NBA Future Power Rankings Reaction

Summary

Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective

Episode: NBA Future Power Rankings Reaction
Date: September 26, 2025
Host: Brian Windhorst
Panelists: Tim Bontemps, Tim MacMahon (aka Bam McMahon)

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Overview

This episode dives into the latest ESPN NBA Future Power Rankings, an annual assessment designed to forecast every NBA team’s prospects for the next three seasons. Host Brian Windhorst is joined by Insiders Tim Bontemps and Tim MacMahon to break down this year’s biggest risers, fallers, and the methodology behind projecting NBA team futures. The crew brings candid analysis, insider context on recent front office moves, and plenty of pointed humor about the unpredictable nature of NBA team building.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Methodology: How ESPN's Future Power Rankings Work

• [01:43] – [03:10]: Tim Bontemps explains the process, emphasizing the five categories each team is scored on (0-100 scale):
  • Players: Roster quality.
  • Draft: Future picks and assets.
  • Market: Desirability of team location.
  • Money: Salary cap situation.
  • Management: Quality of front office, ownership, coaching.
• Rankings are an average of panelists’ scores, not ranked for who’ll win the title, but who’s best positioned for three-year success.

“The NBA is good at throwing us curveballs. ... A year ago, none of us would have said Luka Doncic is going to be a Laker.”
— Tim Bontemps [01:43]

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The Biggest Riser: LA Clippers

• [04:45] – [11:08]: Jumped from 20th last year to 5th.
  • Why? Surged after a surprising 50-win season and a more flexible cap sheet for the future (completely clean by 2027).
  • Management: Steve Ballmer ranked highly for stability, investment, and not interfering with the front office (Lawrence Frank, Trent Redden).
  • Caveats: Kawhi Leonard's health is perpetually uncertain; their path depends heavily on free agency due to lack of draft assets.
• Team success/roster improvement correspond more to flexibility than title odds—just being positioned well doesn’t guarantee it ends well.

“Obviously they have not had health luck with Kawhi Leonard in particular ... But the biggest thing is, I think ... they have a ton of flexibility going forward.”
— Tim Bontemps [05:21]

“Clippers are out 2026 to 2029 first-round capital ... how do you feel about free agency being almost the sole way to build a contender?”
— Tim MacMahon [08:14]

• Debate: Free agency as a primary team-building avenue is risky—few free agents in the last 20 years have shifted championship odds (LeBron, Durant).
• Team finished last season strong (17–4), nearly taking down the Nuggets. Their health remains the huge question.

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The Second Biggest Riser: LA Lakers

• [15:23] – [16:33]: Climbed 13 spots; now 8th.
  • Key factor: Adding Luka Doncic vaults them up rankings.
  • Uncertainty: Future beyond Luka is murky; most of the roster is due to hit free agency after this season.
  • LA’s built-in advantages: Big market, legacy, attractiveness, despite mediocre management score (17th).

“Adding Luka Doncic will cause your future to look a lot better. ... The Lakers have the most built-in advantages of any team in the league.”
— Tim Bontemps [15:32, 16:26]

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Another Big Riser: Atlanta Hawks

• [17:30] – [20:22]: From 23rd to 12th.
  • Youth movement panned out (Dyson Daniels won Most Improved).
  • Smart trades, notably acquiring a valuable unprotected pick and solid assets from New Orleans and others.
  • Maintained financial flexibility, improved draft capital.
  • Good coaching (Quin Snyder) and solid front office execution (Atisala).
• Hawks' prospects have never been higher in the 16 years of the ranking project.

“Honestly, to move down 10 spots and get an unprotected pick from the Pelicans is ... malpractice by the Pelicans front office and the Hawks pounced on it.”
— Tim MacMahon [21:18]

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Biggest Fallers: New Orleans Pelicans & Dallas Mavericks

Pelicans Plummet

• [21:44] – [29:18]: Dropped 13 spots to 29th—a franchise low since ESPN began tracking.
  • Talent (Jeremiah Fears, Derek Queen) may develop, but short-term outlook is dire, especially in a brutal Western Conference.
  • Crucially, Atlanta owns their likely top-10 draft pick.
  • Ownership unwilling to spend, fresh front office lacks winning track record.
  • Panel consensus: Pelicans' inability to build with free agency heightens pain of poor draft management.

“New Orleans is probably not going to be good this year ... Typically that would mean the Pelicans are going to have a top 10 pick ... Instead, they don’t have that pick, and Atlanta has it.”
— Tim Bontemps [22:48]

Mavericks Fall from 5th to 16th

• [30:53] – [37:33]: Fallout from losing Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving’s injury, old core.
  • Hit the lottery to get Cooper Flagg, a generational prospect, which buoyed their rank, but future assets are depleted due to a string of big trades.
  • Organization’s lack of checks and balances highlighted in the controversial Luka trade.
  • Old roster: Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving—all questions about durability and timeline.
  • Challenger: Flagg’s enormous upside versus limited draft capital and an aging supporting cast.

“It’s not just Luka leaving. It’s also Kyrie Irving being on a torn ACL ... this is an old roster. ... Honestly I’m a little surprised that management is sitting at 20.”
— Tim MacMahon [31:23, 33:30]

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Free Agency vs. Draft: Team-Building Philosophies

• [08:52] – [13:52]:
  • Free agency rarely lands foundational superstars; better for "finishing-piece" signings (e.g. Hartenstein to OKC).
  • Markets like New Orleans can’t rely on free agency and must prize draft picks.
  • Cap space set to become more relevant again as the NBA's financial landscape normalizes post-pandemic.

“Free agency at this point is best utilized to find a finishing piece and not a foundation piece.”
— Tim MacMahon [13:52]

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Other Notable Movers

Celtics: From 2nd to 13th

• [42:55] – [47:59]
  • Tatum’s Achilles injury drove the drop, as did the urgent roster shakeup to escape the luxury tax.
  • Future will hinge on Tatum’s recovery, ancillary pieces developing, and possible lottery luck.
  • In the short term, a "gap year" is likely; the team’s depth and flexibility will be tested.

