← Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
NBA Western Conference Win Total Reaction
00:37:06
NBA Western Conference Win Total Reaction
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- [00:01]
Brian Windhorst
Not all meals are created equal. For instance, breakfast has the spicy egg McMuffin for a limited time and lunch doesn't. McDonald's breakfast comes first. Hello and welcome to the Hoop Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA, which we are doing sometimes before this actually runs. Because this is one of those evergreen podcasts. We're just going to be straight up about it. Joining me from Los Angeles is Tim Bonteps.
- [00:35]
Tim Bontemps
Hello everybody.
- [00:35]
Brian Windhorst
And joining me from a gorgeous looking vacation destination in the Pacific northwest is Ban McMahon.
- [00:41]
Marc Stein
Howdy, partners.
- [00:42]
Brian Windhorst
All right, so we did the Eastern Conference over unders from ESPN bet now that most of the east off season maneuvers have happened. So now we're going to take a look at the Western Conference over unders and we're going to go in alphabetical order and we're going to get it in alphabetical order correct out of the gate, unlike last time when I botched it. So that means we start McMahon's hometown, the Dallas Mavericks without Kyrie Irving for some period of time. We're not really sure when, but with Cooper flag. So McMahon, the Dallas Mavericks over under in a very competitive Western Conference is 40 and a half wins by ESPN bet.
- [01:22]
Marc Stein
I've been asked so many times this summer, are the Dallas Mavericks contenders and the over under is sub.500. Something's not squaring up there, right? I don't think the Dallas Mavericks are contenders this season. I do think there'll be better than a.500 team though. Yeah, obviously. Look, their upside is the primary factor. There is going to be the return to form of Kyrie Irving, which is a difficult bet to make just simply because It's a torn ACL for a smallish guard in his mid-30s. Those typically, it takes a, you know, an 18 month period for a guy to get back to form. And If Kyrie's not that 25, 5 and 5 guy, I think the upside of this team is, is fairly limited. But I do think this is going to be a very good defensive team. And offensively I just, it's interesting, like AD's still a premier superstar type of player. They're. They're gonna have to kind of bludgeon teams a lot. Offensively, they're gonna have to beat teams up. They're not a very skilled team without Kyrie, but again, I think they can bully ball their way to more than 40.5 wins.
- [02:47]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, I mean this is a really hard one because they do have a lot of talent to McMahon's point. But the Kyrie thing is a giant question. When is he going to be able to play? You know, they only really have d' Angelo Russell other than him as a guy you're going to give the ball to and handle the ball at all.
- [03:03]
Marc Stein
Which I'll move contraire. Cooper Flag. Go on.
- [03:06]
Tim Bontemps
Oh, yeah. I mean, playing. I think there. There's a good chance they're going to probably play Cooper Flag at the point a lot. I think that would be great for Cooper Flag. I don't think that's going to be great for wins. 25, 26 season. Anthony Davis is a great player who is hurt a lot and is already having surgeries for things. I'm going to take the under. I don't. I just don't. The Mavs have a ton of talent and if you told me that in Kyrie is back in and fully ready to go in late, late late March and like down the stretch of the season he's playing and they're all healthy, they could be a beast in the playoffs with the size they have and the physicality they can play with and they could be just a monster team to have to handle for somebody as a team getting out of the plane and getting in as a seven or eight seed. But from the baseline they're starting at, especially with how hard the west is going to be, it just feels like there's a lot more ways for this to go under this number than there are for the Mavs to end up with, you know, 50 wins and be the team that people have. Like you said, we've gotten asked a lot are the Mavs contenders over the last month. It's like, I think there's a lot more passing them when in 38 games than there are to them winning 48 to 50 games.
