Brew Markets – October 27, 2025

Episode Title: Travis Kelce Looks to Fix Six Flags & Flying Taxis Are Taking Off
Host: Ann Berry
Main Contributors: John Grotteau (Producer), Adam Goldstein (Co-founder & CEO of Archer Aviation)

Overview of Episode Theme

This episode focuses on two compelling market stories:

1. Six Flags' turnaround efforts, fueled by activist investors including Super Bowl champ Travis Kelce.
2. The boom in flying taxi stocks, shining a spotlight on the electric vertical takeoff and landing (EVTOL) aircraft sector, particularly Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation. The episode features an in-depth interview with Archer’s CEO, Adam Goldstein, exploring timelines, technological innovation, and the financial realities of the sector.

Additional coverage includes major market movers like Qualcomm, Porsche, Lululemon, and IRobot, as well as updates on Federal Reserve chair succession.

1. Flying Taxis: Why Are EVTOL Stocks Surging?

[00:02–14:47]

Key Discussion Points

• White House Executive Order: June 2025 order from the administration to prioritize "unleashing American drone dominance," specifically advancing EVTOL and drone tech.
• Stock Performance:
  • Joby Aviation (JOBY): +150% over six months, highlighted by its acquisition of Blade and a partnership with Uber.
  • Archer Aviation (ACHR): +30% over the same period, with a major order from Korean Air and an exclusive partnership for the 2026 World Cup and 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.
• Reality Check: Both companies enjoy high market caps ($14B for Joby, $7B for Archer) but generate near-zero revenue today, raising questions about near-term financial sustainability.

"From a technology perspective, it’s an incredibly exciting time. But from a market’s point of view, the message is a little less clear because…each generate almost zero revenue today."
— Ann Berry [01:27]

Featured Interview: Archer Aviation CEO Adam Goldstein

[14:47–33:08]

Archer’s Technology and Business Model

• Product: Fully electric air taxis (EVTOLs), designed for safety, quiet operation, and affordability compared to helicopters.
• Usage: Initially piloted (up to 4 passengers) with eventual autonomous operation.
• Urban Transit: Promises to reduce hour-plus car rides to 5-10 minute air journeys—e.g., Manhattan to JFK in five minutes.
• First Launch: Prototype flights expected in mid-2026 (“next year”) in major U.S. cities (Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, Miami), with international debut in the UAE ([17:47]; [18:19]).

Infrastructure and Partnerships

• Heliport Compatibility: Archer’s aircraft are designed to use existing heliports, sidestepping the need for heavy infrastructure investments ([18:53]).
• OEM Focus: Archer will mostly build aircraft, partnering for “vertiports,” while seeking collaborations (notably with Uber and Lyft) for last-mile connections ([19:53]; [20:32]).
• Strategic Investors:
  • United Airlines: Early investor, purchasing aircraft, aiding ecosystem growth ([21:28]).
  • Anduril Industries: Defense applications; Anduril adds mission-specific capabilities to Archer’s unmanned vehicles ([22:54]).

Military vs. Civil Markets

• Military Aircraft: Autonomous, hybrid powertrains, significant size increase vs. typical drones. Certification is faster but unpredictable due to government contracting ([23:09]; [23:58]).
• Timeline: Commercial EVTOLs expected in 2026; military deployments depend on government timelines ([24:58]; [25:10]).

Major Events & Brand Awareness

• LA28 Olympics & 2026 World Cup: Archer is the exclusive air taxi partner, offering high-profile brand exposure and planned “mass use” ([25:31]).

Public Safety and Perception

• Post-Kobe Bryant Tragedy: Ann Berry presses on public safety perceptions.
  • Archer’s pitch: Design exceeds current helicopter standards for redundancy and software-assisted safety ([28:09]).
  • Education and gradual rollout are key to public trust ([29:47]).

"We will start slow. We will be very modest in how we put aircrafts out there. But the good news is…the government is very heavily involved…and that education process will begin in mass."
— Adam Goldstein [29:36]

Market Cap & Financial Health

• $7B market cap, no revenue—Goldstein frames it as generational opportunity, counseling focus on product delivery, not stock price ([30:14]).

"When the stock price goes up, don’t be happy. When the stock price goes down, don’t be sad. The only thing that matters is building a safe aircraft that we get to market."
— Adam Goldstein [30:29]

• Metrics to Watch: Certification and market launches (especially EIPP pilot program), revenue recognition timelines (notably UAE partnerships starting to yield revenue in 2026) ([31:34]; [32:07]).