“I would say they’re 13th in large part because one of the five or six best players in the league is not going to play this year with a torn Achilles.”
— Tim Bontemps [44:05]

Philadelphia 76ers: From 4th to 19th

• Briefly mentioned as deserving a closer look in a future episode.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Predicting NBA Futures:

  “I ruled off making predictions ... because I knew how hard it was.”
  — Brian Windhorst [04:21]

• On the Clippers’ Kawhi Gamble:

  “Kawhi’s played 42% of their games, 42% of the time you’re going to have a first-team All-NBA player ... What does that get you?”
  — Brian Windhorst [10:11]

• On Mavericks’ Asset Management:

  “You gave up all these draft picks ... four years early in Cooper Flag's career of not having control of your first round pick, that’s a very narrow path.”
  — Tim MacMahon [33:53]

• On Rookie Impact:

  “I would be cautious, though, on counting on a kid who’s going to be 18 when his NBA career starts to drive winning.”
  — Tim MacMahon [38:59]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:43] Future Power Rankings methodology explained
• [04:45] Clippers: biggest jump and why
• [05:21] Management & flexibility discussion for Clippers
• [08:14] Viability of free agency in team-building
• [12:49] The modern NBA cap and free agency revival
• [15:23] Lakers’ surge due to Luka, roster uncertainty
• [17:30] Atlanta Hawks’ transformation and shrewd trades
• [21:44] Pelicans’ bleak outlook, draft pick lost to Atlanta
• [30:53] Mavericks’ fall, Cooper Flagg, and asset depletion
• [42:55] Celtics future, Tatum injury, cap/luxury-tax crunch

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Tone and Language

• The dialogue is direct and unsparing, often laced with wry humor about the volatility of NBA futures and front office decision-making.
• Panelists maintain an analytical, insider perspective, balanced with relatable skepticism about the unpredictability of projecting three years out.

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Final Thoughts

This episode offers a comprehensive, honest breakdown of where NBA teams stand as they look to the next three years, with particular attention to roster flexibility, draft assets, franchise health, and the shifting landscape of free agency. The biggest lesson: No matter how promising a situation may look on paper, NBA fortunes can shift overnight—sometimes on the bounce of a lottery ball or the snap of a superstar’s Achilles.

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For a full breakdown of all 30 teams, check ESPN’s Future Power Rankings on their website. This episode, however, gives rich context for the season's headline risers and fallers, and how some major franchises might be stuck in neutral—or preparing for a hard reset.

Transcript

[Tim Bontemps]

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[Bam McMahon]

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[Podcast Host]

Foreign. Welcome to the Hoop Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA, which we are doing on Wednesday afternoon. Joining me from New York City before he's headed overseas for a weekend of fun with a, with a three month old is Tim Bonteps.

[Tim Bontemps]

Four and a half for the cinder block.

[Podcast Host]

Oh, four and a half. Well, he only looks like he's about 14 months old.

[Tim Bontemps]

Yes, that is true. Hello, everybody.

[Podcast Host]

Joining us from Los Angeles, California, LAPD. He's doing NBA Today. Out there this week is Bam McMahon.

[Bam McMahon]

Howdy, partners. I like how this newborn baby's got a stronger passport game than I do. This is, this is impressive.

[Tim Bontemps]

He's putting my back in McMahon territory too, at the rate things are going.

[Podcast Host]

So I'm not kidding you, like, I'm not so sure you should be carrying as much as you do, especially on a overseas flight, but hey, you do you.

[Tim Bontemps]

He's the boss.

[Podcast Host]

All right. So one of my favorite off season of stories came out this week, the future power rankings, which is a look at the next three years in the NBA. And seeing as we have one of the three panelists who put it together, let's have Tim Bontemps explain how he puts us, how he, what he looks at to put this together.

[Tim Bontemps]

Yeah. Kevin Pelton, Bobby Marks and myself do this every year. And the, the rough goal of it, as you said, is to try to take a three year snapshot of the league and try to project out what, you know, roughly teams will look like over that span. Obviously, you can't necessarily know how things are going to go. For example, a year ago, none of us would have sat here and said Luke Doncic is going to be a Laker. Right. So the NBA is good.

[Podcast Host]

He didn't.

[Tim Bontemps]

I did not. That was, I would not have guessed that one or predicted it. So the NBA is good at throwing his curveballs. But like you said, I think the, the best way to think about it is, you know, generally going into that, we usually run it now around the start of the season. It's to try to assess where the league is, is at across the board. And there's five different categories, players, which is obviously what you have on your roster. Draft, which is again, pretty obviously draft assets market, where you play money, which is what you're salary sheet looks like going forward, whether you're going to have cap space or whether you're going to be deep into the second apron. And management, which accounts for coaching staff, front office and ownership. And we rank all of them from 0 to 100 and average them out and put our averages together and we get the list that we have.

[Podcast Host]

Okay? So, by the way, last year you ranked the Thunder number one. Nice job.

[Bam McMahon]

Really went out on a limb on that one, by the way.

[Podcast Host]

Well, hey, hey, listen, you know, there were a lot of people that did not pick the Thunder to win.

[Tim Bontemps]

Well, I guess just to back up for one second, being number one on this list does not necessarily mean I understand you're gonna win the title. And it is worth pointing out that, like, for example, in 2022, the number one team on this list was the Memphis Grizzlies. Right? And they had Desmond Bain and John Morant and Darren Jaren Jackson Jr. And they had this young, exciting core. And it looked like they were on the way up. And now they're 17th and they won a total of one playoff series. Right. Like that. That's sort of the way these things can go. Like, you know, the Thunder are now first a couple years in a row. It looks like they could be first for a long time.

[Bam McMahon]

But.

[Tim Bontemps]

But, you know, it's. It's hard to know for sure where things are going to go from here. That's why it's, you know, it's trying to look at the next three years and how teams are positioned. But just because you're positioned well doesn't mean you'll always have it end well.

[Podcast Host]

Right. Which is why when I got about 15 years in the league, I ruled off making predictions because I knew how.

[Bam McMahon]

That's not. That is not wise. Because of the backlash. Don't. We're not letting you get off the hook.

