Brew Markets – January 15, 2026

Episode: The Founder Effect & Bank Earnings Aren't Boring!
Host: Ann Berry
Producer/Co-host: John Croteau

Episode Overview

This episode of Brew Markets, hosted by Ann Berry, delves into two major market stories:

• The outsized impact of a handful of "superstar" stocks and founder-led companies on historical market gains.
• An energetic, detailed breakdown of Q4 and FY2025 earnings from the US’s six largest banks.
  Additional segments highlight an unexpected link between weight loss drugs and airline profits, a major medical devices acquisition, and landmark deals in tech and streaming.

1. The Founder Effect: How a Tiny Fraction of Stocks Drove a Century of Gains

[00:31–05:03]

• Key Study: Ann highlights a Wall Street Journal article citing Hendrik Bessembinder’s study of all US common stocks traded from 1926–2023.
  • Only 86 stocks accounted for half the US stock market’s total gains over nearly a century.
  • All stock market gains stemmed from just the top 1,000 stocks; most others barely outperformed risk-free Treasury bills.

“96% of all US public stocks in this history collectively returned the equivalent of one month treasury bill yields. ... When we think about all the work that goes into stock picking, all the energy that goes into following the roller coaster, a long period of time, that's what it boils into.” — Ann Berry [02:13]

• Founder-Led Companies: The discussion pivots to the role of visionary founders—like Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates—and the enduring strength of founder-led companies.
  • Recent IPO structures often let founders retain outsized voting control (e.g., StubHub, EquipmentShare).
  • Performance: Jack Ablin (Crescent) found founder-led firms outpaced the S&P 500 by 167 percentage points over five years (with a tech-skewed bias).
  • Caveats: Not a universal strategy; timing and sector exposure matter (e.g., Salesforce’s stock was down 26% over the last year despite founder leadership).

“Founder-led companies have beat the S&P500 by 167 percentage points over the past five years. ... But this isn’t a universal strategy to go. ... Timing really does matter.” — Ann Berry [03:54]

2. Big Six Bank Earnings—2025 in Review

[05:46–19:34]

Ann and John creatively role-play as representatives for each of the big six US banks to highlight both shared trends and each institution’s unique story.

JP Morgan

[07:15–09:00]

• Market cap: $850B; stock up 23% in 2025.
• Earnings per share: $5.23 (beat estimates); revenue up 7% YoY.
• Profit fell 7% due to a $2.2B reserve for Apple Card loans acquired from Goldman.
• Market worried about Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit-card interest rates.
• Trading revenue (esp. equities) up 40%. Investment banking fees down 5% due to macro uncertainty delaying M&A.

“There was an expectation of increased M&A ... with tariffs and other uncertainty it led companies to delay their plans. But I am excited for 2026 because it is going to be a big year promised for IPO and M&A.” — “JP Morgan”/John [08:40]

Goldman Sachs

[09:00–12:37]

• Market cap: $204B; stock is up 60% YoY.
• EPS $14+/share; Q4 revenue $13.5B; stock at an all-time high.
• Strategic move: Dumped Apple credit card, avoiding tough new interest rate caps.
• No more GM or Apple credit cards—refocusing on core strength: institutional/corporate banking.
• #1 in M&A advisory, #2 in high-yield debt, #3 in equity capital markets for the year.
• Asset and wealth management focus: Record management fees ($11.5B) and private banking revenues up 16%.
• Recurring, 'sticky' fee streams seen as the golden ticket for future growth.

“The magic thing associated with this part of the business is ... the fee streams attached are sticky. They are recurring.” — Ann (“Goldman Sachs”) [11:06]

Bank of America

[12:37–14:40]

• Market cap: $385B; stock up 12% in 2025.
• Revenue $28B; EPS $0.98 (beats estimates).
• Equity trading revenue rose 23% amidst market volatility.
• Consumer focus: 680k new checking accounts, 4M new small business accounts in 2025, nearly $600B in consumer investment assets (up 16%).
• Sign of health: Consumer loan loss provisions down 15%.
• Stock down post-earnings—sentiment drag across the sector.

“28 consecutive quarters of net growth for your consumer checking account growth numbers. But your stock hasn’t been doing so well after your earnings results.” — Ann [14:14]

Morgan Stanley

[14:40–15:58]

• Market cap: $305B; stock up 46% YoY (nearly 6% after results).
• Revenue: $18B; earnings beat expectations.
• Superpower: Wealth/investment management—the sector’s largest at $9+ trillion in client assets.
• Wealth segment: $8B net revenue, up 11%. Also strong in M&A fees.

