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Ann Barry
Hear that?
John Coteau
That's me in Tokyo learning to make
J.B. McKenzie
sushi from a master. How did I get here?
John Coteau
I invested wisely. Now the only thing I worry about is using too much wasabi. Get where you're going with spy, the world's most traded etf. Getting there starts here with State Street Investment Management.
J.B. McKenzie
Before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Visit state street.comim for prospectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully. SPY Subject to risks similar to those of stocks. All ETFs are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal. Alps Distributors Inc.
Ann Barry
Distributor Prediction Markets From a regulatory tug of war to the debate over whether it's investing or betting, today's money mover gives us inside look at how it's all playing out. Dave and Buster's built around play. But the numbers aren't looking so fun. At the chain of adult arcades, we survey the latest earnings. And of course, SpaceX, fresh off its record breaking IPO and already making major moves. We break down its $60 billion acquis position and what it signals about life as a public company for Tuesday, June 16, it's Blue Markets Daily and I'm Ann Barry. More market details to come. But first, life as a public company is definitely back in vogue after years of private companies just getting bigger and bigger outside the gaze of post IPO life, SpaceX is already proving why liquidity wins. Elon Musk's giant announcing to today it's buying Cursor, the wildly popular AI coding platform, in a deal valued at roughly $60 billion. While the move signals that SpaceX's ambitions now stretch far beyond rockets and satellites big ambitions in and of themselves, and deeper into the race to dominate artificial intelligence. Cursor, developed by Startup Any Sphere, has become a favorite tool among software developers by using artificial intelligence to write, edit and debug code. It was founded just four years ago and the company reportedly surpassed a billion dollars in annualized revenue. As demand for AI powered coding tools exploded, analysts say Cursor could Strengthen Grok, the AI model developed by Xai and which became part of SpaceX earlier this year. Well, the acquisition stems from a partnership announced earlier this year that gave SpaceX the option to buy Cursor outright. And today that option became reality with the all stock transaction expected to close later in 2026. And it's that one little phrase, all stock, that really caught my eye here. Because now as a public company, SpaceX has stock with evaluation that all can see, not hidden in the vague rise of Private company marks and cursor employees as a result can see direct line of sight to a monetization event. Receiving stocks that are publicly traded and so they know they can sell them one day relatively soon. Not something that's clear with shares in private businesses. While SpaceX investors clearly delighted to hear on the news stock up over 10% today, we're coming up in a moment to spin through the headlines that are moving through the markets today, including earnings out of Dave and Buster's and Pizza Hut's exodus from Yum. But first, this episode is brought to you by Aflac. John, have you ever heard of a $1,000 problem?
John Coteau
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Ann Barry
A problem that can lead to financial stress. And studies suggest that stressed workers are more likely to be distracted at work.
John Coteau
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Ann Barry
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John Coteau
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Ann Barry
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Ann Barry
Well, later in the show, an inside look at prediction markets. But for now, a few headlines from today's trading session. Kicking things off with one of the last Q1 earnings reports to trickle in. And it wasn't such a fun one. Shares in Dave and Buster's. That's ticker play. Trading almost 5% lower today after the company reported. Also a 5% drop. That's in that magic metric. Same store sales. This is a 13th straight quarter of declines for the adult arcade train. That's this. Trying to get back to basics, focusing on food, drinks and games. Yet here we are.
John Coteau
Right? And Ann, here we are. When a thunderstorm blew through Manhattan over the weekend, a friend and I took shelter in the Times Square. Dave and Busters. It was revamped. It had a ton of TVs playing the World Cup. My beer was $5. My buddy's seltzer from the tap also $5. Shares in D&B are down 65% over the past 12 months. Staying with food and beverage. Yum Brands is officially parting ways with Pizza Hut. The the restaurant giant announced it will sell its pizza business in a deal worth $2.7 billion. Private equity firm Longridge Capital will acquire most of Pizza Hut's operations, while Yum China will purchase the chain's mainland China business.
