
Hoop Collective: 2024-25 Large Sample-Size Theater & Clippers’ Center Ivica Zubac Interview
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Brian Windhorst
Foreign welcome to the HOOPP Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA which we're doing on Thursday afternoon, but in the morning with our guest today, the Machine, Kevin Pelton. What's up Machine?
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, it's afternoon where you are, morning still where I am.
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, he's in Seattle. We will be joined later on the podcast by our latest friend of the pod who's a Clipper, which we've had a number of Clippers on this year. Pelton But Vitze Zubac will be joining us a little bit later and we'll be talking to him. But first, more importantly, one of the key dates on the Hoop Collective calendar. Every year it's time for large sample size theater, which means the playoffs are almost here. Kevin how many years have we done large sample size theater? It's got to be dating to pre pandemic, don't you think?
Kevin Pelton
For sure, yeah. I mean I think we probably started it when it was the the origin of the Hoop Collective which was like 2016, 17. So it's been a minute.
Brian Windhorst
Anyway, this is where we take a look at some trends. We early in the season, usually in November or December, October I think this year we did it in early December. We look at small sample size theater, some things that are happening in the league and Pelton can speculate on whether they'll continue or not. And so now that we've seen a full season of some things we have large sample sizes. So that's where we're going to start. And Pelton, I feel like for the last several years we've had a similar topic in both small and large sample size theater and that's the three point shooting which we are in the peak, maybe you don't say peak, but we are in the throws of the three point era in the NBA. Now that you've seen the 24, 25 season basically play out and you've seen the three point shooting, we've got people, it's been a vogue thing to call for changes to the court. Our old colleague Kurt Goldsberry, who played on the who Collective many times, is now with the ringer, he debuted a paper or a thought piece, whatever you want to call it this week, Pelton, where he called for the elimination of the corner three pointer. For example, um, I had dinner with Goldsberry in, in Paris in January, and he was talking at the time about this. So he watched the data for the following two months and it did not change his mind. So he rolled that out. But where is your analytic check? The opposite of a vibe check? The analytic check on where the three point shot is in the NBA at the end of this season.
Kevin Pelton
So when we talked about this back in December, you know, even I think I wrote about it, maybe still in October, but early November, it was clear that three point rate, something that stabilizes pretty quickly league wide, and that we could expect that this was not a fluke, that we were going to see these increasing number of threes led by the Boston Celtics. And you know, conveniently last week I wrote a piece on ESPN.com coming out of the Sloan Conference because there was a really fascinating panel there where Daryl Morey, the co founder of the conference, the longtime executive in charge of now the Sixers, formerly the Houston Rockets, went on stage and in a panel, you know, titled have Nerds Ruined Basketball? Said the three pointer is too valuable, that the NBA has to do something, that there's no way that you can argue that the three should be 50% more valuable than the two at this point. And that it, quote, breaks the game, which is, I joked in the piece, is sort of like Frankenstein saying, look, somebody's got to do something about this monster. It is out of control. And one of the things that's unclear is like, to what degree Daryl may have been, you know, kind of playing devil's advocate on stage because it definitely made for a more entertaining panel, especially because the foil for him upstate on stage, who was arguing that, no, actually fans like threes. Things are fine. People kind of latched on to the poor national TV ratings at the earliest part of the season and used three pointers as an explanation, even though there's no actual evidence linking those two. Was Evan Wash, the league's executive vice president of strategy and analytics, who is basically making the case that we don't need to do anything right now. Maybe we're going to monitor it, maybe at some point we will. But right now, fans are generally happy with the number of threes in the state of the game. So that was kind of a fascinating thing in the context of all of this. The. The one thing that has maybe changed a little bit over the larger sample is the Celtics. Three point attempts have come back to the pack a tiny bit. They're still going to be number one historically in three point attempts in percentage of shots.
Brian Windhorst
Smashed some records the other night in Memphis. I can't. 62, I think they took.
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, I mean they've had, they had 61 an opening night. I think they have another game that's over 60 this season potentially. So they're surpassing Daryl Morey's rockets from the James Harden era, those 17, 18, 19 teams who previously the all time leaders in threes. Because the one interesting thing about this conversation and why it's sort of happening now, and I'd be curious, you know, what your perspective is on this talking to people within the league is there was a stretch where, starting with the 2020, coming out of the 2020-21 season that was played, you know, largely without fans during the midst of the pandemic. Since then, threes had kind of flattened out over the last four seasons and now we've got this jump again this year. And I think the Celtics success last year was a big part of it because there was period of time where it looked like, hey, maybe we have gotten to the point where we're shooting enough threes and there's no longer an advantage to be gained for the offense by shooting more threes. And you know, in the regular season last year, the team that shot more threes in a game had a worse record than the team that shot fewer threes. But then in the playoffs that flipped the top two teams in terms of regular season three point volume. The Celtics and the Mavericks made the finals. Celtics won rather easily in large part because of their shooting. And it does seem like teams sort of looked at that and said we need to do what Boston is doing.
Brian Windhorst
The tipping point for me, and I don't know if the data backs this up, but the tipping point for me was when teams went from just collecting three point shooters and putting the three point shooters on the court to encouraging guys who are not three point shooters to shoot three. So for example, you know, in my, you know, and I'll just track it with, with LeBron because as LeBron has gone through his career, we've seen more and more shooting and when LeBron was young in his career, it was like, boy, let's put, let's basically have him run point guard and have the two other wings that are on the court with him or the two other guards on the court rhythm because he's a forward technically. Let's make sure they can shoot threes. You know, there was like a, you know, a big move when the Cavs decided we can't have Eric Snow on the court with him. We need to have Mo Williams on the court with him. And when they made that change out, it was part of when they won 66 games the first year. So it was like, let's see if we can get two really good three point shooters with LeBron. And then it was like, let's see if we can get a third really good three point shooter. Which in the case of the Cavs, they went and traded for Antoine Jameson. And when he went to Miami, it was, you know, they, they got Shane Battier and had him be their power forward, really a small forward. But they said, you be a power forward and shoot threes. And then, and then it was like, wait a minute, what if we can have all four guys around LeBron shoot threes? Which is when they got Chris Bosh into shooting the three. And even that Pelton, he was doing it a little bit. He was shooting two or three a game. He was not out there shooting seven, eight, nine a game. And obviously the rest of league was doing this too. The Heat weren't doing this in a vacuum. But I remember famously for me, Eric Spoelstra during the NBA lockout, because he didn't have a team to coach, he went and spent a bunch of time with the Chip Kelly Oregon Ducks football team, which was kind of weird. Why would a basketball coach. And he was also, he's an Oregon fan. So I was like, what are you doing? But he was really was going there and watching how the Ducks use the spread offense and the idea of being, creating the space. And, you know, LeBron and the Heat kept making finals and teams were mimicking them. So what ended up happening was it was, let's, let's see if we can get stretch fours. Because that was a thing in the, in the teens, right? Like, like, let's get forwards who, let's get power forwards who can shoot threes. And the tipping point has come in the twenties, in my view. Feel free to disagree with me where, like teams have sent their centers off into the summer and said, Jonas Fallon shooting us, when we see you in October or September, we'd really like to see if you could shoot threes. And, you know, not that Jonas is the classic case, but, you know, seeing Valentina shoot threes was sort of, to me, like, what are we doing here? Because this is not a man built to shoot threes. Yusuf Nurkic Is Yusuf Nurkic another classic example. And so that was a tipping point where to me, I think the league might have just pushed it a little bit too much because let's not have guys who are not built to do this do this. And so I think that, I think that did moderate it out. But then because it's a copycat league when the Celtics have so much success and again, they did it because of their personnel. But Porzingis is an example of a guy who didn't shoot like this and next thing you know he's shooting from 28ft like nothing. And you see like, oh my God, look at how Porzingis inverts the entire defenses when he stretches. Because the thing about Porzingis that he does makes it so hard. I mean it's one thing to have a big man defend the corner, he can kind of get back a little bit. When Porzingis, his man is having to be at the three point line or farther even out, it just destroys his ability to get back defensively. And so I do think what we're possibly seeing is a copycat to the Celtics. And you know, you look at the teams are at the top like you look at the Cavs success, although their, their three point shooting has really leveled off percentage wise over the last month, there's no doubt that the Cavs came into this season with the strategy let's be more like the Celtics and it's delivered them and helped them deliver 60 something wins. So I'm waiting for what your data says, Pelton, because I'm not sure we're seeing a slowdown thanks to the Celtics sort of reigniting it.