- [04:23]
Brian Windhorst
This is a tough one to come out of the gate with. I agree. This number is begging you to take the over, right? Like they're begging you. They're like saying take the over, but, you know, they're not stupid. The thing is, is that while Cooper Flag is very exciting, you guys have heard me say this. If you listen to the pod, it's. It's unusual, downright rare for a rookie to truly drive winning, especially right out of the gate, because they're begging me to take the over so badly. I'm sort of leaning toward the under. Even though if you said to me the Mavericks have a winning roster, I would say yes. So I lean under. But this is one of those ones that we could come back on and. And be. And look foolish. I think possibly. But we'll See? All right, Denver Nuggets up next. This is a number that I'm also surprised by in a, in a conference that's, you know, that's very competitive. They are 53 and a half as they're over under. I, I have seen a lot. And you know, the funny thing about this is I've been a big proponent of Cam Johnson being an underrated player over the years to the point where Bontemps and I have sort of locked horns about it. But there's been this belief that the swap out Cam Johnson for Michael Porter was this huge win for Denver. And well, first off, cam has averaged 56 games for the last three seasons. Now this last year in Brooklyn, there was a lot of nights where it was 50, 50 where he was shut down. So I think he played 57 last year. I think he was actually healthier than that. But he is, you know, he shoots at a high percentage, he defends. Michael Porter was a good player for the Nuggets, okay. He played 77 games through injury this last year. He played 81 games the year before. So he was very available. He put up, he made a ton of three pointers for this team at a high volume, 40% three point shooter the last couple of years. I know he underachieved in some areas, but, you know, I'm not, you know, checking the box. That that's an automatic upgrade. You know, defensively there's a good chance of that. So 53 and a half is a big number for the Western Conference. But bond temps. Go ahead.
- [06:38]
Tim Bontemps
What did you end up deciding?
- [06:39]
Brian Windhorst
I go at the end. That's my privilege.
- [06:43]
Tim Bontemps
Give an answer. I'm taking the under. I don't think they got much better this summer, you know, and as man have argued about their bench moves all summer, they won 50 games last year. I don't think they're winning four more games in the west. You know, I don't think they're going to be. I certainly think they're going to be bad, but I think they're a low 50 win team. I don't think they're getting over the number.
- [07:10]
Marc Stein
They were 46 and 24 when Joker played last year. That would be a 54 win pace. I believe that bring in Jonas Valencunas is going to allow Joker to play more games. That has shut him down for two or three weeks late last season because he was just so beat up. It's like he could have played but they just had.
- [07:29]
Brian Windhorst
How many cuts did he have on his arm throughout the course of the year and how it gets cut on his arm like no one I've ever seen.
- [07:34]
Marc Stein
And that was the least of his problems. You know, he had the swollen elbow, he had the ankle stuff going on. He was just beat to hell playing the most minutes of his career. And I look, I thought they had a great off season. Don't tell me what Bruce Brown did the last couple years. Tell me how he fits with Joe.
- [07:51]
Brian Windhorst
Fair enough.
- [07:52]
Marc Stein
Tell me how he fits with Denver. I think Hardaway gives him that volume three point shooter that they've needed for their bench. I'll take the over here.
- [08:03]
Brian Windhorst
Well, a big part of this comes down to Jamal Murray's health. If Jamal Murray has a healthy season, they're absolutely a 54, 56 win team. I'm going to take the under. Not. I think they could have won the last three titles, maybe not all three in a row, but like they lost in game Sevens, and if they had won the two series they lost in game Sevens, I can see a pathway where they could have won the title in both the last two years. So I'm certainly not putting them down as a team. I think they are. Their upside is incredible. I'm just not doing backflips thinking they're dramatically better. So I think they're a 50 win team. I'm not sure they're a 54 win team. All right. Golden State warriors. Big number, man. In my view, big number. This is again, this one looks like they're begging you to go one way. 46. Six and a half for the warriors again, 22 and 5.
- [08:53]
Marc Stein
That's what I was gonna say with.
- [08:55]
Brian Windhorst
Butler, Draymond and Steph in the lineup, and they were up 1 0. Having one on the road in the semis in the second round last year against the Timberwolves, when Steph hurts his hamstring and gets shut down, they lose the next four.
- [09:10]
Marc Stein
So they've obviously got all of their summer business still to be played out. As we're recording this maybe by the time this comes out. Al Horford's on the Golden State Warriors. The Kaminga situation has been resolved one way or another. 22 and 5 certainly is a hell of a lot better than a 46 and a half win pace.
- [09:33]
Brian Windhorst
True.