Ann Barry
Well, the move comes after Yum launched a strategic review of Pizza Hut last year. That's as the brand struggled to keep pace with faster growing siblings Taco Bell and kfc. And investors are pretty pleased that some of that weight is now coming off shares of Yum ticker YUM trading around 2% higher today on the news. Well, let's take a quick break and when we come back, a look inside prediction markets in today's Money Mover segment. John, have you ever captured anything in a bottle?
John Coteau
I once tried to make one of those little ships in one.
Ann Barry
Well, capturing market opportunities can feel like capturing lightning in a bottle. And what if you had the tech and data to capture it the moment it strikes?
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J.B. McKenzie
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John Coteau
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Ann Barry
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Stock up and save big big on shoes, tops, dresses, accessories and more must haves for summer. Join the nordiclub to unlock exclusive discounts. Shop new arrivals first and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite Rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack. It's Tuesday, meaning it's Money Mover Day and today's topic is one that we haven't explored much on the show yet and that is prediction markers. Well, investors are now using prediction markets to take positions on everything from Fed rate cuts to the price of crude oil by the end of the day to even the next jobs report. So to give us some insight into how this is all playing out, I welcome to the show J.B. mcKenzie, Vice President and general manager of futures and prediction markets at Robinhood, where JB Spent more than a decade running active trader businesses at big companies like Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade before joining Robinhood, giving him a unique perspective on both traditional futures trading and today's prediction markets. Well, we get into 15 minute contracts, the regulatory turf war. And one fundamental question. Are prediction markets a legitimate asset class or simply a sophisticated form of betting? Well, we have J.B. macKenzie, Vice President and General Manager of futures and prediction markets at Robin Hood, JB Here we are, just for context. We're filming on the Monday after a White House announcement came out saying that an agreement has been struck to have an extended ceasefire between the United States and Iran. And that's an important moment for the markets. It's also one of these moments that prediction markets tend to weigh in on. So can you just give us a little bit of flavor, JB for the kinds of volumes that you see on the Robinhood platform in the prediction markets, when you see events like this being announced, like, what do you see in terms of surges of activity?
J.B. McKenzie
Well, first of all, thanks for having me on. I appreciate it. And look, I will tell you, there is no question that prediction markets, like many other products, when there is a major change in geopolitical announcements such as this, we see tremendous amount of interest to jump into the market. So when I say jump in, suddenly there's an engagement opportunity because the markets are moving, because volatility has now changed. What we're seeing here, for example, in the price of crude oil and seeing where it will be by the end of today, we saw a very large number of investors come into it because what they started to say themselves was, does the Strait of Hormuz open up? Does the flow of crude oil now increase, therefore now changing the prices? And so what we started to see was a movement for price of crude oil moving above 80 or $82 to now just above 80 start to come in there. And then you start to see that price inflection start to come into the marketplace, just like you'd expect to see out of the futures markets where this type of news obviously drove prices for crude oil into, into a, a down direction.
Ann Barry
So can you just talk a little bit, JB about the evolution here? I'm looking at your background, I'm looking at your bio, which is on the Robinhood website. You were at Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade for almost 12 years in the active trade organization. So you spent a big chunk of your career and what I'm going to call the more conventional financial markets when we take this particular instance, which is what's going to happen with commodity prices? Why are those on the Robinhood platform choosing to make a statement about where they think things will go using a prediction markets product instead of using a pretty mature and well functioning commodities futures set of products. Why are they choosing the newer product versus the alternative?