[Podcast Host]

All right, so the biggest mover on this list, year over year, both up or down. Bon temps. I think it has to be the headline where we start. And I didn't want to talk about this team because we just talked about this team.

[Bam McMahon]

Twist his arm.

[Podcast Host]

The biggest mover on this list jumping up 20 spots or 15 spots from last year, going from number 20 last year to number four five this year. Please explain why you have the LA Clippers.

[Bam McMahon]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host]

Making the biggest move and fit to fifth overall. Obviously they had a very good year Last year better than expected, but this one made me stop.

[Tim Bontemps]

Well, yeah, I mean, look, I mean, and I will say in full transparency, we did these vote. We voted on this a couple of weeks ago. However, I would also say that as of this moment, nothing has changed with the Clippers future. And if we're running the story now, we have to sort of operate under the, the set of facts we have, which is that nothing has happened to the Clippers yet. And obviously the Clippers have traded away a bunch of their future draft picks as of now. And certainly their draft pick situation could get worse if there's some penalties that come from this situation. But they're a top five market, obviously team in the league. Being in la, even if they're not the number one New York LA team, they're certainly a place that people want to play now. And LA is a place where guys have always wanted to play. We had them ranked second in management, which when you look at Steve Ballmer and his willingness to spend money and has been a guy who has seemingly not gotten in the way of his front office, which with Lawrence Frank and Trent Redden and Mark Hughes and those guys has done a very good job over the past several years. Now, again, I think their process has been good in terms of building out teams. Obviously they have not had health luck with Kawhi Leonard in particular and Paul George to a lesser extent before that. But the biggest thing is I think if you look at what happened from this year to last year, last year they lose Paul George. We spent the summer going, man, they lose Paul George for nothing. Where is this team at? They're probably not going to be very good then. They win 50 games last year, their roster is better this year and they have a ton of flexibility going forward, including having basically a completely clean cap sheet in 2027 to go chase whoever they want in free agency. So they're a top five money team. Now. Again, all this is with the caveat that we will see what happens with this investigation. But you know, in the aggregate, should they maybe be a little bit lower than fifth maybe? Like I think you could, I think you could debate whether the Clippers or Lakers should be ahead of one or the other. The Lakers have the most important thing you could have, which is a top five player in Luka Doncic who's now under contract. I think top five reasonable people entering.

[Bam McMahon]

His, entering his prime.

[Tim Bontemps]

Correct. And I think you could reasonably argue the Clippers have the advantage just about everywhere else. So that's where it becomes an interesting Discussion. But either way, I don't think anybody would have argued with them being a top five to 10 team in this ranking before the last couple of weeks. And obviously if they wind up losing multiple draft picks and things go haywire going forward, that will change where they're at now.

[Podcast Host]

It doesn't change their next three years.

[Bam McMahon]

Well, and that's.

[Podcast Host]

They don't control their draft really the next three years anyway.

[Bam McMahon]

Right. This is a three year snapshot, which is a, this is the near future power range.

[Tim Bontemps]

Right.

[Bam McMahon]

Not the long term. Because honestly, the long term future for the Clippers is murky. I get they're going to have a lot of flexibility in 2027, but Wendy, how do you feel about free agency being, you know, the primary and I would even say almost the sole way to build a contender in the modern NBA because they're out. They're out 26 to 29, draft first on capital, either swaps or outright. We'll see about, you know, 30 and beyond, pending NBA investigation. So how do you feel about free agency as the path to building a contender?

[Podcast Host]

Well, without getting too far afield here, who are the free agents of the last 20 years that materially changed the balance of power in the NBA? Like changed who? The championship?

[Bam McMahon]

Yeah, we did this LeBron a few times. And you know, in KD, Kevin Durant, you know, they took their swing on, on Kawhi, which obviously has not worked out to the levels that they hope.

[Podcast Host]

And so many other these teams that have opened cap space to chase free agents. Well, there's more ways to spend cap space than just free agency. I would just say this. I like the clippers at number five, talking about the 20, 25, 26 season.

[Bam McMahon]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host]

Because I think all of this stuff around the Kawhi recruitment and whatever has clouded the fact that the Clippers like the hand that they're holding with the team that they've got right now. Now, when you're comparing them, you got to say, well, they beaten the Thunder. Well, no, no one's picking them to beat the Thunder, but that's why you play the games. I'll just point out. And McMahon just heard me say this on the call that we just had preparing for NBA Today. So he's going to have heard this exact thing. They finished the season 17 and 4. Okay. They were ahead 2 to 1 in the series against the Nuggets. And they were ahead in the final minute of game four.

[Tim Bontemps]

I mean, they were ahead in the final point two seconds of game four.

[Podcast Host]

Okay. Right. So beyond that you know, beyond that play like they had the opportunity to win the game, to go up 3:1. And obviously the Thunder won the series with the Nuggets in seven. Kawhi, we went over in the last podcast, we went over his stats after the All Star break last year. I have no idea whether he's going to be healthy. McMahon brought up in the, in the meeting and I'll. So you don't have to say it. Kawhi's played 42% of their games, 42% of the time. You're going to have a first team all NBA player. What does that get you? I agree. If he plays 42% of their games this year, we ain't talk about anything. But you know, I, you know, this ranking, I actually don't. I brought it up because it's the biggest jump and it causes like the biggest eyebrow raise. I actually, I don't think you're necessarily wrong other than the fact that in three years I don't know if anybody on this team will still be on.

[Tim Bontemps]

Well, I mean, yeah, I mean it's, it should be noted and it's worth pointing out that like, it's not. It, it isn't like we sit there and go, hey, let's like start ranking these teams from 1 to 30 and see where it lands, right? It is an average of these things and it's like it's literally an average and it's just wherever the average comes out is what the ranking is. So yeah, like I said, I think you, you could easily argue the clippers should be 10th instead of fifth, I think, if you want. But the main thing is why did they jump so much? Because a year ago it was like, where is this team going without Paul George? And like what situation are they in? And then they had a great season. They added to their roster, they have flexibility going forward and up until the last couple of weeks they were seen as having excellent coaching, front office, ownership stability and performance. And they're in LA and they have money to spend. And the only thing I'll point out about free agency, because it is something that's come up a lot, is the last few years. The league has obviously seen very little to no free agency happen at all because of we had three years in a row due to Covid where the cap went up a total of 3% across three years. Now that the cap is going up somewhere between probably 5 and 10% a year going forward, it will be interesting to see how much free agency becomes a factor again and whether it's actually dead.

