← Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
NBA Eastern Conference Win Total Reaction
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Hoop Collective: NBA Eastern Conference Win Total Reaction
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- [00:02]
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- [00:36]
Brian Windhorst
Hello and welcome to the Hoop Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA which we are doing at a time that is not exactly recent. Let's just be honest. It's July, we're August, we're just putting some stuff in. Some people are going on vacation. Joining me from Los Angeles, California, where he's still working is Tim Bontemps.
- [00:57]
Tim Bontemps
Hello everybody.
- [00:58]
Brian Windhorst
Joining us from the Pacific Northwest at a beautiful cabin in the woods, spam McMahon.
- [01:05]
Tim MacMahon
Howdy partners did some bioluminescent kayaking the night before we recorded this. So not a whole lot.
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Brian Windhorst
It sounds like it could have been hallucinogenic aided.
- [01:18]
Tim MacMahon
No, it could have been. It was not. I did learn that there are some mushrooms that have bioluminescence in them actually, and one of which is even edible and not of the hallucinogenic kind. Also learned that the back seat of the kayak, the little tandem kayaks where you control the rudders, 6 foot 4 doesn't fit in that real well. So we had to have a, we had to have a mid ride shift.
- [01:45]
Brian Windhorst
I see. Did, was there any, were there any bodies lost over the edge on the mid ride ship? That's the.
- [01:50]
Tim MacMahon
No, but nobody's lost. But One of my 12 year olds learned several new words. Actually no, he knows them all. He just heard.
- [01:59]
Brian Windhorst
I bet he didn't learn them all right, so today we are going to take a look at the ESPN now that the 90 something percent of the off season has has been completed. The the over under win totals are updated by ESPN bet and we're going to take a look at the Eastern Conference and see how we think it's going to shape up based on the way ESPN BET sees it. It's always a fun thing we do every year. So we'll start today with the Eastern Conference and we're just going to go straight down alphabetical order. I think that's the best way to go. So we'll start with the Boston Celtics. Bon Temps. The Boston Celtics over under for this upcoming season. The expectation is that Jason Tatum will be out for the entire year. They traded away some key players. Drew Holiday at Chris Apps Porzingis. Jalen Brown has the off season. Knee Surgery is 43 and a half. I know. Brad Stevens, their team president, said, you know, recently when he. When they gave an offseason update on their team, he said, we're still a playoff team. And I think that's true because Eastern Conference is not super deep. And this. This over under implies that the ESPN BET believes that they are still a playoff team with. With. Without Jason Tatum.
- [03:10]
Tim Bontemps
Not to. Not to be. Not to. To poke at you a bit, but if we're going in alphabetical order, I think we skipped a team in Atlanta.
- [03:17]
Brian Windhorst
Oh, the Atlanta Hawks.
- [03:19]
Tim Bontemps
Why you do Boston first? I. I mean, you are correct.
- [03:23]
Brian Windhorst
That is okay.
- [03:25]
Tim Bontemps
I am correct. A comes before B. I am aware.
- [03:27]
Tim MacMahon
Well, no, he. I see what he did. Jackson, what did you do?
- [03:32]
Brian Windhorst
No, Jackson gave us Atlanta by division. It was my fault.
- [03:35]
Tim Bontemps
Well, Jackson hasn't seen alphabetical order by division in the.
- [03:38]
Brian Windhorst
I accept full responsibility, and because of that, I want to be held accountable. And Jackson, I would request that you do not edit that out.
- [03:47]
Tim MacMahon
Well, also to make it easier. Let's go. Let's go alphabetic by division, because there's no way we can put these. Now.
- [03:54]
Tim Bontemps
Jackson just, with some technological wizardry, immediately fixed it. So now it's flipping.
- [04:00]
Brian Windhorst
We're gonna start with the Celtics, and then we're gonna do the Hawks.
- [04:02]
Tim Bontemps
All right. Yeah, that's fine. So, yeah, I'm doing some quick math here. So Boston's what, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5? Yeah. So they're tied. They're tied for six with another team we'll get to later.
- [04:16]
Tim MacMahon
So, God, we're figuring out alphabetical order and counting.
- [04:21]
Tim Bontemps
Wanted to take a quick look at.
- [04:22]
Brian Windhorst
Where they sit early on the West Coast. Look, the.
- [04:26]
Tim Bontemps
The Celtics are in a weird spot, obviously, because they still do have a couple of really good players. And then they also have some fairly giant holes on their roster. I mean, right now, their center rotation is Xavier Tillman, Luke Garza, and Nemus K, which is a bit of a drop off from Christas Porzingis and Al Horford and Luke Cornett, all of whom are going to be playing elsewhere next.
- [04:51]
Tim MacMahon
Season, we think for Horford.
- [04:55]
Tim Bontemps
Celtics have said Horford's not going to be in Boston, so it's a matter.
- [04:59]
Tim MacMahon
Well, we think he's playing. Although by this time, things might be wrapped up. But anyways, go on.
- [05:03]
Tim Bontemps
But, yeah, I mean, if I had to. If I had to make a bet on the Celtics one way or the other, I would probably bet the under because they're One, Jalen Brown and or Al Horford are a. Al Horford, Jalen Brown, or Derrick White injury away from just not having very much firepower on the court at all. And they have a lot of young players who I think they're going to be playing a lot of minutes, and we're not going to see Jason Tatum this year. I could certainly see this being some. Some version of a, you know, a pause for the franchise overall. I think they're probably going to try to save more money right now. They're currently just into the second apron, so.
- [05:46]
Brian Windhorst
Over or under?
- [05:47]
Tim Bontemps
I said under.
- [05:48]
Brian Windhorst
Oh, sorry.
