
Hoop Collective: 1st MVP Straw Poll - Historic Race Coming?
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Hello and welcome to the HOOPP Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA, which we are doing at a special time this week because today is a special day. Joining us from Los Angeles at the LAPC LA PC operations center for ESPN is Tim Bontemps.
C
Hello, everybody.
A
Joining us from Dallas, Texas, McMahon. He had to go to LA because it's a special time. It's a special week. His band, McMahon.
D
Howdy, partners. This is prime time for bong temps. You know, he's got to be in studio in the spotlight. This is the old USWB's time to shine, baby.
A
That's right. So here we have fresh just before Christmas, one of our three special days of the year where the Bontemps MVP straw poll is debuted. The poll has routinely, over the last seven, eight years. Bontemps last several years, okay, routinely accurately predicted the not only the MVP winner, but pretty much pretty close to the actual ratios of the selections. And so Bontemps made his straw poll amongst the MVP probable MVP voters earlier this week. And I will let you say what the methodology was, but I think the key thing to point out and why this poll has been proven valuable is not because of Bontemps charm or his loquaciousness.
C
Clearly, those things are not true. So they would definitely not be that.
A
Yes, it's because the MVP award is done across all 28 NBA cities with a selection of local media, not just writers, but also broadcasters and radio people and national media and in some cases international media. And Bontemps surveys that entire field. So it is not just his friends, because he'd never get 100 votes.
D
We wouldn't get. We wouldn't get a dozen.
C
Wouldn't be close. Somebody said to me, you're the only person that can do this because you have that many friends across the league. I said, no, I'm just the only person annoying enough to get honored people to respond to me.
A
Right? You can get it done. All right. So with all that, Mr. Bontemps, I turn it over to you as the first of three planned Bontemps polls. I believe it's three, right? You do three?
C
Yeah, there'll be three.
A
The first of three is ready.
C
Yeah. And because Devon, one of our super producers, was asking me what the methodology is and how this works before we started, just in case people don't know. As you said, we try to go through and replicate what the end of season voting pool is, which is we have people from all 28 NBA markets voting and then on top of that we have national media voting, including the two jokers on the pod with me, and then international media from across the world to try to do our best to show where the race sits at this point in time. Obviously gets more solid towards the end of the year. And I double checked, it's been six years in a row that we've had the right answer at the end of the season. So we'll see if it's seven or.
D
You just been doing it for six years.
C
The first year I did it, the very first year in the Washington Post of 2017 When I came up with the idea, it was the year pardon Russell, Kawhi and LeBron went down to the end and Harden was ahead in the straw poll. I did one straw poll in March, like six weeks before the season ended and Harden was in first and obviously Russ had the memorable triple double season, had the crazy game in Denver and at the end it broke towards him at the end. So that's the one that was wrong. But after that the rest of them have been accurate. But there was a gap year in the middle. So we're on six years in a row. So all that being explained and out of the way, we'll start at the bottom. 14 guys got at least one vote. Three players got a single fifth place vote. Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson, one fifth place vote. Had a very good season for the Hawks.
A
I respect it. I respect it.
C
Cavs corner gets represented. Donovan Mitchell had one fifth place vote.
A
I respect it. But it's a tough sell. It's a tough sale right now.
C
It's a tough sell. And it's a tough sell for the guy who also got 1 5th place vote despite also being awesome. Stephen Curry, Golden State warriors he also got 1 5th place vote. Obviously Steph and Donovan have had great individual seasons. Their teams have been far less than that, especially lately. Sort of similar for Jalen Johnson. He's really broken through, had a great year. But those, those three guys. Yeah, he said four or five already. But those, those, those three guys tied for 12th with one fifth place vote each 11th place, one fourth place vote, two fifth place votes, three total, five total points. Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards. I was a little surprised Ant didn't get more votes than this. Obviously Minnesota's had as We've talked about an up and down season. He's missed the last couple games with this foot issue. I wouldn't be surprised if Ant moves up a little bit more in the next one. If Minnesota gets its act together and starts beating some winning teams. There also are some guys ahead of him who could.
A
Is it, is it fair to say that Ann Edwards is underrated as a player for a guy who's all over commercials and stuff, I think, I think he's underrated by the way. He's, He's. I'm sorry, McMahon, go ahead.
D
Was he first or second team all NBA last year?
C
Anthony Edwards, I believe was first.
A
No, he wasn't first. He wasn't first team. But. But this year, Bontemps, he's averaging a career high 29 points, shooting a career high 50% from the field, a career high 42% on three, averaging four assists, one and a half steals a game, shooting 83% from the line. So right now doing 50, 40, 80 on career highs and points. And you know, like I, I'm not so much in this. I'm not just saying MVP because I'm not arguing he should be an MVP serious candidate, but I just think in general he doesn't get, you know, and I don't know if it's a Minnesota thing, but he doesn't. This is a guy who's one. Like, I think he should be more popular than he is. You think I'm off McMahon.
