← Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
Future NBA Stars Who Will Bust Your Brackets This March
00:54:39
Hoop Collective: Future NBA Stars Who Will Bust Your Brackets This March
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- [00:01]
Wendy
Today at T Mobile I'm joined by.
- [00:02]
Kevin Pelton
A special co anchor.
- [00:04]
Jonathan Gavoni
What up everybody?
- [00:04]
Wendy
It's your boy, big Snoop.
- [00:05]
Jonathan Gavoni
D O Double G Snoop.
- [00:07]
Wendy
Where can people go to find great deals? Head to T mobile.com and get four iPhone 16s with Apple Intelligence on us.
- [00:13]
Jonathan Gavoni
Plus four lines for 25 bucks.
- [00:15]
Wendy
That's quite a deal, Snoop.
- [00:17]
Kevin Pelton
And when you switch to T Mobile you can save versus the other big guys. Comparable plans plus streaming.
- [00:22]
Jonathan Gavoni
Respect.
- [00:23]
Wendy
When we up out of here, see.
- [00:25]
Kevin Pelton
How you can save on wireless and streaming versus the other big guys. @t mobile.com/apple intelligence requires iOS 18.1 or later.
- [00:30]
Wendy
Foreign.
- [00:36]
Jonathan Gavoni
Welcome to the Hoop Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA, except for that's not we're actually going to do this week because it's the NCAA tournament and we're going to talk about the NCAA prospects who are soon to be NBA players. Joining us is the dean of college basketball, amateur scouting, our guy at espn. And also we one of the most fascinating of all my coworkers over the decades from New York City, Jonathan Gavoni.
- [01:05]
Wendy
What's up Wendy?
- [01:06]
Jonathan Gavoni
What's up? We're getting into nitty gritty time for you for the next three, four months. So I hope you're ready. I know you are. Joining us from Seattle where the computer is on the machine, Kevin Pelton.
- [01:18]
Kevin Pelton
We got multiple computers running today because I have to use my old one for the video. So there you go.
- [01:23]
Jonathan Gavoni
How is UW's postseason situation?
- [01:27]
Kevin Pelton
Well, the UW women made the NCAA tournament. They're in the first four and it's the first time either the men or the women have made it since 2019. So it's been a long time since we've actually had something to follow on Selection Sunday. Long, long overdue.
- [01:39]
Jonathan Gavoni
Okay, so Gavoni has been tracking some of these prospects since they were 12. Pelton has been tracking them very closely statistically for the last couple of years. Two things we're going to talk about here, we may mention some guys who are not in the tournament, but I want to focus mostly on the guys who are going to be playing this week and next week and the week after. You know, if you're thinking about who your team might draft or you're interested in, in who to keep an eye on. Secondly, you guys have to talk to me like I'm a five year old child here. I do not watch almost any college basketball. I have watched some of Cooper flag the rest of these, you know, and I mean I've seen some of these guys play and when they've played international competition like, come on, Malyuk from Duke. But I last saw him play last summer in the Olympics. I really haven't watched it much this year, so you guys have to treat me like I know nothing. Which Bond, Thompson, McMahon prefer to do anyway. That's the other thing. And so Jonathan, ESPN has a ranking. You did a mock draft last week that you or you updated it. So if you want to look back to see that, to see where you think certain teams are going to go with certain prospects, you can do that. But you've got some updated stuff this week. Specifically you're looking at the, the top players that are in the NCAA tournament. And I guess we should start with the guy who's number one on all the lists. The guy you've had number one for a long time. That's Cooper Flag at Duke.
- [03:07]
Wendy
Yeah, I mean he came in with incredibly high expectations and I honestly thought like, there's no way he's going to meet them just because the hype was out of control. Honestly, like for, for several years now too. And I always thought he was a phenomenal player, but I was like, man, 17 years old going into, you know, the oldest college basketball that we've seen in a long time. And he smashed right through those and, you know, exceeded them by any measure, was the best player in college basketball this year. Duke is ranked number one, you know, has gotten better and better throughout the year. They played a really challenging non conference schedule and they put the ball in his hands away and they said, you're a guy, Cooper, so you go to work. And there were some growing pains early on that first month of the year. I mean, they played against Auburn, Arizona, Kansas. I mean they had a really, really challenging schedule. And he just got better and better and better as the year moved on. His shooting, you know, has been on another level for the last two months now. And that was, that was one of the big questions about him. And then his bow handling has really, really improved as well. You know, everybody always thought he's, you know, an incredible defender, he's an incredible glue guy, he does a little bit of everything. He's a great passer, he impacts winning in so many different ways. All that is true, but he really carried Duke at the same time. You know, 30 plus percent usage rate, you know, turned 18 December 21st and you know, like they lost one game in the SEC. So there's really nothing, you know, to nitpick about Cooper Flag at this point. You know, he's easily, you know, the, the number One pick. There's no question about it anymore. Really. The question the NBA teams are asking, they say, you know, where do we put him in terms of number one picks of the past? How do you rank him compared with a victor? When Benyama And Anthony Davis, LeBron James, you know, those type of guys. And I think it's a, it's a great question, really. I mean, I don't think that he's, you know, maybe an MVP caliber guy like, like Victor Wimbanyama, but you can't put a ceiling on him. Just the way that he's improved, how young he is, you know, the many different ways that, you know, that he impacts winning. So, you know, really, really high level prospect and, you know, I think we're all, we all kind of are breathing a sigh of relief here because, you know, first round of the acc, the quarterfinals, he goes down with what looked like a really nasty ankle injury. You know, I mean, I looked at it right away, I said, that's a high ankle sprain. That might be four to six weeks. That might be the NCAA tournament for Cooper Flag. And thankfully it turned out to be very minor. It looks like he might even play on Friday here.
- [05:45]
Jonathan Gavoni
Oh, wow.