- [05:49]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, no, I. I think there's enough reasons to think that they're going to go the other way. They could, you know, Jalen Brown and Derek White could play the games and be awesome, and they could, you know, maybe win 45, 46 games. But I think it's more likely that they have some injuries, they play a lot of these young guys a lot of minutes, and they're. They're probably still in the play in any way, because I don't really know if it's possible to get into the bottom five of the east, given how bad some of these teams are going to be. But I think it's more likely they're under.500.
- [06:23]
Tim MacMahon
Yeah, I'll take the under, and I will take it in part because the Celtics have another very tough opponent that will be on their schedule every single night. And that's human nature. These are guys who are. Obviously, they're guys who have won a championship, guys who are accustomed to competing for a championship, and guys who are showing up to training camp fully aware that there is no way in hell they're going to have that opportunity this season. You know, they'll completely understand that this is a gap year, and I just think that's going to be tough to get amped up and to maintain their focus for 82 games knowing that this is a season that ultimately is going to lead to nowhere.
- [07:11]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, so the thing about. And this is going to be repeating itself as we talk about this. Bonten just mentioned it. There are some teams in the east that are just weak, and so you're going to get some wins whether you. Whether you are relative or not. I suspect that Jaylen Brown, assuming his knee is okay, is going to have a massive season, and I think he's going to just carry them to a bunch of wins. I think he's going to see as an opportunity this year to, like, show everybody what he can do. And I agree that they're probably not going to have enough, but I think that he is going to be a difference maker in a lot of games. So I'm actually inclined to nose over because you're going to see Jaylen Brown. I expect a huge year from Jalen Brown. I will advise my friends who asked me about fantasy stuff, prioritize getting Jaylen Brown this year again, assuming he looks okay in the preseason. You know, I don't know if he's even going to 100% be able to start right there because you know, as you know, I believe there's no such thing as a minor knee injury. Okay, moving on. Let's go back to the the Atlanta Hawks, who had a huge offseason in terms of value out versus value in. They traded Terrence Mann, one net first round pick and I think one or two seconds and they ended up bringing back Chris Epps, Porzingis, Nikhil Alexander Walker, Luke Kennard and that 2026 unprotected first that they got in that draft night deal where they moved back 10 spots.
- [08:48]
Tim MacMahon
In the draft, which might be the most valuable thing they added. They added two really solid starters.
- [08:54]
Brian Windhorst
Now that's not fair because they like to get Nikhil Alexander Walker. They also used an existing trade exception. So it's I'm not given the whole landscape there, but from what they traded out to what they brought in, they've really significantly upgraded and their win total reflects it. McMahon 46 and a half is what ESPN BET says is the over under for the Atlanta Hawks.
- [09:20]
Tim MacMahon
Yeah, and I think Atlanta had one of the best off seasons, arguably the best off season in the Eastern Conference. Trying to think where the argument would be. I'm gonna say they had the best off season in the Eastern Conference. Are they seven wins better than last season? Look, obviously poor Zingis's health is going to be a major factor here, but I do think that over the course of a couple years they've done a phenomenal job of putting a cast around Trae Young that, you know, it's not just a supporting cast but it's a cast that can protect him on the defensive end. And Trey Young, for his defensive flaws is still one of the best offensive engines in the league. I would trend over on this one.
- [10:05]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, I'm going to go over too. There are some questions here health wise. Let's see where Trey Young's Achilles is at this year. The Achilles tendonitis he had a lot of last year I think is a cause for concern. You know, they are going to be Relying on some young players. We'll see how they develop. Zachary Rishi, will he take a step forward in his second year? Can Jalen Johnson stay healthy? He is a good player, but he has had some injury issues. Christasperzing obviously has had his fair share of injury issues. He's got a clean bill of health after the stuff he had in the spring and by all accounts are going to play in Euro basket and Hawks feel good about where he's at. So, you know, so that's all there. I'm going to take the over because of what we talked about with Boston. There's a lot of wins to be had in the East. I think the Hawks are going to be a top four team in the East. I don't think the fourth team in the east is going to weigh 45 or 44 wins. So I will take, I will take the over there with, you know, with the injury question still in mind.
- [10:57]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, I'm going to take the over. I was going to point out, in case you forgot about Jalen Johnson, he averaged 19, 10 and 5 last year on 50% shooting before he hurt his shoulder, only played 36 games. And as you pointed out, he has been, he's had injuries. He's only averaged 46 games the last two years. But this is a major uprising player there. So you're almost bringing him back. You know, he almost feels like a little bit of a new player as well. But obviously the health. Another thing to watch with them is whether or not they get Trey Young into an extension. They're not going to give him a max extension. So will he accept something less than that? We'll see. That'll be something that'll be a factor going into the season. But I'm also going to go over, you know, Dyson Daniels, another guy that got to get signed, obviously had a, had a breakout year last year. Okay, back to alphabetical order. The Brooklyn Nets, we'll start with you, Bon Temps. The Nets over under is 21 and a half. We don't know whether they're going to have Cam Thomas though. I feel like one way or another he's going to end up staying in a Nets uniform. He is obviously a key scorer for them. They've got a metric ton of rookies, five first round picks. I am not going to get aggregated again over what people are saying about their first round picks. I will just say that in summer league their most impressive young player in many cases was Drew Timmy Shout Out. Pierce High was not one of their first round picks but 21 and a half bond temps.
- [12:34]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, this one is tough because the Nets obviously are going to be bad. Question of how bad are they going to be? I will, I will take the under simply for what you just said. They're going to be playing a ton of rookies, a ton of minutes. A lot of these rookies are interesting players but there a lot of ball handlers who are not good shooters. They're going to be playing a lot of young guards in general which is.