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, and I do think at some point like one of the things that's going to happen is there's only so many long term twos you can turn into threes. And one of the things that gets lost in this discussion a lot of time is it's not a trade off of shots around the basket or threes shots around the basket. Shots, shots right around the basket are down a little bit just because of the fact that teams are so focused on them defensively. What's up instead are floaters and, and sort of those, those like short mid range attempts that are still within the paint but not really jump shots. So what the three has done I is actually the Oregon offense is a great comparison for this because when Chip Kelly was there, they weren't a team that, you know, this was not the run and shoot offense. This was not Mike Leach. A lot of what that space did For Oregon was created lanes for them to run and gash you on the ground that way. And I think that's a, a pretty good comparison for what we see we're seeing in the NBA. And one thing I do like is, you know everybody talks a lot about Brook Lopez and his development with into a three point shooter is someone who was, you know, almost exclusively a post player. Maybe you know, stretched it out to like 15 to 18ft as a range shooter early in his career. One of my favorite stories of this season has been Luke Cornett with the Celtics. With the Celtics, this team that values three point shooting more than anyone else who shot tons of threes when he came into the league was a stretch five before it was in vogue and now never shoots threes. But it's just like shooting 70%, 80% from the field because he's getting so many dunks out of the pick and roll is with his well spaced as the Boston offenses. So those to me are still exciting things that the spacing is creating these opportunities for plays ramp.
Brian Windhorst
Well, our guest later on the show, we haven't done the interview yet so we'll see. I don't know what he says. Zubot has taken I think two threes in the last four years. He has not leaned into that and he is thriving. So like Cornette, there's ways to go about this, you know that where you don't have to do that. And by the way, I mentioned, you know, the Cavs having so much success this year they're starting center Jared Allen doesn't shoot threes either and he shoots well over 60%. So there's still, there's still room for that. There's still room to play sort of quote unquote old school basketball and yeah, so, so what, where do you, where is it going to settle this season and how do you think it'll affect the playoffs?
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, I mean it's, it's settled around the same point that it has been, you know, around 37 and a half, I think attempts per game up from around 35 in previous seasons. So a considerable leap. The playoffs is going to be interesting. We do see a little bit of a trend this year, like I said, where as opposed to last year, the teams that are shooting more threes have been somewhat more successful. So that's probably going to lead to more threes in the playoffs. The one interesting counter example of course is the Denver Nuggets who shoot the fewest threes in the league, still have one of the very best offenses in the NBA built around Nicole Jokic. If, if Denver does get it together and sort of make a long playoff run as they did two years ago en route to the title, then maybe it feels a little bit different than if it's, you know, Celtics against. I don't know who I guess would be the premier three point shooting team in the Western Conference necessary but Celtics, Cavaliers, Warriors. I mean, obviously with Steph. Yeah.
Brian Windhorst
Although you know, Draymond and Jimmy Butler don't really shoot a lot of threes.
Kevin Pelton
Right.
Brian Windhorst
So. All right. So another thing that we've seen, large sample size. I believe the Oklahoma City Thunder have completed their schedule against the Eastern Conference and including their win in Boston. So the Celtics finally lost a game on what Wednesday night they lost at home to the Miami Heat. A surprise game by the way. But I got to say Pelton, throughout the course of my time covering the NBA there's been a lot of Heat teams that have won unexpected, expectedly in Boston. So maybe I, I shouldn't have been surprised. But before that, the only time the heated or the Celtics had lost in the previous five, six weeks was to the Thunder on their home court. The Thunder completed their Eastern Conference portion of their schedule at 29 and 1. This of course is a record. Their only loss was in Cleveland in that game in January, which was one of the highest level games played throughout the entire season. They did a terrific job guarding Donovan Mitchell in that game. Maybe they play again, you know, they could win. Maybe they play again. Donovan has a much better game and it's not as close, I don't know. But certainly it wasn't like they got boat race. They, they were not that far away from being 30 and oh, this is a team that has I believe 121 wins over the last two regular seasons. I think they had 57 last year and I think as we're recording this, they're sitting at 64121 wins over the last two regular seasons against just 27 losses. Pelton, what do we take from the Thunder's dominance against the east including 20 against the Celtics. The Celtics, who have basically beaten everybody for the last two years. What do we take from this large sample from the Thunder record?
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, predictably is the Thunder continue to head towards what is likely going to be the greatest point differential in NBA history. Something that came up on the pod earlier this.
Brian Windhorst
I think they're basically right now, I think they, I think They've surpassed the 71, 72 Lakers is outscoring having the largest differential like obviously They've got six games left. It could change. My guess is it's going to grow. But I think they've already achieved having outscored their opposition by more points than anybody in a season right now.
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, if they're just neutral over the last six games of the season, then they will in fact surpass the record. So a lot of that came against the East. They had a in differential of nearly + 18 in Eastern Conference games. It actually went down a little in their final game against the Detroit Pistons because they won by only 16 points in that one. On ESPN on Wednesday night, the next best point differential since 1976-77 against either conference, either your own or the opposite conference, was actually Boston last year at plus 13.9. So they're almost four points per game better than Boston did against the the west last year. That was the record. Now part of this is even though the Thunder are potentially trending towards 70 wins, they have not been quite as good against the west as they have against the East. Obviously, if you look at it since 1976-77, their conference win percentage among west teams playing other west teams is only 21st. So they're like still very good, obviously, but not historically great in that regard. So that's, I think a little bit of an interesting thing going into the playoffs where obviously they are not going to play east teams until potentially they get to the NBA Finals. I still would not say it's a major concern because if you go back to that differential aspect, they're plus 10.6 against west teams, which is six best since 76, 77 against among teams playing their own conference. And the west teams that have surpassed them in that span are the 2015-16 warriors that went 73 and 9 and the 201617 warriors who went 161 in the playoffs.
Brian Windhorst
Yeah. So the problem with looking at historic stats against the east right now is that maybe not at the beginning of the season, but from a mid season on you have six teams in the east that you can, you can look at and say they're tanking. And those six teams would be the Wizards, the Hornets, the 76ers, the Nets and the Raptors. And so beating up on those weak sisters who are tanking, you know, it's, it's hard to compare, you know, with how they play against the top teams. And you know, you look at farther down the Heat have been now they've won six in a row right now, but they've won six in a row to get to six games under 500. They were 12 games under.500 in ninth place at one point. And the Bulls, who are eight games under.500 and they have improved. They were at one point more than 10 games below.500. There was a it was a stretch in the season where the east had eight teams that were below 10 games below.500. Personifying this, Pelton was that when the Heat had their 10 game losing streak. I mentioned this on the pod before, but I want to say it again because I just think it's irrelevant to where the east is. The Heat lose 10 games in a row. They were already in the play in zone. It wasn't like they had been in second place and they hit a heart. You know, they were already like 8th or 9th. They lose 10 games in a row and they still had a 5 game lead. Stay in the play in. Okay, so now they've got this win and now they're in great shape to get the ninth seed and get home court for the first play in game.
