
Hoop Collective: Revealing The True NBA Finals Contenders + Tight NBA Awards Races & Things To Watch Down The Stretch
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And clear a path to your best work. Learn more@Microsoft.com M365 copilot foreign. Welcome to the Hoop Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA, which we're doing on Monday night, which we're doing for various reasons, mostly because of my issues. So hopefully this won't go too stale. Joining us from New York City is Tim bontemps.
B
You know, McMahon, when I listen to the podcast Monday morning and I heard Brian open up with a five minute speech about how he was sick and getting sicker, I wasn't really sure if we were going to be doing any pods at all this week or maybe ever again. So I'm glad we're here at least for one more before our guy wastes away.
A
Yeah, well, hello. I told you guys a minute ago, I literally woke up this morning with a full slate of TV booked and I did not know if I could speak. And so I literally spoke out loud. Testing, 1, 2, 3. And this. This voice came out and was deemed good enough to climb through drives from Dallas, Texas, where he's just back from the west coast. His band, McMahon.
C
Howdy, partners. I returned home with a light case of the sniffles, but I'm gonna brave through this. I'm just gonna fight through it, tough it out. Here we go, baby.
A
All right, well, happy All Star break, everybody.
B
McMahon, looks like you got a heck of a tan. For the people watching on the YouTubes and the TV channels, a little bit.
C
A little bit of sun, you know, kind of chilly, though. Definitely hoodie weather out there in SoCal.
A
It's a Texan in SoCal complaining about the weather.
C
I'm not complaining. It was rainy today, but that's okay.
A
So we're in the middle of the all star break, and McMahon and I are celebrating with illness and Bontemps is celebrating with infant child. That's. That's adulthood and it's fine.
C
That's right. That's right.
A
All right, so as we go through this, a few years ago, Darrel Morey crowned something that we call the 5% club. Bontemps, if you want to explain what the 5% club is, if folks don't know.
C
Yeah.
B
I don't remember what year it was, but, Darrell, I Think it was during the Rockets battles with the warriors, where essentially he said, if you have a 5% or better chance of winning the title, you should go all in to try to win the title every year, have that level of percent chance. And so that's it. It's become sort of a. A shorthand around the league, I would say, for teams that you think have a somewhat realistic shot of winning a title in a given year, in different years, there's different numbers of teams that are in that group. I personally think we'll see how many everybody agrees on. But I think this year, in part because the east is maybe the most wide open conference we've ever seen, I think there might be a lot more in it than people might think.
A
2012, the 5% rule, which was the 5% rule of the 5% theory, which he did in a piece with our.
C
Colleague Zach Lowe well before the warriors died.
B
Yeah, I thought it was later. I would have bet the under on that or the over on that issue.
A
That's what my brief Google search provided that it was on in the Grantland column.
C
And by the way, when he says 5% rules, he's like, he wasn't guessing. It wasn't like a feel thing. Like.
A
Right.
C
It's based on simulations. Every team has their own internal analytics department. I do have our basketball Power index, which is our little nerdy number formula. Anybody want to guess how many teams this year would qualify based on the bpi?
A
Let's not get ahead of ourselves because we're going to say our 5%.
B
Well, he's. But that's just by the numbers. It's not ours. Well, I was. I was just looking it up to get the numbers. So you beat me to it, McMahon. I would guess there's eight total.
C
I thought. I thought it'd be somewhere between six and eight. It's half that. There are only four. Oh, interesting. And I will. Interesting. I will not get ahead of myself any further. I will alert you when we discuss those four.
A
All right. I will say that the. One of the rules that I pay attention to, I think there's a run. I don't know if Jackson can find this. I should have prepared you for this, Jackson. The consecutive years where a team has won the championship, who's been in the top, I believe top seven in both offense and defense. I think it's quite a few years in a row. And it doesn't matter where they're ranked in February. In all honesty, it matters where they're ranked at the end.
C
So was Denver a top seven defense?
B
Pretty sure they were not, but I will check.
A
Yeah, I understand why you're asking that.
B
I remember two years.
C
Yeah.
A
Two glorious years.
B
Maybe it's a good shorthand, though. For sure. Whether it's every single year. It's a very good shorthand.
A
Yeah.
C
If you're not going to be top and one.
B
Denver was eight.
C
Top seven. Thirteen.
A
Okay.
C
Yeah. You're not going to be. If you're not going to be a top seven.
A
That was eight. Thirteenth.
B
Yeah.
C
Yeah. Just have the best offense that we've seen in a long time.
A
Right. Okay. So let's just say it's roughly top 10. You need to be. You generally need to be top 10 in both offense and defense. There may be an outlier or two, but that's a rule that I think leads to 5%. That's a big component of it. So. All right, so we're going to take a look here at the teams that we believe have the five that are in the five have a 5% chance. People like my conceit, even though Bontemps has also been doing this for years, but people always ask me about the idea of booking hotel rooms when we, you know, that's sort of like our. The way we. We think a team has a chance to make it. Where do we book hotel rooms in the finals? And I currently only have one set of hotel rooms booked in the finals. Actually, I have two. I have two.
C
I'm also. I'm behind on this as well. I've got three.
A
Bonthense probably has like eight because he.
B
Like, I actually only have one. I'm. I'm not. I haven't gone through and done it.
C
The one for all of us is okc.