- [09:34]
Marc Stein
God, I'm hesitant, though, and I'm hesitant because of, you know, are those guys going to be able to, like, how many games are they gonna be able to play together? Are they going to be able to stay healthy at. At their age? And then, honestly, man, if Kaminga is on their roster, when the season starts, I don't like that at all. Again, I don't want to go into too much depth because that might be played out by the time this this comes in, but that has got potential circus written all over it. I'm going to hesitantly take the under here.
- [10:10]
Tim Bontemps
I'm taking the over there. One more games than this last year with Jimmy Butler not really on the team. I do think they're going to eventually have Al Horford on the team. He will be a nice piece for them. You know, they could have a ton of injury issues and go the other way. Certainly possible, but I think they have enough depth to withstand some of that and I do expect Jonathan Kaminga to be on the team and I do think he'll there will be motivation on both sides for him to look good, shall we say, to move him on in the trade. So I will, I will take the over while acknowledging that this could end up being a complicated one for health reasons.
- [10:51]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, look, there's going to be a bunch of teams squished together in the West. You know, there may not much be much of a difference between a 48 win team and a 46 win team in the West. 45 win team. I will say this. In the Eastern Conference when I was on the fence, I went over with associated with the with the winning teams because I just felt that way. You know, the West. I will lean under. So I'm just going to lean under on this one again.
- [11:13]
Marc Stein
More Hoop Collective podcast after this.
- [11:17]
Brian Windhorst
We all know breakfast is an important part of your day, but sometimes when you're traveling for business, you end up staying at a hotel that doesn't offer any. And you know what happens? You grab a cup of coffee and skip the meal entirely. We've all been there. But if you book a room at La Quinta by Wyndham, you can enjoy their free Bright side Breakfast featuring delicious baked goods, fruit, eggs, yogurt and waffles. And really, who doesn't want to start their day off with a fresh, fresh hot waffle? Tonight La Quinta tomorrow you shine bookdirect.com on WhatsApp.
- [11:45]
Marc Stein
No one can see or hear your personal messages. Whether it's a voice call message or sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password.
- [11:57]
Brian Windhorst
In the family chat or trading those.
- [11:59]
Marc Stein
Late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay between you, your friends and your family.
- [12:07]
Brian Windhorst
No one else, not even us.
- [12:09]
Marc Stein
WhatsApp message privately with everyone, you've seen.
- [12:13]
Tim Bontemps
The headlines, heard the debates.
- [12:14]
Brian Windhorst
The three point ball has created a monotonous rhythm to the game. Has the three pointer ruined basketball?
- [12:20]
Tim Bontemps
And how did we get here?
- [12:22]
Brian Windhorst
The rise of the three point shot can be partially traced to an eccentric Kansas genius named Martin Manley, whose story.
- [12:28]
Tim Bontemps
Diminished didn't turn out quite the way he imagined.
- [12:31]
Marc Stein
I decided I wanted to have one of the most organized goodbyes in history.
- [12:35]
Brian Windhorst
30 for 30 podcast presents Chasing Basketball Heaven. Available now wherever you get your podcasts. All right, Houston Rockets up next. Big number here, Big off season where they trade for Kevin durant. Bon Temps 40, 54 and a half wins for the Houston Rockets as the over under.
- [13:01]
Tim Bontemps
I've talked a lot about how much I love the Rockets off season. I still love the Rockets off season. I'm going to take the under. I'm a little concerned about Kevin's health just in terms of getting regular season playing games. You know, they've got, you know, Fred Van Vliet. We'll see how many games he's going to play if he doesn't get banged up. I, I do think they're know they've still got to have some growth from some of the young guys. Reed Shepherd's going to have a much bigger role. How's that going to go? You know, they probably played above their heads last year, getting to 52 wins. And like you in the West, I think we're going to have another big glut of teams all in about the same record range. So I could see a world where the rockets go over 54 and a half, but I, I think it's more likely that they end up somewhere back around 50 and I'm going to take the under.
- [13:50]
Marc Stein
Yeah, I'd agree with that. And the point of bringing in Kevin Durant was about the playoffs, not the regular seasons. You know, it's about addressing their glaring void of go to guy down the stretch of, of close playoff games. If he plays 65 games in the regular season. Awesome. I would anticipate them airing on the side of caution there. I think they'll be a top four, probably top three seed. I just don't know if there's going to be more than one team that's that's got 55 plus wins in the West.
