Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
Episode: NBA Future Power Rankings Reaction
Date: September 26, 2025
Host: Brian Windhorst
Panelists: Tim Bontemps, Tim MacMahon (aka Bam McMahon)
Overview
This episode dives into the latest ESPN NBA Future Power Rankings, an annual assessment designed to forecast every NBA team’s prospects for the next three seasons. Host Brian Windhorst is joined by Insiders Tim Bontemps and Tim MacMahon to break down this year’s biggest risers, fallers, and the methodology behind projecting NBA team futures. The crew brings candid analysis, insider context on recent front office moves, and plenty of pointed humor about the unpredictable nature of NBA team building.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
The Methodology: How ESPN's Future Power Rankings Work
- [01:43] – [03:10]: Tim Bontemps explains the process, emphasizing the five categories each team is scored on (0-100 scale):
- Players: Roster quality.
- Draft: Future picks and assets.
- Market: Desirability of team location.
- Money: Salary cap situation.
- Management: Quality of front office, ownership, coaching.
- Rankings are an average of panelists’ scores, not ranked for who’ll win the title, but who’s best positioned for three-year success.
“The NBA is good at throwing us curveballs. ... A year ago, none of us would have said Luka Doncic is going to be a Laker.”
— Tim Bontemps [01:43]
The Biggest Riser: LA Clippers
- [04:45] – [11:08]: Jumped from 20th last year to 5th.
- Why? Surged after a surprising 50-win season and a more flexible cap sheet for the future (completely clean by 2027).
- Management: Steve Ballmer ranked highly for stability, investment, and not interfering with the front office (Lawrence Frank, Trent Redden).
- Caveats: Kawhi Leonard's health is perpetually uncertain; their path depends heavily on free agency due to lack of draft assets.
- Team success/roster improvement correspond more to flexibility than title odds—just being positioned well doesn’t guarantee it ends well.
“Obviously they have not had health luck with Kawhi Leonard in particular ... But the biggest thing is, I think ... they have a ton of flexibility going forward.”
— Tim Bontemps [05:21]
“Clippers are out 2026 to 2029 first-round capital ... how do you feel about free agency being almost the sole way to build a contender?”
— Tim MacMahon [08:14]
- Debate: Free agency as a primary team-building avenue is risky—few free agents in the last 20 years have shifted championship odds (LeBron, Durant).
- Team finished last season strong (17–4), nearly taking down the Nuggets. Their health remains the huge question.
The Second Biggest Riser: LA Lakers
- [15:23] – [16:33]: Climbed 13 spots; now 8th.
- Key factor: Adding Luka Doncic vaults them up rankings.
- Uncertainty: Future beyond Luka is murky; most of the roster is due to hit free agency after this season.
- LA’s built-in advantages: Big market, legacy, attractiveness, despite mediocre management score (17th).
“Adding Luka Doncic will cause your future to look a lot better. ... The Lakers have the most built-in advantages of any team in the league.”
— Tim Bontemps [15:32, 16:26]
Another Big Riser: Atlanta Hawks
- [17:30] – [20:22]: From 23rd to 12th.
- Youth movement panned out (Dyson Daniels won Most Improved).
- Smart trades, notably acquiring a valuable unprotected pick and solid assets from New Orleans and others.
- Maintained financial flexibility, improved draft capital.
- Good coaching (Quin Snyder) and solid front office execution (Atisala).
- Hawks' prospects have never been higher in the 16 years of the ranking project.
“Honestly, to move down 10 spots and get an unprotected pick from the Pelicans is ... malpractice by the Pelicans front office and the Hawks pounced on it.”
— Tim MacMahon [21:18]
Biggest Fallers: New Orleans Pelicans & Dallas Mavericks
Pelicans Plummet
- [21:44] – [29:18]: Dropped 13 spots to 29th—a franchise low since ESPN began tracking.
- Talent (Jeremiah Fears, Derek Queen) may develop, but short-term outlook is dire, especially in a brutal Western Conference.
- Crucially, Atlanta owns their likely top-10 draft pick.
- Ownership unwilling to spend, fresh front office lacks winning track record.
- Panel consensus: Pelicans' inability to build with free agency heightens pain of poor draft management.