A
Yeah, okc. The second one has an asterisk in it because the World cup is in Foxborough this year in June, and Boston hotel rooms are notoriously difficult to book in the spring. So I booked Boston hotel rooms not because I think the Celtics are going to get there, although obviously they certainly could. But it's, you know, it's more about World cup than. Than anything else. So, yes, I reserve the right obviously to add or delete as those come. And by the way, just real quick, because I've seen some people say something about this. Hotel rooms are, you know, we don't book. You don't. Obviously you can book hotel room that's prepaid, but we don't. We don't book hotel rooms that are prepaid. So it's not. I say people, you're not Spending thousands.
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Of dollars on hotel rooms.
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Correct. I spent zero dollars.
B
Anyway, I think the most interesting way, I think, to start this then is how many other teams in the west do we give a real shot? Because I would say I personally would only give one.
C
Okay. I would say two. BPI still has. OKC is 57.9%. They have got a 57.9% chance to win the championship. That feels pretty damn high.
A
I would. Look, I'll bet Oklahoma City would sign up for that right now. Okay.
C
Yeah. I think OKC is still clearly the favorites, but I don't know if I. If I would wager OKC versus the field right now. I mean, obviously, basically 58%. You would. BPI does not have any other 5 percenters in the West. I would have to. I would give a little slice of that OKC percentage to the Nuggets, who are 3.9 here, and a little slice to the spurs, who are 3.6.
A
Spurs are interesting because even though they had such a tremendous record against the Thunder in the regular season, they did not do anything at the deadline. And, you know, there are some teams that are, you know, that don't want to do significant deals with the deadline. They don't believe in it. A year ago, the spurs traded for de' Aaron Fox of the deadline. Now, I think that was about the value that they liked, the value they were getting from the Kings in that deal, and they saw him as a core player going forward. Obviously, they later signed him to a max extension or a max deal. But I wondered, bon temps, like, what do I take away from the fact that the spurs didn't do anything at the deadline, you know, because that sort of violates the Morey rule. Not that, like, you know, you have to do something, but the concept is that's when you go all in. And so I wonder if the spurs internally believe their number is closer to 3.9 than the over 5 that we may want to give it.
B
Well, if. If you're going by that, then the entire league doesn't think they can win the title because the only team in the top 10 that really made an aggressive top 10 in terms of wins at the deadline that made any sort of aggressive move to get better was, ironically, the Thunder who traded. That's not true. Three seconds. That's not true.
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Cleveland.
B
Cleveland wasn't in the. Cleveland wasn't in the top 10 in wins in the NBA.
A
All right, what about Boston?
B
Boston? I mean, Boston traded Anthony Simons or Nick Vucevich, but they largely were. I shouldn't say largely. They got, I would say marginally better. But the biggest reason they did that was to get marginally better while also getting out of a luxury tax, which is what they did.
A
That was the answer. But I mean I, I'm going to.
B
No, it wasn't ancillary at all. Half the teams and they were getting out of the luxury tax and half the teams in the top 10 in wins either got out of the tax. Four of them did. Or Minnesota saved a lot of money by moving off of my continent. So.
A
True. But Minnesota, Minnesota acted like a team with 5%.
C
Are we going to talk about the Spurs? You guys going to just bicker and argue?
B
Well, I, to get back to the Spurs, I don't have. The team I would have in the west with a better than 5% chance is Denver. I don't.
C
We're not going to talk about the spurs because I can answer why they didn't make a trade if you'd like. If you'd like an answer to your question.
A
So they obviously didn't have a deal.
C
They liked because also they want to see what this young group is. They want to give this young group a chance which makes me believe that.
A
They don't believe that they're in the 5%.
C
I would tell you based on the conversations I've had with spurs folks, they definitely do. They do not lack for confidence or swagger.
A
Okay. But the concept of the 5%, the Daryl Morey 5% is you go all in.
C
Well and I think a counterpoint to the concept would be Daryl More. He's never won a championship. So I don't know if you necessarily have to do everything the way Daryl Morey would do it or perhaps you could just run your own franchise the way that you see fit.
B
Well, I mean I understand they also didn't. He also didn't trade every pick every year that he had. Like, I mean it's a little.
C
But here's the deal with the Spurs. The spurs are very similar to where OKC was not last season for the championship run but the year before that. Right from, you know, that OKC team was a playing team that didn't make the playoffs and then zoom up to the number one seed. This spurs teams made a similar leap from not even a playing team to zoom up to right now. The number two seed obviously loaded one with young talent. You've got your franchise superstar, you've got core pieces you think are going to be around him for a long time. That OKC team did the Gordon Hayward deal that basically did nothing but ended up clearing some, some money out. But they weren't aggressive at the deadline and honestly they even helped facilitate move for the, for the Mavericks at the time. But I don't think you can say that OKC team couldn't win the championship. They didn't. But the team that went to the finals out of west, the Mavericks, in a six game series, the score was dead even between those teams. So I think the spurs are, they feel like they've got a chance. They don't feel like they have to do anything to kind of try to fast forward that.
A
Having said that, did the, did the Thunder not make a midseason move?
C
I mean, I don't think anybody thought Gordon Hayward, basically every good finishing piece.
B
Basically every good team in the league this year didn't make a move. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't lean back on that.
A
Again, you're slamming the Cavs like the Cavs.
B
They weren't among the top 10 teams in wins in the league at trade deadline.
C
If you are reading the spurs lack of activity at the trade deadline as an indication that they don't have confidence, I would tell you you are reading it incorrectly. Okay, now the Rockets, that's a different story. The Spurs, I'm just telling you that is a group that believes they've got a real deal chance well right now to stop.
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I know Victor believes it. I know Victor believes it.
C
I'm telling you, people making decisions believe it.