- [14:25]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, I really like what the Rockets have done. It's just a big number. A lot of things got to go your way to get 55 plus wins. Again, I'm gonna hedge under not a commentary on the Rockets, just a commentary on the strength of the West. I think everyone's gonna kind of sort of move more towards the middle just because of, you know, some teams are going to take some losses. We're going to have a whole, we're going to have a run of those types of teams right here. All right, LA Clippers coming up next. I had to decide who was first between the Clippers or Lakers. Clippers 47 and a half. They really addressed their depth with some older guys but they got them in value. McMahon the LA Clippers 47 and a half.
- [15:10]
Marc Stein
I'm taking over. They won 50 last year with Kawhi not playing a ton of games. Kawhi will enter this season, knock on wood, as healthy as he's entered a season in quite some time. I think they've got, you know we talked a lot. I think they got better this off season. So I'll, I'll, I'll take over. I think they, they win 50 games again.
- [15:35]
Tim Bontemps
Same here. I love the Clippers off season. I don't know if I love their ceiling in the playoffs but I think they're sitting in the regular season is pretty high because they have a ton of good players and you know James Harden has shown he's in a regular season wins machine for a long time so I'm taking the over.
- [15:51]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, they're built to withstand the regular season even if they have different guys miss games. They're super deep. They're, they're built to win. You know they won 50 games last year and they were playing at a higher than that pace. They were probably playing at a two seed pace for the last quarter third of the season and so while I hedge downward I like, I think this number is too low and the Clippers go over. I think they're again knock on wood without major injury. I think they're definitely the 50 win team Louisiana. LA Lakers again addressed some of their depth to get a new starting center and DeAndre Ayton get to buyout players and Ayton and Marcus Smart. I would love to reassess this bond temps after I see Luka play in Eurobasket because I think the key to their season is whether Luka returns to MVP contender form which we're all hoping. Slash expecting 48 and a half. You know when there's Laker bets they're always setting them for all the Laker fans who would bet on them. So you have, you know Laker bets are tough. It's very hard to get value in laker bets. But 48 and a half the over.
- [16:54]
Tim Bontemps
Under for the Lakers, this is right around. This is a really good number for me. I think they're going to be a high 40 win team somewhere. I'm going to take the under slightly. Just baking in LeBron health. LeBron drama. Let's see what happens with Marcus Smart. We talked about him on the last pod like that. We did. Can he get back to the level he was at a couple years ago? What are they going to get from Deandre Ayton? There's enough questions to go slightly under, but they're. They're right in the same group as all these teams. Like, I think we're going to be in a similar situation last year where there's going to be seven, eight teams all in a band from 52 to 47, 48. And I think the Lakers will be right in that mix with all these other teams.
- [17:41]
Marc Stein
There's enough questions, but I believe the Lakers will have drastically improved play at the center position, which, look, they were starting Jackson Hayes there last year. And I believe they will have drastically improved play at the point guard position because Luka was a shell of himself and he's got that revenge bot going. And Lean Luca is a mambo jumbo to deal with. So I'll, I'll take the over here.
- [18:10]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, I'm betting on Luka being healthier and being better and more settled. The LeBron thing is a big factor. It's a bit of an X factor. Um, but the one thing I'll say, one thing I'll say about LeBron, he has a history of which is fulfilling his contracts and I say he fulfills his contract and I say they go over. But, you know, your points upon temps are reasonable. Memphis Grizzlies, while everybody was taking a. A step back. I'm sorry, a lot of people taking stuff forward in the west is there's an arms race. The Grizzlies take a step backward a little bit. Maybe they would dispute that because maybe they think Kentavius, Caldwell Pope is.
- [18:46]
Marc Stein
No, they wouldn't.
- [18:47]
Brian Windhorst
Okay. Anyway, they trade Desmond Bain. Their number comes way down. 40 and a half. I didn't run the number of games Jaws played for the last few years, but it's not a high number. McMahon. 40 and a half.
- [19:02]
Marc Stein
Memphis Grizzlies medical update.
- [19:05]
Brian Windhorst
Oh, God.