- [13:02]
Brian Windhorst
That's how you lose in the NBA. Young guards.
- [13:04]
Tim MacMahon
Oh yeah, yeah. Especially mediocre young guards.
- [13:08]
Tim Bontemps
Well, Jaeger demon their the 8th overall pick. I'm sure he'll be starting at point guard. I'm sure he's going to have the ball in his hands a ton. That is going to be good for his development and it's going to be good for losing games and trying to get a top five pick which they really need to do in this year's draft. Cam Thomas will be back. I'm almost certain it will be on the qualifying offer at some point.
- [13:27]
Brian Windhorst
If that is the case if Cam Thomas comes back on the qualifying offer, I'm also going to suggest to my friends who play especially I have some friends who like have points only leagues.
- [13:37]
Tim MacMahon
I was going to say Mr. Thomas field goal percentage and part of it.
- [13:40]
Brian Windhorst
Cam Thomas on the qualifier on a bad team. Get that gentleman on your fantasy team.
- [13:45]
Tim Bontemps
Oh, so that I will take the under. It would not shock me if they go over. Obviously Jordy Hernandez for Fernandez did a tremendous job last year and showed he can really coach. But you know this team is. This team has to be in the top five next year. I suspect this year is going to go like Utah did last year where they are going to do everything they can to make sure that they are if not the worst record in the league right there instead of being somewhere in the middle of the lottery like they were this year.
- [14:12]
Tim MacMahon
Yeah, I'm going under because it better be. And the Utah comparison to me is exactly right. Right down to Jordy. Fernandez has already proven that he can coach. Matter of fact, he's proven that he can coach a little bit too well for where the Brooklyn Nets are in their rebuild. Just like Will Hardy did in Utah. You've got to make sure that he's not capable or not allowed in. Maybe some cases of putting lineups out there that can actually win games. It's just where they are. They don't have a player to build around. They've got to find that.
- [14:46]
Brian Windhorst
How dare you. Michael Porter Jr. Has just arrived in town. He's very excited.
- [14:50]
Tim MacMahon
They've got to find that guy in the draft.
- [14:52]
Brian Windhorst
By the way, did you see that the Nets posted a video of Michael Porter coming to their practice facility for the first time, which is, it's a great practice facility in Brooklyn. It's got a great view of the Manhattan skyline. And did you guys see this video? Oh, so Porter comes in and, you know, it's like it's a team propaganda video. They're like, you know, he is properly, like impressed with their practice facility and he's like, wow, you guys got two courts. Which, which was more of a commentary on the Nuggets. You have sort of this antiquated facility that's like on the fourth floor of the ball arenas.
- [15:23]
Tim MacMahon
Exactly. That's interesting.
- [15:26]
Brian Windhorst
So I don't think like he, I don't think he was meaning to take.
- [15:30]
Tim MacMahon
A shot at the, he's never, he's never been.
- [15:32]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, listen, I know he's never seen a practice facility with two. I'm just kidding. I'm sure he's seen. I'm just saying that's, that's what he want me to say. That's what he said.
- [15:39]
Tim MacMahon
Yeah. No, it's like the Rockets, when they open their last year, they went from having just this little one court in the arena to this palace of a practice facility. Yeah. So I, I, I don't, we don't need to discuss this just a whole lot, but they'll be bad. And, and again, the other thing I would say it, they better be really bad now and, or really lucky in the lottery because those 27, that 27 draft, guess what? Oh, the Rockets still have swap rights.
- [16:08]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, their, their plan when they made the trade last summer was to get control of their picks for two years. And as soon as they did that, it was pretty obvious they were going to intend to be bad for two years. And considering that they haven't even spent all their cap space as of the recording of this particular podcast indicates that that intends to be so. I think the under. And if they go over 21 and a half, we'll congratulate them. But it will be by accident.
- [16:30]
Tim MacMahon
More Hoop Collective podcast after this.
- [16:34]
Brian Windhorst
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- [17:02]
Tim Bontemps
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Brian Windhorst
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Tim Bontemps
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Brian Windhorst
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- [18:07]
Brian Windhorst
All right. The Charlotte Hornets, 24 and a half McMahon. They are thriving. My friends in Charlotte are looking and I mean, seriously, I'm not. This is not. Ironically, they are looking for summer league champions gear. They are desperate. I have, I have a, I have a good friend in Charlotte who has his company has season tickets in the fifth row and he loves going to the games. But he's really trying to make his son a Hornets fan and it's a hard sell. So he is hoping that they improve. But 24 and a half they have, you know, they have added to their roster a little bit, but they are excited about their, about their draft. Obviously Con Knippel had a big summer league.
- [18:52]
Tim MacMahon
My son went to McNeely, another brief Pierce product.
- [18:56]
Brian Windhorst
They are very excited about having gotten Liam McNeely with the 29th pick, which they got from Mark. The Mark Williams trade. My son went to a Creighton basketball camp.
- [19:06]
Tim MacMahon
Yes.
- [19:07]
Brian Windhorst
And he was very excited that Ryan Kalkbrenner came back.
- [19:11]
Tim MacMahon
Okay.
- [19:12]
Brian Windhorst
Attended the camp as a newly crowned summer league champion. So. But anyway, McMahon, 24 and a half for the Charlotte Hornets.
- [19:20]
Tim MacMahon
Tough one. I did, I did realize after our last pod, we did not mention the Charlotte Hornets as a potential option or as an option for Chris Paul, which they were. But Chris Paul wanted to Be a father at home, not a babysitter in his hometown. And the Charlotte Hornets are a team that's desperately in need of babysitting. That's why, despite having one of the an incredible talent in, in l' Angelo Ball is the face of the franchise. You're sitting there looking at an over under of 24 and a half.
