← Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
Giannis’ Uncertain Future + Season Win Total Draft
01:21:24
Hoop Collective: Giannis’ Uncertain Future + Season Win Total Draft
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- [00:04]
A
When did making plans get this complicated? It's time to streamline with WhatsApp, the.
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Secure messaging app that brings the whole group together. Use polls to settle dinner plans.
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Send event invites and pin messages so no one forgets mom 60th and never.
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C
Miss a meme or milestone.
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A
All protected with end to end encryption.
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C
It's time for WhatsApp message privately with everyone.
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A
Learn more@WhatsApp.com.
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B
Hello. Welcome to the Hoop Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA, which we're doing on Thursday afternoon. Joining us from New York City, Tim Bonthouse.
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C
Hello, everybody.
- [00:46]
B
Joining us from Oklahoma City, back where last season ended, where I believe the fellow Thunder are playing the Charlotte Hornets tonight, is Bam McMahon.
- [00:56]
A
Howdy, partners. I chatted with Lou Dort after shoot around this morning. He's like, I feel like I just saw you a few weeks ago. Tell me about it.
- [01:06]
B
They're still cleaning up from the parade. OkC.
- [01:10]
A
The. This big old convention center across the street got knocked over in the celebration, apparently.
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B
Yeah, they thought, they thought that the, that the celebration was kind of a little bit muted in okc. You come back and they've torn down the arena. Yes, the old myriad. I believe I'm pronouncing it correctly. The myriad. The myriad. The old arena, where there used to be some great college basketball played, is being torn down across from the OKC arena to make way for the new Thunder arena, which is coming in like sort of the end of the decade. It's a slope.
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A
Yeah. 20. I think 28 is when it'll open up.
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B
28. Okay.
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C
Three years.
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B
Three years. All right. We're going to do one of our favorite preseason podcasts today, which I think involves a Snake draft. Can we agree to not do a snake draft?
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A
No, no. In the middle. You. We can agree to put you in the middle.
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B
I have.
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C
We have. We. Well, we have a way to solve that. Well, not solve it, but it. It'll be up to you to determine the order later when we get to that.
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B
Okay, before we do, before we do that, we have some, some interesting developments in the Giannis antenna kumpo front. Such as that is Shams Charania earlier this week reported that in August it seems that Giannis's direction they can play around with who wants to point at whose finger at whom. But in. It wasn't the Bucks idea. Okay, so the Knicks and the Bucks held some discussions about Giannis. I don't know. This is breaking news here. The trade did not happen. Now Giannis is a buck and will be a Buck for at least a foreseeable future. The way he put it was, I'm totally committed to the Bucks, and if I change my mind in six or seven months, that's, you know, that's human.
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A
I did think six or seven months was interesting because that is post trade deadline. So that's true. It's not a.
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C
It's not a bible, but it's post season, right? It's post season.
- [03:11]
B
Six months. Seven months is May.
- [03:13]
C
That's right. Yeah.
- [03:14]
B
So next.
- [03:15]
C
Next off season.
- [03:17]
B
Yeah. Will the Bucks be still playing in May? If they are, doubt it. Well, if they are, Giannis might feel a certain way. If they don't, he might feel a certain way. Montems, let me just say, you know what our motto here on the pod is Actions over words. Yes, it is. As you know, the Bucks did some pretty crazy accounting this summer, waving and stretching Dame lillard for over $100 million and then immediately using that cap space to sign miles Turner to $100 million contract. Probably the most shocking move of the summer. I don't know how impactful it will be. I think an NBA rank, which is certainly not the be all, end all of basketball evaluation, but it's what we have, an NBA rank. I think Miles Turner was 57. If you want to go toe to toe on whether Myles Turner is a top 50 player, certainly go for that. But that player is replacing a guy who was not going to play in Dame Willard. So in terms of your team, getting a player of that level is a good upgrade, even though it's extraordinarily costly long term. But Giannis saw all that, watched the Bucks conclude their off season, and apparently said, hey, New York would be nice. And so I'm going to take that action. Bon Thames. As the Miles Turner trade didn't exactly change Giannis's worldview of the future of the Bucks.
- [04:45]
C
Yeah, I mean, look, the, the, all of the arrows for quite a while have been pointing towards this being the last year Giannis will be with the Bucks. Now, he's extended a couple times before. Perhaps next summer, he will decide to extend by another, however many years on his contract, and that will not be the case. But Giannis's contract is up in two years. He did not extend this summer after the start of the season another 10, 12 days. He can't extend until next summer. And so it's a very natural inflection point when the Bucks will go to Giannis. I'm sure, with his every single possible contract permutation they can offer him. And Say, hey, Giannis, would you like to sign one of these? And if the answer is, I don't really think so, I got to think about it, I don't know, then he's going to get traded because they're not going to have Giannis Sandokoun leave for nothing. And that, to me, feels like where this is headed because again, actions over words. You have Giannis standing here and he's talking at media day and saying, oh, yeah, I'm committed for now. I'm excited because I'm here now. I could change my mind in the future, as you just laid out. It's all good. People should be allowed to do that. It's like it's all setting up for where this is. And look, full, full credit to the Bucks for doing whatever they can to keep the best player, you know, the second best player in the history of the franchise overall and the best player in terms of Bucks career ever, as long as they can. Because there's a very real chance there'll never be another player like Giannis on the Bucks, and they should keep them as long as they can. But this team, anybody who isn't employed by the Bucks or a Bucks fan, looking at this team where the third best player is Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Kyle Kuzma, like, name the player, right? This is not a team that's good enough to be a top two team in the east, let alone a team that is realistically a title contender. Like, no one can look at this and say that. It's not even within the realm of realistic possibility. And for the Bucks to go into the season and say, hey, this is the best we could do, we think we're good enough to compete. Like, I understand why they're saying that, but I don't think any rational basketball person can look at this and say that. Which is why in the GM survey, I think survey, I think the Bucks were picked to finish sixth in every projection model. They're projected to be somewhere between, like, 42 and 45 games. They're, you know, maybe going to be in the top six in the East. Maybe they'll be in the playing, especially depending on if Giannis is healthy. But yeah, like, if Giannis wants, if Yana, as Giannis has said, I want to be on teams that's competing for championships. Well, they lost in the playoffs, first round of the playoffs, three straight years, and now they have a team that's objectively not good enough be a home court advantage team in the east, and the east is the JV Conference. So, yeah, like we're all going to sit here and wait for this to happen. But I, I think even all of these comments, even, even Doc Rivers, when Doc Rivers says, well, when John Horse makes a phone call, that's when, you know this is different. Well, guess when John Horse is going to start making phone calls next summer if Giannis doesn't extend. So, you know, it just is what it is.
- [08:02]
A
It's been this dance that's kind of been going on for. Really. Giannis has been participating in the dance for a few years now. Right before that, it was a bunch of teams trying to dance with, with him within the, you know, reasonable tampering protocols. I would say not within the rules, but, you know, Giannis has been participating in this dance for a few years now. It's. No one's going to blame him when he eventually asks out of Milwaukee. Okay? No one's going to blame him. And by the way, by the way.
- [08:34]
C
By the way, I don't think he's ever going to ask out of Milwaukee.
- [08:37]
A
Okay, well, we can. Mitchell never asked out of Utah, but, well, we can play that semantic game.
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C
I agree, but that's what I'm saying. Like, if he was going to ask out of Milwaukee, as Brian said on TV the other day, the time to do that was two months ago or three months ago. Not, not in August, not in September.
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A
Why?
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C
The Knicks did all their business this offseason.
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A
You know, if he asks out, whether officially or just pushes it to a point where it's time to trade him, no one's going to blame him for that. He had a historic run in Milwaukee. They won a championship. No one can blame the Bucks. They successfully built a championship team around him and tried like hell to do it again. Weren't able to get it done. But it's a really, you know, it's a tough business. Now, the Bucs have absolutely done right by Giannis his entire career. They don't have to comply if this was a one team list. Just like the Utah Jazz did not have to send Donovan to the Knicks where he, Everybody knew that's where he wanted to go. Just like by the way, way back in the day, the Bucks didn't have to send the Kareem to the Knicks. That's where he wanted to go. He ended up in la.
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C
Well, well, Kareem. Kareem was given the choice of going to the Knicks or the lakers.
- [09:52]
B
That's not 100% true. Do you know what Kareem's list was?
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C
I thought it Was Nixon. Lakers.
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B
Good trivia question.
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C
Okay.
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B
Number one was the Knicks. He obviously is from New York. Number two, Washington.
- [10:06]
A
Yeah, Kareem was thinking about it in terms of cities.
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B
Number three, la.
- [10:12]
C
Well, the Wizards then were also. They also were. They had. I mean, they went on. They had a great run in the 70s.
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B
I mean, you know, there was this incredible story. It was this incredible story. One of the first tick tocks. I don't know if that's true, but, you know, that's what they call stories that like go over not.