Kevin Pelton
More Hoopp Collective podcast after this TaxAct.
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Brian Windhorst
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Kevin Pelton
Yeah, I mean I think it shows the legitimacy of what Cleveland has done during the regular season. All things considered you'd probably be rather be better against your own conference than the other conference since those are the teams you're going to play most of the playoffs. And there is some, it's not huge but there is some predictive power to the regular season head to head matchup when you go into a playoff series. So you know both Cleveland and Boston have been very good. Is Oklahoma City has against the west against their, their east rivals too. I wouldn't say it's any source of a concern in that regard. It is fascinating. So the one team that's kind of flipped on this, the team that has done better against the the west than the east is the Los Angeles lakers who are 32 and 13 against the west and 14 and 16 against the East. Despite all of those bad teams in the east you mentioned, the Lakers have lost more games against eastern teams out of 30 than against Western teams who they are eventually going to play 52 times.
Brian Windhorst
Here's why I believe that's true. Because the Lakers have the biggest differential between home and road performance. So the Lakers, they have a game tonight against the warriors at home. I don't know what's going to happen in that game, but they're 29 and 9 at home and 17 and 20 on the road. They have the biggest differential home and road in the league and so they get to play more west games at home is what I suspect is the is. Is. Is the reasoning there. But I don't know, maybe there's another reason we're going to talk about the Lakers. But before we do, on the last pod, Bontemps unveiled the Bontemps poll. Shai Gilbert Alexander got 77 of the hundred votes for MVP. And then that night Jokic went out and had a 61 point triple double, you know, double overtime loss. But this MVP race has been, you know, it's been, it's been somewhat friendly, I don't think. Certainly maybe in Denver when they see the Jokic is just trailing in the, in the polling, maybe they've got their fangs out a little bit. But I don't think people are like super hyped on it. Probably because Jokic has won three of them. And when he's won like, like last year when he won, he like legit shrugged his shoulders. He's like, all right, if you, if you must give it to me, I'll take it. And so I don't think there's like this feeling that the guy who's going to potentially come out on the in second place is quote unquote being wronged. But his statistics are absolutely jaw dropping, arguably his best season. And I've got Chris Herring and McMahon trying to argue through analytics that Jokic is actually a better defender than Shea. I'm looking forward to reading that piece because maybe my mind can be changed. But what do the large sample size say about who really should win the mvp?
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, it's interesting because for a long period of time, even when Joel Embiid did win the one MVP in the span that Nikola Jokic did not win, Jokic was always a pretty clear number one in most of the advanced metrics. And you know, what I'm primarily looking at is I'm casting my vote for MVP and doing my picks in the straw poll is the metrics that sort of combine the players box score stats with their impact on the team on versus off, adjusting for the opponents and luck in terms of opponent three point shooting. And again, Jokic has been a clear number one throughout his MVP reign in those metrics. And this year it's interesting, EPM, which is on dunkson3s.com and is considered a leader in this category, the LeBron metric that it's on bball index.com those generally this year favor Shea is having slightly more impact and it's interesting because it does seem a lot of that and I'm curious to see what Chris and Band are going to write about this as well. A lot of that advantage this year is at the defensive end of the court where even though Jokic is putting up the best per game stats of his career. The best three point percentage that we've seen. 46% or you know, 42% I think it is. Whatever. His offensive stats are as good as ever. His defensive stats are down a little bit. His defensive rebounding has not been quite the same. The Nuggets defensive rebounding has not been quite the same. And the his impact on the team shooting, his opponent shooting has been a little worse than usual. So all of those factors like generally the Nuggets have been a very good defense with Jokic on the court in this span as contenders this year they've. They've only been slightly better than average with him on the court and not quite the sort of same on versus off impact that we've seen. I will say very much there is a case for both of these guys. Statistically, Jokic is easily number one in win probability added, which is kind of an interesting thing to look at because it is sort of the sense of most valuable Denver playing more close games than Oklahoma City. Probably gives him a bit of an edge in that one.
Brian Windhorst
Right.
Kevin Pelton
And and Owen Phillips, who does a Great newsletter, the F5 that's been referenced on this pod before, he had an interview last week with the creators of some of these advanced all in one metrics where basically they said Jokic and sga, it's got to be one of those two guys, but it could be either one. So I'm kind of fascinated. It doesn't feel like the 61 point triple double had more of an impact on the the race and the odds at ESPN bet. No, I mean it was a three to one.
Brian Windhorst
It was a double overtime game. You know the double overtime game is going to elevate stats. And the thing is like it's not like it's not like it's a neck and neck thing. And he did it against Shea like in the win the race for you know, the number one seed. Like you know at this point I would be very surprised if there was anything individually that they could do to change the race. But you know, the way you finish is the way you finish and if, if Denver wins out and Jokic has like this incredible string of games and they get the number two seed, like that could be a factor. So I certainly would not call the race over. But I would call, you know, based on the polling which you know, Bontemps is pol Bon Thompson is very careful not to say declare like it's infallible because you can't predict things. And it is done with two weeks left in the season, we don't want to do it with two days left in the season because we want there to be an indication of. Of where the race is before it's actually over. So there could be some wiggle room, you know, but I would be surprised if there's anything. Doesn't mean impossible. I would be surprised if there's anything Jokic could do at this point. And it's, again, not a commentary on him. I think it's a commentary on that Shai has been so great and that Jokic, you know, won it last year, shrugged his shoulders and then his team was disappointed in the playoffs. Like that shouldn't matter. But I just can tell you from the voters over the years, it does matter. All right, so a couple of things that have happened more recently. I don't know if these fit into large sample size, but they're very important and very relevant. So coming into this game tonight, which is a very important game for the warriors and Lakers, and we're not going to know what's going to happen. And look, the Lakers are 30 against the warriors this year, and they're, like I said, they're 299 at Crypto, the.
Kevin Pelton
Warriors, but none of those three meetings with either Luka Doncic or Jimmy Butler.
Brian Windhorst
Of course. Of course. So going into tonight's game, The warriors are 120 with the starting lineup of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandon Pajemski. Small lineup. Obviously, they're a team that has really good options on their bench. Steve Kerr throughout the season has developed lineups. They are also 194 with Jimmy Butler and the Lions. Know, I have been arguing Pelton, and you feel free to disagree with me that the warriors are truly the number two seed. Now, the Rockets fans would have something to say about that because the Rockets have been great over the last month. But if you look at the Rockets schedule, it hasn't. It diminishes a little bit for me, but I certainly respect the Rockets. But the truth is, is that there's not that much of a difference between teams that are second and teams that are eighth. You know, the Clippers have been playing great, but they're in the play in right now. You know, Minnesota has been one of the best teams in the west and they're struggling to hold on to the six or seven seed. I actually think to me, in my mind, the warriors are sort of the secret number two seed to me because of that 19 and 4 record with Jimmy. Because of that record with this starting lineup where they've sort of figured out how to maximize their personnel, what does the data say about whether this is something that can transfer to a large sample size, which is what's going to matter in the postseason?