[Podcast Host]

Cap space is going to be coming back, right?

[Tim Bontemps]

There has been no cap space for anybody to use at all. Now there's going to be cap space for teams to use. Or the only teams that have had cap space have been like the Nets this year who were not interested in trying to improve their roster and win games. Or there's been like one or two teams with space. So we will see what happens.

[Bam McMahon]

A couple things 1 42% of games played, 33% of postseasons finished healthy For Kawhi since he's been with the Clippers, that's two out of six including last year, which means that they missed a precious opportunity when they got eliminated by the Nuggets. And seven Also I think Free we should mention Jalen Brunson. I don't know if he shifted the power of the league, but he certainly was that freedom. Free agency resuscitated the franchise, but for sure, I think free agency at this point is best utilized to find a finishing piece and not a foundation piece. The Oklahoma City Thunder Isaiah Hartenstein, you know, along with their trade for Crusoe, Hartenstein was a finishing piece for them, but they had the luxury of having their core in place, including, you know, a guy who's going to win the MVP last year in place and they're able to add to that. Whereas the Clippers are going to have all this cap flexibility because all their foundation pieces are going to be free agents themselves.

[Tim Bontemps]

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[Podcast Host]

All right, so the, the lakers were the second biggest mover. They went up 13 spots to number eight. That's a Luka.

[Bam McMahon]

Yeah, sure.

[Tim Bontemps]

Adding Luka Doncic will cause your future to look a lot better.

[Podcast Host]

I will say this.

[Bam McMahon]

And losing them will make it look worse.

[Podcast Host]

I will say this because I don't know what's going to happen with Austin Reeves. And it's not a judgment Austin Reeves. It's more about how Austin Reeves fits with Luca. And because like we talked about earlier this week, their whole team basically is free agents after this year, I'm not sure that any of the current Lakers other than Luca will be there three years from now.

[Bam McMahon]

Interesting.

[Podcast Host]

And so really the number eight thing is just a vote on, you know, Luka ascending to where he, you know, should ascend, you know, his destiny.

[Bam McMahon]

And let's just be honest, the Lakers have every advantage in the world in terms of.

[Podcast Host]

They don't have every advantage.

[Bam McMahon]

Well, because it's not hard to convince guys, hey, do you want to play in LA for the league's most glamorous franchise? There's a long track record.

[Tim Bontemps]

The Lakers have the most built in advantages of any team in the league by a. And doesn't mean they have. Doesn't mean they have infinite, but they have the most.

[Podcast Host]

Ownership is not one of the things you consider. I don't know if it's folded into management.

[Tim Bontemps]

Oh, I told, I said earlier, it is folded.

[Podcast Host]

Okay, well, all right. Sorry.

[Tim Bontemps]

No, it's all good.

[Podcast Host]

Those pockets. I don't know what kind of owners that Mark Walter and his group will be. I have a high standard that I think that they could meet. I'm not sure how Jeannie Buss potentially remaining as governor will affect that. But if you're looking at the Lakers and saying that they have advantages they haven't always had, like you've got The Lakers ranked 17th in management. Not you, but the group has the 17th in management. It's possible that could rise.

[Bam McMahon]

I'm surprised. I, I thought bond timps would be higher on Plinka just because they both share a love for vocabulary words.

[Podcast Host]

Plinka shares a love for, you know, telling parables.

[Bam McMahon]

There's vocabulary word.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah. Okay. Another big mover. As we look at the, the risers here. Bon temps. The Atlanta hawks rising from 23rd a year ago to 12th. You seem to you. I keep saying you. It's not you, it's Belton Bobby as well.

[Tim Bontemps]

I mean, you could say me, it's okay, I don't mind take that. I could take the attacks for those guys.

[Podcast Host]

So the thing about it is, is the, the Hawks have been mired in play, in land. They had that incredible run four years ago to get to the conference finals that were aided by injury. But look, Trae Young took it and, and they have these, these group of young players. They made the big off season additions. Porzingis, Nikhil Alexander, Walker.

[Bam McMahon]

The Pelicans pick next year.

[Podcast Host]

The Pelicans pick next year. So that, that, that. I don't know how much that played into them being up here at number 12 in a higher ranking bottoms.

[Tim Bontemps]

Yeah, I mean to foreshadow something that we generally talk about every summer that's coming next week, the off season survey. The Hawks came up a lot in that also. And yeah, look, I mean again, Atlanta is a lot like. Again, there's a reason why they jumped up a lot. It's a lot like the Clippers and it's a lot like the Lakers and that if you look a year ago at where Atlanta was at, they had just made the Dejounte Murray trade, but we had not seen anything yet from Dyson Daniels. He was just an intriguing player that they got in the deal that we didn't know much about. He went on to win most improved player. They go out this summer and they get Nikki Alexander Walker from Minnesota, they get Chris Jasper Zingis from the Celtics. They have a solid season last year where their young players take steps forward. They have all their guys pretty much on good deals at this point. Going forward, we'll see what happens with Trae Young. They obviously make the draft pick trade with the Pelicans and give themselves arguably the best draft asset in the league right now. That unprotected swap with either the Pelicans or the Bucks in next year's draft. And they've got a good coach in Quinn Snyder. Atisala running their front office has done an excellent job over the past several months. Like Atlanta's in a very strong position and in a much different position than they were a year ago. And you know, the, the funny thing is we've been doing this, this thing for a long time and they've never been in the top 10 and never been higher than they are this year. So you know, we'll see what happens a year from now. Maybe they end up with Darren Peterson or AJ DeBancer or maybe the Pelicans stun everybody and are good and their young players. Take a step back and we'll see. But again, this is like several of these other teams where you look at where they were last fall and you look at where they are now and it's a pretty good day to be a Hawk.