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A
Not the social media app.
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B
Right.
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C
Truly never knew this about Kareem. That the wit that the Bullets were on his list.
- [10:33]
B
Yeah. So there was this great story in the LA Times in the 80s about the. The time when Kareem. I wish I could remember who wrote the story, but it was one of the first initial tick tocks and it was like a decade before. Unlike now, like Ramona writes them from like two days before about like how. I'm gonna see if I can find who wrote the story. Oh, Thomas Bonk wrote the story. Who was an all time excellent writer at the only time.
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C
Yeah.
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B
So in 19, I think 1970.
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C
75. Right.
- [11:05]
B
Yeah, but he. It was a year before he was actually traded. October 3, 1974. So the. Right. On the eve of the 20 of the 74. 75 season, they had just, I think, lost in the. They had won the championship and I think they had lost in seven games the previous spring. And Kareem and his agent called Wayne Embry, who was the general manager of the Bucks at the time. Wayne is still with us. Hall of Famer. He's now working for the Raptors. He called Wayne and they went to the Sheridan. They rented out a hotel suite. I guess this is what you did back then. You rented out a hotel suite. And they had this glorious room service dinner of beef Wellington and assorted cheeses. You know, various liqueurs. I don't know. I made that up. There was beef Wellington, though. That's why that was in the story. And Kareem said he wanted to be traded and he wanted to be traded to one of those three places. And by the way, it stayed quiet for the entire following.
- [12:10]
C
Yeah, well, that was the thing. I knew about the Wayne Embry meeting because. And I knew that they didn't trade him till the following summer. That they did somehow. That's not have anybody find out about it for a whole. I mean, I guess because those three people knew about it, didn't say anything. But that that in itself is amazing. I just did not remember and I don't think I ever knew that it was the three teams. I always thought it was the Knicks and the Lakers. And he went to, obviously the Lakers. That's fascinating.
- [12:32]
A
He didn't go to the number one destination on his list, by the way, the guy who they just waved and stretched. That was in Milwaukee as his co star the last couple years. Milwaukee wasn't on his list. Yeah, the Bucks got to get the best deal. When this eventually happens, not sitting down is still a place where he wants to go.
- [12:50]
B
Yeah. So anyway, I think the point, though you mentioned Kareem Bontemps. They. I've said this before, they traded Kareem in 1975. They did not return to the Finals. The Bucks did not return to the finals till 2021.
- [13:05]
A
Yeah, they didn't get another talent like that until Giannis.
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B
Right. So I. So you're looking at what the Bucks are doing, you know, you know, robbing Peter to pay Paul, robbing Paul to pay Sam. You know, that's.
- [13:20]
C
That's what you do if you have a player like Giannis until he's not on your team anymore. Because you, like you said, there's a very real chance they won't get a player like that ever again. So they shouldn't just trade him.
- [13:31]
A
It also puts them in a position where, look, and maybe Giannis doesn't ask out, maybe he just doesn't extend and there's one year left on his deal and the Bucks get to a point where, like, we can't just let him walk in free agency. We've got to get a return here, but they've got to get as much of a return as possible, because in the process of doing everything they can to try to win another championship with him, they are really compromised as far as their future draft stuff. This year's probably their. Their one swing with their own pick for a while, because I'm assuming the swap with New Orleans. I. I'm going to go out on limb and say the Bucks have a better record than the Pelicans.
- [14:08]
B
By the way, that's an interesting little bet considering what we have heard from the Bucks, to be honest, where within the last week Giannis said, I don't recall that, Senator. When, when Wes Eden was like, oh, my God, we had this really great conversation. And Giannis was like, I don't even know what he's talking about. And then he said, hey, I'm. I'm a buck now, but in six or seven months I could change My mind like those two statements. Let's let them sit and simmer.
- [14:40]
C
I'm with the man. I'm taking the Bucks hard in a Bucks Pelicans face off this year.
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B
Okay. I'm not. I. I would have to get odds from you, but I'm just saying Zion looks good.
- [14:51]
A
Oh, stop it.
- [14:53]
B
And we don't. We now know that Giannis was involved in trade talks in. In. In August.
- [14:59]
C
Are you got to have some. Some Joe Dumars appreciation from back in the Back in the Cavs, Pistons Rock Em sock EM robots 2000s showdowns days for the amount of latitude given the Bells this summer. He's given with lapels more latitude the rest of the NBA combined this summer.
- [15:18]
B
No, I was about 12. About 12. I saw Joe. What did you say?
- [15:24]
A
Nothing. Go on.
- [15:26]
B
When I was about 12, I saw Joe Dumars score 40 points at the Richfield Coliseum.
- [15:30]
C
John Dumars was one hell of a player, man.
- [15:32]
A
He was awesome.
- [15:33]
B
Okay.
- [15:34]
A
I hated growing up because I love, you know, I was a bandwagon opera. So I love Jordan. So I hated those Pistons teams.
- [15:40]
C
Of course you were. Of course you were a bandwagoner.
- [15:43]
A
Prepare me for this career.
- [15:44]
C
Yeah, sure did.
- [15:45]
B
So. So Atlanta gets the. The more favorable of the two picks.
- [15:51]
C
Either Bucks pick and the Pelicans pick. Correct.
- [15:53]
B
Or the Pelicans pick. I'm getting odds. Obviously. Giannis plays for the Bucks right now.
- [15:58]
A
Atlanta gets the more favorable the Bucks get, the less favorable. So the Bucks probably will end up being able to keep their pick this year is what I'm telling you.
- [16:06]
B
I know, but. And I tell you what Atlanta getting. Are we 100% sure knowing that Giannis could be traded?
- [16:12]
C
I mean, listen, I'm not going to say 100%, but what do you got?
- [16:16]
A
Let me ask you this. We're going to do the wins. Daniel wins draft here. Are you going to pick the Pelicans.
- [16:22]
B
Before the Bucks, buddy? No.
- [16:23]
A
I hope you do.
- [16:25]
B
That was good. Good job. You can be a lawyer. Good job. One of the things I'll point out, I don't want to break down the honest trade stuff. Right.
- [16:33]
C
It's not the time for that.
- [16:35]
B
But I'll just say this as I see people start talking about this, remember that the Bucks do not control their draft for the next five years.
- [16:44]
A
Also remember if it, if it's going to be talks with New York, boy, oh boy, they gave up a whole bunch of picks to get Macau Bridges. They are not. They at one point were loaded up on. On, you know, first round draft Capital that's no longer.
- [17:00]
B
Seen people say this. I've seen people say. But I'm going to tell you that the Bucks, if they have to trade Giannis, are probably going to make a player trade.
- [17:08]
A
Okay.
- [17:11]
C
Hold on. Here's what I'm going to say to that. Okay, maybe the Bucks will make a player trade, or maybe the Bucks will get offered 12 draft picks that don't include their draft picks, and they won't make a player trade. Like.
- [17:25]
A
Well, maybe they'll make the best. A player and picks trade would be my case.
- [17:30]
C
They might, but I'm just saying they have to make the best trade that's available to them. If that means they get great draft picks and they don't have their own picks, that's fine. But it, they can't be.
- [17:42]
B
Look, if it. Wait, if he waits till next summer and Giannis has one year on his contract, Giannis is going to pick his team. And if Giannis picks his team, you're going to be limited in what you can get by a triple.
- [17:53]
C
What I, what I would say is, in general, I would, I would agree with you. I would also say that if a player like Giannis is available in trade, as we saw when the Raptors traded for Kawhi, you don't know how that.
- [18:11]
A
Negotiation works for risk.
- [18:14]
C
Well, and, and also, if you get Giannis and you have the Bird rights to pay him the most money for the most years, that could end up mattering, particularly for a player who, I mean, let's all, let's all just look at it, right? So Yan Sina Kupo is, what, 31 years old right now, right? I think he just turned 31. So you're talking about a guy who will turn 31 in December. So he'll be going into his age 32 season. He'll become a free agent going into his age 33 season. So if you sign Giannis from age 33 through 37, like, the back half of that deal is going to be interesting. So I agree. Like, there's it. All I'm saying in general is, yeah.
- [19:02]
A
Turns 31 in December. Just be precise.
- [19:05]
C
Yes, yes, that's what I said.
- [19:07]
B
So, next, talking about the Kawaii trade, do you remember what the Raptors traded for Kawhi?
- [19:12]
C
I Dock a first round pick that became the 29th or 30th pick in the draft.
- [19:19]
A
And I believe they also got, they got Danny Green in that deal, correct?
- [19:23]
B
That's right.
- [19:24]
C
Yeah.
- [19:24]
B
So you know who, what the Lakers traded for Kareem Abdul Jabbar Immaculate Brian Winters is correct. The late Junior Bridgman, Brian Winters, Elmore Smith and David Myers. I don't think when you trade a guy with one year on his contract that you get the best.
