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JP Morgan has teams to support you at every stage of your growth. As former founders who have worked in local markets themselves, the bankers at JP Morgan bring deep sector knowledge and lived experience to their clients. JP Morgan can help you navigate complexity with confidence, backed by real world insights and an entrepreneurial perspective. Get what your startup needs now@jpmorgan.com growwithoutlimits Jay P. Morgan is the bank of the innovation economy. Walmart, the world's largest retailer, cuts at the cost of hamburgers along with thousands of other items. Can its rivals afford to follow suit? A global perspective. Well, to hear one, I'm joined by Jeannie sun, head of Portfolio advisory at Citi wealth, to give us an inside look at the trends catching her team's eye. And of course SpaceX the post IPO quiet period is over and we survey what the biggest banks finally have to say. For Tuesday, July 7th, it's Brew Markets Daily and Imax Danbury. More market details to come. But first, Wall street analysts are weighing in on SpaceX because today marks the end of the post IPO quiet period, unleashing a wave of initiating coverage reports for many of the banks that underwrote the blockbuster offering and the overwhelming message from them. Bullishness and loudly. Well, here's some of the numbers and comments that didn't only just catch my eye, but actually really left me a little bit baffled by the level of enthusiasm. Let's start with Morgan Stanley, which initiated with overweight and a 300 price target, the highest among the major IPO underwriters. The firm argues that SpaceX is evolving into much more than a launch company, calling it quote the final frontier of AI and highlighting what it describes as an integrated terrestrial, industrial and orbital computing platform that could become foundational AI infrastructure. Meanwhile over at JP Morgan, launching with a $225 price target and an overweight recommendation, the bank justifying its position with confidence in Starlink's cash generation potential and Deutsche bank coming in a little bit higher with a $255 target at a buy rating. Deutsche describing Elon Musk's long term vision of quote making humanity multi planetary as a competitive advantage that that attracts talent and capital. Then over at Goldman Sachs, the bank was more conservative still at a buy rating along with the rest of its peers, but with a $205 price target, arguing that investors should value SpaceX on nearer term execution rather than its most ambitious long range opportunities. Hold that thought. Going to come back to that in a moment. Meanwhile, Citigroup hedged a bit with A buy rating and a $200 price target. But suggesting that there's real upside here. Say that by hitting key engineering mil, particularly Starship and orbital infrastructure, that share price could eventually be driven up to over 900 bucks. And finally, Raymond James, affectionately known on the street as Ray J, sticking its neck out with an 800, yes, 800 price target, arguing that SpaceX could ultimately address a quote 30 trillion dollar market opportunity that spans launch, communications, AI energy and advanced manufacturing. So going all all in there on the long term opportunity and drinking the Kool Aid on total addressable market, otherwise known as TAM. So on the day that SpaceX entered the NASDAQ 100, where did the stock actually end up? Well, surprisingly, given you have all of these analysts saying that this should be trading at 200 bucks plus and given the inflows expected from index tracker funds like QQQ, that needs to track that NASDAQ 100, the share price actually dropped over 6% to around 150 bucks. Still up from its IPO price of $135, but down even further from its peak so far of over $225 back on June 16th. So what's going on? Well, investors seem to be bracing for an influx of new shares. That's a staggered lockup. Expirations will let insiders and early investors sell up to 20% of their holdings after upcoming earnings are released. And that is expected in early August. So we're just a weeks away at this point and there's still the overhang of SpaceX's recent 25 billion dollar bond sale, which has raised concerns in some quarters about the capital intensity of its operations. Not enough concerns clearly to quell the enthusiasm of all those analysts it seems. So on this one we're going to keep on watching. Honestly, I'm just going to say this. I read a whole bunch of these bank research reports today. It's very, very rare that you see the level of enthusiasm and hyperbole perhaps in some cases that you read. So go get your hands on some of, read them if you can because I mean this really does feel like a moment. Well, later in the show, I welcome to the studio today's money mover Genie Sun. But first spin through some headlines from today's trading session. Kicking off with Walmart, one of our favorites, and its push to win over cost conscious shoppers, otherwise known as choiceful shoppers, in some of those earnings transcripts. Well, the world's largest retailer says it's cutting prices on thousands of items across grocery household essentials and outdoor living toys and apparel. And that includes one of the biggest symbols in food inflation, ground beef, which will see its price per pound reduced by as much as 12%.