D
Well, second team all NBA the last two years. Just check that. And I think that's about where he is. I do think he's very popular. I mean every time you turn on a game, the commercial.
A
I don't think so.
D
Whether it's.
A
I've seen some. Without going into. Yeah. Without going into details. His metrics show that he's. I think he should be more popular.
D
I guess like jersey sales and, and yes.
A
And various metrics internally, espn, et cetera, that I'm not going to get into. He doesn't have as much support as other guys who I think have lesser resumes.
C
So one, one slight tweak because I had a typo in this. The Donovan Mitchell is actually 10th with one fourth place vote and three fifth place votes, four total points.
D
That's it. That's rich.
A
Well, did answers get knocked down while I was talking?
C
Yeah, no. Ant was what I, I had Donovan Mitchell's name in here twice because I accidentally didn't have the name of the one other person who had 1 5th place vote. It wasn't Donovan Mitchell, it was Alparan Shangoon, Rocket center who's had a very obviously a great year. We talked about him a bunch from Turkey A yes, we talked about him a bunch on Wednesday's pod, obviously for his play late in that game against Nicole Jokic in the Nuggets on Monday. So he had he was tied for 12th with Stefan Jalen Johnson, Anthony Edwards 11th 5 total points Donovan Mitchell 10th 6 total points in 9th place, 2 4th place votes, 9 5th place votes, 11 total votes, 15 total points Jaylen Brown, Celtics guard or Celtics forward swing man having his best season of his career by a mile. Obviously the number one offensive option for Boston. His points, rebounds and assists are all career highs. Field goal percentage is career highs. He's shooting a ton, carrying a huge load for Boston. You know, the Celtics went on this recent nice surge. Got himself some consideration at the bottom of the ballot. Not sure he's going to get much higher, but I think it's good recognition of the start to the season he's.
A
Had, I should say. Brad Stevens spoke to the media in Boston. He hasn't done that since I think the season. And of course he got out. He was very praised. He thinks the team's doing very well, all things considering. Praised Jaylen Brown, praised some of the other players. He was of course asked for a timeline on Jayson Tatum. He of course didn't give one. He did list off a whole bunch of steps that Tatum still has to go through. You know, he's not he doesn't have the clearance for the strength yet to do any sort of real activity. But he pointed out that they have not applied for the disabled player exception.
C
Yeah, that is correct.
A
I don't think they were going to spend that money anyway.
C
But he actions over words.
A
Right. And he pointed that out. So let that be just a little comment on the Celtics.
D
And the Celtics are exceeding expectations given the circumstances. And not just Tatum not being on the floor, but the trades that they made over the summer to shed salary. And that's in large part because Jaylen Brown is having a fringe MVP candidate type of year.
C
Yeah. And look like we've talked about before, if Tatum can come back and be some facsimile of his former self with Jarrick White, with Jalen Brown, with Pat Peyton Pritchard, the Celtics are going to be a team no one's going to want to play at least in the east playoffs. Not saying they're going to win three rounds, but they will be a difficult out with the way they play the toughness they have the playoff experience they have, so that'll be interesting. More Hoop Collective podcast after this.
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All right, 8th place 1 third place vote 3 fourth place votes 4 fifth place votes 8 total votes 18 total points spurs center Victor Wembanyama we now start to get into the part of the ballot where there's a couple different guys who could easily wind up not being eligible. Victor certainly is going to be a candidate for that. He's already missed 12 games. He does by playing in the NBA cup championship game. Get an extra game. So that's the only thing that counts for is the 65 game rule that could obviously come into play. That means he can miss 18 games instead of 17. And there is a little wiggle room you have for minutes played if you're injured, etc. So maybe he could stretch an extra game or two beyond that. But certainly if Victor could stay healthy the rest of the season, he's going to have a great chance to win Defensive Player of the Year. And he certainly has got a chance to be in the mix for this award. And if he does stay healthy between now and the second poll a couple of months, the way the spurs are playing would not surprise me if he's a lot higher next time.
D
Yeah, I'm one of the fifth place votes there. Full transparency. You asked for my vote on Monday. So pretty fresh off of his performance in the NBA cup semifinals and basically I came to the conclusion that look, if he's eligible now, then I'm going to vote right now. Not on percentage of games, but he's, he's eligible for the award right now. So.
C
Which is what I tell people. The, to me, I don't, I don't believe in. Well, the guy's on pace to not qualify. So it doesn't matter. Like if you're eligible, you're eligible to be voted for.
D
Yeah, and I like that like his two way impact is that massive despite the fact that these spurs did go nine and three without him, which I don't think hurts his case as much as I think it tells you that the spurs are to be taken seriously.