- [19:06]
Marc Stein
There's, you know, look, man, Edie's probably not going to be ready for the start of the season. We'll see about Jaren Jackson Jr. You know, as he's also coming off of an operation that, that Lisa is going to put his status for the start of training camp and in significant doubt. It's a reset type of season for them in a loaded Western Conference. I think under here is a, is a safe play.
- [19:35]
Tim Bontemps
I'm taking the over. I don't think they're eight wins worse. I, you know, obviously if Jaren is out for a big chunk of the season, I will, I will not look correct on that. But I think, I still think they've got a pretty good amount of talent. I'm not saying they're going to get back to 48 wins again, but I don't think they're going to be sub.500. So I'll take the over.
- [19:55]
Brian Windhorst
I agree. I don't think this is a roster of a losing team, but taking the over here is a bet on their health. Tough bet to make, but I don't think they're a losing team. So I will bet on the over. Just don't feel great about it. Minnesota Timberwolves back to back Western Conference finalists. They lose Nikhil Alexander Walker. Bring back everybody else. They are wagering on the improvement of some of their young players. Terrence Shannon Jr. Showed some promise in the playoffs. McMahon. Minnesota Timberwolves 50 and a half, 49.
- [20:27]
Marc Stein
Win team last year. I don't think they got better during the off season. I think the Western Conference around them did. So, you know, I think they're probably still a top six team in the west, but I don't think they're a 50 plus win team.
- [20:44]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, I'm, I'm taking the under. I don't think they got better. Third 49 wins last year. Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley. Are you older? Probably worse. I still think they're going to be good, but I think there's enough reason to think they trend down a little bit that they're going to be under that number.
- [21:00]
Marc Stein
By the way, Gobert not playing Eurobasket, I believe for the first time since he's been in the league. So he'll at least be fresher going into the season.
- [21:09]
Brian Windhorst
That's interesting. Okay, so I would say here again, my rule if I'm on the fence is to lean under. So I'm going to lean under. I will just say the actions over words. The, the Timberwolves front office felt that they should chase Durant the trade deadline. Although it was a bit of a fantasy being in the second apron. They chased him again this summer. So, you know, I think they, you know, they think they may need roster modification and I would keep that in mind. The contract that they traded that they signed Julius Randall to I think is a tradable contract. So maybe he sticks there, but I think that's worth pointing out.
- [21:43]
Marc Stein
I will just add a little bit of optimism in that. It took them much of last season to kind of figure out how things fit after that massive trade. It started camp.
- [21:55]
Brian Windhorst
Right. But then they still look to trading for Duran again.
- [21:58]
Marc Stein
I know, I know, but I'm just saying, like obviously they finished. They were a better team within the last season than they were at the start.
- [22:04]
Brian Windhorst
New Orleans Pelicans filled with question marks this is an awfully low number. I'll bet the Pelicans fans did not like seeing this number. Tim Bond. It was it. Who's it? McMahon's Turner Bond Tempster. I lost track. I think It's.
- [22:15]
Marc Stein
Who cares?
- [22:16]
Brian Windhorst
30 and a half. 30 and a half. Dejante Murray obviously a key piece that's out, I expect for a big chunk of the season. Recovering from the Achilles Zion with always perpetual question mark. They make the trade to move off CJ McCollum new front office there with Joe Dumars bond temps 30 and a.
- [22:42]
Tim Bontemps
Half team is going to be motivated to win games because they traded their draft pick. However, I don't think they're good enough to win games and they have a lot of injury questions. So I think they're going to be under 30 wins and I think the Hawks get a really good pick.
- [22:54]
Brian Windhorst
Wow.
- [22:56]
Marc Stein
Is Jeremiah Fear starting at point guard for them?
- [22:58]
Brian Windhorst
Zero fears. What an awesome, awesome jersey.
- [23:01]
Tim Bontemps
I would assume so.
- [23:03]
Marc Stein
He's. He's 18. They're not winning 30 plus games in the Western Conference and who knows if.
- [23:11]
Tim Bontemps
Zion Williamson is going to play and you know, what are they. What is their overall roster going to look like? You know, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones both are coming off labrum surgeries. We'll see where they're at. I. Yeah, I don't. It's. It's going to be interesting because they're going to be very motivated to win games late and so maybe they squeak over this by continuing to win games down the stretch, but it's hard to see it.
