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Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective
What Are The Goals For Every NBA Team This Season?
01:18:08
Hoop Collective: What Are The Goals For Every NBA Team This Season?
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- [00:00]
Ryan Reynolds
Hey, it's Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. Now I was looking for fun ways to tell you that Mint's offer of unlimited Premium Wireless for $15 a month is back. So I thought it would be fun.
- [00:11]
Tim Bontemps
If we made $15 bills, but it.
- [00:14]
Ryan Reynolds
Turns out that's very illegal. So there goes my big idea for the commercial. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment.
- [00:22]
Brian Windhorst
Of $45 for a three month plan equivalent to $15 per month. Required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of networks busy taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com Foreign welcome to the Hoop Collective podcast. We talk about the NBA which we're doing on Wednesday afternoon. Altering our schedule up a little bit this week because got some stuff going on. Joining me from San Jose, California, Tim Bontemps.
- [00:50]
Ryan Reynolds
Hello everybody.
- [00:51]
Brian Windhorst
And joining me from Dallas, Texas, home on the range is Ben McMahon.
- [00:56]
Tim Bontemps
Howdy partners.
- [00:57]
Brian Windhorst
Nobody loves tears more than Tim Bontemps and he loves to roll out tears in the summer. And I'm having fun with him. But actually he has a very good story with Kevin Pelton that published today. This was a Wednesday.
- [01:12]
Ryan Reynolds
Notice that actually McMahon.
- [01:14]
Tim Bontemps
Huh.
- [01:14]
Ryan Reynolds
So did you notice that actually threw in there? Yeah, Bob.
- [01:17]
Tim Bontemps
I would replace it surprisingly. Also add that Kevin Pelton clearly carried you on this one. But go on, Wendy.
- [01:26]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah. Anyway, I actually like this concept and I think it's a good thing to look at at this point in the calendar, the NBA all in tiers. In other words, how all in are some of these teams. And considering that we have seen multiple teams cut guys with $100 million on their salaries, multiple teams trade complete control of their drafts for the foreseeable future away some.
- [01:58]
Ryan Reynolds
Just so people are clear on what exactly the great the parameters of the story were. It's not necessarily all. It's, it's the, the idea was to break teams into groupings of what, what version of all in they are. And like what are you all in on? That's right. That, that's the, that is the, that's the conceit of the story. What are you all in on? There's a different, you know, not every team, not every team goes into the season thinking they're going to win the title. So what is basically the objective?
- [02:24]
Brian Windhorst
It's not hard to figure out what the Utah Jazz are all in on. For example, it's not on winning the west. It's on. Well, it's on winning something else. Okay. So I like this story as much as it is Bon Temps. I don't tease Pelton. I have too much respect for him.
- [02:44]
Tim Bontemps
But he's just not as fun to push around either.
- [02:48]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, he's, you know, you pro. Well, I'm not even gonna go.
- [02:52]
Tim Bontemps
He's a robot. Pontemps is really irritable. You can get. Get under his skin pretty easy.
- [02:56]
Brian Windhorst
Well, the thing is, like, you know, Bon Temps is like Eric's five. You can't stuff him into a locker. Pelton, you know, I can't. Metaphorically. Listen, Bon Temps has won fights. I've seen it.
- [03:10]
Tim Bontemps
There's a YouTube out there.
- [03:13]
Ryan Reynolds
That is true.
- [03:14]
Brian Windhorst
All right, let's start with the first tier, which is all in on winning a championship before their window closes. Tim, take it away.
- [03:23]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, we had three teams in this tier, Denver, Milwaukee and Minnesota.
- [03:28]
Tim Bontemps
And interestingly, two of those is like, hey, you've got perennial MVP candidates that are midway through their prime, obviously. Joker, Giannis. Whereas, as you point out in here, the Bucks, I guess Ant, is ascending towards MVP candidate status. Hasn't quite gotten there yet, but, you know, an ascending superstar who's not even hit his prime yet. So it's, it's, it's interesting that the Timberwolves are in that same tier, despite the fact that the face of their franchise is at a very different stage of his career.
- [04:06]
Ryan Reynolds
Some of these teams are a little hard to fit into a clean grouping together. Brian does not like too many tiers. Didn't really want to get into trying to have 30 different tiers.
- [04:19]
Brian Windhorst
He would if he could, though.
- [04:21]
Ryan Reynolds
For example, I would say, you know, while I understand what Milwaukee did this summer, I don't think many people would truly say the Bucks are a championship contending team with their. With their current roster. But again, if you're trying to look at it through the prism of, you know, trying to get this done before the window closes. Obviously, the Bucks have been on a timer for a while now, which is why they made what I think we'd all agree was a fairly desperate maneuver to wave and stretch Damian Lillard and a record amount of money to go sign Miles Turner as a free agent. As it relates to Minnesota, the reason why we ended up having him in this tier and why I pushed to have him in it is this team is still very reliant on Rudy Gobert and to a lesser extent, Mike Conley. And those guys are in their mid to late 30s, and there's not clear replacements for them, despite the fact that they drafted Rob Dillingham a year ago. I'm not convinced Rob Dillingham is the long term answer to replace Mike Conley. And despite the fact they paid NAS Reed $125 million this summer, I'm not convinced Nas Reed is a long term replacement for Rudy at center either.
- [05:27]
Tim Bontemps
Well, I'm not convinced of that. I think that if there's a long term replacement at center on the roster, then it's the guy they just drafted, the fellow Frenchman, Johan Beringer. But he's, you know, he's a springy seven foot ball of clay at this point.
- [05:44]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, I mean he, he certainly showed a lot of potential. I mean he had the seven block game at summer league against the Pelicans, but you know, I think we're a little ways away from being able to reliably say he's got a chance to be that kind of player going forward.
- [05:57]
Tim Bontemps
The window is very defined for Denver. It's as long as Joker is one of the best players in the world, assuming that his future is in Denver, which I think is still a pretty solid bet. The window is very defined for the Bucks. That's as long as Giannis is one of the best players in the world and on their roster, which is much murkier. The window's not so well defined for the Wolves just because Ant has so much Runway in front of them. But you know, can they kind of, to your point here, how much more time do they have left with this supporting cast? And then can they kind of recreate or reconstruct a supporting cast while Ant is, you know, still ascending?
- [06:44]
Brian Windhorst
Can I pull off onto a Bucks conversation here real quick?
- [06:48]
Tim Bontemps
Yes.
- [06:49]
Brian Windhorst
Miles Turner's contract, four years. 104 million, was it 100?
- [06:57]
Ryan Reynolds
Actually, I think the neck.
- [07:00]
Tim Bontemps
Let me, let me get to the Bobby Marksmobile. I think the final numbers actually came in a little bit even higher than was originally.
- [07:08]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, I think it might be 112. Let me do some quick math while you're talking, Brian.
- [07:12]
Brian Windhorst
Okay. So I'd like to apply our, our strategy. Can that contract be traded?
- [07:20]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, I believe so.
- [07:22]
Brian Windhorst
Okay.
- [07:22]
Tim Bontemps
McMahon, again, every contract can be traded. Can. Can they flip that for value? I think that's probably going to be a little bit more difficult.
- [07:33]
Ryan Reynolds
108.8 million over four years. I would say Miles Turner, as we saw last year in the playoffs, although he struggled in the finals, has a skill set as a three point shooting big who can protect the rim. That is desired around the league. And I think they could if they decide to like at some, let's say Giannis a year or two from now. Says, I've had my fun in Milwaukee. I'm ready to go. As long as Miles Turner is healthy, I think they could flip that deal and get some value back for it. For a team that's trying to win right now and want somebody with that skill set. Like, for example, he'd be a nice fit on the Lakers right now. He'd be a nice fit on the warriors right now. He would be a nice fit on. I mean, he could be. I mean, again, we're just talking wolves. I mean, sure, Phoenix, Phoenix is having to trade, but like long term, he could be a potential long term answer to replace Rudiger Gobert in Minnesota if they're trying to do something with that in a year or two. Right. Like he has a skill set that should age decently. And that's not a, it's an, it's an in market or it's a within the realms of the market contract.
- [08:47]
Brian Windhorst
Here's why I'm asking about that right now. Von Temps, you and I were live on national television when we found out about Dame Miller's Wave and Stretch to sign Miles Turner. Facts and I in the moment, literally in the moment, I said, it's like mortgaging your mortgage to buy a sports car. I still don't like it. But as I've talked to people across the league and thought more about it, while I don't necessarily think it's the primary reason, I think that maneuver was an elaborate hedge on what Giannis wants to do. And here's why I'm saying that with a month of reflection and talking to people in the league. Yes, ideally what you want is Giannis to return, be fully bought in, in the season, have a guy who fits alongside him that can, can stretch the floor and protect the rim. That's a lot of value. And however you structure your team, where you have, whether you have Giannis playing point forward or point center or whatever, and it's you sending a message to Giannis that we scrape the bottom of the barrel. You know, John Horst, he gave an interview to the Athletic Eric Name and I think what he said was, have we done enough to keep Giannis? I don't know. Have we done everything that we possibly could do? Yes, we did. More than anyone else could ever have done that. Which to me was an indication that that number one, he didn't necessarily have Giannis sitting next to them when they did it. Even if Giannis endorsed the move, it wasn't like something that they were doing alongside him. It certainly wasn't Like Luca calling Marcus Smart up multiple times.