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Wendy
In their opening run. And if he, that one, he's almost certainly going to be back for Sunday, provided they, you know, they, they beat that one, that, that 16 seed. So I mean, I think a lot, a lot was riding on that as far as, you know, ratings and attention and all that. And I mean, it would have been a shame obviously for Duke season to, you know, to, to end that way. But, you know, the rest of their team, pretty good too, won the ACC tournament without Cooper flag. They have two other guys rejected as top 10 picks in Kaman Malawat, you just mentioned, and Khan Canuple, who won MVP of the tournament and carried a big load with Cooper Flag out. I think that's huge for, for Duke's outlook here in the NCAA tournament. They have a lot of different pieces, a lot of different guys. You know, it's not just the Cooper Flag show. So I mean, I think this is what, you know, the college basketball executives and everybody was hoping for that, you know, you have a guy who's the star, you know, the face of college basketball at this point, playing for the best team and let's see how far they can go. This is going to be really fun to watch.
- [06:48]
Jonathan Gavoni
Pelton at the beginning of the season, say the beginning, maybe last summer. You know, I had a couple of scouts who I trusted say, look, Cooper Flag is awesome. He definitely is at the top of our board. But I'm not, I'm not saying it's a slam dunk. Like, you know, they were praising these other guys, you know, you know, the guys that, that Jonathan and Jeremy Wu have two and three. Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper two, Ace Bailey three. And this mock clay Smock didn't make the tournament. So, you know, I don't know what that says for them, but I had got, you know, guys tell me, guys I respect, guys who are doing it for 20 plus years say, yeah, I like Cooper Flag a lot, but I'm not, you know, writing it in that he's for sure the number one pick. I want to see how this season goes and as Jonathan said, that's changed. How have you seen from your perspective how it's played out for him?
- [07:31]
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, I think as Jonathan mentioned, one of the things that really struck me last weekend, we were both at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston and you know, I had a pretty high impression of Cooper and Cooper Flag based on my projections, which we'll talk about in a second, and watching him play. And then I started talking to, you know, NBA people, primarily analytics people, and I was a little blown away that they're talking about him. Is one of the top handful of number one picks, you know, in the last couple of decades. Here is a basically a generational type of prospect and that I think does play out statistically to a degree. If you look among number one picks. This is something that Tim Bontemps and I are going to write about more later this week and specifically the way that it's affecting how teams are playing out the last month and a half of this season as they try to get in position to get the number one pick. But you know, among number one picks in my projections right now, it's, and this goes back to 2005, that's, that's the data I have. Anthony Davis is number one, Zion Williamson number two, and then Cooper slots in right now at number three. And you know, one of the things that Jonathan highlighted, this guy doesn't really have any weaknesses. One of the categories I use in my projections is areas where players are in the bottom quarter among prospects at their position at the time they're entering the NBA. And Cooper is the only player in this year's draft who is not in the bottom 25% of any of those skill based categories I use. So this is someone who's come in very complete and has shown, I think, more upside in terms of his shot creation. As Jonathan was talking about during this freshman season. And I'm kind of amazed. Like the hype coming into the year was rather big. The hype at last year's Hoop Summit was big. I'm kind of amazed that Cooper is doing this. He's possibly the national player of the year on the number one team in the country. And there hasn't been more hype during the season. But I think we will start to see if they make a long tournament.
- [09:17]
Jonathan Gavoni
Run, which there was certainly for Zion, you know.
- [09:19]
Wendy
Yeah, he doesn't move the needle like from a media standpoint the way that you would think in terms of the ratings and all that, you know, like, I'm surprised that like that America hasn't like gravitated to Cooper flag anywhere near the way that they did Zion Williamson a few years ago. You know, Zion, I mean it was like double and triple like the ratings that they got. And. And so I think people are missing the boat a little bit here.
- [09:43]
Jonathan Gavoni
Interesting. So Pelton, before we move beyond Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, their Rutgers went 17 and 15. I don't think they're playing any postseason tournaments. I think they turned them down just real quick because we'll talk about them a lot when we get into May and June. How did you feel they performed? How did your model feel they performed this year?
- [10:00]
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, I think people are very surprised at this idea and it is going to be historic if there's two top five picks who don't make the NCAA tournament. I think I saw Matt Laurlender at CBS Sports do that research, but surely others as well. And I have a perspective on this because I happened to see the number one pick in the draft, Markelle Fultz, during his season at UW where they went 2:16 in conference play. And. And Lorenzo Romar got fired after the season in part because Fultz, you know, sat out, was dealing with some injuries late in the year. But it really was kind of revealing in terms of, you know, number one, even the best freshmen, with the possible exception of Cooper, typically are not as good as the best upperclassmen. So, you know, that season Markell Fultz was replacing Andrew Andrews, who's a name that Jonathan knows, I'm sure, but I don't know how many of listeners remember who's.
- [10:45]
Jonathan Gavoni
I don't know who he is.
- [10:46]
Kevin Pelton
Just a European veteran at this point, has never really sniffed the NBA but he was like as productive as a fifth year senior. His fault was is a freshman. So it's like very challenging to build your team. Around these types of players, especially if you don't have much depth. And this Rutgers team did not have really almost any other shot creation except for those two guys. They really missed. Cliff. Oh, Marui had no shooting, they had.