- [23:33]
Marc Stein
Well, they got zero fears and zero chance a lot of nights next year.
- [23:37]
Brian Windhorst
Well, you winning with the young guard, that's how you lose, man. So you're going under McMahon.
- [23:44]
Marc Stein
Yeah.
- [23:48]
Brian Windhorst
I think that they're a better team than this, but you guys present a compelling case. It's hard to. How can you have confidence in them? Boy, 30 is a low number.
- [23:59]
Marc Stein
You know who has confidence in them? The Atlanta Hawks.
- [24:03]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, they bet with their with their feet. The Hawks keep making trades with the Pelicans.
- [24:09]
Marc Stein
I would do.
- [24:12]
Brian Windhorst
I'm gonna say over, but I don't feel good about it. God, I just. 30 is a low number. Oklahoma City Thunder, defending champion. They have 14 of their 15.
- [24:22]
Marc Stein
Jackson wants me to reassess fears. Turns 19 before the season starts.
- [24:27]
Brian Windhorst
All right then in that case, you're going way over.
- [24:31]
Marc Stein
More Hoop Collective podcast after this.
- [24:34]
Brian Windhorst
ESPN fantasy football is more than just a game. It's thousands of stories in the making.
- [24:39]
Marc Stein
Like that one league that hasn't missed.
- [24:41]
Brian Windhorst
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- [24:42]
Tim Bontemps
Or the one that decides their draft.
- [24:44]
Brian Windhorst
Order by competing in a legit athletic combine. Or the league where if you come.
- [24:47]
Tim Bontemps
In last, you have to sit in a closet and assemble a 300 piece.
- [24:51]
Marc Stein
Puzzle in the dark.
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Tim Bontemps
Yeah, that stuff really actually happened.
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Brian Windhorst
The football may be fantasy, but the stories are 100% real. So download the ESPN fantasy app, sign up and start your story today. Insights with IBM WatsonX.
- [25:06]
Marc Stein
Our WNBA champion.
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Tim Bontemps
We can't get enough of the WNBA. A fresh draft class has arrived.
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Brian Windhorst
Dallas wing select Paige Beckers. Teams stacked with new talent.
- [25:20]
Marc Stein
Julia's a complete dog.
- [25:21]
Brian Windhorst
The Valkyries take flight in the bay. Ridiculous.
- [25:26]
Tim Bontemps
We've got more stars and more heat than ever.
- [25:29]
Brian Windhorst
WNBA on espn presented by Google.
- [25:33]
Tim Bontemps
We can't get enough.
- [25:39]
Brian Windhorst
All right. Thunder, big number here. They bring back their whole team. 62 1/2 McMahon.
- [25:47]
Marc Stein
It ain't like they went all in to get to 68 last year. Chet missed more than half the season. You know they.
- [25:54]
Brian Windhorst
Hartenstein missed.
- [25:55]
Marc Stein
Yeah, he missed. He missed a ton of times. You know they, they, they managed Caruso's minutes very carefully. They prioritized development of guys like AJ Mitchell early in the season. I'm just glad I didn't say A.J. johnson after the way I was botching brothers names. I kept calling him AJ Johnson or that said. Anyways, I think they win 60 some odd games and if it's going to be some odd, I'll go ahead and say it'll be more than 63.
- [26:19]
Tim Bontemps
I'm taking, I'm taking the over. Yeah, like for all the reasons you said they, they didn't go all in last year and they won 68. So I don't think there's six wins worse. So I'm taking the over.
- [26:31]
Brian Windhorst
They're a winning machine at full power with continuity. I mean holy hell.
- [26:36]
Tim Bontemps
And they should be better than last year just in general. Not saying everybody's games but everybody's their young team. That's, that's all got more experience and they're probably going to have better health.
- [26:46]
Brian Windhorst
And everybody's paid relatively.
- [26:48]
Marc Stein
I mean, the, the, the, the one reason to doubt is championship hangover, I guess. But these guys don't even drink. How can you be hungover?
- [27:01]
Tim Bontemps
I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm hard over.
