A (0:00)

Think of the prestige. Think of the respect. No, no, no. Think of the Tony. Hello all you theater lovers both out and proud on the DL and welcome back to Broadway Breakdown, a podcast discussing the history und legacy of American theater's most exclusive address, Broadway. I am your host, Matt Koplik, the least famous and most opinionated of all the Broadway podcast hosts. And it's been a minute since I've spoken to you guys. Literally, it's been one minute. I am recording this about 20 hours since I recorded my reviews for Floyd Collins Pirates. And just in time. And now we have my final Tony award nomination predictions for 2025 before the nominations drop in about 40 hours, something like that. Tomorrow I've dropped this really pretty much like a minute after I record it. And so Wednesday will be the day that the Drama Desk nominations come out again. That won't really matter, but the good news is that the final eligibility rulings have come out for the final round of shows. So we will include all of those as we continue with this. Our final predictions. Now, if you haven't joined yet, you can absolutely join the Discord Channel where listeners are sharing their own opinions on nominations. We also have a listener who's been doing the Lord's work and graphing out statistics about past Drama Desk outer Critics Circle Drama League nominees and winners with past Tony winners over the years to sort of correlate percentage wise the likelihood of someone getting or not getting nominated based on quote unquote precursors that they've had. And I know I'm like beating a dead horse here, but we've talked about this before, right? Like there are no real such things as precursors for the Tonys. Again, it's very, very different voting pools and every voting body has their own what's we're looking for objective when putting together nominations. Sometimes they want to be seen like a real precursor and sometimes they get off sort of on the chaos of their nominations. Also, Outer Critics Circle, Drama League and Drama Desk can include Off Broadway as well, which is why things like Dead Outlaw and Buena Vista Social Club didn't get much so far because they were nominated for their Off Broadway runs. So that's all well and good as we go forward with our final nominations here today. But yes, you can join the Discord and talk about your possible nominations, talk about shows that you've loved seeing. If you have any questions. It's a very knowledgeable group. People really pool information from all over and are always happy to share insight and information for those who need it. We are a little over 260. I think we're like 266 right now. So we're close. We're getting. We're zoning in on that 300. That nice round 300 on the Discord. Before we get into the predictions, last thing, we have some two reviews that I want to read before we continue onwards. We are currently at 308 ratings on Apple Podcasts. Let's keep it going. We've got a lot of great. A lot of great people writing in, so. Okay. The Light on the Piazza Overture, five stars. Attention, American Theatre Wing. Written by dancer now therapist. Really, you guys are doing awesome work with these names. If this man does not get press seats, I'll sue. I don't know the legality of that all. Can you even imagine reading this while the Lightning Piazza Overture plays? Yes, we can, because it's happening. In all seriousness, this podcast slightly collapse. Matt's insightful and thoughtful discourse engages listeners to the point where you will talk back to the podcast. You will talk back. I appreciate the honesty of Matt's reviews. In particular, it's refreshing to see someone not only have strong opinions about theater, but also the insight to back it up while all in a cocoon of being kind in earnest. Thank you. I truly look forward to every new episode, especially the reviews as we are in the thick of Tony season. Oh, girl, we are in the thick, but we're getting out of the woods. To quote Taylor Swift, are we out of the woods yet? It also any man who can reference 30 Rock in nearly every episode has a forever fan in me. Xo. Stay tuned. I'll probably quote 30 Rock again today. Okay, last one. Five stars. A through fellow from Jessa Sparkles. Is that like Robin Sparkles from How I Met yout Mother? Okay, I love this podcast. It's well informed, it's well produced, and as someone in Ohio, I cannot afford to get to New York City to see everything on the Great White Way. And Matt Keith keeps me well informed. His reviews are nuanced and fair. And if you're looking for an American companion to someone like Mikey Jo, Matt is your man. Matt, he's your friend. Think little shop. Oh, like I'm your genie. I'm your friend. I'm your willow slave. Yeah, that's my. That's my Audrey, too. I'm really more of a Seymour, as we've learned. I did play the Seymour once back in the day, and I'm working on getting hot enough to play him in New York City, but it's been A challenge, y'. All. Well, thank you so much, you guys. There is one more review. I will not be reading it today. I'll be reading it Thursday, when Will and Rachel of the Theater Lovers come on to share their responses with me to the actual 2025 Tony nominations. And with that, without further ado, let us get into yours truly yours commentary, Tony predictions for 2025. So I'm going to sort of do commentary as we go in here. This is not necessarily what I would personally nominate, but this is me trying to figure out what the nominators would nominate. And I am pulling in my own seeing of shows this season. By the time the nominations come out, I will have seen Old Friends, and the only show I won't have seen yet is dad Outlaw, but I did see that downtown. So I will have a fully informed opinion about just about every show this season when the nominations come out. I have since seen Real Women have Curves. I will be doing a review of that with Old Friends and Dead Outlaw at the end of next week. So. Or beginning of next week. Unclear. So just keep that in mind. So, yes, pulling together my own personal thoughts on the shows that I've seen, responses I've been getting from friends, seeing those shows, people I've been speaking to, who are Tony voters, talking to people in the community and their thoughts on it, as well as just sort of general buzz on. On these shows. Right. So, like, some shows are doing well or middling at the box office, maybe got really great reviews or mixed reviews or mixed reviews, but somehow got a New York Times critics pick, which has happened more often than I care to, you know, want this season. So these are all things that we kind of take into account. Right. And I am trying to make the most informed opinions I can. You can look sort of at past Tony wins and Tony nominees to get a sense of what might happen. But again, the whole thing about the Tony Awards is that they try to switch it up, but this is not the Oscars, where once you're in, you're in. When you're a Tony nominator, you only get three years and it's not an overhaul. Every three years, they try to scatter it out. So there's always some new members on the nominating committee each year and older members, you know, being phased out. So the people who are nominating this year are not the exact same. Not the exact same group of people who nominated last year. But again, we do what we can. So we'll go down and move our way up, as has been Requested by listeners in the past. We'll do sound design first. Sound design of a musical. Oh, wait, sorry. I have. Why do I have sound design of a. I only have sound design of a play. Huh? Okay, hold on. Sound design of a play. Let's write out sound design of a musical, shall we? Okay, so for my sound design of a musical, sorry, this is the one thing that I, for some reason, didn't actually write in my notes app. So off the bat, I'm going to say Sunset Boulevard. I'm going to say maybe Happy Ending. I am going to say Floyd Collins. Going to say Dead Outlaw. And I'm going to say, huh, Maybe Buena Vista Social Club. Is that who I want? Is that what I'm gonna predict? Sunset Boulevard, which I still give. Which I would probably give the win. Maybe Happy ending. Floyd Collins, Dead Outlaw on Buena Vista Social Club. Yeah, those are gonna be my five. And then I'm going to say on the Bubble, things to just think about would be Smash, which sounds random, but Smash. Just in Time. Just In Time probably is the most on the bubble potential nominee here. And then Death Becomes Her. Just because I have a feeling Death Becomes her could get an overwhelming sweep of nominations in the tech categories. There are some spots that I feel like Death Becomes where has a very strong chance, but maybe isn't a total lock just yet. We will talk about that later on. But when it comes to tech, I feel like that's something that it's just gonna do really well with. The thing about the sound design with Death Becomes where is. As the cast albums come out, the songs are actually kind of tracking a bit better for a lot of us. And. And part of that is because the sound design in the theater is such that I could not make out all the lyrics when I first saw the show. And part of that might just be the l'. Enfantan. Hey, Sweeney Todd. But also, yeah, sometimes it's just a bit muddied, but there are sound effects like the stair falling down of the stairs and things like that that I'm sure Nominators will take into account. Sunset Boulevard, a lot of that show's success is based off of the sound design. Lot of ASMR moments may be Happy Ending is a very intricate sound design that works really well. I know I mentioned this in my Floyd Collins review, but sound is actually very important in Floyd Collins. And whatever kinks they had in early previews that people were