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Score more with the college branded Venmo Debit card and earn up to 5% cash back with Venmo Stash Got paid back with the Venmo Debit card, you can instantly access your balance and spend on what you want like game day, snacks, gear, tickets and more. The more you do, the more cash back you can earn. Plus, there's no monthly fee or minimum balance. Sign up now@venmo.com collegecard the Venmo Mastercard is issued by the Bancorp Bank NA Select Schools available Venmo Stash terms and exclusions apply at venmo me stashterms max $100 cash back per month. Warner Brothers cleans up at the Oscars, but Netflix shares the Spotlight with a $600 million AI deal with Ben Affleck. We've got the latest from Hollywood discount retailer Dollar Tree sees its stock price sprouting. We look at the successful pricing decisions that are distancing the chain from its dollar roots and a reckoning for set it and forget it investing. The S&P 500 is often sold as the solid diversified bet on the US economy. But we'll break down how one simple chart against that popular narrative for Monday, March 16 it's blue markets Daily and I'm Ann Barry. More market details to come. But first, conventional wisdom is turning on its head. It's been true for a while now, but one chart caught our eye this weekend that really pushed the point home. So what does it mean for you and me? Well, for years, self proclaimed personal finance experts have milked the message that hard earned savings should be parked in the S&P 500, pointing to two key reasons why. The first is pretty consistent returns over time. 8% is the magic number that's usually thrown out and the past 20 years have validated that again with an inflation adjusted return of approximately 8.15% per year. That's including both dividends and share price appreciation, with the benefit that index funds and ETFs that track the S&P 500 often have very low costs, so investors get to keep most of those returns instead of paying them out in hefty fees. Now the second pro has been to reduce risk through diversification, the idea being that by investing in 500 companies that cover roughly 80% of the total U.S. equity market by value, investors spread risk out as compared with buying individual stocks boosted. By the way, The S&P 500 automatically removes underperforming companies and adds successful ones, essentially self cleansing to keep exposure to high performers. So it's easy to see the appeal of a set it and forget it investing strategy. Just pop savings in an S&P 500 tracker fund and just leave it to compound over time. But on Saturday, Torsten Slok, who's the chief economist of investment Firm Apollo market cap $62 billion, posted an important chart. I'm going to post it to you, and it's one that I just one person's view interpreted as a serious reason why setting it and forgetting it is no longer such a good idea. And that's because the pie chart shows that the 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 make up 39% of the index's market cap. And now when you dig beyond that to look at who the top 10 are, which we did, it becomes clear that ironically the self cleansing nature of The S&P 500 has thrown some dirt on the passive investing approach. Now the top eight are Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta and Tesla, all major phenomenally successful tech giants. Number nine is Berkshire Hathaway, but 31% of its assets as of its latest earnings report were effectively cash or Treasuries. And here's the catch, lots of savers already hold too much cash as a percent of their Nest decks. Number 10 is depending on the day Walmart or Eli Lilly. So much for diversification. The self cleansing has done away with it and the point Slok made that really landed with me. While a new wave of tech giants coming to the public markets will likely change the equation even further if the big three IPOs the market is waiting for do happen this year or next year or just at all, the skew towards tech and away from diversification will make things even worse. OpenAI expected to go public with a valuation around a trillion dollars, still SpaceX at one and a half trillion. The S&P 500 does have criteria to join that goes beyond market cap alone. But on that metrics basis OpenAI and SpaceX would easily hit the top 10. Anthropic Smaller value today at $380 billion and likely to see that number rise could still hit the top 20. So that all important diversification has to come from somewhere else. That can still mean Tracker funds and ETFs because most of us don't have either the time or expertise to pick individual stocks. But holding some S&P 500 alongside some other less tech intensive assets looks necessary now to achieve what the OG index was originally meant to do. The S P 500 quick history lesson was officially launched on March 4th, 1957. And the point was to create a comprehensive, reliable, frequently updated gauge of the US Stock market and and broad emphasis, broad American economic health, specifically, by looking across diverse industries. But today the index is structurally underweight in real estate, in utilities, materials and energy. And small caps, of course, aren't in there at all. They never were. Ironic, since small and medium sized businesses contribute more than 40% of America's GDP. And by the way, all of this excludes privately held companies. So the message here, diversification is no longer a given in the way that we're used to. And while we all need and want tech in our portfolio, we need to widen the aperture. Which is why here at brewmarkets, we're going to double our efforts in covering more than just the big tech names. We're going to look harder at retail, consumer, healthcare, industrial and energy names and to bring on guests with real expertise in areas and corners that others overlook. And as always, we want your help. We want your suggestions for which sectors and stocks to unpack. Because we love your curiosity, we're going to keep on listening. Coming up, we survey the winners from Hollywood's biggest night and preview AI's introduction into show business. Is it Hollywood's biggest fright? Plus Peloton says it's hitting the gym. We look at where the beleaguered fitness brand is getting its next reps. But first, a word from our presenting sponsor, CME Group. Weathering the market means managing risk while also finding opportunities. That's where CME Group comes in.