Kevin Pelton
I think it can. So let's, let's start by talking about since the All Star break, since I feel like that's a cleaner cutoff than the warriors did win a couple of games with Jimmy before the break. They also suffered one of their rare losses at Dallas. But since the break, they're 16:4. They have the second best net rating in the NBA at 9.7 points per hundred possessions, better than their opponents. Only Oklahoma City has been better in that span, despite the Celtics going 17 and 4, the Cavs going 17 5. And to your point, Houston going 16 6. And what would be exciting about this to me if I was a Warriors fan is there's not a lot of fluky stuff in the warriors being second in defensive rating over that span. You know, anytime that happens, I have like basically a flashing red siren that goes over, over my computer and says, well, let's look at what the opponent 3 point percentage is and, and what factor that's playing since that is the.
Brian Windhorst
Ultimate versus the expected three. Because, you know, you always educate me on the expected versus the actual.
Kevin Pelton
Yeah. And the expected usually is not very different from league average. But, but the warriors opponent three point percentage is thoroughly unremarkable in that span. They are. Let me pull this up here.
Brian Windhorst
Yeah.
Kevin Pelton
Opponents are hitting 38% of their threes. Like they're actually shooting better than you would expect against the Warriors. And their overall defense in terms of opponent shooting is measured by effective field goal percentage is basically league average about what it was before the break. So what's happened, what's changed is suddenly this warriors team is forcing turnovers more than anyone in the league big since the All Star break. And, and one of the, one of the other interesting things in there is that Oklahoma City, which was on threatening a historic pace enforcing turnovers in the first half of the season, now that they're playing Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein together to start games, they're actually pretty average now in terms of forcing turnovers. Their defensive success is much more about, you know, preventing opponents from scoring in the paint and their defensive rebounding with those two guys giving them a lot more size or at least relative to what it was. But you know, the warriors kind of started out the year forcing a lot of turnovers when they were healthy at the beginning of the year D Anthony Melton was a big part of that is one of their marquee off season additions. Then he got hurt. They stopped forcing turnovers. Opponents were hitting a ton of threes and their defense really slipped in December and January when they're struggling. But you put Jimmy Butler, who's maybe most underrated element is that he is terrific at creating havoc defensively. You put him and Draymond out there together and as well as Gary Payton ii, who's. And Brad Dim Pojimski, a couple of other guys who are, you know, defensive playmakers. And this Golden State team team is flying around out there.
Brian Windhorst
This is what the Thunder did when the Thunder didn't have great size. They won the possession game by getting turnovers. And so the warriors play without great size. I mean, they can go big. They've got, you know, Quentin Post and. And Kavon Looney down there, you know. Well, yeah, but you know, he is a big guy on defense.
Kevin Pelton
Defensible. Yes.
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, but quitting perimeter. Yeah, sorry. You know, they. It's not like they don't have big guys they can go to, but what's helped them is playing this sort of small, fast way that Oklahoma City really succeeded in. And you know, whenever I would look at the defensive rebounding numbers where the Thunder would really get pounded early in the season, they would say, well, that's all fine, but let's look at possessions, let's look at, let's look at steals, let's look at, you know, deflections. Let's look at how many times we get the ball and how many more shots we get even, no matter how many times we get rebounds. And. And it was true. And it's one of the reasons why they're on baby pace for 70 wins. So that's something that the fund that the warriors have leaned into. So yeah, I mean, do you take issue with me calling them sort of the secret to seed? Because I kind of like it and I've been rolling it out of my various performances. You can, you can either endorse it or tell me to stop it.
Kevin Pelton
I do understand why Houston fans would be be frustrated about that. I mean, I think one of the fascinating things is going to be how this seating shakes out over the last 10 days of the season, starting with this Lakers warriors game that, as you mentioned, will have already been played. If you're the warriors, is there to some degree you'd almost rather be the sixth seed than the four seed and just stay out of the Oklahoma City side of the bracket. Particularly Lakers are also in that side of the bracket, or the Nuggets, I should say, if they're also in that side of the bracket, maybe the Lakers too. And then you could go into the, the 2736 and be by far the most experienced team of that group. That's kind of a fascinating possibility to me.
Brian Windhorst
Well, that's the thing. Like, it's so tightly packed and the.
Kevin Pelton
Warriors could get up to three, which would be the best case scenario for that.
Brian Windhorst
Well, it's, it's very hard to project what's going to happen because it's so tightly packed and you know, like Denver really hurt themselves. Themselves. You know, they, they blow the game the other night to Minnesota, you know, there was a lot of twists and turns in that game, but obviously they kind of had great, you know, when Westbrook's got the ball going up the court, when they're up by a point, you know, their, their win probability is, you know, is pretty high. And then they have the, the back to back, you know, Wednesday night and they're playing against the spurs and they're just totally dead in that game from the start. They got down by 20, I think, in the first quarter. Losing those two games, like, really kind of puts them out of position and you know, and then you look at the Lakers. The Lakers got those really two good wins over Memphis and Houston and then they got this game tonight. I don't know what's going to happen, but if they win that game, the Lakers have all the tiebreakers. They've already established all the tiebreakers, all the teams around them.
Kevin Pelton
So if we just mentioned their record against the west, that's, that's the other element.
Brian Windhorst
Exactly.
Kevin Pelton
Tiebreakers.
Brian Windhorst
So the Lakers, you know, having the tiebreaker over all those teams and if they're able to, to run the gauntlet of Memphis, Memphis, Houston and, and, and Golden State, the teams are all around them and win all three in the course of like six days. It puts them in great shape. And you'd say, okay, the Lakers are going to be in great position for the 2 or the 3 or the 2 at the 3 at least avoiding. But then they got to go play Oklahoma City twice next week. So it's just very hard to project it. Yeah, I think it obviously you would much rather be the four than the, you much rather be the six than the four. Maybe not much rather, but if you had a choice, you would take the six over the four. Because especially a team like Golden State, I don't think Home court court is as important to that veteran team. Certainly you're not going to tell Jimmy Butler he can't win a road playoff game, but the guy who made the.
Kevin Pelton
NBA Finals is from the play in tournament, is the eight seed.