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And according to the press release, the price of a 24 pack of Coke will be cut by a third to $10. I'm not sure if that's bottles or cans, but 33% off is pretty significant. It's also not clear how Walmart is accomplishing these price adjustments, but at such massive scale, it's possible the retailer is getting discounts from its suppliers. And while the move squeezes Walmart's margins, it may help its market share if retail rivals can't match those discounts. Shares in Walmart Ticker WMT are up nearly 1% today, now moving from carts to cars. Shares in Rivian ticker Rivn are down nearly 15% as investors consider some mixed news out of the EV automaker. On one hand, the company raised its full year vehicle delivery guidance after stronger than expected demand for its R1 vehicles, commercial vans and the launch of the new R2 midsize SUV.
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But on the other hand, Rivian may have spooked investors by announcing a new share offering after Monday's close, the company saying it plans to sell 75 million shares of common stock to raise roughly one and a half billion dollars. Rivian said that the money would go toward, quote, general corporate purposes, including equity requirements for a U S Department of Energy loan to support the construction of Rivian's new electric vehicle manufacturing plant in Georgia. And finally, more headlines this week out of the year's worst performing member of the Mag ST7, which is a Microsoft. Yesterday we discussed the tech giant's massive overhaul of its struggling Xbox Games division. And today it was reported that the company is looking to reduce its AI costs by relying less on outside models.
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That's right, Microsoft is beginning to use more of its own AI models for certain features and products like Excel and Outlook. For now, a small share of the company's AI workload is being handled internally, reported to be about tens of thousands of prompts a week, which is not a lot, but it suggests Microsoft is making progress toward its stated goal of eliminating spend on costly third party models. And for context, on that ambitious Target. Earlier this year, Microsoft was on track to spend nearly half a billion dollars on Anthropic's AI models alone. So shares of the tech company ticker MSFT are up around 1% today.
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Well, it is Tuesday, which means it's money mover day. And as we gear up for the upcoming earnings season. Sort of already started. I'm using this rare bit of quasi downtime to dig into biggest questions coming out of the first half of the year. And to do it, I invited Jeannie sun to the studio. She's the head of portfolio advisory at City Wealth. To share her views from a unique window into what global investors are following. We discuss where to find real opportunities beyond the AI trade and mega cap tech headlines, how Asian investors are deploying capital and how the upcoming U.S. midterm elections might shape the markets later this year. Particularly interesting insight on that note. Well, it's a really interesting forward looking conversation that sets the stage for what could be an eventful second half of 2026. Well, Jeannie, thank you very much for making your way into studio on a muggy, slightly rainy day here in New York.
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Better than the heat wave from better
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than the heat wave. But we're thrilled to have you here. And you know, I spent, I was on a long flight yesterday and I spent a lot of it reading some of your notes and catching up on what the City View is on where folks should be thinking about investing. So today as we're speaking, another big week for tech. We have SpaceX entering the NASDAQ 100. We've got SK Hynix breaking records with a listing here in the United States. When you talk to your clients, Jeanne, what are you talking about? When it comes to thinking through, is now the time to pile into tech or take a beat or get out?
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Sure. Look, tech is still very much at the front of all of our clients minds. It's incredibly hard to escape. Even in the midst of all of the Middle east conflict, it was still oftentimes kind of like that closing question of like, okay, but now that we've gone through the rest of the world, what do you think about AI? And for us, you know, at the end of the day, AI is what's fueling a lot of the underlying earning strength in US Large cap in global markets. When you think about you brought up SK Hynix, but also just in general a lot of what we've seen in emerging Asia. And so for us, I think it's unavoidable that you would want to have some exposure here. But as we've talked about this year, there's sort of kind of the big core players that are really well represented in The S&P 500, for example, you know, I think max seven. But then there's also the beneficiaries of all of the places that they're making investments. And so whether it's semis or memory or other chips, that's been one of the places. But as we think through all the different areas within equity markets, there's been a lot more underneath the surface than just technology. So we wouldn't sell it. We would absolutely want to stay invested alongside. But to say that everything is tech driven is a little bit like not serving the actual underlying components of what we're seeing in fundamentals, in earnings growth. In fact, industrials is one of the best performing sectors this year.