- [10:33]
Tim Bontemps
Right.
- [10:34]
Brian Windhorst
2. John Horst wants it on the record that they did everything they possibly could do. I mean, that's already kind of inherent. So why, why does he want them to know that? Well, I think because the Bucks can try to do their best here with Miles Turner and having waived Dame Lillard. But the other thing that is important here is that you can't wave and stretch somebody after. What's the date? Bon Thames? August 31st.
- [10:59]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah. The end of August.
- [11:00]
Brian Windhorst
So if at the, at some point in the next year, you trade Giannis and you start a rebuild, you can't really start a rebuild with Dame Lillard on your roster.
- [11:11]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah.
- [11:11]
Brian Windhorst
Because he has no trade value at the torn Achilles tendon, owed a hundred million dollars, and you can't wave and stretch him in January. So you, you wave and stretch him now, and then you use that money to acquire an asset that you can either play or you can if you have to trade. And you do that so that if you have to go a rebuild route, it's the off ramp is, exists in a way that wouldn't exist otherwise. And you send the message that we did everything we possibly could so that if. So that the ball is in Giannis's court.
- [11:52]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, I wouldn't say you, you can't start a rebuild with Dame on the roster. I mean, you would just go about it in a different way. He would then be a giant expiring contract you could then use to, you know, maneuver things around for people.
- [12:07]
Brian Windhorst
Then you're in the tax. Remember, they get out of the tax with this maneuver, too.
- [12:10]
Ryan Reynolds
I, I, yeah, I, I understand that, though I think they might have been. They were probably going to duck the tax anyway after not resigning Brook Lopez. But, yeah, look, I understand, like, having Miles Turner is both a way to show Giannis that you're still trying to win. And he is a guy that if they do move on from Giannis in the next year or two, there's a lot of teams he would fit on. I was just glancing through the standings, and you could probably come up with 10 different teams pretty quick that Miles Turner would be a decent fit on. And it's a reasonable contract. It's not out of bounds with what the market was going to be for him. So I do think that the Bucks could walk away with an extra asset or two. They are going to have dead money on their books for a long time. But like we've talked about before, they're not Phoenix, which is a place the Fres are In theory, going to want to go cap space is not as much of a thing in Milwaukee. And if they move on from Giannis, they're going to be in a pretty lengthy rebuild anyway. So.
- [13:13]
Tim Bontemps
Well, and, and they're going to be in a rough spot to rebuild because as they've continued to try to put a contender around Giannis, they've obviously given up a lot of their picks. And so like the Damian Lillard deal, which, hey, I liked it at the time, I like them taking that swing. The results stunk. It is what it is. There was some misfortune in that. But the simple fact is they owe a ton of money to Dame for now, years to come and they still owe picks for Dame and that's a really, really rough spot to, to be in a potential rebuild. But this is, this is what you do when you have this kind of a talent that is, you know, the Bucks haven't had this kind of a talent since Kareem. And no matter what happens, whether Giannis spends his whole career in Milwaukee or whether he asks out tomorrow, the Giannis air in Milwaukee has been a massive success. To bring a championship to Milwaukee, to have this kind of run with a, you know, with a multi time MVP has been a massive success. But the post Yanis stretch in Milwaukee is going to be painful. There's just no way around that. And you can call this a hedge against it, but it's, it's not going to be a smooth transition whether, you know, they have, whether it's Giannis retiring down the road or whether it's, you know, in the, in the near future.
- [14:35]
Brian Windhorst
Well, I'll never forget when I, as I get older, I keep getting these sayings. If you think I'm getting too heavy on these sayings, tough. But I once had this arborist come to my house. It's one of the things you have when you're a homeowner. You have to have arborists come. And I was talking to him about planting a tree.
- [14:55]
Ryan Reynolds
Oh, no, you don't. No, you don't. You don't have to do that, buddy. You don't have to.
- [15:00]
Brian Windhorst
Sometimes you do.
- [15:02]
Ryan Reynolds
Some people have arborists come to their house.
- [15:04]
Brian Windhorst
Let's just say, well, when you live in a neighborhood where if trees fall on your power lines in your house, you sometimes have to have arborists. Anyway, this arborist provided me with a, with an important saying and I, I said, he says, people often ask me when the best time to plant a tree is and the answer is last year. And so this is What I say, I say when's the best time to begin a rebuild in the NBA? Last year.
- [15:31]
Tim Bontemps
Or, or I hear what you're saying. Or, but, or the worst time, like if you have Giannis, Milwaukee, you run that out for as long as you can.
- [15:40]
Brian Windhorst
No, I agree. But when independent of Giannis, when it comes time for a rebuild.
- [15:46]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah.
- [15:47]
Brian Windhorst
You know, the first part is the hardest part. So if you can, if you can hedge, then you can then hedge.
- [15:54]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah.
- [15:55]
Tim Bontemps
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the only team that I can think of that was able to have a head start on a rebuild.
- [16:01]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, it's, I just think we're being a little charitable saying it's a hedge when they, they have $112 million in dead money on their books.
- [16:09]
Brian Windhorst
Well, as they're, as they're trying to figure out whether they should do that deal, that maneuver, you had to think about all angles of it. It wasn't something done flippantly. Okay. Of course I do think that of on this list that we have, we've just scratched the surface on here. The, the Timberwolves being in this, you know, putting championship window closing in the putting the Timberwolves is one of the more interesting things you've done on this list. And you know, you explained why. Because they've got core players who are old and they've mortgaged their draft. But.
- [16:36]
Tim Bontemps
And the biggest question there is the point guard of the future. And I agree with Bond Timps, I don't know that it's Rob Dillingham.
- [16:46]
Ryan Reynolds
They made a huge bet. Tim kind of made a huge bet on Rob Dillingham to be the long term backcourt mate with Anthony Edwards.
- [16:53]
Tim Bontemps
I think Rob Dillingham is a lot more Lou Williams than Chris Paul. And Lou Williams had a great NBA career, quality player. But my point is I think he's an undersized bench bucket getter and not a run your team point guard.
- [17:06]
Brian Windhorst
Well, the San Antonio spurs, which is who they made that, that deal with for Dillingham, their picks have been used on three point guards in the last two drafts and three guards. And Dillingham is not like the other two. So that's, you know, that's. If he had one of those two guys, Dylan Harper, Stefan Castle, you would maybe feel a little differently. Okay.
- [17:27]
Ryan Reynolds
More Hoop Collective podcast after this.
- [17:31]
Brian Windhorst
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- [17:34]
Ryan Reynolds
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Brian Windhorst
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Ryan Reynolds
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Brian Windhorst
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- [17:57]
Tim Bontemps
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- [18:24]
Brian Windhorst
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- [19:20]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, the Thunder obviously are the epitome of that, as are the team that's, I think, their biggest challenger in the west this year. Potentially the Houston Rockets. Even though they just traded for Kevin Durant, they have a team built around young guys with a bunch of draft picks that can extend that window out into the future. And then it's the three teams that should be sitting atop the Eastern Conference this year. The Cavs. Cavs corner the New York Knicks and the Orlando Magic, all of whom have all of their core players under contract for multiple years. All of whom have cores that are somewhere in their mid to late twenties that should have some extended window together and frankly also benefit from the fact that they're in the Eastern Conference and there's just a cavernous vacuum at the top, particularly with Jason Tatum and Tyrese Halliburton sideline with injuries with their torn Achilles for this season. And that inherently gives you a lot more wiggle room to have an extended window than in the very brutally difficult Western Conference.
- [20:18]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, so I had a I was talking to an executive the other Day. And he was saying to me, he goes, what are the great rivalries in the game today? And you know, I'm like, boy, is this an August question? You know, you come up with some. And he's like, well, I know what the next great rivalry in the NBA is. And I go, what?
- [20:40]
Tim Bontemps
I'll.
- [20:40]
Brian Windhorst
I'll bite. What? He goes, the Thunder versus the cba, you know, because the way that they maneuver to keep this. What'd you say? Buntos?
- [20:50]
Ryan Reynolds
I don't even think that's true.
- [20:52]
Tim Bontemps
I was gonna say, I like Presti's odds on that one. Go on.
- [20:55]
Ryan Reynolds
I mean, they're not, they're not even going to be in the repeater tax. So the new CBA comes online in 2030. So, you know, I, you're.
- [21:02]
Brian Windhorst
You're declaring it already over.