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All right?
B
Yeah, I think they think they have a chance. I just think at the end of the day for me, they're going to have to beat the Nuggets and the Thunder to get to the finals. I don't think they're doing that. A team this young that's ever been in the playoffs has never gone all the way to the finals and perhaps they will buck that trend and buck all of NBA history. I very much think they're going to be in the mix for a long time. The comparison to The Thunder Team 2 years ago I think is apt on many levels. We've talked about it multiple times and it would not shock me at all if they win their first round series and they're in a very competitive second round series against Denver and they lose in six or seven games. Like I think if you simulate this out, I think that's probably the most realistic outcome. And then they add some stuff this summer they get some seasoning for all these young guys. They come back next year and they're right there taking off and they're going to be in the mix for a long time. But Nikole Jokic is obviously has got to the end. Jamal Murray is playing the best basketball of his career. We'll see if Denver can get healthy. It might be a year where they just can't get all their guys on the floor. But to me, if I'm putting anybody else in that group out west, but the way Houston's fallen off, Minnesota's got flaws, et cetera, I Denver's the only team I could put up there with OKC to really be in that Spurs, Spurs.
A
Number seven in offense, number three in defense.
C
Yeah, Spurs. The spurs would be third on my list. The Nuggets are list. And the Nuggets, their trade deadline activity was to duck the luxury tax, which is reasonable given where they were. They're hoping their additions will be getting Aaron Gordon healthy, getting Christian Brown back into form, getting Cam Johnson back into form, getting Peyton Watson now back. I mean, they've really dealt with a ton of injuries, including Joker for a month. And they're still there in the three seed. And you know, I agree with you, Bon Tims in the sense of, hey, we don't have to wonder if the Nuggets can win a championship. We've seen this core win a championship.
A
Denver Nuggets, number one in offense, number 24 in defense.
C
That would be a minor concern, but I don't have it right in front of me. But I think if you look up where they are defensively with Aaron Gordon on the floor, it's a hell of a lot better.
A
All right.
C
Than 24. And listen, if Gordon's not healthy, which unfortunately he's had a real hard time staying healthy for the last two seasons, if Gordon's not healthy, they don't have a chance to win a championship. He's absolutely the glue that, you know, that elevates them to that level.
A
But I agree those number eight in offense, number seven in defense. Minnesota Timberwolves.
C
Yeah. And they went to the they, by the way. Timberwolves. And this is a. They've got a 2.0% chance.
A
I'm not arguing that they're in 5%. I'm just saying that they satisfy.
C
And they did go to the conference finals the last couple years. But Tim Conley's telling us what he believes and that's that they need another superstar. He went after KD twice.
A
Overworked.
C
Yeah. At the deadline hand in the summer, he went after Giannis, you know, despite the fact that the odds are stacked against him with their pick situation. And he did that knowing that it was going to complicate things from a, you know, just player, like a ego management standpoint or a psychology standpoint within the locker room. If he thought they were a championship team, he wouldn't be that aggressive to go after another star. More Hoop Collective podcast after this.
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B
I like things my way, my coffee.
C
My schedule and my treatment.
B
So I talked to my doctor about.
C
Self injecting with the Viv Go Hytrulo.
B
Pre filled Syringe, which contains fgard, Tigamide.
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Alpha and Hyaluronidase qvfc. It's injected under your skin subcutaneously.
C
It means I can inject in my.
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Space on my time.
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It's my treatment, my way.
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Visit vivgardmyway.com that's V-Y-V-G-A-R-T myway.com and talk.
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To your doctor about Vivgard Hyrulo brought.
A
To you by Argenics. All right, what does BPI say? How many teams in the Eastern Conference have 5% or more?
C
3. Would you like me to read them or do you just Want me to alert you when we talk about them?
A
No, go ahead, go ahead.
C
Okay, go ahead. Cavs corner. Cav's Corner, 5.3. Now, I don't know exactly where all goes.
A
Slander could not, he could not get enough in there.
C
The Detroit Pistons, the first place Detroit Pistons 9.3. And those New York Knickerbockers 9.7.
A
All right, New York Knicks are number three in offense, number 11 in defense. Close, but not quite there. Cavaliers, number five in offense, number 12 in defense, 12 and two in their last 14. Detroit Pistons, number 10 in offense, number two in defense.
C
Yeah, so the Pistons are somewhat like the Spurs. They got, they did have a hard fought six round playoff series against the Knicks last year. But to go from never having won a playoff series as a group to a championship is. That's a pretty massive leap.
B
It's basically unheard of. It's the same situation. I mean, the only remotely comparable one is. I'll give Vinnie Goodwill, our colleague, credit for this. In the piece we wrote last week.
C
Vincent Goodwill, Esquire.
B
The 95 magic basically were the same. I think they got swept in the first round the year before and then they went to the finals the next year. It's basically the only comparison.
A
That's like voting, you know, Shaq most improved player as a second year player.
C
But hey, for Victor, I'd say, okay, if you have just a, you know, historically dominant and talented and unique big man who's ascending, then it makes it a possibility. I love Jalen Duran. I wouldn't put him in that category Now. Cade Cunningham's obviously the face of their franchise. I think the Pistons have a very good chance to come out of the East. The other thing is, coming out of the east still puts you at pretty slim odds of winning a championship if one of these three teams that we think's coming out of the west will be there.
A
Well, if you win 12 playoff games, you gotta, you're gonna have a chance.