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, right. But obviously you'd like to have the three too. So if you're sitting there in four, you're not going to just roll out the ball and say take the game. So it's hard to project. But one more thing I want to talk about and in this sort of this vein, is the Lakers defense. Because throughout the course before the Luca trade, any discussion with the Lakers, I was kind of boring. I'd be like, well, I can't take them seriously. They're 23rd in def. Or 26 in defense. Like, okay, you know, maybe, you know, Austrians will have a big shooting night or D'Angelo Russell will have one of the nights where he goes six of nine from three and they can beat anybody. And yeah, they're good at home. But I can't look at them seriously, even if LeBron's playing great, I can't look at them seriously and say they're going to win 12 playoff games to get to the finals. They trade for Luka and my response is, oh my God, what an amazing trade. This sets them up beautifully for the medium term future. I think their team is unbalanced. And I even was saying like in the wake of Luka trade, I'm not putting any pressure on this Laker team at all this year if they are able to win a playoff round. They, you know, you believe in Luca and LeBron, but how can you possibly look at the way this team is structured with. With no interior defense? What they were not even a good defensive team anyway. And they just added Luca and they're going to play him next to Austin Reeves. And I mean, how do I look at that team and say they're going to be able to defend? But JJ Redick leans into playing small, playing Dorian, Finney Smith, big minutes, basically playing center or LeBron playing center or Luka playing center, depending on how you do it. And he just encourages the team to play maximum effort. And Pelton, they start winning. They start winning with getting teams, you know, you know, leaving three point shooters that they don't fear open and living and dying with that. And all of a sudden they're like a top six defense for like four, five, six weeks and they start raffling off victories. And I'm like, well, this is a significant sample size. Like, I can't ignore a team playing 20 games of top 10 defense, defense. And then LeBron gets hurt and they go the other direction and they play 10 games of bottom 10 defense. So now they're back whole and they're doing the small thing. You know, they did this against the Rockets the other night and it was successful. I don't know what happened in this warriors game tonight. I'm still not putting a lot of pressure on the Lakers. I still am not going to say that it's like championship or bust, like so many people are saying, or at least gets the finals or bust or, you know, I have the audacity to believe that a team that might win 70 games is legitimate favorite which can seem like, like counter programming at some point. I don't even think it's, to be honest with you, it's an easy position for me to take and I'll go on first take with Stephen A. And Shannon Sharp all day long because it's, it's, it's not even. I don't have to stick my neck out to, to defend the Thunder, but whatever. What am I to make of this Laker defense and where do you think it's headed?
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, so they were number one in defensive rating in the NBA in the month of February. They Then were number 17 in March. I mean, the fascinating thing is you mentioned LeBron's injury and, and this has been one of the large sample, small sample confounding things of the NBA this season that our new colleague Zach Cram wrote about, I think last month or maybe back in February, which is that the Lakers have been better this season with LeBron on the bench, or at least it had at that point. I'm not totally sure. They still have been much better defensively with him on the bench, even. Even though he was out during that stretch where they were really struggling defensively. Because it wasn't just him out, it was also Jackson Hayes and Rui Hachimura. So any semblance of size that they had or quality size that they had.
Brian Windhorst
Right. They were playing two way guys at center. Routinely playing two way guys at center.
Kevin Pelton
A lot of tree Jemis in the third. So. Yeah. And yet still the Lakers since the All Star break have been better defensively with LeBron on the bench and on the court.
Brian Windhorst
Having said that, when you see LeBron play defensively on the nights when he's engaged, there's no doubt he's making a positive influence. And JJ Redick has noticed that. So while I believe those numbers, I also kind of say that doesn't, doesn't tell the whole story. But, but, but I believe them.
Kevin Pelton
Yeah. It's a case where even the large sample size of a full season of on off data is still a relatively small sample size size because of the fact that, you know, we talk a lot about opponent 3 point shooting, how noisy it can be at the team level. But think about it, when you're slicing it into just LeBron's minutes versus LeBron's minutes off, you're kind of, you're not just doubling that, that variance, you're multiplying the variance by each other is what you're doing. So you know, it therefore sets up a lot of situations. One of the, one of the ones that was most notable is Kawhi Leonard. I think the year after he won defensive player of the year, the spurs were better defensively with him on the bench. And that was one of those things you dug into and it was really all a product of opponent three point shooting and obviously did not continue going forward. So I think that's what's happening with LeBron. I do think the Lakers were going to be hard pressed to keep up what they were doing. If you look at that February stretch, yeah, opponents, they were number one in the league by a wide margin in terms of holding opponents based on their expected shot making, based on the second spectrum tracking which captures where the shot is, how close defenders are, what type of shot, all of those things, and then also the ability of the shooter. In one of the models that they have quantified shot probability. The funny thing is in March they've still been very good in that regard. They are, you know, still substantially below it. But their shot profile in terms of the shots they're giving up, despite this argument that they're leaving the right shooters open, hasn't really borne out statistically. The expected shot quality was in the bottom 10 in February. It's gotten a little bit even worse than that in March. So you know, they're giving up shots. And right now I think, you know, I do think that their size, their, their length at multiple positions, the fact that even though they don't have, you know, that that classic seven foot ring rim protector or Anthony Davis playing power forward or anything like that, what they do have is a lot of size across multiple positions because Jared Van Der Bill for sure, and when they start the game, you know, Austin Reeves is their smallest guy on the court, there's no one little out there for the, for the Lakers. And by the way, wait, are we sure D'Angelo Russell played for the Lakers this season. That can't be possible, right? That was like five.
Brian Windhorst
I seem to recall it. I seem to recall it. Yeah. Point well taken. I will say this. While I can't possibly guess what the Lakers defense will be in the playoffs for the Lakers to have a run, I think they need obviously health. They need LeBron to, you know, he just hasn't quite been the same player since the groin injury. They need that. They need LeBron to be somewhat healthy and they really, I think, need to be in the two or the three. Number one, while I certainly would again would never look luka Doncic or LeBron James in the face and say, you can't win a road playoff game. There's so much a better team when they have home court. And that first round series would be such an advantage to them because you know they're going to be playing a quality team. You know, they could end up having to play Minnesota, they could end up having to play Golden State, and they need home court in that series. Series. The second thing is if you're the 2 or 3, it means you're opposite the, the Thunder. So your chances of making a long run may be tied to not having to face them. And, and so while I, again, I wouldn't like if the Lakers draw the five seed, it's not like, and you know, let's say they draw the five seed and they're playing Denver or they're playing Memphis, like, I'm going to say no chance. Like, there's no way LeBron and Luka could win in Denver or win in Memphis. Of course they can. But I know that this is a team that over the large sample size has proven they're really tough on their home court and, and very manageably beaten on the road. So that's my large sample size analysis, which could be worthless, but. All right, Pelton, thank you for your intelligence and your perspective as always. We really appreciate it. We'll be right back here on the.
Kevin Pelton
Hoop Collective, more Hoop Collective podcast after this.
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Brian Windhorst
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Brian Windhorst
Okay. Now we are very happy to be joined by Clippers Center. Star Center. I'm going to call you Star Center. Avica Zubaca. I've only.
Unnamed Speaker
What?
Brian Windhorst
I've only covered the NBA for 20 years and covered you for nine. And I did. I screwed up, Iviza.
Unnamed Speaker
It's all good. I hear it every day.
Brian Windhorst
That's why everybody calls you Zoo. I know you do. Everybody calls you Zoo. So I gotta, I want to ask you because I've spent a lot of time covering international basketball, which I've done a lot I could appreciate. I've heard a lot of Europeans, I've known a lot of European players who've had to leave their homes when they were really young. And that was your story. You were, I assume, a big talented kid, but you left your home when you were 14 years old and moved to Zagreb, the capital, Croatia.
Unnamed Speaker
Yeah.
Brian Windhorst
And I know this is like an origin story and we're talking about the stuff that's going on with the Clippers right now and everything, but I'm always interested. What was that like for you, leaving your house at 4? Did you even know anybody where you were going?
Unnamed Speaker
No, I got a call. I was actually at 13 when I got a call. First. First I got a call from a team in Cebu, in Zagreb called Cebona. And I guess they seen something in me which no one else saw at the time. And they invited me for the first, for the few tournaments with them, just to go out there to see me. They let me finish my eighth grade back home and they were like, we want you to come over to Zagreb, stay at our like a dorm that we have and play for it. And it was a, it was a big decision at the time, you know, I was 13 going on turning 14. I had to make a decision to move away to a different country, away from my family. So when I got there, I didn't know anyone. I was struggling in the beginning. I didn't play a lot, I didn't, A lot of my teammates were way better than me and I, I, I started doubting myself. I didn't see, I, I didn't know what they saw in me. But I guess with, with years, you know, it started, I started being better when, than those guys. I started show draft boards and I guess they were right.