- [21:03]
Ryan Reynolds
I, I just think they're, I mean, look, they're not in the tax. They weren't in the tax last year when they won. They're not in the tax this year when they could win again. And they have a ton of flex. Yes, they have the three guys on, you know, she goes, Alexander, Jalen Williams, Jed Holmgren on max contracts going forward. However, they have draft picks out the wazoo to have young, cheap talent around them. They have great contracts on their books otherwise, and they have flexibility on their higher priced veterans, namely Lou Dort and Isaiah Hartenstein, to maneuver their books around that way. So I don't. I think they're better set up than any other team, frankly, to deal with the CBA because they have all this young talent already, which is why it's a rivalry. I mean, I think, I think it's more for the Cavs and the Knicks and the Magic and these other teams.
- [21:51]
Brian Windhorst
Right, but none of those teams are the champs.
- [21:53]
Tim Bontemps
Well, but I agree with Bond Tims in the sense of Presti and the Thunder are going to have some difficult decisions to make, but those decisions are going to be, you know, fourth, fifth, sixth spots on the roster. Not one, two and three. And, you know, we'll see how things work out long term in terms of like, hey, is there a, is there another deal to work out with with Lou Dort, with Hartenstein when those come around? But they have so many picks to be able to, you know, backload there. Like the guy they just drafted from Georgetown is a potential Isaiah Hardenstein replacement. We'll see if it comes to that center from Georgetown. Yeah, we'll see if it comes to that. Like Case and Wallace and, and, you know, some of the decisions might end up being on on guys they hit on in the draft. Like, hey, if Case Wallace keeps the trajectory that is that he's on right now, you know he's going to be positioned for a pretty good payday. But again, they've got an MVP who's just hitting his prime, an all NBA player who's a couple years away from touching his prime. And Holmgren a lot of people might value even more than Jalen Williams who also hasn't touched his prime. And those guys are locked up long term with a ton of flexibility around him. Odds against the cba of these teams.
- [23:17]
Brian Windhorst
That you have listed here, bon th, only one of them is in the second apron now and that's the Cavs.
- [23:23]
Ryan Reynolds
Right. The team that I am, the team that I am fascinated about going forward and I'm not sure how big their window actually is is Orlando. The Orlando Magic are insanely expensive already. Like they are. They are below the first apron this year. However, with just looks like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 players under contract next year. They're already, according to Bobby's numbers, over $6 million over the second apron now when they fill out their roster, you're talking about a team that does not pay the tax that often could be $40 million over the tax, could be $45 million over the tax, could be$50 million over the tax. I don't think that's a very long term viable strategy in Orlando and I that is when you talk about teams going up against the cba, that's an example of a team that they just went all in on. Desmond Bain, we talked about the trade at the time. I love the fit of Desmond Bain in Orlando. Let's see if Franz Wagner and Paulo Bankero can take steps forward shooting wise. Let's see if Jalen Suggs can stay healthy. But that core four, if they're on the court, could be right up there with Cleveland and right up there with the Knicks in the east for sure. But is that ownership group going to spend 40, 50 million over the tax for a four year window? I'm not sure about that.
- [24:51]
Brian Windhorst
Well, it's also about the quality of the players. Like we again our big summer at least my big summer promise going forward here is I'm going to be talking, I'm going to try to talk more about percentage of the cap as opposed to the actual number. So when you look at percentage of the cap, yeah, they're in decent shape today. But between Franz Wagner, Desmond Bain and Jalen Suggs, they're making over 70% of the cap for those.
- [25:18]
Tim Bontemps
And then you have to mention the guy who's going to be making the most money.
- [25:22]
Brian Windhorst
Right, but. Well, his money isn't on the books yet. But yeah, obviously next year Paolo, I know, Exactly. Will make 25%. Well, actually I guess he could make higher depending on whether he gets all NBA super, super max. But you know, how many all star appearances, you know, between Wagner, Bane and Suggs, do they have two? You know, Frank Franz made one all star team. Did Bane make one all star team?
- [25:48]
Ryan Reynolds
They have zero. I don't know.
- [25:49]
Brian Windhorst
I was gonna say France make the all star team.
- [25:51]
Ryan Reynolds
I thought he have zero. Those guys have zero.
- [25:53]
Brian Windhorst
Okay, so, so, and so let me ask you this. In five years, how many they're going to have?
- [25:58]
Tim Bontemps
Well, they've got a lot better chance. They get a lot better chance in the East.
- [26:01]
Brian Windhorst
Fair enough. But my point is.
- [26:03]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, but, but yeah, there may be.
- [26:05]
Brian Windhorst
That's 70 of your, of your, of your cap, those three guys. Now Paolo, that's a guy who is, you know, presenting as a guy who could be a multi time all star, but you got 70 of your, of your, of your cap tied up in three guys who are good players. Don't get me wrong. But g is that, you know, let's look at the 70% of the cap that the, that the, the Thunder have. I mean, I granted that's a high, that's a high bar, but, but that's.
- [26:31]
Tim Bontemps
That, that's the bar if you're going to be a second apron team.
- [26:34]
Ryan Reynolds
I and I had the numbers a little bit backwards. They're, they're a couple million below the second apron. I was looking at the two lines wrong on the sheet, but there's still a team that's going to be on pace to be 30 million over the tax next year. And again, how long are they going to be willing to spend that kind of money to have four big contracts on the books when Jalen Suggs is on a descending deal? I think that's gonna end up looking pretty good. But you know, that, that I think is where you're going to see a lot of questions with whether it's the Cavs or the Magic or even the Knicks, like these teams are consistently in the tax bumping up against the second apron whether they get into it or not. The, the one thing that we haven't really touched on much in the CBA is that the repeater tax penalties are a lot stronger now than they used to be. And for all the talk about taking away tools from teams. It's a hell of a lot more expensive for teams to be way over the tax now, especially if they get to the repeater than it used to be. And that I think more than anything is going to cause teams to have to retrench on spending. So.
- [27:33]
Brian Windhorst
And that's one of the reasons you're going to have the the Boston Celtics who just made a move in this week to offload friend of the pod George Niang salary. The Celtics are really focused on getting under the tax. Yes. They don't want to outlay the money but if they're going to have this gap year, it's so important for them to help reset the repeater march because.
- [27:56]
Ryan Reynolds
They'Re already a repeater tax team.
- [27:58]
Brian Windhorst
Right. It's so it's difficult. And so by the way, just to compare the Cavs who are a second apron team, if you look at Mobley Mitchell and Garland, all of them, their contracts are all on the books. That's about 85% of the, of the tax. I'm sorry. Of the cap.
- [28:15]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah.
- [28:16]
Brian Windhorst
So you know like Donovan Mitchell's a first team all NBA player, Evan Moby's defensive player of the year, second team all NBA player, Garland's multi time all star. I'm not saying that that's you know, Wade, LeBron Bosch, but the Magic are trying to beat him. You know, that's a team they're trying to beat. And so as you as you calculate going forward and mean and health plays a role, you can't always predict that but anyway.
- [28:43]
Tim Bontemps
Well, the Magic made a big, big bet on Desmond Bain both in what they gave up the picks package including you know, or highlighted by the Sun's pick in next year's draft and financially and they need that bet to pay major dividends or there's going to be a lot of uncertainty. I do want to hit real quick though on the Rockets and that because the Rockets to me are fascinating. They're in a fascinating, they've created a fascinating situation. But I agree they've got, I think there's well positioned to have a long run as any franchise other than Oklahoma City, despite the fact that they just went all in. They didn't go all in. They just made a trade to get Kevin Durant. Who what's he going into? Year 18, year 1718.
- [29:31]
Brian Windhorst
By the way, it's August 6th as we're recording this and Kevin Durant does not have a contract.
- [29:36]
Tim Bontemps
That's where I was headed. They did not go all in on the trade. They made a trade at a price that they were okay with that did not sacrifice the long term. Jalen Green was the second round pick that didn't really pan out. You know, we talked when they made the trade. If you're ranking, if you're ranking the young players on the roster by future value, by long term value, he might have been fifth or sixth on that list. And then, you know, they didn't really have like an immediate spot for the 10th overall pick in this year's draft. Hell, they didn't. They couldn't squeeze the third overall pick in last year's draft into the rotation. The Rockets aren't going to go all in. By all appearances and by what I've heard, they're not going all in on an extension for Kevin Durant now. Doesn't mean it won't happen. But you know, there have been rumblings of, hey, KD doesn't you know he's not going to push for the full max. I don't know that the Rockets are going to put anything on the table that's close to the max. I think the Rockets are like, it's not ideal, but I don't think they would panic if they go into the season with Kevin Durant just on the contract that he's on, just on the, on the expiring deal. So.