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Let's talk about that. Because when you say industrials, that's a very broad segment as befits the big chunk of the US GDP that it represents. So within industrials, what do you mean by that?
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Yeah, so digging into industrials, one layer, capital goods is actually one of the industries underneath that's been doing really well. Now there is a component of this, this is that's aided by AI investment because some of what you see underneath are some of the names like ones playing in power generation, of course.
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Right. That's all linked back to fueling the data set.
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Yeah, but there's still more going on. What we saw in the Middle east conflict and something that our team has been talking a lot about is this desire to shore up and make much more resilient energy infrastructure overall. Now, some of that is because there's a recognition that there's going to be huge increase in electricity demand, in part fueled by AI, but it's also just general growth being strong. And when you layer on top of that globally that there's a lot of places that the Middle east conflict has highlighted some vulnerabilities to, you know, for us it's been the resilience across diversifying from energy sources. It's not just around carbon and petroleum product. It's also adding things in the renewable space, building out nuclear, which I know we saw some news on at least a couple of weeks ago when I was in Asia, that was a big highlight while I was traveling. But also increasing energy efficiency and efficient usage of electricity, all of those things in culmination are all of the investments that countries around the globe have to make. And when we think about the opportunities here, you know, it wasn't just because of the Middle east conflict. I think it was really highlighted and a light shined on this because of the conflict. But it's an area that was going to require massive investments Anyway.
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Well talk to us about your throwaway comment here. So you're in Asia, tell us where you Were and what you are looking at because it's really fantastic to hear people are on the ground. I travel extensively myself. I go out of my way to try to go to the places that I think the action's at. So where in Asia were you and what was piquing your interest?
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Sure. I was in Asia, in Hong Kong and Singapore, meeting with clients and generally speaking, sharing our views. What I thought was really interesting is our Asian clients are just generally speaking global in nature. Right. When you think about how they've built their wealth, the types of businesses that they run, there is for sure a lot of real estate, but there's also a lot of trade, a lot of shipping. And so they're always thinking about this intersection of policy, geopolitics and investing, which I always find super fascinating for us as a team. Geopolitics and policy uncertainty. When we kind of like what we saw last year with tariffs, that's been really at the forefront. And the traditional conventional language around it is like look through some of the short term volatility and the headline risk and these things tend to work themselves out. And that is generally true. But one of the things that we've been thinking about as a team is in general, where does this create some, let's call it real economy impact?
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Yeah. Where is real, if not permanent, but semi permanent shift happening as well?
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Exactly. And so when we think back to last year's tariff announcements, you know, there was a point when it made it very hard for business owners to think about where would they want to invest their next marginal dollar. Right. The longer you hold off on that, the more challenging the kind of like outlook gets. Now we were able to resolve that. But what we saw in the Middle east, what we've seen globally, generally speaking, policy uncertainty ties the hands of people who are making investment decisions, especially business owners. And that's not something that we think about as positive for a global economy. Now the good news is why this ties back to tech. And I know we're all kind of tired hearing about tech and talking about tech is there are trends in tech, secular growth trends that have to be invested in anyway. And that's why we made the shift last year to being more overweight US Large cap because it's where we had that visibility. But when I talk to my clients in Asia, on the one hand, they recognize that secular trend. They like it better in their backyard. Right. When we think about in Asia, whether it's South Korea or Taiwan, markets that have done tremendously well because they're Beneficiaries of the tech capex. You know, we talk about China, where you have to be a little bit more local and picky and choosy about which companies have exposure, because that's where that intersection of policy really makes a difference, because you want to think about the companies and the micro sectors that the government is really happy to continue supporting.