complaining about, I felt were smoothed out. And I went to a Sunday matinee with a lot of Nominators in the audience. And when the call happens, the sound design is very important to that. And it was, I felt, executed flawlessly. So I have all of those down. Dead Outlaw, it being an audible theater show, the sound of that show is very important. I feel like that's intricate to its success. And same thing with Buena Vista Social Club. That is a show a lot about recording an album and the balance of the music with the vocals, it's all it. It's music that has to envelop you while also having a balance that doesn't make the singing muddled with the instruments. So I would say Sunset Boulevard may be happy ending. Floyd Collins, Dead Outlaw, Buena Vista Social Club. And then I would say just in Time, where death becomes her are on the bubble there with maybe Dead Outlaw and Buena Vista Social Club the most vulnerable here. I mean, Floyd Collins, I guess you could say, is vulnerable, but I don't think so. I'm going with my gut on that one. And then, yeah, I know I said Smash is sort of on the bubble. And it is. And it isn't more to come on that sound design of a play. I have Stranger Things, Dorian Gray, Good Night and Good Luck. And then this is where I'm kind of flying a little blind and just going with my gut, which is Job and McNeil. Two shows where, if you saw it, sound design was really, really, really important to those shows and they've been closed. But there might be enough nominators who would like to honor it. Think of Gray House last year, right. Of. Yes. It's not the best play. Yeah, we're not going to probably nominate for any acting awards, but when it comes to specific design stuff, it did nail, you know, this element. So just something to think about. On the bubble. I have Hills of California and Omari. I don't know. Oh, Mary. I feel like will only get a sound design nomination again in sort of the overwhelming sweep of showering praise on oh, Mary. And I feel like oh Mary, when it comes to nominations, may underperform for some people, just in the sense of. Because it's the biggest hit of the season, objectively the biggest hit. It's the only one. So one of the few shows this season to recoup. Has been making money every week since it opened. Has made. Has had a moment in culture and now the original cast is back. So it's back to being a total sellout. With that in mind, I think people are expecting sort of like Hamilton, you know, rent the producers numbers when it comes to nominations and I just don't think that is in Omari's future. I think Omari will ultimately win big at the Tonys. Like, I think it's one of those things like a Kimberly Akimbo where it may not have the most nominations of all the plays, but it will ultimately win the most important awards at the end of the night. But it's possible that it gets in for sound design just again on a sweep of We Love oh Mary. Next up, lighting design of a play. I have Stranger Things, Dorian Gray, Good Night and Good Luck, Hills of California and McNeil with Omar sort of on the bubble here and possibly John Proctor is the villain. Good Night and Good Luck. It was determined that the projections were going to be included with the lighting design when it comes to nominations, which is ultimately why I have Good Night and Good Luck in here. More on that to come with the next category. And then of course, with scenic design. Projections are very important in Good Night and Good Luck. It's a multimedia kind of show. And since the projections are included with. Are now deemed included with the lighting, I think that works in its favor. And it's a well lit show. It's moody, it's very Noir. Yeah. Again, McNeil, very tech heavy show. I don't see it getting a play, director or any acting nominations. But I think spoiler alert, set lighting and sound are three things that it could easily get in for because it's also a very objectively impressive tech side of it. Or MacNeil completely blanks. And I'm just wrong. I have Omari as a possibility here. Yeah. And John Proctor is a villain. This possibility. The ones I feel most confident in are Stranger Things, Dorian Gray and honestly Hills of California, which I could be wrong about. But those were the three shows with lighting that really just kind of stuck out to me. I mean, purpose could possibly get in there. There are a lot of lighting cues in Purpose due to all the narration that John Michael Hill has. But overall I'm just not super convinced. So TBD lighting design of a musical. I have maybe Happy Ending, Sunset Boulevard, Floyd Collins. Those are for me are locks. And I have no problem settling in on that. Next up, I have Just In Time and Dead Outlaw on the Bubble. I have Pirates, Operation Mincemeat and Death Becomes Her. Again, Death Becomes Her. I feel like could possibly have a major sweep when it comes to nominations on the tech side especially. But the lighting in Death Becomes her is less impressive to me than the rest of the design. But also the lighting is important to help support a lot of the special effects that the show has. Think Harry Potter, think Stranger Things. Right. Like, black lighting really helps with that. So that's something that nominators think about. But I do have maybe Happy Ending, Sunset Boulevard and Floyd Collins as locks here. And it's possible that Floyd Collins underwhelms with nominations. It could only get two at the end of the day, but I'm living in a world where it could get a few more than that. So I have lightning design for those three. Just in Time, I also think is a very, very likely nominee, as is Dead Outlaw. Pirates is lighting. It's less that it's super intricate and impressive and more that I think that the design of Pirates is the most successful thing about Pirates. And it has a lot of wonderful mood lighting. It's. I mean, the whole design is very much like Disney World, New Orleans, French Quarter to it. But again, we're not going for documentary here. We're going for Pirates of Penzance. So it all adds to the vibe of like, sumptuous aesthetic. And then Dead Outlaw is just. From what I recall from downtown, it's a very shadowy lighting design. And shadowy lighting designs tend to do really well with the Tonys, which is why I have it in here. Mincemeat. It's just sort of the. The set is very sparse and the lighting helps with the specificity of the staging of that show. Very similar vibes to Floyd Collins. I think Floyd Collins does it better. But Mincemeat does have its fans. And then one. I also have a Buena Vista Social Club as a possibility. I don't know how much I stand by that. Yeah, I don't. So I think my final nominees once again, maybe Happy Ending, Sunset Boulevard, Floyd Collins, Just in Time and Dead Outlaw. Those are my lighting design of musical nominees. Next up, we have costume design of a play right at the top. O Mary and Dorian Gray. Picture of Dorian Gray. Those are my two absolute. I am locked in on those. Next up, the. These three, I think are all sort of equally strong candidates, but not fully. I'm not fully convinced yet. Are Stranger Things, Goodnight and Good Luck and English. I have a possible upset for Hills of California or John Proctor as the villain. The Tonys have been proving that they are more open to more contemporary clothing in their costume designs. I wish they were that open to it during the Kimberly Akimbo year. But last year when we had Hell's Kitchen, which took place in the 90s, and we had Appropriate, which took place in rather present day and showed that they were open to this kind of stuff, which is ultimately where I think English can succeed, because English is 21st century clothing, but it's a different country, it's a different culture. There's a lot of nuance to the design of that, and I think it's very possible for the Tonys to recognize that. Good Night and Good Luck is very much a 1950s period piece. There's definitely, you know, a love for that. Stranger things again, 1950s, and much more elaborate and colorful in its costume design. So that's absolutely a possibility. And then Hills of California, you know, we go back and forth between the 50s and 70s. I don't know if I think it's going to be a lock in here. If it happens, it will be a delightful surprise. They have it on the bubble and then, oh, Mary is just, you know, I think is an absolute lock. It's period, it's goofy, it's colorful. Dorian Gray, it's multiple costumes for Sarah Snook, and again, very colorful. There's a lot of impressiveness to how quickly she melts in and out of each costume, and that's something that Tony's get very impressed by. So, yeah, I think that's. That's where I'm at. I think English, Goodnight and Good Luck and Stranger Things are comfortable but vulnerable with Hills of California on. On their heels. And honestly, same with John Proctor as the villain. And then, yeah, oh, Mary and Dorian Gray as sure things for me, anyway. Next up, costume design of a musical. The three that I absolutely have locked in here are Death Becomes her, which is winning the Tony. It just is Boop and Pirates. After that, I'm a little less sure. I have Buena Vista Social Club, which I feel confident in, but I'm not in love with that choice. And then I have Gypsy, and I don't know how much I stand by that. Part of me thinks that Just In Time could get in there. As one of my listeners said to me on Instagram today, you never count out Kathryn Zuber. Don't bet against Kathryn Zuber. And it's true. You can't do that. She. She gets in whether you like it or not. And it is. It is a 1950s, 1960s aesthetic, and it's very meticulous and detailed and very attractive to the eye. Gypsy is a musical that tends to get nominated for costumes even when you find the costumes are