- [19:43]
A
I would say things have changed a little bit since the mid-70s.
- [19:47]
C
Well, mean, again, that's not. I'm not saying they're going to get an incredible haul. I just, and I, I already think we've probably talked about this more than we should.
- [19:56]
B
I agree.
- [19:56]
C
I just think that in general, when you talk about a situation like this, a the, the law of unintended consequences. With a situation like this coming up, you just don't know where the negotiations are going to go. You wouldn't have guessed Cleveland was trading for Donovan Mitchell. You wouldn't have guessed Toronto was trading for Kawhi Leonard. We have seen these things go in different directions and again, I don't think it would be wise for Milwaukee to say, well, we don't have our picks, so we just got to get the best players we can get and then that'll be fine. Like they have to get whatever the best package of assets is in general. Maybe it is two or three players, maybe it is a bunch of picks, maybe it is some combination of both. But it it you, you shouldn't look at it if you're the Bucks and say it's got to be one or it's got to be the other.
- [20:40]
B
In a vacuum, you are correct. I agree. In a vacuum. I'm just saying that I see people going, well, the Knicks have can't trade for him. They traded all their picks. I just don't think that's necessarily true.
- [20:51]
C
Well, yes.
- [20:53]
A
It will be hard to get good value from the Knicks is what I would say. I would agree more Hoop Collective Podcast.
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B
Okay. Every year we do this on our pod where we go through in a Snake draft, which I always mess up and people think it's a bit. I don't like snake drafts. I don't do fancy drafts. Bon Temps. I really hope it me into some weird fantasy league. Two days ago. I don't know why I said yes. I did. I made one pick and I stopped making picks. I don't even know who's on that team.
- [22:57]
A
Nobody.
- [22:58]
C
You haven't made another pick yet.
- [23:00]
B
Is it my turn?
- [23:01]
A
No, it's not, but somebody's been on the clock for 11 hours. I won't call out which one of our colleagues it is. By the way, quick update, because I know people are interested. Bontems got knocked out of the old Guillotine fantasy football league a while back.
- [23:16]
B
He was hoping you wouldn't mention that.
- [23:18]
C
I had no problem. I had. I got. I had a. You had a problem week. Had a very unlucky week from an injury standpoint is what happened. Well, it's. I mean, keep it moving.
- [23:29]
A
That's enough fantasy football talk, all right?
- [23:32]
C
You're the one who brought it up.
- [23:33]
B
So we picked this Snake draft. Go ahead.
- [23:36]
C
Hold on. So we've now done this three years. Each of us has won it a different year. You are. So you get to pick first terms.
- [23:48]
A
Wait, where are you.
- [23:48]
B
No, no, I don't want to pick first.
- [23:50]
A
Wait, who won last, then?
- [23:51]
B
I gotta do.
- [23:52]
C
No, Brian, Brian, Brian. You get to. I'm saying you get to pick where you want to go first. You could pick. You want to go first, you want to go second.
- [24:02]
A
What were last year's standings?
- [24:03]
C
Brian was first, you were second, and I was third.
- [24:06]
A
Oh, you were dead last.
- [24:07]
B
Damn.
- [24:08]
A
Yes.
- [24:09]
C
Dead last out of three the year before.
- [24:10]
A
I won't medal here. You Were dead last.
- [24:12]
C
Okay. I didn't. Sure. Okay. So you get to Brian. Do you want to go second then?
- [24:19]
B
Yeah, because I'll screw it up otherwise.
- [24:20]
C
Great. Okay. So then McMahon, do you want the first pick or the third and fourth pick?
- [24:24]
A
I'll take first.
- [24:26]
C
There you go. There's the order. So McMahon can start. We'll see who has two wins this year.
- [24:32]
A
I'll take my for the moment hometown team sitting right here in. In okc. I like the Thunder's odds of having the best record in the league again. So I'm going to take the little Thunders.
- [24:44]
B
All right, so Kevin Pelton, who every year plugs all the numbers into his computer and he's dudes. He looks at ABPR metrics and kinds of stuff.
- [25:00]
A
This is a combination of his shoney stats based projections and luck adjusted regularized adjusted plus minus, better known as rapm, as most folks are familiar with.
- [25:11]
B
And it like goes over like the last three seasons. He projects players missed with injury and his Shaney stat space projections, by the way, is named after some former Sonic named Shaney.
- [25:24]
A
I don't even know for the mispronunciation.
- [25:28]
B
I think that's what it is.
- [25:29]
A
Oh, I said showing Shaney.
- [25:31]
B
Okay, okay. Anyway, he has the Thunder with the best overall record in the league. Yeah, he has him projected at 59 wins. He says no 60 win team this year.
- [25:45]
A
Yeah, 59.2. Now he did note that this is the. Oh, the line is the highest. Their ESPN BET line is 62 and a half, which is the highest since the warriors coming off. But I'm not gonna lie, I'd go over on 62 and a half, much less 59. They won 68 last year and I think they'll be better this year and I think Chet will be healthier.
- [26:14]
B
Okay. All right, so who gets to go second? Who's on the clock?
- [26:19]
C
You. You picked going second. You literally picked going second.
- [26:23]
B
I know, buddy, I'm aware.
- [26:25]
C
All right, you did ask.
- [26:28]
B
I will take the Cavs.
- [26:34]
C
Why is there even a. I mean why is there even a debate?
- [26:37]
A
Haves corner.
- [26:38]
C
Hashtag corner.
- [26:40]
B
I will say this, Pelton, he has the Cavs winning the most in the Eastern Conference. His, his numbers like that at. Let's see, where has he got him at?
- [26:53]
A
50.1. Yeah.
- [26:56]
B
50.1.
- [26:57]
A
Yeah.
- [26:58]
B
He's thinking 14 fewer wins than last year.
- [27:01]
C
The thing you have to know about these wind projections is they compressed towards the middle on both ends. So this year there's a couple. There's one particular outlier in the east in terms of how low it is. But generally the high end numbers are lower than like Kevin would say in a vacuum he would think they would be. And the. The low end numbers are higher in terms of wind totals than he would maybe think they're going to be. Well, it's. It's called the regression system. The regresses.
- [27:32]
B
It's called the rampa.
- [27:35]
A
How many math classes did you take at Saint Bonaventures?
- [27:40]
C
Not as many as the machine.
- [27:42]
A
Okay.
- [27:42]
C
Not as many as the machine.
- [27:43]
B
You know how many math classes I took in college, McMahon?
- [27:46]
A
None. I think I took. I think I took one. I did not do well on it.
- [27:52]
B
There's a stunner. ESPN bet says the Cavs over under is 56 and a half. Obviously Garland and Streuss will be start the season.
- [28:04]
A
So they. They've got them winning like 56, seven games.
- [28:09]
B
Listen, they're in the Eastern Conference. Their. Their top of their roster is still excellent even with their injuries. You know, if. If your first pick in this thing wins 50 games and I like their chances of winning 50 unless they have some sort of catastrophic injury, I think it's pretty good. All right. Bon Temps, I think you're up for a bit.
- [28:29]
C
I am up for two and I'm gonna take a couple of fairly safe picks. I'm gonna take the Denver Nuggets best player on the planet Nicole Jokic should be pretty good. And I'll take the New York Knicks again. Maybe they aren't quite as good as last year, but they have depth. They're in the East. They should be to your point a 50 win team. And you know, but at this point, early at this early on in the draft is not the time to be taking too many surprises.
- [28:58]
B
So Nuggets Elton's projection for The Nuggets is 52 and the ESPN bet over under is 53 and a half. Would you take the over under are on the Nuggets there McMahon.
- [29:13]
A
I probably would take over. I do think they are improved from last season. You know and obviously you're banking on the health of Joker but also Jamal Murray. That's where it gets. The Murray part is where it gets concerning.
- [29:28]
B
By the way, the person who's going to win this is probably someone who picks a team late where that's.
- [29:33]
A
Yeah, no, that's how. Yeah, it's a late surprising to this the team that you think is going to win 22 and wins 37.
- [29:39]
B
That's right. All right.
- [29:40]
C
Last year Brian won picking the Pistons second to last with 44. Wins.
- [29:45]
B
Yeah.
- [29:46]
C
And Portland winning 36.
- [29:48]
B
It was hardly incredible insight.
- [29:50]
A
Wow. So you got. You got JP Pickerstaff run out of Cleveland, benefited from his coach and. Way to go, Wendy.
- [29:55]
B
Right. The Knicks, by the way, in the Pelton projections. Not number two behind the Cavs. The Knicks, number three in the east will save who's number two. 47 wins is a projection. The Knicks fans are not happy to hear that. ESPN bet with the Knick fans probably contributing to betting the over 53 and a half bon temps. Do you like the Knicks over or under there? I guess you like the overs that you just picked them.
- [30:24]
C
That's a pretty good line. I'd probably guess they end up under it by a couple games, but still like they should be a team that's at least around 50 wins, if not a little bit above or below. And the goal early on is to try not to blow it by picking somebody that falls off a cliff.