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That's right. CME Group is the world's leading derivatives marketplace. It enables its clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets while optimizing portfolios and analyzing data.
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With CME Group, you can make the most of every opportunity with around the clock access to liquid global futures and options markets across all major asset classes. CME Group provides a wide range of global benchmark products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and methods.
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Learn more@cmegroup.com podcast. That's cmegroup.com podcast.
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Well, last night, Hollywood celebrated itself at the 98th annual Oscar Awards. Well, we're not a film or fashion podcast, at least not yet. But there were some interesting market stories that played out capping off the drama around the Netflix versus Paramount deal for Warner Brothers. We've all been obsessed with or frankly at this point, fatigued by. There were also many references throughout the show to AI and its future ensure show business. We'll get to that in just A moment. And one thing included in there, Ben Affleck's major AI deal. So let's start with Warner Brothers discovery. Last year, the studio was on its heels. Shares were trading at 7 bucks. In September, Paramount made its first bid at 19, eventually raising to 31 bucks a share. And throughout that time, Warner Brothers was racking up wins at the box office and got a ton of award nominations. Sinners itself had a record breaking 16 Oscar nominations. So before we get there and into the good stuff and into the markets angle, there's a little secret that I feel we need to share with everyone, and that's our producer John has enormous personal history with the Oscars.
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That's right.
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Tell us. Tell. I know it, but tell, tell the broader us.
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B
I'm putting on my Oscars branded jacket
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that I've never worn. Oh, my gosh. Why have you never worn it? It's a great jacket. It's a black. It looks like a bit like a puffer jacket without the puff.
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Yes.
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And it's got Oscars written across the sort of breast in a sort of orangey. I guess it's meant to be gold. Gold font.
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B
It's an affordable gold.
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And the A in the Oscars is a triangle with the silhouette of the Oscar statue at the Academy Award inside it.
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Perfectly described.
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Thank you. It's beautiful.
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It's recycled polyester, it's noisy, and it was perfect for the rain today in New York City.
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You're rustling. I keep rustling.
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B
Well, last year I had the opportunity to work on the oscars with Conan O', Brien, with whom I worked for 20 years. He hosted for the first time last year, and it was a great experience to be on stage backstage the whole time with him and the team while they wrote jokes and got handled the show. And it was exciting to watch this year at home from the couch and to be excited and worried for Conan
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just to have fun, but not to have to worry for your own performance.
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Exactly. Exactly.
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Did you wear your jacket while you were watching? I hope no, because you just wore it for the first time. Sure.
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I wasn't outside, but so, okay, so
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for those of us who have never, never have never and will never come within striking distance of the Oscars, what was the biggest surprise to you?
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The volume of jokes that are written.
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Oh, really?
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Because there's so many jokes that are written for Conan to say he has a great team of folks. But then there's so many award shows in Hollywood now and this is typically the last one.
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Yeah.
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So then you say, what did Nikki Glaser say on the Globes, what did this person say at the SAG Awards? And you start crossing out, oh, we had the same idea.