- [19:56]
Tim Bontemps
What I'm saying, liangelo ball, it's early.
- [20:00]
Tim MacMahon
Lamello. God, it's early on the west coast. Well, leangel Ball, I'm, you know, hey, his, his music plays at the games. God, I was like, it's not. Anyways, Lamelo and I've had my, my moments discussing Lamelo and I don't think he's proved me wrong to this point. I just feel like the Hornets are a franchise in search of an identity and I don't think Lamelo is going to be part of that long term identity. So I guess as a long winded way of saying 24 and a half feels about right for me, I'll take the over because I think it's going to be hard not to win more than that in the, in the east. They have any kind of relative health.
- [20:39]
Tim Bontemps
I'm going to take the under because they, like the Celtics, basically have no centers on their roster. I think Ryan Carbrenter might start because I think the only centers they have are he and Mason Plumlee at the moment. And I just, I think this team in general, like, let's see if Lamelo can play more than 45 games. He again missed a bunch of games last year. You know, they still feel like they're trying to get, you know, obviously we're one of these teams that fell in the lottery some that was hoping to jump up all the way. I do like Khan, but yeah, we're hoping to get Cooper flag or someone like that in the draft. So yeah, I, I will reluctantly take the under because 24 and a half, I think is a very good, very good number. But they do still feel like they're at the start of whatever they're trying to do, which, you know, I think to your point, McMahon, one of the more interesting things to look at going forward is sort of what is the Lamelo ball situation in Charlotte going to be? And I think, you know, as this year plays out, that will be something we'll begin to probably start to figure out because if, let's say they do win 30 something games and LaMelo plays 65, 70 games and is good and healthy, that'll look one way if there fits another 45 game season for him and they win 20 games, it might look a different way.
- [21:56]
Tim MacMahon
I think if Lamelo plays really well early in the season, it could be an interesting trade deadline.
- [22:01]
Brian Windhorst
Lamelo has averaged 35 games played over the last three years. Now I recognize that there was some draft positioning which happened again this last year. I mean they lost 12 of their last 13 games. You know, sometimes you have teams that are like, you know, try to build up, you know, going into next year. Like you will talk about Toronto, about their finish. It was not a strong finish. And a. Brandon Miller only played 27 games last year. He looked very good in those 27 games. We played 27 games. So they're going to still take in the teeth a lot. I tend to think they might slightly go over 24 and a half. But it's so their talent, if they're fully healthy dictates they probably should win some home games at least. But again, it's hard to bank on Lamelo when he's just can't stay on the court.
- [22:48]
Tim MacMahon
So it's hard to bank on him when he's on the court too.
- [22:51]
Brian Windhorst
Well, he's tough to watch, man.
- [22:53]
Tim MacMahon
I mean the 32 foot one legged, you know, threes like, well, I know and fouling out when you don't guard anybody.
- [23:00]
Brian Windhorst
I know Charles Lee was trying to bring a certain style of play this last season and at times it felt like it was leaning into some of Lamelo's bad habits. At times he didn't play that many games. But there was a few times when I watched them and I was just like I, I, this is, it's, it's tough, it's a tough watch at times. Obviously when he gets hot it's, but.
- [23:24]
Tim MacMahon
He'S an extraordinary talent. He might end up having a heck of an NBA career. I don't think it'll be in Charlotte.
- [23:30]
Brian Windhorst
Well, you know, you, before last season I was kind of bullish on Lamelo and I think the three of us got a little minor back and forth about it where I was sort of saying I think he can do better. He, his performance last year did not help that position. Let's just, let's put it that way. So I'm going to take a step back from that Even though I think that there are, there are their talent dictates that they're more than a 24 win team, but. All right. Chicago Bulls. One of our.
- [23:54]
Tim MacMahon
Apology accepted. Apology accepted.
- [23:57]
Brian Windhorst
One of our favorite teams to discuss their competence. 32 and a half. Bon temps.
- [24:03]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, I'm taking the under. I think the Bulls are going to be looking to be pretty bad this.
- [24:10]
Tim MacMahon
Year and never do that though.
- [24:13]
Tim Bontemps
Well again they could maybe get the 10 seed with 32 wins in the east and oh my God, that's a.
- [24:21]
Brian Windhorst
Sad statement that I can't dispute.
- [24:24]
Tim Bontemps
I just think it's going to be hard for them to get a lot of wins with the team that they have. Like there's just not, there's not a lot of talent on this roster. You know, Josh Giddey we assume will get extended at some point and be in Chicago. We'll see if he and Kobe, he will be on the team. We'll see if Kobe White makes it on the team through the whole year. He's going to be a free agent next summer. He will not be extended because he's making too little money to get extended the number I think that he would take. So I just think that in general the Bulls will try to be competitive. As you said McMahon, that tends to be what they do. I just don't think that with the team they've got and probably playing modest Pizzazzell is a ton of minutes, probably playing Noah Essingay, their first round pick this year, a good amount of minutes. You know, if Nick Vucevich misses any time at all, they don't really have any death behind him. I could go either way on it, but I'm going to take the under because I just think they're probably going to end up being higher in the lottery than maybe they normally intend to by default this season.
- [25:24]
Tim MacMahon
They finished the season like they were winning games and you know, Levine trade. Yeah. And Giddy was putting up numbers. So I hear what you're like. The roster is not an impressive roster but they were able to win games with this core last year. You know, they went on that nice little stretch where you know, highlighted by Giddy hitting the half court buzzer beater to beat the Lakers. I don't think they're going to be anything close to a contender but they were a 39 win team last year and I don't think they'll be dropping off. Like I don't think there's a major drop off coming from that.