- [30:54]
Brian Windhorst
Well, this is one of the things I talked about when Durant was on the market, about whether a team looked at Durant as a expire, would be comfortable with them on an expiring contract or felt that they needed to give him a two year, 110 to $120 million extension and that that was going to affect what teams would pay for him. And as you said, the, you know, and I'll say this, Rafael Stone, since he's been GM of the, of the Rockets, he signed quite a few giant contracts, but most of them have been short. Like Jalen Green's contract was shorter and you know, Fred Van Vliet short has signed two short contracts. Even this contract they signed with Dorian Finney Smith, 22 years guaranteed.
- [31:45]
Tim Bontemps
Sengun was well south of max.
- [31:47]
Brian Windhorst
Well and the two long contracts he's given out, which are Alperin Shingoon and Jabari Smith Jr. Were both contracts that now we'll see everybody's health goes and everything, were two contracts that the league viewed as good value contracts.
- [32:02]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah.
- [32:02]
Ryan Reynolds
Yes. Rafael Stone has done an outstanding job and the Rockets as a whole have done an outstanding job of all understanding the new economic environment the league is in. And we've talked about It a lot. Teams have to be much better about negotiating every dollar on deals. And you look at what the Rockets have done, they have done a great job. Frankly. The only deal that wasn't like that was the Jalen Green deal, which they got to get out of jail free card on the Kevin Durant trade. But all these other trades that they've done or all these other deals that they've done. You know, you keep talking about percentage of the cap. Brian apparent Shangun is 18% of the cap. He just made it all star team last year. Fred Van Vliet 16% of the cap. Jabari Smith Jr. His contract starts out his extension under 15% of the cap and goes down from there every year. So those are all good solid long term contracts. And as McMahon said, when you have all these young players and you're trying to have this depth going forward, which is we've seen over the past couple of years, deeper teams are probably going to have more success with where the league is headed. You have to mind your P's and Q's when it comes to these contracts and not be giving out extra money on deals where you wind up in the second apron sooner and you have all these difficult financial questions facing you sooner. And it's why these Kevin Durant negotiations are very interesting and I'm very curious to see where they land as whether A he gets an extension done at all and B if he does get an extension done, what the number is. Because if you look at what the Rockets history is, history would tell you it's not going to be two years for the max number. It's going to be something a decent way south of that.
- [33:35]
Brian Windhorst
Also actions over words. Watch the way the Rockets have handled their business this summer. They have handled their business this summer to maximize cap space in 2027. So you look at Fred Van Vliet's contract, he has a player option but it he it he's up in 27 now. Maybe he does another deal in a year from now and they reevaluate. But he is off the books in 27. Dorian Finney Smith non guaranteed in 27. Bon Temps. You mentioned Jabari Smith Jr contact contract dips in 27, then goes back up in 28, dips down. I think they did the same thing with Stephen Adams contract starts at a certain number, dips down in 27.
- [34:19]
Ryan Reynolds
His contract is descending right from the beginning.
- [34:21]
Brian Windhorst
Let's see what happens with Tari Eason, whether they get a deal done with him. But I'm looking at this And I'm. I'll make a wager right now that it wouldn't surprise me if a deal. Tari Eason signs dips in 27. And I say that. The reason I say that. Sorry.
- [34:36]
Ryan Reynolds
No, it's okay.
- [34:37]
Brian Windhorst
Durant, if he does an extension, you know, he can sign for two years, but that second year would be 27, 28. The rockets actions indicate they're protecting space in 27. I don't know. They've got to have their reason why. And maybe it's a hedge on something else and it won't matter in a year. But keep that in mind as you think about what they're going to do with Durant. If they're. If they've done four or five contracts that prioritize dipping their space and creating maneuverability in 27, I don't think you should assume that Durant's going to have a giant number in 27, 28 on the. On the table.
- [35:13]
Ryan Reynolds
The only thing to add there, though, is that all that is true, there's a certain guy who's going to be coming online with a new contract in the summer, 2027. Good. And I'm in Thompson, who I suspect if he's not making the max, I suspect he's going to be awfully close to the max. And that is gonna. That is going to eat a heavy chunk into any potential space that Houston will have from a contractual standpoint that summer. But, yes, the Rockets have done a remarkable job of showing fiscal discipline and restraint all the way through. And I think if they can continue to do that, they're going to have a real advantage over the competition because we've seen other teams not do that, and I think it's going to bite them later. And if you do that, like Houston has and like Oklahoma City has to some extent, too, with the way they have their books set up, it's going to really pay off for you down the road in terms of managing your mind, managing your money in this new environment we're in.
- [36:17]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, fiscal discipline and an asset discipline as well. They're still loaded.
- [36:22]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah. And like, look, a big trade could come to the fore in the next, you know, six to nine months, and they could go all in on that trade, and their maneuverability for 27 could be moot because they may have another player on that books, but they certainly, at least before that would happen, have made these decisions this way. All right, the next tier, all in on building around young cores. Bon temps.
- [36:47]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah. Five teams here at land, some in a couple of them kind of interesting. I would say Atlanta and Detroit in the east, obviously, San Antonio out west of Victor Wembanyama and then the other two, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Portland Trailblazers.
- [37:03]
Tim Bontemps
Atlanta is interesting in part because as you're discussing their Young core, you did not include Trae Young.
- [37:13]
Brian Windhorst
It's not that Young.
- [37:14]
Tim Bontemps
Well, he's. What is he, 26 now? I believe 26, 27.
- [37:19]
Ryan Reynolds
Either way. I mean, yeah, look, I would say.
- [37:22]
Tim Bontemps
That he is 26, turning 27 in September.
- [37:25]
Ryan Reynolds
There you go.
- [37:26]
Brian Windhorst
All right.
- [37:26]
Ryan Reynolds
I would say Trey Young is a classic actions over words situation. He's got one year left on his contract before he can be a free agent. He is not signed an extension yet. And like we talked about the other day with de' Aaron Fox, I don't think there's a huge market for point guards around the league tradewise in sort of that tier of player. And I think the way that the Hawks have set up their team, they've sort of set up an ensemble cast around Trey Young where they don't really have a replacement for Trey Young to run their offense. But there's also not a clear home for Trey Young to go elsewhere as a free agent. I would compare him in some ways to Julius Randall situation in Minnesota this past year and he ended up getting new deal done this summer at about the number he was at. I'll be curious to see if an extension gets done with Trey Young or what happens there. But I think if you look at where the Hawks are headed, it's with a team that's built around Jalen Johnson, last year's number one overall pick, Zachary Richache, and then the potential juicy pick they could have next year from the New Orleans Pelicans, which certainly if you talk to people in the league who run numbers, that's got a really good chance of being a top five or six pick in what is a loaded top of next year's draft. And if they end up with a native meant Darren Peterson, a AJ Debancer, Cameron Boozer to go with these other guys. That's a pretty awfully interesting situation. But yeah, the Trey Young component of Atlanta's future going forward is going to be really interesting to monitor because I if I was, if I was Atlanta, I would be offering Trey sort of a deal like what Rudy Gobert got done with Minnesota. Take a bit of money off what you're making now, get some more years, lock yourself in with the Hawks, guarantee yourself you're going to get your number retired in the Future best player they've had since Dominique. And we've got a team with an ensemble cast around you that's got a chance to be a real force in the east with you on it, but we can't do it with Yana Max. So it'll be how that conversation goes.
- [39:43]
Tim Bontemps
I think it's gonna be hard to convince Trey Young and listen, we, we understand the limitations or the flaws, but I think it's gonna be hard to convince Trey Young with his offensive production that he doesn't merit a Max deal. So, you know, I, again, I, I think that I, I don't disagree with what you're saying. I don't disagree with the implication that Trae Young is not the. That everything is not revolving around Trae Young in Atlanta anymore. I just think it's an interesting thing to point out.
- [40:13]
Brian Windhorst
It's interesting. You have the Blazers on this list. I want to talk about the Blazers real quick.
- [40:19]
Ryan Reynolds
That was, I would say that was more of a Kevin Pelton choice to put them in this tier than me.
- [40:25]
Brian Windhorst
He just shoved him right out front there.
- [40:27]
Ryan Reynolds
No, it's just the truth.
- [40:29]
Tim Bontemps
Oh. What he's saying is that specific Northwest homerism.
- [40:33]
Brian Windhorst
Well, it just, I, we had discussions.
- [40:36]
Ryan Reynolds
That went different ways. I pushed for. To be in the first tier and Kevin, I would say push for Portland to be in this tier as example.
- [40:43]
Brian Windhorst
Right. Well, just like this is a team that, you know, has Jeremy Grant on a giant untradeable contract and just traded for Drew holiday and his 100 million and signed Dame Lillard and so it's.
- [40:54]
Ryan Reynolds
Hard to sign Lillard. Yeah.
- [40:56]
Tim Bontemps
To a literally untradeable contract.
- [40:57]
Brian Windhorst
That's right.
- [40:58]
Tim Bontemps
No trade clause contract.
- [40:59]
Brian Windhorst
I mean, hopefully that ends up being a good value contract that he comes back and is an all star again out the. At the. At the.
