← Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
Analyzing Giannis’ Possible Destinations + Time For Change For Knicks & Cavs? + OKC Trade Rumor?
00:52:45
Hoop Collective: Analyzing Giannis’ Possible Destinations + Time For Change For Knicks & Cavs? + OKC Trade Rumor?
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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Welcome to the Hoop Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA which we're doing on Thursday afternoon or in morning in some cases. Joining us from Naples, Florida, before I think he's going to be joining me in LA for a long stretch is our front office man, Bobby Marks.
- [00:19]
B
Hello, Brian. And a very happy birthday to you, my friend.
- [00:22]
A
Oh yes, I'm celebrating it with a podcast. What would you. Either way, I'm celebrating. My gift to myself is not having Bontemps McMahon. Joining us from Seattle, the Machine, Kevin Pelton.
- [00:33]
C
Happy birthday, Brian. I think we'll spare you the scene of happy birthday from Bobby.
- [00:37]
A
Thank you very much. Just consider it done. Bobby, before we go on, I was supposed to mention this last time you were on and I just forgot it was my fault. You have got something interesting happening and I want to promote it right now coming up over All Star Week in la, so.
- [00:51]
B
Well, you're not the only one who forgets. Every time I do a YouTube video I'm supposed to mention it and then I think I'm over five. So at least we're kind of getting it in right before we take. We get going in here. Yeah, no, that's why you said we're going to probably see each other for a while. I am in. Besides the trade deadline next week, I will be in LA the following week. During All Star Week, we are running Sports Business Classroom, same program that we did in Las Vegas during the summer. A week of intensive experiences learning everything from salary cap to scouting, video analytics, media broadcasting, agent negotiations here. But we have a full week of curriculum right in downtown Lake.
- [01:27]
A
You've done this in Vegas for a couple years. Have you had any graduates go on to NBA jobs?
- [01:33]
B
I have, I've actually had some graduates also. I had a real quick a lady 2 years ago who's actually a district attorney in Dallas who was thinking of making a career change and she did. She wound up becoming an agent and she got certified and I helped her with the process and now she represents college football players in the portal. And the funny story is that two weeks ago she reached out to me because she had three players in the in who were going through the portal and wanted to see if somehow ESPN could publicize it. And, and I reached out to Pete Thammel who covered does college football and he. I didn't even realize we have like our own portal guy. So Max Olson who does everything from the college football portal and transfers. We, we connected her with her and they were able, she was able to get a little publicity publicity here. But yeah, we've got a really good turnout of people that eventually turn out to go out and get a job in college or pros or if you want to make a career change.
- [02:29]
A
And what's the website? Sportsbusinessclassroom.com okay, easy enough.
- [02:34]
C
There you go.
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A
Dalton. We have an NBA player in the portal. Unofficially.
- [02:40]
C
I don't know. I keep waiting for that notification to transfer to pop through and it still isn't there.
- [02:45]
A
We went over it at pretty much length with Bob Thompson McMahon when this came out on Wednesday. But I do want to flush a couple of things out. Bobby, I need your expertise here. So in studying the situations, you know, I think one of the things we've talked about is what Golden State can offer. And since we have an expert here, Golden State has all of their draft picks. So they can offer four first round picks unprotected if they wanted for Giannis or anybody else or they could offer less.
- [03:17]
B
The one real quick, the one in 30 is they can. It's basically they're sending half of it. So it's basically three and three quarters because 21 to 30 goes to the Wizards. But it actually the better part would go to another team cause it's, it would be unprotected 1 to 20.
- [03:33]
A
Okay, so the Bucks can only accept so many swaps, is that correct?
- [03:39]
B
Yeah, they've, they've, they've raised basically have remortgaged swaps on a lot of different things. They owe Portland swaps and, and 28 and 30. That was from the Lillard trade. They owe Washington. There's some re swaps from the Middleton Kuzma trade that was done last off season, last deadline here. So yeah, it's the, the ability to re swap and swap again. It basically kind of loses its, its value there.
- [04:08]
A
Right. So even if you wanted to, if you know, for, if Golden State or somebody else wanted to give more swaps, I don't know why they would. They, they're limited in how many swaps they can take because they've already swapped their, some of their picks.
- [04:19]
B
Well, I guess technically you could do it, but you're basically not getting really the much the value of it. If you're looking at it from, you know, from, you know, if golden, you know, basically, basically it's going to be a lot of how the, the language would be in there potentially more valuable.
- [04:34]
C
From Milwaukee's standpoint because if they're at the bottom of the line in terms of swaps now, it makes it more likely that that pick is going to be very low and more likely that Golden State's pick would be higher, you know, better in the draft and therefore potentially more valuable for them.
- [04:49]
A
There is a, there's an asterisk attached to the swaps. This is what we're doing here. I'm trying to clarify also because we went over your chart, the last couple of podcasts where we talked about tradable first round picks. Now I'd like to talk about the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat and the Golden State Warriors, I believe are two important possible trade partners here. Again, I don't know if Milwaukee will actually make a trade, but I think those are two of the leading options. Miami is at a disadvantage, Bobby, because they owe two first round picks, one I believe to my, to Oklahoma City and one they owe to Charlotte. The relatively infamous pick that they gave for Terry Rozier when they were not aware that Terry Rozier was under investigation for point shaving or whatever you want to call that match fixing. It has been explained to me that if the Miami Heat could Somehow acquire a 2027 first round pick, any of those picks, that it could change the hand that they're holding. Are you able to explain that?