C
I figured Brian would want to talk.
A
About his, I mean I, I, you know, he's played 13 games so far. I guess 14. He's got really good numbers. I think if the spurs are a top four team in the west, which would be a tremendous accomplishment, I honestly think if they're a top six team, they should have a little private party. But if they're a top four team in the west, it will be because he's had a great season and if they're a top four team in the west, he should, he'll have a great chance, I think, to get on the top five. And frankly if you, considering the level of talent, if you can get on the top five in this current environment when so many other guys who are MVP candidates are already MVP winners and are still in their prime, I think it will have been amazing and I think that would be incredible accomplishment for him.
C
And to McMahon's point though, to McMahon's point though, they are on pace to be a top four team. I think they got a very good chance to be a top four team and half the time that has been done with him not playing. So while I agree with you and I think what we said before the season, if they're a top six team, Victor is going to be probably first team all NBA. And on MVP ballots like that, the way the season's gone is also, as we've talked about a bunch over the last week, been a recognition of the fact that the spurs are arriving faster to the station than we anticipated. They Would.
D
And look, if he. If he has 65 games, he's going to be defensive player of the year. That's the only question is if he. Yeah. He's eligible or not. 100% dominant defensive force in the league. And I. There's not a case against that. Wendy, did you give him one of your votes? One of your.
C
I don't vote.
D
Okay, so I don't vote in the actual thing, but. So we just.
C
Yeah, that's what you think.
A
How do you know this year you won't be invited on that?
D
I talk trash about Notre Dame football to a very important person. Kind of rub his face, man.
C
Keeps up his status of. Of whining about things, but then making. It's like.
A
It's like me with pass. I just continue to keep complaining about it. I don't do anything to address it.
D
I recently gave a referee the too small gesture while I was seated at the scores.
C
That is. That is also a fact. All right.
A
We both recently did that. And in the moderate past and in the distant past, I was going to.
C
Say very consistent theme. As consistent as the straw poll. All right. In seventh place, 1. Third place vote 4. Fourth place votes 8. Fifth place votes, 13 total votes, 25 total points. First time entrant in the straw poll. Oh, got any guesses?
D
First time entrant in the straw poll. That is a good clue here.
C
It's having a monster year.
D
Cade Cunningham's had to have been in this before.
C
Cade is. Cade is in the poll, but is not the answer.
D
Tyrese Maxey.
C
Tyrese Maxey. Another Dallas guy. Yeah, Tyrese Maxey. Obviously having a phenomenal season. Yes, having a phenomenal season. Obviously one of the league leaders in scoring has missed the last couple of games with an illness, but with all the ins and outs for Paul George and Joel Embiid and all these other guys on the Sixers, maxi has been the driving force behind them having a pretty nice, surprising start to their season. And, you know, I don't know if he's. He certainly got a chance to be an all NBA player at the end of the year and, you know, look, I'm not sure he's going to get much higher than this, but if he keeps playing like this and the Sixers remain in the hunt for a top six spot in the East, Terry Smacks, he's going to remain, on balance, I would guess, through the season.
A
You know, I didn't even consider him at fifth and I'm glad. This is one of the things that, you know, the straw poll Helps the voters, too. Like, I, I, there's no reason not to, but I didn't consider him.
D
Yeah, no, I honestly didn't either. I went with Wimby, but I considered the other two guys that I considered were Jalen's.
C
Yes, well, we'll get to another Jalen in a second.
A
There's been multiple Jalens in this poll already.
C
Well, what we've, we've named one. Actually, we named two.
D
Yeah, that's right. Not Johnson, but yes, Brown. And the guy we're about to get to.
C
The guy. The guy we're getting to. All right, so sixth place one, third place vote, eight. Fourth place votes three. Fifth place votes, 12 total votes and 32 total points. That would be Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is the only player who's been in every single edition of the straw poll going back to 2017 and who is in pretty serious danger of that streak ending because of the injuries he has had. And, you know, I think if he had, if he had not suffered this second, the second injury a couple weeks back or a week back, my guess is he would have been third or fourth and on just about every ballot. Instead, he is hurt again. He may not be eligible by the time we get to the new year, and as a result, he's a fringe guy now. But if he does come back and does stay healthy, the numbers he's putting up again, he's another guy that could easily skyrocket up this thing in a couple of months if he's still eligible to be voted for.
A
I did not put him on my ballot. Even though I, I agree with McMahon, I kind of am going to adopt your premise, McMahon, if you're eligible now, I think you should. But I, that said, I didn't put him on my ballot, probably for the first time in years, because I didn't think he would be eligible.
D
So I was going to say I was, I was a hypocrite here because, you know, Wimby had come back and is going to be on the floor hopefully for the rest of the season with a game off here and there. I don't think Giannis is coming back soon. I wonder if Giannis is coming back in a Bucs uniform. So I didn't put him on my ballot because I'm not forecasting him to be eligible. So I will acknowledge that that is being a hypocrite, but that was my life.