J.B. McKenzie
You know, it's funny, you're right. I'm a traditional markets futures trader for the vast majority of my career. But what I did find is when I started investing, really the focus for retail investors was on equities and ETFs and then options started coming in because it was a more advanced type of a product. Right. It'll let you actually use options to in many ways trade, let's say a more precise type of strategy because you could do a strangle or a straddle, you could do a call or a put futures, same sort of thing where you could actually pick something like crude oil. What I find with prediction markets it actually takes it down another level making it means smaller. So right now instead of buying a crude oil contract that doesn't expire for the next couple of weeks, you could actually trade a crude contract that expires today, tomorrow even shorter. So when the duration becomes more exact, it allows you as an investor to be able to utilize that more specifically to the strategy that you're looking to trade. Right. There are probably some people out there that heard the news today and said, you know what, now they got, you know, a couple of weeks to come up and bang out the plan of what it'll be and come to a decision. Well, I don't necessarily believe it's going to happen. So they may want to look and say to themselves I want to go pick a contract where I think news will come into play but I want to, I want to specify the date. So to me what prediction markets allow you to do is be very, very exact on a duration or a timeframe for a specific product. And the other thing is the product is only about the price of crude. It doesn't have anything else that's associated with it. It doesn't talk about whether or not the, it's looking at just that price level. It's not looking at something else that may have a different type of ancillary impact to it. Let's say like inflation costs or something else. It's really looking at just what is the price of crude is going to be above or below. And I'm just looking here right now, yeah, 80 spot 99 or above 81 spot 99. And you know 22% is the belief it'll be above 80 but only 11% above 81.99. So there's a real interesting dynamic there where about, you know, it really thinks it's Just going to basically go just above $80 but not get above 82.
Ann Barry
So what are other kinds of events that are specific to the financial markets that drives a lot of activity. So another example, the Fed, right? What happens when we see a Fed decision do give us a flavor of kind of the top five, three to five financial or economic events that you see a lot of activity coming about of as a result.
J.B. McKenzie
So the Fed is a great, great one. And I, I love to tell the story because I think it also tells, tells people sort of what it is for how prediction markets can be used. And what I'll use is back in September I was sitting at my kitchen table and my daughter, who's a freshman in high school was looking and saw we had the Amazon Alexa up and it had my name come across and it said, you know, Mackenzie talking about the probability of a Fed rate cut. And she looked at me and she said, hey dad, what is that? And so I explained to her that there was a prediction market that had an approximately 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed. So she of course asked me a question like, what do you mean by the Fed? And I went into my sort of government issued back in high school, walking through, well, the Fed is the unofficial fourth branch. It takes care of monetary and fiscal policy and the impact. So she's looking there and says to me, okay, so you're telling me there's an 80% chance that they're going to do this cut? I said yes. She's like, so if you trade that or you bet it what she said and her Lingo, because she's 14, she said there's a 20% chance that you're, that you can win. And if it happens, I said yes. And she goes, oh wow, that seems like simple probability. I literally walked away as like the most proud parent in the whole entire world because I felt as though I just had an economic conversation and government one. But what really occurred from it was the next day she asked me what happened. And the reason I tell the story is because that created engagement. That's exactly what we see. The Fed is a perfect example of where we see a large increase of traders that come into the marketplace around the time of the Fed rate cut. Because what they've now done is they take in all the various information that's been out there in the marketplace, they've looked at the dot plot that the Fed releases, they've listened to the various news stories that have come through and then what they've Done is they've taken that and then now they're taking a decision. And if you think about traditional markets, there's no market you can take that then trade in that actually is explicitly about the Fed. So that is tremendously one that's increases on there, another one that increases that we see code of interest is around jobs reports, both the weekly as well as the monthly, also incredibly popular. Just over a week and a half ago or so the June jobs report came in higher than expected. Again same sort of opportunity. So these economic numbers become very, very powerful. The other ones that become is when we of economics not just here in the US So when you go internationally speaking now you have a lot of these products that talk about what will the bank of England do, what will bank of Japan do. So these major, major banks that are making decisions federally about what is going to have an impact and then where does that trickle down effect. So those areas are very popular for trading. The other two I'll highlight very quickly is Bitcoin. A lot of movement in bitcoin and volatility over that and other cryptocurrencies. And what we have seen is tremendous interest in people trading the 15 minute Bitcoin or in some cases Ethereum contracts because they may have an opinion of the direction of bitcoin but they may not want to actually own it or sell the coin, the digital asset that they have. So they actually trade into it many times during the day, which is very engaging. And then finally, before we move on
Ann Barry
though, Jason, why 15 minutes? That's such a specific window. Just explain, explain why that particular duration, if you don't mind.