“New Orleans is probably not going to be good this year ... Typically that would mean the Pelicans are going to have a top 10 pick ... Instead, they don’t have that pick, and Atlanta has it.”
— Tim Bontemps [22:48]
Mavericks Fall from 5th to 16th
- [30:53] – [37:33]: Fallout from losing Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving’s injury, old core.
- Hit the lottery to get Cooper Flagg, a generational prospect, which buoyed their rank, but future assets are depleted due to a string of big trades.
- Organization’s lack of checks and balances highlighted in the controversial Luka trade.
- Old roster: Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving—all questions about durability and timeline.
- Challenger: Flagg’s enormous upside versus limited draft capital and an aging supporting cast.
“It’s not just Luka leaving. It’s also Kyrie Irving being on a torn ACL ... this is an old roster. ... Honestly I’m a little surprised that management is sitting at 20.”
— Tim MacMahon [31:23, 33:30]
Free Agency vs. Draft: Team-Building Philosophies
- [08:52] – [13:52]:
- Free agency rarely lands foundational superstars; better for "finishing-piece" signings (e.g. Hartenstein to OKC).
- Markets like New Orleans can’t rely on free agency and must prize draft picks.
- Cap space set to become more relevant again as the NBA's financial landscape normalizes post-pandemic.
“Free agency at this point is best utilized to find a finishing piece and not a foundation piece.”
— Tim MacMahon [13:52]
Other Notable Movers
Celtics: From 2nd to 13th
- [42:55] – [47:59]
- Tatum’s Achilles injury drove the drop, as did the urgent roster shakeup to escape the luxury tax.
- Future will hinge on Tatum’s recovery, ancillary pieces developing, and possible lottery luck.
- In the short term, a "gap year" is likely; the team’s depth and flexibility will be tested.
“I would say they’re 13th in large part because one of the five or six best players in the league is not going to play this year with a torn Achilles.”
— Tim Bontemps [44:05]
Philadelphia 76ers: From 4th to 19th
- Briefly mentioned as deserving a closer look in a future episode.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Predicting NBA Futures:
“I ruled off making predictions ... because I knew how hard it was.”
— Brian Windhorst [04:21] -
On the Clippers’ Kawhi Gamble:
“Kawhi’s played 42% of their games, 42% of the time you’re going to have a first-team All-NBA player ... What does that get you?”
— Brian Windhorst [10:11] -
On Mavericks’ Asset Management:
“You gave up all these draft picks ... four years early in Cooper Flag's career of not having control of your first round pick, that’s a very narrow path.”
— Tim MacMahon [33:53] -
On Rookie Impact:
“I would be cautious, though, on counting on a kid who’s going to be 18 when his NBA career starts to drive winning.”
— Tim MacMahon [38:59]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [01:43] Future Power Rankings methodology explained
- [04:45] Clippers: biggest jump and why
- [05:21] Management & flexibility discussion for Clippers
- [08:14] Viability of free agency in team-building
- [12:49] The modern NBA cap and free agency revival
- [15:23] Lakers’ surge due to Luka, roster uncertainty
- [17:30] Atlanta Hawks’ transformation and shrewd trades
- [21:44] Pelicans’ bleak outlook, draft pick lost to Atlanta
- [30:53] Mavericks’ fall, Cooper Flagg, and asset depletion
- [42:55] Celtics future, Tatum injury, cap/luxury-tax crunch
Tone and Language
- The dialogue is direct and unsparing, often laced with wry humor about the volatility of NBA futures and front office decision-making.
- Panelists maintain an analytical, insider perspective, balanced with relatable skepticism about the unpredictability of projecting three years out.
Final Thoughts
This episode offers a comprehensive, honest breakdown of where NBA teams stand as they look to the next three years, with particular attention to roster flexibility, draft assets, franchise health, and the shifting landscape of free agency. The biggest lesson: No matter how promising a situation may look on paper, NBA fortunes can shift overnight—sometimes on the bounce of a lottery ball or the snap of a superstar’s Achilles.
For a full breakdown of all 30 teams, check ESPN’s Future Power Rankings on their website. This episode, however, gives rich context for the season's headline risers and fallers, and how some major franchises might be stuck in neutral—or preparing for a hard reset.