- [11:07]
Wendy
No bigs, they had nothing, honestly. You know, so I mean, I, I live 45 minutes away from Rutgers, so I went to a dozen games this year. I never once walked away from there saying, you know, I'm really disappointed in the way that those guys look and I'm really questioning their outlook as prospects. Sorry to cut you off, but like, I don't, you know, I. In this era of college basketball, you have to surround your players with high major caliber players. You can't just go grab any old mid major, low major guy just because he was born in the state of New Jersey. And that's where I think Rutgers really failed these guys is that every time that Dylan Harper was, you know, playing pick and roll, he had two guys collapsing on him and a third guy, you know, cheating off the corner, ready to dig down. So it's like he. There was nowhere for him to go. So there were moments where he was overpassing and then there were moments where he was running into brick walls. And neither of them look great, but he still had an incredible season. And same thing with Ace Bailey, you know, like a lot more up and down than Dylan Harper from an efficiency standpoint. But, you know, people are knocking the assist numbers and all that, and I totally agree with that. But if you actually watch the games, Ace Bailey was making four or five great passes every single game that didn't, you know, turn into anything because there's just zero shooting on this team. And so it just, you know, like KP is saying, it's just so hard to build a roster like that where it's like, you know, basketball is a team sport. There are, you know, five guys, there are 10 guys in the court at all times. If, if three of them can't play, then it just makes things so much harder for the other two.
- [12:33]
Jonathan Gavoni
That reminds me of our former colleague, Amin Alhassan. He was in the Sun's front office when, when Steph Curry was coming up and they were obviously heavily scouting him. They wanted him really bad and they were charting every one of his games. And there was a player on Davidson's team. I don't remember his name and I'm not going to embarrass him. Let's just say his name was Joe Jones and he just maybe just didn't always finish on Steph. Passes So like they would, there would be like a statistical report, you know, like okay, last night Steph played Wofford. He was, you know, eight of 15, you know, six of nine on threes, he had seven assists and there were four Joneses, you know, which was an indication that he threw a pass and if it was not to Mr. Jones would have resulted in assist. But they actually tracked it this way. So I'm wondering how some NBA teams might attract Rutgers this year.
- [13:20]
Kevin Pelton
More Hoop Collective Podcast after this Grainger.
- [13:24]
Jonathan Gavoni
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- [16:56]
Wendy
Well, we saw Vijay Edgecomb's value this past summer already at the, in the FIBA Olympic qualifying tournament in Spain where he went up first of all he had on his team DeAndre Ayton Buddy healed Eric Gordon. He was by far the best player on that team right there. And then going up against Jeremy Sohan with Poland, a very, very good Spanish team and you know, was phenomenal. You know, so right there you could say, I mean, I mean this guy is ready to play in the NBA tonight. You know, like now he's going to play a year in college. His year in college was actually a little bit up and down and I think it's a, it's a not a very that different of a scenario situation than Rutgers. Just Baylor had a lot more money. They just didn't spend it very well and he was not, you know, put in the best position. I mean he was, he was playing small forward for a big part of the two bigs alongside him who can't shoot. And so, you know, the first, I think third to half of the year, they were really trying to figure out what's the best way to utilize him. You know, finally they started bringing Jeremy Roach off the bench and they put the ball in his hands a little bit more. I mean, Vijay Edgecombe, you know, is probably the most athletic player in college basketball. It's either him or Cohen Carr from Michigan State. And he gets anywhere he wants in the floor then. But he's got some real skill now, too, in terms of his ball handling, his passing, his finishing. He made gigantic strides with his outside shooting in Big 12 play. Had some monster games. You know, has huge upside on the defensive end. He plays exceptionally hard, he blocks shots, he gets steals, he gets rebounds. I mean, he's a very, very safe guy. But the upside is, you know, tremendous. At the same time, I mean, people are very excited about this group as a whole. Cooper Flag, obviously is the headliner. Dylan Harper too. But this, you know, the whole top five part of the draft is, you know, very, very enticing. And Vijay Edgecombe is a big reason for that. Let's hope, you know, that we get this matchup with Cooper Flag. That'd be awesome, you know, but not, you know, Baylor definitely not the best year for them in terms of, you know, just the talent that they assembled.
- [19:03]
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, which is why they're in this 8, 9 matchup, you know, hoping to win, to end up against the number one seed for a chance to go to the sweet 16. You know, Jonathan sort of laid it out, but it wasn't really an up and down season. Fredgecombe so much, it was a down then up, and he was so much better in conference play. The other element of it getting to the basket much more frequently than we saw early on and, you know, I think still some development to, to do there as a finisher. But the steel and block rates really jump off the page. And, you know, if you're looking at the top five guys in Jonathan's rankings, if you look at most of these statistical projections like mine, I think, you know, the pure stats only version is going to have Cooper number one among those guys and then probably Vijay Edgecombe a lot of the time number two over Dylan Harper. Despite the fact that Dylan Harper had a terrific season, it's nothing that did wrong. It's just that that edge comes. Stats projections are so strong.
- [19:53]
Jonathan Gavoni
The guy that you've got fifth, you know, he may even be out by the time this is on television. And that's Trey Johnson. Jonathan from Texas, another team that kind of underwhelmed. A lot of people think their coach is going to be fired soon as the season is over. He's a 6, 6 wing. What should we know about Trey Johnson?
- [20:14]
Wendy
He's just a scoring machine. I mean think about, you know, like a bigger, longer, better passing. Cam Thomas is what is what Trey Johnson is. He's just an absolute bucket getter. Scores from everywhere on the floor can do it one on one out of pick and roll, you know, spotting up, coming off screens. Had, you know, multiple 30 point games in the SEC as an 18 year old. That's not easy to do, you know. And so they just snuck into the NCAA tournament here late and we'll see if they even get out of, you know, the play ins in Dayton. But Yeah, I mean 6 foot 6, 610 wingspan scores like he breathes. I mean that's, you know, that's what the NBA is looking for. So that's, he's a pretty easy guy to project. The question is, you know, how much can he drive winning? You know, like the defensive side was very poor at times this year. There were a lot of moments with bad shot selection, with bad body language where he, you know, put his head down, struggled to get by people. A lot of, you know, tough shots in the mid range. You know, I mean that's not unique to a guy who is 18 years old playing in the toughest conference in college basketball and didn't have, you know, a great set of teammates around him also. But you know, it's kind of in the story of Trey Johnson's career even in other settings too. So I'm very interested to see how NBA teams look at him. Kp, what is, what does your motto say about Trey Johnson?