- [30:42]
B
So whose turn is it?
- [30:43]
C
It's yours. I will really simple. Here's the. Here's the way to remember it. I have to make two picks. Then you make one, makes two the rest of the draft. That's it.
- [30:52]
B
Okay.
- [30:52]
C
So every. So you pick after each of us every time. It's not hard.
- [30:56]
B
Wait, me after each of you? I thought I pick after you.
- [30:59]
C
I make two picks. You pick once. Tim makes two picks. You pick once the rest of the draft.
- [31:06]
B
All right. I'm taking the Orlando Magic. Who Pelton has 49.9 wins. Number two in the east ahead of the Knickerbockers. ESPN bet 51 and a half. Bontemps. What do you think about Pelton having the Magic ahead of the the Knickerbockers?
- [31:28]
C
I'm. I'm a little surprised you picked Orlando fifth. I. I think the Magic could have a really good team, but there's a lot of risk here from an injury standpoint. You got Jalen Suggs still out with this weird knee injury that he had surgery on back in January. Still hasn't fully practiced yet. Not clear he's going to be ready for the start of the season. We all really like the Desmond Bane trade, but he has missed time over the last couple years with injuries. Let's see if he's healthy. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banquero both had oblique injuries last year. Jonathan Isaac has missed a bunch of time. Mo Wagner is still out with a torn acl. These guys should have a better offense. They haven't had a top 20 offense in the league since Dwight Howard was on the team.
- [32:09]
B
Incredibly, what a stat.
- [32:11]
C
They should have a good offense this year. They should have a great defense again. They could rack up a ton of wins in the east. But I do wonder if they end up having some health questions drag them down a little bit.
- [32:25]
A
By the way, that does remind me just a little note here. It's my turn anyways, but from OKC and I hope to have a little bit more clarity and maybe some info later on. But J Dub, Jalen Williams coming off of the wrist surgery is not fully cleared yet. I don't know exactly when he will be but you know he was getting some post shoot around work when the media was allowed in there this morning and every jump shot or free throw that I saw him take was left handed. Now he, you know, he was handling the ball with his right hand. You know, he, you know, working against some, some staffers. He was whipping passes to the corner with his right hand. I saw some layups but every free throw or jump shot that I saw him take was left handed. So you know there's still some work to be done in time for him to get fully recovered from that.
- [33:21]
B
Still took them number one. They've had some players, 29 injections is what J Dub had in his wrist during the playoffs last year to get through the playoffs and scored 40 of.
- [33:37]
A
The most important game of the season.
- [33:39]
B
Just had a couple of huge road games. He had a big road game in Minnesota too in the, in the conference finals. I think McMahon's up.
- [33:48]
A
I am, I'm going to take the Rockets despite Fred Van Vliet's injury. You know, we've talked a lot about how much we like the young talent that remains on that roster, especially Amin, Thompson and then Kevin Durant just being, I think, a phenomenal fit for the glaring void they had for a go to score. And then, you know, I'm not going to lie, I was influenced by our favorite nerd on this one, the Machine. His, his, his little calculators are high, high, high on the Golden State Warriors. Now I'll note the Machine is a mathematician, not a chemist. I've got some concerns about the chemistry there, but I'm going to take Steph Curry, Jonathan Kaminga for now and the Golden State Warriors.
- [34:36]
B
The warriors in fact ranked second in the west behind the Thunder. On Kevin Pelton's projection formula, 56 wins way above everybody in the East. ESPN BET is less excited by 10 saying 46 and a half, you could have made a steal here. Meanwhile, the Rockets bon temps. Pelton has the Rockets at fifth in the west, which he said really was. You know, he already had them, so they're over under the ESPN bet over under is 53 and a half. Pelton said his projection system still had him under before Fred Van Vliet went out. I will tell you I watched a little bit of the Rockets play against the Jazz on Wednesday night and they put up 140. I realized it was the Jazz, but offensively looked great. Sengun Alper and Shangun looked really, really good.
- [35:41]
A
I, I think as much as we talk about Ahmed Thompson taking a leap, I think Shingoon is going to take another leap. After being a first time All Star last season.
- [35:49]
B
He has 19 assists in the first two preseason games.
- [35:52]
A
I believe it's nice when you can pass the ball to Kevin Durant, by the way, that helps you get a 6.
- [35:56]
B
That's true. He was 7 of 10 shooting. Bon temps what do you think of, of these picks?
- [36:02]
C
Yeah, I mean I was kind of hope. I was more than kind of. I was hoping Golden State would get to the next rap because I was going to take them there if they were. I do think the warriors are going to be very good again, assuming they're able to stay healthy and the Rockets are. I mean, we've talked about the Rockets a ton lately for good reason. They're going to be really fascinating this year. I think if McMahon feels good about this pick in May, it's because Al Parin Chengun takes continues to improve as he has, as you just said, and especially Amen Thompson does the stuff we think he's capable of with the ball in the sands a lot because, you know, it's been interesting seeing Reed shepherd get some starting minutes in the preseason. They need a lot from him and they need a man to take a huge step forward without Fred Van Vliet like it. You know, it's going to be interesting to see how the Rockets manage that. But you know, there, there's probably, there's only one or two teams I may be more excited about, if any, to watch this year than Houston because there's just a lot going on there and it's going to be very fun to see what it looks like.
- [37:01]
A
Well, and, and preseason lineups obviously aren't written in stone, but it was interesting to see Reed shepherd starting alongside Thompson. And you know, again, I, I said it before, if you're going to maximize kind of the, the, the spacing via shooting and have a, you know, some playmaking on the floor, that's probably the way to go. It's Also probably the best way to protect Reed Shepard on the defensive end.
- [37:27]
B
All right, I, I'm going to take.
- [37:31]
A
Didn't even have to ask if it was his pick.
- [37:33]
C
I didn't have to ask what, what a thing.
- [37:35]
A
Doesn't know who he's taking. I didn't have to ask where he was going.
- [37:41]
B
The Detroit Pistons, they won it for.
- [37:46]
A
You last year and now here you go. Wow.
- [37:48]
B
I am taking pretty much Eastern Conference teams at this, at the top here, because that is my strategy because I realized that they do have to play the west teams, but they get to play half of them at home and they get to play all the east teams. And really I'm choosing here between the Pistons and the Hawks. Now. Pelton does not like the Pistons that much. He's got him way down at 8th in the east at 42.6 wins. ESPN bet has them better. 45 and a half the Pistons. I wish I 100% knew exactly how they were going to bounce back after, after having that really successful year last year. This is really a wager on Cade Cunningham and on the east, they're obviously, you know, they're hopefully going to get a bounce back from better health. A little uncertain if Malik Beasley is going to play in the NBA this year or if he's going to play for the Pistons, but yeah, that's what I'm going with. I, I'm taking. I'm a little disappointed I couldn't get my hands on the, on the Knicks too, and get all the top Eastern teams, but I'm gonna go with the Pistons.
- [39:01]
C
That's a bull pick. It's going to be interesting to see how they do. I mean, obviously they basically come back with the same team as last year. Betting on internal improvement. It'll be very interesting to see what that looks like.
- [39:12]
A
It's not the same team because Beasley was a big part of that.
- [39:17]
B
Also, Jade Nivey barely played last year.
- [39:19]
C
True.
- [39:20]
A
And, hey, Duncan Robinson, obviously, they're hoping can provide the volume shooting that opens the floor up for, for Kate in particular to work. And then they're hoping that some of these, you know, Sar Thompson, as much as we talk about his brother. I mean, same DNA, same ridiculous athleticism and as you know, missed a lot of times with the blood clot stuff. But, you know, maybe he takes the leap or, you know, one of their other, whether it's Ivy or Ron Holland, you know, one of these young kind of high lottery picks.
- [39:55]
C
Yeah, I'm, I'm, I was not expecting the Pistons to Go there. So the two teams I was looking at I will take with my next two picks which are the Hawks and the LA Clippers. And I'm making the same bet with both of them which is that they both have enough depth to overcome any injury issues and therefore try to limit my downside a little bit. Obviously we'll see what happens with all the aspiration stuff with Kawhi and whether there's any penalties. But like we've talked about, I don't anticipate that impacting the Clippers on the court this year. And we saw last year with Jeff Van Gundy on the bench, Clippers had a great defense. James Harden is a regular season wins machine. Even still and by adding Brook Lopez and John Collins and Bradley Beal and Chris Paul to the scene, they've got a ton of depth. I think they're going to win a lot of regular season games. They should be better than last year and they were a 51 team last year. Now it's with Kawhi barely playing. If he can play 50 games that would the prior chance to be even better than that. And for all the same reason you said about the East, Brian, the Hawks.
- [41:05]
B
I was trying to decide between the Hawks and Yeah, I mean adding the.