B
Yeah, to me, that's the, the, the, the reason I said at the beginning that I think there's a lot more teams in this group than people might think off the cuff. It's like last year we got to the NBA Finals and I did not think it was going to be a long series, but the Indiana Pacers were going to lose in four or five games and they were up in game seven on the road when Tyrus Albert got hurt. Right? So like, if you can get to the finals, you have a 5% chance. And to me, the thing that's interesting about this season is I think there's at least five teams in the east that you could look at and say they have a real chance to win the Eastern Conference. Detroit obviously deserves to be there.
A
Hold on. What? Number two in offense, number nine in defense. Celtics, Bucks and Celtics.
B
Yeah, so I was going to say without Tatum. Right.
A
So the three teams that they satisfy, the. They satisfy that.
B
Right. The three teams that Tim mentioned all obviously deserve to be seen as having a real chance to win. Detroit, Cleveland, and New York. I think at this point you have to say that the Celtics are in that category also. And there's another obvious team that I'm blanking on at the top of the east as well.
C
You talking about Philly?
B
Well, Philly, I. Philly, I think is on the outside of that, but like is, I think talented enough where if they could say healthy, which they're not, you know, the chances of that are slim. Oh, Toronto is the other team in the top six. I don't. I don't think I could get there with Toronto.
C
I can't.
B
I was.
C
You could talk to Philly more than Toronto. Just because you could talk.
B
I think it's four with an outside shot at five. But even four teams.
A
Number 16 in offense and Scotty Barnes led defense. Number six.
B
Yeah.
C
Where's Philly?
A
Philly number 13 in offense and number 15 in defense.
C
By the way, BPI gives Toronto a 0.1% chance and Philly a 0.2% chance.
B
Yeah, I mean, I don't, I don't like Toronto's offense enough. Obviously the rating backs that up. Like the Raptors have trouble shooting. I think what's. When they can. When teams can really key in on them in the playoffs, I think it's going to be hard for them to get enough offense to advance more than around. But look, if Philly is healthy at the end, like we've talked about, they have the high end talent to where they could make some noise in the playoffs. But again, having all that line up and everybody stay healthy and get through three rounds of the playoffs, you can't be predicting that to happen right now. But those other four teams, all of them have a real credible argument to get through. And that's like you said, mcban, with Jason Tatum sitting out there as an unknown quantity. And by the way, he has now been practicing and you know, I don't think any. Nobody in Boston's obviously predicting he's definitely coming back. But I think barring a setback, it's safe to think that's the realistic outcome as he comes back and plays at some point this season and if he could just give them something on top of what they already have, like they might be good enough to get to the finals right now. And that's with him like you said, not even part of the equation at all. If he just comes back and is a a new rotation piece for them over the final two months of the season in the playoffs, that would be a huge addition for the Celtics over.
A
The last 15 games. Number one offense. Number nine defense.
C
How much do we think Cleveland Cavaliers. Oh, I'm sorry, you're moving on to.
B
Of course he's going to Cav's corner.
C
Zip.
A
He's been.
C
He's.
B
He's been. He's been all fired. A buckhouse corner.
C
My answer on Vuch move the needle is going to be not much anyways but oh yes, let's.
B
I don't think is going to start so it's not really going to matter any. Like he'll be an okay bench player for them but he'll basically replace Anthony Simons off the bench.
C
We. We've turned the corner right in the Cavs corner. The sizzling Cavs. And listen, they've got James Harden which guarantees a deep, deep, successful playoff run.
B
Deep second round series.
A
I will say that something that happened that was interesting last week, it didn't get a lot of attention because there was a lot of stuff going on in the league. But Lawrence Frank gave an update on Darius Garland and so Garland had been out with a right toe sprain. Uh, you were there that night Bon Temps, when he sprayed his toe in Philly.
B
In Philly, yep.
A
And Lawrence Frank said that his right toe is healed but he is out indefinitely with the left toe, which is what he had surgery on and re injured earlier this year I think in November in Miami. And so it sort of sheds a little bit of light on why the Cavs put a second round pick in that deal. Yeah, because Darius Garland isn't, you know, he's not is. You know, he's still battling that left foot and you know it also illustrates why the Cavs felt like, you know, for trying to maximize this season why they moved off of Garland because I don't just don't think they knew where his health was going to be.
B
Yeah, we've talked about they've got to win. The Cavs have to win this season. They've got to convince Donovan Mitchell to want to be there long term. James Harden obviously is not going to be as good as Darius Garland six years from now. But you can't worry about six years from now. You got to worry about the next six months. And he's definitely an upgrade right now. No disrespect to the 12 and 2 record over the last 14 games, but there's been a lot of, I would say subpar opponents in that stretch. For the Cavs though, they have conference.
A
You'Re going to have a lot of subpar.
C
Well, there's not the playoffs.
B
There's a lot of subpar opponents out west too, and they've played some of them lately. But coming up over the next couple of weeks, they play on a Sunday afternoon on ABC on the 22nd against OKC. Two days later they're at home against the Knicks. Later that week they played the Pistons on the road. They then have a set where they played the Pistons, the Cat, the Celtics and Sixers all in one week at home coming up. So we're going to get some real tests over the next couple of weeks to see just where you know, this James Harden, Donovan Mitchell led Cavs team is. But when they were cooking last year it was with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell giving them 48 minutes of high level offense and they had this unbelievable offense all the way through. And James Harden is a really good distributor and still can generate a lot of offense and he has immediately come in and given them right back to that 48 minutes of high level orchestration with the ball. And you know, it, it looks a lot more like last year right away. And by the way, James Harden is not Gary Payton by any means, but he is a bigger, sturdier, better defender than Darius Garland, which will help the Cavs at that end too.