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So are your clients now thinking that China is investable? Because for a while people weren't sure about China's public equity specifically?
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That's right.
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Your clients are thinking it is investable and they're eager to get there.
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Our clients in Asia have always held positions in Asia, and that includes Chinese equities. You know what was interesting is my boss, Kate Moore, our cio, did take a trip out there in November, and that's actually when you saw a lot of the institutional base kind of coming back. It was mostly closing underweights, if we're being honest. And so at this point, I think there's a little bit more of that kind of like, show me. We go back to fundamentals and where the fundamentals are going to remain strong. So the public markets is still an opportunity, but it's not the broad index. And so this is one of those places where having a manager who's on the ground and can really understand which companies have that Runway to accelerate can make a huge, huge difference. So that's the one, kind of like word of caution, I guess, around investing in Chinese equities, there's a big macro theme where I think the market itself benefited from that closing of underweights. But then where you think about going forward is going to have to be a little bit more company specific and close to the ground in terms of which ones are not going to be, let's call it, in the crosshairs of kind of like Chinese policymakers. The other piece is then when you shine the light on US Policy, I get a lot more questions from our Asian and even our LATAM clients around midterm elections. And what does that look like? You know, it's not something that we have seen too much of in the US because the focus has been so much on Middle east conflict, on inflation. But as we're looking ahead into the fall, that's been one of the areas that our clients outside of the US have been really interested in understanding better because they live every day that intersection of geopolitics and investment.
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More of my conversation with Jeannie sun in just a moment.
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my conversation with Jeannie sun, head of Portfolio Advisory at Citi wealth. And what do you tell them when they ask you about the midterms? What is the house for you at Citi in speaking to clients about what the implications of the midterms might be
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from a CIO perspective? For us, it's about let's understand what's being discussed, what policies are likely to be proposed, and then what is the fundamental impact that might show up in earnings or in the kind of like global economy? Right now there isn't enough clarity on that for us to be able to say one way or another. I think statistically we know that midterm years are years where it's not a great year for equity market performance. Generally speaking, if you think about it, in a four year cycle, this is the most underwhelming year of those four years. But a lot of that is this policy uncertainty. And that's why policy matters. That uncertainty makes it really, really hard for business owners, CEOs, CFOs to make those investment decisions. They kind of want to have a little bit more of that clarity and line of sight. Now the good news is, underneath all of this, the US surveys around CEOs and business owners have generally been relatively optimistic. Our economist today was actually just showing us some of the survey data where CFOs, especially about their own companies, are trending more optimistic than they had been. And it was already relatively high. Now why that matters is because then when you Think about their decisions. They're more likely to hire, more likely to put those investment dollars to work. So it's still a pretty good picture. Midterm elections, dis getting to the other side should provide some of that unlock. And it's just getting between now and then. What's getting put to work is going to be the necessary investment dollars.
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It's going to be here before we know it.
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I know time passes flying.
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There's one geographic area that I wanted to touch on. I'm just back from Europe.
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Yeah.
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And in your latest notes I have in front of me from June 30, quote here, it says we continue to prefer U.S. equity exposure over Europe where the macro backdrop looks weaker.
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Yes.
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What is the House view on Europe and not all of Europe sort of equal. So within that other spots that look a little bit brighter than others.