Brian Windhorst
Well, you weren't obviously you were tall for your age, but you weren't like super tall then, right? You weren't like six, eight as a 13 year old or anything. You were like what, like six two?
Unnamed Speaker
No, I wouldn't say six two. I would say maybe a six, four.
Brian Windhorst
Okay.
Unnamed Speaker
You know that, that summer, that's that one summer, first summer when I got there, I grew, I grew a lot, A lot. And that's, that's what really helped me in my, in my basketball.
Brian Windhorst
So your cousin Zoran Planisich. How'd I do with that one?
Unnamed Speaker
First name was good, last name planning itch.
Brian Windhorst
Okay. Blast. Blasted it. So he was a rookie my first year covering the NBA. I certainly remember him with the Nets. But I guess it had to help that you had a family member who was an NBA player.
Unnamed Speaker
Oh, for sure. That's the, that's the reason why I started playing it when he first got drafted, bunch of us kids back home, we were like, we want to be like him. We want to go, we want to be NBA players, we want to play basketball. And he helped me a lot, man. And the funny thing is his head coach was Lawrence Frank who's a president of the Clippers now. So small world. But he definitely helped me a lot and was the reason why I got into basketball at first.
Brian Windhorst
I think his rookie year was the year that Byron Scott got fired and Lawrence Frank took over. I'm sure he was part of the player protest as a rookie Croatian who told, told Byron Scott to get. I'm sure he was part of that player revolt.
Unnamed Speaker
No doubt he was. Yeah, he talked to me about that. But I don't think he was involved in the decision much.
Brian Windhorst
I'm sure. I'm sure you're right. Might have some. Jason Kidd might have. Might have a little bit more to.
Unnamed Speaker
Do with it, I think. I think so. Yeah.
Brian Windhorst
But you were a Laker fan growing up.
Unnamed Speaker
Yeah, yeah. That's the. That's the. Actually, I knew my Cousin was an NBA, but I didn't really follow the NBA. I was 6, 7 at the time.
Brian Windhorst
It's impossible to follow the NBA from Europe.
Unnamed Speaker
From Eastern Europe. Yeah. And it's. You know, when you're a kid, you got to go to school, the games are in the middle of the night, parents don't let you stay up all night. So it was hard to follow. But when I started following NBA was really with that Celtics and Lakers rivalry. Rivalry where they went to Finals few times, and that's where I fell in love with Kobe and the Lakers.
Brian Windhorst
And then you got to be a Laker, so that you're one of the few players not that many guys have ever been a Laker and a Clipper.
Unnamed Speaker
Yeah, no, I. I definitely. I got lucky with that trade.
Brian Windhorst
So what's the difference between being a Laker and a Clipper? Living in la, you've.
Unnamed Speaker
You. You draw much less attention as a Clipper than as a Laker. It's a big. It's a big Laker, Laker City. And there's a definitely big difference in that aspect. But I really like being part of the Clippers now, and I think we have the best. Best owner in an NBA, An NBA who. Who's so invested in our team, who's making sure we got everything. We. We got new facility, new arena is amazing. I wouldn't want to wish to be anywhere else.
Brian Windhorst
Yeah. So obviously you guys all like him. I'm not saying anything about that. But you guys have to have fun. Watching Steve Ballmer act like a fool on the baseline, I mean, it's. He's on. He's. He doesn't. He doesn't apologize for it, but, like, you guys have to kind of laugh at him because he's kind of ridiculous.
Unnamed Speaker
You should see him once he. One after the big wins, once he gets in the locker room, it's even crazier. So it's fun, man, having an owner like that who really enjoys it. And he's very passionate, almost, you know, probably more passionate than us about it. It's. It's really fun.
Brian Windhorst
So I want to talk about the start of this season when you guys went to Hawaii. That's another thing he does. He takes you guys to Hawaii a lot.
Unnamed Speaker
Yeah. Yeah.
Brian Windhorst
Obviously this year is going to be different. Kawhi was not playing. Paul George was gone. But, like, from the first day, I was. I remember being around your team early in the season, but from the first days of the season, I could tell that, you know, you guys were like, we're going to play hard every night. We're going to defend. You guys have done that and, you know, you got. You've been a part of all these teams where there were huge expectations.
Unnamed Speaker
Yeah.
Brian Windhorst
And this year you come in and the team had. Everybody had low expectations or no expectations.
Unnamed Speaker
Yeah.
Brian Windhorst
And I feel like from talking to people, I wasn't in Hawaii. I wish I was, but I wasn't there. But I feel like it kind of started. Started at the training camp, so I don't know if. Did you feel like what you guys started focusing on training camp made a big difference?
Unnamed Speaker
For sure. It was the first year, you know, we kind of didn't have expectations, and it was a bunch of, like, scrappy guys, good role players and, and James really, you know, because we knew Kawhi is going to be out for a little bit. So there was no expectations, but we knew. We knew what we got. And our coaching staff that kept telling us, you know, we're going to play defense this year. We're going to. We're going to be scrappy. We're going to turn the, Turn the teams over and some guys are going to have bigger roles offensively, but by playing the defense like we play, we're going to have a chance every single night. And guys really bought in. And once JVG started running our defense, like, once you see a guy who's in a gym all day long, first one in a gym, him, he pulled. Pulling guys aside. He watching films individually with everyone. He. He's ready for. He got every coverage in the book that you can imagine. He. He's ready for it. He got. He can make any adjustment. He's ready for anything on the court. And when you. When you're led on the defensive end by that guy, you're going to buy in. And that's what happened.
Brian Windhorst
Yeah. So this is a guy that Jeff Van Gunda you're talking about, who you really didn't know as anything but a television commentator.
Unnamed Speaker
Exactly. That's what I told him in the beginning. I was like, you know, I heard you talking on the tv, but I didn't know, like, I didn't know what you do. How good of A coach you are. And he. He showed everyone what he does and how committed he is to the basketball.
Brian Windhorst
And it's kind of strange that people from the team have told me that. It's amazing to watch him and James Harden. These are two guys who are very, very different, but they, like, bonded.
Unnamed Speaker
Yeah, they did. They did. He's. He pushed every one of us, you know, to be better defensively, and he did the same with James. Really pushed him, and he wanted more from him, and they bonded over that.
Brian Windhorst
Let me ask you this. Let me take it one step back. Before that, you signed a really nice contract extension last summer. Congratulations on that, by the way.
Unnamed Speaker
Thank you.
Brian Windhorst
The Clippers were obviously going a certain direction. You know, like, they were re. You know, James Harden resigned, but obviously Paul's gone. Like, did you question whether or not do I want it? Because you're going into your prime years here. Did you have any doubts? Like, actually, why don't I wait and see what happens with this team? Obviously you didn't. I just wanted to know maybe what they told you and what you were thinking when you signed that.
Unnamed Speaker
No, I never. I never really thought about going anywhere else. I always wanted to be part of this team. And I really like the ownership, the front office, the coaching staff, T. Lou, you know, I would like to play him for him as long as I can. His. His amazing coach, and I really want to stay here. And I. It was never really. No matter who was on the team, I always wanted to stay here. But, you know, James resigning. We. We got Kawhi getting healthy, we're signing all these guys. I always knew. I always knew we're going to be competitive and that we're gonna. We're gonna be good with being led by Tyloo. So it was never really a question for me and all the people that were saying, you know, we're gonna win 30 games, 35 games, we're not going to be in a. We're not going to be able to make the playoffs. I never really took it seriously because I knew what we had in on a team, so I always had a belief in this team, and it was never really a question of me staying here.
