Broadway Breakdown – 2023 Tony Predictions (Part 1)

Host: Matt Koplik

Guests: Will and Rachel Anderson (“The Theater Lovers”)

Air Date: March 30, 2023

Episode Overview

In this lively, expletive-laden, and deeply nerdy episode, host Matt Koplik—joined by theater meme royalty The Theater Lovers (Will and Rachel Anderson)—dives headfirst into Tony Award prediction mayhem. Together, they break down the Broadway season’s major contenders, dissect political undercurrents, debate specific performances, and (of course) offer the kind of in-depth, high-energy discussion that only true theater obsessives can provide. Listeners get insight into the sometimes-opaque Tony nominating process, a candid assessment of likely nominees in key categories, and memorable banter filled with inside jokes, hot takes, and plenty of laughs.

Note: Timestamps are formatted as [MM:SS], but due to the meandering nature of the episode, segments blend into one another—major sections and their broad timing are indicated for ease of navigation.

Major Discussion Points & Key Insights

1. The Tony Awards: Art, Politics, and Process

[04:07]–[06:52]

• Predictions as Tradition:
  Both Matt and his guests see Tony predictions as “theater March Madness”—a fun, semi-serious annual ritual.

  • “It's one of the great traditions of art competition.” – Will [02:14]

• How Nominations Happen:
  Matt demystifies the nominating process:

  • No secret cabal, but rather 40 nominators voting independently, with group discussions only about eligibility or classification.
  • Occasional “emergency meetings” occur for unusual cases (e.g., “Angels in America” score eligibility in 2018).

• Politics vs. Taste:
  The group highlights that while personal taste matters, strategic thinking and industry politics are very real.

  • “You have to think about what it is that really impacted you that you liked a lot and then be a little more strategic...was it well received? Politics? Absolutely.” – Matt [01:54]/[04:05]

2. Design Categories: Sound, Scenic, Lighting, Costumes

Key Segment: [07:07]–[13:24]

• Sound Design of a Play:

  • Major locks for nomination: “Life of Pi” and “A Christmas Carol”.
  • “Life of Pi” praised for its cinematic, immersive score, and overall technical prowess—dubbed a likely nominee across categories: scenic, lighting, sound, direction, and potentially score.
    • "Life of Pi would be my best guess just based on what I know to be opening and what we've seen so far." – Will [08:26]
  • Discussion on the technical achievements and inventive theater design, such as puppetry and integrated soundscapes.

• Costume, Scenic, Lighting:

  • “Life of Pi” and “A Christmas Carol” expected to show up across the board.
  • Puppet work in “Life of Pi” could angle toward a special Tony.

3. Best Score: Musicals and Plays in the Mix

Key Segment: [13:24]–[22:11]

• Primary Contenders:

  • Locks: “Kimberly Akimbo,” “Some Like It Hot,” “Shucked.”
  • “Life of Pi” (as a play with a significant score) could sneak in.
  • KPOP a dark horse, especially with the timely album drop—“KPOP all the way. That would be such a beautiful thing for them to get nominated.” – Rachel [19:08]

• Wildcard Shows:

  • “Bad Cinderella,” “KPOP,” and “Almost Famous” debated for final slots.
  • “KPOP”’s genre authenticity and vocal arrangements (“tight like a tiger” [21:25]) cited as assets.

• Quote:
  “Listening to [the ‘KPOP’ score] separately, it's very impressive how authentic it does sound of the genre.” – Matt [20:46]

4. Leading Actress in a Musical: The Fiesty Five (or Six)

Key Segment: [25:06]–[42:19]

• Super-Locks:

  • Victoria Clark (“Kimberly Akimbo”)
  • Annaleigh Ashford (“Sweeney Todd”)
  • Micaela Diamond (“Parade”)

• On the Bubble:

  • Sara Bareilles (“Into the Woods”)—star power may outweigh show’s closure.
  • Phillipa Soo (“Camelot”)—performance well received, but mixed buzz about show.

• Newcomers with Buzz:

  • Anna Uzele (“New York, New York”) discussed as a possible surprise, depending on how the show shapes up.