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Yeah. For kind of like where we stand, the productivity dynamics between US and Europe in general, I would say they're pretty well understood. Right. US has pretty decent productivity growth. And it's been very hard given some of the structural challenges around labor, around kind of like fluidity of capital flows, et cetera, for Europe at large to experience the same. Now, what I think is interesting is as a team, where we talk about opportunities is less about country by country, it's more about sector by sector. And for us, when we go back to the core pillar that we're really focused on right now from an investments perspective, it's fundamentals and it's earnings growth. And what we want to see is where incremental dollars are getting put to work. And you know, this is maybe a little bit of kind of what we saw play out last year. But the defense sector is one of those places where we do feel there is probably more visibility and line of sight into that sector being a beneficiary of more spending. There was a great amount of enthusiasm last year for these big stimulus packages in Europe. Some of the groundwork was laid for being able to do that, but we haven't seen the follow through at large. This is one of the areas where, just given the comments earlier about kind of like geopolitical uncertainty, we have seen more commitment by countries across Europe to spend more money here. And so that's one of the sectors that we think has a little bit more of a Runway now, not without some challenges, because kind of like on the ground, there are different national champions as well. But suffice it to say that there is support to put more money to work here. And so kind of like within the region, this is one of the areas that we'd be looking towards. I would say this is perhaps a little bit more on the fixed income side. We spent a lot of time on equities, but European rates in general seem to be approaching, let's call it, I'm not going to say peak, but they've done a better job pricing in higher inflation expectations or a little bit faster in pricing and higher inflation expectations. It's been a lot more painful on the ground. Right. Just given the reliance on Middle east oil and petroleum products. And so this is one of the areas that might prove to be an opportunity. It's one that we're evaluating as a team.
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And also looking at your note and as you bring up credit, which thank you for doing, because not enough people actually talk about bonds and Treasuries and credit.
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Well, it's been one of these asset classes that has been yours. Soundness and safety. And like you don't really like talking about it usually implies that there's something bad happening there. Right. That's so well put.
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That's exactly right. And it hasn't performed in the ways that we're used to.
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That's right. Right.
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You know, it used to be the safety. It used to be that thing that was reliant. But the sort of correlation between equities and credit has gotten a bit more atypical. And I just again, looking at your Note here from June 30, again, to quote, volatility has spread across equities and currencies, and that's exactly when resilience earns its keep. This is the City Note. Bonds have long served as a portfolio ballast, but their cushion has recently proven less reliable. This is where a comprehensive toolkit matters. This is what caught my eye. For suitable and qualified investors, we believe select alternative strategies across public and private markets can introduce differentiated return sources. So I've got to ask you, private equity, private credit, dare we say hedge funds, is this the kind of time are they going to come back in fashion?
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So let's break that down.
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Yeah.
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One of the things that we talked about as a team is not to think about alternative assets as an asset class, but kind of the role that each one of these things might play. Right. Because when you talked about private equity and private credit, they're meant to do different things. Private equity is more equity. Like it's got a different liquidity profile than buying an etf, but it has that kind of profile where you invest in it to try to grow your assets, whereas private Credit is more meant to help you get yield. Right. Again, different liquidity profile. You're taking on usually some amount of credit risk, but it's more of a yielding and income oriented asset. There's another bucket. So if you have like growth and you've got yield, you also have a different bucket we would call, let's call it diversifiers or uncorrelated assets. And the comment that you're reading is really meant to say in this world we want to think about the whole. Right. Your traditional portfolio construction of 60% equities, 40% fixed income, that worked for a really long time. But as you noted, the correlation between equities and fixed income isn't quite the same that it used to be. So we want to introduce more sources of diversification and correlation into portfolios or correlation benefits into portfolios. And so there are parts of the alternative asset universe. When we think about perhaps some of the call it real assets component, those have historically demonstrated lower correlation to multiple asset classes. Infrastructure, for example, infrastructure, real estate. We would put gold in that bucket, which we did add a position to last year. But I wouldn't paint it with a broad picture. There's certainly been specific dynamics in private credit. We don't think the risks there are systemic, but it is an asset class where once you get past the top level, you really have to care about the actual manager and whether or not they are a discipline manager, whether or not their underwriting standards are to what you expect from them. Because you would be tying up your assets. And the dispersion within that asset class can be really wide from manager to manager, unlike in a more liquid publicly traded asset where the dispersion tends to be a lot tighter.
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So last question for you, Jeanne, and I want to come back to this word that you've used a couple of times and the note mentions several times. It's volatility. We're in a volatile market. We're about to head into earnings season, which tends to be a volatile period in and of itself. What do you think would get the markets to calm down?