lacking. And I do find the costumes are lacking in Gypsy. I find the whole design of this gypsy to be lacking. A lot of things hinge on how much nominators like Gypsy, how much they like just in time, how much they like real women, have Curves or Smash, honestly, because as we get closer up into realer categories, not realer, they're all real, but like, you know, more prominent categories. I'm gonna sort of reiterate things that I have been mentioning in the past couple of episodes about some shows this season and where the buzz is in the community about them. I haven't heard really anything about Pirates lately, but I was communicating with a Tony Voter friend who was sort of asking me what I had been hearing around and I had asked him what he'd been hearing around and our feedback was kind of similar, which is ultimately sorry I said I was gonna talk about this earlier, but I don't care. This is welcome to the pod. There's no structure. The buzz that I basically have been hearing for the last month is that the community is getting far more up on Death Becomes Her. The the production has been very smart about upping their social media game lately and releasing new content lately. Having the cast album come out within the last like two weeks was perfectly timed because everyone is listening to it now, everyone's enjoying it. And those there are some of us who were sort of on the fence the score and are leaning more positive on it. Of course, people who didn't like the score the first time aren't now having a total 180 epiphany, but people who liked the show when it came out are being reminded how much they like it again. People who were sort of on the fence are liking it more. And I can speak for myself, I'm actually going to be going back to Death Becomes her this coming Thursday, the night of the nominations, which will be a fascinating performance. Either it's going to be a rock concert or it's going to be the angriest performance that cast has ever given. But everyone I've been speaking to for the last two weeks has kind of upped their love for Death Becomes Her, a show that, you know, opened with very strong reviews, kind of like mixed positive from the Times, but overall very strong reviews and super raves for Megan and Gen and then has continued to do really strong, if not like blockbuster business ever since it opened. And I think people were taking for granted all of that. I know I was. And a lot of us did not have it in as a lock for best musical. And in the last like three weeks I feel like its chances have have really solidified in so many categories. And so that is something to think about that people's Antenna is up and interested again in death becomes her. And with enough time before nomination voting happens for that to actually matter again. I will say, in terms of the community, the vibe on Gypsy is not great. There's. It's very much giving people saying one thing on social media and in public and then sort of in safe spaces saying, hey, can we talk? I didn't. I actually felt this kind of way, and a lot. I haven't had anyone reach out to me or talk to me in confidence or, you know, have spread word to me of hating it. But if you remember with the third Angels in America episode with Rob W. Schneider, who did like Gypsy, he said on the pod he's spoken to so many people since then who's gone in February and March and all being really underwhelmed by it. And that is the one thing I've also been hearing. I've had friends who are critics and, you know, and wrote very positive reviews on it, who are predictors on different award sites, who saw it in that one week where all the critics went and everyone was really up on it. And. And they've all been saying to me, like, you know, I still really enjoyed it, but, like, I've had friends go because of my review and reached out to me and said I was actually underwhelmed. So people I know who did really like it are telling me that the people they've been sending to have come back underwhelmed. And then people. I won't say names and I won't say which occupations, but just know all over the map in terms of, you know, actor, director, music director, like, all over the place. It's really all over the place. So I really don't want to give specifics because I don't want to write anybody out. But all over the place on Broadway, people have been talking to me about Gypsy in a semi hushed, I didn't love it tone. Now, that doesn't mean that Gypsy's gonna completely blank on Tony nomination warning. Doesn't mean it is out of the running for wins because, you know, a Broadway worker is not the same as a Tony voter. They're not. They're literally not the same person. A Tony voter. You just need the right 800 people to love your show for you to win. But it gives you a vibe of sort of how people feel about it or at least, you know, in the. In the circles that Gypsy most needs support from. That's not where it's really getting it from. There is love for it online, but not as Much in the community. And the cast recording coming out actually kind of had the opposite effect for people that death becomes her. Did people listening to the cast recording and going, oh, I don't think I need to go see it again to see if I have a new opinion, or people going like, oh, yeah, I stand by my original opinion, and I'm not taking that away from people who did love Gypsy. But we're talking about it, right? You guys ask me why I feel a way that I do or I predict the way that I do or what people are saying in the community. And that is one thing that people are saying is there's sort of a hushed tone of like, I didn't care for it. And it could be that those people are reaching out to me because I've publicly said on this podcast twice and wrote a review on Instagram that I was underwhelmed by it. But I also. I came from it from a perspective of ready for this Gypsy to be my personality for the rest of the season, and was disappointed when it wasn't. And then I went back a month later because everyone told me to go back, and I pretty much still felt the same. Now, this is a long tangent to go off based off of costume design, but this is again, a microcosm of a larger discussion of how are people feeling about these shows now before the nominations come out. Because when the reviews came out, it felt like, oh, well, fuck Matt Koplik's drag. Clearly gypsy's gonna get 20 nominations. That's not really where the vibe is at anymore with it. And when Death Becomes her opened, the vibe was sort of like, oh, we could get some. And then by January, February was like, oh, well, we'll see. We'll see if what they get probably like a costume design, a set design. And now this April, I'll say, like, the vibe is more like Death Becomes her could actually over perform with nomination morning. Another thing, other two things that people have been saying. Operation Mincemeat has proven very divisive in the Broadway community. Those who love it, love it. And then there have been a lot of people who are very cold on it. And so again, it's just a matter of who's the larger percentage. Real Women have Curves has had a lot of great buzz. I'll talk about my review when that comes out. But that's another one where there's a lot of support behind it. And then always sort of like a little grain of sand in that support of people being like, so I'm glad that Other people are loving it. But this is not truly a maybe happy ending situation where when maybe happy ending was in previews and right after it opened, like, truly, everyone was shouting from the rooftops, why is nobody seeing this? Everybody go see it. Everybody go see it. And it truly caused a shift in that show's future. It's little less that with Real Women have Curves. There's a lot of support. It's not quite unanimous in terms of plays. It's all pretty much what you would expect, I would say. But that is something I just sort of wanted to bring up as we continue onwards with this of like, what's on the bubble and what's a lock of shows that seemed far more. That they were going to be far more prominent in nominations three or four months ago have kind of lost some of their steam. And with a lack of frenzy around it, people are being a little more transparent about how they actually felt. So with costumes. With costumes, as I say, I think death becomes her boop. And pirates are Lockes. Buena Vista Social Club, I'm very feeling very strong about and Gypsy. I'm sort of the offensive of with Just in Time and even really Smash or Real. Real Women have Curves. But I'm gonna say Just In Time is the one that I would swap Gypsy out. But I'm gonna stick to my guns right now with Gypsy just again, because it's just for some reason, it's a show that always gets that costume nomination. I think the only one where it didn't was the Bernadette one. And granted this there, I'm getting a lot more vibes of this Gypsy with the Bernadette Peters, one of the. You know, we love our diva who's doing this. She's an icon, she's a legend. And it's history that she's doing the role. But not everyone feels that she's right for it. And listen, Bernadette went into Tony Knight, everyone being like, she's winning. And then she didn't. So just saying. Just saying. If we don't look and learn from our history, we are doomed to repeat it. Next up, scenic design of a play. My locks here I have are stranger things because it's most scenery there. Hills of California because it's beautiful. And then Dorian Gray, Eureka Day and McNeil. Because with Dorian Gray, Eureka, Day and McNeil. It was deemed that the projections and the projection design in Eureka Day and the cinematography in Dorian Gray were deemed part of the set design. And Dorian Gray is all about the camerawork, so that makes sense. Of why it would be in