- [41:09]
C
Alexander Walker, adding Chris Esperzingis, you know the. The depth they have getting Jalen Johnson back. I think, you know, I think they're going to be very good and deep and you know, I'm excited to watch them this year. So I will take the Hawks and the Clippers and send it back to you.
- [41:27]
B
Pelton system likes the clippers has them fourth in the west at 49 and a half. 49.7 wins ESPN over under 47 and a half. Not so high on the Hawks have the Hawks down. I think it's seventh in the East 44 wins under Pelton. 46 and a half the over under ESPN bet McMahon.
- [41:52]
A
I mean both those teams have aspirations to get home court advantage in the first round.
- [41:57]
B
Nice. Nicely done.
- [41:58]
C
Thanks.
- [41:59]
A
I was proud of that one.
- [42:00]
B
Whose aspiration is higher. I know whose aspiration paycheck was highest. I am going to go with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
- [42:11]
A
An anti Belton pick but I can't.
- [42:14]
B
Yes. Does not like the Wolves. I don't know if anybody knows but the Wolves were in the conference finals last two years.
- [42:21]
A
Yeah. And by the way they're the face of their franchise is still ascending. Anthony Edwards was a better player last year than the year before. I think he really made big strides late in last season. In terms of late game decision making, I was surprised. And look, they lost Alexander Walker and I'm not going to minimize that, but I was surprised that Belton's machine was this low on the, on the walls.
- [42:53]
C
I'm gonna bust in with some breaking news. Breaking news Claxon from our guy Shamshirania. Lakers star LeBron James is sidelined for at least three to four weeks due to sciatica on his right side. He's out for the start of the season. Yeah.
- [43:09]
A
And that, that's actually straight from the Lakers. They announced that. Yeah, three to four weeks is. What are we looking at?
- [43:19]
C
Comes an hour after JJ Redick, I believe, according to our guy Dave McBennamin said that LeBron was quote on his own timeline after practice.
- [43:27]
A
Yeah, well, three. If it's four weeks, that's the first, almost two weeks of the season. Actually. It is the first two weeks of the season. I don't know. Probably not super encouraging for the oldest.
- [43:41]
B
Sciatica is something you hear from dads.
- [43:45]
A
Well, he is.
- [43:47]
B
Yeah. Oh yeah, they, they, they said it was a glute issue. So I guess that's the thing. Like.
- [43:55]
C
And by the way, by the way, the, the wording here is important. It is. He will be re evaluated in three to four weeks. So that is not.
- [44:10]
A
Yeah, he's not going to be ready to start the season. It's essentially what the.
- [44:12]
C
Well, no, but. Well, yeah, but that's what. That doesn't mean that, that means that he is checked out again.
- [44:19]
A
Right.
- [44:20]
C
In three to four weeks, not returning in three to four weeks. So you would think he's out for six to eight weeks probably.
- [44:34]
A
Well, minimum. Let's not start doing doctrine.
- [44:37]
B
No, but I'm just.
- [44:39]
C
Well, but if you're not getting, Listen, if you're getting reevaluated in three to four weeks, you probably have to tack two weeks onto that. Minimum. So you're talking at least five to six weeks. Like that's, you're talking close to December.
- [44:55]
A
The, the odds of LeBron being all NBA again are awfully long because 65 games seems to be a high, high number for him.
- [45:05]
B
Yeah, well, I, you know, I'm not a doctor, I'm not an expert. I do know that oftentimes sciatica is related to a disc issue in, in your back. And I don't know if that's the case with LeBron, but he's had over the course of his career occasional problems with the discs in his lower back. So I believe when he was in Cleveland, he A couple of times had to get like numbing injections that cost him to miss a couple, couple of weeks at a time. So I don't know if that's an option here, but certainly is going to be something that could affect early in the season. None of us have taken the Lakers yet.
- [45:42]
A
Well, I, I actually that's where I was thinking and I'm.
- [45:45]
B
Well, hold on. Just so you know, the Timberwolves are project was that, was that we're on the Wolves, right? Timberwolves projected 43 and a half wins by Pelton all the way back to eighth in the West. ESPN over under has a much higher 49 and a half.
- [46:02]
A
More hoop collective podcast after this. All right, here we go. I'm up. I'm going to go ahead and take the led by Giannis for the moment. Milwaukee Bucks here.
- [46:20]
B
All right.
- [46:21]
C
And.
- [46:24]
A
I'll still take the Lakers despite the uncertainty surrounding LeBron.
- [46:29]
B
Okay.
- [46:30]
A
I believe in Skinny Luca. The, the, he'll be motivated too, because Luke is always trying to help me out.
- [46:36]
B
This isn't a bad spot to take the bucks this late in the draft, by the way. The Bucks 44 and a half is Pelton's projection. Sixth in the, in the East. And basically Pelton's like the numbers with Giannis are really good and if Giannis is healthy and can play, they're going to get wins is what he's saying. And I don't necessarily disagree that ESPN over under is smaller. 42 and a half in this case. Pelton, one of the rare times, maybe the first time that he's got his system has them for more wins than the over under has and the Lakers. Well, you know, this is not baked in. With LeBron potentially missing a good chunk early in the season. Pelton System had them sixth in the west at 45.8 and the ESPN over under and you know, you just can't take a, a Laker bet over under seriously because their fans gonna push it out. But the Laker over under is 48 and a half. So if you, you know, the Laker over under is higher than the warriors over under higher than the Pistons, the Hawks, the Clippers, a whole bunch of teams we've selected so far. Bontubs.
- [47:46]
C
Yeah, it, I mean, I'm still processing this LeBron thing. Yeah, it, it, obviously the Laker number has always been influenced by Vegas. It's a little bit less influenced by Vegas now just because there's so much more national betting than it used to just be. Everybody going to Vegas and betting.
- [48:01]
A
But yeah.
- [48:02]
C
When you've got LUCA Doncic and LeBron.
- [48:03]
B
James, there's a few, there's a few Laker fans in the nation, though.
- [48:06]
C
Well, no, of course, of course, yes, but you're. When you have Luca and LeBron and you're the Lakers, it's obviously there's going to be a ton of attention on your team and, and yeah, look, I mean, it's going to be really interesting to see how they handle things right out the gate. I mean, they.
- [48:24]
B
Yeah. I wonder who they're going to start.
- [48:27]
A
Well, and one thing, the Lakers are top heavy. They are. There are a lot of teams in the west that have incredible depth. I would not say the Lakers are one of them. This might get your guy Larabia, the pale pit bull in the starting lineup, though.
- [48:41]
C
Yeah, I don't think this is very complicated there. I would say they're going to start, start. They're going to start Luca and Reeves and then they're going to start Rui Hachimura and they're going to start deandre Ayton and then I. They're either going to start laravia or Jared Vanderbilt. And I would guess they're going to start Jared Vanderbilt.
- [49:00]
A
Marcus Smart's a candidate, although he's having his own.
- [49:02]
C
That's true, that's true. Because I forgot about Marcus. I, he's not even. I was looking at the box score from last night. Yeah, I mean they could start Marcus, it could start Jared Vanderbilt, they could start Gabe Vincent, whoever they decide to be in that fifth spot until LeBron is back. But yeah, this, this team. I was, I was watching the, the Lakers warriors game, first half when the warriors guys were playing earlier today and I just, I don't know. I'm not sold on. Like you said, McMahon, the Lakers were a team relying on Luca being great and then LeBron being LeBron and then some of these other guys finding ways to fill in. You start to having Luke and LeBron miss games and I don't know, it's going to be, it's going to be interesting in the start of a season when they play Minnesota twice right away, they play Golden State right away, it doesn't matter.
- [49:55]
B
And if you're in the west, it's all, it's all going to be tough.
- [49:59]
C
Look, there was already going to be it. Obviously there's not the pressure if Luka hadn't signed, but there, you know how it is around the Lakers. Everything is heightened anyway. And if they get off to a slow start with LeBron sidelined like you Know, it's, it's going to get. The temperature is going to get hot quickly there.
- [50:20]
A
What I would say is Luca. Luca is healthy. They're managing his workload just because he played in Euro basket, you know, whatever, but he's healthy. He's in maybe the best shape of his career, and he's certainly as motivated as he's ever been. So this is a bet on an MVP candidate and so is the Milwaukee pick. Obviously, this is a bet on, you know, two of the top four players in the league being able to carry their teams to pretty good records.
- [50:48]
C
Yeah.
- [50:48]
B
Okay, my turn.
- [50:50]
C
Yep.
- [50:51]
B
I'm going to go with the Boston Celtics. Pelton likes them to win more games than the sportsbooks. He's projecting them at 45.6. That's 45.6. That could sniff home Courtney East. Although I'm betting on a lot of these east teams winning more games than that if I'm gonna have any hope in this. But the over under has him as a losing team. 40.5. All I'm going to say is, as we sit here today on October 9th and do this, Jason Tatum dunked in practice, but, you know, really, you're betting on, you're betting on Jalen Brown and Derrick White and then their ability to, to be a difference maker. And I will say this. Joe Missoula is running through a hard training camp. He, he knows that they need to start out, get off to a great start as much as they can. And obviously they lost three really important players. Four. Count Al Horford. Four really important players. But, you know, I, I'm going to bet on those two guys to pick up some wins. I think they'll be a winning team.
