Broadway Breakdown: 2024 Tony Predictions (Part 2): PRE- Eligibility Rulings!!

Host: Matt Koplik
Guest: David Lynch (Broadway producer)
Release Date: April 25, 2024

Episode Overview

In this special “pre-eligibility rulings” episode, host Matt Koplik and first-time guest, Broadway producer David Lynch, deliver a fiery, ultra-informed, and hilariously candid round-up of their 2024 Tony Award predictions. Recorded just before the Tony eligibility cutoff, they debate which shows and performers might get the nods in key and technical categories, how late-in-the-season opening dates and mixed reviews might shake things up, and reflect on how both critical and commercial factors play into Tony nominator psychology. True to the podcast's style, the duo are unfiltered, potty-mouthed, and wickedly knowledgeable as they go long and deep on Broadway’s most competitive season in years.

Major Themes and Episode Flow

• The Changing Broadway Landscape (02:00–05:30):
  Matt and David contextualize how this year’s Broadway season — with a record glut of late April openings and shifting reviews and grosses — creates maximum unpredictability for Tony nominators.
• The Power of Reviews vs. Commercial Success (03:00–08:30):
  Shows like MAMMA MIA! and & JULIET show that positive reviews can give nominators “permission” to honor fun or financially successful shows. Yet commercial flops can still get artistic respect, and vice versa.

Notable Moments, Quotes & Timestamp Highlights

1. Best Musical Predictions [04:50–15:00]

Their Projected Nominee List:

• The Outsiders
• The Notebook
• Water for Elephants
• Illinois
• Suffs

Notable exchange:
Matt: “There's not a clear front runner for Best Musical... for the first time since probably the Dear Evan Hansen year.” (06:46)

Hot Takes & Outliers:

• Days of Wine and Roses, Here Lies Love, and Heart of Rock and Roll could be spoilers—depending on reviews and Tony voter sentiment.
• Hell’s Kitchen’s eligibility will depend greatly on the critical response post-opening.
• Shows like Back to the Future and Gatsby are dark horses due to commercial appeal despite critical skepticism.

David: “In the post-pandemic era, there’s been a rally even for shows getting people back to the theater, even if artistically they aren’t everything.” (13:47)

2. Deep Dive into Technical Categories (Design, Sound, Lighting) [17:12–44:00]

Sound and Lighting – Plays

• Stereophonic is deemed the technical/design leader and front-runner in sound and lighting.
• Both feel Patriots, Enemy of the People, Appropriate, and Prayer for the French Republic will round out most technical nominee slates.
• Mary Jane and Gray House are cited as wild cards depending on their reception.

Costume and Set Design – Plays

• Period works like The Cottage, Pearly Victorious, and Stereophonic are expected to please nominators.
• Stereophonic: praised for meticulous period detail.
• "Best does not equal most"—subtle or modern design can (but rarely does) compete with more elaborate period pieces.
  Matt: “It’s very rare they nominate a design that’s contemporary because they’re like, what are you talking about? There are no corsets, there are no bustles.” (31:00)

Sound, Lighting, Costume, and Set Design – Musicals

• Cabaret and Water for Elephants lead most design categories.
• Outsiders, Here Lies Love, and Tommy are also contenders with big, “designy” moments.
• David: “Cabaret... will sweep all the design categories... just the sheer scale of what they do.” (40:07)
• The Outliers: Merrily We Roll Along, Back to the Future, and Spamalot, due to a mix of nostalgia, recreation fidelity, and new ideas.

3. Major Play & Musical Category Predictions [46:52–59:05]

Best Play + Play Revival [46:52–50:27]

Nomination locks:

• Stereophonic
• Prayer for the French Republic
• Patriots
• Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
• Mary Jane

“Jaja... was such a good time. I thoroughly enjoyed it. I want them to remember it." –Matt (49:27)

Play Revival:
Likely: Enemy of the People, Appropriate, Pearly Victorious
Outliers: Uncle Vanya, Doubt

Best Musical Revival [51:34–53:56]

• Locks: Merrily We Roll Along, Cabaret, Tommy
• Fourth slot: The Wiz edging out Gutenberg and Spamalot for being still open and beloved.

“Gutenberg, I think... is probably the most well-liked, but...I'm gonna switch it to The Wiz. That show also means a lot to a lot of people.” –David (53:14)

Best Score & Book of a Musical [54:02–58:51]

Score Favorites:

• Days of Wine and Roses
• Stereophonic
• Suffs
• The Outsiders
• The Notebook
  With Water for Elephants and Here Lies Love as close substitutes.