- [27:04]
Brian Windhorst
I can't go under on the Thunder. The number's too reasonable to go under. So I, I think they're begging you to take the over, which makes me skittish. But over Phoenix Suns, Bontemps, 31 and a half. They bought out Bradley Beal. They do the deal to move out Durant, bring in Jalen Green, who they intend to play alongside Devin Booker and their backcourt, new coach, rookie head coach Jordan Ott, and, come on, Mallewatch, their lottery pick that they got in the Durant deal, 31 and a half.
- [27:36]
Tim Bontemps
I'm going to take the over somewhat reluctantly. This is another team that's going to be motivated to win games. They obviously don't have control of their pick. You know, I think, I think that they are a team. I would equate them to what Portland did last year. Portland, a team that we'll get to in a second that I don't think is all that good. But down the stretch last year they won a lot of games and they went, they got to 36 wins because there's a lot of teams not trying the back half of the year. I suspect Phoenix will be in a similar situation. I don't know if they win a lot more than 31 and a half. I could see him winning 33, but I don't think they're going to be in the 20s unless Devin Booker misses a ton of time, which, you know, Devin Booker has missed a good amount of time over the past few years. But I will, as I said, reluctantly take the over on them.
- [28:27]
Marc Stein
I'll take the over. I think they're like 13th best team in the Western Conference, but the 13th best team, the Western Conference won 34 games last year. I, I would like to say that obviously them, Payne, Devin Booker is a reason to put a smile on his face, but you're doing this book at point guard thing again. And it's not that he can't play point guard, but it's it, it takes away from his strengths and it puts too much on his plate. They've got to figure something else out there sooner than later.
- [29:04]
Brian Windhorst
Well, they think that their big weakness last year was weakness at the rim. The interior defense. They obviously soured big time on Yusef Nurkic shipped him out. They think that, you know, having Mark Williams and come on Malu watch will make a difference for them defensively. I don't know.
- [29:25]
Marc Stein
Well, having Dylan Brooks will do, I'll say that.
- [29:27]
Brian Windhorst
Well, that's true and don't forget that. So they think they're going to be improved in that end of the court and maybe they're going to be improved enough to get a. You know, I know I think they're a non playoff team but I think they're better than 31 wins. So I'll go over. Portland Trailblazers. Bonsems. You just mentioned them. Strange off season. They trade and take on $100 million for Drew Holiday which is an indication of wanting to go now. Then they buy out Deandre Ayton and they signed Dame Lillard. Doing a great feel good move but he won't help them this year. I mean at least not on the court. They got $40 million in money. The guys who are not going, they're leaning into their young guys, especially their young bigs Donovan Clingan and young Han. So man. Trailblazers 33 and a half.
- [30:19]
Marc Stein
I'll go slightly over. They were an elite defensive team statistically for the second half of last season. I think the last 50 games might.
- [30:28]
Brian Windhorst
Even been ranked number one with a extension eligible, I believe.
- [30:33]
Marc Stein
Yeah, I mean I think there'll be a really tough defensive team and a really yucky offensive team. Yeah, I think they're a 35ish win team. I'm a bit confused on the, on the bigger picture in Portland other than I just, it's, it's just a weird roster. You know, Jeremy Grant being there is a weird thing. But yeah, I, I, I think the 35 is one team. So I'll go slightly over.
- [31:05]
Tim Bontemps
I'm going to go slightly under. I don't really buy what they were the second half of last year. They could repeat that again but like you said, I, there's just a lot of stuff here that's odd with the roster. I'm not sure how it's all going to fit together. I think the team we're about to talk about is probably going to win more games than they did last year which will take some wins away just in general. So I'm going to, I'm going to go under on Portland.
- [31:27]
Brian Windhorst
Is Scoot Henderson going to make a third year jump? Because if he does it would be a huge boon to them. I just, I haven't, you know, I don't have a good feel that that's going to happen. So if I'm on the, I'm on the hedge here, I'm going to lean under on 33 and a half. But you know they did defend and they have built the team and Drew Holiday is a winning player. So we'll see. Sacramento Kings who had finally had momentum in their organization and then for reasons that are still not clear, they started making interesting moves. Their starting point guard has gone from de' Aaron Fox to Dennis Schroeder. They do have some assets from the, from the spurs who are going to be a very good team probably for the next decade. But hey, they got three first for him and they've swapped out their head coach and There are now 36 and a half bond temps.