- [41:06]
Tim Bontemps
Well, if it is. And it's basically a one year deal. One year that he plays deal. Because he also has a player option that.
- [41:13]
Brian Windhorst
I mean, we don't need to go over it again. But the, the setup that Dame Lillard got, the torn Achilles was horrendous. And everything that's happened since, not that it makes up for it. Everything that's happened since has been amazing for him, including that's.
- [41:31]
Ryan Reynolds
That's a contract the extra money is getting. Yeah, look in Portland, Portland is in a really interesting spot. They obviously bought out deandre Ayton this summer to clear a pathway for playing time for both Donovan Clingan, who they drafted in the lottery last year, and Young Hansen, who they drafted 16th this year. They clearly have a lot of faith in him as a player. Long term they have Shane Sharpe and Scoot Henderson in the backcourt. I'm curious to see if both of them are starting or not and what the futures for those guys are. Obviously you just mentioned they traded for Jrue Holiday this summer. They clearly have visions of him playing a big role. They still have Jeremy Grant, you know, they've got Deniavia who's. Who's taken some really nice strides forward for them. He's on a great long term deal. I do think they're kind of caught in between more. I would have them in this tier but the argument is you've got Scoot Henderson, you've got Satan Sharp, you've got the two bigs. They've leaned into that as the core of their team going forward. Danny Avi is a young guy still.
- [42:33]
Tim Bontemps
Tamani Kamara I think and to money.
- [42:35]
Ryan Reynolds
Kamara is the other guy obviously. Yes, he deserves in that conversation too.
- [42:39]
Tim Bontemps
And what is Scoot Henderson? What is Shane Sharper? Huge, huge question marks. Obviously like there is major upside there but the discussion there is about potential. It's not about production or anything that's proven at this point.
- [42:58]
Brian Windhorst
As for the Grizzlies, you've got Ja and Jaren Jackson and their young core. Are you including, are you including Santee Aldama and Zach Edie? Is that part of the core or.
- [43:11]
Ryan Reynolds
You know, I mean I would say the core of that team. If you just look at it from the way they've allocated assets, it's the two stars, John Jaron, it's Zach E. Who they drafted ninth and it's Cedric Coward who they drafted 11th and traded up to get like that's, you know. And then you've got Jalen Wells too who they like a lot and obviously they moved Desmond Bain thinking that Jalen Wells can step into his spot in the starting lineup. Spencer, they also signed Camp Spencer this summer. I mean they've, you know, Zach Kleiman, they've done a nice job of churning out a lot of useful players from, you know, got Scotty Pippen Jr found him on scrap heap, turned into a really good player. Like they've, they've done a really good job of generating depth over the past several years. But they made a big swing on Cedric Coward in the draft. The guy only played a few games last year in college. Came out, was the big late riser in the lottery. He's the prototypical wing size player, the.
- [44:07]
Brian Windhorst
Kind of guy that Memphis Desmond Bain replacement.
- [44:10]
Ryan Reynolds
Well I mean, they would probably argue more Jalen Wells.
- [44:14]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, Jalen Wells is also a major part of their young core and he's the guy who is going to be in the starting line. He took Marcus Smart starting job last year. But I think they look at him as. And Coward is a similar prospect. Right. Completely off the radar. A D3 guy. I mean, Wells was D2 who, you know, transferred, I think both to Washington State, if I'm not mistaken. And you know, it's a lot about, you know, the. The three and D Cowards, I think longer, a little bit more athletic but. But that type of guy. And then, you know, you guys mentioned this here, but also if you're talking about the Grizzlies, young Gore, they will be making a significant addition to that in next year's draft for the Sun's pick.
- [45:00]
Brian Windhorst
We'll see. Maybe the Suns will be better than everybody thinks.
- [45:03]
Tim Bontemps
You also put the Detroit Suns in the west playoffs.
- [45:06]
Brian Windhorst
I'm just trying to. You also have the Pistons on here. Who I. Who I. This actually be a really interesting season for the Pistons because they took the big giant step last year. Where do they find their more improvement? They had a really, you know, they had a competitive series with. With the Knicks in that first round. Who knows if Jalen Brunson doesn't hit that one shot where he just stuck his leg in the ground. One of the great moves the whole playoffs where he pivoted and hit that shot. Just dropping the dagger in Detroit after.
- [45:35]
Tim Bontemps
Sar Thompson had been shutting him down for a few minutes.
- [45:39]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah. So they get Jaden Ivey back from that injury, you know, but definitely they're so. They're young core, obviously. Kate Cunningham, who hit the supermax. Jade Nivey and Asar Thompson, you know, Ron Holland, a guy that they drafted in the top five a year ago who didn't have a really impactful rookie year. They're hoping he takes the stuff forward. He would have to be, I'm sure, included in that.
- [46:03]
Tim Bontemps
Jalen Duran, a guy who.
- [46:05]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, Duran is really young.
- [46:06]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, he's been around a while, but He's. He turns 23 right around the start of the regular season. I'm sorry, 22 right around the start of the regular season.
- [46:15]
Brian Windhorst
Right. So that's a. Detroit's a team to. A team to pay attention to this year for various reasons. We'll see when the schedule comes out. But it would not surprise me if they have some made for TV matchups where they get a little bit more attention this year because of what they did last year. We talked about the Spurs.
- [46:33]
Ryan Reynolds
A lot more Hoop collective podcast after this.
- [46:38]
Brian Windhorst
It's the Smuckers Uncrustables podcast with your host, Uncrustables.
- [46:44]
Ryan Reynolds
Okay, today's guest is rough around the edges.
- [46:47]
Brian Windhorst
Please welcome crust.
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Tim Bontemps
Thanks for having me.
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Ryan Reynolds
Today's topic, he's round with soft pillowy bread.
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Tim Bontemps
Hey.
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Ryan Reynolds
Filled with delicious PB and J. Are you talking about yourself? And you can take them anywhere.
- [46:59]
Brian Windhorst
Why'd you invite. And we are out of time.
- [47:02]
Ryan Reynolds
Are you really cutting me off? Uncrustables are the best part of the sandwich.
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Tim Bontemps
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Ryan Reynolds
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Tim Bontemps
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Ryan Reynolds
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Brian Windhorst
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Tim Bontemps
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Ryan Reynolds
You've seen the headlines, heard the debates.
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Brian Windhorst
The three point ball has created a monotonous rhythm to the game. Has the three pointer ruined basketball?
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Ryan Reynolds
And how did we get here?
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Brian Windhorst
The rise of the three point point shot can be partially traced to an eccentric Kansas genius named Martin Manley, whose story didn't turn out quite the way he imagined.
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Tim Bontemps
I decided I wanted to have one of the most organized goodbyes in history.
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Brian Windhorst
30 for 30 podcast presents Chasing Basketball Heaven.
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Ryan Reynolds
Available now wherever you get your podcasts.
- [48:12]
Brian Windhorst
Okay, the next tier, Bond temps. You have all in on two timelines. And this is the one of the. I think I like this one maybe the most out of all of these. And you've got a bunch of teams you think have two timelines. With good reason.
- [48:26]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, Pelton, that was Pelton's idea. That makes more sense together. And obviously a bunch of star power teams here in the two timelines are for, you know, obviously it's the, you know, you go back, the Golden State warriors are in this tier and you go back to the whole light years ahead with the, the lottery picks thing. But it's two timelines for a lot of different reasons. So.
- [48:46]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, I mean, they don't, they don't want you. They don't want to hear their name mentioned. With two timelines again, I try to retire that.
- [48:51]
Ryan Reynolds
That's right. But the teams as a whole are golden State, two LA teams, the Clippers and Lakers, Miami, Dallas and Philadelphia.
- [49:00]
Brian Windhorst
Dallas sort of fell ass backwards into two timelines on lottery night.
- [49:05]
Tim Bontemps
You know what, the two timelines thing with Dallas really is fascinating though because obviously in a lot of ways from a business perspective and just from like, hey, what the hell's the future after this? Byron, Nico's words. Three to four year window, right? You created the Cooper Flag stroke of lottery luck, bailed the Mavericks out. Now having said that, it's going to be very interesting to see kind of how long is it before the transition happens that this is Cooper Flag's franchise? Kind of how does that go? It's, it's AD's franchise right now. You know, when Kyrie comes back, it'll be AD and Kyries with Cooper Flag is kind of the primary marketing interest. But at a certain point it'll be his franchise. And then there's, there's going to be major challenges building long term around him because of the picks and the swaps that they gave up to successfully build a contender around Luca. I mean when you think about like, you know, typically you get a generational talent at number one overall and there's going to be a couple more cracks at the, at the early lottery. Right. Like look at San Antonio. You know, you get Wimby, you get Stefan Castle, you know, they kind of lucked into Dylan Harper, but they, you know, they got a few cracks. Early lottery. Derek Liver II is a early lottery type of talent, but he's probably going to be the only other young piece that, that is kind of on that same timeline with Cooper Flag. You know, they have this year's Pick and then 27 to 30, it's either they don't have the pick or, or it's a swap and it's going to be, you know, it's a swap with The Thunder in 28, swap with the spurs, who I think will be pretty Damn good by 30. And so there's not going to be a lot of young talent being added to the mix as Cooper Flag is, you know, getting into his, his early 20s.
