Brew Markets – November 18, 2025

Episode: Travel’s ‘Frictionless Future’ with CLEAR’s CEO & Home Depot Weathers Few Storms

Episode Overview

In this episode of Brew Markets, host Ann Berry unpacks the latest market stories with a focus on:

• Home Depot’s earnings and what they signal for the US consumer
• Klarna’s transition from “Buy Now, Pay Later” to a global digital bank
• A wide-ranging interview with CLEAR’s CEO, Karen Seidman Becker, diving into biometric security, the government shutdown’s impact on travel, and the future of frictionless travel
• A quick wrap-up on big AI investment news involving Microsoft, Nvidia, and Anthropic

Tone is conversational, analytical, with Ann sharing personal insights and nerding out on details, joined by co-host/producer John.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Home Depot’s Mixed Earnings and Consumer Uncertainty

[03:38–09:44]

• Home Depot’s Scale & Strategy

  • Market cap: $343B, over 2,300 stores, 475,000 employees.
  • Aggressively diversifying beyond homeowners into B2B—recent acquisitions include GMS ($5.5B, commercial specialty building products).
  • “They’re definitely expanding beyond the DIY homeowner.” (John, 04:05)

• Earnings Snapshot

  • Q3 sales: $41.4B (GMS contributed $900M).
  • Operating income: $5.3B, down 1.2% YOY.
  • Same store sales: barely positive at 0.2%.
  • Outlook was lowered for full-year comp sales; market reacted negatively (stock down 6% today, -13% YTD).

• Unusual Weather’s Impact

  • Home Depot CEO cited “lack of storms” hurting certain product categories (plywood for hurricanes, generators, roofing).
  • “It’s so interesting that Home Depot is saying the absence of bad weather hurt us.” (Ann, 06:35)
  • Contrasts with Six Flags, which blamed bad weather for weak quarters.
  • Caution that blaming weather is less credible outside of certain industries.

• Macro Trends

  • Home Depot CFO: “Our customers are homeowners. They are seeing home prices now decline in more markets than rising. And we know they have job concerns. This all comes together in the form of hesitation to take on larger financial commitments.” (John, 07:47)
  • “Mortgage rates…so far have not catalyzed demand.” (Campbell, paraphrasing Home Depot CFO, 08:07)
  • Big consumer retailers like Home Depot and Walmart see compression and uncertainty, especially among non-wealthy demographics.

2. Klarna: The Evolution of Buy Now, Pay Later

[09:45–16:23]

• State of Business

  • Klarna (Stockholm-based) IPO'd Sep 2025 at $15B, headlines today at $12B.
  • Q3: $903M revenue (US up 51%, global up 28%).

• Shifting Business Model

  • “It’s actually been doing a lot more, becoming a global digital bank.” (Ann, 10:07)
  • Launched credit card (July): 4M sign-ups, now 15% of global transactions.
  • CEO Sebastian Siemiakowski: “We are accelerating, trying to get to the same amount of acceptance and merchants as Visa and Mastercard.” (Ann quoting, 11:02)

• Financials & Provisions

  • Net loss: $95M, primarily due to higher-than-expected provisions for loan losses ($235M).
  • Klarna’s CEO says these are up-front costs for long-term gain: “These provisions are costly up front. The loans have a much higher margin long term…expected profit lag.” (Ann paraphrasing, 12:15)
  • Analyst quote from Morningstar: “If you look at actual performance rather than ‘accounting metrics,’ the quarter was good.” (Ann, 12:32)

• Valuation vs. Competitors

  • Klarna EV: $8B, Affirm: $28B.
  • Revenue similar ($2.9B Klarna vs. $3.5B Affirm), but Klarna trades at a much lower multiple.
  • Ann explores reasons: Affirm’s higher profit margins, US market bias, and IPO timing (Klarna possibly undervalued itself).
  • “For these startup companies…they really need to build longer term credit profiles for customers using their services.” (Ann, 11:47)
  • Klarna uses AI risk assessment, claiming an edge over traditional lenders.

3. Interview: Karen Seidman Becker (CEO, CLEAR)

[17:25–24:58]

Travel’s ‘Frictionless Future’ & CLEAR’s Expansion

• Opening Themes

  • CLEAR: now in 60+ airports, recently partnered with DocuSign (facial verification for sensitive documents), and powers LinkedIn identity checks.
  • “You can essentially sign a document with your face.” (Ann, [00:39], referencing previous CLEAR-DocuSign interview)

• Travel Post-Government Shutdown

  • “I think traveling is back to pretty much normal. The question is, what’s normal? Travel was hard and getting harder before the shutdown…airports are bursting at the seams.” (Karen, 18:05)
  • Despite disruption, CLEAR maintained strong numbers: 7.7M active subs, much growth potential remains.
  • “People are hitting the road for both business and leisure. So it’s happening.” (Karen, 18:17)

• Revenge Travel & New Expectations

  • No major “catch-up” effect from shutdown, steady demand.
  • Karen: “What we’re seeing is a new expectation in travel. People want frictionless experiences…Uber transformed the cab and DoorDash transformed food delivery…I would say travel and also healthcare, you do not have that…People want control.” (18:41)
  • CLEAR is responding by launching concierge and e-gates: “We launched E Gates. Like, people want control.” (Karen, 19:18)
  • US travelers increasingly compare their experience to airports in Doha, Singapore, Tokyo, London—demanding better.

