Broadway Breakdown Podcast

Episode: 2024 Tony Awards: Predicting the Winners

Host: Matt Koplik
Guests: Will & Rachel Anderson ("The Theater Lovers")
Date: May 30, 2024

Overview

This episode of Broadway Breakdown features host Matt Koplik and recurring guests The Theater Lovers (Will and Rachel Anderson) diving deep into their predictions for the 2024 Tony Awards. With characteristic wit, banter, and a bit of raunch, the trio navigate every major category, weighing critical response, industry buzz, personal tastes, historical context, and Broadway tea to forecast the likely outcome—sometimes dissenting, always opinionated.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

Opening & Season Context

• None of the three claim to have seen every single show, paralleling many Tony voters (02:05).
  • Rachel: “This makes us as qualified as a lot of the Tony voters this season.”
• They note unique rule changes post-COVID regarding voter requirements (02:13).
  • Matt: “If you want to win that Tony, you gotta be in the theater for them to see you.”

Performance Categories

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

Nominees: Brody Grant (The Outsiders), Jonathan Groff (Merrily We Roll Along), Dorian Harewood (The Notebook), Brian d'Arcy James (Days of Wine and Roses), Eddie Redmayne (Cabaret)
Discussion:

• General consensus: Groff is the favorite, with James and Redmayne also plausible.
• Matt: “Jonathan pretty much has this locked down.” (05:05)
• Rachel: "Who else could play someone that unlikable, that charismatically?" (06:07)

Memorable Moment:

• Raucous discussion likening choices to "kiss, marry, kill" among the nominees (05:05-05:09).

Best Leading Actor in a Play

Nominees: William Jackson Harper (Uncle Vanya), Leslie Odom Jr. (Purlie Victorious), Liev Schreiber (Doubt), Jeremy Strong (An Enemy of the People), Michael Stuhlbarg (Patriots)
Discussion:

• Toss-up between Leslie Odom Jr. and Jeremy Strong.
• Strong momentum for Jeremy because the show is running and hitting financially; Leslie's PBS pro-shot may boost visibility (10:41-11:48).
• Rachel: “Year of that!” — noting many "solid, but not slam-dunk" categories (11:23).

Best Leading Actress in a Play

Nominees: Betsy Aidem, Jessica Lange, Rachel McAdams, Sarah Paulson, Amy Ryan
Discussion:

• Sarah Paulson (“Appropriate”) is the consensus favorite, with Rachel McAdams ("Mary Jane") a strong personal pick for Matt.
• Will: “She just simmered the entire time. And you’re like, this pot is going to boil over and everyone is going to get scalded.” (28:49)

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

Nominees: Eden Espinosa (Lempicka), Maleah Joy Moon (Hell's Kitchen), Kelli O'Hara (Days of Wine and Roses), Maryann Plunkett (The Notebook), Gayle Rankin (Cabaret)
Discussion:

• Personal: Rachel deeply affected by Plunkett’s portrayal of Alzheimer's.
• Predictive: Kelli O’Hara has a chance (but her show is closed), Malaya Joy Moon as the emerging frontrunner if the award follows Broadway’s current star-power and ongoing hits (35:15-35:54).
• Matt: “This is a performance that fucking sticks with you.” (31:00)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Nominees: Roger Bart, Joshua Boone, Brandon Victor Dixon, Sky Lakota-Lynch, Daniel Radcliffe, Steven Skybell
Bullet: Daniel Radcliffe (“Merrily”) considered a “lock,” praised for finding new colors in a familiar role (41:38-41:56).

• Will: “He just finds beautiful stuff in that role…” (41:31)

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Nominees: Shoshana Bean, Amber Iman, Nikki M. James, Krysta Rodriguez, Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Keisha Lewis, Lindsay Mendez, Bebe Neuwirth
Shortlist: Keisha Lewis (Hell’s Kitchen), Lindsay Mendez (Merrily), Bebe Neuwirth (Cabaret) (48:08)

• Rachel laments Joy Woods’ snub.
• Matt: “If Hell’s Kitchen were to win musical, she [Keisha] will win. ... I see a Jersey Boys narrative.” (52:29)
• BB Neuwirth’s “grand dame” status acknowledged and analyzed.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Nominees: Quincy Tyler Bernstine, Juliana Canfield, Celia Keenan-Bolger, Sarah Pidgeon, Kara Young
Debate: Toss-up between Kara Young (Purlie) and Sarah Pidgeon (Stereophonic).