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So what's interesting is if you look at the vix, which is your traditional measure of equity market volatility, or fear and greed. And fear and greed. There's a lot of. Yeah, and it can be an indicator of that. It's actually not in fear mode. And so there's been a lot more volatility at a single stock level, which I think actually for us creates a huge amount of opportunities. And so when you have good companies that are Selling off even on days that they beat and raise. It's usually more of a reflection of positioning and kind of like where ownership has been and some profit taking. And understandably so when we think about a lot of the, let's call it presumptive drivers of the market being in the tech sector, there have been times in recent history where a really good earnings does not lead to great equity performance or stock performance that day. And it's in part because a lot of these stocks are well owned. But that means if you haven't owned it, those are good opportunities to pick it up because you just got confirmation that earnings has remained strong. And a lot of these companies not just beat the expectation, but then they're lifting the bar even higher for the future. Now that aside, what's been really interesting for us is less kind of like the equity side because we've actually hit more of the, I would call it complacency and historically people say greed, but we would call it complacency metric because greed would imply to us more of a sell signal. And it's kind of like overexuberance and, and this sense that kind of like more than what is warranted is priced in. But because fundamentals are so strong, a lot of these metrics when you hit them haven't resulted in these massive pullbacks. Pullbacks in general have been really shallow. And so for investors those have been actually good times to put more money to work. Especially when you get some of these kind of like quick and very short lived market corrections. The volatility that's been really interesting is actually on the fixed income side, which again not where you want your volatility to come from. But there was a Wall Street Journal article not too long ago that talked about how volatility gap between equities and fixed income has closed. And they positioned the headline as a. So does that mean that people are too complacent about equities? But when you read the article it was just. But this gap has closed actually because fixed income and interest rate volatility has actually increased.
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Interesting.
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And that's actually one of the things that we probably think will likely continue. You know, one of the drivers is not just kind of like the broad credit in fixed income markets. It's what we saw last month with Chair Warsh saying, you know, don't expect as much guidance from the Fed going forward. And in the absence of that, it would not surprise us to see more volatility as the market kind of response to individual data releases. But the throughput then would be a focus on the fundamental underlying trends, which we do think is actually a positive thing in the long run.
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Jeannie sun, thank you for your insights. The key message I come away with is got to do our homework since we are so fundamentally focused. That is the market in which we live these days. Please come back after earnings season where we've had a chance to see some of this play out.
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Yes, I'm excited too. Thank you so much Anne.
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Thank you. Well, huge thanks to Jeannie sun for joining me here in studio in New York. Well, it's 4:00pm on the east Coast. There it is, the closing bell, the markets wrapping up for the day. We don't have a ticker tape so let's throw it over of course to our human ticker, our producer John that's right.
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Chip stocks dragged the markets lower today after Reuters reported that Chinese AI startup Deepseek is developing its own AI chip, while investors also seemed unhappy with guidance out of Samsung despite the company delivering strong earnings. The S&P 500 finished down half a percent, the Dow was down a third of a percent and the NASDAQ finished down 1 and 2, 10 of a percent for the day.
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Just as a final thought, I want to come back to that comment that John made about Samsung because it feels as though that this earnings season is going to be one to have the popcorn ready for because there's something I just posted. It caught my eye right as the markets are wrapping. Samsung actually did just report a 19 fold rise in profits. Even that couldn't stop investors from getting out of the stock. Today. We're going to see some profit taking. This is going to be a really exciting earnings season. It is a pivotal one for sentiment as we move into the midterms. So get your running shoes on and lace up because it is going to be a sprint over the next eight weeks. That's it for today's Brew Markets Daily.
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Brew Markets Daily is hosted by Ann Berry and produced by John Curto, Tarkab Delatif Avenue, Laroya and Emily Millard. Our Technical director is Uchenawa Ogu, Brittany Dotako is our audio engineer and the President of Morning Brew Inc. Is Devin Emery.
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Wake up tomorrow with the Morning Brew newsletter in Tune in to Neil and Toby on Morning Brew Daily. See you back here tomorrow. Same time, same place.