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We had the same idea. Oh, wow.
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And then there's also things, of course, this year Timothee Chalamet made news closer to the awards show about dissing opera and ballet. And so you have to make sure that you have topical jokes. And so that's constantly being rewritten.
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So since we're going to talk about AI, I have to ask you, when you were part of that process, and especially something like cross referencing, referencing your joke ideas to make sure they hadn't been used before, did you use AI in any of that process out of curiosity?
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I did. I used a transcript last year. So I would just immediately go to the Golden Globes transcript and then just pull out and cross reference and just get a sense of what the topics were.
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Would ChatGPT help you and sort of say, you know, no fly zone, don't go there?
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Well, it would just point out topics and you could say, oh, this area has been overused.
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Oh, well, that's fascinating. Well, right when we start rolling, I want to like, there's over drinks. I want to hear the skinny. I want to know like who is the rude celebrity? Who is the surprisingly gorgeous one? Who is the one that like sat in the wrong seat and irritated everyone? Things that need to be shared. You know, another time when we have Irish coffee, perhaps during brew markets rather than innocuous tea. Well, let's, let's talk about what happened last night because there was a heck of a lot going on.
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Absolutely. Once the dust settled, the awards were handed out. Warner Brothers won 11 Oscars, which titled record for the most wins by a studio in a single night. And it included best picture. One battle after another. Warner Brothers discovery Share price up about one and a quarter percent today. Still $3 off that $31 sale price that you mentioned.
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Yeah.
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And this is part decision of who would buy Warner Brothers. There was concern that Netflix wasn't going to put movies in theaters. And so this Warner Brothers storied studio which had this great success this year, the idea is that if Paramount, Skydance, if this all goes through, that company has pledged to release 15 films under the Warner Brothers title mantle every year along with 15 out of Paramount. So maybe not all those are gonna be big blockbusters, but the idea of 30 films coming out of Hollywood is a sign of potential health for the system.
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And that I think is the key point because so often when you have something like this. You know, you see a studio wins an award and the share price goes up, it feels like a leap to say, okay, one, the award win translates into real monetary value in a way that moves the scale enough to actually lead to a share price appreciation. But I think the point here is an interesting one, that it's not just about sentiment. This is seen as a proof point that that deal is in fact something that could be considered better for paramount, Warner Brothers, SharePoint going up, basically saying, look, they still got it. They got their mojo and they're going to make money in studios going forward. So interesting to see again, that leap from some, a popular moment in culture translate into perhaps real commercial value for a business in the industry. Well, let's talk about Netflix, which was not as successful last night, sort of licking its wounds after stepping away from the battle for Warner Brothers Discovery. And it did come away with six Oscars last night. Three from Frankenstein by Guillermo del Toro, a win for best animated feature and best original song for K Pop Demon Hunters. And very interestingly, that was part of Netflix's content partnership with Sony, which sort of shone a light on the fact that the streamers are getting creative in finding ways to get IP that can then be broadened to create lots of different kinds of media.
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Yeah, that's a new thing. Netflix has always said, like, we don't want to buy, we want to create. But they've, they've started buying. And that deal with Sony paid off immediately. There was concern that if Netflix bought Warner Brothers, then the opposite would happen, that there would be no films put out in theaters. And I thought Conan had a funny joke last night. He said, Ted Sarandos, the co CEO of Netflix, is here with us tonight. Ted, this is what a theater is. And that got a great response from the audience.
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That's a great response and definitely playing to the crowd, because this audience, they love the red carpet. They love the theater of the movie theater and the drama of it. And I love it. I still love the experience behind Steel. Right. Bringing it to life. Just as a reminder for fake shares in Netflix, up nearly 25% since walking away from the Warner Brothers Discovery deal. And that was a theme the whole way through that battle. Every time it looked like Netflix was going to be bid out, we saw its share price come up. I mean, investors could not have been more clear that they were not in favor of that deal on Netflix's behalf. But Netflix has done a different deal because last week it was reported that the streamer will pay as much as $600 million. That's for Inter Positive, an AI movie making company found by none other than Ben Affleck. Now, the startup developed a suite of tools that allow filmmakers to alter existing footage. John, just break that down. What does it mean to alter existing footage? Well, so editing or something else?