there for set. And there are also tangible sets in Dorian Gray. Let me just be clear. It's not all one big movie screen. Eureka Day. It's the council meeting that they have on Zoom with the projections that, like, if that's part of the set design, in addition to that very intricately detailed library, that Zoom is just so perfectly mapped out that, like, I think that that kind of pushes it over the threshold in putting it into a Tony nomination. And then McNeil is just very. Was just very high tech. Now, if anything were to be swapped out here, it would be eureka Day or McNeil and I would. And it would be swapped out for purpose or John Proctor is the villain. Both of which are very intricately detailed unit sets similar to a Eureka Day. Although Eureka Day does have a little surprise in its design in the second half. But I think that's pretty locked in, I would say. I think Stranger Things, Hills of California and Dorian Gray I feel very confident in. And then eureka Day and McNeil I feel strong about, if not fully confident with scenic design of a musical. And then we'll take a break. Sunset Boulevard, the cinematography similar to Dorian Gray, that was considered part of the set design. So I'm including that here as well as maybe Happy Ending Just in Time, Death Becomes Her And Pirates, the shows that I have on the bubble here are indeed Sunset Boulevard and Pirates. If anything's getting in there, it would probably be Buena Vista Social Club with a possibility of Redwood or Boop. But that's. Redwood is truly just nothing but projections. And unlike the 2008 Sunday in the park with George, it's not so state of the art and so mind blowing with what it does to the show that we acknowledge it. Like with Sunday in the park with George, the projection set design was so groundbreaking and really elevated the material in a new light that even though, yes, it was a projection, that was sort of the whole point of the design and it worked very, very well. Redwood is less the case for me. But you never say never. You know, we have sometimes we have our weird nominations. I mean, there's a world in where Floyd Collins gets a set design nomination just because of the intricacies of what looks at first to be a simplistic set. Never forget we have a Bob Crowley winning set design for once Tony Award. And even in a goddamn ghastly Covid year, I'm pretty sure he got nominated for his set for the Inheritance, which was mostly a platform, but it was a platform that sort of shifted shape, shifted throughout the evening. So sometimes it's not about most set, it's about the most effective set. And there's usually one design in the nomination pool that's like, very simple but very effective and very classy, with a couple of surprises here and there. It's not always about the most overwhelming set design. Right. Like, I think, didn't Band's Visit get a set design nomination, but not Frozen? And granted, a lot of people were underwhelmed by Frozen set design, but objectively speaking, it was a bigger set design than Band's Visit. So sometimes it's not about what's the most overwhelmingly impressive set. Great Gatsby last year was not nominated for set design. Lempicka got in over Great Gatsby, which was, you know, while I found that to be a rather not attractive set, it was also very simple set compared to Great Gatsby. So these things do happen. So I'm keeping Sunset Boulevard for now again, because the. The videography of that show is the whole point of this production. And including that in the set design nomination, I think kind of guarantees the nomination. We'll see how Cold Nominators are on Sunset Boulevard. That is another production that's pretty divisive. Not as insanely so as Mincemeat or even this current Gypsy. I've spoken to people who have been detractors of it, but I've also spoken to more people who were impressed by it. Similar to Dorian Gray, where it's like, I can't tell you why I was moved. It didn't change my mind on the musical. But what they do is really interesting, even if I didn't always agree with it. Like, I applaud the creativity of it, which is, I feel like always damning with faint praise. But these days you'll take the praise no matter how faint it is. Just in time, you know, Never underestimate the power of an environmental set. Maybe Happy ending. That's. I think maybe Happy Ending is probably the winner for set design. Death becomes her, I think. Definitely getting in. And, you know, Pirates, as I said, the first act was more successful for me than the second, but it's like very Mystery of Edwin Drood esque, if you remember that Roundabout revival where it's a very handsomely designed production and it's not. I mean, it's roundabout, so it's not the most expensive thing you've ever seen, but it is. It is a handsomely designed production and we cannot discredit that. So for now, that's what I'm Doing? I am sticking with scenic design of a musical. Maybe happy ending, just in time, Pirates, Sunset Boulevard, and death becomes her with a redwood. Or yeah, with a redwood on the cusp. Maybe Buena Vista Social Club, but I don't really believe that. Oh, and boop. Yeah, boop is sort of on the cusp there too. All right, so that's what I have for those design categories. We're gonna take a break and then I'm gonna get into the rest of it. So let's take a break. Billy, I beg to differ with you. How do you mean? You're the top. Yeah, you're an arrow collar. You're the top. You're a Coolidge dollar. You're the nimble tread of the feet of Fred. And we back. Next up, we have best orchestrations. This could go a number of ways because we have orchestrations that are eligible for the expanded arrangements for Floyd Collins and last five years, Sunset Boulevard was deemed eligible for orchestrations, which I wrongfully said they were not the last time we spoke on this. But I've since been rightfully informed that they are now eligible. And I've talked about this before with orchestrations, you kind of have to do a mishmash of what are your frontrunners for score. What are jukebox musicals that do brand spank and new arrangements of songs in a way that's objectively noticeable. And then revivals that do brand spank a new arrangement of stuff. So for last last year, there was Merrily, which was nominated and won. I can't really rightfully say that it was a mind blowingly brain spankingly new arrangement, but what have you, Illinois's jukebox, Hell's Kitchen jukebox, that all sort of, you know, quote unquote, did new things with its music. And then what did we have for the rest of orchestrations? It was Illinois, it was Hell's Kitchen, it was Merrily We Roll along. And we also had Here We Go, Stereophonic. That's an anomaly, but, you know, that was an original score nominee. And then the Outsiders. Oh, so fascinating. The best score winner last year was Suffs, and that did not have an orchestrations nomination, so fuck my drag on that. But if you look further back, you'll sort of see the same thing. Right? So 2023, we had Kimberly Akimbo nominated, which did win score Some Like It Hot, which is an anomaly for a winner of score because sometimes, you know, a score nominee will win orchestrations, but not score. That also happened with Thoroughly Modern Millie. So, you know, 1920s brass band arrangements make sense and Juliet and New York New York jukebox musicals that are due. You know, they're doing new arrangements of those songs and then shucked. Another best score nominee. 2022, Girl from the north country, which is the winner. Jukebox musical that does a new style of arrangements on Bob Dylan Music Company which was a brand spanking new revival. And then MJ again, another jukebox musical doing new things with Music We Know 6, which won Best score and Strange Loop which is probably the runner up for best score. We can look at 2019. We have Hadestown winning Orchestrations which did win score. Tootsie which was probably the runner up for best score. Kiss Me Kate in Oklahoma, two revivals doing funky new things with its score. And then Ain't Too Proud again, jukebox musical doing funky things. So you get a little bit of these blends here. So with that in mind for orchestrations, I currently have maybe Happy Ending and Dead Outlaw as my what I would call my two locks. I think that they're the most likely winners for best score and thus I have them in for orchestrations. Buena Vista Social Club and Just In Time are two jukebox musicals that do new spanking arrangements for music that has already pre existed. And then Sunset Boulevard I have for orchestrations after that. What the. The four that I sort of have on the bubble. I'm going to say three. The three that I have on the bubble are Death Becomes Her Last five years and Floyd Collins. Of those three, I think that last five years is probably the most likely to sneak in here. Jason R. Brown is very well respected in the community and Tony nominators do like rewarding him. How they feel about the revival might affect how likely it is that Last five Years gets in for orchestrations. I think that there's probably more love for the Floyd Collins revival than the last five years. And also it's a way to recognize Floyd Collins score since it won't be eligible for score because it's a revival due to classics. And then Death becomes. I think that the orchestrations for Death Becomes are fucking slap. And they should get a nomination for bringing the cowbell back. There's a cowbell in the Tell Me Ernest and Tell Me Ernest Reprise tracks and it is incredible. Gunkle and I, Adam Elsbury and I talk about it all the time in our texts of like that Big Fat fucking cowbell and how hot it is. But I think that that's a possibility, not a likelihood as of right now. Yeah, maybe Happy Ending Dead Outlaw, Buona