Brew Markets Daily: The Market’s Hidden Divide & Target and Best Buy Lead the S&P
Podcast: Brew Markets
Host: Ann Berry
Date: March 3, 2026
Episode Overview
In this episode, Ann Berry and John Coteau analyze the day’s top market movers, focusing on Target and Best Buy’s earnings results and their surprising jumps in the S&P 500. They dig into the concept of "dispersion"—the growing divide in individual stock performance beneath the seemingly calm surface of the major indices. The hosts also discuss sector reactions to Middle East conflict, activist moves in consumer tech (notably Pinterest), and other stories shaping the market. The tone combines sharp analysis, storytelling, and just enough banter to keep the energy high.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Hidden Volatility: The S&P 500’s Surface Calm, Turbulence Beneath
[02:00–05:30]
- Although the S&P 500 is up less than 1% in 2026 ("looks like it’s smooth sailing"), beneath the benchmark are "huge volatility" and wild swings among constituent stocks, a phenomenon dubbed dispersion.
- Not driven by meme stocks this time, but by established blue chips:
- Microsoft down almost 20% YTD (~$500B in market cap wiped out).
- Intuit down 37% YTD.
- SanDisk up 142% YTD but with high volatility (down 7% just today due to rising energy costs).
- “While the S&P 500 has traded within a 2.7% range up or down since January 1, the average company inside the index has moved in a band seven times wider...” (Ann Berry, [03:50])
- This dispersion is at its highest since 1994, which previously coincided with market corrections and major Fed rate hikes.
Memorable Quote
"It's the largest divergence or dispersion since 1994."
— Ann Berry [03:59]
Implications
- Some investors view dispersion as a warning signal (market correction risk); others see it as a stock picker’s paradise.
- The markers for success have changed: sometimes it’s blowout earnings, sometimes it’s just not doing as badly as expected.
2. Target and Best Buy: From Doldrums to Leaders
[05:47–13:55]
a. Target’s Earnings and Turnaround Strategy
- Ticker: TGT | Market Cap: $55B | Stock Up: ~8% today (following Q4 2025 earnings)
- Revenue of $30.5B in Q4 beat estimates, and EPS of $2.44 was 28c ahead.
- However, same-store sales declined for the 13th straight quarter (-2.5%).
- Stock still down ~50% from its 2021 high; 33% over 5 years.
- Key driver: investor hope for a turnaround under new CEO Michael Fidelke, a Target veteran who outlined growth pillars:
- Improving shopping experience: bulking up store staff (after layoffs), improving in-stock levels, refreshing layouts.
- Merchandising reboot: showcased at today's investor day with detailed store mock-ups.
- Category focus: doubling down on grocery and beauty (fast-turning, repeat purchase categories) while trimming big-ticket and long-life goods.
- Ann notes Target’s “identity crisis”—trying to move back from “all things to all people” to “strong trend-forward assortment”.
Notable CEO Quote
“Target is not an everything store. That's not what guests want from us. They want a strong trend forward assortment that they can trust to deliver quality and value.”
— Michael Fidelke, quoted by Ann Berry [11:11]
- New beauty concept ("Beauty Studio") to replace the ended partnership with Ulta; renew focus on sense of “Bougie” Target.
- Guidance: 2% net sales growth forecast for 2026—better than nothing, but not thrilling.
- Ann's take: “I personally don't find it particularly compelling. I think there are other places to go, but at least loyal Target investors saying that this feels good to us.” [13:39]
b. Best Buy’s Earnings and Evolving Identity
- Ticker: BBY | Market Cap: $13.5B | Stock Up: 7–8%
- Revenue: $13.8B Q4, down from last year but EPS of $2.61 beat by 15c.
- Full-year revenue up slightly after three years of declines.
- Same-store sales down 0.8%, but within guidance.
- Narrative of “least-bad” result—analysts and investors relieved rather than excited.
- Value proposition: Focusing on curation, not trying to be everything for everyone.