J.B. McKenzie
Yeah, it's because of the volatility. Right. So a lot of people look and have the interest in there. So we offer daily, we offer hourly and we offer 15 minute. And what we've noticed is similar to the interest from zero dated options, you have a shorter duration. People are more interested. Now they don't necessarily trade every single 15 minute window, but usually what they'll do is they'll look at some component or some time, part of it in that hour and say, you know what, this is where I want to trade it. Really what they're looking for in my opinion is what they believe are price inefficiencies that have come into the market. So they're probably looking at an overall chart of bitcoin and saying wait a second, this doesn't seem right to me. This is either too high or too low. And that's when they look to take action and they either jump in or out of that marketplace.
Ann Barry
Got it. And you had another one you were about to talk about. There's one more.
J.B. McKenzie
Yeah, the last one is actually it's around elections. And the reason why elections become important is because the output of elections are into many times economic policy or have impacts to the overall direction that we may see regulation or in some cases, what the expectation is for certain markets. So right now we see a lot of interest around what's going to happen in the midterms, because the question that then comes into play is how would that alter or how would that adjust our policy, both domestically and globally? And in many cases, what you're seeing is it impacts other areas. Again, thinking of the inflation question, you start to see people interested in saying, well, I think inflation may or may go up or may go down because government spending may go up and go down. Doing that, based on what they're seeing in some of these elections that are starting to come through in the primaries.
Ann Barry
Can we talk about stock prices? And I'd love, if you don't mind, if you could clarify what the regulations allow prediction markets to do, but also not do. So, for example, we just had the SpaceX IPO, right. In that instance, what were people allowed to take contracts in when it comes to that specific IPO and prediction markets, and what were they not able to do?
J.B. McKenzie
Yeah, so that's a very, very interesting and a tricky one. And so what they were able to do and what we offer is the ability to trade on the number of launches that SpaceX expects to have in the month of June, as well as the total year. So we do something allows you on a monthly basis, but also the grand total for the year. Now, that is very specific to actually the function of the company. What you're not able to do right now, there is not regulatory clarity is over whether or could have actually done something on the price of the IPO or any of the specific financials or KPIs. Now, those products, we think, are incredibly interesting to retail investors. However, similar to what happened with crypto a number of years ago, we need to see whether or not that's going to be highlighted under what's called a security swap versus where we are trading, which are commodity swaps. And so the commodity swaps are regulated by the CFTC and are supposed to be associated very much with those of a commodity, which are defined in various asset classes. But those were single issuers, such as SpaceX. Those many cases could fall under the jurisdiction of the sec, which has a different set of requirements around them. So what we're hoping to see is some clarity come out of the Joint Commission that's been put into place between the SEC and the CFTC so that we can get an idea of where these products could live. And then what we'll do is once that decision is made from a regulatory standpoint, you know, we look forward to trying to offer those products out to our end customers.
Ann Barry
So. And do you have a sense for what the timing for that is going to be? Because when it comes to the pre production markets industry, this is a big sort of gating point, Right? So what's going on right now? Are those conversations in process? Is there a timeline that's being contemplated? What is the landscape for getting some clarity on this?
J.B. McKenzie
So we've been speaking to both sides and providing them our input and really in many ways we're agnostic. Right. We just want clarity. We feel as though clarity is critical because that then allows us to take action and then we can deliver a product to our end customers. What we do think that's important is that there is clear lines between whom is the regulator, because if there's any ambiguity that then causes issues. And I think what you then see is those products then move to unregulated areas like offshore. So for us, we believe this should be onshore under the regulation of either the FCCC or the CFTC. My personal belief is that this will occur sooner than later because the market is just moving so fast and that people are very interested in it. And I think that both the SEC and the CFTC understand that. And so other people like ourselves are asking them. Again, we're providing input as to why we think it can work. And we think the Joint Commission is a really good tool for this to actually be able to get solved in because it has leaders from both sides there together to kind talk through what their concerns or questions should be.