- [05:52]
B
Yeah, I mean, so real quick, the. So they already sent that Oklahoma City first last that got conveyed at last year's draft. So right now they're outstanding. First is the, is the Charlotte first, which is top 14 protected in 2027. It becomes unprotected in 28 if it's not conveyed from the prior year. So right now you're looking at it from a trade standpoint because you can't trade picks in back to back years. You're looking at 2030 and 2032 as far as the most they can send out in, in a deal. Now, as you said, the ability to acquire a 2027 to add to your allotment of picks would certainly be, would be the goal if you're the Heat. And I think just talking to teams and canvassing the league, it feels like that's a little bit of a theme that if Milwaukee is like, well, we like your player, but can you turn him into something else? Right? Can you turn him into multiple, multiple first here? And that's where that, that 27 first would come into play if Miami's able to do that. I think the other thing too is, which is interesting, if this gets into the, if we don't, if there is no deal and we get into the off season, teams begin to have more picks available to trade in a deal because then you, if you're Miami. You could trade the rights to your pick on, in, in the 20s in this year's draft. And then we have this. I don't want to complicate everyone, the seven year rule, which is basically now we're looking at it from 2027 to 2033. It basically, sometimes it's like a multiplier, so it doesn't apply to every team, but then it would give Miami, I think maybe potentially have four picks that they could trade in a deal there.
- [07:31]
A
Right. So if Miami, long story short, today they could trade two, but if they wait, they could trade four. And if they till the summer and if they make a deal for a 27 pick, they could trade for.
- [07:44]
B
Yeah, they, they'll. If they, if they can't trade the.
- [07:47]
A
27 pick, they have to hold on.
- [07:48]
B
Well, it's either, it's. They can't trade 27 because that's, that's going to Charlotte right now of their own.
- [07:55]
A
Right. But if they got another 27 first round pick, they could check the box that they have a 27 first round pick and that would unlock 28, 20, 20, 26 and 28. Right. So they could go from two to four.
- [08:08]
B
It just gives you a lot more flexibility as far as to be able to do things.
- [08:11]
A
And I would just say, I realize that this is all very complicated, but the reason I wanted these guys on here is they lead, they lead the league in explaining complicated stuff. And you know, like Bobby, I don't know, I feel like in talking to the league, the last couple, and really, let's be honest, last couple of months, there's been an expectation that Giannis would be available and the Bucks would take offers whether it was at the deadline or in the summer. And there were decisions being made last summer, Pelton, where teams were holding their assets to save for a player like Giannis, if not Giannis himself. And so I think that there's a, there's a. Bobby, there's going to be a lot of teams. You know. You know, one thing I'm going to say here and Bobby, maybe you can explain this, but the word offer is a. It's a tough thing for those of us as reporters right now, because that's what the fans and frankly, what's what our editors want? The editors are like, well, what teams have made offers? You know, tell us the teams that have made offers for Giannis. And this is where we sort of squirm in our seat and we're like, well, sound like Bill Clinton. It depends on what the Definition of the word is is because offer is a very heavily loaded word. Can you explain that, Bobby? And can you explain if you were in a front office that was interested in Giannis, what the process would be when you would call John Horst and the Bucks on this?
- [09:32]
B
Yeah, I mean, that's a good point. I mean, I think that's a big reason why we put out the Giannis trade guide. We basically let the readers pick what, what could be offered. Like we basically just said, here are the 29 teams and here are the 11 teams that can offer the most in a deal here. I, I think if you are reverse it a little bit here. I think if you're in Milwaukee, you're certainly looking that, you know, the superstar checklist of players and Kevin could probably talk about it too, a lot more like, you know, draft equity, controllable contracts, expirings or movables. I call it movable salary. So if you're Golden State, is that like Jimmy Butler, who you can maybe flip again next, next deadline? I, I do think when you are engaging, just because I've, it's happened before in, when I was in New Jersey, slash Brooklyn with, whether it be Carl, Mel Anthony or Dwight Howard or Darren Williams was a little bit different. You know, big trades like that, you're, you're a, you're getting a sense as far as what it will take, right? You're kind of like what, you know, hey, what are you guys looking for? And, and they'll, you know, John will probably say he'll shoot for the moon and he'll say, you know, if it's, you know, team A, hey, we're looking for four unprotected. First, we're looking for two young players. We're looking for expiring contracts. I don't like that player on your roster. Can you turn him into something El. So it, there is a little bit of a dance, a little bit of a stare down here as far as what we'll go through. And as you said, we're only a week away in saying this and then I'll let KP jump in. I do think there is a little more sense of urgency regarding getting something done, at least from, from, you know, if you're Giannis and if you're a team acquiring him, because then we take into play the extension rules. He's eligible in October to sign an extension. So if he's traded now, he's still eligible in October. If we wait until July, that extension, although he could still do it, but he can't extend for the maximum amount until January. So there is a little bit more of like it. Like we'd rather get something done now if you're in a team interested or even if you're in, you know, if you're in Giannis's camp there.
- [11:37]
C
So I think the first thing to go back to what Brian was saying in the first place and then what Bobby was building on that like, you know, there's been so much discussion about why have there been so few trades where we've only seen the one since, you know, the, the summer period all season and typically we'd see, you know, a handful by this point in the NBA calendar and Giannis is probably a factor in that. Because if you're one of these teams that thinks you had a shot at Giannis or then because of the tentacles of that trade potentially going out in the league and involving all these other teams, you know, because what you're talking about of turn your player into something from a third team. You know, Brian used to always say three team trade is a no team trade. Now a two team trade is a no team trade.
- [12:24]
A
That's true.
- [12:24]
C
I've had to come back. You gotta have three in almost everything.
- [12:26]
A
Yeah.
- [12:27]
C
So it's probably holding up the entire market to a degree. Especially because, you know, to Bobby's point about the checklist, there's not a lot of teams that satisfy all of those criteria with just the one team. You know, Houston could do it, San Antonio could do it. Those are the teams that have the combination.
- [12:45]
A
Do you not think Golden State qualifies? Do you not think that they would have, you know, do you include Jonathan Kaminga as an attractive young player? I mean, do you include Brandon Pajewski? Like, does that do that? Do those guys, I mean, Pajemski is from Milwaukee. I mean, is he, does he qualify?