C
And he'll rebound, you know.
B
True he will.
C
The thing I've been a little bit impressed and a little bit surprised with is that their, their clutch chemistry has been so immediate and seemed like so easy. And you know, that's not saying anything about either a guy, Donovan Mitchell or James Harden. But typically when you acquire star mid season, it takes a little bit of time to kind of get a feel. Like for example when the Mavericks got Kyrie. Obviously Kyrie and Luka ended up clicking. They went to a finals together. But that first season, every time they got in a clutch situation it was like overly deferring.
A
You could see them like actually looking at each other and like trying to figure it out in the moment.
C
I remember there was the one, there was the one play against the Timberwolves where they passed the ball back and forth to each other three or four times until it was a turnover in the final seconds with Donovan and James, you know, and again we're talking about basically what is it? A two game sample size. But they've executed down the stretch. It wasn't a my turn, your turn type of thing. And I do think the pecking order like James is still going to have to score for them. He's still going to have to make some big shots. But there is a very, very clear and defined pecking order. It is Donovan Mitchell's franchise and James is coming in there to be his number, you know, the number two guy and the table setter.
A
Bonus team.
C
What's that?
A
Bonus team.
C
Bonus team.
A
A team that we are talking about as a bonus in the last 15 games. Number two offense, number six defense. Charlotte Eastern Conference.
C
We're not putting Charlotte in 5%.
A
Buzz City Killers.
C
What we need Charlotte's do is, is to make the playoffs first. And I, I do think Charlotte, I just pointed out they are. No question the Hornets have found something. They're trending in the right direction. I do believe they can be a pesky first round foe for somebody and then I think there will be reason to be excited about the Hornets going into the summer.
A
So we're into the phase of the season where we start to really pay attention to the award races. The MVP is going to heat up here and that's going to be a fascinating race which we'll talk about plenty of. But I thought we would at this point here at the All Star break, take a look at some of the other award races and let's start off with one that's going to be a war of attrition, which I think is defensive player of the year. So right now Victor Wembanyama is eligible and if he stays eligible, I think he's got a great chance to win. But he's got, he's got, you know, he's got three games left.
B
I think two.
A
Well, what, how does it do you. Don't you get a bonus for playing in the NBA Cup?
B
No, you're right, you're right. He's. He's got, he's got 41. I thought the, I thought he'd missed more games. He missed 14 games, but he gets, he's missed 14 regular season games, but he gets an extra game because they made the cup final.
A
Right?
B
So he can miss, he can miss four.
A
I think he's the favorite.
B
No. Yeah. Four.
A
Four.
C
Yeah. Think here's the, the first thing. Here's, here's my advice to all voters. Defense player of the year. The first thing you do is determine did Wimby hit 65 games? Yes, he's your winner. No, he's not on your ballot. Like he's. He's the most dominant defensive force in the league by a wide margin.
A
Man, wait till you see Dylan again. Oh man, he is not going to be happy with that.
C
Dylan the villain. Listen, well, you won't.
A
You won't see Dylan the villain in the first game after the break, I'll tell you that.
C
Yeah, his 19th.
A
He finally got suspended after his 19th technical.
C
16 of them counted.
A
He got three rescinded. They tried, they tried to keep him from getting.
C
Listen, if I'm worried about seeing somebody with my opinion that Wimby is the clear cut defense player of the year as long as he's eligible. If I'm worried about seeing someone, it's. Guys won four of them. Monsieur Gobert.
A
Rudy Gobert, who you once got a pedicure with.
C
This is a fact. At that point I believe he had not yet won a single one, but he's won four.
A
Probably use another pedicure by now.
C
Have you had one since? Oh, me, I've had no. Well, here's thing I have, my daughters have figured out like if they say hey dad, you want to go get a pedicure? I'll always say yes because I get to hang out with them and then I always pay for them. So I've had a few anyways when or Rudy is third according to our guy Jackson at 1400. I don't have the full case in front of me, but there is a pretty strong analytics case and of course it always. You can always start with on off. They're at 107.9. When he's on the floor, which would be I believe second in the league. And then when he's off the floor that goes all the way up to a lot more than that.01.16.2 which would be pretty far down most. This is the difference between second and.
B
A lot worse than second, I think, I think it's. I think this is a pretty simple race. Like you said, if Victor can avoid injury and stay eligible, he's going to win the award.
C
Victor is second and twice a difference, by the way.
B
Yeah. If Victor is not eligible for the award, I think it comes down to two people. I think it comes down to Rudy, you just laid out his case and Chad Holgren. It will be one of those two. I think Chat would win Thunder are The best defense in the league Chat is an excellent defender. I think you can attempt to make an argument that he's in the conversation with Victoria. I don't think he's going to beat Victor, but he's had an excellent defensive season and is an excellent defensive player. And I think if Victor doesn't is not eligible for the award again, assuming he is healthy and eligible for it, I think it'll be him or Chet.
C
Which will just add to Wimy's motivation to make sure he plays 65 games.
A
By the way, I think Chet's only missed seven games, so Chet's got more.
B
Chet should be all right, but let's.
C
Hope he stays healthy. The. The other factor here, if we're being real honest, Rudy has won four. That ties him for the most all time. The bar for Rudy to get a fifth defense player of the year is pretty high. Especially like the guy, for whatever reason you want to speculate or pick, the guy gets heavily criticized not just by media, but really by a lot of players.
A
He heavily criticizes his own teammates.