- [26:01]
Brian Windhorst
The Bulls, Tom Thibodeau was the Bulls coach for five years and I and granted I understand that the team had a lot of talent. Derrick Rose's MVP in there those five years they averaged 51 wins. Okay. Tom Thibodeau has now not been the coach for 10 seasons. These are the Bulls win totals for those 10 seasons. Now, some of these, actually, I'm just going to give the win loss record because obviously there were some Covid affected seasons. 42 and 40, 41 and 41, 27 and 55, 22 and 60. 22 and 43. 31 and 41, 46 and 36. That was Billy Donovan second year. This is the last three years. 40 and 42. 39 and 43. 39 and 43. That is hell. That is.
- [26:47]
Tim MacMahon
Yeah. No, they're in purgatory.
- [26:49]
Brian Windhorst
That is not where you want to be. And their maneuvers in the interim have neither leaned into getting farther down or leaned into getting much better. And so they won't even let Billy Donovan out of purgatory. Like he could have gone to the Knicks, and they won't even let him go because they won't even admit their situation. So I'm afraid to say, for Bulls fans, I agree with McMahon. It'll probably be over 32 because this team is addicted to this mediocrity and their actions.
- [27:27]
Tim Bontemps
I will root for being wrong on that one because that will make me happy if they end up 38 and 44 and.
- [27:33]
Tim MacMahon
Well, but they refused. They refused to rebuild, right? I mean, that might be their. Their best marketing slogan. Refuse to rebuild. Like it's some source of. Seriously, like it's some source of pride. They are stuck on the mediocrity treadmill. They are the definition of a purgatory team. And Jackson's better at looking things up than me. 17 and 13 since February. 6. You know, since the Levine trade for the Bulls, I was able to look up the. The final quarter was 15 and 6. And look, it's, you know, the final quarter of the season. That's when the Tank of Palooza is in full bloom. And so the Bulls are like, racking up wins against some teams that are tanking. But the point is, the Bulls will rack up wins against teams that are tanking late in the season because they're. You can too principled if you want to be polite about it or too proud or too dumb to rebuild.
- [28:30]
Brian Windhorst
All I'm going to say is I read all of those numbers, all of those records. And this off season, the Bulls extended their front office and Arturis Kanishevich, their team president, asked the fans for patience. Okay, next up, Cleveland Cavaliers, 55 and a half. That is the largest in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs, coming off an off season where they lost Ty Jerome in free agency, traded Isaac Okoro or reserve for Lonzo Ball to be basically tied. Jerome's replacement and signed Larry Nance. So they did some maneuvering on their bench, will bring back their whole starting unit which is now going to be a lot more expensive because Donovan Mitchell's contract extension kicks in. Evan Mobley Supermax contract kicks in and they are a second apron team. They're pretty much locked into this roster for this season and 55 and a half they are the favorites right now. Bon Temps to win the Eastern Conference.
- [29:35]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, I'm taking the over. I think they're I still have some concerns about them as a playoff team as we saw last year in the playoffs. However, they are built to win a ton of regular season games and the east stinks. So I think they're going to win a ton of regular season games and I think they got a very good chance to be the one seed again.
- [29:52]
Tim MacMahon
I'd also take the over. I think that over under is probably deflated because of the epic playoff disappointment that somebody here struggled to admit was actually a disappointment. They, you know, it's credit to them.
- [30:08]
Brian Windhorst
That you're talking about me because of course was a disappointment.
- [30:11]
Tim MacMahon
No, no. Was it when they were on the brink of elimination? We had some battles. Wendy, we don't need to revisit here. Let me just take my little cheap shot and we'll keep it moving.
- [30:21]
Brian Windhorst
They were they clearly lost to a better team.
- [30:25]
Tim MacMahon
Okay, if we don't need to re relitigate or revisit. All right, let me take my cheap shot and keep it moving. But I agree with Bond temps as reluctantly as I utter that line that, you know, they'll they'll probably be the 1 seed in the Eastern Conference again and they'll do win more than 55 and a half games.
- [30:42]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, look, they, they probably will not go as hard in the in the regular season this year. And you know, they had one of these seasons where there was a number of games that could have gone either way that went their way. And so 64 wins is hard to see repeated. But they're not I don't unless they're going to have significant injuries, I don't see them winning nine fewer games. So I'll go over on that. And again, as Bontem said and I I predict we will be saying into next season frequently their regular season output will not matter as to what except what happens in their postseason. They have now graduated beyond where they can be congratulated for regular season success. But that's a good place to be sure. All right. Detroit Pistons, one of last year's ascendant teams, surprised us how good they were no longer on the surprise generally kept their team in place. A big factor for them will be getting back Jaden Ivy. They did have some cap space that they had the option to maybe go out and big name shop. But Trajan Langdon, their team president made it clear his priority was, you know, keeping that team, you know, in place. Anyway. McMahon, 45 1/2 ESPN bet for the Pistons.
- [32:04]
Tim MacMahon
I, I like them as a team that will continue to improve. They did lose some key bench pieces. You know, they, they lost Malik Beasley to his own stupidity. They lost Tim Hardaway Jr. Who they, you know, essentially allowed to leave sign a minimum with Denver and then they lost Schroeder. Jay N. Ivey, I think more than makes up for the absence of Schroeder. They brought in Duncan Robinson to, you know, replace Beasley is that volume three point shooter and then and the gravity that creates a space that creates for Cade Cunningham in particular. But I'm gonna bet on continued improvement from Cade Cunningham who proved he is a legit face of a franchise last year who's a no. I think ascending superstars fair. I think Jaylen Duran is one of the most dynamic young bigs in the league who is also going to continue to improve. Ivey was playing well before he went down. So I, I like this young core. I, I like the job J.B. bickerstaff obviously did last year and I think they'll bump it up a few more. Assar Thompson I think also is going to continue to improve. So I think they bump it up a few more wins.