[Bam McMahon]

Yeah. And the Hawks have done two major things in terms of the value of their future draft over the next few years and that is decrease the value of the picks of the swap and the pick that they still owe San Antonio for the Dejounte Murray deal and then get a massive boost in draft value for just the absolute highway robbery of a trade that they made on draft night with the New Orleans Pelicans. And I think the two best moves and two phenomenal moves that the Hawks have made over the last couple of years have both been with the Pelicans and with two different Pelicans front offices. But obviously to get Dyson Daniels and a 27. Was it a 27 pick for Dejounte Murray was. Was a great deal for them in terms of financial flexibility, in terms of draft value and in terms of a guy who steps right in as an all defensive team player and as a long term starter for them. Yes, the best of the the Pelicans or Bucs pick in 27 and then to move down 10 spots and get an unprotected pick from the Pelicans is honestly Bontemps. You like to use the word malpractice. That is malpractice by the Belkans front office and the Hawks pounced on it.

[Podcast Host]

Speaking of New Orleans and Bontemps, Bontemps wrote up the assessment of the Pelicans who are one of the lowest, switching to the teams that drop the most. The Pelicans dropped 13 spots year over year. They were middle of the pack and now they ranked 29th in these rankings. And Bontem says this stat in here, which is a little bit depressing for Pelicans fans. These rankings have been been done for 16 years with various committees because not even I've been at ESPN for 16 years.

[Bam McMahon]

I'm just celebrating my 16 year anniversary.

[Podcast Host]

Congratulations. My 16th anniversary is September. October 1st. Fifteenth year anniversary, October 1st.

[Bam McMahon]

Yeah. You're a senior writer. But I'm older and more experienced. Go on.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah, well, I think everybody would agree with that.

[Tim Bontemps]

Facts.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah. So anyway, this is the lowest spot the Pelic. Well, it's Hard to get much lower than 29th. But the point is, what you're saying here, Bon Temps is this outlook for the Pelicans is the bleakest by the assessment of this since.

[Tim Bontemps]

Yeah, I mean, look, this isn't. This is also not very complicated, right? New Orleans is probably not going to be good this year. Yes, they have Jeremiah Fears. Yes, they have Derek Queen. Maybe those guys will become All Stars. Like, they are talented players. They could blow up in the future. Right. Zion Williamson is obviously a huge enigma. Still, he could be a guy who plays 65, 70 games and makes the All Star team again. He could once again be a guy that misses a lot of time. I think I know what side. I would bet. But you know, we'll see.

[Podcast Host]

No, you're very. I think I did.

[Tim Bontemps]

But, but the other thing is like this team, as we've talked about the lot, the west is an absolute bear, right? And if you're trying to paint the rosy picture for the Pelicans, the best argument you can make is ian Williamson plays 70 plus games and this team is pushing for a playing spot. That's probably the best realistic argument you can make. So typically that would mean the Pelicans are going to have a top 10 pick and what's a really strong draft? That would be something that would really boost the future outlook of a team like this. Instead, they don't have that pick and Atlanta has it. And so even if they are bad this year, it's hard to look at and say, man, these guys could add Darren Peterson or AJ DeBancer to Zion Williamson and these other guys and maybe they take off like that option isn't available to him. So, you know, we'll, we'll see where it lands. Again, we talked about teams going up and down this list year to year. Things do change a lot, especially as McMahon said, it's. The league has gotten shorter and shorter with time horizons over time. But if you're objectively looking at where the Pelicans are at, it is a pretty bleak place to be in the short term. And as you said, big man, this is really a short term future outlook. And future outlook. Future short term future outlook is pretty bleak.

[Podcast Host]

How much do you like the chances of the Hawks to not be in the play in this year?

[Bam McMahon]

I. I think the Hawks have a better chance to be a top four team in the east than to be a play in team.

[Tim Bontemps]

Okay, the Hawks have. The Hawks have some injury concern across the board. Right. Jalen Johnson has missed a lot of time with injuries. Chris Asporzingus has missed a lot time with injuries. You know, they've had guys in and out of the lineup, but yeah, their, their ceiling is they could be top two or three in the East, I think if things break right.

[Podcast Host]

I'm just saying, like universally panned, this Derek Queen trade. What happens if Derek Queen is like. What happens if Derek Queen is second team all rookie and the swap ends up. It's not a swap.

[Tim Bontemps]

Well, given. Given Derek Queen already has a busted wrist, I believe. Okay. Surgery on it this summer. Well, I, I know, but he's going to miss the beginning of the season. I would say I'm wrong, but this.

[Bam McMahon]

Is just a straight up pick. It's not a swap.

[Podcast Host]

I thought it was a swap.

[Tim Bontemps]

It's an unprotected. It's an unprotected swap.

[Bam McMahon]

Oh, it is a swap. My bad.

[Podcast Host]

So let me just, let me just ask this just as a devil's advocate. Not that I.

[Tim Bontemps]

Sure, sure.

[Podcast Host]

Let's say that the, that the. At the Hawks finish 6.6ish in the east and it's like. And the Pelicans maybe miss out on the play in and the pick you like. It's like the swap is like from the Pelicans.

[Bam McMahon]

This is not a swap. Atlanta will receive the more favorable of Milwaukee's and New Orleans 2026 first round pick and Milwaukee will receive the less favorable. This is not. The Milwaukee pick is involved in a swap, but the Pelicans aren't.

[Tim Bontemps]

Not. Oh, that's. Yes.

[Bam McMahon]

This is not a swap.

[Tim Bontemps]

Yes.

[Bam McMahon]

Atlanta's not giving up a swap. Atlanta's just getting a pick. The better one of New Orleans or Milwaukee.

[Tim Bontemps]

That's right. That. Yeah. I was saying this is a.

[Bam McMahon]

Listen, this trade's terrible for New Orleans.

[Tim Bontemps]

Yes.

[Bam McMahon]

Unless Derek Queen becomes an all star type of player. This is.

[Tim Bontemps]

It's not even about Derek Queen. It's about the process.

[Podcast Host]

It is about Derek Queen.

[Tim Bontemps]

It's not. It's not. It's about the. No, it's not. Because again, if they get their Queen.

[Podcast Host]

If their Queen becomes an all star.