- [32:20]
Tim Bontemps
Over, under, under. I don't like where the direction of Kings are headed in and you know I, I don't, I don't feel good about the situation overall.
- [32:30]
Marc Stein
So saying under yeah, under I think it, it's messy again in Sacramento. It's a Vivek team all like top to bottom front office coaching staff on through the roster. The VEC teams don't win games.
- [32:45]
Brian Windhorst
Ouch. Vivek teams don't win games under 36 and a half. I'm the same San Antonio spurs. Obviously their, their season was blunted last year by Victor Wembanyama's injury and or blood clot. He's now been cleared to play. They ended up flipping that into end up turning that into the number two overall pick. A lot of excitement around Dylan Harper. They have the reigning rookie of the year Stefan Castle McMahon 43 1/2 winning team playoff. This probably a play in level 43 wins in the west for the San Antonio Spurs.
- [33:21]
Marc Stein
You know I love me a Spurs over baby.
- [33:25]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, we've been waiting to get to this one all day.
- [33:28]
Marc Stein
Listen man, I think this is a team that we're two or three years away from talking about them as a contender. That means I believe they're going to take a significant step this season. I think they will be a playoff team this season. Might have to crack it via the play in but I think there'll be a playoff team this season. I like the direction of the spurs and I think they make a nice leap this year. And let's knock on wood that Victor is healthy. If he's healthy, I think he's certainly all NBA and potentially first team, all NBA.
- [34:06]
Tim Bontemps
As we have talked about before, if the spurs are in the real playoff mix in the West I think that, I think that Victor is going to be in the MVP discussion, I'd be first team all NBA. I think this is a great number. I'm going to lean the under. Combination of Victor's health being a bit up in the air. Let's see if he can get through the whole season. And as we've talked about before, this roster is just very strange. They have a lot of. Well, no, I mean it's talented, but they have a lot of young guys are going to be playing a lot of minutes. Dylan Harper and Safon Castle and Dearon Fox have to try to fit together. That fit is not clear. It's not clean at all. So how is that going to go? I think they're a little light on the wing. I, I think there's a world where Victor takes a massive leap forward and they win 4748 games and they are right in the mix for a top succeed. I think it's more likely they are in the low to mid-40s and probably right around this number. And like I said, the combination mainly of leaning into these young guys will have me take the. The under on it. But yeah, like the spurs. The spurs have the 8th best, the 8th highest total in the West. So if that holds to form, we'll have Thunder spurs in the first round, which I would just like to see that so that to happen. And I, I think that them being in the low 40s is low to mid-40s about right. So I'll. I'll lean the under.
- [35:45]
Brian Windhorst
All right. I'm going to dust off my old slogan, which is we don't put ceilings on Victor Wembanyama. I'll take the over. Utah Jazz 18 and a half. I don't know what, what, what, what you want to say here, Bontemps.
- [35:57]
Tim Bontemps
I'm taking the over. 18 and a half is very low.
- [36:00]
Brian Windhorst
I agree.
- [36:01]
Tim Bontemps
I, I certainly, I certainly don't think that the Jazz are winning 10 more games than that. I don't think they're even winning five more games than that. But I don't think they're winning 18 games again this year. So I will, I will assume they get to 20 and I will take the over.
- [36:17]
Marc Stein
I don't want to talk about the Jazz.
- [36:20]
Brian Windhorst
Just take the over. Under.
- [36:21]
Marc Stein
Fine, we'll go over. Because I'm being friendly.
- [36:24]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, 18 is too low.
- [36:26]
Marc Stein
18 last year.
- [36:28]
Brian Windhorst
I know they get to play half their games at home.
- [36:30]
Marc Stein
I mean they were intentionally losing last year. Now they just have a team that has no chance to win.
- [36:36]
Brian Windhorst
They're begging you to take the over. I know it's a bit of a trap. All right. Thank you for listening to the Hoop Collective. Thank you to Bontems, McMahon and Jackson. We appreciate you sticking through with us throughout the summer. We always appreciate our hardcore fans and we'll talk to you soon.
- [36:49]
Marc Stein
Adios, amigos.
- [36:55]
Tim Bontemps
Foreign.
- [37:06]
Brian Windhorst
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