• Why Some Don’t Make It:

  • “Some Like It Hot”’s Adrianna Hicks: role and performance seen as underwritten and less memorable than supporting players.

• Memorable Quote:
  “My pick to win is Victoria Clark...by a lot.” – Rachel [38:06]

5. Choreography: A Case of Most vs. Best

Key Segment: [46:31]–[53:58]

• Front-Runners:

  • If eligible, “Dancin’” is a lock—otherwise, Susan Stroman (“New York, New York”) and Casey Nicholaw (“Some Like It Hot”).
  • “Life of Pi” praised for intricate movement and puppetry—likely a nominee.

• Observations:

  • The Tonys often reward “most choreography,” but unique movement (like coordinated puppetry) can break through.
  • Noted that modern, seamless integration of dance and movement (“not just Newsies-level flips”) is gaining recognition.

• Quote:
  “If it is eligible [‘Dancin’], that's my front runner because it is extremely well done. As the title says, that's what it's all about.” – Rachel [47:10]

6. Leading Actor in a Musical: A Stacked, Male-Light Category

Key Segment: [56:12]–[65:52]

• Predicted Nominees:

  • Ben Platt (“Parade”)
  • Josh Groban (“Sweeney Todd”)
  • Jay Harrison Ghee (“Some Like It Hot”)
  • Christian Borle (“Some Like It Hot”)—but possibly vulnerable
  • Andrew Burnap (“Camelot”)
  • Colton Ryan (“New York, New York”) seen as a likely spoiler based on strong role and performance

• Observations:

  • Not many musicals have a classic leading man this season.
  • Christian Borle and other “vulnerable” picks could be nudged out by more dynamic performances.

7. Featured Actor in a Musical: Deepest Bench of the Season

Key Segment: [69:20]–[78:45]

• Prime Suspects:

  • Jordan Donica (“Camelot”)
  • Justin Cooley (“Kimberly Akimbo”)
  • Gaten Matarazzo (“Sweeney Todd”)
  • Kevin Del Aguila (“Some Like It Hot”)
  • Alex Joseph Grayson (“Parade”)
  • Stark Sands (“& Juliet”)
  • Alex Newell (“Shucked”), depending on which category they choose

• Category Could Expand:
  Given category strength, could go to six nominees.

8. Featured Actress in a Musical: Bonnie Milligan and the Comedic Standouts

Key Segment: [78:45]–[83:59]

• Bonnie Milligan (“Kimberly Akimbo”) seen as the favorite.

  • “If you're going up against Bonnie Milligan, I say good luck.” – Rachel [78:45]

• Notable Contenders:

  • Ali Mauzey (“Kimberly Akimbo”)
  • Natasha Yvette Williams (“Some Like It Hot”)
  • Betsy Wolfe & Melanie La Barrie (“& Juliet”)
  • Ruthie Ann Miles (“Sweeney Todd”)
  • Carolee Carmello (“Bad Cinderella”)—possible but less likely

• General Vibe:

  • Strength in comedic performances this season; deadpan delivery highly prized.
  • “She plays her very deadpan and low key, which I think is brilliant... it actually makes the comedy better.” – Matt [79:58]

9. Play Categories: Less Seen, Still Hotly Debated

Key Segment: [85:07]–[91:18]

• Leading Actor in a Play:

  • Wendell Pierce (“Death of a Salesman”)—likely winner
  • Jefferson Mays (“A Christmas Carol”)
  • Sean Hayes (“Good Night, Oscar”)—big out-of-town buzz
  • Corey Hawkins (“Topdog/Underdog”)
  • Stephen McKinley Henderson (“Between Riverside and Crazy”)

• Leading Actress in a Play:

  • Audra McDonald
  • Jessica Chastain (“A Doll’s House”)
  • Jodie Comer
  • Laura Linney
  • Some debate over the fifth spot, depending on eligibility and strength of other productions.

• Featured Actress in a Play:

  • Section includes speculation on up-and-comers from “The Thanksgiving Play,” “Peter Pan Goes Wrong,” and “Ain’t No Mo.”