- [21:45]
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, he, he's up there just outside the, the top five. When you factor in his rank in the top 100, his stats only projection is not as strong and I think you nailed it with the comp. We need to start disagreeing more often. But that's exactly who I've been thinking about is, is Cam Thomas. And he is bigger and longer at 6 foot 6. We need to see him put those tools to use more at the defensive end. I, I thought the game where they crashed out of the end, the SEC tournament against Tennessee was sort of revealing. The Volunteers were repeatedly trying to put him in pick and roll and target him defensively and he ended up dealing with some foul trouble in that game. Coming off playing I think 44 minutes the night before in Their double overtime win that probably ultimately was what got them this spot in the tournament. So, you know, I think, as you said, it's a matter of can. Can he do more than just create his own shot at the next level. And I do start to worry a little bit about guys whose strength at the college level. You can say this maybe a little bit about Base Bailey as well. Although, as you noted, the team factors are a concern there. If your strength is hitting contested shots at the college level, those often become unmakeable shots at the NBA level. I go back to when we were all sort of starting out in this industry. Adam Morrison at Gonzaga, I watched him play, you know, a ton. Obviously, being in the state of Washington, saw one of his best game winners against Oklahoma State at KeyArena back in the day. And he was an incredible shot maker at the college level. Got to the NBA level and some of those became too difficult for him to even get off. Now Tree Johnson is much younger, has a lot of room to develop, and Adam Morrison's development was obviously slowed by the ACL injury he had in the NBA. But, you know, that's kind of, I guess the concern for me is, you know, can. Can he score efficiently in the NBA level like Cam Thomas has proven he can do?
- [23:29]
Jonathan Gavoni
I want to cover the other two Duke guys because you have him ranked sixth and seventh on your list. Jonathan Khan, Kanuppal and Kaman Maliuk. I have to just say, don't know anything about college basketball. Wouldn't dream of trying to project this tournament at all. However, I would say that historically when you see teams win the title or get very close to the title, a lot of times it's because they've got two or three NBA players on the roster. Doesn't mean that you're guaranteed. But a lot of times you see that. I'm looking at your rankings here. I see three Duke guys in the top seven and the other players that you have ranked high, their teams are not really contenders for the title. So I would say I don't know how Duke couldn't be the over. And maybe they are. I think they are the number one overall seed. But like, based on this, I would. I can't see how Duke isn't just the overwhelming favorite, but what have you seen from these two guys? Come on. Is a guy that you told me about, I think two or three years ago, Jonathan, and sent me through the rain in, in Manila to watch the South Sudanese qualify for the, for the Olympics. And it was a great moment for him. I think he was 16 at the time, so. But these two guys obviously have had good seasons as well, great seasons.
- [24:41]
Wendy
They've both, you know, far exceeded expectations. I mean, what Kaman Malawatch did on Saturday night in the ACC tournament championship on the defensive end was incredible. Switching on every screen, hedging out to half court, you know, staying with guards and, and turning his hips, you know, meeting guys back at the rim. Only two blocks now. He doesn't block a ton of shots, but he changes everything. And so I don't know how, you know, you really account for that from an analytic standpoint, but I think I'm pretty sure they have the number one or number two defense in college basketball. And a lot of that is because of, come on, Malawatch. People don't even challenge him in the pain at this point. He's so long and he's so mobile and he plays so hard that, I mean, he is going to anchor an NBA defense for many, many years to come. You know, he's also a great rebounder and he's, he's not a skilled offensive player, but he knows what his role is. He's a very good screen setter. He's learned, you know, how to re screen, roll to the rim with timing, presents himself for finishes, you know, be a lob threat, you know, go follow misses, runs the floor, you know, really, really well. Just really, really physical. Only been playing basketball for, you know, I think around five years now, so still has a lot of room to improve. Everybody raves about his character just to the joy that he brings, you know, how selfless, you know, of a human being he is.
- [26:15]
Jonathan Gavoni
He does have a really good Persona in the times I've talked to him.
- [26:18]
Wendy
Yeah, I mean, and that's going to help him, I think, quite a bit. You know, every time I go to, you know, I went to a Duke practice, just the stories that would come out from everybody in the support staff, I mean, how beloved this guy is. I mean, that really does play a factor in whether, you know, like a raw player reaches potential. A lot of that has to do with work ethic and character and just that buy in that he's going to have, you know, he's. He's not a guy who. He knows who he is as a basketball player. But I went to watch them practice. He's going to be a very good shooter in time too. I'm convinced of it. He only takes a handful of threes right now. He only made a handful of threes, but just watching his footwork and his mechanics and the touch and all that. I think he's going to be a guy that ends up stretching the floor. I'm already high on Kaman Moloch. The other guy, Khan Cannipple a little bit divisive among NBA people just because, you know, not doesn't have very long arms. Has kind of like people call like a fire hydrant, you know, body players.
- [27:20]
Jonathan Gavoni
Players in this zone, sort of the back half of the lottery with this profile have burned GMs in the past. Is it fair to say that maybe they have?
- [27:28]
Wendy
But he's not going to. He is going to be an absolute star in the NBA. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being an all star. He knew everything on the basketball court. People look at him, they're like yeah, he's a white guy from Wisconsin. He's going to be a shooter. Yeah, he's a shooter. He's a great shooter but he does way more than that with Cooper. Flag gets hurt. They put the ball in Concan nipples hands. He basically was playing point guard for them for a big part of the year. He led them in pick and roll usage. He's a great passer. He has an outstanding field for the game. Physical, competitive, you know, that's a. Not a high flyer. People worry about him defensively. I have no, zero concerns about him on the defensive.
