The New Fed Playbook & Rebuilding Aging Internet Icons

Summary

Brew Markets – Episode Summary

Podcast: Brew Markets
Episode: The New Fed Playbook & Rebuilding Aging Internet Icons
Date: June 17, 2026
Host: Ann Berry

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Overview

This episode dives into two of the day’s major financial stories: the first Fed meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh and a breakdown of Bending Spoons, the Italian tech company prepping for a major U.S. IPO after snapping up icons like AOL and Evernote. The episode explores policy shifts at the Fed, market implications, and the evolution of digital conglomerates in the tech sector.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Federal Reserve Decision Day: The “New Playbook” (00:55–02:18)

• First Meeting with New Chair:
  The episode opens with sharp focus on Kevin Warsh’s inaugural Fed press conference. As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged.
• Breaking with Precedent:
  Warsh notably refused to submit a personal projection to the Fed’s “dot plot,” breaking a 14-year tradition. He criticized both the dot plot and forward guidance as not helpful to policymaking:

  "I did not submit a dot. For me, it's not helpful in the conduct of policy. I suspect by year end there'll be a review about communication broadly, press conferences, dots, meetings and the like, transcripts and minutes." — Kevin Warsh (01:12)

• Task Forces Announced:
  Warsh announced new task forces to examine:
  • The Fed’s use of its balance sheet
  • Data sources, productivity, and jobs
  • The inflation framework
• Firm Commitment to Lowering Inflation:
  Warsh emphasized the Fed’s determination:

  "The commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous and unambiguous. And that, I think, is an important message we've missed for five years and we're going to fix that." — Kevin Warsh (01:40)

2. Market Headlines: Auto Sector Shifts & Struggles (03:03–05:34)

• Carvana Moves into New Cars:
  Carvana, long known for reshaping used car retail, is opening “new car playgrounds” where customers can test-drive but must buy online (03:03).

  “This seems like an admission that folks may want to test drive a car before buying it online.” — Co-host (03:46)

• Carvana’s Market Cap:
  Now the most valuable U.S. auto retailer at ~$70B, but shares fell 8% on the day.
• CarMax Earnings:
  Carvana’s main rival saw an 8% drop in shares after reporting lower same-store sales and declining used car profits for the fourth consecutive quarter.
  New CEO Keith Barr is focused on cutting reconditioning costs, but turnaround is expected to take years (04:35).
• BMW Hits a 5-year Low:
  BMW shares dropped over 8% after cutting its profit outlook by half due to weak demand and fierce competition in China, its biggest single market (05:16).

  "China is BMW's biggest market... It's struggling on two fronts, weaker demand and fierce competition from makers like BYD." — Co-host (05:16)
  Shares of Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz also declined.

3. Spotlight: Bending Spoons & Rebuilding Digital Icons (05:34–09:49)

• IPO Filing Details:
  Bending Spoons, an Italian tech firm, has filed to go public on the NASDAQ under ticker BSP. Target: $1.5B raised, $20B valuation.
  Most of its digital products — AOL, Vimeo, Evernote, WeTransfer, Eventbrite — are U.S.-centric, making a U.S. listing logical (06:23–07:12).
• Business Model:
  Rather than developing software from scratch, Bending Spoons acquires legacy digital brands and revamps them with modern technology and new operational approaches (07:34).

  “Bending Spoons isn’t building apps, it’s buying them... not quite turnarounds, but certainly revamps.” — Host (07:34)

• AI-Driven Efficiency:
  Internal transformation is focused on AI:

  “The share of software code that was authored or co-authored by AI in the first quarter of 2025 was under 10%. Fast forward a year later... over 90%. About 70% of code changes are written entirely by AI.” — Co-host (07:55)

• Results & Scale:
  • 2025 revenue: $1.35B (up 95% YoY, mainly from acquisitions)
  • Q1 2026 revenue: $600M (doubling YoY)
  • 500 million monthly active users; paid users have tripled to 9 million in three years
  • Monetization includes cross-selling and ramping up ad revenue across portfolio brands (08:31).
• Corporate Control:
  Founders will retain control via dual-class shares (5 votes per share for class A). Public gets 1 vote/share — echoing trends at Meta and SpaceX.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Dot Plot and Policy Communication:

  “I did not submit a dot. For me, it's not helpful in the conduct of policy. I suspect by year end there'll be a review about communication broadly, press conferences, dots, meetings and the like, transcripts and minutes.” — Kevin Warsh (01:12)

• On Inflation Commitment:

  “The commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous and unambiguous. And that, I think is an important message we've missed for five years and we're going to fix that.” — Kevin Warsh (01:40)

• On Carvana’s Business Shift:

  “This seems like an admission that folks may want to test drive a car before buying it online. Maybe that model is evolving.” — Co-host (03:46)

• On Bending Spoons’ AI Transformation:

  “The share of software code that was authored or co-authored by AI in the first quarter of 2025 was under 10%. All right, that's not a lot. Fast forward a year later... over 90%.” — Co-host (07:55)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Debut & Communication Shift – 00:55–02:18
• Auto Industry Headlines (Carvana, CarMax, BMW) – 03:03–05:34
• Bending Spoons’ IPO, Strategy & AI Power – 05:34–09:49
• Market Wrap (S&P, Dow, NASDAQ Performance) – 10:47–11:08

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Market Wrap (10:54–11:08)

• Markets end down for the day:
  • S&P 500: -1.2%
  • Dow: -1%
  • NASDAQ: -1.33%

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Tone & Style:
Conversational, brisk, and market-savvy, combining analytical depth with accessible explanations.

