Brew Markets — November 11, 2025
Episode: Visa, Mastercard, and the Price of a Swipe & Instacart Delivering Tech
Host: Ann Berry
Guest: Ted Oakley (Managing Partner, Oxbow Advisors)
Episode Overview
In this episode, Ann Berry dives into three major stories shaping the markets:
- Instacart’s shift from marketplace to enterprise software under new CEO Chris Rogers.
- The implications of a pivotal settlement between Visa, Mastercard, and merchants that may change how consumers use rewards credit cards.
- A deep-dive interview with asset manager and veteran Ted Oakley, exploring risk in today's market, the value of commodities, and the lifelong lessons of military service.
Instacart's Transformation: Beyond Grocery Delivery
[00:31–03:34]
The Shift to Enterprise SaaS
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Ann Berry spotlights Instacart's Q3 earnings, headlined by strong revenue growth ($993 million) and a $1.5B share repurchase plan.
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Chris Rogers (Instacart CEO) emphasizes a new growth area: white-label e-commerce and enterprise software for grocery retailers, highlighting partnerships with major chains like Costco and Publix.
“Our storefront or white label e-commerce technologies now power more than 350 retailer e-commerce storefronts... every retailer is unique... We’ve built the best grocery-specific platform that can handle that complexity at scale.” — Chris Rogers, [01:46]
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Instacart’s new strategic “pillars”:
- Storefront tech
- Pick and pack automation
- Ad tech for grocers
- Catering services solutions
- AI-powered “smart carts” for in-store recommendations
Ann Berry’s Take:
- The market reacted positively, but she notes financials for these tech segments remain undisclosed.
- Despite innovation, Instacart stock remains down 10% YTD, signaling ongoing investor concern over competition.
- Ann pledges closer scrutiny of Instacart’s enterprise pivot as numbers become available.
Visa & Mastercard Settlement: Are Reward Cards at Risk?
[04:05–09:32]
The Lawsuit and Its Origins
- The case, initiated in 2005, alleged anticompetitive behavior by Visa and Mastercard. A settlement was recently reached (pending final court approval).
- Visa and Mastercard’s combined market cap now nears $1T.
The Fee Structure
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John Croteau explains interchange fees: merchants pay 2–2.5% per transaction, equating to $83B paid to card issuers in 2024 alone.
“That may not sound like a lot of money, but in 2024, merchants paid $83 billion in fees to card issuers.” — John Croteau, [04:41]
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Ann Berry points out that premium rewards credit cards command higher fees, traditionally requiring merchants to accept all Visa or Mastercard products regardless of fee.
The Settlement's Impact
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Under the new deal, merchants could refuse high-fee rewards cards (like airline or luxury cards), accepting only select types.
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John raises concern about consumer confusion:
“Can you imagine how confusing it would be if I walk in with my Chase Sapphire Reserve... and they say, no, we don’t take that, the fee is too high?” — John Croteau, [06:07]
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Ann and John discuss observed trends:
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Retailers charging card processing fees, or offering cash discounts.
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Risks of fragmented payment acceptance for both consumers and retailers.
“At some point, you know what this reminds me of? When I walk now into a CVS or Walgreens... toothpaste is sitting behind a Perspex cover. There are points where I just walk out... can’t be bothered with the complexity.” — Ann Berry, [07:18]
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The deal is not yet finalized (still pending court review); if implemented, it could make high-fee travel/reward card usage more restricted.
The Bigger Payments Landscape
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Ann notes the traditional card networks face mounting threats from newer players:
- Stripe, Apple Pay, PayPal, Cash App, Walmart’s fintech offering.
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Visa and Mastercard down roughly 0.5% on the news, but both up 5% YTD (lagging S&P performance).
“It just feels as though Visa and MasterCard really need to figure out a way to play in a sort of clean, easy to understand, straightforward fashion to keep the market share that has kept them going for so long.” — Ann Berry, [08:37]
Interview: Ted Oakley on Market Risk, Commodities, and Military Lessons
[10:07–19:47]
Market Valuation and Risk
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Ann references Ted’s recent writing, highlighting “madness” and unprecedented risk in markets, with the real economy just “so-so.” She asks: Is it time to be defensive?
“If you observe that the markets are statistically very expensive... then the natural thing... is to take action, to at least settle their portfolio in a little bit to where they have a buffer... because at some point in time, markets always revert back to the mean.” — Ted Oakley, [10:54]
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Ted advises caution:
- Markets at historically high valuations
- Suggests trimming positions, building “buffers.”