Vista Social Club. Just in time and Sunset Boulevard. I would probably make those my. Yeah, those are my five Orchestration nominations. I think if I were to swap anything out for Floyd Collins or Death becomes her in terms of, like, what I think is on the bubble, it would maybe be Sunset or Buena Vista Social Club. Yeah, that's. I think those are the five I'm sticking with. And those are the two with last five years of sort of third on the bubble I have for orchestrations choreography. With the new eligibility rulings, it's been deemed from what I understand from the discord that Smash is now eligible for choreography. So with that in mind, I have Buena Vista Social Club, which I think will win. Boop. Which I think is a very strong runner up. Death. Death becomes her. Smash and Pirates, I would call those R5. If I were to say anything was on the bubble, it would be just in time. I thought maybe Gypsy would be on the bubble with Camille Brown, but the Cheater Rivera nominations just came out and while Kevin Sherlock, is that his name, who plays Tulsa, was nominated, the cast was not nominated and Camille was not nominated. And again, this is not about oh, same voting body so much as it's like, huh, if the dancing community didn't love her work, what does that say about the choreographers in the Tony nominating committee? Unclear. It could be a big fat nothing and she does get nominated. We've had these things happen before where people don't get nominated for two or three different bodies and then ends up winning the fucker at the end. But it's just something to think about, right? We take in as many context clues as we possibly can. So I'm sticking with Buena Vista. Boop. Pirates. Death becomes her and Smash, I think those are the five. If I were to say anything could get kicked out of here, it would be Smash and it would be for just in time or for Gypsy. Maybe real women have curves. Maybe. But I'm more likely to have a Wonderful World get in there for choreography before real women have curves. Unless nominators just are so over the moon for real women have Curves, which could happen, but I'm not totally convinced for direction of a play. I have O Mary Hills of California. John Proctor is the villain Purpose and English, which is spoiler alert. That's also my five nominees for best play. I think it's going to line up immediately. If I were to say anything's on the bubble, it would be Kip Williams for Dorian Gray or Leigh Silverman for Yellowface Lee is very well liked. Yellowface is having a resurgence due to its PBS broadcast. They've been doing private screenings of it throughout the city with people in the community with Tony Nominators. It could give it that nice pearly victorious boost. Unclear. But as of right. Right now, I just think that this is. I feel like this is a solid five. It's a diverse five. It's a well liked, well critically respected five. Dorian Gray. If it were to get nominated, I think it would. It would be the rare case of a play getting a director nomination without a best play or best revival nomination. Similar to To Kill a Mockingbird or Network. It happens. It happens. It almost never happens with musicals, but it can sometimes happen with plays. And if any play this season is going to get a director nomination but not a best play nomination, it will be Dorian Gray. So I think that's sort of something to be on the lookout for for director of a musical. I currently have maybe happy ending, Sunset Boulevard, Dead Outlaw. Those are my three, in my opinion, locks here and then what I have sort of uncomfortable but bubbly ground are Operation Mincemeat and Death Becomes her. There is a world in which death becomes her super overperforms on Thursday and Operation Mincemeat super underperforms. There are a lot of prognosticators who think that Mincemeat will ultimately get kicked out of director, get kicked out of musical, get kicked out of score and book. Really believing that just in time and Real Women have Curves are gunning for those musical slots, kicking out Mincemeat that Real Women have Curves is gunning for that score slot, kicking up Mincemeat. I'm a little less convinced of that right now. Again, there is a little bit of a home court hometown pride that Tony's will have when it comes to musicals especially. But if there is a British musical that they enjoy and they're not necessarily worried about what's gonna win, just what will be nominated, there's less concern about that. There's usually a British musical that gets in there like an N Juliet, a Matilda, a Groundhog Day, Billy Elliot, obviously winning. But people are less nervous about British musicals getting nominated. It's more about the winning that have to talk about. But for right now, I am. I'm feeling okay about Mincemeat's chances right now. I think that the tide hasn't officially turned with it. It's doing well. It got strong reviews. It's not hated in the Broadway community. I'll tell you that. It's more that with all of the hype from London and the strong reviews and people and the fan base being so, let's just be honest, very loud about it. I've spoken to a few folks who walked out and were just very confused by all of that. Similar vibes to Gypsy. I'm not going to say who, I'm not going to say what their roles are, but it doesn't, actually doesn't matter who I say their roles are because the truth is that it's everyone all over the place. It's directors, writers, actors, press teams, producers. I will actually, the one thing I will say is that actors have been more mixed on Gypsy. Producers have been very mixed on Operation Mincemeat. And maybe it's people looking at their own and going, oh, you know, I want my project to do well. But I mean, these are also producers I've spoken to who don't have anything this season or what they do have this season is an indirect competition with Mincemeat. So that's just something to think about. I do still think it'll ultimately get in. I just think that its chances of winning much outside of maybe Jack Malone are weaker than its fandom realizes. So keep that in mind. On the bubble though, of possible directing nominations, the two I have at the forefront are George C. Wolfe for Gypsy and Alex Timbers for Just In Time with a very dark horse in Tina Landau for Floyd Collins. Never ever discount Tina Landau's ability to get nominated. She got nominated for Mother Play. That's a goddamn feat. She got nominated for spongebob. She won't get nominated for Redwood. She could get nominated for Floyd Collins. Floyd Collins is a well liked musical in the theater community. It's now on Broadway and it's not a disaster in the way that Broadway world would have you believe. If you listen to my review, you know that I really, really enjoyed it. But also I know a lot of other people who really, really enjoyed it. And Tina is well liked. Lincoln center is a well liked institution. It's never underestimate Tina Lando and never underestimate Lincoln center either. Their ability to get nominations. In the same way, when people said don't count on Kathryn Zuber, she tends to get nominated. It's true. It's true with, with both of these. So I think Floyd Collins for director in a musical is a dark horse, but it is a possibility. So do not be surprised if you see her name pop up. I, I would be more likely to put money on George C. Wolfe for Gypsy or Alex Timbers in Just In Time Before Tina. I'm just putting it on everybody's radar. If it happens, don't say, don't say I didn't warn ya. But as of right now, I'm going to say maybe happy ending, which is a lock. Sunset, which is a lock and I think is probably going to win. Dead Outlaw, I find a lock. Mincemeat, very likely, but not a sure thing. And then death becomes her. Chris Catelli for death becomes her. Chris Catelli, who is well liked, who's been working for a long time. And again, the attitude on death becomes her has come back around to quite ebullient. So I think that there's a world in which it does quite well with nominations. Next up, featured actor in a play. Okay, I'm going to say this right here, right now. The featured acting categories this year in both plays and musicals is truly the wild West. Anything anyone could or could not get nominated. People who you thought were total locks to win even may not make it in. Because I have no idea how 52 people, only half of whom I've met are going to feel about these performances. Especially when it's now been confirmed to me that the Tony nominators, shows and actors and writers cannot. It's no longer within a three vote difference for a show to expand a category. A tie now has to be an actual tie. It can't be, oh, there's a three vote difference. It's got to be a literal tie now. So that means there could be some random nominees getting in there because of splitting nominations where no 20 people wanted this person, 20 people wanted that person, and then the person who had 21 gets in randomly. So. So we're all flying blind. And I am. This is the one where I'm going off of my personal feelings on these performances as well as just sort of what Tony nominators have liked in the past and just general impressions. I'm getting featured actor in a play. Off the bat, I'm gonna say Conrad Rick Amora. I'm gonna say Francis Ju. Yellowface was very well received and Francis was definitely considered the highlight of the show. It's getting a revival nomination and they are timing out this PBS broadcast perfectly. Again, this is a pearly Victoria situation and I think that's going to benefit Francis more than anyone in yellowface. After that, it gets a little trickier. There is a world in which all three men from Glengarry, Glen Ross, down the line, get Bill Burr, Bob Odenkirk, Kieran Culkin. I am currently having them in My