Ann Barry
I want to ask a cheeky question and I'm going to do that by using an example that's not stock price related because I understand that sensitive given the conversations that are happening. But it's really tried to get behind something that I think is more than semantics, which is this idea of a bet versus an investment. And let's go back to the Fed example that you provided. You talked about folks being able to engage in specific contracts. Will the Fed cut rates or not? Right. You've got a binary outcome. It's happening in a very specific time frame in traditional markets, which is where I come from. Where you come from, the Question. The engagement is about something broader, which is if the rates are cut by the Fed, the implications are X for mortgages or Y for Treasuries or Z for something else. Right? The it's not the wager, it's not a bet. But the consequences of the rate cut is ultimately what the market is interested in, right? So if I were to make this very simplistic, I would say that the latter, which is trying to understand what the rate cut is because the consequences have impact for the market is what traditional investors are looking at versus the rate cut itself in a specific time is where folks have said no, that's actually just betting, right? That's not about hedging, that's not a financial instrument, that's just an entertainment based bet. What do you say to that and does it matter?
J.B. McKenzie
So I think it's a really interesting question. I also think that the term bet has a negative connotation in the United States that it doesn't necessarily have globally. And what I mean by that is we just assume that something that is bet on, you're choosing a drug, is gambling, it has to be. And I think if you actually look at how people are trading these prediction markets, they're not just sort of closing their eyes and deciding, let me just go put like a casino game. Many most people, including myself, who use these markets, I'm looking for an opportunity of price inefficiency where I think that it's below or above where it should be. And then I'm taking action with it. Which by the way is exactly what I've done for the last 20 years of my career. I think the question of what is the duration of the outcome of the product of the event, like the Fed rate cut. I think traditional mindset is well, the Fed rate cut is going to happen, therefore the price of gold will go down, Treasuries will go down and so forth. I think what happens is that that was a great way of looking at it and is a great way to look at investments. I think when you look at true investors today though, they don't have necessarily that same mindset. Many investors now have that zero dated option focus where they're looking what is going be the price of a stock by the close today, you know, or they're not and they're not necessarily using the all the way out in all of their investments. They're saying in some cases I want to take a very short term specific view in the marketplace. And in many ways what they're saying is, you know, Take one of the most highly traded products out there. Talking about Tesla, right? Most of its trading is in zero dated options on a daily basis because people have a belief of that price is going to be above or below where it started for that day. And I think now there's nothing wrong with that investment idea and there's nothing wrong with doing it now with any investment strategy you have. I don't think you should be 100% on zero dated and I don't think you should be 100% on long dated, right? Because you're imbalanced in there. And so for me, when I look at that, this is just another asset class and another product that people can use. And I think what you're starting to see in less than 12 months is it's really starting to evolve in creating product that people hadn't really been thinking about but actually allows them to trade that actual specific event in its entirety very, very cleanly that it couldn't do once before.
Ann Barry
So I just, again, just to push on the semantics a bit and I really appreciate you engaging in this dialogue, jb, because there are lots of questions out there. I'm going to challenge the use of the word asset class a little bit and here's, I'm going to use an example to paint a picture of why. Let's go back to the SpaceX example. And again, this is an offer right now, but let's say it goes there. So this is a little bit forward looking, right? And let's not use SpaceX because it's just so recent. Let's take a Walmart stock, right? As of right now, if you believe that Walmart stock is underpriced and you think therefore that the stock should go up, you can buy a Walmart share. A share in Walmart, right? And if you're wrong and it goes the other way, you at least still own something. You own the share and at some point in the future the price of it may go back up. If instead the day comes when you can go and buy a prediction markets contract and you say, I think that the Walmart stock should in fact be 10% higher as of tomorrow, and you're wrong, that's it, your money's gone boom. You don't own anything, right? So, so a question for you. Is this is really an asset, Is this really an asset class? Because the end of the day you don't really own something once your cash has left your account.
J.B. McKenzie
Well, that's basically the same structure as an option.
Ann Barry
Yeah, I agree, I agree. I Agree.