- [13:00]
C
He's not kind of, you know, he's not the, the level of first asking for.
- [13:05]
A
Right. Yeah, right. He's not Vijay Edgecombe.
- [13:06]
C
But I mean, I think Golden State has the clearest path to a deal for the reason between two.
- [13:10]
A
The way I've described it is in my view, and correct me if you think I'm wrong, Bobby, Golden State has the best pathway in a two team deal.
- [13:18]
B
Yeah. And it's similar to like, and I know Desmond Bain is not in the criteria of Giannis, but Orlando had the best pathway to get Desmond Bain because of, you know, that was the amount of picks that were traded. There were no other teams involved. That was a two team. We'll trade you two players for one. Here's all the picks, the money matches when you look at it. And even if you wanted to expand this trade, which, if it ever does come to fruition, you can add more to it, whether it be. You could add coming it to it. You can add whatever money coming back in Milwaukee, whether it be Portis or Kuzma or anything like that. But I do think, like Shams had mentioned, there was four teams that were aggressively interested, which included Golden State, Miami, Minnesota and New York. I do think out of the four teams, like, Golden State's the cleanest. Right. Like, they're, like, they have two injured players, and I know Aianis is hurt compared to the other three teams, and maybe, maybe put Miami a little bit out of the equation doing a deal with New York or Minnesota. Like, those teams are going to basically have to trade two or three core players out of their group and then have to wait until maybe mid March for Giannis to come back. So I do think it's, as you said, Brian, I think Golden State is probably more. Is more direct, it's cleaner. Maybe it's not all three boxes. Maybe it's two and a half of the boxes of what you're looking for.
- [14:43]
A
Yeah. When you think about Minnesota, I think Sham's saying that was very interesting. Be honest, it has been out there that there is interest there from Minnesota and from Giannis. I think that's related to ant. You don't hear too often about a star player saying, boy, Minnesota's on my list. Whether they're fourth on my list or eighth. This doesn't happen very often. He's on the list. It's possible. I will say that it's kind of reminds me of last year when Minnesota was in the second apron and they had all of these restrictions and they were trying to trade for Kevin Durant. The connection there being the. Again, Ann Edwards and Kevin Durant's connection. They were talking to Phoenix in. Also in the second April, and they're trying to make this trade and they're hunting down avenues to try to make this trade. And I respect Minnesota for doing it. There was interest, but I. I just. I didn't see a pathway for it to get done. And it didn't get done. I. I would never put anything past, you know, Tim Connolly. He's made several major huge acquisitions in his tenure. I think it'd be pretty hard to beat the other offers. I don't know. I don't know how you feel about that, Pelton, but I feel like that, you know, just, you know, and discussing Minnesota real quick.
- [15:56]
C
Yeah, we're, we're building, you know, Zach Cram and I fake Giannis trades for Bobby to evaluate and Minnesota is one of the teams I got assigned and that's the challenge. So it is, I think, a little different because, you know, the value proposition last year with Durant I think was reasonable from Minnesota's standpoint when you look at what he ended up eventually getting traded for to Houston. Like they, they couldn't offer the Phoenix's own lottery pick that ended up number 10 as part of it, but the players who were going back as part of that deal, you know, would have been more helpful to Phoenix in the short term than, than, I mean obviously Dylan Brooks has worked for them, but Jalen Green has barely played at all this season. So that, that part of it I think they could have worked out. It was more the financial piece here. It's the how do you create the value with very limited picks to trade? Much more so even than Miami and the young talent recent first round picks that they have on the roster other than Yuan Baron J. I mean it's been a couple of years and Rob Dillingham and Terence Shannon Jr. Haven't taken advantage of their opportunities to crack into the Minnesota rotation. So as you're considering them is Milwaukee, I don't think they have the value that those draft equivalent draft picks would have had. You know where they were taken two years ago, right? More Hoop Collective Podcast after this Access.
- [17:13]
A
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- [18:41]
C
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- [19:12]
A
So let's discuss New York real quick. I think New York has asked themselves a basic question, Bobby. Are we good enough? You know, they had a very nice win Wednesday, by the way, against Toronto. In Toronto, despite missing a couple of key players. Karl Towns, who's been under a little bit of fire, people have been keeping an eye on his plus minus and whatnot. Carl had 22 rebounds in that game. New York's won four in a row after losing nine of 11. But you know, this is a team that, you know, they had a shot at Giannis last summer. There was some level of negotiation between the Bucks and the and the Knicks. Whether or not the Bucs would have actually gone through with it, we'll never know. But the Knicks were somewhat limited because they couldn't offer Mikhail Bridges in that trade because he had just signed a contract. But having said that, I think it's a, it's a key question that New York has to think about, whether it's for Giannis or anybody else, are they good enough? And they're a team who, as you guys talked about earlier, if you were going to make an offer for Giannis there, it's tough for them to do it because they've only got one first to trade and it's not even a guaranteed first. It might not even, probably won't even convey. So they would probably have to get a third or fourth team involved to improve their offer. But before they even go down into the realm, I mean, there's pathways. I've had discussions with executives about the pathways that New York could go down. You know, in sample three Team trades that would deliver draft picks and intriguing prospects and quality players to Milwaukee. It can be done. The question is, should New York do it? And you know, so Bobby, you know, this is something I think that the Knicks are probably have got to ask themselves going into this and anything else they might want to do at the deadline.