- [28:05]
Jonathan Gavoni
I mean six, seven. I mean, I mean you may have short arms but he's got good size.
- [28:09]
Wendy
He's not, he's always in the right spots. Yeah, I mean like he just has a knack for understanding where to be. He knows his scouting report. I think Con Canypo is going to be a big time NBA player. I think he's going to be like a Klay Thompson. That's what I think.
- [28:22]
Jonathan Gavoni
That's my HO Pelton. These are strong words from a man who does not hand them out easily.
- [28:28]
Kevin Pelton
That is very true on both counts. Knipple is someone who after I incorporated the Nike EYBL from 2023 into my projections just finally got that all, you know, cleaned up that data and ready to go. And Knipple played well enough in the EYBL that he shot up to number two in the overall projections ahead of Vijay Edgecombe behind only.
- [28:49]
Jonathan Gavoni
I can already look forward to the summer. The, the eyes of Gavoni likes him. The computers of Pelton likes him. I, I'm rubbing my hands together here thinking about what this could mean guys.
- [29:00]
Wendy
Okay, but we'll see. I mean not everybody, not all the NBA guys have him in the top 10. So I'm very curious to see how this plays out.
- [29:07]
Jonathan Gavoni
This, this reminds me of Reed shepherd last year. I mean Reed shepherd is not 6, 7, but I talked to some guys last year who were ready to adopt Reed shepherd and other guys who said I wouldn't draft him with the 10 foot pole and he had and he can't get on the court this year because of defensive issues. So now again, not that they're the same player, but I'm just saying like it reminds me of that type of.
- [29:26]
Wendy
They're cut from the same cloth in terms of just the way the, the attitude that they bring and the, the skill level and the feel for the game and all that. I mean that there is some. That's what John Shire told me, you know, like a year ago he said you were going to absolutely love Khan Cannipple. This guy is like Reed shepherd with four more inches.
- [29:44]
Jonathan Gavoni
Yeah.
- [29:45]
Wendy
Which helps a lot.
- [29:46]
Jonathan Gavoni
All right now, now we're going to go to this point guard from Illinois. You have my think as the. Jonathan, you've got him as the, let's see, number 8th prospect from Vilnius, Lithuania, which is home to many terrific Eastern European prospects over the decades. Definitely comes from a track record of an area that produces players. But is that Illinois? Casperus, Yakionis, Yakuchonis, big point guard here and I'm looking forward to watching him in international play. I'm sure he's going to be a big part of the Lithuanian national team going forward. Jonathan, what do you like about this guy?
- [30:22]
Wendy
Great size for a point guard, 6 foot 6, tough as plays with pace. Has a great feel for the game. Big time playmaker, out of pick and roll, just dissects defenses. Can make, you know, every pass that you want out of ball, screens and brings big time shot making progress too, you know, can hit, pull up, step backs, good in the mid range, you know, just plays an unselfish, intelligent brand of basketball but you know, gets the rim, finishes, plays through contact. I mean he was looking like an almost sure fire top five pick for most of the season. Really hit a rough patch the last six weeks of the season. Has really struggled to make shots. Made some very, very questionable decisions with the ball in his hands, you know, some really curious to see how they come out here in the NCAA tournament, you know, how does he finish the year? You know, only 18 years old. We don't usually see these kind of players come to college basketball. You know, like was signed in Barcelona, was on track to be, you know, a big time player in Spain instead, you know, changes course, gets a big nil deal. Illinois recruits the heck out of him. He comes, he's starting the Big Ten. He hit a little bit of a wall, you know, but I think that that's going to happen to 18 year olds who haven't gone through this type of season. The Big Ten is a very, very physical league. You know, he's getting beaten up every single time he steps on the court. So I'm still a big fan, but there's a segment of the NBA population who, you know, didn't really turn their attention fully to the draft up until about two months ago. And they're kind of looking at Yakuzhuna saying, what's, what's all the fuss about?
- [32:03]
Jonathan Gavoni
Yeah, Pelton.
- [32:04]
Kevin Pelton
So I think there's two matchups in this NCAA tournament that NBA scouts are really going to want to like. One team to win to set up the matchup. And so we already talked about Baylor in their first round and potentially getting to do the other one would be Texas and Trey Johnson in the first four. Who are they going up against? Xavier. If they can win and set up a matchup against Illinois, that we could get Trey Johnson versus Yakichonas and have another batch up of top 10 prospects in the first round in this case, that would be, I think, very exciting. And you know, I, I described Yakachonas to, to Tim Bontemps when we were watching games together in Boston a couple weeks ago and you know, I compared him to go on Dragic. He's not left handed, but he does use his left hand very well and kind of plays a little bit left handed, I would say in the same kind of big physical guard. We've seen the success that Goran Dragic had doing that in both the NBA and international competition. I think the swing skill for that is going to be the having the shooting on a consistent basis. And the other thing that holds back Yakachonis in the projections is not very high steal and block rates.
- [33:06]
Jonathan Gavoni
Okay, so this is a guy you've got ninth, I believe, who's I think after Cooper Flag, the second youngest guy in the draft. Least that I can see. Jonathan Jeremiah Fears from Oklahoma, another point guard who I don't remember seeing ranked this high earlier this season. But don't hold me to that. I could be wrong.
- [33:26]
Wendy
No, I mean he, he definitely. Listen, he, he was, he's supposed to be in high school right now. He decided to reclassify in the summer. He was actually originally committed to Illinois to play in 2026. But played in the EYBL and then decided, hey, I'm going to go get that money. And so he, you know, he felt ready and he, he enrolled at Ilan, at ok, who had a huge needed point guard. Porter Moses put the ball in his hands and you know, he had an awesome year. You know, he's been one of the best freshmen in college basketball. 6 foot 4, gets anywhere he wants in the court, tremendous ball handler, has great pace, plays through contact a lot better than you would think for a guy with his frame, you know, just oozing with talent. And so they, they made the NCAA tournament, which is a big accomplishment for them. They're going to play against UConn in the first round. Not an easy one at all. But I think that's going to be a very interesting matchup just because you're going to. People get to see Beers, who is ranked in the top 10, and then Liam McNeely, who is a projected lottery pick. So that's, you know, that's the way that the bracket shaped up is. Has really been awesome for all of us.