C
This is true too.
A
So.
C
So anyways, I just think the bar for Rudy to get a fifth is going to be extraordinary.
A
Chad.
B
And Chad is the best defensive player on the best defensive team. Right. And so like that's a pretty easy argument to make.
C
So he, you know, I think that you could say I think most impactful defensive player just because bigs are more impactful than perimeter defenders.
B
Sure. If you want to say Crusoe, just.
C
Be their best pound for pound defender at this point.
B
And I thought you were going to say Crusoe. They've got Casen Wallace. They've got Lou out.
C
All right. Yeah, good point, Wendy.
A
Yeah.
C
But Casey Wallace is leading the league in steals.
A
I mean, he's Kawhi per game leads the league in steals.
C
Well, Case Walls plays more games.
B
Yeah, I'm not sure Kawhi's eligible yet.
A
Well, all right, all right. Coach of the year now J.B. bickerstaff is the favorite, I believe deserved for sure. And you know, if they finish the number one seed, which I think they've got a six game lead, is going.
B
To be very compelling. Yeah, I mean, this is a two horse race. It's him and Joe Missoula.
A
That's what I would say.
C
Yeah.
A
You know, those are the two I would pick.
C
I'll tell you what though, man.
A
I. JB is -165 on DraftKings according to Jackson.
C
I do think we should at least mention two guys from the west and they're both kind of sort of, I think technically rookie head coaches. But Mitch Johnson has to get some credit for what I agree. Are doing.
A
Absolutely.
C
You know, for them.
B
He's done a phenomenal job.
C
I assume, you know, what three guys then David Adelman's the other one as much.
B
Oh, sure.
C
We all thought the Nuggets were going to maybe be scuffing around and close to playing territory when Joker was going to be out for a month and all the other injuries that they've had. So I do think we should at least give honorable mentions. And Jordan Knott's a good call.
A
He loves giving honorable mentions. Can I give one more honorable mention?
B
There's always a lot of names for coach of the year, but yeah, how.
A
About the Buzz City Killers Gaffer.
C
Hey, if they gaffer, they keep on coaching.
A
English soccer.
C
Charles.
B
Charles Lee has done a great job obviously getting those guys turned.
A
I just, I mean, I just wanted.
C
To say, especially if they end up over.500 after the start they had. But yeah, I think it's Bickerstaff and Missoula or 1, 2. It's probably going to come down to those guys and Jordan.
B
And Jordan probably would be the other guy on the ballot. I mean, the fact that Charlotte or Charlotte, the fact that Phoenix is a game and a half out of the top six in the west is pretty crazy. And you know, he's done a really, really great job. But you look at those, the top two teams in the east being where they are, Detroit obviously making the giant leap up and then Boston on their way to over 50 wins without Jason Tatum. And after trading away all these guys and like, you know, people thought they might be able to make the playoffs. Nobody thought they'd be top seven in offensive defense and or top 10 in offensive defense and second in the east at this point in the season.
C
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B
My day kicks off with a refreshing Celsius energy drink. Then straight to the gym.
C
Pre K pickup back home to meal prep.
A
Time for my fire station shift.
B
One more Celsius. Gotta keep the lights on when the three alarm hits. I'm ready.
C
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Go grab a cold refreshing Celsius at your local retailer or locate now@celsius.com.
C
Your little one grew three inches overnight.
B
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C
Also expensive. Sell their pint sized pieces on Depop and list them in minutes with no selling fees because somewhere a dad refuses.
A
To pay full price for the clothes his kids will outgrow tomorrow. And he's ready to buy your son's.
B
Entire wardrobe right now. Consider your future growth.
C
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B
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C
Payment processing fees and boosting fees still apply. See website for details.
A
Speaking of the buzz city Killers, how about the Ricky?
C
I do love that nickname.
A
I know I'm being really old. I'm having fun with it. Rookie of the year.
C
I mean it's a two horse race and the horse around my parts has got a significant edge.
A
He was but he is before this injury. He has been killing it on offense. He's killed it on defense from day one. But my God has he been flexing his offensive muscle.
C
Well and, and he's averaging you know, 20 and change at this point. Again I just go back to this stat when guys are rookies and they're averaging 20 plus points, six plus rebounds, four plus assists per game. Cooper flags on pace to be the fourth one of those dudes since the ABA NBA merger. The fourth.
B
Yeah.
C
And it's. Yeah, go ahead. It's Larry, it's Michael Jordan and oh my goodness, I can't believe I'm blanking on the other one. But it's a, it's a one namer for sure. Oh, I can't blank on that.
B
Well, while you're looking up your name.
C
This is what happens when I get fresh off an airplane.
B
I, I would vote for Cooper Flag and I, I think Cooper Flag should win rookie of the year. However, I think con canople, his college roommate playing for Charlotte might win the award. And especially if Charlotte continues to play like this and makes the playoffs. You you might think he has a significant edge, but I don't think he's gonna have significant edge in the voting because he's having probably the best shooting season of any rookie ever, shooting 42% from three on eight attempts a game, which is crazy. And he's scoring almost 19 points a game on a team that might make the playoffs.
C
Well, I'll say, like Knuckle isn't just a shooter or scorer. Like he rebounds. He, he's a much better playmaker than you would think.
B
He's really good. He's a really, really good player.
C
And defensively, you know, he's, I got.
A
Challenges, but he's a hybrid of Clay and Steph. He's a little smaller than Clay, a little bigger than Steph. Shoots. I would say he's, I would say, I'd say he's definitely stuff.