• Stellar performances and supporting roles discussed in depth, with specific praise for Pidgeon's nuanced, gaslighted character and Kara Young’s “masterclass” contract scene (56:32-61:18).

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nominees: Stereophonic trio (Will Brill, Eli Gelb, Tom Pecinka), Jim Parsons, Corey Stoll
Insight:

• Matt predicts category could split between the Stereophonic actors but leans “Corey for now,” with Will Brill as personal pick.

Creative & Design Categories

Best Original Score

• Nominees: Days of Wine and Roses, Here Lies Love, Stereophonic, Suffs, The Outsiders
• Shortlist: Stereophonic vs. Suffs (14:45)
• Matt and Will rhapsodize on Stereophonic’s album, but point out Suffs is the most “musical theater” and might sweep if it wins musical (15:17, 19:50)
• Quote: “I think Stereophonic is the nominee overall that is the most successful doing what it’s doing.” (19:52)
• Tangents about Tony eligibility, Here Lies Love controversy (16:18–22:58).

Best Book of a Musical

• Consensus: “Suffs” is the likely winner, with “Hell’s Kitchen’s” book described by Matt as “objectively bad,” and the presence of narrators in so many current musicals bemoaned (91:50–95:15).

Best Orchestrations

• Contenders: Illinois (Timo Andres), Stereophonic, Outsiders, Hell’s Kitchen, Merrily
• Split predictions: Will/Rachel lean Illinois or Merrily; Matt predicts Stereophonic could take both orchestrations and score, lauding its “meta” approach to arrangements (67:54).
• Great banter about sub-par orchestras and xylophone usage: “We need more orchestras with xylophones. There, I said it.” (71:05)

Best Choreography

• Consensus: Justin Peck’s “Illinois” is the runaway pick, both for quality and "stylistic necessity" (88:03).
• Shoutout to Outsiders’ "Rumble" as the most exciting Act II scene of the season for Matt.

Direction

• Musical: Maria Friedman (Merrily) should win, but Matt gives their personal pick to Danya Taymor (The Outsiders), calling out Friedman's polarizing staging choices (99:58-100:49).
• Play: Daniel Aukin (Stereophonic) is the clear favorite, but everyone agrees the whole category is “all pros, no cons” (102:34).

Design

• Costume Design (Play): Stereophonic potentially wins over flashy "period" rivals; Jaja’s African Hair Braiding gets kudos for making present-day dress Tony-worthy and spectacular wigs (37:59).
• Scenic Design (Musical): Cabaret favored for immersive transformation, though Here Lies Love would have won if still running (74:44–77:14).
• Scenic Design (Play): “Appropriate” likely to win thanks to its transformative final moments.
• Lighting (Musical): Cabaret narrowly picked over The Outsiders and Illinois (104:07).
• Lighting (Play): Toss-up between Stereophonic and Appropriate, with the latter chosen in the moment.
• Sound Design (Play): Stereophonic a lock (“Written to win this category”), but “Mary Jane” praised for subtle use.
• Sound Design (Musical): Not covered in detail.
• Banter: “Huge year for bugs”—cicadas in Appropriate, butterflies in Illinois, cockroaches in Mother Play (117:14-117:36).

Best Play, Best Musical, & Revivals

Best Play

• Favorite: Stereophonic. All agree it’s a juggernaut, but they also give shoutouts to Jaja’s African Hair Braiding and Prayer for the French Republic (126:47).

Best Musical

• Nominees: Hell’s Kitchen, Illinois, The Outsiders, Suffs, Water for Elephants
• Panel agrees it’s a 3-way race: Hell’s Kitchen, The Outsiders, and Suffs.
• Illinois praised for artistry but dismissed due to being a dance show, a limited run, and a Broadway “odd duck.”
• Matt: “I think right now I’m saying Suffs, but I have this sinking suspicion it could be Hell’s Kitchen because Alicia Keys is campaigning so hard.” (130:41-131:42)

Revivals

• Musical: Merrily We Roll Along is a "slam dunk."
• Play: Appropriate—again, strong category with no bad contender.