- [34:30]
Jonathan Gavoni
You know, I was thinking about. Pelton is in the mock draft that Jonathan put out last week with, with Jeremy Wu at espn. And granted it can change a lot, but right now he's got, he's got Fears going to Houston at the number 11 pick. And again, who knows whether it'll actually be the number 11 pick, but this is the pick that Phoenix actually has to send to Houston. This is exactly the type of player that Phoenix would need. I mean, this is, this is exactly the type of player any, any of these point guards would be the exact type of player that Phoenix would need.
- [34:58]
Kevin Pelton
And a young player.
- [34:59]
Jonathan Gavoni
Yeah, sorry not to. Yeah, sorry not to take a stray. The Suns fans. I didn't mean to be mean, but. Sorry. Go ahead, Pelton.
- [35:05]
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, I think Fears, it's interesting that it's at Oklahoma, this really high usage role, so kind of similar in some ways to Trey Young during his season there. Obviously not that kind of shooter, Jeremiah Fears, but, you know, still reasonably efficient for a college freshman, given that enormous volume that he was handling. And I think that's what, you know, makes him exciting from a statistical standpoint. So, yeah, I mean, I have him in the consensus projections in the top 10 as well. And you know, in addition to McNeely, I think curious to see him go up against solo ball, who's had a nice sophomore season for UConn in the backcourt.
- [35:41]
Jonathan Gavoni
All right, so wrapping up the top 10 here, Derek Queen, a Freshman from Maryland. I know Maryland has had a good run recently. Finally got a big here. Jonathan. This is, this is a, a top 10 here that were. Maliwick is the only guy he was really what clack would you would classify as a big man in your, in your top 10? But this guy, you know, makes your top 10 at Maryland. A little older, 20 years old, but you must like him for a reason.
- [36:08]
Wendy
I mean, the skill level is off the charts. People compare him to like Alperin Shangoon. That's, you know, his style of play. Great hands, great in the post. Big time pick and roll finisher, you know, very good operating in the mid pose, creating his own shot. Can really, really pass the ball. Not a great shooter and definitely not a great defender. Those are the two areas that people want to see him improve on a little bit stuck between positions. He's super six foot nine. You know, is he a four? Is he a five? Who does he guard? Can he stretch the floor? You know, there's, there's a certain threshold you need to reach to be able to play that operation or Demonte Sabonis type role where, you know, the offense is being run through you and people are willing to live with some of your defensive mistakes. And we're going to see if Derrick Queen can reach that threshold. I mean, the productivity has been phenomenal, especially here late in the year. Maryland had a, had a great season. He was, you know, Big ten freshman of the year. A little bit of older like you said, but you know, coming to the NBA ready to play from a skill level standpoint, from a physical standpoint, you know, not, not a lot to nitpick, especially on the offensive end. All right.
- [37:15]
Kevin Pelton
This is a, this is a case where the projections diverge a little bit. You'll remember that.
- [37:19]
Jonathan Gavoni
I love it.
- [37:20]
Kevin Pelton
El Peron Sengun was number one in my model going into that year's draft when he ended up getting taken, I think 14th.
- [37:26]
Jonathan Gavoni
Yeah, and, and the, the Thunder traded out of the pick like the Rockets traded up to.
- [37:31]
Kevin Pelton
Yeah. Speaking of things, the, the Rockets benefited from in the draft. But you know, last year's draft had a couple of really highly rated centers statistically in Donovan Klingon and Zach Edie this year. I think in part because of the fact that the production that those guys had set the bar so high. Like therefore, the centers, you know, aren't really rating as well, at least for me statistically in this year's draft. And Queen is part of that group where, you know, the, that the two point percentages for centers Tend to be so high. I guess I never talked about Mali watch at all. He, he's kind of similar, I think in many ways to Mark Williams, who's a guy we've heard a lot about on the hoop collective lately. And you know, he's shooting like 70% plus from the field. Derek Queen because of the fact, in part because he's spending so much time, you know, on the perimeter or facing up and playing that way. Shot 56% which you know now is, is compared to NBA centers in the NBA is about average. So you know you're going to probably subtract a little bit from that as you make the transition from college. For all those reasons, he doesn't come out very well. And I think if you're looking for kind of a pessimistic comparison, the guy I think about sometimes in terms of like just not quite skilled enough to get the usage that he did in college when I watch Queen is Thomas Bryant.
- [38:41]
Jonathan Gavoni
All right, one guy, before we go down the list a little bit, I think we should just bring up because I think he's going to make a run and people will know the name. And that's Jace Richardson, who followed his dad Jason to Michigan State. Michigan State's 2 seed, won the Big Ten regular season 6, 6, 3. You know, combo guard, shot the heck out of the ball. Gavoni, what should I be looking at with Jace Richardson?
- [39:04]
Wendy
So he was pretty much like a 3 and D guy for them for most of the season. Coming off the bench, really just parked in the corner like a lot of freshmen do. For Tom Izzo, they had Jeremiah Fears. His brother Jeremy Fears is the point guard. He got sick. They put Jeremiah, sir. They put Jace Richardson in the starting lineup and he's just taken off since then. Just, you know, way more aggressive with the ball, playing more pick and roll now has a, you know, great pace to his game. Feel for the game, is a big time shot maker. Plays really, really hard. Some questions about, you know, the upside. He's measured at 6 foot 2. He's not exactly a pure point guard. He, you know, he's really mostly looking for his own but you know, really smart, tough, incredibly efficient. I'm curious, kp, what are the, what does the model say about Jace Richardson? He's, he's a very high like BPM guy. I mean he's a very high efficiency guy. What does your motto think about him?