2. Six Flags: Travis Kelce, Activists, and Turnaround Tactics

[03:20–12:40]

The Investment Story

• Travis Kelce’s Move: Super Bowl champ partners with Jana Partners and others to invest $200M for a 9% stake in Six Flags (ticker: FUN), aiming to revamp the brand and experience ([04:20]; [04:20]).
• Company’s Struggles:
  • Stock down 44% YTD.
  • Recent merger with Cedar Fair hasn’t delivered (combined market cap ~$2.5B; $5B in debt).
  • Guest attendance down 9% YoY; lost 10M annual visitors since the pandemic.
  • CEO stepping down, creating a leadership vacuum ([04:20–05:25]).
  • Failed price hikes and superficial improvements; stark contrast to Disney’s thriving parks ([06:02]).

Activist Investor Dynamics

• Jana Partners’ Focus: Improving guest experience, tech, and loyalty—Travis Kelce brings his consumer-minded touch ([06:13]; [07:48]).

"We're going to be part of the theme parks and amusement parks that actually rocked our world as kids and hopefully give families nowadays the fun and the memories that we had and cherished growing up."
— John, quoting Travis Kelce [07:48]

• Land & Buildings’ Agenda: Pushes for monetization of Six Flags’ substantial real estate assets ([10:32]).

Multiple Activists: Opportunity or Chaos?

• Possible alignment between activists with differing superpowers (consumer vs. real estate focus) as long as their domains remain clear. Combined, activists now control 11% ([11:01]).

Market Reaction

• FUN shares rose over 6% as news percolated. Markets unsure how much is “noise” vs. tangible transformation ([11:47]).

• Discussion on celebrity investments: Kelce is unusually thorough, partnering with expert firms (Jana, El Caston), bolstering credibility vs. past “celebrity SPAC” skepticism ([08:30]).

3. Market Movers: Qualcomm, Porsche, Lululemon, IRobot

[33:22–35:42]

Qualcomm (QCOM)

• +20% as it debuts AI-specific data center chips, challenging Nvidia/AMD; emphasis on energy efficiency for AI inference ([34:08]).

Lululemon (LULU)

• +4% on an NFL-themed apparel partnership, aiming for a brand comeback amid a 50% YTD stock drop ([33:22]).

Porsche

• +3% despite first loss post-IPO (2022), hit by China sales slump and product pivot back to internal combustion engines ([34:40]).

IRobot (IRBT)

• –30% after its sale process collapses; survival in doubt ([35:13]).

4. Federal Reserve Chair Succession & Closing Thoughts

[35:42–37:09]

• Fed Watch: Awaiting the second rate cut of 2025; five finalists for next Chair revealed, including existing governors and a BlackRock executive ([35:42]).
• Jay Powell: Could remain as a Fed governor until 2028 even after his term as chair ends.

Notable Quotes

• On defensive use-cases for Archer aircraft:
  "The partnership with Anduril was very specific because Archer builds aircrafts and then Anduril can missionize those aircraft…you can put all the different systems that are necessary to be able to operate in the defense world."
  — Adam Goldstein [22:54]

• On the challenge of theme park turnarounds:
  "Everything’s sort of going poorly for them at the moment. Guest attendance down, a merger that hasn’t gone so well, definitely got too much debt."
  — Ann Berry [05:29]

• On public company activism:
  "This is an example of where there can be multiple different ways for a public company to try and shake itself up. Sometimes it needs an external prod to do it. Sometimes it’s a prod that comes from a footballer."
  — Ann Berry [11:58]

Key Timestamps

• 0:02 – Episode opens; flying taxi segment intro
• 1:27 – Market cap vs. zero-revenue realities for Archer & Joby
• 4:20 – Travis Kelce/Six Flags investment story
• 7:48 – Travis Kelce’s personal connection and philosophy
• 10:32 – Competing activist investors in Six Flags
• 14:47 – Adam Goldstein interview begins
• 25:31 – Archer’s 2026 LA World Cup/Olympics partnership
• 29:47 – Addressing public safety and trust in EVTOLs
• 30:14 – The financial pressures of high cap, zero revenue
• 33:22 – Quickfire market round-up (Qualcomm, Lululemon, Porsche, IRobot)
• 35:42 – Fed Chair succession discussion

Tone & Takeaways

The episode balances an analytical, investor-centric tone with curiosity, skepticism, and a dash of optimism (especially regarding technological disruption and entrepreneurial spirit). Ann Berry is thorough, data-driven, and at times wry, especially in comparisons (Six Flags vs. Disney). Travis Kelce’s hands-on approach to business is praised, while Archer’s CEO offers passionate, grounded optimism about aviation’s future. The episode closes with bullishness on tech innovation and skepticism about distressed consumer and hardware businesses.

In summary:

• Six Flags may be at a turning point thanks to activist investors (with celebrity cachet adding attention, and potentially value).
• Archer and Joby exemplify the promise (and peril) of pre-revenue, innovation-driven investing—with major upside only if tech, regulation, and consumer sentiment converge soon.
• Investors: Should watch for concrete milestones—commercial launches, regulatory approvals, and early revenue recognition—before jumping on headline momentum.