Summary: Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective (Sep 2, 2025)

Episode: "Flagg To Play Point Guard? Rockets Ready For Finals? Southwest Division Deep Dive"

Overview

This episode takes a comprehensive look at the NBA's Southwest Division, evaluating roster moves, off-season strategies, and early forecasts for the 2025-26 season. Brian Windhorst, Tim Bontemps, and Tim MacMahon ("the crew") dive into the division's biggest questions: Is Cooper Flagg about to run point for the Mavericks as a rookie? Are the Houston Rockets truly title-ready after a massive offseason? How will the Spurs, Grizzlies, and Pelicans shape their present—and their future? The discussion is dynamic and rich, including analysis of roster construction, contract extensions, trade implications, and division depth.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Milwaukee Bucks: Thanasis Antetokounmpo Re-signing [05:01]

• Thanasis' return to the Bucks is primarily seen as solidifying Giannis' contentment.
• McMahon: "If it makes Giannis 1% happier during the season, it's probably more than 1% since we know how close he is. I have 0% problem with it." [06:13]
• The crew agrees that using a roster spot to keep a superstar happy is a standard practice in the NBA.

2. Southwest Division Deep Dive [08:32]

a. Dallas Mavericks

• Projection: ESPN predicts them as a play-in team with a record of 44-38.
• Biggest Unknown: When will Kyrie Irving return, and in what form?
  • MacMahon: "The Mavericks are very difficult to predict for a variety of reasons. The primary one is because we don’t know when Kyrie’s coming back. Although he's ahead of schedule..." [12:31]
  • Anthony Davis’ (AD) durability and the team's heavy, frontcourt-oriented roster also raise questions.
• Flagg at Point Guard?
  • With only D’Angelo Russell as a true ballhandler, Flagg may be asked to initiate offense.
  • Bontemps: "[If Russell is out] they’re probably going to have the ball in Cooper Flagg’s hands a lot which will be great for his long-term development. It probably won’t be great for ... short-term winning..." [14:27]
• Starting Lineup Puzzle
  • Will Klay Thompson come off the bench?
  • Flagg starting at point guard would be a story, but removing Klay from the starting five could be even bigger.
  • "If Klay's coming off the bench, that's going to be a story," (MacMahon, [22:52])
  • Bontemps: "Are we sure they’re not going to start...Cooper Flagg at point guard? ... It might be easier to start him at point guard than it would be to have Klay Thompson come off the bench." [23:12]
• Roster & Extension Notes
  • Kyrie Irving (3 years/$119M), Daniel Gafford (3 years/$54M), and PJ Washington (eligible for 4/$89M extension).
  • Gafford's extension keeps him trade eligible. "He’s a quality, starting caliber center, whether he’s starting for the Mavericks or not." (MacMahon, [20:33])
• Forecast: Mavericks are talented and big, but their odd roster construction and injury issues make both their floor and ceiling difficult to gauge.

b. Houston Rockets

• Projection: 54-28, 2nd in West.
• Major Moves:
  • Acquired Kevin Durant (trading Jalen Green & Dillon Brooks), signed Dorian Finney-Smith, extended Jabari Smith Jr., re-signed Fred VanVleet, loaded up on big men (Steven Adams, Clint Capela).
  • "Houston really leaning into this multi-big lineup," (Bontemps, [29:26])
• Double-Big Identity
  • Adams + Capela = rebounding and defense stalwarts.
  • "Last year the Rockets were a really bad shooting team but it didn’t matter when they had those guys out." (MacMahon, [32:15])
  • With KD and more shooting, offense should be more dynamic.
• Alperen Sengun Watch
  • Dominant EuroBasket stats: 20p/9r/7a on 68% shooting.
• Contract Management
  • Rockets praised for “doing a very good job with their contracts.”
  • Reed Sheppard’s role expected to grow.
• KD’s Future
  • No extension—"Just point that out. All right." (Windhorst, [33:09])
• Outlook: Rockets are loaded, big, and versatile with championship aspirations.

c. San Antonio Spurs

• Projection: 44 wins (tied with Mavs, forecast under by Bontemps).
• Key Developments:
  • Drafted Dylan Harper 2nd overall; signed De’Aaron Fox to franchise-record contract; Popovich retired, Mitch Johnson promoted.
  • Notably: "It also helped that [Johnson] has a very good relationship with Victor [Wembanyama]." (Windhorst, [36:34])
• Rotation Questions
  • How will the three point guards (Fox, Harper, Stefan Castle [last year’s Rookie of the Year]) share minutes?
  • Vassell, the “two,” complicates wing lineup.
  • Acquired Luke Kornet for big depth.
  • Bontemps: “It's going to be fascinating to see how Mitch Johnson handles that and how they play together and what that looks like this year ... they’ve got young guys, they’ve got to figure it out.” [39:47]
• Frontcourt "Thinness"
  • Awkward fits across roster; more backcourt depth than forward/center.
• Flexibility
  • Significant expiring contracts + picks could allow for mid-season trades.
  • “They are in position if they want...to reformat this roster in like a two or three for one trade with some draft picks.” [42:04]
• Mandate: Transition from mere rebuilding to being competitive, “zooming out of the rebuild.” — MacMahon, [44:16]
• Wemby Factor
  • With him: elite defense (would rank #4); without: near last.

