Brew Markets Podcast Summary

Episode: Spotify Pops on Earnings Beat & Inside the "Software-mageddon" Sell-off
Date: February 10, 2026
Host: Ann Berry
Guest/Co-host: John Coteauto

Episode Overview

In this packed episode of Brew Markets, host Ann Berry dives into two central stories shaping the stock market headlines:

• Spotify’s upbeat Q4 earnings and the strategic innovations behind its turnaround.
• The ongoing wreckage across software stocks, dubbed "Software-mageddon," with a nuanced examination of which companies stand to lose or gain in the face of advanced AI tools, especially Anthropic’s Claude.

Berry and Coteauto offer a mix of hands-on platform analysis, market statistics, and industry anecdotes. The episode closes with rapid-fire summaries of earnings moves in companies like Harley Davidson, Hasbro, Coca-Cola, and BP, plus a whimsical look at Alphabet’s 100-year bond.

1. Spotify's Strong Q4 and Strategy Shifts

[00:32–05:49]

Key Points

• Blockbuster Q4 Numbers:
  • Revenue tops $5B.
  • Monthly Active Users: 750M+, 10% YoY jump.
• New Leadership: First earnings call for co-CEOs Alex Nordstrom and Gustav Soderstrom.
• Spotify Wrapped Drives Engagement:
  • Most successful “Wrapped” campaign ever, with 300M+ users engaged.
  • Ann’s personal fun: “It gave me a music Age of 28 years old based on my exceptionally pop heavy workout mixes.” (Ann Berry, 02:05)
• Ad-supported User Growth:
  • 476M users came in above expectations.
• Price Hikes Incoming: Premium prices are increasing in three markets, including the U.S.—strength will be tested in next quarter's retention figures.
• Record Payouts to Creators:
  • Over $11B to music creators last year, “more than any retailer in history.”
• Growth Challenges:
  • Investors keep asking how Spotify will sustain its growth, especially as it faces declines typical for non-AI-centric tech.
  • “There's been one question that's been hanging over Spotify for a while now, and that's just how it's going to sustain its growth, including with extensions beyond its core music and also podcast offerings.” (Ann Berry, 03:43)
• Innovation – Physical Books & Audio Integration:
  • New feature: scan a physical book page, pick up seamlessly with the audiobook on Spotify.
  • Partnering with independent bookstores for physical book purchases.
  • “Another sign to me at least, that the streamers, both Spotify and others, will keep leaning into the real world in order to drive their share of the digital one.” (Ann Berry, 04:53)

Notable Quote

• “Spotify stock up about 15% [in] days. A lot going on over there. We're going to keep on watching.” (Ann Berry, 05:24)

2. "Software-mageddon": The AI-Driven Tech Sell-off

[05:49–19:55]

The Market Carnage

• Roughly $1T in value wiped from S&P 500 Software & Services index in just five weeks of 2026.
• The trigger: Anthropic launches Claude cowork agent plugins, stoking fears that AI will automate huge swathes of workplace software.

Ann’s Hands-On Claude Review

• Ann spends the weekend testing Claude’s real capacities:
  • "I really do have to get my own hands dirty and dig in there." (Ann Berry, 06:37)
• Asks Claude directly: Which software company types are at most risk from tools like you?
• Results suggest a varied risk landscape, from existential threats to potential AI tailwinds.

Risk Tiers Breakdown (Based on Claude's Analysis and Hosts’ Overlay)

Tier 1: “High Disruption Risk”

Software Categories Most Vulnerable to AI Replacement

• Content Marketing, Email Automation, Basic CRM
  • HubSpot (down 70% in past year): “I can foresee a situation in which the more Claude is plugged into these other systems, the more it learns and ultimately can mimic the systems themselves.” (Ann Berry, 09:04)
  • Intuit and Mailchimp (down 34% YTD): Easy for AI to duplicate campaign personalization.
• Project Management & Workflow Coordination
  • Monday.com (down ~15% YTD), Asana (down 40% YTD): Risk of becoming a mere data layer as AI agents take over organization and coordination.
  • “If Claude and Gemini can replicate the core task management workflow, then the standalone tool becomes a data layer rather than a product people interact with daily.” (John Coteauto, 12:10)
• Design Software
  • Adobe (down 23% in 2025, further losses in 2026), Canva, Shutterstock (down 40% YOY):
    • Free AI tools cannibalize demand.
    • IPO plans (e.g., Canva) in trouble without answering the “AI growth plan” question.

