Senator Steve Daines Warns: Trump's Agenda Demands a 2026 Senate Majority

Summary

Brian Kilmeade Show: Senator Steve Daines Warns—Trump’s Agenda Demands a 2026 Senate Majority

Date: June 16, 2026
Host: Brian Kilmeade
Guest: Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), outgoing Senator, former Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Brian Kilmeade welcomes outgoing Senator Steve Daines of Montana for a wide-ranging conversation on pressing foreign and domestic policy issues, with a primary focus on the political stakes for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections. Daines argues that retaining the Senate majority is essential for advancing former President Trump’s agenda in the latter half of his second term. The discussion covers the Iran deal, US energy prices, messaging strategy for Republicans, key Senate races, the ideological trajectory of the Democratic Party, and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Iran Deal and Trust of Regimes (00:18–02:01)

• Daines expresses deep skepticism about current negotiations with Iran, referencing both history and personal business axioms:
  • “Your past performance is a good indicator of future results. …47 years of history, it doesn’t give me much confidence I can trust the Iranians to deliver on an agreement.” (Senator Daines, 00:44)
• He reserves judgment on the deal details but voices concern over unfreezing billions in funds.
• Notes one positive: falling oil prices (“seeing oil prices dropping to the upper 70s … lowest prices since March” at 00:54), seeing this as a “high priority” for Americans at the pump.
• Separates the Iranian regime’s trustworthiness from the will of the Iranian people, who he believes desire change.

2. 2026 Senate Majority as Critical for Trump’s Agenda (02:36–03:55)

• Daines underscores the vital importance of Republicans retaining both Senate and House majorities for Trump’s final two years:
  • “Without that, President Trump will not be able to deliver anything in his last two years.” (03:07)
• Emphasizes the stakes regarding appointments: Supreme Court, circuit and district judges, ambassadors, and cabinet officials.
  • “If we lose the Senate … lifetime appointments, we will not be able to move forward with President Trump’s nominees. It’s pretty chilling…” (03:13)
• Warns that the ripple effects could influence governance well into the next presidential term post-2028, given six-year Senate terms.
• Noted urgency: “We’re what, 100 days from early voting… This election could have profound consequences…” (03:35–03:53)

3. Closing the Polling Gap and Republican Messaging (03:55–05:32)

• Daines remains optimistic about reversing a five-point Democratic lead in generic ballots:
  • “I’m objective, Brian. I’m an engineer by degree. I’m a numbers guy. Elections are about numbers.” (04:14)
• Believes there’s time to sway undecided, independent, and soft partisan voters, especially if Republicans contrast present conditions with “what used to be.”
• Focuses on tangible issues such as border security and gas prices: “Get those oil prices down, get that gas price down more than three bucks, not the four buck range. That’ll be an important part of the affordability message…” (04:48)
• Warns that Democrats’ messaging advantage is not insurmountable: gap was higher in 2018.

4. Senate Races & Democratic Party Drift Left (05:32–07:02)

• Highlights Michigan as the “best pickup chance” for Senate Republicans with Mike Rogers running:
  • “This is a referendum on between common sense and crazy. The best argument we have… is the Democrats … are absolutely moving so far to the left.” (06:15)
• Labels Democratic candidates as “socialists” and “crazy”: “In Michigan, for the Democrats, they’ve got crazy running…” (06:29)
• Recalls near-nomination of Bernie Sanders in 2016 as evidence of Democrats’ leftward drift:
  • “Bernie Sanders is a self-identified socialist. … They’ve gone a lot further left than where they were back in 16.” (06:41)

5. Ukraine War: Strategy and Aid (07:02–09:42)

• Notes Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes, including striking a refinery near Moscow.
• Advocates for allowing Ukraine to take offensive action, including building and deploying advanced weaponry:
  • “They need to have the ability to go on offense. … If they need long range missiles, let them have it. … The Ukrainians will not be able to win this war unless they can go on offense.” (07:27, 07:44)
  • Supports granting licenses for Ukraine to produce Patriot air defense systems: “I would support giving the Ukrainians the permissions they need to play on offense.” (08:13)
• Contrasts Putin’s tactics (striking civilian and historical sites) with Zelensky’s focus on military targets:
  • “Putin is not bearing anything. He’s … on full offense. The Ukrainians should be allowed to equally go on offense against the Russians.” (08:34)
  • “There really is [a difference]. I mean Putin is an evil thug, we know that. … The Ukrainians … will take the high road here…” (09:12)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On trusting Iran:
  “If I look at the past performance of the current regime … it doesn’t give me much confidence I can trust the Iranians to deliver on an agreement.”
  (Senator Daines, 00:44)

• On the urgency of the 2026 Senate race:
  “Without [a GOP majority], President Trump will not be able to deliver anything in his last two years … This would be a major crisis for the country.”
  (Senator Daines, 03:07–03:20)