A
I take it all back. I take it all back.
C
All right, so fifth place, five third place votes. So still no first or second place votes 13. Fourth place votes 42. Fifth place votes 60 total 106 total points. We have any guesses on who this is?
D
I'm going to say this is the other Jalen. This is the Emirates cup mvp.
C
That is correct. Emirates Cup MVP Jalen Brunson.
D
Which reminds me, I do have a suggestion.
C
Okay, more suggestions.
D
I think that the straw poll winner, the first straw poll winner, the second straw poll winner, I think they should, like, at least put helium in a balloon and raise that to the rafters.
A
Would you tie the balloon off with a ribbon?
D
Sure. I like that. So, you know, it doesn't have to stay up forever, but at least that'll be up there for a little while.
A
I had Jalen fifth on my ballot, by the way. I suspect Bontemps. This is the first guy that I voted for that my five people were in the top five. But I would.
C
I would guess so. I would say. I think it's a safe guess.
A
Mike Brown came out after the game last night and called on the media to start including Jaylen Brown more in the mvp. Jalen.
D
That was after the semifinal.
C
He's done that repeatedly over the past week or so. That's not a new first.
A
He belched because he had thrown down some beer and then he. And then he called for more attention to.
D
What kind of beer is Mike Brown drinking back there?
A
Good question.
D
See, that's kind.
A
What kind of beer do you think? You know, you're the beer expert.
C
Whatever the. I would guess whatever the sponsor was. McUltra. Not a sponsor.
D
That's not. That didn't really make you burp. It's not strong enough. I bet she's a Mexican lager guy. I know Kerr's a Mexican lager guy and he was on that Kerr staff.
A
Yeah. You think. You think some Modelo? Is that what you're thinking?
D
Yeah.
C
Safe bet.
A
Is Modelo readily available in New York City?
D
Bontems everywhere.
C
Yes, of course.
A
Just asking.
C
What do you mean? It's the world's greatest city. I'm not a beer including Modelos. That is true. But yes, you can get modelos there among.
A
You know, it was hard to get. When I lived in New York City, it was hard to get Mexican chorizo. You'd go to these restaurants and they claimed to have chorizo and it was Spanish chorizo.
C
Yes. Kayvon, who is from California, does not. Is not a fan of the fact that there's no. There's no good Mexican nearby. There's a. There's a Mexican place near our apartment. And whenever we walk by, she gets very mad because it is full of people and she is not a fan of the. The food there.
A
I'm going to second that.
C
I want to say, but you know what else you can't get in New York City? A NBA cup banner. Because after Mike Brown. After Mike Brown repeatedly said there was going to be a banner, he told the team there was going to be a banner. He said after the game there might be a banner.
A
It just won't be in the rafters.
C
If you get a chance to raise a banner to the, to the storied roof of Madison Square Garden, you have to do it. What happens? James Dolan says, nah, James, we're not doing that.
D
Oh, we're not doing that. You think I'm going to be a good partner to the NBA? Screw that. No, not doing it. And I make fun of the raising a ribbon and all that thing, but I'm sorry, dude. It ain't like the rafters are full up there. I mean, it's not like the Knicks are hanging.
A
They are full in LA and they still put it up there.
D
Exactly.
C
It's just a very silly. It's just a. It's just a very petty and silly thing to do. Not that that is surprising given who we're talking about. But, like, look, people can mock the NBA Cup. You know, I saw Brian was on with Mad Dog Russo today who had an unbelievable rant about, you know, Dean Memminger and guys from the 70s and like.
A
But if you watch, he said Dave the Busher didn't. Didn't worry about the NBA.
C
He went through every guy on the 70s Knicks. It was, it was very entertaining. However, I was at the game. The players are really excited that they won.
A
They were in the game.
C
It was a fun thing. Mike Brown, like, talked to the team about it. They openly were celebrating the fact that they won something, were bringing it back to New York. And now, because James Dolan has this feud with Adam Silver and the league office, that he's not going to have him do it. Like.
A
And I just think Jeannie Buss. Jeannie Buss, you know, she. The Lakers won the first NBA cup. And if the Lakers had said, look, we've got 17 banners up there, we got all these statues outside, we have all this history. The standard for putting, you know, the stars on the court are for, you know, they go around the center logo. That's our standard. That's how we do it. Like, I would have had a hard time Going against that. That premise. Okay. But she said, as a partner in the league. And I know that this is going to be this case, and. And I know that this is going to potentially be a big thing, and I want to be on the right side of history. So she set the standard and she put the banner up. And then the Bucks, you know, right next to their championship banner. In fact, you know, the Lakers banner kind of. You know, it sort of sticks out because it's sort of a different. Which is fine.