d. Memphis Grizzlies

• Projection: 42-40, 10th in West.
• Coaching Revolution
  • Thomas Isalo’s offensive sets, revered across coaching circles, now get a full offseason to be implemented.
• Roster Reset
  • Desmond Bane traded for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP) and picks; “reset,” not a “downgrade.”
  • Jaren Jackson Jr. extended (5/$240M); suffered turf toe, may miss opener.
  • Santi Aldama (3/$52M extension); Ty Jerome signed as 6th man.
• Rookie pipeline:
  • Jalen Wells (2nd round, now starting), Zach Edey (lottery pick, recovering from ankle surgery), Cedric Coward (new draftee expected to play), progression expected.
• John Morant: Franchise’s Pivot Point
  • “None of that is even evaluating how many games Ja Morant’s going to play…If they’re going to go back to being a top four team...it was when Ja Morant was an all-NBA player.” (Windhorst, [54:22])
• Team’s Outlook: Ja’s return to form is crucial; team is trying to build around Jaren Jackson for the long-term, took a "wait and see" with Ja’s extension. KCP’s bounceback is a wild card.

e. New Orleans Pelicans

• Projection: 26-56, bottom five team, pick likely conveys to Atlanta from the recent derick Queen draft-night trade.
• Front Office Shift
  • Joe Dumars hired, Troy Weaver brought aboard — team promptly swings deals for DMV favorites Derick Queen (draft, via trade) and Jordan Poole (+ Sadiq Bey, another Weaver draftee).
• Health & Uncertainty
  • Dejounte Murray: Achilles rehab; Zion Williamson: recurring injuries, partially-guaranteed contract.
  • "Zion...has no value right now, so. Well, it seems he has relatively no value." (Windhorst, [62:09])
  • Trey Murphy, Herb Jones returning from labrum surgery; Queen and Fears, rookie guards, expected to play big minutes.
• Rebuild Stuck in Neutral
  • Bontemps: "If you're playing a rookie guard a lot of minutes, probably going to be really rough." [62:52]
  • MacMahon: "The Pelicans are going to be the worst thing you can be in the NBA and that's a bad team that doesn't benefit from being bad." [64:41]
• Big Man Signings
  • Joined division trend by scooping up Kevon Looney for backup center depth.
• Draft Pick Fallout
  • Their poor record this year hugely benefits Atlanta in the 2026 draft.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If it makes Giannis 1% happier during the season...I have 0% problem with it.” — Windhorst on Thanasis Antetokounmpo re-signing with the Bucks [06:13]
• “What do you get with D’Angelo Russell?” — Bontemps on Dallas’ lack of ball handlers [14:26]
• “If Klay’s coming off the bench, that's going to be a story.” — MacMahon [22:52]
• “Houston really leaning into this multi-big lineup.” — Bontemps [29:26]
• “Last year the Rockets were a really bad shooting team but it didn’t matter when they had those guys out.” — MacMahon [32:15]
• ‘The Pelicans are going to be the worst thing you can be in the NBA and that's a bad team that doesn't benefit from being bad.’ — MacMahon [64:41]
• “Rebuilds are hard. Rebuilds always sound good. When’s the best time to start a rebuild? A year ago.” — Windhorst [67:43]

Division Outlook & Closing Thoughts

• Big Picture: The Southwest is a study in tiers and trajectories. Houston is locked in as a true contender. Dallas is fascinating but deeply volatile. San Antonio is loaded with high-potential pieces—though awkwardly matched—and on the cusp of competitiveness. Memphis’ fate rides on Ja Morant’s form and Jaren Jackson’s health. New Orleans is rebuilding on a treadmill: loaded with injury risk, youth, and without its own pick.
• The episode highlights the changing nature of team-building: extensions, expiring contracts, who controls which picks, and the pitfalls of being bad without a pick.
• Lots of uncertainty but also a glimpse at future stars (Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Jeremiah Fears).

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [05:01] — Thanasis Antetokounmpo re-signing, Bucks/Giannis context
• [12:31] — Dallas Mavericks roster, projection, Flagg’s role, starting lineup debate
• [18:17] — Roster/extension analysis (Kyrie, Gafford, PJ Washington)
• [28:29] — Houston Rockets offseason overhaul, double-big philosophy
• [31:02] — Sengun and EuroBasket, Adams/Capela impact
• [34:43] — San Antonio Spurs: coaching change, Dylan Harper, Fox signing
• [42:04] — Spurs’ expiring contracts and flexibility
• [46:43] — Memphis Grizzlies: Isalo offense, roster “reset,” Morant’s importance
• [54:22] — Morant as the franchise’s pivot point
• [58:27] — New Orleans Pelicans: front office changes, Derick Queen, Zion situation
• [64:41] — State of the Pelicans, draft pick ramifications

This episode is rich in insider analysis, scouting notes, and strategic big-picture thinking for anyone following the Western Conference—and especially the Southwest’s most intriguing storylines in 2025-26.