five. I feel less sure about Kieran and Bob. I feel more sure about Bill. And if Kieran or Bob don't get in on the bubble, I have James Scully for Omar, Glen Davis for Purpose, and Gabriel Ebert for John Proctor as the villain. Now, would I like Andrew Burnout for Othello to get nominated? Absolutely I would. I don't know if it's gonna happen. It's a little easier when your show has a bigger footprint on the nomination circuit. And I don't know if Othello's gonna have much of a footprint outside of actor and possibly revival. I think with Purpose, Glen Davis has a good shot, especially now that his other co stars are in lead. Gabriel Ebert has a shot for John Proctor. We will get to that. James Scully has a shot if. Oh, Mary overperforms. I think between the two, I would personally put in James over Conrad, but I think that Conrad is a. Conrad should be a Tony nominee by now. Here lies love. He should have been a Tony nominee and we all know it. We all know it. But he's. He is good in Omar. I liked him more downtown than I liked him uptown. And I actually thought his replacement was really fucking good. But Conrad is well liked. He is in a fucking hit. He is the second biggest role in Omari. Dude also receives fellatio while doing a very dramatic monologue to God. And for me, I'm like, okay, yeah, that's. Here we go. That's a Tony nomination for you. So yes, I think Conrad, Bill Burr, Francis, Jew. And then I'm just gonna go with my cynical side and say Bob Odenkirk and Kieran Culkin with a possibility of Glen Davis, James Scully or Gabriel Ebert getting in there as well. Or instead of featured actress in a play. The only two true locks I I have right now are Jessica Hecht for Eureka Day and Kara Young for Purpose. Similar to Tina Landau and Kathryn Zuber. Don't count out Kara Young. She likes to get nominated. Getting nominated is what she does, especially in this category. I have mentioned in my review, she was out at the matinee that I saw Purpose. So I can't report on her performance. I can only report on the. Which I did not find to be my favorite role in the play. I'm sure she brings her Carrie youngness to it and that helps. But Alanna Arenas was the one who. I walked out of that theater going like, who the fuck is she? Get her a Tony nomination. And could it happen? It absolutely could happen. Tony nominators could go batshit Crazy for purpose. And my Lord, would I be thrilled if Alana Arenas got in. But I just don't think that's happening. I think it's Carrie Young. After that, it's all sort of up in the air. I think Bianca Lee could get in for Omar. She's very good in the show, and having gone back to see her with Betty Gilpin, she's actually gotten even better and is very, very funny. So that I think she absolutely could get in again if Omari overperforms. I think Tala Ash has a very good shot of getting in. And then I'm gonna say finastrasa for John Proctor as the villain. Oh, and Tala Ash, by the way, is for English. Tala Ash has had the most awards buzz when English was off Broadway. She got the most recognition for that production. And I think that gives her the best shot here. It is also the best role in the show. She is wonderful. The whole cast is wonderful, but she is also very wonderful Finna. I feel like her character is really the backbone of the show, and that helps in an ensemble piece like this where you're not quite sure who you would nominate. If it's not Finna, it could be Amalia Yu for John Proctor as the villain, who I would argue feels more of a lead than Sadie Sink. But we'll get to that. This unfortunately means that I don't have anyone in my predictions from the hills of California. And it's true. Again, this is my cynical side showing Leanne Best or Helena Wilson could either get in for Hills of California. We'll see if that over performs on the day. Again, my cynical side is saying, no. I've got nobody from Othello, from Romeo and Juliet or Our Town. I have nobody from Stranger Things or from Good Night of Good Luck. This is this. No. 1 from Cult of Love. This is who I got. I do think Hecht and Chara are the Lockes again with Tala Ash and Bianca Lee is a very strong possibility. And then finostrasa is my gut response from John Proctor as the villain. My hope somebody from Hills of California gets in. I'm again, I'm being cynical here. Featured actor in a musical I currently have, and I am once again flying blind here. I have Jack Malone for Operation Mincemeat, Danny Burstein for Gypsy, David Thaxton for Sunset Boulevard, Tom Sesma for Dead Outlaw, and Brooks Ashmansk is for Smash. Brooks is so beloved. He has two shows this season and he is one of the better things about Smash, if the nominating Committee ends up just fully hating Smash. A. That means Camille A. Brown has a better shot of getting in for choreography for Gypsy over Josh Brigace for. For choreography. But also, if they don't like Smash, that means Brooks is very vulnerable. But I think of all the things from Smash that could overcome negative feelings towards that show, Brooks is the one to do it. Jack, I feel very strong about Jack is one of the few people in featured that I absolutely am confident in their nomination and probably confident in their winning. Danny Burstein, I feel very confident being nominated for Gypsy. Herbie has almost always been nominated, except for one time. Otherwise, he's always been nominated. Danny is one of the better things of this production. Again, he's very beloved. I don't doubt his nomination. I don't. I'm not saying 100% here. I'm saying 100% for Jack Malone. I'm saying 90% for Danny. David Thaxton. I'm also saying 90% for Sunset Boulevard, Tom Sesma. I'm saying 85% for Dead Outlaw, Brooks Ashmanskas. I'm saying 75% for Smash of any of the people. And again, I think other than Jack, everyone here is vulnerable in some way. If you're not 100%, in my mind, you are vulnerable. And the people who are sort of on the outside waiting to get in are Jeb Brown, also for Dead Outlaw, Marcus Choi or Des Duran for maybe Happy Ending, which could really just annihilate with nominations. Chris Seiber, also super beloved for Death Becomes her, which again could super annihilate. Or Taylor Trencher, Floyd Collins, which could be a major surprise nomination. Taylor, also very well liked, is not a Tony nominee yet. And this could be a really big break for him because he comes in and he is pretty regularly wonderful in the shows he's done. When he's not wonderful, it's truly because he's miscast in something or misdirected. I thought nobody was good in that Bear revival off Broadway, and I don't. And everyone in that cast is so. Is such a good performing musical actor. So I don't blame any of them. I blame the material. I blame the direction. And Taylor is fantastic in this, and I would love to see him get respected for it. It could happen. I would say he's got a 30, 35% shot. I was talking to some folks from Floyd Collins after the show and they were asking me what my thoughts were of like. Because they all feel like Jeremy's a lock, but they're like, we would love it. If Taylor got nominated, do you think he'd get nominated? And my short answer was fuck if I know. I would love it if he did though. But that also sort of shows you how loved Taylor is and how respected his performance is by so many people. So be on the lookout again, I'm saying Jack, Danny, David, Tom Brooks, but I am only confident to one of those five. So be on the lookout for Taylor, be on the lookout for Jeb Brown for Dead Outlaw and then be on the lookout for Marcus or Deads. I don't think there's anyone else I would really consider a possibility. Maybe someone from Buena Vista Social Club. But I really, really doubt it if I'm being perfectly honest. Okay, featured actress in a musical. The only two nominees here that I am saying are a lock for me are Natalie Venetia Belcon for Buena Vista Social Club, who I think has the the roadmap to win. And then Justina Machado for Real Women have Curves. After that we shall see. My other three currently are Jinx Monsoon for Floyd for Pirates, Whoa. Joy woods for Gypsy and Lea Salonga for Old Friends. By the time the nominees nominations will come out, I will have seen Old Friends and I can make a more informed decision on this. But just based off of everything everyone is saying is that Leia walks away with the show. She has overall the best material and really just burns the house down in the best kind of way. Not in the way that I was with Pirates. Burns it down just terms of talent and star quality and excellence and execution. But Leia could be put aside for the allure of nominating Bernadette Peters, who has not had a Tony nomination, I'm pretty sure since 2003, I don't think. Has Bernadette been nominated since Gypsy? That is the question I have for all of us today. I'm pretty sure she has not because she wasn't nominated for Follies. She wasn't eligible for hello Dolly because she was a replacement. She wasn't eligible for for A Little Night Music because she was a replacement. What was her last Tony nomination? It was. It was Gypsy. Bernadette has not been nominated since 2003. It's been 22 years. So there could be an allure to nominating her after 22 years and what might be the last chance to nominate her? Not that she's dying anytime soon, but with people like Bernadette Peters, who she's been away from the stage for many years, she takes long gaps now in between shows. You don't know the next Time she's coming back. If she ever comes back. It could be very much like a Barbara Cook in Sondheim on Sondheim situation, nominating a legend who's associated with Sondheim. So I think Leia's on the bubble. I think Joy is on the bubble, and I think the Jinx is on the bubble. I don't think any of those