[Tim Bontemps]

Brian, if the Hawks. If they had said to the Hawks, we'll do this top four protected, for example, you know what the Hawks would have done? Yeah, we'll do that deal. Obviously they would have done it because it's, it's worth the. Especially keeping themselves in the draft like they did last year. That's why it was such a bad trip.

[Podcast Host]

Look, the whole league agrees with you. From the moment the trade became known, the whole league slapped their head. I'm not taking the opposite side of that. I'm just saying let's just wait a little bit.

[Bam McMahon]

But the other thing is when you are New Orleans, free agency is just not a possibility. It will never be a free agency destination. That's why it ranks near the bottom. Bond Tims in market. There's just certain markets where, you know, unless you become a blossoming juggernaut like the Oklahoma City Thunder did and you can get Hartenstein, it has to be a very unique situation for that sort of a market to get a free agency. You can't build your roster via free agency. The draft is more important to a market like New Orleans than the vast majority of teams in the league. And they just, they're blowing their traps.

[Podcast Host]

Just taking the devil's advocate position. They could say, that's why we moved up 10 spots to get this guy in the draft that we thought would be great.

[Tim Bontemps]

The devil's advocate position doesn't change the fact that the process of the trade and the value proposition of the trade is terrible. Regardless of how good that I don't disagree with.

[Podcast Host]

I don't disagree with that.

[Tim Bontemps]

Dairy Queen may become good, he may become great, but that doesn't change the value proposition of the trade.

[Podcast Host]

And that fact is why despite Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver only having been there six months or less, you've got the management ranked 29th.

[Tim Bontemps]

Well, they also have an ownership group that's never paid the tax ever under Gail Benson and before. And Willie Green is in, I'd say an under fire coach.

[Bam McMahon]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host]

So those are, those are accurate statements. You know, those are accurate statements.

[Tim Bontemps]

And look, Troy Weaver, as we've talked about, did not exactly have a great tenure in Detroit. And although the drafted are fueling their turnaround, he had some good draft picks. He also did some other stuff that was not as good, which is why he's not still there with those draft picks. And Joe Dumars is a long ways from when he was building one of the great runs we've seen in this century. Back in the 2000s with Detroit. More hoop collective podcast after this.

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[Podcast Host]

All right, headed back to McMahon Way. One of the biggest fallers in this. In this. In addition to the Pelicans, the Dallas mavericks falling from 5th to 16th going down 11 spots. Now obviously this is related year over year to Luca decision.

[Bam McMahon]

Well, and that's Cooper.

[Podcast Host]

Flag floats. Nothing. I mean, what would it have been if they didn't hit the lottery?

[Bam McMahon]

Well, yeah, backwards into a generational talent.

[Tim Bontemps]

Yeah, I mean it would have been a lot lower. I mean you have. It's not just Luca leaving. It's also Kyrie Irving being on a torn acl and like, yes, maybe he'll play at some point this season. But this is a, an old roster that I don't think. I mean, I mean, hell, Nico Harrison has repeatedly said this is a three to four year time horizon. And that's from the GM talking about it. Right? So, yeah, Cooper, I would say probably boosted it a few spots by himself, but there's a lot of questions about the medium term future of the Mavs, especially when you're built around a guy, one guy with a torn ACL and another guy. And Anthony Davis, who is very, very good but also is consistently banged up.

[Bam McMahon]

And coming off of eye surgery, retina surgery. And look, the three to four year window would be through this. And that was Nico's. You know day after explanation of why they traded a five time first team all NBA selection who was just entering his prime to create and by the way months removed from a finals appearance.

[Tim Bontemps]

Right.

[Bam McMahon]

To create a three to four year championship window. And look, Nico has proof that it is a championship caliber team. Did you see those two and a half quarters against the Houston Rockets? But man, that's a, that's a tough one. And honestly I, I'm a little bit surprised that management is sitting there at 20 just because I mean it's the most controversial and pan trade in NBA history and it completely exposed the, the, the flaws in terms of. There were no checks and balances for Nico in the organization. I do think Dumont will be a bit more cautious moving forward. But you have an owner who now has a year and a half under his belt and is very much learning the NBA on the fly. That's, that's a predicament. And then you know, it's a fascinating deal because they just got. Is he is Cooper Flag the most hype American prospect since LeBron? I mean he's in the, he's in the short list for sure, but building around him will be challenging because of all the draft picks you gave up to successfully build around Luka. So there, there's a lot going on with the Mavericks.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah, you were, you were sounding the alarm that they were robbing Peter to pay Paul. Even before that trade.

[Bam McMahon]

Well, before the trade it was just. That's why to me I just couldn't. And I asked Nico straight up and he just gave me the defense wins championships explanation which is like okay, but that's, I'm asking about like the logic of you gave up all these draft picks and again just to spell it out. 27 to Charlotte for PJ Washington. There's top two protected, 28 is a pick swap ode to Oklahoma City. I think you can end up at the bottom of the first round there. That was to get a pick for the gaffer deal. 29 is from the Kyrie deal. In the Kyrie deal it's now the Rockets property. They do have the Lakers 29 pick and then 30 is a swap to San Antonio to salary dump Reggie Bullock to get Grant Williamson assigning trade. So again it's four years very early in Cooper Flag's career of not having control of your first round pick, which is, that's a very narrow path in terms of trying to build a championship caliber team as the future hall of Famers that you have in place now are going to be in their late 30s, you know, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson. And again you look at like San Antonio typically you get this kind of talent and you get Victor and then you get another chomp at the apple and Stefan Castle, Rookie of the Year and then they kind of lucked into getting another chomp at a big Apple in Dylan Harper. Where it's going to be Cooper Flagg.

[Podcast Host]

Next year, San Antonio. Because San Antonio, and I'm not, we don't have the time to talk about him really. But they were number 10 last year at the start of the season. Based largely on Victor's upside, they get the Rookie of the year in a non impressive class and then they get lucky and get a top three pick and there's still 10. You know, you sort of got them spinning their wheels. I would be stunned if the Mavericks spin their wheels. I, I predict. Oh God, I just said that word.

[Bam McMahon]

Oh.