- [51:09]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, so also on this list the two LA teams, but the Lakers clearly, you know, set up around 26 year old Luca. Don, is he 27 or 26?
- [51:21]
Tim Bontemps
He turns 27 in February. 26.
- [51:23]
Brian Windhorst
Okay, so he's 26 now obviously, especially with the comments that Rob Pelinka made, you know, around signing him. Rightfully so. But then they've got this team this year with 41 year old LeBron who is coming off of All NBA season.
- [51:39]
Tim Bontemps
I was gonna say a 41 year old, all NBA, right. LeBron James.
- [51:44]
Brian Windhorst
But you wrote in here Bon Temps about the Austin Reeves situation. And Austin Reeves is sort of straddling the timelines here because he definitely was a player who thrived, maybe not always with LeBron on the court, but certainly with the LeBron formatted team. You know that when they went to the conference finals, Austin Reeves was a big role in that and he remains a big role in the team. But he's lined more in age with, with Luka and he's going into the final year of his contract. He's got an opt out after this year, which he's almost certainly going to take. And you talked in here about what a contract for him might look like. And so here's my question to you, Bontems, and this may be a question the Lakers have to answer. Which timeline is Austin Reaves in? Not necessarily with his age, but is he, does he represent? Because they're going to have to make a decision here. They're going to make a decision about whether they're going to pay Austin's. You, you quote league, you know, league executives here saying this guy's getting over 30 million a year. I don't disagree. This, the Austin Reeves portion of this is an interesting. Think it's going to develop over this next six to nine months.
- [52:50]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, to be clear, that was in a story I did with Bobby Marks and about the Lakers. That's right, about the Lakers. That also ran on Wednesday. But yeah, no, look, the. I think the Austin Reeves, you know, there's been a lot of talk about what is going to happen with LeBron James when he becomes a free agent next summer. But I think there's two very fascinating potential free agents in Los Angeles because we've talked about Austin Reaves before. He's right now on a deal that is below market for him. He's making in the final year of his deal this year $13.9 million. He's got a player option for $14.8 million. He will not be playing on that player option next year. He will be a free agent and he will be looking for a very big payday. I don't remember if you said the number when you were running through that or not, but I talked to a few people around the league gauging what his market would be and the belief is 30 million a year or more. And if you're paying Austin, he probably wants or more.
- [53:45]
Brian Windhorst
He's probably looking for the or more.
- [53:46]
Ryan Reynolds
Side of This I feel like I could say with pretty good clarity that he would think more than that. And look, you can make an argument that LeBron and Austin will be the two best free agents on the market next summer. There's a debate about, well, it depends.
- [54:00]
Brian Windhorst
On whether Trey Young or Kevin Durant.
- [54:02]
Ryan Reynolds
Well, but I mean look, he's, he's in his, and he's going to be 28 years old, but he's a big guard. He's 6 5. There's, you know, he could potentially be the, the, you know, the lead guard on your offense for you. Like they're, you know, third. People are big fans of Austin. That being said, if you look around the league, combo guards who are one position defenders, which I would say Austin Reeves is one, he defends a position well. He's a shooting guard. You know, he's like Tyler Hero. He's like Anthony Simons. He's like a lot of these guys who are very talented players who there has not been a great market for in terms of asset return and trades and they're probably the most replaceable player type in the league. So is he good enough to be the Jalen Brunson or the Kyrie Irving next to Luka Doncic long term? If he is, I think the Lakers can feel comfortable giving him that kind of number and having those two guys be your creators going forward. If he's not, then I think it's a real question you have to ask yourself. You're the Lakers about, you know, is that the right piece that you're going to build with, with him going forward? Because for all the talk about LeBron, whatever is going to happen with his future, the Austin Reeves question could be the one that has a much bigger bearing on the championship ceiling and window of the Lakers over the next few years. Because you're not signing him to a one or two year deal. He's getting a long term deal at a big number. And then you have him and Luka and then it's, you're building around him and Luka, assuming that he stays there. So that I do think that subplot throughout the season is going to be very interesting to watch, particularly after he really struggled in the Minnesota series. And as you guys both know, for all the attention on the Lakers this year and all the focus on Lucas future and everything else, how Austin Reeves plays this season and particularly assuming they get to the playoffs, how he plays in the playoffs is going to be an awfully interesting story to follow and it's going to potentially have A big bearing on the Lakers summer, next summer and their seasons beyond that, depending on what they decide to do.
- [56:07]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, he struggled against the Timberwolves. You know, in his defense, he did have a really good playoff run when they went to the Western Conference finals a couple of years ago. So, you know, it's not like we've never seen this guy play well in the playoffs. You know, you bring up Brunson and K. Some similarities here, some major differences. You know, one being that at this time last or this time that summer, the Mavericks could have gotten Brunson locked up to a contract that would have averaged 14 million a year, which. But once it got past that point, you know, once it got into January and Brunson gave him a last chance and then he kept playing better and I was like, oh, okay, hold on, I've outplayed that number. The Mavericks had a decision to make and that was trade them before that deadline, get value for them or take your chances of losing them for nothing that summer. And the Lakers are already on that. You know, they're in that situation now where their, their options are either take a chance of losing Reeves for nothing next summer or, you know, be willing to pay whatever it takes to keep them. They do have the advantage of, I'm sure Austin Reese would love to continue playing for the Lakers or like, if you don't want to pay what it's going to take to keep them, do you trade them midway through this season and try to get value?
- [57:39]
Brian Windhorst
You also have the Clippers on here. The Clippers, well, as is well known, have a whole bunch of guys in their mid to late 30s on their roster. They also have one guy on their roster right now who's under contract past next season. That's a Vitia zubotz.
- [57:56]
Ryan Reynolds
After that 27 season, to be clear.
- [58:00]
Brian Windhorst
You're saying after next season. Oh, you're saying this.
- [58:04]
Ryan Reynolds
Yes, after the 26, 27 season.
- [58:07]
Brian Windhorst
Their future books are completely clear. And he's talking about two timelines. They got all these guys on this roster from 34 year old Kawhi to 40 year old Chris Paul and you know, low Brooke with Brooke Lopez is like 37 and Batum is like 37, 38. And you know, John Collins is still in his 20s, I'm pretty sure, but James Harden is, I think 36. So they got, you know, this super veteran team now, but totally clean books. And they've, and they've, they've worked, you know, in their, you know, they've, they held the line a little bit With Kawhi on his extension, they've held the line on, on Harden's contracts. They've given him flexibility to opt out, but KE them short. You know, they, when they acquired John Collins for Norm Powell, they, they did that to, to keep some flexibility in park. So this, I mean they're sort of the epitome of two timelines for sure. And then you've got the 76ers on here, Bond temps. And I don't think this is by plan. I think it's by reality of the health of their highest paid players. I'm not sure how those guys are going to hold up.
- [59:16]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, I mean this is, they're a lot like Dallas. You've got a young top five. I mean obviously Cooper's a different level of prospect of. But they got the third pick in the draft. They have VJ Ed Comb, they have Tyrese Max, they have Jared McCain. They, I thought getting Jabari Walker on a two way this summer was nice. Like they have some good and interesting young, two young players on their roster. And then they've got Paul George and Joel Embiid, the two giant question marks in terms of their health, in terms of their ability to play at the level required for this team to be really good. And you know, that's, that's why they fit in this group. You could put them in a couple of different buckets if you wanted to. They're another team that's hard to put somewhere in Miami.
- [59:57]
Brian Windhorst
Just 70% of the cap, by the way, with those two guys, Georgia and.
- [60:01]
Ryan Reynolds
Miami, since we kind of glossed over them. They're, they're another one of these teams that has a bunch of cap space in the next year to. And has an okay roster. Now obviously they make the Norm Powell deal this summer, basically get him for free. They should be more of a factor in the east this year than they were the last couple of years. But you know, they've had some designs on trying to upgrade their roster money wise and they're going to have some money to spend in the next couple seasons too.
- [60:24]
Brian Windhorst
Well, an interesting thing for the Heat, do they extend Norman Powell? The same question that the Clippers had to deal with. And, and if. Do they extend Tyler Hero and if they do, at what number which would, you know, maybe clarify.
- [60:38]
Ryan Reynolds
Both of those guys, I would say fall into the same exact bucket that Austin Reaves is in. Also two more combo guards who are good players. Whether it's not voluminous market for them in the trade market, which is why Norm Powell was Acquired coming off the best year of his career by the Heat for Kyle Anderson, Kevin Love and his second.
- [60:58]
Brian Windhorst
All right, your next tier here is all in on gap years. And you've actually got two teams that are all in on gap years here.