- [33:17]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, I think this over under is right about in the right place. I'll be curious to see if they can push forward a bit or if they, if they sort of have a reset season to some degree after jumping up as much as they did last year. Still have some concerns overall about their offense around Cade and you know, just the overall setup of their team. But they have a young team that is going to be pushing to win games and Cade is awfully good and J.B. bickerstaff has shown an ability to help young teams continue to improve. So I'm going to take the over also simply for the fact that again, when you look at this middle section of the east, there's not a lot of competition for them and I think it's hard to see them finishing out of the top six because of that. And so I'll take the old Jaden.
- [34:08]
Brian Windhorst
Ivey is one of the more interesting players to watch in the Eastern Conference last year. He really was looking like he was going to ramp up and be kind of the player that they thought they were drafting him high in the lottery. And so what he is able to do, you know, they also, when he got injured last year, they didn't rule out that he could come back at the end of the season. In fact, they didn't even apply for a disabled player exception because they thought he was going to come back. But the point is by the time the season starts, he should have been fully healthy for six months. So I expect him to really get going and he, he's a guy that if he, you know, continues elevating can really be a difference making player because the, that backcourt play could be big. The other thing I'll say is they are a team that is upwardly mobile. If they've got a lot of flexibility and they have a draft capital, they are a team that could go hunting for a midseason upgrade. Now they have to pay these young guys. They already paid Cade. They have to sign Ivy. They don't have to, but you know, to extend Ivy. So they may be careful about that. But this, this contract they gave to Duncan Robinson is one of the more interesting ones we've seen in a while because it was reported, you know, three years, like 47, 48 million but it's extremely flexible. It's guaranteed this year and then the next two years, 15 million each year is non guaranteed. So if he's great, they can hold on to him. If they spend a bunch of money and need to clear the cap off, they can just let them go. So it was actually pretty, a pretty inventive contract that was actually a, you know, a pretty, you know, the Heat had an interesting off season which we'll talk about here in a second. But I like the Pistons slightly over this as a bet on, on Jaden Ivey's continued growth. Okay, coming up next, the defending Eastern Conference champion Indiana Pacers. Halliburton will miss the season. They lose Miles Turner in basically they don't want to pay him. You know, he walked for more money to the Bucks. Let me take this back because I can get a call. They made him an offer that would have taken him into the luxury tax, but they got beat by a higher offer that was market value. They may not have agreed with market value, but it was market value and they're to try to replace him by committee. And so basically they lose their point guard and their starting center, two pretty important positions.
- [36:37]
Tim MacMahon
Yes.
- [36:38]
Brian Windhorst
So 39 and a half is the number bond temps for the Indiana Pacers.
- [36:44]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, this, this one is hard too because I, they're not, they're going to try to make the playoffs, I'm sure. So I'll probably reluctantly say the over again looking at just how bad the east is. But I mean they're, they're gonna. No Halliburton and no Miles Turner and not any real replacement for either is going to be a difficult thing to manage. But they have enough depth and they're. I, I don't anticipate them trying to, I don't anticipate them trying to really tank. So I, I'll say they get to around 50, 40, you know, 41 and 41 and I'll, I'll take the. Over there.
- [37:26]
Tim MacMahon
I'd probably take slightly under again the whole gap year thing here. I think the most interesting thing about the Pacers this year on the floor is going to be watching Ryan Nimhard as the full time point guard, obviously. Why am I, I am so bad.
- [37:47]
Brian Windhorst
Listen, I've been making mistakes today too. I am not putting my, I'm not looking down my nose at you, but.
- [37:52]
Tim MacMahon
Ryan Nimhard, full time point guard of the G League's Texas Legends this year on a two way contract with the math. I tell you what I gotta have. I've only had one cup of coffee. Andrew Nimmort, who has certainly made himself a household name for NBA media at least. But seriously, the guy has proven himself as a great role player. As a like dude, what a playoff run that he had. Great defensive guard, outstanding complimentary player. He's going to have the ball in his hands this year a ton. And it's going to be fascinating to see how he handles that. And you know, long term there, there might be some, some major benefit to him having this experience.
- [38:43]
Brian Windhorst
I'm going over here just because I know how the Pacers organization operates. They're well coached, they've got good development, they've got good depth. They're just limited in what they're going to spend. That's just the truth. And that's, that's what happened to. They lost Miles Turner because of that. I mean that's just. No other way to put it. But they have, you know, there are some, some younger players who could get bigger roles this year who might thrive a little bit. You know, you might see some Johnny Furfy who, you know, they have routinely drafted guys who have gotten better. Not everybody, they don't bat a thousand like anybody else. But a big thing for them will be what they do with Benedict Mather and whether they extend him and if they don't extend him, whether they trade him. But obviously they have TJ McConnell who will help them. And you know TJ McConnell is going to lead them to victories like he's going to be a difference making player. You're, you're. There might be two or three games this year where TJ McConnell makes the difference and that pushes him over. So I don't know what's going to happen with them but they are a team that typically overachieves, not underachieves and so I'll bet on their overachieving. Okay, Miami Heat McMahon I believe it's your turn. 37 1/2 the wager on the Heat to being a losing team this year. They make the move to get Norm Powell is their big off season move. Losing team.
- [40:02]
Tim MacMahon
I don't like Brandon.
- [40:03]
Brian Windhorst
Yes here.