- [20:49]
B
Yeah, I mean it's, I know there was higher expectations now compared to 2011, but they had a pretty good team and they went out and traded most of their, a lot of good players and picks and stuff when they went out and got Carmelo and it's totally, you know, 14 or 15 years later. But those, it's the in season trades when you're, you know, when you're, when you're taking three or four players off your roster and doing that, I think with New York, are they good enough? I think what we've seen of late, you know, the Toronto game on Wednesday, certainly most of that Philly game on Saturday, I think you have to be somewhat comfortable as far as where they're, where they're playing right now and they've got some winnable games coming up right now. But it's, it is a risk. A team that's a, I guess, built to win now. And I say, you say, yeah, you can get Giannis and you can, you know, accelerate that here. But I think the big question is like, you know, certainly it would be Towns, I would think. Right. And then what other, what other pieces. Is it Bridges? Is it Anobi? I think like, you know, when we're talking about expanding it to two or to three or four teams if you're a Milwaukee, or say, wait a minute, what does Anunobi do for us? And then I'll be like, wait a minute, I'll call Portland and try to get our picks back. Right. There's like all these different mechanisms here as far as how you. This thing would basically get built out, but for New York, I just think, man, it is a risk. I know I get the appeal of Giannis and I get the appeal of how great he is, but I do think it's, it's a risk. This is, as you mentioned it, Brian and Charlie and Kevin, like this is a perfect off season trade, right? Like this is what you want to do in the off season. You don't want to do this on February 5th and you've got 30 games left in the season.
- [22:28]
C
Yeah. It makes me wonder if some of these teams, like we sort of alluded to this with Miami, you know, maybe they rectify it by getting that 27 first, and then, you know, it allows them to trade two extra, having one more pick. But some of these teams, like you, almost want to run out the clock here and try to force this to the off season because it's more favorable from that standpoint, sort of on the bigger picture. Question in the Knicks, are they good enough? You know, there was a discussion after the Dallas loss about, you know, they would. Which dropped them to 2 and 9 in their previous 11 games. And you were mentioning the opponent shooting against them, and McMahon sort of, you know, pooh, poohed it and dismissed that by, you know, saying that the effort wasn't good enough when he was watching. And I was all prepared to come on this podcast and say, oh, you know, shot variance, randomness and small samples, et cetera, et cetera. It actually isn't the case for the Knicks. Like, their shot quality was wildly different in that stretch. The. If you look at the. Through December 29th, when things are sort of riding high, they'd won the NBA cup or closing in on Detroit for first in the east. They were eighth in offense, eighth in defense in shot quality. And that is, that is good enough. That's. That can get you to the Finals, especially in con, in combination with how good their offensive rebounding is.
- [23:41]
A
Do you think, by the way, when Jim Dolan did that radio interview and said we, we can, we should win the east and we can win the Finals, that he was using the shot quality metrics?
- [23:51]
C
I don't know how much he's digging into really grinding the genius. I don't know, the genius IQ. But the stretch where they went 2 and 9, 14th on offense, 24th on defense and shot quality. So they legitimately were, you know, from a process standpoint, playing much worse. And then they bounced back the last four games, second on offense, third in defense. So, you know, I think that's. That's sort of a little more difficult for me to evaluate than if it had been a cleaner story of, oh, this is just opponents. We're making a bunch of threes against us.
- [24:20]
A
You know, I think if you're a Knicks fan, you're like, just get me honest, right? You've watched this team, you know, you just like, just give me honest like that, you know, beyond the metrics of it. And, you know, I have the. I have to take a different data point. Which is what. Which is their actions. Their actions last summer were that they weren't aggressive about it. And the other thing is there's two ends of this contract so talked about Giannis's ability to sign an extension. And I would think, Bobby, if you were going to offer an enormous amount of draft capital or young players or whatever, you would do that you would want and have a pretty good idea that Giannis was going to take your extension. And that extension, I believe, is. Can be four years and what, 270, something like that?
- [25:04]
B
275, actually.
- [25:05]
A
If.
- [25:06]
B
If he actually, you know, I know it's just semantics here. If you actually. If he opted in and then extended for three years, he probably can make another million dollars. So, I mean, it's kind of like, pick, pick whatever one you want to do.
- [25:18]
A
Well, one thing I think I know about Giannis is that he does consider the money. The money is not just insignificant to him. He talks about it. You know, that's one of the things. Like, you know, if you're in one of the Texas teams, you can say, hey, state income tax. But it's also a consideration for the team. You know, the team giving him 275 million for a guy who's 31 years old, who is having calf problems. I think most teams would say yes, but I'm not sure everybody would. In fact, I know that there's one team I talked to who would be able to put a package together, a pretty compelling package, and they said, we're just not crazy about that contract with our other options that we can do. Just don't know if we want to commit to 75 to them. And if, you know, you can't trade all that stuff if you're not that committed to them. So that's a thing, too. Like, if you're looking at New York and, you know, I'm not saying this is what New York is thinking, but, you know, when they didn't do that, didn't very aggressively go after him, when they had an exclusive window, to use Sham's words, last summer, that was an indication of what they thought about their team and what they thought about Giannis. And, you know, it's what Jim Dolan talked about on that Craig Cardin interview. He said, I've made that. He goes, we've gotten into trouble in the past. When I've chased the shiny object and I have. I've abandoned our plan, well, this would be an abandoning of their plan. But if you're a Knicks fan and you've watched the team struggle for the last month, you'd say, well, you could have a plan up one side and down the other. If the team's not good enough, the team's not good enough. So this is the paradox that a team like the Knicks are in right now, especially with Giannis. You know, we know that Giannis has some interest. I don't know if Giannis has a list. I don't know if there's a list, if, you know, if there's 1, 2, 3, 4 or whatever. But the Knicks are at what, you know, what the smart people say, an inflection point here. And they're going to, you know, it's not simple. It's not as simple as we either trade for him or not because they are in a heavy competition to acquire him. But, you know, the Knicks are sitting at a. At a crucial crossroads because, you know, it's very possible that they may not have another opportunity to trade for a player like this, and they may not have a group that is good enough to win these, much less the whole thing. And that's something that I think they're probably thinking pretty hard about, and I think actually probably been thinking hard about for a while, not just in the last, you know, 36 hours. The other team I want to ask about are the Cavs peloton. The Cavs have won seven their last eight. They are dealing with some injury issues as they've dealt with all year. Evan Mobley is now out, probably until after the All Star break or close to it. They're about to go on their longest trip of the year, a West coast swing without Darius Garland. We're not sure when he's back yet, and without Evan Mobley. So they could take some hits, but they have played pretty well over the last month. But they've underachieved on the season. And Donovan Mitchell is contract extension eligible this summer. He's got one year left on his contract, and he's not indicated anything that he wouldn't want to be there. However, this is one of those uncomfortable situations where you have to check in with your star player. So let me ask you this, because I don't think the Cav, I mean, the Cavs, I think, could try to get into the Giannis sweepstakes. They don't have the draft picks to do it, and if you're trading pieces, you're talking about breaking up your core. But do the Cavs have a team right now that's good enough as they look forward to.
