Broadway Breakdown – 2023 Tony Predictions (Part 3): Reading YOUR Predictions!

Host: Matt Koplik
Date: April 20, 2023

Overview

In this solo episode of Broadway Breakdown, Matt Koplik puts his signature passionate, witty, and no-BS style to good use, tackling Tony Awards predictions submitted anonymously by listeners via Instagram. With nominees soon to be announced, Matt reads and reacts blind to a wide array of takes—from the astute and nuanced to the completely off-topic—offering deep analysis, Broadway insider tidbits, and the occasional well-placed F-bomb. This episode is a must-listen for theatre fans who want real talk on what might happen at the 2023 Tonys.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. General State of the 2023 Tony Race

• This Season’s Complexity: Many acting categories are open, with “two or three locks” but several vulnerable slots. (1:09:50)
• Nomination Surprises: Technical/trade categories (book, choreography, design) have wild cards because of the spread of new musicals—many of which Matt finds lackluster or have “rough books.” (00:50)

2. Listener Predictions & Matt’s Hot Takes

A. A Beautiful Noise Might Overperform (01:14)

• On its chances: “Will Swenson is not helped because of it, neither is Robin Herder...Book is a little more up for grabs and choreography is a bit up for grabs.”
• Realistic expectations: Matt sees at most 4 nominations possible; acting nods are unlikely due to strong competition.

B. Jukebox Musical Backlash? Not Likely (05:42)

• Matt debunks the theory that road voters only give Tonys to shows that sell on tour: “This tinfoil hat theory really began with Avenue Q...but the big hit of the season doesn’t always end up winning.” (07:39)
• Judges that the supposed “backlash to jukebox shows” is an exaggerated narrative; most never have that much love from voters to begin with.

C. On ‘& Juliet’ & Other Jukebox Musicals (07:55)

• Listener predicts “& Juliet won’t win a single award.” Matt agrees it’s plausible, given how Tony voters generally operate, with a few notable exceptions.

D. Opening the Tonys with Phantom?

• Straight-up debunked: “Why would they do that? That has nothing to do with anything.” (09:30)
• However, Matt expects an acknowledgement or respectful montage since it’s the year Phantom of the Opera closed after its historic run.

E. Toughest Category: Best Musical or Best Revival (10:24)

• Best Musical: “Kimberly Akimbo, & Juliet, Shucked, and Some Like It Hot are absolute locks. I do think New York, New York will get the fifth slot.”
• Winner prediction: “I think it is going to be Kimberly Akimbo...I don’t think that’s going to be a super tough one.” (11:18)
• Best Revival: “Between Parade and Sweeney Todd. Into the Woods is closed...no musical revival that has closed before the Tonys has won.” (15:41)
• Parade as his personal favorite, but Sweeney Todd is the competition.

F. Kimberly Akimbo: Sweep Incoming? (23:56)

• “Nothing is really ever a lock...but Kimberly is absolutely the frontrunner for musical.”
• “I think it’s going to get maybe four or five wins and a good chunk of nominations.”
• “Don’t let the number of nominations indicate how well it will do.”

G. Cost of Living – Can It Break In? (25:23)

• Pulitzer pedigree usually helps, but Broadway transfer didn’t have the same level of buzz as Off-Broadway. Features are likely for Katie Sullivan and Sharon D. Clark; direction less so.

H. Featured Categories: So Many Wildcards (01:11:00)

• Musical, Featured Actress: “Bonnie Milligan is our number one lock...after that, truly anyone’s guess.” (01:12:57)
• Musical, Featured Actor: “Alex Newell, Justin Cooley—both total locks. After that, Kevin [Cahoon] for Some Like It Hot...maybe Gaten [Matarazzo] for Sweeney.”

I. Breakdown of Leading Actor/Actress Races

• Leading Actress (Musical): “Victoria Clark—numero uno with Kimberly Akimbo...after her, Michaela Diamond in Parade, and Annaleigh Ashford in Sweeney Todd. Those three, full-blown locks.” (01:10:54)
• Leading Actor (Musical): “Jay Harrison Gee, Ben Platt, and Josh Groban...I do still think Christian Borle and Andrew Burnap are major contenders.”

3. Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On how Tony voters work:
  “The Tonys definitely are willing to put their votes behind the show that needs it a bit more.” (07:58)

• On award show superstitions:
  “No musical revival that has closed before the Tonys has won. Just remember that.” (15:41)

• On recognizing performances in bio-musicals:
  "The Tonys are no different than the Oscars in that respect...whenever someone's playing a real person." (01:45:35)

• On nominations not equaling wins:
  "Mean Girls was one of the biggest nominees of 2018 and walked away completely empty handed." (13:22)

• On the ongoing “Should Lea Michele get a Tony” discourse:
  “No, they could not. That's just not going to happen. Get that out of your brain.” (01:36:06)

• On “New York, New York”:
  "I did not find New York, New York an abomination. I just thought it was dull, dull beyond belief." (01:58:30)

• Boldest listener submission:
  "Best supporting actor in a play: Fish #3 in Life of Pi. Close contender: Butterfly12. Also found singular Giraffe head's performance quite affecting." — Matt’s reaction: "You fucking bitch. You're fun. You're so much fun." (02:16:18)

4. Lightning Round – Noteworthy Listener Questions and Matt’s Reactions

• Off-topic entries (breakfast, relationship status, red flags) — all dismissed with humor and sass, e.g.:
  "What does that have to do with the Tony Awards? You know what I had for breakfast? I had a handful of dry cereal. Moving the fuck on y'all." (01:48:16)
  "Bitch, what the fuck does that have to do with the Tony Awards?" (02:31:00)

• Personal Favorite Hope:
  "Biggest hope, lots of love for Cost of Living—for best play, direction, Katie and Greg—because the intimacy coordination was stunning." (24:42)

5. Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |----------------------------------------------------|----------------| | A Beautiful Noise prediction, Book/Choreo analysis | 01:14–05:42 | | Jukebox/road voters/mythbusting | 05:42–08:55 | | Best Musical & Best Revival predictions | 10:24–16:46 | | Kimberly Akimbo sweeps, nomination math | 23:56–27:10 | | Cost of Living/Pulitzer play discussion | 25:23–29:32 | | Category overviews (Leads, Featured) | 01:09:50–01:17:50 | | Bio-musical acting nominations | 01:45:35–01:48:00 | | “New York, New York” deep-dive | 01:58:30–02:09:45 | | Iconic animal puppet joke (Life of Pi) | 02:16:18 | | Personal/Off-topic Q&A | 01:48:16, 02:31:00 |

6. Insights, Patterns, and Industry Tea

• Technical nominations in design, orchestration, and choreography may outpace acting nods for several shows.
• There’s skepticism around “the buzz” and nomination totals as indicators of wins—history repeatedly upends predictions.
• “Closed show” curse for musical revivals and acting winners remains strong.
• Matt’s candor extends to explaining the voting process, including myth-busting about the influence of certain voter blocs.
• Next episode will be the “final, final, final predictions” ahead of Tony nomination announcements.

7. Closing Review & Listener Appreciation

Matt reads a glowing 5-star Apple Podcast review:

“The poignant and ever so catty tone is an absolute delight… You probably won’t admit to others you’re listening to this guilty pleasure. They just wouldn’t understand.” (02:34:32)

He notes the importance of listener involvement:

“You guys are so good at [writing reviews] and they bring me such joy. You don’t have to write a review if you don’t want to, but if you could give five stars, that’d be great… Thank you for listening. I hope you’ve enjoyed this one.”

Tone and Language

• Signature mix of deep-dive analysis, bitchy wit, industry insight, and expletive-laden honesty.
• Matt frequently references listener input with both appreciation and playful shade.

Summary: For Those Who Haven’t Listened

This episode is a fast-moving, frank, and frequently hilarious rundown of the wild, unpredictable Tony season ahead. Matt’s predictive skills are grounded in deep industry knowledge, but he never takes himself—or the noms—too seriously. If you want to understand who’s got heat, who’s got hype, and why Broadway obsessives are both alarmed and excited for nomination morning, this is essential, entertaining listening.

Next up: Matt promises a “final, final, final” round of predictions before Tony noms drop. Get your spreadsheets—and your hot takes—ready!