D
Yeah.
A
The Bucs put, like, a proper banner right next to their championship.
D
Their recent championship banner. Might I. Yeah. Not a championship banner. That was from before I was born.
C
And I'm old and you're old.
A
There's a lot of gray in that beard. Yes. When the straw poll started, that beard was not gray.
C
It's a not surprising, but disappointing reaction, I would say, from Nick's leadership. We'll just put it that way.
A
Here's the thing. For Jalen Brunson, like, he is having a great season. The bar that he would have to clear to win the award is extraordinary. I think, as Mr. Bontemps is about to.
C
Yeah, for sure. I mean, his ceiling is third or fourth, I would say, in fourth, 1. Second place vote 17. Third place votes 53. Fourth place votes, 20. Fifth place votes, 91 total ballots, 271 total points. Who is it? Kate Cunningham.
A
That's a very strong spot for Kate Cunningham. That's a really good number of ballots.
C
It's a very strong spot. It's a very strong spot for Metroplex native Cade Cunningham. He is fourth on the list. I think this is a deserved tip of the cap to the way the Pistons have played this season. They're 21 and 5, off to a fantastic start. Cade is having a really good season. I will be a little surprised if Cade continues to be in the top five by the end of the season. He's having a really nice year, but, like, for example, I could see him maybe being fifth or sixth if Detroit falls down the standings a little bit. But if Detroit stays first in the east, he'll probably stay right in this kind of range. And the Pistons have been one of the. I mean, for. They've kind of been overshadowed the last week or so because of the spurs and not being in the cup playoffs and stuff. But the fact that Detroit is 21 and 5 with, you know, with the. They don't. They don't have an overwhelming roster full of talent. They've got young guys that are really exciting, but they haven't, you know, didn't make some big trade. They haven't done any big signings. Like, it's an awesome story. It's a great job of JB Bickerstaff, as we've talked about, and I think it's cool to see Cade get this kind of attention early on and it's a good recognition of what Detroit is doing.
A
Well, he's been terrific in clutch situations so far, ideally. And some of the folks, I think that you're going to be saying next because we're about to get into the cream of the crop here. They don't even have to play in clutch situations because they're dominating so much. So.
D
Yep.
A
So in one way, like it helps you. On the other way, you know, having to do all that is a more of an indication of of your team.
D
Sure. But he is likely the lone All Star on a team that has the second best record in the league. So this is absolutely, this is exactly where I had him. Was fourth on the ballot.
C
Yep. And he was the one guy there was. So we had 99 second place votes among the top three guys. Cade was the one guy who got a second place vote outside of that and was the only other guy who had any, you know, meaningful more than five votes for third place. So he clearly established himself as fourth on the ballot. More Hoop Collective Podcast after this There's.
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C
So all right, third place, one first place.
A
The Americans can sit down.
C
That is correct. We are done with the American portion of the ballot. One first place vote, one second place vote. Oh, 74 third place votes, 13 fourth place votes and six fifth place votes. 95 total votes and 432 total points. I think this one is pretty easy to guess.
D
Luka Doncic.
C
That is correct. Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic who has had a great year.
D
Was that. If you could, if you could throw a rock right now, would you hit the person who cast that first place vote? Was that a LA based vote?
C
No, it was not an LA based person.
D
Was it a European based vote?
C
Nope.
D
Because I got to tell you, this is a two horse race right now. Not saying that Luka is so far behind that he can't get in it, but this is a two horse race.
C
I mean Luka is averaging 35, 9 and 9.
A
He's leading league and scoring and the.
C
Lakers are a lot better than I thought they were going to be.
A
I mean 35, 9 and 9. I mean that's, I don't, I don't.
C
Think I agree with you, McMahon. Like, I mean the top two guys who we're about to get to got a preponderance of the votes. I don't think it's a crime that Luka got a first place vote.
D
Nah, listen, I just think the top two guys having such ridiculous seasons that the standard to get a first or second place vote is that high. But Luke is having the kind of season that when you saw the shape he got in over the summer, you expected him to have. I mean, you know, 35, 99 is not shocking. He had basically 3, 34, 10 and 9 in his last year in Dallas before some folks around here. It'd be a good idea to trade him, you know, so. But I just, I just think that there is a tier here and he is the top of the second tier. I think the voting Lakers, if the Lakers.
A
I guess. Yeah, I guess that's true.
C
I mean, that's obviously true. The voting reflects that.
D
What's that?
C
I said that's obviously true. The voting reflects that. I mean there were 99 first place votes and 98 second place votes among the top two people, I would say there's a. There's a pretty clear cliff.
A
Right.
C
There's first and second, there's third, fourth and fifth, and then there's everybody else.
D
Yeah.
A
Before you do this, Jackson, can you give us the updated DraftKings numbers? Do you have them anywhere near there for what the odds are?