J.B. McKenzie
And so I think this is just a different way of trading. I mean again it's very often looked as being a binary option. So I think in this case or in many cases of futures too, not all futures are physically delivered. Some are cash settled as well. So the way I view this is more it's a cash settled product in which you have a belief that something's going to change. Now many times when people would be looking at, let's say using that Walmart as your example, they're looking at other, let's say events that may or may not impact the stock that are maybe not as traditional as we would once think. Right. So while they may not be looking at earnings as the only example, they may be looking at something that may be a correlation to it but they think may have a more direct impact. Especially let's take like something like Walmart, big international brand as well, it's got a services group, it's got its E commerce. They may be looking at the E commerce commerce world and saying hey look, the spend is on there. Maybe it's not gonna have this enormous impact on Walmart like it's going to drive it as up, up or down as much as 15 or 20% but maybe it's gonna have an impact where it changes it for call it 2, 4 or 5 cents. And in their mind that trade is a more valuable trade for them to be very specific on that, that strategy versus saying hey look I want to go buy the stock because the disadvantage of owning that stock also is you're going to end up paying and having to hold margin associated with it. Right. So again it's how do you want to use your cat, your capital? Is it more efficient it in the form of a prediction market, let's say this came up the road or using it in the straight equity market or the option market. Again all of them are great opportunities and different ways to kind of diversify or use different asset classes. But that's the reason why I think using as an asset class is a proper term. Now again, very, very early and I had the same argument with people with crypto, you know, five to seven years ago where they're like this isn't, this isn't an asset class. And now all of a sudden we've moved on and we're willing to accept that the vast majority of the digital assets that people trade fall within, within that sort of digital asset class. Asset class.
Ann Barry
Let's talk about sports. This is a fun one. We're hot off, at least I'M hot off the back of the Knicks having just had a huge win this weekend, which was exciting. Talk to us about the way in which prediction market products are being used for sports on the Robinhood platform specifically. Which is interesting because we think of Robinhood as really, you know, such a pioneer when it comes to opening up financial instruments for folks. Why sports and why on Robinhood?
J.B. McKenzie
Well, first off, I think that sports as an industry has incredibly infiltrated every part of our economy. And if you really look across the board, whether it's McDonald's or it's Nike, even banks are now using sports in a variety of different ways to prop up their brands. So I think sports, while in itself may feel like this sort of world where traditional gambling occurred, the fact of the matter is the amount of money that is utilized to get brand recognition and to have it as part of the overall ecosystem or the economic system, I think is tremendously increased over the last three, five and 10 years. And so with that, what we feel as though is it has a direct impact and for our goal at Robinhood is to be the number one, you know, financial app. But we want you to be the one place where it's a super app, right? Where whatever you want to trade, you can do it from your, from your, from your Robinhood account. And so what we did was we built out what we think is a very streamlined, very straightforward and very transparent product where you can actually trade a true market, right? So the markets that you're trading on have buyers and sellers on both sides. There is no conflict. Robinhood is not the other side of the trade. We do nothing more than provide access, just like we do for equities, options and futures and crypto. So we allow that transparent pricing, transparent, transparent market creation. But also from a pricing standpoint, we've taken down that friction. So it makes it easier for someone to be able to access the market and not have to pay exorbitant fees. They can enter and exit it. And what we have found is that the, the result has been tremendous, right? Prediction markets as a whole is the fastest growing product that Robinhood has ever offered. It continues to grow. And we see things like the Next Game where you've seen markets move tremendously on those. I mean, they're, they're like the cardiac kids, right? They, they go down in the fourth quarter by 15 or 20 and they work their way back and people highly are engaged watching that tr, watching that play in real time. And we, you know, to see that expand into other types of sporting events. So I think sports is definitely here to stay from an interest level for our clients. And what we want to do is create that great experience so they can do it from our platform and if they choose to not do it, they have the ability to opt out. So if you're not interested in trading sports at Robinhood, you can click a single button and it goes away from your platform and you can use it for other traditional investments. So really what we want to do is give optionality to people because every investor is different. So wherever they want to put their trade, where their trading activity occurs, we want it to happen through Robinhood.
Ann Barry
Well, it's going to be a big season to see adoption levels with the World cup right now upon us. So come back, love to hear frankly what whether they were right, what you saw in terms of some of the activity, whether some of those predictions actually did materialize. And there's a lot going on. So thanks for your time. Look forward to having you back.