- [28:36]
C
Yeah. And to take that last part first, perhaps the most challenging part of it is that Cleveland is in the situation we were talking about with Minnesota a year ago, where just even to be able to legally make a trade For Giannis, they have to get out of the second apron and they're. They're 22 million into it, so that's a lot of salary going elsewhere. I don't think they're good enough to feel confident in their chances to win the East. I think they're better than they have looked this season. You know, our BPI model is still relatively high on them. Gives them about an 80% chance of ending up with home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. And in their case, I do think, you know, sort of the shot quality data tells the story that they are going to, you know, improve a little bit over the rest of the season or that the bounce back we've seen lately was to a degree inevitable in terms of the shooting luck that they've had.
- [29:28]
A
By the way, I was trying to shell shot quality of my. You know, I do some Cleveland media every week and I was trying to. Two, three weeks ago, I was trying to sell the shot quality metric and they, the fans didn't want to hear it.
- [29:38]
C
I. They rarely do. Yeah, well, you know, it's. But unless it's like, well, we know this team is just getting unlucky and is better than everyone else thinks. You know, the outsiders, the national media doesn't know about this, but we do. That's maybe the sell point, but. Yeah, the genius iq, Chuck holding metric. They've had the fifth worst shooting luck on attempts outside the paint. And that's even though during this winning streak, opponents are shooting just 27% on threes.
- [30:02]
A
Yeah, it's actually swung back around this last eight games. The Cavs like number three in the league and three point percentage. It's, you know, they've. They're doing some things well. They're defending better, they're rebounding better. But the thing that's been. The difference is they've been making some threes after they didn't make them literally for weeks, months.
- [30:17]
C
But overall, they're fourth on offense this year, 13th on defense, and I don't think that's quite a good enough. You know, it's in the ballpark, but I don't think it's quite good enough to feel good about my chances to win the east, especially when last year when they didn't and, you know, we're partially due to injuries, exposed to a bit in the playoffs, were first in the regular season in shot quality on offense and seventh on defense.
- [30:38]
A
Yeah, Bobby, they can look you in the eye and say, well, our team hasn't been healthy and say, you know, we're going to get our team healthy and then we'll be good enough. And I can't dispute that other than the fact I can say, well, you've played 50 games, your team hasn't been healthy for any of them, so why do you think they're going to be? But if your team you don't think is good enough and it's in the second apron and Donovan Mitchells do a contract extension and your trade deadline is in seven days, what do you do?
- [31:01]
B
Yeah, I mean, I think there's, there's part of you that is, I think there's two ways to look at it. There's part of you that we're already committed to this group, right? Like we're going to see it through and then we're going to figure out if we have to move off money in the off season, we can, we can do that here. I think the other part is can you start getting your books in order right now? But that takes into effect, like, I mean, we've, we've seen Jaylon Tyson basically grow in front of our eyes here as far as a really a player that can help this team. And then a year ago you traded for DeAndre Hunter, right? So like. But that's still a 22, $23 million player that, you know, you're getting, you know, you're trying to, if you're trying to move, but you're also losing a piece maybe off your bench. So that's like if you're already committed to paying, you know, $165 million in a luxury tax this year and another 200 plus in salary, is it better off just kind of seeing it through and then getting to the off season here where it's not just Cleveland or, you know, is going to have a lot of uncomfortable decisions. There's, I mean, we'll get to the offseason. There's so many players who are extension eligible this off season here that could be free agents in 2027. And the list is besides, besides Mitchell and Cleveland, it's, there's a long list of players here. I, I, for one, I think, I don't know if you're ever going to be whole this year. Right. So meaning whole is, you know, not Mobley because he'll be back, but like the Streuss injury, right. Like we've been kind of waiting for him and it feels like every time we get an injury report, it's, it's like another four weeks or five weeks here. You've had Merrill out for a bit here you've had, you know, you've trying to solid your garland you mentioned here. Is it good enough to get where they are right now? I'm more encouraged, as you know, Kevin has talked about. I thought there was a sense of urgency with this group that they haven't hadn't shown before here. But for me, I think I'm looking I'm probably riding this group to the end and then I'm going to figure out in the off season here.