[Podcast Host]

I suspect, I suspect that we're either going to watch Cooper Flag for this next six months and go holy Moses, he's the real deal. And regardless of what else is on the roster, regardless of the pick position, that next year they're going to be a top 10 team, or if Cooper Flagg looks like he's good but not great, they're going to be headed the other direction.

[Tim Bontemps]

I would disagree with that for two reasons. One, the draft assets are a problem for them going forward and two, I think even if that, I think Cooper's going to be awesome, but you still have the inherent problem that they have an old roster that isn't going the right direction on the age curve. And so Cooper could like, let's say to your point, I think Cooper's going to win Rookie of the Year. I think Cooper's going to be awesome. He's going to be a guy that I like. I would assume like Victor, like Luca, like these other guys will be in contention to be an all star as a second the second year in the league. But let's see how Kyrie Irving comes back from his torn acl. Let's see where Anthony Davis is in a year. Let's see if Derek Lively can stay healthy but see where Klay Thompson is at. In a year like this is a team with a lot of questions around them and they could easily be around the same spot they are next year just because again, Cooper Flag is awesome, but there's a lot of questions around him. I think your Victor point is well taken where Victor has more upside than anybody in the league. They have a lot of draft assets, they have Some level of young talent and they're still only 10th because of the other flaws that are.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah, I don't disagree with that ranking either. Like, I almost think it's, you know, you know how I feel about the Spurs. I love their future. I'm not so sold on their immediate future.

[Bam McMahon]

So, yeah, you know, Lively is going to be a huge key for the Mavericks because he is a young guy. He was, you know, a lottery pick. And I think you can argue he's a high lottery. He's proven to be a high lottery type of talent, but he's played 91 games in two years. Durability is certainly a concern. And he's no longer playing with a point guard who maximizes his talent. You know, the trade for Luka took away a lot of what Lively does best or at least, you know, doesn't maximize what Lively does best. And that's obviously pick and roll lob threat.

[Tim Bontemps]

We have talked about this some in the past, but I do think Cooper Flag is going to play a lot of point guard. And if you talk to people in the league there, there are a lot of people who would argue his best skill is passing. And I, I am curious to see if it. I'm not saying he's going to walk in and be Luka Doncic. He's obviously not. He's one of the best pick and roll operators ever. But I do think he's a guy that could walk in right away, especially on kind of a funky roster where he has the ball in his hands a lot and surprise people with his playmaking. And perhaps there is more of Derek Lively as a lob threat and Daniel Gafford is a lob threat without Luka than we might have guessed based off of the fact that Luke is not there.

[Bam McMahon]

I would be cautious, though, on counting on a kid who's going to be 18 when his NBA career starts to drive winning, right?

[Tim Bontemps]

Oh, I didn't say driving winning, to be clear. I think that'd be a challenge. I just think he might be a much better passer than people who haven't seen him play a lot. Think that's.

[Bam McMahon]

I'm just saying, Luke, as great as he was as a rookie was, they weren't got 98 of 100 votes for rookie of the year and one of the guys who went against him was Boomer Sooner for Trey Young. Totally in the bag. LeBron, you know, I mean, as great as he was, and I'm talking about.

[Podcast Host]

Like LeBron playing point guard in 2003. Four was a mess.

[Bam McMahon]

I'm talking about the two, the two best, probably teenagers that we've seen in the NBA.

[Podcast Host]

By the way, there was some comparison to that because LeBron wasn't like. LeBron came out of high school. Like, he obviously had his ball in his hand a lot, but it wasn't like he had a ton of reps at point guard.

[Tim Bontemps]

Yeah, right.

[Podcast Host]

He was just a great player. And the Cavs had no, the Cavs point guard position was a mess. I'm not going to go into that. But they, they turned to him because they needed somebody to play point guard who had some skill and they just didn't have it. They were playing Darius Miles, who was a four, as their point guard to start the season.

[Tim Bontemps]

And so for might be a four like, and, and that honestly like that. This is why when we talked about the Mavs a couple of weeks ago on the Southwest Division preview pod, I would take the under on 44 wins. I think it's going to be a struggle for them in this season in some respects, but I think it could also be the best thing for them and Cooper Flag long term, if you say, hey young fella, we don't really have a better option. We're going to give you the ball and yeah, you're going to make mistakes and turn the ball over some.

[Podcast Host]

But like, you have D' Angelo Russell, the Cavs, I'll say this, when LeBron was a rookie, the Gavs didn't have any. All respect to Kevin Ollie.

[Tim Bontemps]

Yeah, I mean, d' Angelo Russell's fine. But I, to me, the long term, the best long term thing for Cooper Flag and the Mavericks is to say, hey man, explore the studio space, play point guard, make mistakes, have the ball in your hands, make plays, breed defenses, figure stuff out. Because yeah, maybe Kyrie Irving will be back in March and this team will be a championship contending team. I think it's more likely their best chance to do that is next year when Kyrie in theory is fully healthy and they have everybody under, you know, having played a year together and Cooper's in his second year, etc. And you might as well expedite his development as much as possible and see if you can get there faster.

[Bam McMahon]

And by the way, Kyrie's not a pure point either. There would be some funny irony, right? If he's closer, he's closer. But if Cooper Flag starts his career as a point guard when Luka Donch did not, Luke Luca started his career as a small forward, which is why.

[Podcast Host]

That Kyrie was the perfect Player to play alongside LeBron and.

[Bam McMahon]

And Luca.

[Podcast Host]

Yes. I mean, it's just like. Anyway, neither here nor there. The one last team I want to talk about if you should come check out the future power rankings to see where your team ranks. If we didn't mention them, there's some other big movers. Philly, for example, moved from 4 to 19. We'll talk about that more later. Bon temps was the Boston Celtics. You had him number two last year, which is totally reasonable. We knew that they were headed for some money crunch. The money crunch bit and the Jayson Tatum injury happened all the way down to 13. My question is, a year from now, where do you think the Celtics are going to be? Because it's very hard to know because they, they weren't as they exited out of the money. They're, you know, the, the, the sort of. The material piece that they got was Anthony Simons. And, you know, like, if you look at who went out and who came back, Simons is the guy you're like, okay, that's the talent piece.