- [51:55]
C
Yeah. Jamal Carter and I did a story today on the gap year teams, the Celtics and the Pacers, both of whom are not looking at this as a gap year here. And yeah, I think, you know, look, the Celtics don't really have any proven center. They've obviously got the Tatum hole on the wing. You know, this is, you know, they're bet. You're betting on Joe Missoula finding a way to form to create some wins and pull them along, which I, I think is certainly possible in the east, especially if Tatum does decide to come back and play at some point. I'm still skeptical that will ultimately happen.
- [52:29]
A
But Me too, you know, but Bill.
- [52:31]
C
Day, the fact that he's out there moving around, he looks great. Like, that's all very positive. And yeah, like, Boston certainly is not entering the season posturing that they're going to be doing a San Antonio Spurs David Robinson injury to go try to get Tim Duncan in the draft. Like, I don't anticipate the season looking like that. They're, they're entering the year trying to win every game possible. And Joe Missoula is very excited about the challenge of trying to win as many games as they can with this group. And so is Derrick White and so is Jalen Brown. And I think as long as those guys are healthy, they're going to be pretty good, or at least they're going to attempt to be as good as they can be. We're at an interesting point of the draft. We're halfway through and I don't really like anybody that's available.
- [53:22]
B
I thought you were gonna say I don't like my team.
- [53:26]
C
The first four picks. Well, it's just, there's a lot of. I mean, we're halfway through, right? So it's not shocking, but there's just a lot of question marks for everybody in here.
- [53:34]
A
So usually we get like the fourth pick in Bonton's like all these teams.
- [53:39]
C
Well, I, I'm going with the Miami Heat.
- [53:42]
B
Okay.
- [53:43]
C
I, I like the Heat to be. Be pretty good this season. I think they're going to go over their win total. I think their, their projections around 37 and a half in terms of their over under might be slightly higher now. One of my favorite stats, one of my favorite stats to high sight from last season is The Heat were 14 and 28 in clutch games last year. I don't think that will repeat itself. They also were like second, I think, to the Wizards in terms of net rating. Second to last ahead of only the Wizards, I believe, in net rating in the fourth quarter. They just were horrendous late in games for it clearly became a mental thing as the season went along. They even talked about it. Obviously the Tyler hero injury is concerning, but they get Norm Powell back, I think they're going to be better this year. Bam. Adebayo had a very uncari, characteristically poor offensive season, so I think he'll be better. So I'll take Miami and then. I really don't have a great sense of this bike, but I'm gonna, I'm also gonna double up on the East, I think, and I'm gonna go with the Toronto Raptors.
- [54:47]
A
Whoa, listen. Has been singing those Raptors praises he likes.
- [54:53]
B
Says Brandon Ingram, baby, bring me home.
- [54:55]
C
Well, well, do I think the Raptor. Do I love the, the Raptors from a ceiling standpoint? No, but I Do think the Raptors are one of the best bets on the board to go over? Because I think they've got a lot of depth and they're going to be trying to win this year. And like I think they're going to be a team that because of their depth with Brandon in Scotty Barnes, I think they're going to get somewhere into the 40s and wins and at this point I'm just trying to not have a 20 on the board.
- [55:25]
B
So here's what I want you to understand, McMahon. That Pelton has the Raptors ahead of the Heat and one of the reasons is because his model likes the addition of Sandro Mamish Feely.
- [55:38]
A
Okay, listen. Oh my head.
- [55:40]
B
That's in the story.
- [55:43]
C
I mean he could end up playing a decent role for them.
- [55:45]
A
Oh, that's enough.
- [55:49]
B
Like okay, I think probably Brandon Ingram. By the way, projected wins by Pelton for the Raptors 40.7 ESPN bet over under 38 and a half. That's kind of a higher over under. That indicates to me that the, the money is coming in on the that.
- [56:03]
C
Over under a few weeks ago I believe was 32.
- [56:06]
A
Hey, what if 33 and 31 minutes in the preseason game, whatever night was last night.
- [56:14]
B
I will say this, unlike a lot of the teams that are in the east that are still left in the board, they're going to be trying to win.
- [56:22]
C
Yes.
- [56:25]
A
That's awesome. That, that is a unique characteristic.
- [56:28]
B
Well, what do you want?
- [56:29]
C
Well, they're, they're pretty deep and they're healthy going into the season and they're going to be competing. So you know, like I said, I'm just trying to avoid a bottom falling out team at this point.
- [56:39]
B
All right, I am going to take the McMahons. The Dallas is super deep Cooper flag injected Dallas Mavericks.
- [56:51]
C
Oh, I was thinking about Dallas too.
- [56:53]
A
I was going to take them as the official mouthpiece of the, of the France.
- [56:59]
B
Yeah, I got the Cavs. You have to take the Mavs. Pelton says Pelton likes them. Pelton says 43.6 ESPN bets as they're a losing team. 40.5. Look, I don't know when Kyrie's coming back, but I like Cooper flag. I'll tell you what, I watched some of the replays of that first game the other night and look. Caveats. Caveats. Caveats. Yeah, the Thunder looks a great feel for the game. He has a great feel for the game. McMahon.
- [57:31]
A
Well, and listen, he's NBA ready. He was NBA ready when he was 17 and was playing for Team USA select squad in a scrimmage at Bon Tim sat there and watched where he was. Not only looked like he belonged, but, you know, hooping against a bunch of first ballot hall of Famers. He's going to be, he's going to be very good. You know, we didn't need to see him scored 10 points in 14 minutes against the OKC B team to know that. Although he, you know, his value is that he does a lot of things.
- [58:06]
B
C team, buddy.
- [58:07]
A
Yeah, he does a lot of things very well. But the one thing I'll say about Kyrie, obviously, Jake, by the way, real.
- [58:13]
B
Quick, not to get you in trouble on the home front. Oh, are you making a preseason visit to the, to the Tiki while you're in town?
- [58:22]
A
No, Big Rich is in Mexico, so that.
- [58:25]
B
So your scholarship is.
- [58:27]
A
No, trust my scholarship. He doesn't need to be present.
- [58:31]
B
Oh, I see.
- [58:32]
A
He doesn't need to be present, but no, I am not. No, I am not. This is an in and out trip and I've got a morning flight, so we're going to be responsible.
- [58:40]
B
Plus, that's your official position. Should Jackson turn off the.
- [58:44]
A
No, no. The IT department has her 20 year high school reunion this, this weekend. I can't make the Saturday.
- [58:52]
B
My wife also had a high school reunion last week. I will not, out of respect to my wife, I will not say what year it was.
- [58:58]
A
The 20. The 20 year was a humble brag for old gray haired me. But. So I've got to escort her to like a little pre party Friday night. I can't make the actual reunion.
- [59:12]
B
The pre party is going to be the more intense one. That's my.
- [59:14]
A
Yeah, I can't make the actual reunion on Saturday because I've got a big. I've got Cooper Flag's first appearance in a preseason game at the aacs. He's done the Dickies arena. But I did want to just. You mentioned Kyrie. They're being. Kyrie does not want to set a timetable. Right. He's been very clear about that. JK's been very strong about pushing back against the ahead of schedule discussion. What I can tell you is, you know, he's, he's not just doing standstill shooting like in the post practice work. He's working on his ISO game. I mean it's really interesting to watch because a lot of times he's, he's got Cooper Flag there and they're taking turns and Kyrie will go and you know, he's like showing him moves and stuff but like he's doing not just like no dribble stuff and pivot stuff, but like one dribble, two dribble. Now, I'm not sitting here telling you that he's going to be back in the 2025 portion of the season, because I would be very, very surprised by that. But I'm saying there is cl. Clear progress, encouraging progress as he's returning from the torn acl. All right, all right.
- [60:25]
B
No idea. Who's up? Me.
- [60:30]
A
Well, I was really fired up because I was going to be all theatrical and I was going to do the old Texas two step here. I was going to go. I was going to go Dallas and right on down what highway, Wendy? 35I35 to San Antonio. So I'm going to start off.
- [60:47]
B
Wait a minute, wait a minute. Timeout, Jackson. Stop the clock. Stop the clock. We have arrived at the San Antonio spurs over under section of the podcast.
- [60:59]
A
You know, I love an over on the spurs, baby. Hey, Wendy's going to stay. Wimpy's going to stay healthy this year. Okay, I'm. And look, I just. I just picked Giannis, Luca Wimby. I mean, come on, I'm gonna.
- [61:14]
B
I mean, that's just.
- [61:15]
A
There's.