• On messaging for Republicans:
  “This is going to be an election about looking at what used to be versus what is.”
  (Senator Daines, 04:22)

• On the Democratic Party’s ideological shift:
  “Democrats … are absolutely moving so far to the left. … Bernie Sanders is a self-identified socialist. That’s where the Democrat Party is. But they’ve gone a lot further left…”
  (Senator Daines, 06:16, 06:41)

• On Ukraine’s strategy:
  “The Ukrainians will not be able to win this war unless they can go on offense. They need the capability to do so.”
  (Senator Daines, 07:44)

• On contrasting Russia and Ukraine’s war conduct:
  “Putin is an evil thug … Ukrainians … will take the high road … striking strategic assets of the Russians relating to the military complex.”
  (Senator Daines, 09:12)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• Intro and Iran deal discussion: 00:00–02:01
• Sanctions & GOP election stakes: 02:01–03:55
• Polls & Republican strategy: 03:55–05:32
• Senate races & Democratic Party direction: 05:32–07:02
• Ukraine war and US aid policy: 07:02–09:42

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Summary Takeaway

Senator Daines uses the episode to stress the critical legislative and ideological battles looming in the 2026 elections, voicing deep concerns over US credibility abroad, economic pressures at home, and the direction of both American political parties. The conversation blends campaign strategy with urgent foreign policy, punctuated by Daines’ signature blunt assessments and calls to maintain momentum for the Republican agenda under a potential Trump second term.

Transcript

[A]

Let's bring in a senator that sadly is not going to be there much longer. Senator Steve Daines, who decided not to run for reelection this year, of Montana. And of course, Steve Daines is on the Foreign Relations Committee. He is a busy guy on energy as well as finance. Senator, welcome back.

[B]

Hey, Brian, always good to join you.

[A]

All right, first off, there's so much information out there on the deal. Some really disturbing stuff that doesn't look at Radcliffe, Rubio and Hegsett they're read in on. And I'm sure you've seen that Axios story and the 325 billion DOL that could be going. 25 billion. 24 billion unfrozen for Iran and 300 billion from the Arab states. I hate that idea. Do you?

[B]

Well, Brian, before I got involved in politics, I worked for Procter and Gamble. It was one of the great American companies. I worked there 13 years in management. And one of our principles when we were hiring was your past performance is a good indicator of future results. If I look at the past performance of the current regime, regime In Iran post 1979, 47 years of history, it doesn't give me much confidence I can trust the Iranians to deliver on an agreement. So I start with that concern. Now, I have not seen the details yet of all the agreement. I'll tell you what I like. At the moment, I'm seeing oil prices dropping to the upper 70s. Brian, we haven't seen oil prices. West Texas Intermediate, Brent, right Now we're at 77, 79 bucks. These are the lowest prices we've seen seen since March. And so getting relief at the gas pump for the American people, surely a high priority. But I know for President Trump it's going to be restoring peace and stability in the Middle East. I'll wait to see the details, but I just don't trust the current regime. The Iranian people, they're a different story. They would like to see a different regime as well. Let's see what the details are and the deal when it finally emerges.

[A]

Right, so here's the president cut to.

[B]

Does the deal involve any sanctions relief for Iran? When would that go? No, it doesn't. Well, they have to. It's really a behavioral thing. If they do what they're supposed to

[A]

do, that starts taking effect. Right. But when you say behavior, how much detail do you have in the MoU? And then after Friday gets released, they start talking for 60 straight days. And if Iran does what Iran does, you concern Senator Daines for your party. Even though I know you're outgoing. That, that'll be right in August.

[B]

Well, look, I was chairman of the National Republican Senatorial committee in the 24 cycle, worked very close with President Trump to get the majority back. Brian, there's many ways, nothing more important right now than making sure we keep the Senate majority in 26 November, as well as keep the House majority. Without that, President Trump will not be able to deliver anything in his last two years. Think about this. If we lose the Senate, this, if there's a Supreme Court opening, a circuit court judge, opening a federal district judge, all lifetime appointments, we will not be able to move forward with President Trump's nominees. It's pretty chilling when you think about that. Not to mention any future ambassadors nominated by the president, Cabinet officials, deputy secretaries, you know, people equals policy. And the inability to fill, for example, come back to the Supreme Court. This would be a major crisis for the country. And so this is why the US Senate, as well as the House matters so much in November. So this is all part of what has to between now and November. You think about, we're what, 100 days from early voting starting in some places in this country. This election is right around the corner. And this election could have profound consequences not only for the next two years, but these are Senate seats that you hold for six years would affect whoever the next president is going to be starting in 29.

