Karl Rove Drops the Receipts on the Texas GOP Primary Runoff

Summary

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Brian Kilmeade Show

Episode: Karl Rove Drops the Receipts on the Texas GOP Primary Runoff
Date: May 26, 2026
Guest: Karl Rove
Host: Guest host Griff Jenkins (filling in for Brian Kilmeade)

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Episode Overview

This episode of the Brian Kilmeade Show, guest-hosted by Griff Jenkins, features renowned GOP strategist Karl Rove for an in-depth breakdown of the Texas GOP Senate primary runoff. The conversation focuses on the high-stakes battle between incumbent Ken Paxton and John Cornyn, the impact of Donald Trump's endorsement, candidate vulnerabilities, and what the race means for the broader political landscape ahead of the midterms. Rove shares exclusive insights, “drops receipts” on developments around Paxton's scandals, and outlines the prospects and dangers for Republicans in Texas as Democrats mount an expensive, aggressive campaign for the traditionally red seat.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The High Stakes in the Texas Senate Primary

• Historic Expense & Importance:
  • The Texas GOP primary is described as “one of the most expensive Senate primaries maybe ever” (00:30).
  • Trump’s endorsement power is front and center—Paxton was expected to lose until Trump intervened.
  • Rove: “He was on his way to defeat until the president came in and endorsed him… He's got a powerful endorsement to give in the primaries.” (01:03)

The Ken Paxton Factor

• Trump’s Decisive Endorsement:
  • Before the endorsement, only 37% of informed voters leaned toward Paxton; 47% viewed him negatively.
  • Post-endorsement, Paxton surged, underscoring Trump’s sway in Texas GOP politics (01:03).
• Paxton’s Political Weakness:
  • Paxton's personal scandals have mounting public records, from misuse of funds to complicated relationships and alleged legal abuses.
  • Scathing details about “multiple girlfriends,” linkages with a corrupt businessman, and evidence from the impeachment records (02:56–05:00).
  • Quote: “We can now have because of the impeachment, the Texans know exactly when he left his house using the Uber account to go to his mistress’s apartment and when he returned from the apartment in the middle of the night...” – Karl Rove (03:28).

The Democratic Challenger: James Talarico

• Talarico’s Liberal Approach:
  • Talarico, a divinity student from a liberal background, seeks to balance his faith with progressive stances, notably on abortion rights (02:16).
  • Audio clip features Talarico: “I trust Texas women to make decisions about their own bodies… I don’t believe that's a place for government or politicians.” (02:28)
• Democratic War Chest:
  • Talarico had raised $41 million by the end of March, compared to Paxton’s $7 million—demonstrating an unprecedented financial advantage (05:12).
  • Rove: “So the Democrats are going to come hard for Texas and money that could be spent in Maine or North Carolina or Michigan or Alaska or Florida or...some of these other contests… is going to have to be spent in Texas.” (05:14)

Risk of a “Blue Texas”

• Changing Political Environment:
  • Historically, predictions of turning Texas blue haven’t panned out, but now there is “real concern,” per Griff Jenkins (05:42).
  • Rove references Ted Cruz’s near-miss against Beto O’Rourke in 2018 as proof Texas isn’t as solidly red as once believed (06:14):
    "Even if Paxton wins, it could be like… Ted Cruz barely held off [Beto O'Rourke], 50.9 to 48.3… Republican turnout was not as energized as it could have been." (06:16)
• Paxton’s Electability Problems:
  • Paxton consistently underperforms vs. other Republicans on the ticket—over 150,000 votes behind the next-lowest statewide GOP candidate (05:18).

Scandals and “The Receipts”

• Legal and Personal Trouble:
  • Details of Paxton “literally appointing a ‘special prosecutor’ whose only job it was to go after the creditors of the corrupt business guys”—a charge likely to feature heavily in Democratic ads (07:15).
  • Paxton’s admission of violating the Texas Whistleblower Act, offloading the $6.7 million penalty onto taxpayers, is described by Rove as “actual receipts” Texans will see, affecting independent-minded voters (09:02).
  • Notable Quote: “Here’s a guy who admitted to violating the whistleblower act… the penalty was $6.7 million. And he said, ‘Well… I’m not going to pay it. I’m going to leave it up to the legislature to pay it on my behalf.’” – Karl Rove (09:02)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Endorsement:
  “He was on his way to defeat until the president came in and endorsed him. You got to give the president credit.” – Karl Rove (01:03)

• On Paxton’s Scandals:
  “We now have, because of the records of the impeachment, the Texans know exactly when he left his house using the Uber account to go to his mistress’s apartment and when he returned… in the middle of the night.” – Karl Rove (03:28)