- [61:06]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, this one is the easiest one on the whole list. You got Boston and Indiana, obviously. No Jason Tatum, no Tyrese Halliburton. The Celtics lose Drew Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis by trade as they, I believe will get out of the tax by the time we get to the end of the season and reset their repeater clock. They're only I think 10 or 12 million over the tax now. I think they'll get out of it one way or the other. And then Indiana loses Miles Turner. Whether they were surprised by the Bucks coming in like everyone else was or not, they were.
- [61:41]
Brian Windhorst
I think Kevin Pritchard's on. On the.
- [61:43]
Ryan Reynolds
I know, but my point is. I'm saying my point is. We talked all spring about were the Pacers actually going to be willing to pay the luxury tax, something they never do. And for all of the bluster they had about paying the tax, they are not paying the tax. And you could say they're not doing it because Tyrese Halberton is hurt. That's fine. But their team was built around an ensemble cast and Miles Turner was a big part of that. Miles Turner left and they've replaced him with Isaiah Jackson who also tore his ace his Achilles and is on a three year deal with non guarantees in the out years. And they traded for Jayhoff from Memphis. So both of these teams look like they're preparing more for the fall of 2026 rather than trying to be as competitive as they can in 2025.
- [62:28]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, Achilles tears created tears that put them in this tier.
- [62:32]
Brian Windhorst
The next one is you've got all in on quote, draft positioning.
- [62:38]
Tim Bontemps
The tankers, very simple.
- [62:41]
Ryan Reynolds
Brooklyn, Charlotte, Washington and Utah. I don't think we need to say much more than that.
- [62:44]
Brian Windhorst
Okay, I will say this. I've got Charlotte fans in my life who believe that the Hornets can can move this year.
- [62:52]
Tim Bontemps
Move what?
- [62:54]
Brian Windhorst
Move up?
- [62:56]
Ryan Reynolds
Well, if Charlotte wants to be competitive in the east this year and if Lamelo Ball and Brandon Miller are healthy, sure. I think you can make an argument certainly that Charlotte could get into the play in mix and have a chance to make the playoffs. I would also say again from an actions over word situation that the current centers on the Charlotte Hornets roster are Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kalkbrenner and the guy who might be their starter, Moussa Diabate, like that is not a center rotation of a team that I think is really aggressively trying to move up the standings this year. I think as Charlotte would love to get a crack at Darren Peterson native. Meantime, AJ Debance, you know, want Cameron Boozer one of these guys and then put their foot down and start to really rev things up.
- [63:51]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, I think if you're a Hornets fan, what you're looking for this year is you want Con Knippel to have a chance to win the Rookie of the Year. You want to see him like, be putting up big numbers. You want to see him playing alongside Brandon Miller and trying to figure out a way to get the three of them with Lamelo efficient in a way that doesn't make your stomach turn like sometimes happens the way they played offense last year. And if those three guys look like you've got something going, then you can be excited about it whether you finish 11th or whether you finish, you know.
- [64:25]
Ryan Reynolds
Well, let's see Lamelo ball play.
- [64:28]
Brian Windhorst
Well, that's fair.
- [64:30]
Ryan Reynolds
Played more than 51 games.
- [64:31]
Brian Windhorst
It's just interesting you don't have them under your. And I don't want to spend too much time belaboring the point, but we're going to throw, throw the Hornets fans a boner, but you don't have them on, you know, you know, devoted to their young tears here like you had with these other teams. And you know, Lamelo is also up for an extension.
- [64:48]
Tim Bontemps
I, I was gonna say, I think the biggest question about Charlotte's future is whether Lamello Ball will be part of it.
- [64:53]
Ryan Reynolds
Well, Lamelo's still a year away from extension talk. He's still got three more years on his deal after this year. But they, they've got. I mean, since he played 51 games as a rookie, he played 75 games his second year. The last three years he's played 36, 22 and 46 7. Like whatever, whatever other questions you want to have about Lamelo's game. Let's see him play 65 or 78. Let's see him qualify for end of season awards. Let's see him be healthy and productive for a full season. But yeah, look like these guys drafted T. John Salon. He's got a lot of time to grow still. Brandon Miller had surgery last year, missed a bunch of time. Let's see him come back and play. You mentioned Khan. Let's see what he can do. Brandon Miller played 27 games last year for them. Like, let's see their young guys on the court and playing and we'll see where they land. But my guess is this is another live.
- [65:45]
Brian Windhorst
They're energized by their summer league championship. Okay, in the last tier, you have all in.
- [65:52]
Tim Bontemps
This is two of them.
- [65:53]
Brian Windhorst
What?
- [65:54]
Tim Bontemps
He's got two more tiers.
- [65:55]
Ryan Reynolds
Two more tiers.
- [65:56]
Tim Bontemps
Skipped it.
- [65:57]
Brian Windhorst
Oh, there's, there's a single team tier that I didn't even see.
- [66:00]
Tim Bontemps
Oh, okay.
- [66:01]
Brian Windhorst
We'll get to there. That's a little teaser. All in on. Ooh, this is a harsh one.
- [66:07]
Tim Bontemps
These last two are both harsh. All in on USWB tiers if I've ever seen them.
- [66:12]
Brian Windhorst
Yeah, this was not Pelton. All in on nothing. I got nothing for you.
- [66:18]
Tim Bontemps
Go ahead. U F F I N Nothing.
- [66:22]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, Belton actually did come up with the team the, the term for the final tier, because I, I, I would have originally had that team.
- [66:29]
Brian Windhorst
If you, your fans, the fans. We'll see how many of them have done the powers of deduction.
- [66:36]
Ryan Reynolds
Well, the four teams in this group are Charlotte, Sacramento, New Orleans, Charlotte. Not Charlotte, Chicago, New Orleans, Sacramento, and Toronto.
- [66:45]
Brian Windhorst
Well, I certainly agree with the Bulls. They've been all in on nothing for a while.
- [66:49]
Tim Bontemps
I think the Pelicans would try to argue they're all in on their young core, including the two guys that they drafted in the first round this year in the lottery this year. But, boy, was that a befuddling. Just a befuddling trade to give up a likely higher pick in next year's draft to move up 10 spots.
- [67:13]
Brian Windhorst
Well, they're also one of the Achilles teams. Their Achilles injury dejounte Murray happened a while ago, so it doesn't get grouped in with the three unfortunate ones we saw in the postseason, but.
- [67:23]
Tim Bontemps
Well, and they weren't a playoff game team.
- [67:26]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, right. They're just sort of, they're just sort of whipsawing all over the place, and it's hard to really. It's hard to really get a sense of what the overall plan is with the new regime led by Joe Dumars and Charlie Weaver.
- [67:39]
Brian Windhorst
I would also say there's an unclear plan in Sacramento.
- [67:43]
Tim Bontemps
Oh, and real quick on New Orleans. Again, there's still the, hey, like, what's up with Zion? Is this a guy you're building around? Is like, is this a guy you can get value for?
- [67:55]
Brian Windhorst
There remains off court stuff.
- [67:57]
Tim Bontemps
Yes.
- [67:58]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, it's just, it's just, there's just, it's just not, there's not a lot of clarity in general there. Yeah. I mean, look, Sacramento a few years ago had Tyrese, Halliburton and de' Aaron Fox and then you have exit meetings, exit interviews back in April and demonic Sabonis is saying, yeah, we need a point guard on the team. Russ is still out there. They've basically recreated the Bulls from a couple years ago with the modest Abonis who are also. Well, yes, they've as the Modesta bonus, as in the Nick Vucevich spot alongside DeMar DeRozan and Zach Levine. Like it. I, I thought they did fine on the Deer and Fox trade when Fox wanted out to get the assets. They did for Fox at the time. But yeah, it's just from where these guys were a couple of years ago. They fire Mike Brown, they fire Monty McNair, they've. They've blown things half up and they're kind of stuck in no man's land where they're not really rebuilding and they're also not really good enough to be a playoff team.
- [69:01]
Brian Windhorst
So the Raptors fans would be annoyed that they're here. You know that those folks, those fine folks in Toronto are a little sensitive. They would be a little annoyed saying, you know, here comes Brandon Ingram and, and Grady Dick had a good finish to last year and you know Scotty Barnes, this is when he ascends and.
- [69:20]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, I mean Toronto, Toronto is kind of in the same spot where like they make this Brandon Ingram trade. I mean they essentially turn Fred Van Vliet, Pascal Siakamino, Gianninoby into RJ Barrett, Emmanuel Quickley and Brandon Ingram. Like when you look at the sum total of their moves, I'm not a huge fan of that. They gave Jakob Hurdle an odd extension. I thought this summer they have some interesting young guys. Grady Dick had an interesting year last year. Jacoby Walter has a potential Kamari Boyles, the guy they took with the ninth pick in this year's draft. Super interesting defensive prospect. He's got a chance to be in all.
- [69:56]
Brian Windhorst
Hey, Jamal Shed was a revelation down the stretch last year.