Brian Windhorst
You can see that when you guys play, you guys definitely play together, and I'm sure that it started right in the beginning of the season. You guys repeated every night. Yeah, you have an interesting. The way you play with Harden is really. It's. You know, there's definitely a chemistry there. Like, I don't know. I don't know what you Thought of him before he was your teammate, but obviously you got guys really play well together.
Unnamed Speaker
Yeah, I mean, obviously, you know, only played against him, didn't know him much, but I've seen all the big men that play with him did really well. So I was very happy when we traded for him. And from the first day he wanted me to stay after practice. He wanted me to stay after shoot around. Let's work on our two man pick and roll game. So we will put, we'll have coaches guard us and we'll just play pick and roll a bunch of possessions and they were mixing, they would mix up different coverages, drop, switch, blitz, whatever they would mix up and we would just work on the different reads. So we, we kept doing that for the whole year. And you can see it on the court. He's, he's a really high IQ player. I can read the, I can read the game at the high level too. So no matter what defense they throw at us, we, we know how to play it. And it's, it's been, it's been amazing here. I think he's one of the best pick and roll players ever, if not the best. And it's, it's pretty easy playing with him.
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, I think it says a lot that, you know, you're in your ninth year and you're having your best year. Like, you know, not everybody has their best year in their ninth year. Like, you've kept working at it. Yeah, Warren Powell, same thing. He's like in his 10th or 11th year. He's having his best year. Yeah, I think that says a lot about your team. But also James, because, because he's helping you guys have, you know, some of these shots who are veterans having great years for sure.
Unnamed Speaker
He, he got a lot of trust and confidence into, into each one of us and he's, he's pushing us a lot. Even when we are not taking some shots that we should take that we, we pass up some opportunities, he's always like, you got to take that shot. When I, when I get the ball in the pocket, when I don't shoot my hook or floater, he's like, you got best of best big man touching the league. You got to shoot that. He, he's always putting confidence in us and he's, he's very smart. Like, he knows where we like to get our shots from, where we like the ball, what side I like my post up, what size Norm likes to coming off of his handoffs and stuff. So he's, he's like, he's few steps ahead of everyone. And it's crazy when you see a player like that, his thought process on a court, how, how, how fast and how fast he thinks and how vhs.
Brian Windhorst
Isn't it amazing how good his footwork is, people? I mean obviously he's been around for a long time.
Unnamed Speaker
Yeah.
Brian Windhorst
Like when you see it like day in and day out, like it's amazing how good.
Unnamed Speaker
No, it's, it's, it's incredible how he, you know, when he got the, when he got it ISO at the top and the way he, where his handle and footwork, how he gets Guys, you know, guys are so anxious to guard him like they're gonna jump even when he looks up. Like it's, it's, it's crazy how he manipulates the defender.
Brian Windhorst
So what Something that's going on right now is your teammates have decided you're going the whole organization, but you're, they've decided they want you to win defensive player of the year.
Unnamed Speaker
Yeah.
Brian Windhorst
And like I've seen you know, look like teams employ public relations staffs and it's their job to do this and sometimes coaches want to help out their players and sometimes like front offices want their players, especially if they're going to be free agents, to, to feel good about the team. You're already signed like you're under a long term contract, but the players are totally bought into. They want you to win it. Like it's something that's happened. This, you know, you guys just came off a long road trip. I gotta say. It hasn't happened very often. And I, and I kind of think, and I'm not on the team, so I don't want to assume. It's kind of got to be an affirming moment for you because look, you were a second round pick. The Lakers kept you for years, traded you. You know, like, you know, you were always like maybe the fourth or fifth, fifth best player on some of these teams and now you're at the spot where you're in the middle of your career and you're having a great year and your teammates are really trying to rally around you kind of because they know you're not really an outspoken guy. So this, this is kind of a cool thing that they're doing this.
Unnamed Speaker
It's been like that since the beginning of the season. We, with some, we supported each other so much. We, the group is really is great man. We got a lot of chemistry. We like playing each other. We like, like spending time off the court together. We, you know, just a bunch of guys that, that are scrappy, that I want to see each other do well. And you know, coming into the season, JVG was. When I talked to jvg, he told me he wants me to be a defensive player of the year and think our defense being this good this year, I think I'm a big part of that. So I'm very happy with the guys supporting me me in that way. You know, it does happen a lot around this league, especially this league. There's a lot of egos and stuff. It's very rarely a team like this. And I knew it was a special year once beginning of the year. I can't remember how, how early into the season we were, but Chris Dunn asked me where I were I all star before. And I looked at him crazy. You know, I was not even close one time. So he. I knew it was a special season for me when guys were asking me was I all star before. And I really, you know, being my season nine and making this step and I think it's. It's only going to get better next year and hopefully years after that. I'm very happy where, where I'm at right now.
Brian Windhorst
People definitely know when you're coming on the schedule. You've developed a reputation where it's like oh man, I got to deal with zoo.
Unnamed Speaker
I think so I see, I see a lot of double teams lately. So I think, I think I got to that point.
Brian Windhorst
Well, your stats feel like since the all star break you're stick. You know, I don't even know but they have. They're 22 and 13. Like you're putting up big scoring games, which I know isn't always been your forte. But like you're really scoring.
Unnamed Speaker
I mean for sure. Yeah. And you know we missed, we missed some games. Norm missed some games. Kawhi missed some games. So that was needed more was needed from me. And now when they're back, it's kind of. It stayed like that. You know, I'm getting more touches, I'm getting more post touches. The pick and roll game with James playing a lot of minutes. Feel good, body feels good, feeling strong. It's. It feels is normal now.
Brian Windhorst
Yeah. Well, you guys are playing great. I think one 9 out of 11 as we're recording this one more thing. So you've been in the league and you've watched the league transform into like the three point shooting league. It's basically happened during your career. Yeah, all these big guys stepping out and shooting threes. That's not been you. Like you I think you've made 13 in your whole career. Do you remember it?
Unnamed Speaker
I do. I do. Actually, it was against Houston. It was probably the last game of the season. Tilo wanted to sit me out because, you know, we already secured our playoff spot, but I didn't want to. I had a streak or I don't know how many games played in a row. So he was like, I'm a. You're going to be in for the first play. Going to run a high. Pick and rule, pick and roll. You're in. Rondo, you pop, pop. He going to hit. You shoot the three, and I'm taking you out. And I shot it. I made it. He took me out, and that was it. But I always. I always thought, you know, with all these big shooting threes and doing that kind of stuff, I always. I always thought there's a. There's a place for a more traditional big in a league, and I think league is more going back to the bigs again. I feel like there's more and more teams playing with two bigs at the t same time, and I'm. I'm very happy about that.
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, you're going. You're going. Don't change anything. Don't change anything because what you're doing is working. I Zubotsa Zoo. Thank you for your time. Good luck the rest of the season, and thanks. Bye.
Unnamed Speaker
For sure. Thank you for having me.
Brian Windhorst
All right, thanks to Evitza Zubots. I don't know if I got that right, Jax, but I just need one of those shirts because that's what those shirts that they're passing out say they have his pronunciation on, so I botched it. All right, thank you to Kevin Pelt in the Machine for stopping by. Thank you to Zubots. Thank you to Jeff Jackson, our producer. Thank you for watching. Listen to the who collective. We'll talk to you next week.
