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Costco Wholesale is raking in cash. So why isn't the market impressed? Opco propcos we bust through the jargon and a looming government shutdown. Why is the market holding steady? For Monday, September 29th is Blue Markets Daily and I'm Ann Berry. More market details to come. But first senators are meeting right now in Washington D.C. in an attempt to prevent a government shutdown which would otherwise begin at one minute after midnight on Wednesday. Now, any shutdown, which will be the first in seven years, will be the result of an inability of the Republicans and Democrats to pass the bill funding federal services into October and beyond. Now the Republicans control both chambers of Congress, but in the Senate they are short of the 60 votes they need to pass a spending bill. Democrats are calling for an extension of expiring tax credits that they say make health insurance cheaper for millions of Americans and for a reversal of cuts to Medicaid that have been made by President Trump. They also oppose spending cuts to the Centers for Disease Control and National Institutes of Health. Now so far the Trump administration seems to have believed that the Democrats will bear the blame if a shutdown happens and is willing to use a shutdown as the reason to permanently let go of some, quote, non essential workers. So why is the market still holding steady despite what appears to be a tumultuous Washington D.C. well, the current market shrug is actually consistent with history. Since 1976, the US has had more than 20 shutdowns and on average the S&P 500 has dipped slightly during the actual closures, not so much during the run up the actual closures. And since we're not yet in an actual shutdown, the market hasn't yet dropped. And when closures have prompted losses, those have modestly been typically been modest and short lived. For example, during the 16 day shutdown in 2013, the S&P fell less than 3% and then it rallied to finish the year up nearly 30% overall. Investors generally assume that shutdowns are temporary political standoffs and the real concern though is confidence because prolonged uncertainty can rattle consumer spending, delay federal contracts and ultimately weigh on GDP growth. Now, the longest shutdown in U. S History actually happened relatively recently in the last Trump administration and it lasted 34 days. And just to put numbers around the impact of that kind of length of shutdown, Goldman Sachs has estimated that each week of a shutdown shaves about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off quarterly growth. Most of that though is often made up with once the government reopens. Still, markets aside, there are real consequences to real people and real businesses. Federal workers go unpaid for the non essential services until back pay is approved. Contractors and small businesses tied to government projects can suffer lasting losses. And markets in recent years have reacted more nervously when shutdown fears collide with debt cells. Ceiling debate that's when we start to get questions about U.S. credit worthiness, about stability. And that's what can shake both equities and treasuries. And so far this year we have in fact seen lukewarm demand for US Treasuries, which is a sign of global concern about the sustainability of the now $2 trillion US fiscal deficit. So we're going to keep watching as that deadline of midnight tomorrow looms to see which moves the market more this federal drama or preparation and frankly, some optimism around the upcoming earnings season. Coming up, we investigate Costco's latest share price moves and Six Flags. What might the theme park player do with all its real estate? But First Brew Markets Daily is sponsored by Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. Now, before the show today, our producer John mentioned a feature he recently found on Public that's right, I've been getting.