D
Are you working with Nate Jackson?
A
Jackson's also in la.
C
I know it's also in la.
D
Hotel room he was in, it had like the good fancy, like textured wallpaper. Just saying.
A
You have any textured wallpaper in your renovation that you're doing?
D
Ah, God, I hope not because I was informed with some of the wallpaper prices.
A
All right, well, Jackson gets that. I just want to. I just want to see where the odds are based on where the voting is.
D
Yeah.
C
The only thing I'll say about Luca is I, while I do well, there obviously is a T. I do think Luca has the opportunity to move up higher if he continues to play like this. Both because there's an obvious. There's an obvious additional attention that comes with being on the Lakers and if the Lakers end up in the top four, say right in the west, where I don't think they're going to, it's probably going to be because this guy continues to put up astronomical numbers and they exceed expectations. And if the Lakers exceed expectations, that's a good way to get plenty of attention and support in. In this poll at a later date.
A
Yeah, the DraftKings.
D
The other thing he's got going against him now is games played. And not that he's not going to make the minimum, but for example, if Shea ends up playing 78, 79 games, which is about where, you know, he's missed a game. If Joker ends up playing 78, 79 games and Luca comes in at, you know, 68, you know, 10, 11, 12 games, there's value in games played as well. It is. Absolutely.
A
Don't bring me back to that.
D
Well, it's the truth.
A
Okay, so the DraftKings numbers. Luca is third at plus 320.
C
Yep.
A
And it's basically a dead heat. SGA is favored right now at plus 160. Jokic at plus 170.
D
Yeah. So sounds about right.
A
Bon temps. What do the voters think?
C
Well, I will also say that each of the last five years, the person who has finished in first place in the first poll has not gone on to win. Win the award. So we will see that the last time it happened Was the first year I did it at ESPN six years ago and Giannis led in both and won at some point, like the defending champions streak, I expect that that streak to be broken, but it has yet to be so far. We'll see if this year is different. So in second place with 42 first place votes, 57 second place votes and a fourth place vote, one of two players have 100 total points. Our total votes on every single ballot with 822 total points. Want to guess who it is, Joker?
A
I say Shay. I say Shay.
C
Just to pick the other one, it is Nikola Jokic.
A
How could somebody give him a fourth place vote?
C
And so in. So hold on. So in first place with 57 first place votes, 41 second place votes, a third place vote and a fourth place vote, 100 total ballots and 865.
A
Oh man, that's tight buddy.
C
It's J. Gildas Alexander.
D
And again, much like last year, at the end of the year I'm not going to sit here and tell you why one or the other shouldn't. I agree the guy. But both these like. Let me just put in perspective Joker who I had second on on the ballot, let me put in perspective his season. Right now he is averaging a career high 29.8 points per game. He's averaging a career high in League leading 10.8 assists. He's leading the league with 12.4 rebounds, which is one of his career highs. It's tied for his third best. And the guy's shooting 61.3% from the floor, the second best of his career. So a three time.
A
So you're saying that averaging a 30 point triple double shooting 61% from the field is second place.
D
Well, and then if you want to talk about what Shea's doing, and I went with Shay simply because look, if the Thunder are going to break the record for wins in a season with him having these kind of numbers, I'm going with the guy who's on the record breaking team. Right. But like Shay's numbers are just as insane. And again, she's having a better season this year than he did last year when he won the MVP. The scoring is right about even, 32.4 this season. The assists are even. You know, the minutes are down though because they're just smoking everything.
A
Yeah, you know we made a big deal and we were kind of tracking a couple years ago when Joel Embiid was averaging a point a minute. You remember that Bon Temps and like he ended up getting hurt, but he was like the first guy since Chamberlain and I don't expect this to keep up because for various reasons, but I'm sorry to cut you off, McMahon. Shea is averaging 32.4 points in 33 minutes and he's essentially doing it.
D
Dude. Shay is shooting 56% from the floor as a guard, the best in his career by far. He's shooting by far the best in his career. 43.7. That's 3.7.
A
So dude, we're just an amazing number.
D
His numbers are 56, 44, 88 and he's averaging 32 and change with that kind of efficiency and you know, a significant playmaker, major contributor to a defense that is best in the league by a country mile.
C
Yeah, yeah, go ahead.
D
If, and if they're going to win 72, 73, 75 games, I'm sorry, I'm going to go, I'm going to vote with the guy whose team's having a historic.
A
I don't, I don't think there's, you know, you, you can't create a case against these guys.