Podcast Summary: Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
Episode: 2024-25 Large Sample-Size Theater & Clippers’ Center Ivica Zubac Interview
Release Date: April 4, 2025
In the April 4, 2025 episode of Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective, host Brian Windhorst engages in an insightful discussion with ESPN analyst Kevin Pelton about the evolving landscape of three-point shooting in the NBA, the remarkable performance of the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the ongoing MVP race. The episode culminates with an exclusive interview featuring Clippers Center Ivica Zubac, shedding light on his journey and the Clippers' strategy this season.
Timestamp: 01:18 – 16:55
Brian Windhorst initiates the conversation by highlighting the season's key focus on large sample-size theater, a term used to analyze trends over the entire NBA season rather than early small sample sizes. The primary topic revolves around the dominance and saturation of three-point shooting in the league.
Key Discussions:
Three-Point Shooting Peak:
Pelton remarks, “the three pointer is too valuable, that the NBA has to do something,” referencing a thought piece by Kurt Goldsberry advocating for the elimination of the corner three-pointer. However, Pelton counters this by emphasizing the sustained increase in three-point attempts, particularly led by the Boston Celtics.
Boston Celtics' Three-Point Dominance:
The Celtics have been setting records, such as taking 62 three-pointers in a game against Memphis. Pelton notes, “they are still going to be number one historically in three point attempts and percentage of shots.”
Impact on Team Strategies:
Windhorst discusses the shift from merely collecting three-point shooters to encouraging all players, including traditional centers, to develop three-point shooting capabilities. He states, “the tipping point for me was when teams went from just collecting three point shooters... to encouraging guys who are not three point shooters to shoot three.”
Defensive Implications:
The increase in three-point shooting has defensive repercussions, making it challenging for traditional big men to defend the perimeter effectively. Pelton adds, “Porzingis inverts the entire defenses when he stretches.”
Notable Quotes:
Kevin Pelton (02:53):
“There’s no way that you can argue that the three should be 50% more valuable than the two at this point.”
Brian Windhorst (06:11):
"The tipping point for me was when teams went from just collecting three point shooters... to encouraging guys who are not three point shooters to shoot three."
Timestamp: 12:16 – 21:29
The discussion shifts to the Oklahoma City Thunder's exceptional performance against Eastern Conference teams. With a record of 29-1 against the East, the Thunder have demonstrated unparalleled dominance.
Key Insights:
Point Differential Record:
Pelton highlights, “predictably the Thunder continue to head towards what is likely going to be the greatest point differential in NBA history.”
Comparison with Historical Teams:
The Thunder’s point differential surpasses legendary teams like the 1971-72 Lakers and even rivals the 2015-16 Warriors' impressive records.
Performance Against the West:
While the Thunder are outstanding against East teams, Pelton notes their performance against Western teams is average, holding a point differential of +10.6, which is still strong but not record-breaking.
Notable Quotes:
Kevin Pelton (14:58):
“They have not been quite as good against the west as they have against the East.”
Brian Windhorst (16:55):
“Another thing that has happened this season is the Oklahoma City Thunder have completed their schedule against the Eastern Conference and are at 29-1.”
Timestamp: 21:29 – 25:32
The conversation delves into the ongoing MVP race, focusing on Nikola Jokic’s performance and his standing against contenders like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Key Points:
Jokic's Statistical Dominance:
Pelton emphasizes Jokic's superior advanced metrics, stating, “Jokic has been a clear number one throughout his MVP reign in those metrics.”
Comparative Metrics:
While some metrics like EPM (Effective Performance Metric) have Gilgeous-Alexander slightly ahead, Jokic's overall impact remains dominant.
Impact of Playoff Performances:
Windhorst mentions Jokic’s triple-double performance in a double-overtime game as a significant yet context-sensitive factor in the MVP race.
Notable Quotes:
Kevin Pelton (23:04):
“Nikola Jokic has been a clear number one throughout his MVP reign in those metrics.”
Brian Windhorst (25:08):
“I would be surprised if there’s anything Jokic could do at this point.”
Timestamp: 25:32 – 34:22
Brian Windhorst and Kevin Pelton analyze the Golden State Warriors’ performance, arguing that they might be the overlooked number two seed in the Western Conference.
Key Discussions:
Recent Performance Surge:
Since the All-Star break, the Warriors have gone 16-4, boasting the second-best net rating in the NBA, only surpassed by the Thunder.
Defensive Turnaround:
The addition of Jimmy Butler has revitalized the Warriors' defense, with Pelton noting, “the Warriors suddenly started forcing turnovers more than anyone in the league.”
Potential Playoff Implications:
The Warriors' improved defense and offensive efficiency position them as formidable contenders, possibly securing the secret second seed.
Notable Quotes:
Kevin Pelton (28:20):
“Since the All Star break, they have the second best net rating in the NBA at 9.7 points per hundred possessions.”
Brian Windhorst (31:58):
“I do think that our data says about whether this is something that can transfer to a large sample size...”
Timestamp: 43:08 – 60:59
The episode transitions to an engaging interview with Ivica Zubac, Clippers’ center, who shares his journey from Croatia to the NBA, his development, and the Clippers' strategies this season.
Key Topics:
Early Life and Move to Zagreb:
Zubac recounts leaving his home at 14 to join Cebona in Zagreb. He reflects, “I started doubting myself... but I started being better than those guys.”
Influence of Family:
His cousin, Zoran Planjitch, an NBA player, significantly impacted his basketball aspirations. “He helped me a lot and was the reason why I got into basketball at first,” Zubac states.
Joining the Clippers:
Discussing his transition from being a Laker fan to a Clipper, Zubac expresses enthusiasm for the team's direction and ownership. “I really like being part of the Clippers now, and I think we have the best owner in the NBA.”
Defense and Team Chemistry:
Zubac highlights the Clippers' commitment to defense under coach Tyronn Lue and the positive impact of teammate James Harden on team dynamics. “He's pushing us to take the shots we need,” Zubac explains about Harden.
Personal Development:
Reflecting on his career, Zubac mentions experiencing his best season in his ninth year, attributing it to teamwork and personal growth. “This is a special season for me... I'm very happy where I'm at right now.”
Notable Quotes:
Ivica Zubac (43:45):
“I always wanted to stay here... I always had a belief in this team.”
Ivica Zubac (53:20):
“He’s a really high IQ player... we know how to play it.”
Brian Windhorst (59:00):
“You're going. You're going. Don’t change anything because what you're doing is working. I Zubac’s needs to be done."
The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the current NBA season's trends, particularly the emphasis on three-point shooting and its strategic implications. Kevin Pelton's insights shed light on team performances and statistical trends, while Ivica Zubac's interview offers a personal perspective on player development and team dynamics within the Clippers organization. Windhorst adeptly ties these discussions to broader themes in the NBA, making the episode a valuable listen for both avid fans and casual followers.
Notable Quotes Overview:
Kevin Pelton (02:53):
“There’s no way that you can argue that the three should be 50% more valuable than the two at this point.”
Brian Windhorst (06:11):
"The tipping point for me was when teams went from just collecting three point shooters... to encouraging guys who are not three point shooters to shoot three."
Ivica Zubac (43:45):
“He’s a really high IQ player... we know how to play it.”
This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the podcast episode, providing listeners with a thorough understanding of the topics covered without needing to access the original transcript.