- Losing share in appliances and home theater (hit by tariffs), but growing in computing, mobile, 3D printers, collectibles, and toys—categories that drive in-store traffic and engagement.
- Noted shift by adults to collectibles, toys, and physical goods.
- Third-party digital marketplace launch in August, dramatically expanding SKU count in part to battle tariff headwinds.
Memorable Exchange
John Coteau: “When I walk by [big-box stores], I just think, who’s shopping there?”
Ann Barry: “Yes.”
— [17:05]
- Best Buy’s sales growth guidance: 1% for this quarter—again, “not as bad as expected.”
3. Market and Sector Reactions to Middle East Tensions
[19:52–22:00]
- S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq all ended down ~0.8–1%.
- Brent crude oil topped $85/barrel (highest since July 2024, up 18% in two days).
- Defense ETFs down after yesterday’s surge (Lockheed Martin off 1%).
- Gold fell, countering safe-haven expectations as inflation fears from higher oil outweigh geo-political demand for safety.
- Global equities also sold off (London down 2.3%, Germany down 3.5%, Japan down 3%).
Regional Note
- UAE stock exchanges (Abu Dhabi, Dubai) closed for two days—reopening expected tomorrow.
4. Noteworthy Corporate Moves and Headlines
[22:07–23:21]
a. Amazon Resilience
- AWS data centers in the Middle East damaged in drone attacks; AWS quickly advised clients to shift workloads to other regions. Amazon stock unaffected.
b. Pinterest & Elliott Management
- Pinterest shares (PINS) up 8% after Elliott Management disclosed a ~$1B stake (aimed primarily at buybacks).
- Pinterest stock down 27% YTD after poor Q4 results; management blames tariff-related ad pullbacks.
- Ann: “When Elliott makes a move, we like to try and keep up with it.” [22:21]
c. ON Running Apparel
- Swiss sneaker company ON (ticker ONON) shares drop 11% after sales guidance disappoints.
- Apparel now 15% of sales; segment expected to “meaningfully outpace overall growth.”
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- "The S&P 500 is like a duck floating along with gentle growth. But with frantic paddling beneath the surface..." — Ann Berry [02:55]
- “Dispersion on the flip side is getting others excited for chances to go stock picking.” — Ann Berry [04:40]
- “Ann, I was struck today that they had an investor day event that reminded me of the one that you really recently went to at Starbucks…” — John Coteau [08:47]
- “Target is getting back in the beauty game. It's doing it its own way and it's doing it with these new beauty studios…” — Ann Berry [10:24]
- “There are other places to go, but at least loyal Target investors saying that this feels good to us.” — Ann Berry [13:39]
- “Best Buy is really leaning into this idea of curation now.” — Ann Berry [14:40]
- “We’re seeing adults increasingly leaning into collectibles and physical items that you call them toys, but they’re an important part of what people are spending their time with outside the digital world.” — Ann Berry [16:25]
- “If you can’t beat them, sell their products on a third-party marketplace and join them.” — Ann Berry [17:28]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [02:00] Dispersion and undercurrents in the S&P 500
- [05:47] Target and Best Buy earnings segment begins
- [08:00] Target’s new CEO and turnaround plan
- [10:24] Target’s beauty pivot and merchandising revamp
- [12:25] Category focus: grocery & beauty (Target)
- [13:55] Best Buy earnings and shift to curation
- [15:53] Best Buy in-store categories: 3D printers, collectibles, toys
- [17:09] Best Buy’s third-party digital marketplace
- [19:52] Market wrap & sector impacts from Middle East conflicts
- [22:07] Amazon’s cloud response
- [22:21] Pinterest & Elliott Management, ON Running news
Conclusion
This episode of Brew Markets offers a sharp, insightful look into why headline index calm can mask extreme moves underneath (dispersion), and how “least bad” results can sometimes be enough to spark stock rallies during turbulent times. Through the stories of Target and Best Buy, Ann and John show how even struggling retailers can find daylight through re-focusing and small wins. Listeners gain actionable context on how macro trends, geopolitical shocks, and activism intersect to drive market narratives day-to-day.