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Yes, sure, editing. Or maybe changing the lighting or maybe inserting people in the background. The point was to say this is not training AI models on existing films. Ben Affleck was saying, for example, we're not going to take Casablanca and put it in and then based someone's performance on one of the actors or write a script based on what those scripts look like. What they did was a small team of people trained the AI models on new production in a studio of just how the studio works.
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Specifically designed to train this model.
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Yes.
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Okay, got it.
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For lighting. And so not for an actual movie, not an actual product, but that can be used in fixing post production is what they're looking at. And already David Fincher is using these tools. He has a long contract with Netflix. And so the idea again is just to use these as tools, not as full content generators. And Ben Affleck really put an emphasis on that. In the press release, he said the results of this fundamental work were models focused on filmmaking techniques rather than performances. Creating tools artists can use, control and benefit from.
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That's so interesting. I mean, the way that you just described it, to translate that into more commonplace tech terms, is by creating the studio and this team basically setting up specific kinds of scenes or setups that they could then film is the equivalent of creating a proprietary database, Correct? That that was the creative equivalent of creating a proprietary database in tech world. And so again, it's not about content generation, it's about having a sort of an environment in which the patent spotting could actually be generated, could actually be happening. So very clever. And I just want to talk a bit about Ben Affleck because he. I can't remember if it's last year or the year before, but CNBC does a big conferen every year and it brings together deal makers. And Ben Affleck had partnered with Redbird, which is founded by Jerry Cardinal, Goldman Sachs former partner, who I used to work in the same group as him. And I remember there was a clip from that conference that went viral. And it's where Ben Affleck was asked about the risk that AI posed to actors and to movie makers. So, you know, the whole from writers to actors to producers. And one thing he said I thought was very thoughtful. He said here's what AI is really good at, that it's able to pull from its databases, to pull from its memory banks, lots and lots of stuff. But here's what AI can't do and what human beings can. It can't decide what to leave out.
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Right.
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And taste and art is all as and storytelling is about what you leave out. And all AI knows is what to leave in. And I thought that was so well articulated.
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It's all in the spaces.
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Yeah, it's all in the spaces and sometimes the negative space. And so I thought that was just extremely astute and to hear it from a creative person themselves. It did incredibly well. I know people came out of watching that and came out of the conference and said, okay, he's clearly a very smart businessman, which by the way, he is known for those in business circles. But to hear it brought together with the creative side was very interesting.
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And this is different than what we heard recently out of OpenAI's sorrow, which was. Which was taking content IP and then generating brand new videos based on that. Which is the exact. Not a tool, but a generator. And we saw that Walt Disney in December signed a three year licensing agreement with OpenAI AI Sora for those characters, think Pixar, Marvel, Star wars to be used in fan inspired short form videos on Disney plus. And so this is a different way that it's going. We're thinking about Ben Affleck talking about tools and post, but there's also this fear of AI generating performances.
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Yeah, there's also. So that was on the visual side. So we've now touched on AI and sort of filmmaking, which includes human actors. We've now talked about Disney. So that includes animation in the part with Sora, but audio is not without that sort of appeal as well. So radio is something that has been coming up a lot too.
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Yeah, absolutely. For 25 years.
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Yeah.
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I acted on morning radio around the country as a fake call in person.
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No, you didn't.
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I did.
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Okay.
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And I got $50 a call.
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A
Okay.
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And so like fake pranks, all these stupid things that you, you grew up with with, you know, hearing. Maybe you didn't grow up with it, but morning radio, drive time radio in the United States, in every single market, they do fake pranks in the morning or crazy stuff and it was all fake. And I was a performer on there and I got $50 a call, which was pretty good money. Cause sometimes it was only 10 minutes or something like that.
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Did you have to script it or you just literally handed as. Or sent a Script and you would just make the call and read it out.
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It was a premise.