- [32:53]
C
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- [33:28]
A
Here are the 2027 potential free agents. How many of these guys actually get to free agency or opt out of their contracts? All right, I'll say Steph Curry, he's never playing anywhere besides Golden State, but he his contract will be up. Anthony Davis can opt out of 62 million. Will he do that? I would say unlikely unless he's resigning exactly where he's at, whether that's Dallas or somewhere else. Giannis I think it's likely he signs an extension wherever he gets traded. Jimmy Butler coming off an acl. Jokic. Now there's an interesting one. You know, the Nuggets probably, you know, the Nuggets are in the same situation as the Cavs are. Like they're going to have a, you know, they're going to have to go to Jokic this summer. Now. They probably feel a lot, they feel better about their team right now than the Cavs do. And also Jokic is, you know, won a championship and three MVPs there, but you know, yeah, he's on the list. Karl towns has a $60 million player option. Is he opting out of that? I would say unlikely unless he's to resign. Paul George again, player option for over 50 million? I don't think so. But you know, Donovan Mitchell, player option for 58 million or something like that. Probably opting out. Is it to resign in Cleveland or is it to go somewhere else? So that's, you know. Or do the Cavs feel some pressure? That's to be determined. Kawhi Leonard, Totally unrestricted. I don't even know what you want to say about that? Kevin Durant has a player option. Maybe. Upside of it, maybe he doesn't. James Harden will be a free agent. Rudy Gobert can opt out of 38 million. I would say unlikely. Michael Porter Jr Julius Randle has a player option. The way Julius Randle is playing right now, I think that's something that could be very interesting in a couple of years. And here's an interesting name. Jonathan Kaminga. Just kidding. But he can't. Here's an interesting name, Isaiah Hartenstein. He's got a team option next year for $29 million. So, Bobby, I've actually heard the Oklahoma City Thunder's name and some trade chatter. And you look at this team and you say, well, wait a minute, this team is, you know, 66 wins or whatever they had last year, champions, you know, when they've been healthy this year, they've been unstoppable. Why would the Oklahoma City Thunder's name be out there? And why would the Oklahoma City Thunder's name be out there, potentially looking at centers? Now, if Sam Presti was on this podcast, which that would be fascinating. Wouldn't. Would go on for three to seven hours.
- [35:47]
C
Are you giving him the true serum before the podcast?
- [35:49]
A
No, but, you know, in all honesty, like Sam, he can talk for hours and hours and hours about not even his team about. About stuff he does a couple times a year in front of the media. He would say, your information is wrong. We don't talk about rumors and speculation. So I'm talking about a rumor and speculation with Oklahoma City. Maybe they don't do anything, Bobby, but if the Thunder were out there armed with an enormous amount of draft capital and bunch of young players, what would they be looking to do?
- [36:14]
B
Yeah, they're in a. And our big trade guy, they're in the don't call us, we'll call you column.
- [36:19]
A
Okay. Yeah, I'm sure that's. I'm sure that's probably true. Them.
- [36:23]
B
And there's a San Antonio's in there with them, too. Right? So it's. Listen, I think we all know how. What they have in picks, eventually they're going to have a decision this offseason with Dort and Hartenstein, who have team options along with, I think, Kenrick Williams. Also, they have been besieged with injuries. I mean, like, they have been hit hard with this group here and, you know, as a result, have struggled a bit, you know, losing a couple of games.
- [36:50]
A
I think they're missing six. I don't know where they are exactly for this moment. But earlier this week, I think they were missing six rotation players. Yes.
- [36:58]
B
So. So I think you kind of take that into equation. I. I do think, listen, I went back and when they made that Gordon Hayward trade and, you know, Sam gave a, you know, lengthy response about in season trades.
- [37:10]
A
Right.
- [37:10]
B
As far as the, you know, kind of the challenges, as far as the built to go out and do that and everything, I think if you're. If you're Oklahoma City and you're kind of look, you're.
- [37:18]
A
Yeah, he pretty much said, I don't think we would do that again. That's pretty much what he said. Right.
- [37:21]
B
But I do think you have. I think you do have an obligation. If they were, I don't even know, 50 and five right now, you know, like. Yeah, like, like Golden State was humming those years. Like, you're probably not look, at least looking, you know, as far as where they are with their roster. And I know injuries play a role, but I do think you have to look at what. Is there something out there that can only, not only help us this year, but also help us in the future here? And as you mentioned, whether it be, you know, center, whether it be another wing on this, on this group here, I think you have. I do think you have the obligation to do that.
- [37:55]
C
The centerpiece of it is interesting because, you know, you guys highlighted on the pod after the most recent game against San Antonio, what a big difference. Just having big Jalen Williams made for them in that game is, you know, big Jalen Williams.
- [38:08]
A
I like it.
- [38:09]
C
Yeah.
- [38:09]
A
You know, he's not that much bigger than. Than little Jalen Williams.
- [38:13]
C
I think he's J. Well, but I can't. If I can't get that straight. Well, I assume the listener can.
- [38:18]
A
Again, I don't think big Jalen Williams is bigger that much bigger. He is bigger, but not that much. But the way. The way I always thought about it is J Will is the two L's. So he's. That's tall. So J Will is the big and J Dub is the wing. That's how I always. Now I just know it. But, you know, when I was learning.
- [38:36]
C
It, he made a difference just in terms of having some size to throw at Giannis and did to kind of lean it or Giannis Wimby to. And to lean on him a little bit.
- [38:44]
A
Well, maybe they might need it for Giannis too. Who knows?
- [38:47]
C
Yes, that is. That is plausibly the case. So I. I can see where that might be a consideration. And to your point, if it's somebody who can get on sort of a controlled contract. You know, Hartenstein, they. They sort of paid rather handsomely the first two years, knowing that they weren't going to have luxury tax issues in order to get that team option on the third year and maintain the flexibility. So if you're thinking we need to decline that team option, but we still want someone in that role, maybe it could make sense. But it's interesting because, you know, when they made that trade for Hayward a couple of years ago at the deadline, it actually, like it didn't work out for them at the time. It's sneaky. Just worked out as a salary dump. That was part of the reason that a lot. They created the cloud space that allowed them to then sign Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency. So. But this year there's not kind of that same option in terms of, you know, if you look at guys who are on the roster roster who they don't consider part of their future, I think Usman Jang would be the only guy that you sort of really look at in that vein. And he's only making, you know, 6.7 million. They're close to the luxury tax. There's a pretty limited band. Unless they're willing to trade, you know, Kenridge Williams, who's been a valuable veteran for them, or one of their other.