Broader Cultural & Industry Commentary

• Long digression on “problematic” versus “uncomfortable” shows, cancel culture, and how political/social issues bleed into theater discourse (23:57–25:46).
• Broadway job-loss narratives & Here Lies Love’s live band controversy dissected (21:27 onward).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Matt: “This is a performance that fucking sticks with you.” (on Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook, 31:00)
• Rachel: “Who else could play someone that unlikable, that charismatically?” (on Groff, 06:07)
• Will: “He just finds beautiful stuff in that role…” (on Radcliffe, 41:31)
• Matt: “If you want to win that Tony, you gotta be in the theater for them to see you.” (03:10)
• Rachel about reviewing categories: “I don’t know where to look!” (47:50)
• Matt on Diet Tony Voters: “No one buys that your deep dives are so deep and so divey on Instagram that there’s no way you just heard of it.” (01:13)
• Matt on internet outrage: “Is it problematic, or are you just uncomfortable?” (24:28)
• Will: “Huge year for bugs!” (after listing cicadas, butterflies, cockroaches, and the beetle that took Tyne Daly out of Doubt, 117:36-117:46)
• Rachel, on Broadway’s “girls supporting girls” moment in Featured Actress: “If Joy Woods has no fans, I’m dead.” (49:14)
• Matt: “Don’t live the life you want, live the life you admire. And that’s the life I admire. I want to be famous for my opinions on other people's penises.” (146:50)

Pacing & Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Categories Discussed | |------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | 03:46 | Leading Actor in a Musical | | 09:59 | Leading Actor in a Play | | 14:45 | Best Original Score & Tony Rule Tangents | | 27:21 | Leading Actress in a Play | | 29:47 | Leading Actress in a Musical | | 41:45 | Featured Actor in a Musical | | 47:16 | Featured Actress in a Musical | | 56:32 | Featured Actress in a Play | | 61:33 | Discussion on Tony Voting Timelines | | 63:09 | Best Orchestrations | | 74:24 | Scenic Design (Musical) | | 77:14 | Scenic Design (Play) | | 84:52 | Featured Actor in a Play | | 87:06 | Choreography | | 91:49 | Book of a Musical | | 99:31 | Direction of a Musical | | 102:21 | Direction of a Play | | 104:11 | Lighting Design (Musical) | | 108:16 | Lighting Design (Play) | | 114:37 | Sound Design (Play) | | 118:47 | Musical/Play Revival, Best Play, Best Musical | | 127:56 | Closing Thoughts, Recap, and Listener Reviews |

Tone and Chemistry

• Banter is lively, nerdy, and unscripted—peppered with industry in-jokes, self-deprecation, and a playground for tangents and running gags. Foul-mouthed affection rules: “This is why I had you guys on, because you were my little tennis balls I could just hit against the wall with my racket.” (135:34)
• Frequent digressions: from Kazoos in Funny Girl to the perils of narrators, from Pete Davidson urban legends to elegant complaints about modern costume snubs.

Final Takeaways

• The likely big winners: Merrily We Roll Along (revival categories, Groff, Radcliffe, Friedman), Stereophonic (play, creative/design), potential for Suffs or Hell’s Kitchen in Best Musical depending on final weeks of industry buzz and voting blocks.
• Expect Illinois to take choreography, and at least one design/arrangements category, but not to upset for Best Musical.
• The panel's overall confidence is high in some places, but they admit the 2024 Tonys are especially fragmented—with more up-for-grabs categories than usual and notable unpredictability in Best Musical.
• Underlying message: “Don’t mistake discomfort for actual problematics.” Theater is meant to provoke and unsettle, and the season has plenty to chew on.

Where to Find the Theater Lovers

• Instagram: @theater_lovers
• TikTok: @theater_lovers
• Will: “Just making memes and chilling.”

Closing Diva: Pearl Bailey, by swift audience request.

Next episode: After a London break—final Tony predictions.