Brew Markets — November 11, 2025

Episode: Visa, Mastercard, and the Price of a Swipe & Instacart Delivering Tech
Host: Ann Berry
Guest: Ted Oakley (Managing Partner, Oxbow Advisors)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Ann Berry dives into three major stories shaping the markets:

1. Instacart’s shift from marketplace to enterprise software under new CEO Chris Rogers.
2. The implications of a pivotal settlement between Visa, Mastercard, and merchants that may change how consumers use rewards credit cards.
3. A deep-dive interview with asset manager and veteran Ted Oakley, exploring risk in today's market, the value of commodities, and the lifelong lessons of military service.

Instacart's Transformation: Beyond Grocery Delivery

[00:31–03:34]

The Shift to Enterprise SaaS

• Ann Berry spotlights Instacart's Q3 earnings, headlined by strong revenue growth ($993 million) and a $1.5B share repurchase plan.

• Chris Rogers (Instacart CEO) emphasizes a new growth area: white-label e-commerce and enterprise software for grocery retailers, highlighting partnerships with major chains like Costco and Publix.

  “Our storefront or white label e-commerce technologies now power more than 350 retailer e-commerce storefronts... every retailer is unique... We’ve built the best grocery-specific platform that can handle that complexity at scale.” — Chris Rogers, [01:46]

• Instacart’s new strategic “pillars”:

  • Storefront tech
  • Pick and pack automation
  • Ad tech for grocers
  • Catering services solutions
  • AI-powered “smart carts” for in-store recommendations

Ann Berry’s Take:

• The market reacted positively, but she notes financials for these tech segments remain undisclosed.
• Despite innovation, Instacart stock remains down 10% YTD, signaling ongoing investor concern over competition.
• Ann pledges closer scrutiny of Instacart’s enterprise pivot as numbers become available.

Visa & Mastercard Settlement: Are Reward Cards at Risk?

[04:05–09:32]

The Lawsuit and Its Origins

• The case, initiated in 2005, alleged anticompetitive behavior by Visa and Mastercard. A settlement was recently reached (pending final court approval).
• Visa and Mastercard’s combined market cap now nears $1T.

The Fee Structure

• John Croteau explains interchange fees: merchants pay 2–2.5% per transaction, equating to $83B paid to card issuers in 2024 alone.

  “That may not sound like a lot of money, but in 2024, merchants paid $83 billion in fees to card issuers.” — John Croteau, [04:41]

• Ann Berry points out that premium rewards credit cards command higher fees, traditionally requiring merchants to accept all Visa or Mastercard products regardless of fee.

The Settlement's Impact

• Under the new deal, merchants could refuse high-fee rewards cards (like airline or luxury cards), accepting only select types.

• John raises concern about consumer confusion:

  “Can you imagine how confusing it would be if I walk in with my Chase Sapphire Reserve... and they say, no, we don’t take that, the fee is too high?” — John Croteau, [06:07]

• Ann and John discuss observed trends:

  • Retailers charging card processing fees, or offering cash discounts.

  • Risks of fragmented payment acceptance for both consumers and retailers.

    “At some point, you know what this reminds me of? When I walk now into a CVS or Walgreens... toothpaste is sitting behind a Perspex cover. There are points where I just walk out... can’t be bothered with the complexity.” — Ann Berry, [07:18]

• The deal is not yet finalized (still pending court review); if implemented, it could make high-fee travel/reward card usage more restricted.

The Bigger Payments Landscape

• Ann notes the traditional card networks face mounting threats from newer players:

  • Stripe, Apple Pay, PayPal, Cash App, Walmart’s fintech offering.

• Visa and Mastercard down roughly 0.5% on the news, but both up 5% YTD (lagging S&P performance).

  “It just feels as though Visa and MasterCard really need to figure out a way to play in a sort of clean, easy to understand, straightforward fashion to keep the market share that has kept them going for so long.” — Ann Berry, [08:37]

Interview: Ted Oakley on Market Risk, Commodities, and Military Lessons

[10:07–19:47]

Market Valuation and Risk

• Ann references Ted’s recent writing, highlighting “madness” and unprecedented risk in markets, with the real economy just “so-so.” She asks: Is it time to be defensive?

  “If you observe that the markets are statistically very expensive... then the natural thing... is to take action, to at least settle their portfolio in a little bit to where they have a buffer... because at some point in time, markets always revert back to the mean.” — Ted Oakley, [10:54]

• Ted advises caution:

  • Markets at historically high valuations
  • Suggests trimming positions, building “buffers.”