- [61:16]
B
Of the five, you picked Giannis, Luca, Wemby and a younger woman.
- [61:21]
A
There you go. I got a lot of talent, baby. Oh, listen, of the five, what I would say bonafide MVP candidates. I've got four of the five, so I'll, I'll take that. The other one being Joker, who the USWB got, even though he bad mouths the bench additions to the Nuggets all the time. So I am going to go with the San Antonio spurs here and then, man, this is certainly. And by the way, Pelton would disagree with me there. Pelton probably chastise me for that pick, but that's okay.
- [61:59]
C
Sheesh.
- [62:00]
A
I'll tell you what. To make it up to Pelton, I'm going to. I'm going to let him make this pick. I'm going to go for my old pal Rick Carlisle, Indiana Pacers.
- [62:13]
B
Oh, wow. Okay, well, hold on, Bon temps. The over under for the spurs is 44 and a half. Do you have a position that you'd like to take on the spurs over under this year?
- [62:28]
C
I mean, I'm taking the under on 44 and a half.
- [62:30]
B
Yes, of course he is, McMahon.
- [62:33]
A
That's a bit rich for me. That's a bit rich now. Hey, listen, if we can get it to the Pelton number, I'll go. If we can get to the Pelton number.
- [62:41]
B
If Bon negotiation begins. Pelton has started.
- [62:44]
A
He thinks they Bonton will take the under on the. On the. On the machine. Over. Under. Then I'll go with it.
- [62:51]
C
What do you say to make it fun? To make it fun. I will say that I will take under 41 and a half. So you take them go being over 500, and I'll take them 500 or lower. I think that's a fair compromise. There you go. Be a fun little statue.
- [63:09]
B
What Oklahoma City restaurant will this.
- [63:12]
A
Well, I did.
- [63:13]
B
I got it.
- [63:14]
A
I. I got him@kitchen3.
- [63:16]
C
The last one. Never got the last. Yeah, that's true.
- [63:19]
A
I did. What are you talking about?
- [63:21]
C
I forgot about lunch.
- [63:22]
A
Dinner. But it was a nice lunch. I actually had lunch there. I walked on down there today and had a look.
- [63:27]
B
It's a good.
- [63:27]
C
It's a good restaurant.
- [63:29]
B
Jackson has recorded this for posterity.
- [63:32]
C
Oh, it's fine.
- [63:33]
B
I.
- [63:33]
C
Everyone.
- [63:35]
B
I think you got a good deal.
- [63:38]
C
I did it for. I did it for goofs.
- [63:40]
A
It's all right.
- [63:40]
C
It'll be a fun little.
- [63:42]
A
I'm going to tell you this right now. If The spurs aren't above.500, I'm going to be calling for the firing of their associate head coach, Sean Sweeney. I will hold him responsible.
- [63:56]
B
All right. The Pacers, by Pelton's projections.
- [64:01]
A
Yes.
- [64:02]
B
Are fourth in the east at 45.946 wins.
- [64:08]
A
Yeah.
- [64:09]
B
Over under 38 and a half. We had some news on the pacers today. Thursday. McConnell, significant hamstring strain out a month.
- [64:21]
C
Yeah.
- [64:21]
B
Obviously, Halliburton out.
- [64:24]
A
There's a lot on Nimhard, who is a playoff monster who needs to step it up in the regular season. I think, really a chance for him to showcase what he can do, you know. And look, losing Miles Turner wasn't a great thing either. You know, Pelton loves him some J. Huff. Pelton loves, like, the random, like, 611, you know, 7 footer. Like, your casual fan won't know about it. There's a Jay Huff reference in here. But look, man, Rick Carlisle is a hell of a coach, and I've seen him take teams that weren't very good. You know, I remember he took a Mavericks team that was trash and went 41 and 41 with it. That's the year when they were under 500 for both season. All the guys grew their beards out and they weren't going to shave until they got to 500. It was like the last week of the regular season. And, you know, look, there was also some Mavericks teams that finished far under. But there were some Mavericks teams that went into old tankathon mode. The Pacers aren't going in tankathon mode.
- [65:27]
B
Ah, this is a tough one here. All right, come on. Taking Philly.
- [65:35]
C
I was going to take them. After you sniped them.
- [65:37]
A
It's an upside play.
- [65:39]
C
I mean, it's the right time to. I mean, listen, the Sixers. If the Sixers could easily win 25 games again and have injury hell, but if they're remotely healthy, they're. They're going to be a good pick here and kind of healthy. No, but I don't. I'm not saying Joel Embiid playing 70 games. I mean, like if the rest.
- [65:59]
A
Paul playing 50.
- [66:02]
C
Well, I. How about Paul Jordan?
- [66:03]
A
They're in five on five at some point.
- [66:05]
C
If Joel Embiid and Paul George play 41 games, they're a very good pick here. Like this is the right area to take them because there's no downside, really. You're the bottom 10 teams in the league and their upside is being fourth or fifth in the east, probably.
- [66:21]
B
Kevin Pelton win projection contains the following statement. Paul George no longer rates as an elite player after last season's performance.
- [66:31]
A
What performance?
- [66:33]
C
I mean, yeah, I mean, Paul had a rough season last year. The Sixers also. On top of the injuries last year, the Sixers also had an insane season from a shooting luck perspective where they just couldn't make anything all season. I. I think it's a good pick, value wise.
- [66:51]
B
Thanks, man.
- [66:53]
A
There's upside here.
- [66:55]
B
Pelton hasn't projected at 38.4, 11th in the East. ESPN bet over under 42 and a half. So I will just say Viche Edgecombe is going to win over some fans this year because this guy has good. This guy is going to be electrifying.
- [67:13]
A
Yep. So I would agree with that. He's got some.
- [67:17]
B
I think. I think Bon Temps is up.
- [67:19]
C
Yeah. So I, I was trying to decide between three teams here. I thought Philly was going to slip by Brian, so I was going to take Philly in one of these teams, but I'll take the Sacramento Kings for sort of the same reason as Toronto. They're just. I think they're going to be trying to be competitive in the regular season and between Zach Levine and Dart demarosen and Demodesa Bonus, I think they're probably going to be pretty low ceiling, fairly high floor team. And then with my other pick trying to decide what to do, I. I'm ultimately going to take the Memphis Grizzlies I was debating going with. I was debating going with another team instead. I do like the team Memphis has, but there's a lot of injuries already.
- [68:14]
A
You like that team?
- [68:16]
C
I don't. I don't like them to win 50 games. Like, I think they're like, if they were healthy right now, I would have probably taken them several picks earlier because I do think they've got a chance to be decent. They've got pretty good depth around Jon Jaren, and I think they'll fit together pretty well. But obviously John Moran's already banged up And Jaren Jackson Jr. Is, you know, on track to be ready around the start of the season. But I'll bet on the infrastructure of the Grizzlies to rack up a decent number of wins.
- [68:48]
A
And Zach Eddie also miss at least a couple weeks. If, if not multiple weeks.
- [68:55]
C
Yeah, well, might regret this.
- [68:57]
B
Two things that agree with Bond Taps. One is Pelton's projection system, who likes The Kings at 43 and a half wins. In fact, they're over. Under is 34 and a half. And. And it's about as big of a spread as we have here. Almost as big of a spread as we have in Pelton. Liking that pick. Also, guess who else McMahon agrees with. Tim Bontemps. That's LeBron Raymond James. He said in his podcast this week that he thinks that Dennis Schroeder following the lead of Tim Bontemps.
- [69:34]
A
Yes. Yes.
- [69:35]
B
Ratifying Tim Bontemps worldview.
- [69:38]
A
Yes.
- [69:39]
B
Buttressing Tim Bontemp's basketball knowledge and savvy. Buttercing on plane with his.
- [69:46]
C
Yeah.
- [69:46]
B
Saying that Dennis Schroeder is headed to the hall of Fame, not because of.
- [69:51]
A
Anything he's doing with the Sacramento Kings. Just to be clear.
- [69:55]
B
Well, I'm just, you know, the Kings are up here. Grizzlies. Actually, LeBron's quote on it was kind of. It was kind of lukewarm.
- [70:03]
A
He.
- [70:03]
B
Yeah, he's like, I've seen a lot of stats and a lot of accomplishments this summer after Euro Basket. If he's elected, I wouldn't be like, oh my God, I'm so proud. But he's put the work in, man. I don't. I don't know if I was Schroeder, I would put make LeBron my presenter with that endorsed. But it was an endorsement. Let the record show.
- [70:24]
A
Oh, who was the presenter? There was somebody. There was somebody who was the presenter this year that I'm like, oh, no. Who was Billy Donovan's coach? His college coach at Providence? Patino that's right. You know, got up there and just was telling a story about how fat Billy Donovan was when he was in freaking Providence. Like, geez, man.
- [70:50]
B
Meanwhile, Billy Donovan's probably wearing about the same size as he did when he was in Providence.