- [40:04]
Tim MacMahon
I don't like betting on the Heat to be a losing team. I know they were last year. I don't know man. I think Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Norm Powell in the Eastern Conference they won't have the Jimmy saga unfolding and sucking the soul out of the team for the first half of the season. Obviously I don't have to talk about SPO's credentials as a head coach. I'm. I'm going to take the over here.
- [40:33]
Tim Bontemps
My best bet on the entire board taken over on the 37 and a half. The Heat last year had the fifth most clutch games in the league. 42 of them. They went 14 and 28. They're not going to do that again. And they while doing that they won 37 games. So in nine clutch games they were 23 and 17. They're going to be better than 37 wins. And like you said, McMahon, Bam Adebayo had a bad year. Last year will be better. They had the Jimmy thing hanging over him for half the year. I suspect they're going to be decently better this year. Especially because again like the Pacers, they're going to be trying to win games in the east and they're, they're going to be a lot of games to win. So I think that numbers.
- [41:15]
Brian Windhorst
I agree. I think they're going to try to win. They may improve during the year.
- [41:18]
Tim Bontemps
I'm going over more Hoop Collective podcast after this.
- [41:24]
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Tim MacMahon
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Brian Windhorst
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- [43:09]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, I mean probably it's low. I mean again they they had Damian Lillard last year who's awfully good and they didn't really replace them. They replaced Brook Lopez and Miles Turner, but they still have the all star point guard hole on their team and yeah, they went out and like I've liked some of the stuff they've done on the margins. Like Ryan Rollins is an interesting young player. You know, getting Cole Anthony for the minimum on a buyout is fine. There's just not, there is not a lot of talent on the roster and they're one Giannis injury of any sort away. Even whether he's on, you know, say he's on the team. Fee misses three weeks, they quickly become one of the worst teams in the league. So I'm going to take the under both as a hedge on if something happens though I don't really expect it to trade wise. And also just the idea of him getting hurt because he's going to have a insane usage load this year and you know he's going to put up crazy numbers. But what I'm also not convinced that's going to have him in a situation where he's going to be playing 75 games. And if he misses, like I said, he misses any chunk of time, these guys are going to have a really, really, really hard time winning games.
- [44:29]
Tim MacMahon
Yeah. No, they're going to put the ball in Thanes and Santa Kupo's hands. Just kidding. I was continuing my train of scriveners names could have gone cost us there. Former 60th overall pick the Mavericks third player in the Luca Jalen Brunson draft. I, I can't go under 42 and a half with the honest though I think we there's going to be an interesting MVP discussion around him if he plays 70 games.
- [44:56]
Brian Windhorst
I have the information I have today is that Giannis is on the team. Obviously if that changes you, you change it. But 42 and a half I'm going over New York Knicks real close to the Cavs in terms of favorites to win the east. McMahon 53 and a half. They added some, some depth to their team. 53 1/2 New York Knicks I'm gonna.
- [45:20]
Tim MacMahon
Go over just because I think that the Knicks are going to benefit from playing in the Eastern Conference where there's, you know, going to be a lot of wins to be had. Yeah. So that's about what I'll say there. I and I, I don't know Mike Brown's obviously his credentials speak for themselves. I, I don't know if firing Tibbs is going to lead to more regular season wins or not, but I think this team wins more regular season games than they did last year, if that makes sense.
- [45:54]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, I, I'm also taking the over same reasons as the Cavs. The Knicks are good. The Knicks are pretty deep. The Knicks got deeper this off season and the east stinks. So they're going to win a couple more games and they'll probably be the second seed.
- [46:06]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, there's. There's three teams that ESPN BET has in the 50s for over under in the east and I just think that there's going to be a lot of wins available for those teams. So the Knicks I'm going to go over the other team that other than the Cavs that is over that has in the 50s for the over under is the Orlando Magic 51 1/2 bond temps. Obviously the big off season move trading four first for Desmond Bain.
- [46:29]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, I'm taking the under. I don't. I like the. I like the Magic talent wise but the Magic have a lot of injury questions. Doug, stay on the court. Desmond Bain has had a decent amount of health issues over the past couple years. Let's see how he can stay on the court. You know, Mo Wagner was a really important piece of them off the bench. He's obviously got a torn acl. We'll see when he can play. Jonathan Isaac is a guy who's in and out of the lineup in general. Paolo Ben Caro and Franz Wagner both missed time last year. This team still has some shooting issues.
- [47:03]
Tim MacMahon
And Jalen Suggs.
- [47:04]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, well, right, Suggs. I mentioned earlier, but.
- [47:09]
Brian Windhorst
I.
- [47:09]
Tim Bontemps
They could go over this number, but there's enough things that could go wrong for them to be under that. I'm going to take the under. But if they're healthy in April going into the playoffs and they show some improvement offensively from their core guys, they are going to be a very difficult out in the postseason.
- [47:27]
Tim MacMahon
I'd probably take the under 50. One and a half's a lot. I think, I think it's close. I think they're probably a 50 win team. I don't know about a 52 win team. I love the Bane fit for them. You know, I certainly can say they overpaid given the pick package that went back in return, especially with the Sun's pick being in there. But this team was starved for a big time shooter. Bain's a big time shooter who can also create a little bit. But again, I think. I think I'll go 50 and not 52.
- [48:09]
Brian Windhorst
Bain has averaged 56 games over the last three years. True. But even if they get 56 games out of Bane, I think it's going to be a boost to them and I do think that they're going to win some games. I don't think they're gonna. I don't think they're headed like to threaten 60. But again, if, if I'm. If I'm on the fence about a team in the Eastern Conference, I'm going to lean a little bit over if it's a good team because I just think there's going to be some wins out there. So I'll lean over on the Magic. I don't even know how you say the Philadelphia 76 series. I. I mean this is an off the board one for me. Bon Temps. The number is 30 is. Sorry, the number is 30. 40. Pontums. The number is 43 and a half. I don't freaking know.