“The wealth management unit posted over $8 billion in net revenue, up 11% for last year. ... Total client assets ... climbed to over $9 trillion.” — Ann (“Morgan Stanley”) [15:02]

Citigroup

[15:58–17:11]

• Market cap: $215B; stock up 50% YoY (4% post-earnings).
• Revenue up 2% to $20B, EPS of $1.81 beat.
• Net income down 13% (large loss from exit of Russian ops).
• “Right-sizing” and simplification plan under CEO Jane Fraser, targeting 20k global job cuts by end-2026. Focus on streamlining, efficiency, and targeted hiring in growth areas.

“We are not graded on effort, we are judged on our results. And I expect to see the last vestiges of old bad habits fall away and a more disciplined, more confident, winning Citi emerge in 2026.” — John (“Citibank”) quoting Jane Fraser [16:40]

Wells Fargo

[17:11–19:34]

• Market cap: $280B; stock up 17% YoY, but down after latest results.
• Mixed results: Revenue from investment banking fell 1%, advisory remains weak.
• Historical mortgage leader, still recovering from fake account scandals; ongoing regulatory burdens.
• Headcount down 6%; no new clear growth strategy articulated.

“I am, I’m sort of emerging from that reputational damage, but I haven’t really found a niche. I haven’t found a superpower ... in the way that I once used to.” — Ann (“Wells Fargo”) [18:31]

3. Airlines and the Weight Loss Drug Effect

[19:34–21:44]

• Jefferies analyst report: If widespread use of GLP-1 weight loss drugs produces a 10% reduction in passenger weight, airlines could see a 1.5% drop in fuel costs (potentially boosting EPS as much as 4%).
• Biggest winners: American Airlines (nearly 12% EPS gain), United (+3.5%), Delta (+2.8%).
• Ann and John share historical anecdotes of airlines shaving ounces—lighter magazines, fewer seat monitors—to save fuel.

“A 10% reduction in average passenger weight could translate to up to 1 1/2% lower fuel costs, which ... could translate to ... as much as a 4% boost to earnings per share.” — Ann [19:44]

• Industry obsession with weight: “Every time we go to the airport and ... have our bag weighed, we know that this industry is fixated on weight.” — John [21:00]

4. Today's Market Headlines in Brief

[21:53–23:44]

• Boston Scientific (BSX) shares down 4% after announcing a $15B acquisition of Penumbra (PEN). Penumbra jumps 12% on successful clinical trial news.
• TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor): Q4 profit up 35% (beats estimates), plans to boost 2026 investment to $56B—strong signal for ongoing AI hardware buildouts. Nvidia rebounds, up 3%.
• Netflix–Sony Global Streaming Deal: Netflix and Sony ink a $7B+ worldwide licensing deal for post-theatrical streaming of Sony movies—expanding on prior regional agreements and aiming to capitalize on Sony’s K Pop Demon Hunters success.

5. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On stock concentration:

  “When we think about all the work that goes into stock picking…that's what it boils into.” — Ann [02:16]

• On founder-led companies:

  “There’s a big skew towards tech in there. ... But Berkshire Hathaway, BlackRock and Blackstone ... are examples of long-term founder-led financials.” — Ann [03:46]

• On bank earnings role-play:

  “We’re so committed to actually speaking in the voice of the bank ... we have stickers to indicate so that as we look at each other we don’t lose sight of who it is we are.” — Ann [07:06]

• On the airlines/GLP-1 story:

  “As long as they don’t cut back on snacks, because that’s what gets me through these flights.” — Ann [21:32]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |------------------------------------------------|------------------| | Stock market concentration/founder effect | 00:31–05:03 | | Big six bank earnings roundup | 05:46–19:34 | | Airlines & weight loss drug impact | 19:34–21:44 | | Market headlines recap | 21:53–23:44 |

Final Takeaway

This episode masterfully weaves vivid, character-driven storytelling with sharp, data-backed insights. Listeners get not only a sense of how a few dominant stocks (and founders) have shaped a century of market returns, but also a nuanced, personality-filled tour of each big bank’s unique quarter—before rounding out with stories that illustrate the surprising connections between innovation, health trends, and the world’s biggest corporations.

Next up: Tomorrow’s episode will feature Alex Steel breaking down global oil, gas, and energy investing—promising another deep dive into volatile, vital markets.