[A]

I know, I hear you. And the policies are better, but it's got to get the messaging out there, I guess in the generic ballot from the political people, it looks like Democrats have a five point lead. It was much bigger in the midterms in 2018 for or president in Trump's first term. You think five is a gap you can close?

[B]

I do. And I'll tell you, I'm objective, Brian. I'm an engineer by a degree. I'm a numbers guy. Elections are about numbers. But there's time to bring these undecided voters and some of these independents and soft Ds and soft Rs back home to the right side. This is going to be an election about looking at what what used to be versus what is. We've got to remind the voters of what the world was like two years ago, what the world was like with a wide open border here, certainly with the Mexico and the United States. We just have to come back and remind them what it was with Biden and Kamala Harris. Imagine if Kamala Harris and Tim Walz were vice president right now. That's scaring everybody. Right back to the Republican side of the ticket. But this will be a very important election and I'm confident we have time. But what will really help us certainly is get those oil prices down, get that gas price down more than the three bucks, not the four buck range. That'll be an important part of the affordability message here coming into November. Cheers to America's 250th birthday. Get 20% off your first purchase at foxnewswineshop.com with code FNRADIO 2020% discount excludes wine club offers and cannot be combined with any other promotion. Expires July 31, 2026. Must be 21. Order to order. Please drink responsibly.

[A]

I hear you. Right now they say according to Politico put out today, 140 days left, the president's got a 39 approval rating. NBC had him at 42. And 49% of voters in a survey said they prefer a Democratic Congress next year, the highest percentage since Trump began his second term. But it was much the gap was much larger before 2018 as I mentioned. So let's talk about the individual seats. Mike Rogers seems to be the best pickup chance over in Michigan, correct?

[B]

Yeah, he is. He's a candidate that we were fully behind the 24 cycle. Remember, he lost by less than 20,000 votes in 24. And Brian, when you look at what's going on in Michigan and frankly nationally, this is a referendum on between common sense and crazy. The best argument we have, Brian, is the Democrats, they are absolutely moving so far to the left. And in most of our races we've got common sense Republicans as our nominees. And Mike Rogers is an example of that. And in Michigan for the Democrats, they've got crazy running on their well, you

[A]

got socialists, you got crazy. It's remarkable.

[B]

But you know, Brian, it's worth remembering, I remind my colleagues this back in 2016, the Democrats were just a hair's breadth away from nominating Bernie Sanders instead of Hillary Clinton for their nominee. Bernie Sanders is a self identified socialist. That's where the Democrat Party is. But they've gone a lot further left than where they were back in 16.

[A]

Sandra, I got to bring you to Ukraine. The president's met with Zone Zelensky already today. There's a buzz that Ukraine has really reversed things in the battle. They've taken 180 square miles back. They just blew up a refinery deep into Russia. I think around Moscow. They've done this quite often and they've engineered this themselves. Would you be in support of giving Them, the patriots they need or allowing them to have the license to build their own.

[B]

They need to have the ability to go on offense. And I remember this was a big fight we have with the Biden administration when this war first broke out on Joe Biden's watch. And by the way, Brian, I'm convinced had Trump been in office during that same period, Russians would not have invaded Ukraine. But here we are. But remember, we were pushing Joe Biden saying let the Ukrainians take the offense. If they need long range missiles, let them have it. Remember they got scared by Putin's rattling the saber here about nuclear escalation. Baloney. The Ukrainians will not be able to win this war unless they can go on offense. They need the capability to do so.

[A]

So would you be for giving them the licenses to do it? I guess Iran gave Russia the license to build their own shahed. Can we give them the license to build their own patriots? Since we seem to be backed up,

[B]

I would support giving the Ukrainians the permissions they need to play on offense. There's no way the Ukrainians will win this war by only playing defense. If you look at what happened just last night, the barrage of missiles that Putin launched on Kyiv, including striking that amazing church that is a UNESCO site that got hit last night. So Putin is not bearing anything. He's throwing, he's going on full offense. The Ukrainians should be allowed to equally go on offense against the Russians.

[A]

So what you're saying this is important. Contrast Putin's aims for a monastery that's 1,000 years old and you have Zelensky aiming for a refinery just to stop the weapons. The weapon, the machine, the war machine that Russians have. They are aiming for apartment buildings. He's aiming for war sites. There's a huge difference.

[B]

There really is, Brian. I mean Putin is an evil thug, we know that. And you've got to allow the Ukrainians, which they will take the high road here in striking strategic assets of the Russians relating to the military complex. While Putin here, as you just articulated, Brian, is hitting civilian targets, innocent men and women dying in Ukraine each night. And just last night I think there were at least five more people killed in Ukraine. Innocence there in Kiev.

[A]

Senator Steve Daines, thanks so much. Always great to talk to you.

[B]

Thanks, Brian.