C
No, they're both awesome. And I actually think though, and again, all this is obviously some educated guesswork, but I think this is a pretty good result for Nikola Jokic because in terms of whether he's going to win the award because I think the Thunder, as I've said, have a very good chance to set the wins record and win over 70 games. I think if the Thunder win over 70 games, I see really no way that shake elders Alexander doesn't win MVP because as you said, big man, the tie is going to go to the guy with the all time great team. You would think when the numbers are this close. Yeah, if, though the Thunder drop off at all and win 68 games, which is still awesome, but it's not 70 games. I would say this opening ballot shows that with the race this close, the tiebreaker probably is going to be how good are the Thunder. And so if the Thunder are over 70, they're one of the three teams to ever do that. I'd guess shay went to second straight MVP. If they win 68 again, it would not surprise me at all if Jokic wins mvp, at least as of today. Because if it's that close now and the one guy's team is 24 and two, then there's a lot of Runway for the second place guy to catch up in a race when obviously we're splitting hairs.
D
Well, we came into the season saying that the bar for shade or repeat is MVP was going to be extraordinarily high. And The Thunder winning 70 plus game clears that bar with him putting up these sort of numbers with that kind of efficiency. I think what the straw poll illustrates is something that we thought was the case going into it. The bar for Luca or Cade or anybody else to really get into it and make it a three horse race is ridiculously high. And like for Luke, it's going to require continue to put up the numbers he's putting up, which he'll do that. I think his efficiency will probably even improve. He's not shot the three grades and the Lakers are probably going to have to end up being a top three seed in the west for him to have a realistic shot of being in.
C
The mix on this deal and that and that's it. I think barring injury, I don't think there's anybody else who has any sort of realistic shot to get in the mix. Like, sure, I guess if The Knicks win 25 games in a row or the Pistons win another 25 games in a row or something crazy happens. Yeah, sure, you could make an argument for somebody else maybe, or like, I guess the only other person I'd maybe say is if Giannis or Victor stay totally healthy and rip off huge stats and their teams go crazy, maybe they can get in the mix a little bit. But to me, it's Luca. If he continues playing like this and either of these guys slip a little bit. Yeah, I mean, because they're just doing historic things and they're way ahead of the pack.
A
The Lakers could finish second in the west if the right set of circumstances happen.
D
And if Luca, if they could look.
C
At their record right now, if the Lakers finish second in the west with Luca playing like this, that's the sort of scenario.
A
Well, they're not going to do it the way they're playing right now, because by the way, the last 10 games, the Lakers have the 27th defense and JJ Redick.
C
But that's my point. Like the Lakers are a flaw. Like we've talked about. The Lakers are a good but flawed team. And if they, if they could, if they finish ahead of everybody but okc, it's got to be because this guy's going insane. And that'll give him a chance for Giannis.
D
Like, look, if he gets healthy and then the Heat end up a top four seed in the east. And I can totally see Giannis doing that.
A
You Talking about efficiency, McMahon? Allow me a comment on that.
C
Just went right by him. That was a good. That was a good one, man.
A
Okay, sorry, I. It's because I'm heading towards my sports center hit right now and I'm distracted. What did he say? We'll just let the audience make fun of me. All right, let me speak about efficiency for a moment. So at LeBron's peak, because LeBron got super interested in efficiency in Miami, it became like his obsession. At LeBron's peak, he won the PER Player Efficiency Rating title six consecutive years. Okay. And in that stretch, his Highest efficiency was 31.7 Player efficiency rating. I don't want to get too much into advanced stats, but sure, anything over 30 is all time elite. LeBron. LeBron was over 31 three times in his career. Never was over 32, but that was his height. Wilt Chamberlain is, you know, one. You know, it's a little bit harder to be the efficiency back in them. He didn't have the three point shot, but Will Chamberlain led the league in efficiency nine times in his career. Okay. He was, you know, pretty great. Shake yourself, Alexander who. We're just talking about how tremendously efficient he is being. Like his shooting percentage is way up. Everything is, you know, great. He's averaging 33. His PER right now is 32.9. So already, Shay, way higher than LeBron's best year. And I know it's so he's been, please play 25 games. He hasn't played 75. But significantly above LeBron's best year in efficiency at 32.9. Okay. Nikola Jokic, who is currently trying to lead the per for the sixth straight year. I just said LeBron never was better than 31. And change. Shea is having one of the greatest years on record at 32.9. Jokic right now is 35.9.
D
Again, if you're the modern day Will.
C
I mean, that's really where it's at at this point. He's just, he's just breaking all the stats.
A
Jokic is now the all time leading per guy in the history of the NBA.
C
Yeah, I mean, he's, he's. It's like Will, like you go back to the 60s, you look at the stats that will put up and the numbers that will put up and it's, it's crazy to look at the Wilt numbers and it's why it's like wilt and all the time, right? Like we've talked about this for years, it's going to be like that with Jokic. It's going to be like Jokic and for all these different stats because there's, it's just insane to be putting up point guard numbers with crazy efficiency while also getting 12, 13, 14, 15 rebounds a game. Like, it's just, it's video game stuff.