• On the Democratic Opportunity:
  “The Democrats are going to come hard for Texas and money that could be spent in Maine or North Carolina… is going to have to be spent in Texas.” – Karl Rove (05:14)

• On the General Election Framing:
  “Paxton will be able to go around and say this guy’s a vegan and this guy says God is non-binary and there are six genders. But the Democrats are going to say, you’re a crook.” – Karl Rove (07:52)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00–01:39: Introduction; importance of the Texas Senate primary; Trump’s endorsement of Paxton
• 02:16: James Talarico audio on abortion rights
• 02:56–05:18: Rove details Paxton’s personal and political scandals with specific “receipts”
• 06:14–07:52: Discussion of Texas shifting political dynamics, historical context, and Republican vulnerability
• 09:02: Rove details Paxton’s handling of whistleblower penalty—“admitting to violating” the Act
• 09:33–09:52: Closing remarks on the significance of the 2026 Texas Senate race

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Summary for Listeners

This episode delivers a candid, data-driven look at the Texas Senate GOP primary, exposing the outsized influence of Trump’s endorsement, the weight of Ken Paxton’s scandals, and the extraordinary magnitude of Democratic investment in the race. Karl Rove’s insights make it explicit: despite recent history favoring Republicans, internal weaknesses and national scrutiny are making Texas a battleground state. The outcome, he suggests, could reshape not just the political map of Texas but divert resources and strategies for Republicans nationwide.

Listeners are left with a clear sense of the primary’s gravity and the kind of “receipts” that will dominate the general election narrative in Texas.

Transcript

[A]

Please welcome a man that knows more about Texas politics than any human on the planet, and that is our friend Carl Rove. Hey, Carl, thanks for joining us.

[B]

Thanks for having me, Griff. And is this going to be permanent? Have you forced Kilmeade into exile abroad, something like.

[A]

That's right. I stole. I stole his TV scene. No, he is off on some sort of important crazy Brian Kilmeade mission. And I'm honored that they let me sit in. As you know, I was saying at the very beginning, you know, I was a kid producing radio back in the 90s with Olive north and then Tony Snow. And to be behind a microphone, it's such an honor. And also an honor, honestly, with all seriousness, an honor to talk to you right now about this Texas primary underway right now as you and I are talking, voters are going to the ballot box. But this I think you would know. Correct me if I'm wrong, this is one of the most expensive Senate primaries maybe ever. And it looks like Ken Paxton may be headed towards victory today. And you can't discount that Trump endorsement carrying a lot of weight.

[B]

Well, you have to carry. Give it all credit to that. Polling the day before Trump endorsed the president endorsed Paxton, polling showed that if the among the people who had read, seen or heard about Ken Paxton, 37% said they'd be more likely to vote for him in the primary, and 47% said what they'd heard about him would be less likely. So he was on his way to defeat until the president came in and endorsed him. And you got to get give the president credit. He's got a powerful endorsement to give in the primaries.

[A]

He sure does. And what's fascinating is while we are at the Republican primary today, we sit today 161 days from the midterms. And whether it's Paxton or Cornyn, he's facing off against James Talarico, who, as you heard Paxton there talking about all the crazy things he's been saying, it's almost Carl, like James Talarico turned to Beto o' Rourke and said, hold my beer. Let me show you the crazy stuff I can say. And we pulled the latest one from him. Talarico on a podcast, had this to say, cut 18, guys.

[C]

I think about someone like Pope Francis. I think about someone like Pope Leo. These are spiritual heroes of mine. Both of them are firmly opposed to abortion rights. So we disagree on that issue. I trust Texas women to make decisions about their own bodies, to shape their own destinies in consultation with their family members, their doctors Their faith leaders. I don't believe that's a place for government. I don't believe it's a place for politicians. I don't believe it's a place for the state.

[A]

Where's he going with that, Carl?

[B]