- [40:03]
Kevin Pelton
Yeah, I think the fact that he came on late is maybe hurting him a little bit here. He's got a lot of strength. We talked about that earlier. Guys that are in like the top 25% of players at their position. His two point percentage is getting to the free throw line. His turnover rate then and you know, his assist because I'm treating him as a combo guard and his usage are still kind of low because of that first part of the season. So you know, I he ends up in my overall projections about where he is in the top 100. But definitely excited about what I've seen from him down the stretch. I hadn't seen him play in a little while until I I tuned into the big turn 10 tournament this weekend and I was shocked to see how much he was handling the ball and and how many pick and rolls they had going to his left getting middle. More Hoop Collective podcast after this. In case you didn't know, these young men are driven. They are prodigies, the savants, the ones we've been waiting for. Like Damian Lillard for instance. He doesn't seek guidance or mentorship. He's a leader. He isn't waiting for the baton to be passed to him, he's taking it for himself. He's relentless in a pursuit of greatness, always pushing to one up himself. He is accomplished, but far from satisfied. He embodies what it means to have an unstoppable drive and are shaking up the status quo in their community and beyond. And Damian Lillard drives a Toyota. A new generation of Toyota drivers are here and they want you to know one thing. You can't stop my drive. I can say to my new Samsung.
- [41:22]
Jonathan Gavoni
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- [41:27]
Wendy
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Jonathan Gavoni
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Wendy
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Jonathan Gavoni
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Kevin Pelton
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- [42:25]
Jonathan Gavoni
All right, let's talk about some guys that are down the board that you guys are excited about, about or at least want to talk about. So Pelton, you mentioned Isaiah Evans, a wing who's at Duke freshman. I know nothing about him. What should I know?
- [42:39]
Kevin Pelton
This guy is coming in firing for Duke off the bench.
- [42:43]
Wendy
He's.
- [42:43]
Kevin Pelton
He's gonna get threes up and get them up in a hurry. And it's interesting because in many ways he's the type of player my model should not like. He has very low steal and block rates which usually tend to be very important. Doesn't. Or very. The block rate actually is decent. Was at least in the EYBL level but not. Not filling out the box score with rebounds, assists and skills at all. And the three point percentage that he's had this season, which I think is, you know, in the mid-40s, gets regressed pretty heavily to the mean the way that my model works because it's just not that large a sample of attempts. And yet still because of the three point volume, he is in the pure stats model number two behind Cooper Fleck. I would not endorse that. I do not think he's the number two prospect. But I am very fascinated to see.
- [43:24]
Jonathan Gavoni
Oh my God.
- [43:24]
Kevin Pelton
What this translates into.
- [43:26]
Jonathan Gavoni
I'm so excited that a guy Gavoni has in the 40s is number two. Oh my God. That makes the first time. I know, I know. It makes me so happy. John.
- [43:33]
Kevin Pelton
No.
- [43:34]
Jonathan Gavoni
You guys may have heard it's something the Lakers did with the 55th pick last year. It was minorly discussed throughout the last 10 months or so. They potentially had the 55th pick again this year. Again, I'm just messing around. But that is where Jonathan has this guy.
- [43:48]
Wendy
No. 46, you know.
- [43:50]
Jonathan Gavoni
I'm sorry, you have him 55th in your mock with Jeremy.
- [43:53]
Wendy
Right.
- [43:53]
Jonathan Gavoni
Just to be clear, I was.
- [43:55]
Wendy
Yeah, last week. Yeah.
- [43:56]
Jonathan Gavoni
But 46th in the NCAA tournament list. Now this is, this is interesting to me because I'm out here in the Midwest and you know, Drake is three straight NCAA tournaments. A lot of interest in Drake in this part of the. Of the country. Bennett Sturts Pelton. Why do I need to know the name Bennett Sturts?
- [44:14]
Kevin Pelton
You know, I kept seeing at the start of the season I always get the. The sports reference daily email digest of college basketball and like the Wind shares leaders in the country and there's you know, Janai Broom and Cooper Flag, the guys who are in the national player of the year conversation. And then this guy. I've never heard of Bennett Stertz from Drake. And that's the sort of situation where I always tend to send Jonathan a text saying what's up with this guy? What's his deal? And his story is kind of fascinating because he followed his coach, Ben McCollum from were they D2 last year? I I not division one. Yeah, yeah. So this is his first year that we have any stats for him that I can use in my model. And when I finally got him added, you know, he's a little older at 21. We only have the one season of data, so he didn't quite break the model the way I was expecting. But he is in the top 30 overall comfortably. And it's one of those funny things where, you know, you see these guys, their numbers. I had never seen him play until I, I happened to catch their conference championship in the, the Arch Madness, the best name conference tournament against Bradley. And a lot of fun to watch because you see the Steel Ray, it translates into a lot of activity at the defensive end, you know, a lot of distribution at the offensive end and someone who can shoot. So I'm curious, are NBA teams believing this?