10. Productions, Direction, and Nominations “Rules”

Key Segment: [97:00]–[110:45]

• Revival of a Musical Field:

  • Major players: “Camelot,” “Sweeney Todd,” “Parade,” “Into the Woods”

• Direction of a Musical:

  • Strongest contenders: Jessica Stone (“Kimberly Akimbo”), Michael Arden (“Parade”), Susan Stroman (“New York, New York”), Thomas Kail (“Sweeney Todd”), and Bart Sher (“Camelot”) or Casey Nicholaw (“Some Like It Hot”).
  • Noted history: It's rare for a Best Musical winner not to be nominated for Best Book; this “rule” used to gauge shows’ chances.

• Favorite Insight:

  • “There has never been a Best Musical winner that didn't get nominated for book if they were eligible.” – Matt [109:07]
  • Useful metric for future Tony predictions.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Matt’s role as podcast “opinion leader:”

  • “I am your host, Matt Koplik, the least famous and most opinionated of all the Broadway podcast hosts.” [01:18]

• On authentic vocal arrangements:

  • "If we're talking, like, vocal arrangements that are tight like a tiger, it is those two (Kimberly Akimbo and KPOP)." – Matt [21:25]

• On leading actress predictions:

  • “My pick to win is Victoria Clark… by a lot.” – Rachel [38:06]

• Meta-meme moments:

  • Matt to The Theater Lovers: “I love all the things you post. I think everything you post is directly for me. Thank you so much.” [67:30]

• On Tony nomination politics:

  • “One thing about running a meme account is, like, we’re very used to [pushback from fandom].” – Rachel [104:04]

• Feminism running gag:

  • Rachel (joking): “As a new feminist, I just found out about this thing called feminism from you. Thank you so much.” [59:15]

Category Rundowns (Timestamps Approximate)

| Segment | Categories/Titles Discussed | Notes | |-----------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | [07:07]–[13:24] | Sound/Scenic/Lighting/Costume (Plays) | “Life of Pi,” “Christmas Carol” | | [13:24]–[22:11] | Best Score | “Kimberly Akimbo,” “Some Like It Hot,” “Shucked,” “Life of Pi,” “KPOP,” “Bad Cinderella,” “Almost Famous”| | [25:06]–[42:19] | Leading Actress in a Musical | Clark, Ashford, Diamond, Bareilles, Soo, Uzele (NY, NY) | | [46:31]–[53:58] | Choreography | “New York, New York,” “Some Like It Hot,” “Life of Pi” | | [56:12]–[65:52] | Leading Actor in a Musical | Platt, Groban, Ghee, Borle, Burnap, Ryan | | [69:20]–[78:45] | Featured Actor in a Musical | Donica, Cooley, Matarazzo, Del Aguila, Grayson, Sands, Newell | | [78:45]–[83:59] | Featured Actress in a Musical | Milligan, Mauzey, Williams, Wolfe, La Barrie, Miles, Carmello | | [85:07]–[91:18] | Leading Actor/Actress in a Play | Pierce, Mays, Hayes, Hawkins, Henderson, Chastain, McDonald, Linney, Comer | | [97:00]–[110:45] | Direction, Book, Revival, Overall Nominations “Rules” | “Kimberly Akimbo,” “Parade,” “New York, New York,” “Sweeney Todd,” “Camelot,” “& Juliet,” “Into the Woods”|

In Closing

The episode is a joyful, sometimes chaotic survey of the 2022–2023 Broadway season, filled with candid, deeply informed analysis, and plenty of personality. The group balances sharp industry insight with comedic asides, running gags (especially around “new feminist” Rachel), and a shared love of the art form.

For Broadway fans and Tony-watchers, this is a goldmine of perspective, opinion, and essential handicapping for awards season.

The Theater Lovers on Socials

• Instagram & TikTok: @the_theater_lovers
• Twitter: @theater_lovers

Matt Koplik

• Instagram: @mattkoplik

Closing sentiment:

“Have a great rest of your week, everybody. Bye.” – Matt [112:38]