like CrowdStrike also suffered.

Key Points:

• The perceived existential risk of generative AI is unnerving investors.
• Even companies posting strong financials are seeing their stocks slide.

Amanda Whalen Interview: Klaviyo’s Response

About Klaviyo & Current Business Climate ([09:21])

• Klaviyo powers marketing automation for nearly 200,000 consumer businesses.
• Strong Q4:
  • 30% revenue growth,
  • Expanding margins,
  • Higher revenues per message due to more targeted, AI-driven campaigns.

Quote:

“Business is incredibly strong... It was an incredibly strong quarter for Klaviyo in Q4 with 30% revenue growth.” — Amanda Whalen ([09:59])

Shifts in Customer Engagement

• Clients are shifting from mass-email “blasting” to highly-targeted outreach.
• Focus is on engaging loyal, high-value customers, especially during key retail periods.
• Targeted communication yields better results:

  “During Q4, they sent messages to a smaller but much more highly engaged group of customers... which triggered higher revenue per message.” — Amanda Whalen ([10:34])

Differentiation in a Crowded Market ([13:12])

• Klaviyo’s advantage: Data-driven intelligence loop, ingesting 3.7 billion data points per day.
• Claims more precise engagement than main competitors (Mailchimp, Attentive), even as channels like SMS and WhatsApp become noisier.
• The focus: Personalized, relevant communication that builds strong, loyal relationships.

ChatGPT, LLMs, and Customer Relationship Disintermediation ([14:58–16:50])

• Partnering with LLMs (e.g., ChatGPT) is viewed as a positive, not a threat.
• LLM-based purchases give brands new discovery pathways but still allow the brand to "own" the relationship post-first purchase.

Quote:

“So the way that we see it for our customers is that it levels the playing field... with LLM they now have more of an opportunity to be discovered, to be found, to get that initial first sale and then to turn that into an ongoing loyal repeat customer relationship.” — Amanda Whalen ([16:30])

Shopify Relationship & Concentration Risk ([18:34–22:53])

• 78% of ARR comes from customers also using Shopify.
• Shopify is a major partner and investor.
• Klaviyo is expanding into other ecosystems (Salesforce, WooCommerce, PrestaShop, Shopware), but management views concentration as a strength, not a primary risk.
• As Klaviyo moves further upmarket and internationally, more revenue comes from non-Shopify partners.

SMBs, AI Threat, and Investor Messaging ([24:39–27:28])

• Some analysts worry that small and mid-sized customers might defect to free/cheap AI tools as generative LLMs improve, increasing churn risk.
• Amanda Whalen’s pitch:
  • AI is an accelerant, not existential threat, for Klaviyo.
  • Quality, ease-of-use, and automation allow time-starved SMBs to achieve better open and revenue rates (e.g., one customer saw 50% higher open rates and 40% higher average revenue per campaign using Klaviyo’s agent).
  • Larger customers want a unified customer journey and trust Klaviyo’s data integration.

Quote:

“The key message for our teams internally and for investors is that AI is an accelerant to our business... For Klaviyo, AI is accelerating our business and we are very uniquely positioned here to win.” — Amanda Whalen ([25:44–26:45])

Memorable Moments & Speaker Quotes

• On uncertain trade policy:

  “What has not been mapped out is the logistics of consumers and businesses seeking possible refunds for the estimated $130 billion generated by the now no go tariffs.” — Anne Barry ([03:54])

• On consumer data and engagement:

  “We actually ingest 3.7 billion data points per day about the way that consumers are interacting with brands.” — Amanda Whalen ([13:17])

• On the role of partnerships:

  “Shopify is doing a great job of winning in the market... what we also see is that Shopify is doing a great job of winning in the market. So regularly customers will join Klaviyo with one platform and shift over to Shopify as they think about what is that tech stack going to take them forward.” — Amanda Whalen ([20:54])

• On LLMs as an opportunity:

  “It actually amplifies and increases our ability to have an impact... it levels the playing field.” — Amanda Whalen ([15:44–16:30])

Key Timestamps

• 00:16–05:33 — Supreme Court Tariff Ruling & Immediate Market/Political Response
• 05:55–07:29 — AMC, PayPal, and Domino’s Earnings Snapshots
• 07:29–09:21 — AI Panic Drives Software Sell-off
• 09:21–17:22 — Klaviyo CFO Amanda Whalen: Interview, AI, and the Reality for Software Companies
• 18:34–22:53 — Shopify Partnership, Diversification, and Ecosystem Growth
• 24:39–27:28 — AI Competition, SMB Risks, and Messaging to Teams/Investors

Takeaways

• The Supreme Court decision is a dramatic but anticipated limit on presidential trade powers; market response is cautious as policy uncertainty drags on.
• The software sector is experiencing a sharp correction, fueled by fears that generative AI will upend business models—regardless of strong current financial performance.
• Klaviyo’s strategy hinges on using AI to deepen customer relationships across platforms, betting that complexity and data integration will trump the commoditization of basic marketing tools.
• Partnerships (especially with Shopify) are both an opportunity and a long-term strategic challenge.
• The episode’s tone remains brisk, conversational, and focused on providing practical insight amidst headline volatility.

For those who missed it:
This episode is a smart primer on what the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling means for markets and a thoughtful, transparent inside look at how a fast-growing SaaS business is navigating seismic technological and investor shifts.