J.B. McKenzie
Great. Thanks a lot for having me.
Ann Barry
Well, huge thanks to JB for joining us. And some news coming out of Robin Hood after we spoke with jb, we filmed yesterday because the company announced today that it's laying off about 10% of its workforce, representing roughly 290 jobs. Robinhood noted it is taking these actions while the business is strong, citing record average daily trading volumes across equities, options and of course prediction markets so far in June. We're going to keep on watching that. Well, it's 4:00pm on the east Coast. There it is, the closing bell. The market's wrapping up for the day and we don't have a ticker tape so we're throw it over to our human ticker. Our producer John.
John Coteau
That's right. With the Dow hitting another record high, up 6/10 of a percent to 51,999. The S& P down half a percent for the day. And the NASDAQ giving back some of Yesterday's gains down one and a tenth today, SpaceX easing down near the close of the day, finishing up nearly 5%.
Ann Barry
That's it for today's Brew Markets Daily.
John Coteau
Brew Markets Daily is hosted by Anne Barry and produced by John Coteau. Tarkab Dalatif. Avani Laroya and Emily Mellon aren't our tentacle directors. You channel Brittany to talk, who is our audio engineer and the president of Morning Brew Inc. Is Devin Emery.
Ann Barry
Wake up tomorrow with the Morning Brew newsletter and tune in to Neil and Toby on Morning Brew Daily. We'll see you back here tomorrow same time, same place. Well, huge thanks to JB for joining us. And some news coming out of Robin Hood after we spoke with jb. We filmed yesterday because the company announced today that it's laying off about 10% of its workforce, representing roughly 290 jobs. Jobs. Robinhood noted it is taking these actions while the business is strong, citing record average daily trading volumes across equities, options and, of course, prediction markets so far in June. We're going to keep on watching that. Well, it's 4:00pm on the east Coast. There it is, the closing bell. The market's wrapping up for the day and we don't have a ticker tape, so we'll throw it over to our human ticker. Our producer, John.
In this episode of Brew Markets, host Ann Barry delves into three timely market stories:
[00:29 – 03:15]
Quote:
"It's that one little phrase, 'all stock,' that really caught my eye here. Because now as a public company, SpaceX has stock with a valuation all can see... not hidden in the vague rise of private company marks."
— Ann Barry [01:36]
[03:54 – 05:05]
Anecdote:
"When a thunderstorm blew through Manhattan ... we took shelter in Times Square Dave and Buster’s. It was revamped ... my beer was $5, my buddy’s seltzer also $5."
— John Coteau [04:26]
[06:20 – 31:22]
[08:17]
Quote:
"When there is a major change in geopolitical announcements ... we see a tremendous amount of interest to jump into the market."
— J.B. McKenzie [08:19]
[10:05]
[12:12]
Quote:
"The Fed is a perfect example where we see a large increase of traders ... no market you can take that then trade that actually is explicitly about the Fed. So that is tremendously one that increases on there."
— J.B. McKenzie [13:34]
[15:50]
[17:31 – 21:01]
Quote:
"What we’re hoping to see is some clarity come out of the joint commission... then we can deliver a product to our end customers."
— J.B. McKenzie [19:57]
[21:01 – 26:12]
Notable exchange:
Barry: "If you buy a Walmart share and you’re wrong, you still own it. In a prediction contract, if you’re wrong, your money’s gone. Is that really an asset?" [24:57]
McKenzie: "That's basically the same structure as an option … it's a cash-settled product in which you have a belief that something’s going to change." [26:07]
[28:06 – 31:04]
Quote:
"Prediction markets as a whole is the fastest growing product that Robinhood has ever offered... The result has been tremendous."
— J.B. McKenzie [29:44]
[31:22 – End]
This episode provides a timely, thorough look at how public market dynamics, rapid tech advances, and regulatory uncertainty are reshaping both Wall Street and Main Street investing – and blurring the lines between investment, speculation, and entertainment in today’s evolving markets.