[Tim Bontemps]

And very clearly he's not even really. He's not even really the talent piece. He's the, he's the temporary money piece.

[Podcast Host]

Well, of the pieces. Of what. What. Of what came back. That's the talent that came back.

[Tim Bontemps]

Right.

[Podcast Host]

Okay. So. And you could clear their. You know, look, he may have a great year this year and they may change their mind, but he's on the last year of his contract, and they've already put him on the trade market to a certain extent.

[Tim Bontemps]

The goal is to get out of the luxury tax. That's clearly the goal.

[Podcast Host]

Right.

[Tim Bontemps]

Which is what they should be trying to do.

[Podcast Host]

But my point is they didn't trade for pieces that two years from now.

[Tim Bontemps]

No.

[Podcast Host]

Will rise back up.

[Tim Bontemps]

No.

[Podcast Host]

I don't even know if Simon's. When the team come to trade deadline, much less a year from now.

[Tim Bontemps]

So if he is, they're. They're probably going to be disappointed because they. It's. It's likely then they won't have accomplished their goal of getting out of the tax and avoiding the repeater tax, which, again, based off where they're at, is what they should be trying to do. Right.

[Podcast Host]

And I will say this. It's not in the current era in the aprons, having a reset year to get out of the repeater is not necessarily a bad idea. Not that they would have planned it. So the question is how much can this. Can the Celtics realistically rebound with the hand that they're holding right now? Bottoms, you have them at 13th. This is what you're essentially saying. You're not 100% sure how they're going to rebound. That's what this 13th because this is not about this season, this is about the next three.

[Tim Bontemps]

I would say they're 13th in large part because one of the five or six best players in the league is not going to play this year with a torn Achilles. Right like that. If Jason Tatum was healthy. And again, this is where it's hard to really look at the Celtics of the last six months and really have a complete assessment of where they're at because they could have easily still gone on to win that series against the Knicks. I'm not saying they would have for sure, but they could have. And if they had won the final three games, what's that?

[Bam McMahon]

You're going to get trash thrown at you in the streets of New York.

[Tim Bontemps]

Well, listen, if the Knicks would, the Celtics would have been favored to win each of those three games. And if they'd won that series, they would have been favored to win that series against Indiana and make the finals. Not saying they would have done it. They might have easily lost Game 5. But the Celtics going into the playoffs were the clear favorites to get out of the East. They were co favorites probably to win the title. And I don't know if they make the moves that they make this summer. If they had won the title or if they had got to the Finals. But obviously they didn't. Obviously Jason Tatum is hurt and as you said, they took the opportunity.

[Podcast Host]

They probably would have taken steps to reduce their payroll, but they wouldn't have tried to get out of the tax.

[Tim Bontemps]

No, they. Their team would look much different and be more talented and more expensive.

[Bam McMahon]

Well then the Tatum injury made difficult decisions a lot easier because it's.

[Tim Bontemps]

That's right.

[Bam McMahon]

Naturally. Going to be a gap year. Year.

[Tim Bontemps]

That's right. So this gets back to your question of where will they be in a year, right. Let's assume Jason Tatum is fully healthy coming back. He's probably going to need some time to ramp back up to being fully Jason Tatum. But I don't think there's a lot of reason. Look at Kevin Durant, right? There's no reason to think Jason Tatum will not become a top five six player in the league again. He's young, he's obviously tremendous worker. He's already out of the walking boot moving around. So let's bank on that. So you've got him, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White next year. That's an awfully good foundation moving forward. I think what will be interesting to see over the next 12 months is now that they've gotten down near the tax, are there some moves the Celtics can make to add talent around those guys on the margins to deepen their roster out? Some of that is can the Luke Garzas and Josh Meinitz and some of these guys that they picked up off the scrap heap this summer show that they are guys who can be contributors moving forward? Can say a Jordan Walsh, a guy who has shown some flashes but is a young guy who didn't get much of a chance to play the last couple of years outside the G League, can he become a guy that's a good 3 and D wing maybe? Right. Some of it's that kind of stuff and then some of it is, you know, can they do they have a really rough season? Do they maybe miss the playoffs and get lucky in the lottery a la what happened with Dallas? Like they're one Jalen Brown or even Derrick White injury away I would say from being in pretty rough shape roster wise even in the east.

[Bam McMahon]

And fortune favors the bold. So you know 1.8% could always cash out.

[Tim Bontemps]

I mean it's true but like it's, you know, I mean nobody would have sat there in April and when the the Mavericks lost in the 89 games said oh man, Dallas is headed for jumping up to number one other than Nico Harrison and the plan everybody didn't see. So you know, like if, if they get lucky and jump into the top four and get Darren Peterson or AJ DeBancer or Nate of men or one of these dudes to go with their guys. Well yeah, then obviously things will look a lot different. So to your point though, this ranking will probably be largely determined on what the roster looks like on March 1 and where they sit in the standings on March 1 or even February 15 after the trade deadline and what they can get back in deals and what they do to move things around, I.

[Bam McMahon]

Will say it's going to be tough not to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference for the Celtics. Just being real.

[Tim Bontemps]

The Celtics don't have a lot of depth, especially up front right now. And again, like if Jalen Brown and Derrick White are healthy, yeah, I think they're going to be pretty good. But if they're not, Jaylen Brown should.

[Podcast Host]

Be a guy and I know that he had off season knee surgery, but he should be a guy that you try to get in your fantasy league.

[Bam McMahon]

I knew when I love him when.

[Tim Bontemps]

He gives his fantasy, he loves to get to fantasy advice because, like, you.

[Podcast Host]

Know, somebody's got to score and he wants to, you know, he's the guy who, he's got to have a mission. And this year he can't have the mission he's had the last three or four years, which is to win the whole thing. So he's going to be the lead.

[Tim Bontemps]

The league in scoring.

[Podcast Host]

All right. Thank you to Bon Temps. Thank you to McMahon. Thank you to Jackson and Rafa for producing. Thank you, Felicity and watching the Hoop Collective. We'll talk to you next week.

[Bam McMahon]

Adios, amigos.

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[Tim Bontemps]

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