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It was a premise.
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And so you had to react in a certain way.
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There was some improv in there.
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Absolutely.
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Okay, so this is a skill. This is a skill based activity.
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Sure. Yes, I was compensated. And then three years ago I got a contract that said if you sign this, we'll give you $250 right now for the use of your voice. And so instead of. Instead of to be used in an AI model.
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Oh, wow.
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So they said if we'll give you $250 if you read these three pages of words and then you'll never work again. And either way, I never worked again because they went to an AI model. But that's one example of voice actors or people lending their, their AI to a voice.
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Yeah. That's incredible. So you have a digital twin. There is a voice digital twin of you.
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Well, I never signed the paperwork.
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Oh, you decided not to do it.
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Yeah. Either way, they weren't going to hire me anymore because they were going to go AI, but I thought, I don't want 250.
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Just as a matter of principle, you to keep your voice and just. Can you just talk about. This was Dick Clark's United Stations. Right. So what happened to that? This is hilarious. A Dick Clark, basically known as a big music producer.
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Right.
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Back in the day. So this was specifically for that set of radio stations.
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Well, he started a content company that would send content to morning radio stations. So it would be like parody songs or weather forecasts or this day in history, Happy Birthday, anything. You know, there was radio markets all around the country that would get these faxes in the morning and then later emails with just content because they're just killing time in the morning. And eventually with the consolidation of radio stations with Clear Channel buying so many stations, the local stations dried up, there was more syndication. And so that business retreated. But it still exists as a content platform. It was bought by Penske three years ago.
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Okay. Penske, the truck rental company.
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No, sorry, that's the publication company. They own Rolling Stone, they've the Hollywood Reporter, They've purchased a lot of media.
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It wouldn't have been crazy to me to have been ended up with the trucking business because morning, you know, it's a lot of the late night, the driving radio audience. So that wouldn't. Essentially I was going to make a call out synergies there. Well then lastly, let's talk on almost. Lastly, let's talk about Comcast because just last week the Company announced that an AI Andy Cohen, a bit like. Like trying to get your voice as an AI Andy Cohen will be rolled out this summer as part of Bravo Verse in the Peacock app. So an AI Andy avatar will give context and set up clips for Bravo shows. Just to quote Andy, he said, it's the best of AI and the best of Bravo, all guided by me. Well, not exactly me, but a version of me. So Andy Cohen took the opposite perspective that you took and decided, I guess he's going to get more money out of it.
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More than 250.
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More than 250 bucks. But he decided it was okay to have it at least be in existence.
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That's right. And this is the second time Peacock has done this. Famously. They did this with Al Michaels. They made an AI version of him. He's a sports broadcaster, famous sports broadcaster. He was delivering highlights from the 2024 Paris Olympics, or his AI version was.
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A
Well, this all reminded me of Kevin O'. Leary. So just a bit of context here. Last night on the Oscar broadcast, we saw Kevin o', Leary, and he had a pretty large role in Marty supreme, which was nominated for Best Picture. And when Kevin came on the show last summer, we talked about it. We talked about movie that he was telling us that he was filming. He told me he'd been tapped by the role. No one here at Brew Markets at the time really sort of knew what. My eyes glazed, David. And I was sort of thrilled by the idea that he'd been asked to participate. And he was very enthusiastic about it. But let's just have a quick listen to what Kevin o' Leary had to say about his participation at the time.
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Just over a year ago in June, I get a phone call from Josh Safdie, who's a director of Uncut Gems, and Ronnie Bronstein, the writer of Uncut Gems, which is an Adam Sandler movie that I love. I just love that movie. It's so dark, it's funny, but crazy. And so he said, hey, listen, we're shooting a movie called Marty supreme, and there's a role. There's a guy named Milton Rockwell in it. Richest man in America. 1952. Brought the ballpoint pen to America. This is all fact out there. And, you know, we're looking for a real asshole to play this role in your head.
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After we subsequently went on to talk about the fact that he, like Andy Cohen, has okayed having a digital twin out there.