three are safe. I have Joy in because I'm still not entirely sure how nominators feel about Gypsy. Overall, Louise is a role in that has always been nominated. If Herbie has almost always been nominated, Louise has literally always been nominated. The downside is that the Patti the Pon, Gypsy is actually still fresh in a lot of people's minds. Benanti, Boyd, Gaines and Patty all won. And so the performances in this one are, whether you like it or not, being compared to that. And of the three, Joy is the one who. I've spoken to people who have felt the most underwhelmed in comparison to the last go round, and that could work against her. But Joy is also very well liked. And if you see someone you like succeeding career wise and maybe you have notes on their performance, but overall it's not such a underwhelming experience that you're mad at them. You, you, you help out those who you like the most. And is that fair when, when trying to objectively judge art? No. But whether we like it or not, art is always subjective, even when we try to be objective. When I try to be objective, I still have my tastes infiltrate, my personal experience infiltrate. And I do my best, but it's impossible to fully keep it out. And that happens sometimes with nominations. That said, I do think that Bernadette is absolutely a very easy threat and could immediately wipe out Leia, Jinx or Joy. And I'm being a little crazy when I say Leia Salonga, but I'm just again, I'm going off of my gut feeling based off of word of mouth. I think there's also a possibility for Julia Knittle for Dead Outlaw, which could also overperform. And I also think that Grace Hodgett Young could get in if Sunset Boulevard is really well liked. The problem is that Betty Schaeffer is just such a dud role, but people have really liked her performance in it and that could help her. I'm holding out hope for Gracie Lawrence in Just In Time. I really don't think it's happening. But again, there's always a surprise somewhere. There's always an Elizabeth A. Davison once kind of surprise you're like, oh, where did that come from? And I believe she got a Drama League nomination. Gracie Lawrence, don't quote me on that. I'm too lazy to look it back up again. But I think she did. Which isn't to say that that means she will get nominated, but it does mean that there is somebody out there who recognized that she's doing a really lovely job. Next up, we have Actor in a Play. I have Cola Scola for o', Mary, Jake Gyllenhaal for Othello, John Michael Hill for Purpose, Kit Connor for Romeo and Juliet, and George Clooney for Goodnight and Good Luck. Now, the only two here that I am confident about are Cole and Jake. John Michael Hill, I feel solidly about For Purpose, not amazingly about. Kit is a pipe dream that I think has a very strong likelihood but is by no means a sure thing. And Clooney is my cynicism. I think Lewis McCartney has a very good shot of taking out either Clooney or Kit or John Michael Hill for Stranger Things. There's a possibility of Robert Downey Jr. For McNeil, but I don't really buy ultimately comes down to how people feel about the revivals because Daniel Dae Kim could also get in for yellowface. And I think that that's. Honestly, I think that that's more of a likelihood than Jim Parsons or Denzel Washington or Robert Downey Jr. There's a lot of negativity about this Othello. And as of right now, Jake is sort of the only thing that people are willing to openly, begrudgingly say is good. Which is a shame because I think burn up is the best thing about it, but Jake is the second best thing. So again, I think Cole Escola and Jake Gyllenhaal are the locks. Cole is, in my opinion, clearly winning. John Michael Hill, Kit, and then George with Lewis McCartney very much a possible threat for any of them. And Daniel Day Kim another threat for any of them. If you were to say, okay, Matt, you have to put in Lewis McCartney and Daniel Tae Kim instead of anyone else, it would be to swap out George Clooney and unfortunately Kit. But I'm. I'm sticking with George and Kit for now. I think there's going to be not a ton, but a little bit of star fuckery with these nominations. Just, just a tad, just a touch. Next up, we have Best Actress in a Play. I have Sarah Snook for the Picture of Dorian Gray, Laura Donnelly for Hills of California, latonya Richardson, Jackson for Purpose. I think those three are absolute locks with Snoop winning. And then I have Sadie Sink for John Proctor as the villain, who's been deemed lead and has now given us nine contenders, which means we have five nominees in this category. And the fifth slot, I believe will be Mia Farrow for the Roommate. I think the two people who are probably on the outside possibly sneaking in are Patti LuPone for the roommate, who I personally would not nominate, but I think she's knocking at that door. And then Sidney Lemon for Job, who again, I don't know how people feel about Job. I was mixed on it myself. But I think Peter Freeman and Sidney Lemon absolutely nailed it. And I think her category is a little easier to break into than Peter's. So I think there's a. I think she's got a shot here. I do. I really do think she's got a shot. It could just be a 15 shot, but it's a shot. And I think, yes, Snoop is winning. Donnelly would still be my vote, but I'm happy that she'll be nominated. Latonya Richardson Jackson is not a leading performance, in my humble opinion, but it does get her in here. And yeah, I think. I think Sadie Sink is now a lock at this point because I think John Proctor is the villain is going to do well, if not insanely well with nominations. And yeah, I'm gonna say Farrow for five. Okay. How many more do we have left? Okay, I've got six more to go. I will do all of those after this break. Billy, I beg to differ with you. How do you mean? You're the top. Yeah, you're an arrow color. You're the top. You're a Coolidge dollar. You're the nimble tread of the feet of Fred Astaire. And we're back. Next up, actor in a musical. I think we've got four locks here. We've got Jonathan Groff for Just In Time. We have Jeremy Jordan for Floyd Collins, Tom Francis for Sunset Boulevard, and Darren Criss for maybe Happy Ending. And there's a. There is a trajectory where any of those four could win. I was talking to somebody about this, about what could get any of those men to win the Tony. Was this on the Discord Channel? No, I was. I think I was texting with somebody. You know, Groff is just coming off of his first win, but we've had back to back wins in the past and he is the main attraction for the show. He is the reason that it is being produced. He is what's keeping it afloat. He got across the board Raves. I thought he did a really great job. If you listened to my review, you know that my biggest complaint is that I don't think he's channeling Bobby Darin. But, hey, that doesn't seem to be a problem for most people. Jeremy, I think, is giving a stellar performance and is at this moment giving my favorite male performance in a musical of the season. And it's the title role, and it would be a way to honor Floyd Collins without giving it revival, because I don't think it will win revival. And in a lot of ways, he has sort of an overdue narrative about him, which seems weirdly unfair considering he hasn't had many shows in the past like he had Gatsby last season. But I think that was his first Broadway show since American Son, and American Son was, you know, a long time after Newsy. So he hasn't actually been in a lot to get that narrative. But he's been a major name in theater for over a decade at this point, and he only has one Tony nomination, and this could really be a major win for him. So there is that overdue narrative, and he's doing beautiful work. Graf obviously has, like, the marathon role. Tom Francis is absolutely holding his own opposite Nicole Scherzinger. He did win the Olivier, which is not a precursor by any means, but it does give people a touchstone to come to when they're thinking about, like, well, could I vote for him? Some people go, well, people voted for him before. I should have no problem voting for him. And then Darren Criss is the male lead of what is still the front runner for Best Musical and could also win and is giving a very beautiful, delightful performance. Fifth slot is a little trickier. I currently have Andrew Duran for Dead Outlaw because I feel like Dead Outlaw is going to do quite well with nominations. And his performance is fascinating because for the first half, he really does a lot, sings acts, runs the gamut, and does beautiful, charming, engaging work. And then the second half, surprise, surprise, he's dead. And he's dead on stage the entire time and doesn't move. And it's sort of like you. You have to do a Weekend at Bernie's with an actual person and a Bonnie and Clyde for the first half. And it is weirdly impressive and it could be a fun nomination. He's been. He got nominated for this across the board last season, so clearly it resonated with people and it could resonate with people now. And he is, well, he is also someone who is well liked, who has been a highlight in featured roles in the past, in Shucked in Head Over Heels, he was in Titanic at Encores and did very well. He's a very good performer that people like a lot, and this is a major stepping stone for him, and that could really do it for him. The tricky thing is David Hyde Pierce for Pirates was deemed lead by the Tony committee, and that could be a kerfuffle. In Andrew's Feather. David Hyde Pierce does not really have enough material for me to really think of him as a strong lead. Now, George Rose was nominated for lead for the same exact role for pretty much the same amount of material, if maybe even a little less material than David