- [40:04]
A
Youngsters, their oldest player. It's either him or Caruso or their oldest player, I think.
- [40:08]
C
Right.
- [40:08]
A
Yeah. Well, there's a reason why they used a first round pick on a center last year because they knew that this was going to be a challenge and that they knew that they had to develop that. And, and, you know, I mean, I'm sure that they will be. You know, I think the one thing about, you know, the Thunder is they have Thomas Sorber is who they drafted with the 15th pick last year, which can't remember whose pick that was. Was that the Clippers pick? Unfortunately, he. He tore his ace acl. I think he tore his acl.
- [40:42]
B
That might have been that Heat.
- [40:43]
C
Miami. Yeah.
- [40:44]
A
Oh, the Heat pick. Okay. Right. All right. Yeah, there's, you know, there's a reason why they drafted a big man there because they know that they, you know, they need to sort of potentially restock there. So.
- [40:53]
B
But it is. But interesting Brian, though, because you look back, you look at how this roster is constructed, there's only been two players on his team they've traded for, you know, like, as far as, like, you know, I know Shea of sports, which is Caruso and then Kenner. Kenrick Williams was a wow Mine and trade also here. So I don't remember that.
- [41:11]
C
It's.
- [41:12]
B
It's not in the DNA. Right. As far as how they've been able to do it.
- [41:15]
A
Yeah, yeah. I mean, you know, like they're. Thunder are always doing something and there's always a methodology to it and a lot of times I can't always figure it out, but I always, but I do always respect it, so. And you know, they could be misdirecting. They could be setting up something for later in the summer. They could be just evaluating the value of their players, which, you know, is always important. But. Yeah. So, you know, the Thunder have sort of just been installed as the favorites, but you know, there have been some, some concerns over this last few weeks because, you know, mostly because of injuries, but they haven't quite been at the top of their game for quite some time now. So I assure you the Thunder will not just assume everything will be fine. I'm sure they believe that and I'm sure that they're, you know, that they will work towards it. And you know, I would still, you know, plan on them being the favorites come the playoffs, but I promise you that Sam Presti and his group is investigating all angles because that is how they got to themselves to this position, investigating all angles. And the one thing that they, that they like to do is they like to open up a lot of options and maybe they'll say no to all of them, maybe they'll take one and say no to the rest. But I just think it's interesting. I just hadn't heard them out there very much really, in a long time. And you know, like that Caruso trade was the last trade they did, right? Bobby, The Caruso trade kind of came out of nowhere. I didn't know that was coming. You know, most of the time we may not know all the details, but most trades for us, right, Bobby, don't come totally out of the blue. Luca. Luca did. Luca did well. Luca is the ultimate outlier. That Crusoe trade to me came out of the blue. I don't know if it did.
- [43:09]
B
It was a week before the draft. I think it was late, late mid June.
- [43:13]
C
Yeah.
- [43:14]
A
One other thing I'll say is you remember a year ago the Suns did something that was revolutionary and unusual and I really was not a fan of it. But the Suns have had a pretty good few months was they had a future, a law, a far out future first round pick that they traded and turned it into three firsts. They broke one unprotected future Far off future pick into three firsts so that they could do some more business, which they did with the Utah Jazz. There are a few teams who have limited draft assets that I think are sniffing around doing the same thing. And you know, there's what, there's like five or six teams that are, that have like some incredible number of the picks.
- [43:55]
B
There are seven teams that control 50% of the tradable picks in the next seven years.
- [44:01]
A
Right. So those seven teams, they don't want all those picks, right? I mean they, you know, you go year by year, but like, you know, some of these teams can't draft all these players. So, you know, I guess one of the, you know, Oklahoma City was one of the first teams to do this, although it happened on draft night where they traded three firsts to get a lottery pick for the Knicks. It was three of their least valuable firsts to get a lottery pick, which they used on Usman Jang, who hasn't panned out as a player, but they also made sure nobody else traded for it, which was right next to their pick, which they used on Jalen Williams. Just another story for another day. But you know, these are, these are also deals that I think you could see Oklahoma City or Utah or Charlotte or Brooklyn involved in. Bobby?
- [44:46]
B
Yeah, it's as one team explained to me, it's basically getting an interest free loan, right. But having to pay high interest in like years four and five because you're basically, you're getting something, I guess somewhat free, but giving up something of significant value here. You mentioned the Phoenix pick that is now in the hands of the Utah Jazz, which is now unprotected in I think 2031. But if you're, if you're the teams that have one pick, which includes the Milwaukee Bucks, I don't know if that's the direction you would want to go with or the Lakers potentially are one of those teams, Cleveland's another one. Does it make sense as far as to go out and try to get three picks of lesser value of one that is, that is unprotected.
- [45:31]
C
And I think the other version of that, that, you know, when we go back to the Miami conversation at the beginning about how do they get the 27 pick to unlock two first rounds to trade? You know, we've seen another thing that Oklahoma City in particular has done, you know, is we'll trade you one of our first round picks for a swap in a situation where, you know, we think it's very likely to, you know, that swap is going to get us Far up in the draft. So even though we're actually down a first round pick net, it's still better in terms of the upside for us. So I think that's something to watch it, you know, with Miami potentially.
- [46:09]
A
The crazy thing about the Thunders whole draft process is their shot metric, I guess you could say for their draft picks getting lucky has been low. They've had several very near misses on acquiring high picks with all these picks that they've had. Now the one thing that they did get was their pick one year when it was Chet Holmgren went up to number two and that was obviously very big. But they had a very near miss on getting like a top 10 swap with Houston. Houston got the pick I think the one that became Jalen Green. Jalen Green, Yeah.
- [46:45]
C
I think that was top four protected, wasn't it?