- [45:29]
Wendy
A lot of NBA guys were asking me about Bennett Stertz at the Sloan Conference last week. I mean they other models are obviously similarly calibrated to yours. You know, they're seeing that, you know, on a per possession basis he really fills up the box score with, with rebounds and steals and, and, and assists and points and scores it very efficiently. He actually leads college basketball in minutes played. He plays over 40 minutes per game because I guess they went to an overtime or two and he never comes off the floor. Otherwise they play the slowest pace in college basketball. And so that's where you know, his, you know, the per possession stuff is really amplified for him. They've only played one NCAA tournament team all year in Vanderbilt and he, I would say he had, you know, a good, not a great game. And so I'm just very, very curious to see they're playing Missouri in the NCAA tournament. If they beat them, you know, they'll move on to, to play Texas Tech potentially. So I mean that's what I would love to see is just a higher level competition because you know, they milk the shot clock. They play so slow. He really struggles to beat people off the dribble. You know, when against switches, you know, getting in the paint and finishing very frail frame. You wonder how he would hold up, you know, on the defensive end against better players. But I love the way that this guy play. I love his feel for the game. The pick and roll, playmaking prowess, you know, the shot making and the confidence and the poise and just the whole package, honestly, is awesome to watch. I watched a couple of games from, from the, the conference tournament and it's fun. So, I mean, he's moved up on our board. I'm really curious to see how it looks against Missouri. You know, just their whole deal, everything they do is almost the exact opposite of how the NBA plays in terms of the pace and all that. So I'm curious to see how it translates against a much faster paced opponent in Missouri.
- [47:31]
Jonathan Gavoni
Well, Ben McCollum is a name that has gotten a lot of attention in the Midwest this year because this is a guy who was a head coach at Northwest Missouri state for what, 15 years. He won three or four division, two national championships. Might have won another because they were. Had this run where they won three out of four or something. And the COVID canceled it, they didn't play it. And he comes to Drake, brings players with him. They're immediately in the instability tournament and he's playing Missouri. You know, obviously when you're at Northwest Missouri State, you're looking at the big school, Missouri. How many times did Missouri make a hire? How many times? Those 15 years, that Missouri job opened several times and, you know, he never got it. And so now he's playing Missouri with the chance to go, and Indiana is.
- [48:15]
Wendy
Open now, and he's apparently supposed to be one of the leading candidates or Iowa, you know, where he's from.
- [48:21]
Jonathan Gavoni
Yeah, I mean, Iowa might have fired Frank McCaffrey to hire him.
- [48:26]
Wendy
Right?
- [48:26]
Jonathan Gavoni
We'll see. The reason Indiana has been rumored is that, you know, Indiana hired Kirk Signetti, you know, from James Madison. Not that I'm comparing James Madison to Northwest Missouri State, but, you know, a guy who had success at a lower level, and then he immediately explodes moving to Indiana. And I think they liked that model. And so if skirts plays really well.
- [48:47]
Wendy
Let'S say if they win a game, you know, Ben McCollum gets the Indiana job, maybe Sturts plays too well to follow him. I think that'd be a great part of the package, you know, to bring a guy like Bennett Sterz with you to Indiana, but maybe he's off to the NBA. So probably the. The best case is if they win and he doesn't play well. I mean, that would be the best case scenario for them.
- [49:10]
Jonathan Gavoni
Well, look, I live in Omaha. When, when Greg McDermott came over from Northern Iowa and brought his son Doug McDermott, it changed the trajectory of Creighton basketball. They, you know, with, you know, they were in the Big east all of a sudden and now I got Mike Shashefsky out there advocating for the Big east to merge. You know, they've been in the Big east title game like four or five years and I got Mike out there advocating, you know, for. I can't tell you how much I want the ACC to merge Jonathan with the Big East. I would love ACC teams to be coming into Omaha. But anyway, keep an eye on Ben McCollum and keep an eye on Sturts. Now he is, I. Let me get your opinion on this. He is 21 years old. So if he consulted you, Jonathan, and said should I go to high major X or even if it's, Even if Ben McCollum stays there or should I go into this draft where people like Jonathan Gavoni have me in the 40s, maybe I can elevate. What would you tell them to do?
- [50:17]
Wendy
I would enter the draft, go to the combine and let's see how it translates, you know, like against high major athletes. You got two games there and people really get to see you in the drills and all that, get to know you, watch, interview you. And then he can decide from the feedback that he gets, you know, like am I the 29th pick, am I the 39th pick? Am I the 49th pick? Am I the 19th pick? And make a very informed decision because if you're only going to get a two way contract.
- [50:42]
Kevin Pelton
No.
- [50:43]
Wendy
Then how you go to go to Indiana, take $2 million. You're crazy. A two way is worth $600,000. It's not guaranteed. So that's, you know, the calculation that a lot of guys are going to be making this spring with the, the nil dollars that are out there, you know. Another guy that I assume is really high on KP's board is Yaksell Lindenberg from UAB. You know, he's in the 40s on our board. That's two way contract territory. He's going to get 1.5 to 2 million dollars at the bare minimum. Do you take that two way for 600 or do you go take the 2 million? It's not an easy decision for a lot of these guys.
- [51:19]
Jonathan Gavoni
Okay, before we go, we've gone over these guys, lots of insight. I've learned a lot here today. Pelton, one guy that you think could be the march darling that nobody's talking about, but we could all know in two or three weeks.
- [51:32]
Kevin Pelton
I mean it's going to take a major upset because his team doesn't have the talent it had last year. Tyler Kulak and Oso Iguidoro are both in the NBA, but Cam Jones and Marquette to me is just getting entirely slept on as an NBA prospect and if they can knock off Michigan State to get to the sweet 16 is the seven seed. I think that would, that would be huge for his stock.
- [51:50]
Jonathan Gavoni
Jonathan, do you have anybody?
- [51:51]
Wendy
Danny Wolf, maybe the most unique player in college basketball. 7ft tall, plays point guard quite a bit for Michigan. Big time pick and roll player. Has a really interesting matchup with UC San Diego, one of the best mid majors in the country. You know if they, if they win that, you know they would move on to play. Who do they have after that? Texas A and M. So I, Danny Wolfe is the guy that I'll be following very closely.
- [52:21]
Jonathan Gavoni
Thank you guys so much for your insight. I really appreciate it. I depend on you to make me not sound so stupid when it comes to college basketball. Thank you to Jackson, our producer. Thank you for watching and listening to who Collective. We'll talk to you later this week.
- [52:47]
Kevin Pelton
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