• Privacy and Accessibility

  • Ann: “People are willing to give up privacy to do that?” (19:56)
  • Karen: “People are willing to enroll in CLEAR because they trust us…We do not sell or share data. And privacy is job one.” (20:00)
  • Discusses controversy over equity: California bill to ban CLEAR (on equity grounds) was pulled. Karen stresses affordability ($10/mo avg, PreCheck $1.30/mo): “So it really is affordable, I would say luxury.” (Karen, 20:49)

• Operations & Contingency Planning

  • On preparing for shutdowns or busy holidays: “Looking around corners and risk management is the job of a leader…one and a half feet on the gas and a half a foot on the brake.” (Karen, 21:49)
  • Praises public-private partnerships: allows CLEAR to quickly increase staffing for events (F1, Super Bowl, shutdowns)—at no cost to taxpayers.

• Resource Allocation

  • CLEAR increased staffing during shutdown to help customers, sometimes with physical TSA processes: “Whether it be just helping with divestment after…helping people lift bins. My mom’s 80, she needs help.” (Karen, 22:49)
  • Ann asks if costs will show up: “We’re very focused on efficiency and proud of the margin expansion that we showed in the quarter.” (Karen, 23:14)

• Holiday & Future Travel Outlook

  • Expecting “record travel” for holidays: “You saw that this summer when many days looked like Thanksgiving did many years ago.” (Karen, 23:30)
  • Airbnb and the “infinite rooms” effect: more opportunities, “travel will continue to grow.”
  • Some market weakness (Las Vegas), but overall strength: “We have markets that are up 50 to 75% year over year. And then you have markets that…might be a little lighter, but as a nationwide network, we continue to see…very good strength.” (Karen, 24:23)
  • Karen’s holiday plans: “We are traveling to Portugal, my new favorite spot.” (24:45)

4. AI Investment “Circular Deal”

[25:37–26:55]

• Major Cloud/AI Players Intertwine
  • Microsoft, Nvidia, and Anthropic announce a $30M deal—Anthropic to use Microsoft Azure in return for $5B investment.
  • Nvidia also investing; echoes previous industry pattern (Amazon–OpenAI).
  • “These are moments when a couple of players are becoming too big to collectively fail.” (Ann, 26:51)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Karen Seidman Becker, on travel transformation:

  “People want control. They want a home to gate app…people are more dissatisfied with the experience they’ve been having in travel. And I think this shutdown…only reminded people they want and deserve more.” (18:41)

• Karen Becker, on privacy:

  "People are willing to enroll in CLEAR because they trust us and they know that their privacy and their data are secure...We do not sell or share data. And privacy is job one." (20:00)

• Ann Berry, on disruption in payments:

  "We’ve been so lucky to talk on this show to folks who are trying to disrupt consumer credit... For these startup companies... one of the key insights...is trying to determine how much they can lend to customers with as low risk as possible." (11:47)

• John, summarizing Home Depot's struggle:

  “Our customers are homeowners. They are seeing home prices now decline in more markets than rising. And we know they have job concerns. This all comes together in the form of hesitation to take on larger financial commitments.” (07:47)

• Ann, on market comparisons:

  "Klarna is trading at a discount to Affirm... investors [are] rewarding Affirm’s faster revenue growth, slightly longer track record of profitability, [and its] higher margin interest income." (14:03)

• Karen, on leadership:

  "Your job is not to bury your head in the sand. I’m always surprised when people are surprised." (21:49)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Home Depot and Macro Consumer Trends: 03:38–09:44
• Klarna’s Earnings and Financial Evolution: 09:45–16:23
• Interview: CLEAR CEO Karen Seidman Becker: 17:25–24:58
• AI Industry Alliances & Circular Investment: 25:37–26:55

Final Thoughts

This episode provides a pulse on broader economic and consumer trends—ranging from wary homeowners and evolving credit landscapes to the ever-increasing demand for seamless travel. Karen Seidman Becker’s interview stands out for her directness, vision of frictionless travel, and insistence on privacy and public-private partnership. The show finishes with a spotlight on the growing web of alliances among big tech and AI players, emphasizing how a handful of companies are shaping the digital future.

Whether you’re following stocks, fintech innovations, or changes in how we travel, this is a comprehensive listen for market-focused minds.