B
What I would say, by the way.
C
The odds are minus 650 for flag, plus 360 for con. I think the, I think the voting's going to end up pretty close to that. But like Con Knipple would be the rookie of the year in the majority of years. I think you can certainly say that.
A
So, you know, I think I would.
B
Vote for Cooper, but I wonder if Charlotte keeps going like this, I could see that race getting a lot tighter.
A
So I've compared, not just me, but many people have. But I've compared LeBron to Cooper, Cooper to LeBron a lot. Yeah, when LeBron was a rookie, okay, he was. They both shot, are shooting the ball. Cooper's not shooting threes well and LeBron didn't shoot threes well. But when LeBron was a rookie, because the thing was, you know, people thought the Cooper's offensive game may not be as elite. When LeBron was a rookie, he shot 44% on twos. Cooper Flag is shooting 53% on twos.
C
And the three point shot has gone from awful to, you know, it's for the season, 30.2, but it's, it's. That's up significantly.
A
Let's take a look and see that.
C
By the way, you'll crack up. Remember I said four rookies since the merger. Larry Michael Jordan, Cooper, Flag, and I forgot one in between. Who could it have been? Who could it have been? Luka Doncic, the only other teenager. Teenager.
A
If only you did some homework on Luka.
C
Yeah, 20 points, six rebounds and four assists per game. Pretty good player. And where's he now? We didn't bring him up in the 5% club conversation.
A
I figured let's take a look at one thing we're looking at. It's not really the second half. There's like 28 games left for most teams, like the last third, but out of the break. Bon temps. What's one thing you're looking forward to?
B
I am just really interested to see how this Eastern Conference race shakes out across the board. The Cavs have an incredibly easy schedule down the stretch. I don't think it's.
A
Out of the 13 games against quote, unquote tankers, that's the most in the league.
B
I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. They get up to maybe first, but.
A
Really, I don't think that's happening. But.
B
Well, they could rack up an absolute ton of wins. As much as my point late, like, they could win. Like, look, if. If you told me they went 21 and six in these final 27 games, I wouldn't be stunned. That would get them up to 55 wins. That would at least give him a chance of getting up to first. So, you know, I think there's a very good chance they get to second at least, which would be very significant going forward. Will Jayson Tatum come back? What will he look like? Like that whole situation in Boston.
A
He gets one thing. He's not gone to two.
B
Well, no, but it's the. It's the whole Eastern Conference race.
A
Wow. It's.
B
I mean, all these teams are, you know, they're all pretty evenly bunched together, and there's just a lot of different things to watch across the conference. And, you know, it. It's going to be a very fun. And it's. I mean, you got second to six is separated by five games, and there's gonna be a lot of jockeying, and it's gonna be really interesting to see.
A
How a shakes out McMahon.
C
The most fascinating team in the league to me, features the most fascinating player in the league, and that's the San Antonio spurs with Victor Wimanyama. And that's no disrespect to the Thunder, but we've seen the Thunder win a championship. We know they can. We've seen Nicole Jokic and the Nuggets win a championship. We know they can. I firmly believe that these spurs can. I'm not. I don't necessarily know that it's this year. I would wager against it, but I love the way that Wimby goes about his business. I love how much swagger he plays with and just how much he wants all the smoke. And I'm excited to See how things unfold for the rest of the season and certainly once the playoffs start for the Spurs.
A
All right, I could make a joke about Charlotte here, but I won't. I think two things, one off court, one on court, off court. Are we going to get some sort of ruling or decision or something in the Clippers aspiration case that's been quiet and has been going on for months on end now. And so I think that could end.
B
Up past the All Star Game.
A
Yeah, I think that could be a major storyline in the second half. Depending on what happens. There will certainly be a lot of reaction. Whether it's a penalty or whether it's non penalty or a very light penalty, there will certainly be a lot of reaction on the court. I mentioned earlier that a team that is sort of secretly hiding as a. As an elite team, but not always playing as an elite team is Minnesota. You saw what Ant did in the All Star Game. The guy is, you know, incredible. Minnesota has had some baffling performances this year. They have looked tremendous at times, they have looked ridiculous at times. And they were a team that last year right about this time were in about the same spot and then they had. They hit the turbo down the stretch of the season, ended up in the conference finals. So of course you could mention all the teams we already did, but Minnesota is a team, you know, that.
B
Did we see the hot mic controversy at the All Star Game with Ant and Jalen Johnson, by the way, Also.
A
Over the weekend there was a number of controversies at the All Star Game that. But no, I did not.
B
I'm just saying the fact that, you know, who knows what was real about it or not. But there was talk that Ant and Jalen were caught on the court with Ant saying I can't wait to go home. Which, you know, he's from Atlanta, obviously. And while I'll just set that to the side, the upcoming months.
A
Could he have met on Sunday night?
B
He could have. But the upcoming months in Minnesota I think are going to be interesting on a lot of levels. After they, they did cut money to, you know, did cut a bunch of money. Now we'll see if they add some guy in the buyout market, you know. Okay, then perhaps we'll look their. Their plans will look different, but for now it looks like they just saved a lot of money at the All Star at the trade deadline.
A
They did trade for IO. I mean, they did attempt to upgrade.
B
But they could have got. They could have got two players and you know, instead they got one. So, you know, let's see what the rest of their season looks like from a win loss perspective. But certainly Ant is never boring and Sunday night was proof of that.
C
And the simple fact of the matter is our our pals Alex Rodriguez and Mark Laurie, they were part of our part of our live show in Las Vegas. Hate to call them out for buying an NBA franchise on layaway, but they did.