D
To lead the league and assist and rebounds while shooting better than 60% from the floor is nuts. And you know Michael Malone, when they came through OKC last year and Joker had the crazy game and Malone stumping for him to be mvp, says if you just put the numbers on, you know, blindly on sheet of paper, you're picking him every time. I said, okay, what if you put the records on there too? Because that's part of the conversation. And you know, the thing about like efficiency merchants or all that kind of stuff is a lot of times when guys are hunting efficiency, they're doing it by only taking the quote unquote, you know, great shot, great analytic shots. They're dunks, layups in threes. Both Joker and Shea, that's not what they are. They're just that skilled. And Shea is actually relying more on mid range from a percentage standpoint than he ever has. And let me just listen to these numbers. 10 to 16ft, look in his basketball reference page right now this year, 10 to 16ft, he's shooting 58.9% for the floor. It's crazy on those shots, the long 2, 16 plus, he's shooting 51.1% on those. And those are crazy. All like off dribble, create space or some of them are, you know, off of post. And I do just want to say this free throw merchant thing, I'm tired of hearing it. I looked it up last year. There's been, there's been 47 seasons going in this year where a guard averaged 30 plus points per game. His free throw attempts per game last year ranked 31st out of those 47 seasons. Now they're up a little bit this year. But you know who's are historically high? It's Luca. Great scores, especially.
A
Luca leads the league in free throws. It's not if you being a free throw merchant like I, it's, I don't understand why it's necessarily an insult. But if you, if you're good enough to get fouls and draw the line, it means you're doing well.
D
Well and especially these guys who get fouled on mid range attempts because it's, it's pump fakes, it's, it's a boy, it's such a good shot for them. We've got to challenge it. It's, it's the footwork. So I just. The whole free throw merchant thing is, is honestly a Stupid Internet meme.
C
Well, and the other, the other one other thing to just mention really quick on Shay is he is part of a historically great defense and is a actual part of it. Which is another thing that when you look at tiebreakers like, you know, Jokic has made himself like Steph into a guy who can, you know, not be a disaster on defense over the course of his career. But Shea is a, you know, is a solid part of a all time great defensive team which again, when you're talking about tiebreakers, that could end up being a tiebreaker too.
A
I'm just going to say that, you know, Shay, you know, you know, you know, Kobe is the untouchable guy in the social media era. You can't. He's in unimpeachable. Kobe took more free throws than Shea. He had I think three or four years where he averaged more than 10 free throws a game. Shea's done that once his career numbers. Kobe averaged more than Shade. Now Shay may catch him. It's kind of close. But Kobe average more. Does any. Did anybody ever accuse Kobe of being a free throw emergent? No Merchant.
D
And again, like Brunson's great at getting in the line. All the great scores are. That's part of being a great scorer. It's two things. The craftiness and also you're such a threat that guys are jumping at things that they want for most players.
A
Mr. Bontemps, another beautiful job on the Bon Temps poll.
D
BS what I'm here for.
A
That's right. And now you can. You can shut it down until the next one will be around. What around? Trade deadline? Around? All Star?
C
Yeah. Around then. Yep.
A
Yeah. All right. All right. Well, thank you so much to Devon and Jackson for putting it together. Thank you very much to McMahon and Bontemps. Thank you for watching and listening to Hoop Collector. We'll be back with you next week.
D
Adios, amigos.
F
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Episode: 1st MVP Straw Poll – Historic Race Coming?
Date: December 19, 2025
Host(s): Brian Windhorst, Tim Bontemps, Tim McMahon
Production: ESPN, Omaha Productions
In this special episode, Brian Windhorst is joined by ESPN insiders Tim Bontemps and Tim McMahon to unveil and analyze the first MVP Straw Poll of the 2025 NBA season. The poll, conducted by Bontemps, is renowned for its predictive accuracy over the past six years. The episode dives into the methodology, the surprises and trends from the early results, and profiles the top contenders—ultimately framing a historic two-man race with potentially record-breaking implications.
(00:25–04:05)
(04:05–09:32)
Players receiving a single 5th place vote:
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves):
Jaylen Brown (Celtics):
(11:53–18:56)
Victor Wembanyama (Spurs):
Tyrese Maxey (Sixers):
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks):
(19:30–29:55)
(34:04–46:43)
(41:17–46:43)
(46:43–47:59)
The panel exchanges stats and analysis with their signature humor and candid banter. Competitive respect pervades their MVP debate, yet they don’t shy away from passionate asides (e.g., league banners, efficiency merchants, and NYC food takes). The tone is insightful, energetic, collegial, and sometimes irreverent.
Summary by Section for Quick Reference:
Next MVP Straw Poll & Final Thoughts:
Tune in around the trade deadline for the next update, where this historic race may yet turn anew.