Well, remember the context here. He is a divinity student, attended a Presbyterian divinity school here in recent years in Austin, Texas, very liberal divinity school. And so he is a Christian, albeit of a liberal bent. And so this is how he was squaring his views with the views of the Catholic Church. Having said that, Paxton's right that he's going to go after the crazy things that tell Erico same. But on the other hand, the Democrats are going to go hard at Paxton over the scandals that surrounded him. Remember in 2023, it was Republican state House of Representatives that impeached him. And you know, we know that he's got, he's had multiple girlfriends. One, a corrupt business guy who was found guilty of bank fraud, gave one of his girlfriends a job so she could move close to Austin to be not near Paxton. The club businessman set up a fake Uber account in the name of David P. So we now have, because of the records of the impeachment, we can now have because of the impeachment, the Texans know exactly when he left his house using the Uber account to go to his mistress's apartment and when he returned from the apartment in the middle of the night or maybe didn't appear to return at all because she drove him home in the morning. And here's a guy who admitted to violating the Texas Whistleblower act and then put past the 6.7 million dollar bill onto the taxpayer. So, you know, in the general election this will be Paxton talking about Talarico saying God is non binary and the Democrat backed by an enormous amount of money saying he's a crook. So it's going to be one of the ugliest contests. And one of the things is Paxton is not a good fundraiser. He has raised $7 million through the end of May and at the end of March, TALARICO had raised $41 million. Wow. So the Democrats are going to come hard for Texas and money that could be spent in Maine or North Carolina or Michigan or Alaska or Florida or, you know, some of these other contests, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas instead is going to have to be spent in Texas. And we got a guy who is not a good fundraiser and is also not a good candidate. He, in the last, his last election, he trailed the other six wide statewide Republican candidates by 154,000 votes. And the election before that, he trailed them by 177,000 votes. So, wow, you know, problems with American Home Shield.

[D]

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[A]

plan available as a benefit with select plans. Yeah, I mean, listen, I'm listening to you. And this is why it's so great to have you, because nobody knows this stuff better than you. And it was really a sober realization because we've heard for years that politicians gonna turn red Texas blue, red, Texas blue. And it's not. It doesn't happen. But you're sort of laying out that this is a real concern here. I mean, this could be a very significant challenge, possibly uphill climb for Paxton.

[B]

Yeah. And look, even if Paxton wins, it could be like, remember in 2018, Ted Cruz barely held off Robert Francis O', Rourke, you know, 50.9 to 48.3. It was a close race. Republicans lost two congressional seats and a dozen seats in the state House because the Democrat turnout was grew and the Republican turnout was not as energized as it could have been in 2018. It was President Trump's first midterm. Well, now it's where his second midterm. And even if Paxton wins, which is, I think, very much up for grabs, I mean, when he last ran, we didn't know all of this stuff. We didn't know about misuse of government funds or securities fraud. We're learning stuff today. A guy in for a lawyer in Waco. These Attorney general has some special authorities in sex trafficking cases. And the Attorney General's office was involved in this case in Waco. A lawyer had sexually abused the friend of his child for years and he was found guilty. And the Attorney General's office said, well, let's give him time served, meaning like a couple of days in the pokey rather than 20 years. Even the judge said, I cannot believe that the state is recommending essentially no punishment for this man who committed this horrendous act. Well, guess what? Turned out his lawyer was the same lawyer of the corrupt business guy who gave him the fake Uber account and paid for his girlfriend, his mistress, to have a job in Austin, and for whom the Attorney General did favors. The Attorney General literally appointed a, quote, special prosecutor whose only job it was to go after the creditors of the corrupt business guys. So anyway, the Democrats are gonna if Paxton is the nominee. And look, I say this, I'm a friend of John Cornyn's. I want to be clear about that. I've known him forever. We were young guys together in the Republican Party, Texas, when they, when the state wasn't that Republican. But let's not kid ourselves. Paxton will be able to go around and say this guy's a vegan and this guy says God is non binary and there are six genders. But the Democrats are going to say, you're a crook. And let's talk about the specifics. It's not going to be a pleasant year for Republicans in Texas if he's the nominee.

[A]

And what you're describing there is what we call bringing the receipts. It's not just accusation you're making to sort of, you know, taint the, the candidate as being possibly poor character judgment. This is actual receipts. This is hard stuff that Texans are going to look at because Texans, yeah. I'll give you this. You guys are independent minded. You're going to, you're going to do you love Donald Trump. Trump's very popular in Texas, but you are independent minded voters. And they're going to see this stuff.

[B]

Yeah. And look, you know, here's a guy who admitted to violating the whistleblower act, but he did so after delaying it and delaying it and delaying it and so that he would not be put under oath and forced to testify in it. And finally, you know, when all of those legal opportunities ran out, he said, okay, I admitted I violated the whistleblower act and this and the penalty was $6.7 million. And he said, well, you know what? I'm not going to pay it. I'm going to leave it up to the legislature to pay it on my behalf. Wow.

[A]

We'll see where this goes. Karl Rove, my friend, thank you for joining us as always. Great insight.

[B]

Thank you.

[A]

And we may be talking about that Senate race as the midter have come up, more so than any other in the country, if this is really how it plays out.

[B]

Yeah. All right, well, thanks again for having me and congratulations for filling in.

[A]

Thank you, Carl. Have a great day.