A
They got a great deal, man.
C
They got the and they got it to the finish line. But here's the, here's the thing. Can they truly afford to fund an NBA contender? You know, and that's that goes, that's an issue that goes far beyond just the payroll. The payroll's the primary. That's where the focus is going to be. And if the answer is no, then what are the ramifications of that?
B
And one one thing sort of related to that off the court wise to watch going forward is I know Adam Silver talked about it a little bit over the weekend with regards to expansion. I don't know when we're going to find out about expansion, but I feel very confident that we're going to get expansion news in the affirmative this year.
C
And that at some point wonder where that could end up.
B
Well, yes, that will end up in two more Western Conference cities, but gee.
A
Whiz is filing a lawsuit.
C
That's right. Gwiz, the Wizards master, by the way.
B
But that's going to be happening. I feel pretty confident about too.
C
And if expansion happens, you know, there's going to be a lot of lobbying to be one of the teams that head east.
B
That's right.
C
Minnesota Timberwolves will be will be one of the primary teams that allow what it's it's Minnesota, Memphis.
B
Minnesota, Memphis and New Orleans are the same.
A
Maybe that's what Ant meant to go home to the east where he's from.
B
Could be. Could be.
C
Well, apparently said, you know, y' all got so many wings, which, you know, they could mean the position of the basketball floor or there are places in Atlanta that are well known for their quality chicken wings.
A
Right.
C
That Ant might enjoy.
A
We'll check on that. I'm sure that our fine beat writers in Minnesota will follow up on that. Friday is one of our holidays. McMahon.
C
Oh great.
A
It's the second pond temps poll is scheduled to come out on Friday.
C
Ah, the number 2Bs poll.
A
This one is going to be potentially quite interesting to see what the MVP voters are thinking with a bunch of guys dealing with injuries. A bunch of guys ineligible like Jokic is still eligible. Jokic is the guy that I voted for last time, but he's been injured, missed a bunch of games and he.
C
Came back with time to spare for a reason.
A
I know, but he hasn't quite been the same since he came back. He's been good, very good, but he's, you know, he's definitely still not himself. And so I haven't, you know, Bon Temps asked me for my vote today. I haven't given it to him yet, but.
C
And Shay's no longer on a 70 win pace. Nor is 70 wins even a possibility for the Thunder any longer.
A
Bon Temps. This is. This is going to be an interesting one.
B
This is going to be interesting. I mean, you've got Jokic on the verge of not being eligible. You already have Giannis not eligible. You have Victor Yama on the verge of not being eligible. You have Luka Doncic getting close to not being eligible. By the way, you mentioned Shay. We really have no idea how long Shay is going to be out with this current injury that he's got. He could be back this week, he could be back in weeks. Like, we really don't know. They just, we were just told, I believe, the update. McMahon was. Will be told after the All Star break what his status is. Right.
C
So, yeah, the, the updates that we'll get an update. Yeah, he'll be reevaluated. They didn't say we get an update.
B
Right. So, you know, I, I mean, it's. It is. It is as up in the air as a race as we've had because of large part. In large part because of.
A
By the way, when you've got a $300 million MVP, he's evaluated every day, just for the record, but.
B
All right, we'll see what happens on Friday.
A
All right, I'm looking forward to that, as always. All right, thank you to Jackson and the rest of our producers. Thank you to McMahon and Bontemps for doing this on Monday night. Hopefully we don't have to emergency pot on Tuesday. And thank you for watching and listening to HOOPP Collective. Talk to you later this week.
C
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Episode: Revealing The True NBA Finals Contenders + Tight NBA Awards Races & Things To Watch Down The Stretch
Date: February 18, 2026
Host: Brian Windhorst (A)
Panel: Tim Bontemps (B), Tim MacMahon (C)
Podcast Theme:
A nuanced deep dive into the true contenders for the 2026 NBA title, a state-of-the-league analysis at the All-Star break, and a lively breakdown of NBA awards races and storylines as the season heads down the stretch.
The crew evaluates which NBA teams are genuine championship contenders using the “5% club” concept (teams with a true 5%+ chance to win the title), analyzes trade deadline activity (or lack thereof), digs into tight NBA awards races, and highlights key storylines to follow for the remainder of the season.
Origin of the 5% Club
How Many Teams Meet the 5% Threshold?
Oklahoma City Thunder
Denver Nuggets
San Antonio Spurs
Minnesota Timberwolves
BPI 5%+ Teams: Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks
Boston Celtics
Philly & Toronto
| Segment | Timestamp | |--------------------------------|-------------| | 5% Club Explanation | 02:19–03:41 | | West Contenders (OKC, Denver, Spurs, Wolves) | 07:37–17:17 | | East Contenders | 19:22–25:06 | | Awards Races (DPOY) | 31:14–36:08 | | Coach of Year Discussion | 36:08–39:28 | | Rookie of the Year | 40:25–44:13 | | Key Storylines to Watch | 44:13–51:27 | | MVP Race Tease (upcoming Bontemps poll) | 51:27–53:19 |
The 2026 NBA landscape features wide-open contention, especially in the East, with the West anchored by OKC and Denver but a bolder, younger Spurs squad feeling their window is now. Award races will come down to late-season health and eligibility, with Wembanyama, Bickerstaff, and Flagg as front-runners. The crew’s blend of numbers, insider nuance, and on-court context provides essential perspective for fans looking to understand who’s truly in the hunt and why the stretch run will be thrilling across both conferences.