Commodities as Opportunity
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Ann asks about alternatives, especially commodities, which have lagged the S&P.
“Over the next 10 years, I think you need some commodity exposure... energy, for example, is the cheapest thing there is right now... you can own fertilizer, iron, copper... hard assets and commodities.” — Ted Oakley, [12:21]
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Ted prefers hard commodities (energy, metals) over soft commodities (agriculture).
Gold’s Surge
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Gold has skyrocketed past $4,000. Ted shares his view:
“Gold... goes through cycles... We think we’re in a pretty good cycle now. I don’t, I’m not certain it’s over... in the long run... I think it could go to a new high.” — Ted Oakley, [13:21]
Stock Ideas and Allocation
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Ann asks for portfolio specifics; Ted shares sample holdings:
- O’Reilly Automotive (aftermarket auto parts)
- Booking Holdings (travel platform)
- Union Pacific (rails, ongoing merger speculation)
- Royalty gold companies (Royal Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals)
- Unilever (consumer staples giant)
Bond Portfolio Construction
- Ted describes Oxbow’s approach:
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Corporate bonds: short maturities (<5 years originally, now ~3.5)
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Short-term Treasuries dominate, avoid long-term government debt.
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Keeps 10–12% of high-income portfolio in corporate bonds.
“We don’t like the long Treasury over the long term... if rates went up significantly, then we’re going to adjust automatically.” — Ted Oakley, [16:18]
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Military Service & Investing Discipline
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Veterans Day Segment: Ann explores what Ted’s Army experience gave him as an investor.
“What it gave me... it gave me a healthy respect for people of all sorts... Probably one of the best things that ever happened to me because I really grew up a lot in the Army.” — Ted Oakley, [17:39]
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Ted on work ethic and resilience:
“When you’re really going through tough army or Marine sort of things... you have to have a grind... In the world of investing... we’re a lot like coaching... you start all over again January 1st... you always keep your standards high on what you want to own, how you want to do business with people.” — Ted Oakley, [18:50]
Notable Quotes
| Quote | Speaker | Timestamp | |-------|---------|-----------| |“Our storefront or white label e-commerce technologies now power more than 350 retailer e-commerce storefronts... every retailer is unique...”|Chris Rogers|01:46| |“That may not sound like a lot of money, but in 2024, merchants paid $83 billion in fees to card issuers.”|John Croteau|04:41| |“Can you imagine how confusing it would be if I walk in with my Chase Sapphire Reserve... and they say, no, we don’t take that, the fee is too high?”|John Croteau|06:07| |“It just feels as though Visa and MasterCard really need to figure out a way to play in a sort of clean, easy to understand, straightforward fashion to keep the market share that has kept them going for so long.”|Ann Berry|08:37| |“If you observe that the markets are statistically very expensive... then the natural thing... is to take action, to at least settle their portfolio in a little bit to where they have a buffer...”|Ted Oakley|10:54| |“Gold... goes through cycles... We think we’re in a pretty good cycle now. I don’t, I’m not certain it’s over... in the long run... I think it could go to a new high.”|Ted Oakley|13:21| |“What it gave me... it gave me a healthy respect for people of all sorts... Probably one of the best things that ever happened to me because I really grew up a lot in the Army.”|Ted Oakley|17:39| |“You always keep your standards high on what you want to own, how you want to do business with people.”|Ted Oakley|18:50|
Timestamps for Key Segments
| Segment | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------|-------------| | Instacart’s pivot to enterprise tech | 00:31–03:34 | | Visa/Mastercard merchant settlement | 04:05–09:32 | | Ted Oakley interview – markets/risk | 10:07–12:02 | | Commodities & gold discussion | 12:02–14:25 | | Stock picks & bonds | 14:25–17:19 | | Military lessons in investing | 17:19–19:47 |
Summary Takeaways
- Instacart: Shifting from pure delivery marketplace to a tech partner offering e-commerce tools for retailers.
- Credit Cards: Visa/Mastercard settlement could allow merchants to decline high-fee reward cards; may signal more complex and restricted card acceptance, with possible confusion for consumers.
- Market Advice: Ted Oakley advocates for cautious investment in an expensive market, looks to hard commodities (especially energy, gold), select equities, and short-term fixed income.
- Life Lessons: Military experience shapes Oakley’s perspectives on discipline, humility, teamwork, and long-term perseverance in investing.