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This summary covers the episode’s most important discussions, insights, and statistics, providing a comprehensive understanding even for those who haven’t listened.

Transcript

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[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

Carvanagh the online used car OG now selling new cars but is Wall street buy buying it AOL Vimeo we transfer a suite of digital platforms is about to go public. We have the latest on their parent company bending spoons and it's Fed Day. The rate decision was expected. The real story was what Kevin Walsh did or didn't do for Wednesday, June 17 is Brew Markets Daily. And I'm Ann Berry.

[Co-host (possibly Anne Berry or John Coteau Tarkab)]

More market details to come. But first, it's Fed Decision Day, otherwise known as Kevin Warsh Day, as today's meeting was the first under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. And as expected, the Fed left its benchmark interest rate unmoved. But notable was Warsh's break with 14 years of fed precedent by withholding his individual projection from the central bank's dot plot. Wash has been a critic of the dot plot forecasting tool as well as other forward guidance out of the committee, including projections on unemployment and inflation. Keeping with that view, today Warsh addressed the press saying, quote, unquote, I did not submit a dot. For me, it's not helpful in the conduct of policy. I suspect by year end there'll be a review about communication broadly, press conferences, dots, meetings and the like, transcripts and minutes. In addition to how the Fed communicates, Warsh also announced task forces to examine the Fed's balance sheet use and reliance on existing data sources, productivity and jobs, and the Fed's inflation framework. And regarding inflation, Warsh told reporters that the Fed is committed to reducing that number to two, saying, quote, the commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous and unambiguous. And that, I think is an important message we've missed for five years and we're going to fix that. Well, a big day for the Fed and we'll certainly keep watching. And coming up in a moment, a spin through the headlines that are moving the markets today, including BMW's challenges in China that have sent shares to a five year low.

[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

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[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

a moment, we survey the IPO filing of bending Spoons, the company that spent years gobbling up aging digital assets. But first, a few headlines from today's trading sessions. Kicking it off with cars with Carvana, the online auto retailer famous for its giant used car vending machines, now venturing into new vehicle sales and doing it in an unusual way instead of the traditional dealership experience, Carvana's physical locations will serve as a quote new car playgr, a place to browse, take a test drive, but not actually to buy. Which sounds a little bit how I use Best Buy at the moment, which is I go try out sample, you try out, test the products in store and then go buy an Amazon. So anyway, the customer in this case at Carvana, still doing that purchase the transaction going online.

[Co-host (possibly Anne Berry or John Coteau Tarkab)]

And Carvana, as you said, is the OG online car buying company. And through used auto sales alone, it's become the most valuable auto retailer in the US with a market cap around $70 billion. But this seems like an admission that folks may want to test drive a car before buying it online. Maybe that model is evolving where you just get a used car delivered to your house after pressing a button on your phone. In recent months, Carvana has purchased seven new car dealerships and it may buy more shares in the company Ticker CVNA down around 8% today.

[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

Well, sticking with autos and over to Carvana's largest competitor, that's CarMax, who is out with earnings today. And just like Carvana's shares of CarMax, that's ticker KMX down around 8%. The company did post better than expected revenue, but same store sales and used car profit both declined for a fourth straight quarter.

[Co-host (possibly Anne Berry or John Coteau Tarkab)]

CarMax brought in a new CEO, Keith Barr, in March after activist investor Starboard value revealed a $350 million stake in the company. One major goal for that turnaround is lowering reconditioning costs through technology and operational efficiency. That's essentially spending less money to get those used cars into sales shape. Bar acknowledged that the effort will be a multi year process for CarMax.

[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

Well, staying still with cars continuing on but now moving to Germany. Shares in BMW, that's ticker BMW aptly also shedding over 8% today and actually hitting a 5 year low. That's after the auto OG cut its full year operating profit outlook by more than a half, citing a deepening demand problem in China.

[Co-host (possibly Anne Berry or John Coteau Tarkab)]

China is BMW's biggest market, making up nearly a quarter of global vehicle sales last year. And it's struggling on two fronts, weaker demand and fierce competition from makers like byd. BMW said strong sales in Europe and the US Aren't enough to offset shares in Volkswagen and Mercedes Benz also trading lower today.