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B
That's right. He went to Abu Dhabi to record some commercials. He spends a lot of time there, reportedly. And he got a digital twin made of himself and he said it's great. I don't have to travel to go do research or if a line changes they can just change it for me. Me.
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No it's it was fascinating conversation. I think we maybe, maybe do back going to sort of look at that and see what else he said because he's ended up being sort of prescient on a couple of things actually. Well look, as we've discussed, abc, Disney, Hulu has the Oscars for another two years but it's going to end with the hundredth ceremony because then the airing rights is going to go over to Google's YouTube. Huge moment in what started out as a user generated content platform now taking over the silver screen's biggest night. Well, let's take a break and when we come back, spin through the headlines that are moving the markets today. John, can you turn the phrase semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year into an investable index for me right now?
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B
Off the top of my head, no.
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- [25:05]
B
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A
Spring styles are at Nordstrom Rack stores now and they're up to 60% off. Stock up and save on Rag and Bone, Madewell, Vince, All Saints and more of your favorites.
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B
How did I not know Rack has Adidas?
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Why do we rack for the hottest deal just so many good brands? Join the Nordy Club to unlock exclusive discounts, Shop new arrivals first and more. Plus buy online and pick up at your favorite Rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack. There it is, the closing bell, 4pm on the east coast and the markets wrapping up for the day. While we don't have a ticker tape, we'll throw it over instead to our human ticker.
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Our producer John the S&P 500 finished up 1%, the Dow was up 8.10of a percent and the NASDAQ finished up 1 1/2% for the day. Some market headlines shares in Dollar Tree ticker DLTR were up over 7% today after the company reported strong earnings with net sales up 9% and same store sales climbing 5% year over year. The retailer is shifting inventory to sell more goods in the range of $3 to $5, including toys and party supplies, which have been performing well. I personally understand that with inflation, it's impossible to exclusively sell items for $1. But it bugs me that dollar stores now sell products in increments of a dollar. That just seems like any store, even Five Below now has items that are more than five bucks as part of their quote, Five Beyond Collection.
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A
John, they're really wanting the day of 99 cents back in the taglines of these things. Well, in other news, shares in meta rose nearly 2 1/2% today. And that was after a weekend report from Reuters that the tech giant could lay off roughly 20% of its workforce in the coming months, and that's to offset heavy spending on AI. Now, Meta has done heavy layoffs in the past, incidentally, and what it called a return to productivity, something that was favorably received by the market at the time. Well, a company spokesperson called the report, quote, speculative. Although we at brew markets tend to think with these things, there's no smoke, typically without a fire. In the meantime, Meta announced, announced officially today that it will pay as much as $27 billion over the next five years for access to AI infrastructure from the cloud provider Nebius Group on its new Nvidia Vera Rubin chips, which is the latest generation of particularly smart chips. Shares in Nebius were up over 15% on the back of that announcement.
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And finally, shares in peloton ticker PTON rose 4% today as the company continues to move into the commercial market with the introduction of new products designed for high traffic gym floors. Peloton CEO said, quote, we are bridging the gap between the home and the gym, which seems like an identity crisis and it seems to continue. Despite today's bump, the company's Stock remains down 96% from its Covid peak.
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I gotta tell you, I'm a cynic on that. I've been a cynic on Peloton as a stock since the beginning, and I'm really unclear how this changes things. I recently joined Equinox, by the way.
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B
Oh, that sounds lovely.
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It's very bougie. It is very lovely. It is very. So I'm going to be on the lookout now to see which equipment's in there. I'm going to report back and see if any of them are publicly traded. That's it, folks, for today's Brew Markets Daily.
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Brew Markets Daily is hosted by Anne Barry, produced by John Crato Tarka Bellatief, Ami Laroya and Emily Millairn. Technical direction by Uchenua Ogu Brittany Dotako is our audio engineer and the President of Morning Brew Inc. Is Devin Emery.
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Wake up tomorrow with the Morning Brew newsletter and tune in to Neil and Toby on Morning Brew Daily. We'll see you back here tomorrow. Same time, same place.
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