- [69:59]
Ryan Reynolds
I really like Jamal Shed. He's going to be a long term, really good backup point guard I think in the NBA like a long term rotation player. But it again like they're in the tax with the team that like are they out of the plane in the east? Maybe like in the plan? Well, they're definitely one of the 10 best teams in the East.
- [70:17]
Brian Windhorst
Well, this is the thing. I, I would almost say they're all in on the playing. Like maybe, maybe that would, maybe it's the same thing as saying all in on nothing. But I would, I think they're all in on the play in.
- [70:28]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, it's just. It's just hard to really pin down again, like, what the overall vision is like when. And maybe this is. I mean, obviously Messiah left this summer. He had an incredible run in Toronto. But if you go back a couple years ago when they started, when they didn't resign Fred Van Vliet and they made these trades, the idea was you bottom out and come back up. And last year they didn't keep their pick. Ended up going, ended up being the pick that became Rob Dillingham as part of a prior trade to bring Jakob back to Toronto. Don't like the value on that. This year they end up with the ninth pick again, get a player I think has got a chance to be a really good player and call Murray Boyles. But it's just felt like they've kind of been straddling, rebuilding and trying to get back in the playoffs for the past couple of years. And I'm not. I'm not thrilled about where it left them.
- [71:13]
Tim Bontemps
You. You said with. With certainty that They're a top 10 team in the East. They're better than Washington. They're better than Brooklyn. I'll give you Charlotte.
- [71:23]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah.
- [71:23]
Tim Bontemps
Who else are they with absolute certainty? Better than.
- [71:28]
Ryan Reynolds
They're better than Chicago. I would say for sure. Let me look at the standings.
- [71:33]
Tim Bontemps
I don't know if that's a certainty, but. Okay. Finish beneath them last year.
- [71:39]
Ryan Reynolds
I would say they're better than Chicago. I think there's a decent chance. But Philly has injuries. I think there's a decent chance they're better than Philly. I think they could be better than Boston potentially this year because I think the Celtics could really struggle. Boston Indy is another one you have questions about. Like, I think Toronto's floor, I think is fairly high because they have a bunch of solid players.
- [72:03]
Tim Bontemps
I think their floor is 12th.
- [72:05]
Ryan Reynolds
Well, I think their floor is higher than that. But my point is, I.
- [72:09]
Brian Windhorst
The.
- [72:09]
Ryan Reynolds
The ceiling is not very high, and if the like coming out the other side of a rebuild, in theory, they're on the other side of the rebuild now. Like, this is their team. This is why they're in this tier, because we're talking about them. And as Brian said, you could argue they're all in on the play in. I would say that's sort of the same kind of thing Sacramento was in. They're Sacramento or the East. I would say is the simplest way to put it.
- [72:31]
Tim Bontemps
That's never something.
- [72:35]
Brian Windhorst
You don't want to hear, however you finish that sentence.
- [72:38]
Ryan Reynolds
You're the One difference is. The one difference there that is worth pointing out is Scotty Barnes has a chance to be really, really good. And if he does take a big step forward and becomes an all NBA forward, a true all NBA forward this year, like what Kate Cunningham did last year, for example. This conversation looks different if He's a top 15 player in the league and we'll see if he can make.
- [73:03]
Brian Windhorst
But what happened.
- [73:04]
Tim Bontemps
What happened before Cade Cunningham had his big breakout season? They went out and surrounded them with shooting.
- [73:10]
Ryan Reynolds
Yes. And Toronto has only not added shooting to this team.
- [73:14]
Tim Bontemps
Yeah, they. They put him in a situation where he had a chance to succeed. And I don't think that's happened with Scotty Barnes.
- [73:21]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah.
- [73:22]
Brian Windhorst
All right.
- [73:23]
Tim Bontemps
The final tier.
- [73:24]
Brian Windhorst
I didn't see this when I read the story.
- [73:26]
Tim Bontemps
You got to keep scrolling, I guess.
- [73:28]
Brian Windhorst
So all in on 2024, by the way, it's 2025.
- [73:35]
Tim Bontemps
Another way to put this when all in goes wrong.
- [73:39]
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah. Phoenix Suns obviously in this tier. You know, we've talked a lot about the Suns and their decision making. You know, I think as McMahon just said it very well, when all in goes wrong. The Suns are a good example of that. You know, from the Bradley Beal buyout to the failed Kevin Durant trade to, I mean, you could even argue maybe long down the road, the Devin Booker extension. You know, they're. Yeah, it's. It's going to be a rough few years ahead in Phoenix, most likely.
- [74:07]
Brian Windhorst
Well, their fans would say that Brian Gregory did a good job of bringing in, you know, size and focusing on defense and that, you know, they were really able to improve their depth and, you know, acquiring the lottery pick. You know, come on, Malu. Watch, you know, gives them something they haven't had in a while, which is a young player to build around. You know, they would probably push.
- [74:33]
Tim Bontemps
Their front office would say this. Well, you know what I think?
- [74:37]
Brian Windhorst
I guess that's a fair point.
- [74:38]
Tim Bontemps
Their fans would say, hey, thank goodness that Ishpia slash beer prices.
- [74:46]
Ryan Reynolds
They turn Kevin Durant into Jalen Green. I would say that that would be my rejection.
- [74:50]
Brian Windhorst
Well, you got. No, hold on now. I'm gonna call you on that. You gotta see what value watch becomes.
- [74:54]
Tim Bontemps
Dylan Brooks is a solid role player.
- [74:57]
Ryan Reynolds
Yes. No, I agree. They got some. But I, I'm just saying, like, I don't think the trade was a mistake, but that trade. No, right, that trade, the last trade. I'm just, I'm just saying though, that that is the situation that the Suns put themselves in where the trade they could make was to get what you could charitably call a very distressed asset.
- [75:20]
Tim Bontemps
Oh yeah.
- [75:21]
Ryan Reynolds
Solid role player and the 10th pick in the draft for Kevin Durant.
- [75:25]
Tim Bontemps
Well the simple fact of the matter is this. The Rockets gave you back your own pick and you and they still have two in their pocket. Yes. So and like when we had Kevin Durant.
- [75:38]
Ryan Reynolds
Yes.
- [75:39]
Tim Bontemps
And when we're right and when we're discussing like the Grizzlies, you bring up the 26 sons pick. You know like having sons picks is one of the most valuable assets for multiple teams around the league.
- [75:54]
Ryan Reynolds
So and even, even too like, like for example the, like the, the Mark Williams trade that Phoenix made Mark Williams an interesting young player like we talked about in February, flawed player both from a game game style play and from an injury standpoint. And they don't have very many first round picks to trade and they traded two of them to get them after they drafted. Come on.
- [76:22]
Brian Windhorst
One of them was a 29th pick in this draft.
- [76:23]
Ryan Reynolds
But yes, I'm just saying but listen they drafted the, the hornets got Liam McNeely with that pick who was going into the draft, the top 20 pick and is a guy who has could be a really good shooter long term which like these guys could use like I just again like from even from some of their asset management stuff like that. Like you draft the center at 10, you trade two first round picks of your very limited pool of assets for another center five minutes later.
- [76:50]
Tim Bontemps
Well and, and how did, how did they get, how did they get those picks that they gave up for Mark Williams?
- [76:57]
Ryan Reynolds
Right. Doing the trading 3 trading 43 end of the first round draft picks for an unprotected future first round pick that Justin Zanuck from the Jazz when he made the trade openly said was the best asset in the league when they made the trade. And I, I think it's hard to, I mean I think the, the trade, the pick the Hawks got a few months later might have surpassed it. But there are not many assets in the league with more value than that future Suns first that Utah got in exchange for three picks that are I'd say probably 80 to 90% likely to be 25 or later in the draft.
- [77:34]
Brian Windhorst
All right, well those, that completes the tiers. I just picture your content. You're a Suns fan. You're scrolling through saying oh is this, is this a tier my team's going to be in? Oh maybe is this a team There.
- [77:49]
Ryan Reynolds
Is a son and out there that's reading content about the NBA in August. I would suggest to them to go have a nice drink and find a pool and probably leave the state of Arizona where it's 5,000 degrees right now and chill.
- [78:04]
Brian Windhorst
Not in the north. In the north. There's some nice parts of northern Arizona. All right, thank you very much to Jackson, who's got to edit through all this dreck. Thank you to McMahon and Bontemp. Thank you to you again for sticking with us through August. If you are with us this far into this podcast at this date on the calendar, we love you. We couldn't do it without you and we will talk to you next week.
- [78:28]
Tim Bontemps
Nobody provides Sunshine like the USWB. Adios amigos.
- [78:50]
Brian Windhorst
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- [79:05]
Ryan Reynolds
Tab we're on Venue mode, available on the Tab app in operating Tab venues, agencies and selected race courses. You win some, you lose more. For free and confidential support, Visit gamblinghelponline.org au.