Book Favorites:

• Days of Wine and Roses
• Suffs
• The Notebook
• The Outsiders
• Water for Elephants

4. Performance Categories: The Real Bloodbath! [59:05–68:57]

Featured Actress/Musical (59:06–61:05)

Top picks: Bebe Neuwirth (Cabaret), Lindsay Mendez (Merrily), Nikki James (Suffs), Keisha Lewis (Hell’s Kitchen), Marian Plunkett (if not moved to Lead).

“Bebe steals that show ...in a role that is meant to not be flashy is incredible.”—David (60:36)
“If Marian [Plunkett] goes into featured, she's winning.” —Matt (60:15)

Featured Actress/Play (67:54–73:14)

• The consensus: "Fucking love this category."
• Battle expected between Kara Young (Pearly Victorious) and Sarah Pidgeon (Stereophonic).
• Other key contenders: Frances Benhamou (Prayer for the French Republic), Celia Keenan-Bolger (Mother Play), Victoria Pedretti (Enemy of the People), Natalie Gold (Appropriate).

Featured Actor/Musical (73:20–80:33)

• Near-lock: Daniel Radcliffe (Merrily)
• Strong chances: Steven Skybell (Cabaret), Paul Alexander Nolan (Water for Elephants)
• Wildcards: Brett Comer or Joshua Boone (Outsiders), Brandon Victor Dixon (Hell's Kitchen)
• Debate over whether Back to the Future or Spamalot men can crack the field; likely won’t.

5. More Juicy Debates and Hot Takes

Actor/Actress in a Play (85:18–88:17)

• Likely Actor: Jeremy Strong (Enemy of the People – "winning"), Michael Stuhlbarg (Patriots), Leslie Odom Jr. (Pearly), Steve Carell (Uncle Vanya)
• Actress: Sarah Paulson (Appropriate – "should make room for her trophy"), Rachel McAdams (Mary Jane), Jessica Lange (Mother Play), and likely Amy Ryan (Doubt) or Betsy Aidem (Prayer for the French Republic), depending on eligibility.

Actor/Actress in a Musical (94:48–104:44)

Actor:

• Locks: Jonathan Groff (Merrily), Eddie Redmayne (Cabaret), Brian D'Arcy James (Days of Wine and Roses)
• Contenders: Brody Grant (Outsiders), Dorian Harewood (Notebook), maybe Ollie (Tommy), Chip Zien (Harmony).

Actress:

• Kelly O'Hara (Days of Wine and Roses)
• Marian Plunkett (Notebook, unless moved to featured)
• Malia Joy Moon (Hell’s Kitchen)
• Gail Rankin (Cabaret)
• Toss-up between Shayna Taub (Suffs) and Eden Espinosa (Lempicka)

6. Direction & Choreography [108:22–113:25]

Direction of a Musical

• Locks: Maria Friedman (Merrily), Rebecca Frecknall (Cabaret)
• Highly likely: Danya Taymor (Outsiders), Jessica Stone (Water for Elephants), Des McAnuff (Tommy).
• Wild card: Michael Greif/Shelley Butler (Notebook), Leigh Silverman (Suffs), Justin Peck (Illinois—especially if he’s also credited for choreography).

Choreography

• Near-lock: Illinois (upcoming, but rehearsals are buzzed), Cabaret, Water for Elephants, Outsiders
• Could sneak in: The Wiz, Hell’s Kitchen, Tommy

Quotes & Tone: The Broadway Breakdown Experience

• “There are no small categories, only small nominations.” —Matt (04:34)
• “Best does not equal most!” —Matt (30:12)
• “I would put Beth Leavel in for best play.” —David (65:05)
• “If you watch the original [Tommy] production, the design is nothing but color... When you make it very sleek and self-serious, then you got people being like ‘wait a second, what’s happening right now?’” —Matt (43:15)
• “It honestly, when [Keisha Lewis] went on stage, the audience woke up!” —David (66:42)
• “The number one fan for Back to the Future will tell you so. Also, was drunk there.” —David (78:59)
• “What a hot take: Jeremy Jordan is talented.” —Matt (107:36)
• “I want to see her Spiderman: Turn Off the Dark!” —David, re: Danya Taymor (113:25)

Tone:
Outspoken, irreverent, nerdy, sharply analytical, often gleefully profane. Matt and David honor Broadway’s history and artistry even as they gleefully roast its politics, its eccentricities, and one another.

Final Thoughts

If you’re an awards-predicting, show-seeing, category-agonizing theater nerd, this episode delivers an encyclopedic, passionate, and snark-tinged tour of every Tony race. As Matt and David keep reminding us, in a year with no clear front-runners and eligibility questions looming, surprises are virtually guaranteed — so play along, hit up the Drama League with Matt and David, and don't sleep on Stereophonic for both art and tech awards.

Next up: Matt's interview with the lighting designer for Spamalot and Gatsby, and the final Tony predictions episode with a surprise guest.