- [46:47]
A
Yeah. Had they not jumped up they would have. Oklahoma City would have gotten it last year by the skin of their teeth. The Philadelphia 76ers got that third pick and they really been the skin of their teeth because two other teams from behind them left them and would have pushed them back and the pick would have fallen in the hands of the Thunder. This year the Jazz are in an all out tankathon to, to avoid giving that pick. I mean who knows how the lottery might fall but that's a pick that under different circumstances the Thunder could have gotten and maybe been in the lottery. So at some point they'll hit a shot, right? Pelton? Like at some point they're going to get, you know, the Clippers pick. You know we got off to a, got off to a terrible start this year and I was like oh my God, they might. And then now the Clippers have rebounded but like at some point all these ores they have or all these, you know, irons they have in the fire, you know, like let's like let's say the Clippers miss the playoffs this year. Okay. Let's say they get into the play and then they miss the playoffs and you know, they've got like the 13th odds. What if, you know, like it's at some point I don't. Don't you feel like you think I'm wrong? Like at some point I feel like it's going to come around. The Thunder have karma. It actually hasn't gone that way.
- [47:55]
C
I mean haven't they got enough already? But.
- [47:58]
A
Well I mean in this regard, no, I'm saying their attempts to score big have under. And by the way they would say to you, and I know that because, you know, they've said this to me like they would rather have a really, really good chance of having gotten like a seventh or eighth pick as opposed to having the 23rd pick.
- [48:16]
C
That's precisely what. Trading a swap, a first round pick outright for a swap. That's exactly what you're doing. You're. You're knowing that the expected outcome is probably worse. But that's fine because, you know, they have ample, you know, picks in the 20s. It's all about chasing that sort of upside for them. Is it as it should be? And is, you know, the. They've really mastered it.
- [48:36]
A
They can have four this year, but might only end up with two. Is that.
- [48:40]
B
I think three, Right.
- [48:41]
A
I think they'll have.
- [48:42]
B
They have one. Their own is going to. It's the. The least one is going to. I think the Wizards, right, have theirs.
- [48:49]
A
There was a swap.
- [48:50]
B
And then they have Phillies, right. Philly, they have the Clips and I think Houston is the other one. I think they have three out of.
- [48:56]
A
They have Utah.
- [48:57]
B
Oh, well, Utah potentially too.
- [48:59]
A
Yeah.
- [48:59]
B
I mean.
- [49:00]
A
Yes. Yeah. Yeah.
- [49:01]
C
And Philly, like, you know, there's about 80% to make the playoffs on BP in BPI right now. Like, that's not a sure thing either.
- [49:09]
A
Yeah. I hope Philly stays healthy. They are looking good right now, so. All right, well, you guys made me smarter today. Thank you very much for doing so. We appreciate it. Thank you to Mark, Devon and Jackson for putting it together. Thank you to Bobby and KP Bobby, one more time on your website for.
- [49:24]
B
The Sports Business Classroom, sportsbusinessclassroom.com and we actually have a lot of free information on there. I've been tracking transactions for the last year and we apply how the CBA applies to it so you can learn how all that fun mechanisms work.
- [49:41]
A
I could see people just doing it for. Just doing it for a vacation. Just going to LA and talking basketball for a week in the middle of the winter.
- [49:49]
B
Rising Stars, you get to do all these fun things.
- [49:52]
A
Oh, okay. Yeah, you can go see Shams play.
- [49:56]
B
That's right. Celebrity.
- [49:57]
A
How do we feel about Shams decision to play in the Rising Stars? You know, I have not spoken about.
- [50:02]
B
The injuries are going these days and stuff like that. I don't want to, you know, jinx anyone here, but I did see his. His montage of his little scouting clips on TV yesterday. So he did. Yeah. So, you know, we'll see. We'll see. He's on Team Mookie Bets, I believe. I think that's what he's on I'm.
- [50:22]
C
Just glad that the game is after the trade deadline so he won't have to have his cell phone, multiple cell phones in hand during. While he's out there on the court.
- [50:30]
B
Remember when the trade deadline used to be after the All Star?
- [50:33]
C
When DeMarcus Cousins got traded, literally at the end of the All Star game? That was a night.
- [50:37]
B
I think that was the last time it was.
- [50:39]
A
Well, the thing. I can't remember who. Who the PR person was, but he was in the middle of an interview, right? And it, like, had been tweeted out. I don't know if it was Woj or Shams or whomever, but it had been tweeted out. And now everybody around him, like, knew he had been traded. And so, like, the PR guy was like, you just. You just got traded in New Orleans. Like, isn't. Am I remembering correctly? Isn't that how it happened?
- [51:02]
C
That sounds right. I know I was working on the trade grades already at that point. That was the night where the next day, there was a pod in Bond Temps because he had stayed up so late working on that. Fell asleep during the middle of the podcast.
- [51:16]
A
Is that right? Yeah. Oh, my God. Oh, that was back before we were on video. That's. Oh, God. My God. You are so right, Pelton. We were. Before we were on video, we were just on the phone, and, like, we. Tim hadn't talked in a while, which was very strange. And we were like, Tim. He wasn't, like, snoring or anything. He was just like, Tim. He was just. He just fell asleep. Well, that would be McMahon's dream now if he just fell asleep.
- [51:38]
C
Exactly.
- [51:38]
A
But, you know, last summer, you know, people say that Durant got traded when he was on stage at the Fanatics Conference in New York, but Durant knew well before that, that had gone public that he was being traded to Houston. But it was a cool kind of interesting moment where he was reacting in real time. He probably didn't know it. Maybe it had been finalized or whatever. But I think the DeMarcus one, I think he didn't really know, or maybe he knew a little bit, but didn't know how close it was. All right, thank you, Bobby. Thank you, Pelton. We'll see you soon, and we'll get through the next week as a group.