- [70:54]
A
I think smaller.
- [70:55]
B
According to that story, the Memphis pick also was liked by pelton there, but pontemps 44.6, Memphis seventh. I took the Timberwolves like a half hour ago. And Memphis is ranked ahead of them by Pelton's numbers. ESPN bet over. Under 40.5.
- [71:13]
C
Over. The machine is right.
- [71:15]
B
All right, all right. I'm going to go with another team that I think is going to try to win probably against their better against what it should be. And look, if we're drafting this far late in the draft and you can pick up somebody who's going to try their backside off to win 38 games.
- [71:34]
C
Ladies and gentlemen, I know who you're taking.
- [71:36]
B
I'd like to present you my selection very proudly. I'm going all east, all day, baby. Chicago Bulls.
- [71:45]
C
You know, I gotta say, he's trying to win 38 games. You know exactly you're talking about.
- [71:50]
A
Hey, the Bears are the monsters of the midway. The Bulls are the monsters of mediocrity, baby.
- [71:57]
B
Hey, what do you think the highly refined data savvy, AI aided pelted machine predicts for the Chicago Bulls wins?
- [72:11]
A
I know, I read it too.
- [72:13]
B
38.38.0. Not 38.1, not all these other numbers. 38 flat. To me, the best looking bet on this whole board is the over. Under 31 and a half. Ladies and gentlemen. Have you seen the Bulls for the last decade also?
- [72:30]
C
They get to play 39 or 40 games every year and they get in the plane. So why would you expect anything different?
- [72:37]
B
Yeah, I think I've got. I think it's a good value pick for. I'd like to congratulate myself.
- [72:43]
A
Yeah, we will participate. Congratulations. Good job.
- [72:49]
B
All right.
- [72:50]
A
It's my time to shine. I was actually gonna pick Bulls there. That's pretty steep, Cliff.
- [73:01]
B
We can speed up these picks here for Jackson.
- [73:03]
A
All right, we're gonna go Portland and. Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy.
- [73:09]
C
This is Portland's the other team. I was debating about Jaden Sharp, who's up for an extension. The next couple weeks was awfully, awfully good. Wednesday night against the Warriors. Interesting extension candidate. For the next couple weeks.
- [73:20]
A
All right, we're going to go Portland and then we're going to go in the. You don't benefit from being bad department. The Experts are out of the way. Here come the Phoenix Suns, baby.
- [73:34]
B
Oh, okay. I actually. Yeah, that's not a bad pick. Pelton says that Pelton is one of the stupid media who don't believe in the Suns.
- [73:44]
A
A hell of a lot.
- [73:45]
B
More than the over under the projection is 34.7. The over under 31 and a half.
- [73:51]
A
Yeah, yeah, I. I'll take 34.7 here, baby. And then the Blazers. Yeah, he's over on the Blazers, too. Over. Under 33 and a half projected wins 35.8. Hey, Shaden Sharp is lighting it on fire the other night.
- [74:10]
C
That's what I just said.
- [74:11]
B
Listen, man, I am going to be keeping an eye on the Blazers this year for Yang Hen Sun.
- [74:17]
A
Well, don't keep an eye out. Fast forward to that one.
- [74:25]
B
All right, back to you. I'd like to keep. I'd like to keep taking these teams, but I think I've reached the point. I think I've reached a point where I have to stop.
- [74:35]
A
Listen, I think. I think you got to give an old friend to call here. Let's see if you do.
- [74:41]
B
Listen, I have a team that's motivated to win here, baby, because they ain't got control of their pick. Pelton doesn't like them. The Overrider doesn't like him. But I think the New Orleans Pelicans are motivated to get into that play in. Pelton says 32.6 wins over under 30.5, but that's disregarding new svelte Zion.
- [75:07]
A
The Pelts are uglier than that little baby you pull out of the King cakes.
- [75:13]
B
Just by the way, the concept of the King cake. I don't mean to culturally insult them, but, I mean, it's. It's a tough. It's a tough thing. There's a. There's a hard piece of plastic in the middle of the cake.
- [75:22]
A
I'm telling you, there's a lot going. Especially like, you know, a lot of people that are eating those cakes are fairly inebriated.
- [75:30]
B
Oh, man, I'm thinking about getting how many teeth are cracked on the King on the baby every year.
- [75:39]
A
Yeah, it's right, you know, but, hey, you got Joe Dumars. He's gonna. He's gonna deliver you a winner, baby. Derek Queen, once he gets back from his little injuries. All rookie campaign, here you come.
- [75:53]
B
Maybe. All right, Bon Temps.
- [75:56]
A
All right, Bon Temps.
- [75:58]
B
He's frozen. I think we should pick for him.
- [76:05]
A
He says he's taking the jets and he text. He takes it in. He is taking the Jazz. He's I like that. He's taking the Jazz and the Hornets.
- [76:14]
B
I'm taking the Nets. And does that leave you or is that. Is that it?
- [76:20]
A
That it leaves me? Washington, thanks a lot.
- [76:23]
B
Okay, let it be written, let it be said. By the way, Will Hardy mentioned to our guy Michael Corleone, right. That he'd like to come back on the pod. All right, Will, we'll have you on. You're. You're Pelton with a complete insult to Will Hardy's Jazz.
- [76:39]
A
Oh no.
- [76:41]
B
With 20.2 with the projected wins. I think that's, that's not worse in the West.
- [76:46]
A
Not a complete insult. That is better than their 18.5 over under ace Bailey.
- [76:52]
B
Time, baby.
- [76:53]
A
Yeah. And then what else we gotta get. Scroll down to the East.
- [76:56]
B
The Hornets are projected wins 28 and a half by Pelton. 26 and a half over under. My seven year old son came back from basketball practice doing that six, seven thing. Six, seven.
- [77:11]
A
Squeeze one in earlier in the pod that you missed Brandon Miller.
- [77:14]
C
You guys hear me now? Am I back?
- [77:15]
B
Yeah.
- [77:16]
C
Somehow. Somehow my microphone just muted itself. I don't know how McMahon must be here.
- [77:24]
A
We would like to express our gratitude.
- [77:27]
C
Your microphone? Yeah, I'm sure.
- [77:29]
B
Pelton projects the Wizards to 14 wins Bond Temps 14.2.
- [77:35]
A
Give them full credit. Listen, do you think the Wizards are in this weird thing where they don't want to win, but they don't want to be like historically bad? Here's the thing. They. They'd like to lose a lot of games and maximize their lottery odds again, but they don't want to lose by 30. They want to at least have their young players in competitive situations where you have a chance to learn and develop. And I would say the Jazz are in the same boat.
- [78:00]
B
Listen, Cam, if you have. I'm going to give you free advice. If you have fantasy, get Cam Thomas. That dude might try to average 35 this year.
- [78:12]
C
I'm actually not sure I would say that because I don't know if not, I. I'm not sure how much.
- [78:19]
B
Well, I.
- [78:19]
C
They've drafted like. They've drafted like 19 perimeter players this year and Cam Thomas is clearly not in their long term plans. I. He's going to shoot a lot when he's on the court. I just. I don't know what kind of role he's going to have all season.
- [78:35]
B
Well, I didn't say take him with the number one overall pick.
- [78:38]
C
True.
- [78:39]
B
Here. And this is. Will be our sign off because we've had enough. Allow me in the sign off hopefully.
- [78:45]
C
Get to MSG by tip off tonight for Wolves Nicks.
- [78:48]
B
All right, I am going to read Kevin Pelton's paragraph on the Wizards being projected to win 14.2 games. Given how my model tends to compress the expected standings to avoid bad misses, this is a shockingly low projection. In fact, it's the worst I've calculated for a team since adopting this model in 2010.
- [79:14]
C
Pelton and I talked about this. The Wizard.
- [79:17]
B
After trading away veterans at the deadline and again this past summer, Washington doesn't have a single player who rates in the league's top 1:30.
- [79:28]
A
They've got poor C.J. mcCollum and Chris Middleton. Golly. I mean, listen, the 1st and the 15th of every month are going to be good for those guys.
- [79:37]
C
Other than that, they'll be okay.
- [79:40]
B
Yeah, they're still paying Marcus Smart, I think, money to do that.
- [79:44]
C
They are.
- [79:45]
B
A lot. All right. It was enjoyable. We will remember who we drafted at the very end of the season when Bontems tells us. Thank you to Jackson for putting this together. Thank you to Bon Temps. Thank you to McMahon. Thank you for listening and watching the Hoop Collective. We'll talk to you. Oh, by the way, podcast note. Oh, we're going back to three, baby. Are we back to three? All right, so Monday, Wednesday, Friday, starting next week.
- [80:18]
A
Yeah.
- [80:19]
B
Should be interesting. I got a double head. We got. I'm gonna be in LA on Sunday for a double head. All right, talk to you later.
- [80:26]
A
Adios, amigos. SA.