Commodities as Opportunity

• Ann asks about alternatives, especially commodities, which have lagged the S&P.

  “Over the next 10 years, I think you need some commodity exposure... energy, for example, is the cheapest thing there is right now... you can own fertilizer, iron, copper... hard assets and commodities.” — Ted Oakley, [12:21]

• Ted prefers hard commodities (energy, metals) over soft commodities (agriculture).

Gold’s Surge

• Gold has skyrocketed past $4,000. Ted shares his view:

  “Gold... goes through cycles... We think we’re in a pretty good cycle now. I don’t, I’m not certain it’s over... in the long run... I think it could go to a new high.” — Ted Oakley, [13:21]

Stock Ideas and Allocation

• Ann asks for portfolio specifics; Ted shares sample holdings:

  • O’Reilly Automotive (aftermarket auto parts)
  • Booking Holdings (travel platform)
  • Union Pacific (rails, ongoing merger speculation)
  • Royalty gold companies (Royal Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals)
  • Unilever (consumer staples giant)

Bond Portfolio Construction

• Ted describes Oxbow’s approach:

  • Corporate bonds: short maturities (<5 years originally, now ~3.5)

  • Short-term Treasuries dominate, avoid long-term government debt.

  • Keeps 10–12% of high-income portfolio in corporate bonds.

    “We don’t like the long Treasury over the long term... if rates went up significantly, then we’re going to adjust automatically.” — Ted Oakley, [16:18]

Military Service & Investing Discipline

• Veterans Day Segment: Ann explores what Ted’s Army experience gave him as an investor.

  “What it gave me... it gave me a healthy respect for people of all sorts... Probably one of the best things that ever happened to me because I really grew up a lot in the Army.” — Ted Oakley, [17:39]

• Ted on work ethic and resilience:

  “When you’re really going through tough army or Marine sort of things... you have to have a grind... In the world of investing... we’re a lot like coaching... you start all over again January 1st... you always keep your standards high on what you want to own, how you want to do business with people.” — Ted Oakley, [18:50]

Notable Quotes

| Quote | Speaker | Timestamp | |-------|---------|-----------| |“Our storefront or white label e-commerce technologies now power more than 350 retailer e-commerce storefronts... every retailer is unique...”|Chris Rogers|01:46| |“That may not sound like a lot of money, but in 2024, merchants paid $83 billion in fees to card issuers.”|John Croteau|04:41| |“Can you imagine how confusing it would be if I walk in with my Chase Sapphire Reserve... and they say, no, we don’t take that, the fee is too high?”|John Croteau|06:07| |“It just feels as though Visa and MasterCard really need to figure out a way to play in a sort of clean, easy to understand, straightforward fashion to keep the market share that has kept them going for so long.”|Ann Berry|08:37| |“If you observe that the markets are statistically very expensive... then the natural thing... is to take action, to at least settle their portfolio in a little bit to where they have a buffer...”|Ted Oakley|10:54| |“Gold... goes through cycles... We think we’re in a pretty good cycle now. I don’t, I’m not certain it’s over... in the long run... I think it could go to a new high.”|Ted Oakley|13:21| |“What it gave me... it gave me a healthy respect for people of all sorts... Probably one of the best things that ever happened to me because I really grew up a lot in the Army.”|Ted Oakley|17:39| |“You always keep your standards high on what you want to own, how you want to do business with people.”|Ted Oakley|18:50|

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------|-------------| | Instacart’s pivot to enterprise tech | 00:31–03:34 | | Visa/Mastercard merchant settlement | 04:05–09:32 | | Ted Oakley interview – markets/risk | 10:07–12:02 | | Commodities & gold discussion | 12:02–14:25 | | Stock picks & bonds | 14:25–17:19 | | Military lessons in investing | 17:19–19:47 |

Summary Takeaways

• Instacart: Shifting from pure delivery marketplace to a tech partner offering e-commerce tools for retailers.
• Credit Cards: Visa/Mastercard settlement could allow merchants to decline high-fee reward cards; may signal more complex and restricted card acceptance, with possible confusion for consumers.
• Market Advice: Ted Oakley advocates for cautious investment in an expensive market, looks to hard commodities (especially energy, gold), select equities, and short-term fixed income.
• Life Lessons: Military experience shapes Oakley’s perspectives on discipline, humility, teamwork, and long-term perseverance in investing.