[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

And let's take a quick break. And when we come back, the company behind Vimeo, AOL and Evernote is heading to the stock exchange. We get into the digital details. Lately a handful of buzzy big tech IPO filings have been making headlines. So some investors may have missed the news that an interesting software company has filed with the SEC for a public debut. That company is bending Spoons. And even if you haven't hear heard that name, you're probably familiar with the long list of digital products that it owns. That's aol, Evernote, Vimeo, we transfer Eventbrite and the list goes on. Well, the company is based in Milan and over the last several years it's been buying up famous but struggling digital brands and rebuilding them. And they've been doing it with the help of AI and seeing some significant returns. More in that in just a moment. But John, give us some context on the company's ipo. Right.

[Co-host (possibly Anne Berry or John Coteau Tarkab)]

You mentioned it's an Italian tech company and it has chosen and filed the paperwork to go public on the NASDAQ under the ticker BSP for bending spoons. It's interesting that they're bringing the listing to the United States. I wanted to know is there a sense that there is deeper liquidity here than there might be in Europe for these tech?

[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

You know, that's definitely what we've been hearing. We've heard it from companies that are in Asia. For example, we had a conversation with the Grab CEO that talked about listing here in the US and one of the things he said was the bigger appetite here when it comes to these tech names. But the thing that's interesting too, John, at least when I Looked at, this is a lot of these companies, the actual operating businesses. Aol known for being born and raised in the United States. The same with Vimeo, the same with Eventbrite. So even though the parents company is Italian based, it makes a ton of sense that when it comes to those familiar with the brands, including the potential investors, they're based here in the U.S.

[Co-host (possibly Anne Berry or John Coteau Tarkab)]

so there's a lot of investors have heard of.

[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

Yes, exactly. An easier, easier education for them.

[Co-host (possibly Anne Berry or John Coteau Tarkab)]

So Bending Spoons is reportedly looking to raise around $1.5 billion from the IPO with a target valuation around $20 billion. Of course, it's a conglomeration of digital brands, not just one. But for comparison, Pinterest has an enterprise value around 10 billion. Reddit is closer to about 30 billion. So it sits between those two.

[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

Well, the key thing here is that Bending Spoons isn't building apps, it's buying them. And so they're buying up brands, established digital products, usually ones that were household names but have sort of lost their glamour. And then what Bending Spoons is doing from the parent companies sort of top down is they're overhauling pricing and the features and the internal operations. So there's not quite turnarounds, but there's certainly revamps.

[Co-host (possibly Anne Berry or John Coteau Tarkab)]

So Bending Spoons appears to be a company that is actually adopting AI to drive efficiencies in the company. And they put numbers around that adoption. So essentially it's a software company. Several brands under the umbrella using AI to code. And so this is from the company's IPO filing. The share of software code that was authored or co authored by AI in the first quarter of 2025 was under 10%. All right, that's not a lot. Fast forward a year later in the most recent quarter, Q1 2026, that percentage is over 90%. And the company said about 70% of code changes are written entirely by AI.

[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

So let's take a look at where that efficiency is actually showing up for full year. 2025 revenue came in at $1.35 billion, up 95% year over year. But again, this is sort of acquisition driven, right? This isn't necessarily organic growth. And for the first quarter of 2026 alone, 600 million in revenue, again doubling year over year. So they're sort of really jumping on the scale bandwagon here. And we just take a look at the numbers of users that they have. So across this portfolio of products, they've got 500 million active monthly users, the number of paid users tripling over the past three years. To 9 million. And so it's clear they're trying to get some synergies here. And we try and think about how they're trying to crack the revenue formula. You can see them for example, trying to sell across the platform to try and get ad revenue in selling ads to get in front of all these eyeballs. So again, the scale story around this one's pretty interesting. Even if those these aren't particularly glamorous, glamorous names. The idea that you can put them together and basically try and get a portfolio approach with synergy across the top line is pretty much the thesis here. Well, just one more note from the filing because we've been talking a lot about founders and how they keep control of their businesses. The four founders here are going to keep control vial dual class shares. They'll hold class A shares, 5 votes per share, public shareholders of course, just with the ordinary shares getting one vote each. So a little bit of deja vu here. Whether it's with Meta, Whether it's with SpaceX, seeing founders retaining control of of

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[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

4:00pm on the east coast, the markets have wrapped and we don't have a ticker tape. So let's throw it over to our human ticker, our producer John that's right,

[Co-host (possibly Anne Berry or John Coteau Tarkab)]

stocks dropping in the second half of the trading session as investors digested comments from the Fed's new chair. The S&P 500 finished down 1.2%, the Dow was down a percent for the day, and the NASDAQ finished down one and a third of a percent.

[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

That's it for today's brew markets.

[Co-host (possibly Anne Berry or John Coteau Tarkab)]

Daily brew markets Daily is hosted by Anne Barry and produced by John Coteau Tarkab, Della Teef, Avni Lauroy and Emily Millard. Our Tentacle director is Uchena Walgu. Brittany To Talk is our audio engineer. And the president of Morning Brew, Inc. Is Devin Emery.

[Host (possibly Neil or Toby)]

Wake up tomorrow with the Morning Brew newsletter and tune in to Neil and Toby on Morning Brew Daily. We'll see you back here tomorrow, same time, same place.