Tier 2: “Moderate Disruption Risk”

AI compresses margins/value but doesn’t kill the category outright

• Enterprise CRM & Sales Automation
  • Salesforce (ticker CRM, down ~26% YTD), Freshworks (down 50% YOY):
    • Data moats may help, but competitive AI tools loom.
    • “Companies need both the data as a moat and the innovation” to exploit it. (Ann Berry, 16:19)
• HR, Payroll, Human Capital Management
  • Workday (down 30% YTD), Paycom (down 35% YOY):
    • Market unconvinced by CEO claims of insulation from AI.
    • Poor current user experiences create appetite for clever new tools.
• ERP/Enterprise Planning
  • SAP (down 25% YOY), Oracle, ServiceNow (down 50% YOY):
    • “Ripping them out is a multi year, nine-figure project.” (Ann Berry, 17:43)
    • Likely safe, but margins could suffer as AI drops development costs.

Tier 3: “Tailwind/Opportunistic”

AI-driven demand for these software types likely means growth, not loss

• Cybersecurity
  • CrowdStrike (down just 3% YOY), Palo Alto Networks.
  • “The more threats there are to cybersecurity software, the more that consumers are going to need a service like CrowdStrike.” (John Coteauto, 19:14)

Market Context & Closing Insights

• Investors split between “oversold, now is a buying opportunity” (Dan Ives at Wedbush) and “we haven’t seen the full AI wave yet—more pain ahead.”
• “AI eating the software world” remains a live thesis for ongoing market volatility.

3. Market Movers – Earnings Roundup

[20:00–26:30]

Harley Davidson (Ticker: HOG)

• Q4 sales down 10%; misses on earnings.
• Despite struggles, stock up 4% as investors eye a turnaround (new model: “Sprint,” entry price <$6,000 and global racing championship).
• “...iconic brand has die-hard fans amongst investors too.” (Ann Berry, 21:20)

Hasbro

• Stock at 4-year high after 2025 results.
• 14% full-year revenue growth, driven by “Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming” (Magic the Gathering, Monopoly Go).
• AI credited for large cost savings and expected to drive new product categories and collectibles.
• CEO: “AI tools have saved about a million billion people hours of work this year.” (Ann Berry, 23:14, referencing Hasbro CEO)

Coca-Cola

• Stock down: Lousy 2026 guidance, weak soda demand in core markets.
• Incoming CEO signals focus on low-sugar innovation, adapting to changing consumer attitudes and weight loss drug trends.

BP

• Stock hit: Suspends share buybacks, redirecting cash to cushion against weak oil prices.

Alphabet (Google)

• Issues $30B in new bonds, including a 100-year note in British pounds.
• “A sign of confidence that Google's parent is going to be around for a long time.” (Ann Berry, 26:35)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On streaming and physical books:
  • “Another sign...streamers...will keep leaning into the real world in order to drive their share of the digital one.” (Ann Berry, 04:53)
• On AI disruption in software:
  • “The more Claude is plugged into these other systems, the more it learns and ultimately can mimic the systems themselves.” (Ann Berry, 09:04)
• Skepticism on "moats":
  • “Companies need both the data as a moat and the innovation to go and actually utilize that data effectively.” (Ann Berry, 16:19)
• On cybersecurity’s AI-driven resilience:
  • “The more threats there are to cybersecurity software, the more that consumers are going to need a service like CrowdStrike…” (John Coteauto, 19:14)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:32] — Spotify Q4 earnings, user metrics & innovations
• [05:49] — "Software-mageddon": Market sell-off and AI-induced risk breakdown
• [08:35] — Deep dive into high risk sectors (content marketing, project management, design)
• [14:14] — The Canva IPO dilemma & design software’s future
• [16:07] — Moderate risk: Salesforce, Freshworks, HR & ERP software
• [19:14] — Cybersecurity: The AI beneficiary
• [20:00] — Market Movers (Harley Davidson, Hasbro, Coca-Cola, BP)
• [26:35] — Alphabet’s 100-year bond: “A sign of confidence”

Takeaways

Brew Markets Dives Head First Into:

• Spotify’s winning strategy: Blending digital with experiential, innovating in audiobooks.
• The shifting sand under software stocks: Hosts scrutinize AI’s uneven impact, using their own hands-on testing and “Claude’s” category analysis.
• Earnings volatility: Brand names from Harley to Hasbro, Coca-Cola to BP, all in the market’s crosshairs.
• The big question: Is now the time to buy battered software stocks, or is the AI flood just getting started? Packaged with memorable quotes, tangible examples, and a conversational but data-rich approach, this episode is essential listening for investors tracking tech’s next chess moves.