- [48:54]
Tim Bontemps
You got to pick one way or the other eventually. Well, I'm. I'm picking the under. I. Paul George seems like he's going to be out for quite a while. We have no idea what Joel and B T Health is going to be. Why would you pick the over.
- [49:06]
Tim MacMahon
Yeah, I, I, I, I agree with that.
- [49:08]
Tim Bontemps
I just, it could go way over.
- [49:10]
Tim MacMahon
But, well, but here's the thing.
- [49:12]
Tim Bontemps
Why would you, but why would you bet that over?
- [49:15]
Tim MacMahon
Under 43 and a half games played by Joel embiid over. Under 43 and a half games played by Paul George. Let's be honest. We're probably picking the under on both of those and that if we're picking the under on those, we're picking the under on 43 and a half wins.
- [49:27]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah.
- [49:28]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah. You can't bet on the, you can't bet on the 76ers. It's, it's insane. You have to, you'd have to sleep on the under. All right. Toronto Raptors had a bit of a spur towards the end of the season. Ended up screwing them in the lottery. They end up going all the way back to ninth. They do get Brandon Ingram back. Back. Well, I guess he never played, so I guess he's not, he's not coming back. He has yet to play a game. And so they do get Brandon Ingram, who they paid a big premium to on a contract attention last year. They're over. Under is 36 and a half. McMahon.
- [50:07]
Tim MacMahon
Yeah. This team has playing written all over it.
- [50:11]
Brian Windhorst
Yes. God, they might want the plan. They'd be thrilled with the plan. That's the, that's the problem. The problem is, is that, you know, if they get near it, they may go for it.
- [50:20]
Tim MacMahon
Yeah. And I just.
- [50:21]
Brian Windhorst
God, they gave a ton of money to Jakob Poodle in one of the more under discussed contracts of the summer. At least for one. That was nine figures. Jakob Pearl got 26 million a year.
- [50:32]
Tim MacMahon
Yeah. God, I, I just, I don't really like the long term at all. For Toronto. It's a good thing people up there like hockey so much. I'm going to take the under and think they're going to be like a 33 win 10 seed.
- [50:53]
Tim Bontemps
I think this one's easy. I'm taking the over. Last year they, they won 30 games while pretty much actively trying to lose every game for the final couple months of the season. And they're going to be trying to push forward and in the east there's a lot of wins to be had and they're going to end up somewhere around 500. So I'll take the over.
- [51:15]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah. If Brandon Ingram, if that is it.
- [51:19]
Tim Bontemps
None of that is an endorsement really of the way things have gone the last couple years. I tend to agree with your position, McMahon. We've talked about Toronto Mount. I just, they are they're poised to be the eight seed?
- [51:30]
Tim MacMahon
Well, somebody, somebody's got to win games. When two Eastern Conference teams plays, one.
- [51:34]
Tim Bontemps
Has to win and they've got a, they've got a bunch of decent players and you know, they're, they're poised to be somewhere in that 500 mix.
- [51:43]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, their talent is indicative of a team that would be in this range. I'll go a nose over just because I think they'll try to improve the trade deadline and keep their foot down. Like I think that's what they're going to lean into. That's, you know, it could end up on the last day of the season to get into the playing Washington Wizards 20 and a half bond temps.
- [52:07]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, this one is like the Brooklyn Nets one difficult one to go either way on because we're probably going to have a couple teams under 20 wins. But which teams are they? The Wizards last year won 18 games. They do have a lot of young players who have gotten a lot of minutes who are probably going to be better this year. So they may improve a little bit. I will probably take the under though and lean into the fact that they're probably going to be bad for one more year and just playing again. All of these young guys, an absolute ton of minutes. I doubt CJ McCollum is playing a ton of minutes for them. I doubt Chris Middleton is playing a ton of minutes for them. You know, Trey Johnson is an interesting young guard, but again, as we talked about earlier, he's not a point guard. But you play guards, you're probably going to lose games and they're playing a lot of young guards. So I will reluctantly take the under even though I think that one could end up being wrong.
- [53:13]
Tim MacMahon
They at least have some interesting pieces in place. I really actually like the Cam Whitmore trade for them.
- [53:18]
Tim Bontemps
Me too.
- [53:19]
Tim MacMahon
Just as a high upside flyer. I don't blame the Rockets for just basically, hey, we've got to move on from him. He's not going to play regular minutes for us. And you know, I don't think he was going to be adding to the culture if he wasn't playing regular minutes. But the guy can, boy, he's a 6 foot 7 NBA athlete who can put the ball in the hole. But yeah, I would say it would certainly benefit them to, to be under on this and try to add somebody else to a core of Alex Sar and Trey Johnson. And then, you know, I, I, but I, I do, I, I just like, I like the AJ Johnson trade for them. I like them taking these high upside flyer swings while they are, you know, figuring out who their core is going to be that they're actually going to be able to win games with. Hopefully sooner than later, but certainly not this season.
- [54:13]
Brian Windhorst
20 is such a low over under. It's, it's hard to go under, but I think if they're on pace to go over, actions will be taken. Make sure they go under, which is what I'm going to lean to. Okay, that's the Eastern Conference. We appreciate you watching and listening to the Hoop Collective. Thank you to Jackson, thank you to McMahon, thank you to Bontems, and we'll talk to you soon.
- [54:32]
Tim MacMahon
Adios Migos.
- [54:45]
Brian Windhorst
Foreign.
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Brian Windhorst
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