Hyde Pierce in this production of Pirates of Penzance. But it's tricky to nominate David Hyde Pierce for this when the other men in his category have so much more and objectively do so much more. Now, David Hyde Pierce is, in my opinion, unquestionably the MVP of Pirates, and I would nominate him if he were in featured. I would put him in featured and I think he would be a major opponent for Jack Malone here. I think he's a very, very strong likelihood for an upset nomination. But I'm still going with my instincts here and I'm going to say Andrew Durant in 48 Hours. I'm going to regret this and it's going to be David Hyde Pierce and Pirates is going to get 30 nominations and I'm going to feel like a giant asshole. But for now, I'm going to say David Hyde Pierce. Ramin Karen Liu also is deemed lead. I don't think he's getting in. Brooks was deemed featured for Smash, which I think is incorrect, but it's fine. Yeah, those are my five Jeremy Jordan, Jonathan Groff, Tom Francis, Darren Criss and Andrew Durand with Don't be surprised if David Hypierce gets in there instead of Andrew Actress in a musical. I personally think we've got three locks. Audra Nicole and Jasmine Amy Rogers for Boop. I could end up being very upset come Thursday and Jasmine does not get in here. I find it hard to believe. Again, this is where my head is trying to convince my heart out of something. But every time my head has convinced my heart out of something, it's been wrong. I say this as we look back on my cynical choices in Featured. I think after that it's trickier for a while. I was saying you can't nominate Death becomes her for best Musical and not nominate Megan or Jen. And you can't nominate one without the other. Really. I look Forward to seeing it again in two days and seeing how my perspective on the show and their performances change since November. But in November, I remember saying that I thought Gen maybe had slightly lesser material than M3GAN, but was, for me, giving the more fully realized and special performance. So if it was a matter of, okay, you can only get one death of a concert woman in there. If you want to include Helen J. Shen for maybe happy ending, I'm like, okay, it's Jen. And then Helen can get in there. But. But now with Death becomes her really having a resurgence in the consciousness of the community, I think that helps Death becomes her become a lock for best musical. Spoiler alert. We'll get to that. But I think that also helps Megan and Jen get in. Now, they have had some attendance issues in the last three months. Broadway is no joke. These roles are a fucking marathon. And we've had flu season. We've had Covid. We've had norovirus going around. People have been getting sick. And this is not a show you do when you're at, you know, 85%, let alone 50%. I think we all know that Megan and Jen do not call out unless they absolutely have to. So the fact that they've called out as much as they have, I think is more a testament to, A, how hard this show is, and B, just how much sickness has been going around Broadway. And that's something that people absolutely understand. Okay, There have been people who've had major attendance issues and still fucking won the Tony. Sarah Ramirez missed, like, half of her performances in Spamalot. Sorry, their performances in Spamalott. They did go by her. She. Her. At the time during Spamalot. But when Sara Ramirez was playing the lady of the Lake at that time and during Tony season, there was a lot of talk that they were not going to win because they missed so many performances that nominators and voters had to go see. And they were nominated and they did win. So keep that in mind. I do ultimately think Megan and Jen get in. I think Helen J. Shen is knocking at that door. This is a category that could end up being six. If Helen. Helen could knock out, I can see Helen knocking out Megan or knocking out Jasmine. I don't really see Helen knocking out Jen. And I say this after saying that I thought. I think that Jasmine's a lock, but I'm also ready for some major heartbreak. So what Helen J. Shen has going for her is a, she's wonderful in her show, but she is also the female lead of the best musical frontrunner, and that's very helpful. It could end up being that Darren ends up being the performance face of the show and Helen not getting nominated could then end up leading towards Darren winning and then winning musical because that continues the underdog narrative that maybe Happy ending has been feeding on for a while. Rightfully so. They have been. They had. They are doing well now, but they were an underdog for so long and people still don't trust their. Their chances, which is crazy to me. But yes, I think Audra, Nicole, I'm gonna go again with my heart. Audra, Nicole, Jasmine, Megan and Jen. If it's six, Helen gets in there. If Helen has to knock anybody out, it's Megan and Jasmine. But I'm sticking with my five. I'm sticking with my five. Best book of a musical, maybe Happy ending, Dead Outlaw, Death Becomes Her, Locks in My Eyes, followed by Operation Mincemeat followed by I'm gonna say Pirates. Rupert Holmes for Pirates. Not because I love it, but because I usually when a Revisal has an eligible book and it's relatively well received, that book gets nominated. Doesn't mean that it's a frontrunner for musical. Douglas Carter Bean was nominated for his book for Cinderella that did not win Revival. David Henry Hwang was nominated for his book for Flower Drum Song that wasn't even nominated for Revival. I just think I have a weird feeling that it gets in for book here. If it doesn't, it will be either Real Women have Curves or Just In Time, but unclear. I feel most confident in maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw and Death Becomes Our Mincemeat. I feel very strong with. I don't think it's getting knocked out, but again, we're sort of preparing ourselves for shocks here. But that's. That's. Yeah, I would say that's my five right now. Maybe. Happy ending, Dead Outlaw. Death Becomes Her. Operation Mincemeat. And then Pirates with Real Women have Curves knocking on the door. And just in time, right behind. Real Women have Curves. For best score, I have maybe Happy Ending and did Outlaw with a Bullet. I then have Real Women Have Curves. I then have Operation Mincemeat. And I used to have Boop. But now I have Death Becomes her with Boop possibly kicking out either Death Becomes her or Real Women have Curves. Death Becomes her was a score that got kind of dragged a bit during previews. It got Tags have been in reviews saying, oh, it's not as good as the book. And since the cast recording came out, there are some songs that I skipped still but there are other songs that I remember seeing in the theater going like, that was cute. And I'm now fully obsessed. I've always been obsessed with Tell Me Ernest. I am more positive on for the gays. It's not an obsession, but I am more positive on it. I love let's Run Away Together. I love Falling Apart. I love if you want perfection. I even really, really like Alive Forever. And what's Ernest's song? The Plan. The Plan is cute, it's fun, has a lot of good wordplay. I think people are getting more up on that score. And then all of the content of Julia Madison and Noel Carey coming out, talking about their score, about their process, and talking about the intricacies of the lyrics and all the inside jokes and the double entendres. I think it's helping people understand just how much craft is actually in it. Even if it's not a light in the piazza or producers or dirty around scoundrels for them. In terms of score, a lot more people are having respect for it, which I appreciate. And I think that Nolan and Julia are so fucking talented and so smart and so funny. And yes, I know them from Emerson, but I haven't seen either of them in years. So this is not personal bias. This is just objectively, I think they're very good. I think a lot of their work on Death Becomes her is good. And I think a lot more people in the community are even higher on this score than I am. Like, I was sort of mid ish on it when I saw it in November. I'm now halfway between mid and love on this score. There are songs that I love, songs that I like, songs that I'm on. But there are people who have more prominence in the community than I do who are really big on this score and love Julia and Noel. So I think that helps. I really do. So once again, I'm saying maybe Happy ending. Dead Outlaw. Real Women have Curves, Operation Mincemeat. And Death Becomes her, with Boop possibly knocking out real women or death becomes her. 4 Best musical revival. I have Sunset Boulevard Gypsy, Floyd Collins, and Pirates. I think if anything gets knocked out, it'll be Pirates for Once Upon a Mattress. But I don't. I don't buy it. I think it's. I think it's those four. Sunset Boulevard, Gypsy, Floyd Collins, Pirates, Best Play revival. The only two I feel confident in are Yellowface and Eureka Day. I'm gonna say Glengarry Glen Ross because it's still running. It's a big fat Hit. It's a Pulitzer Prize winning play. And for fourth, because we have to have a fourth. I'm gonna say out of my butt. Romeo and Juliet, of all things. Especially if Kit does get a nomination for best Actor. Our Town is an equal classic. It got the better reviews mostly. Romeo and Juliet might be remembered for having made more of an impression and taking more chances. I don't know anyone who remembers this last revival of Our Town, let alone remembers it fondly. And I am somebody who did not like this Romeo and Juliet, but there are people who did and we all remember it. And it was successful, it made money, it was a financial hit. And I think that's something to consider. And it's been getting nominated rather frequently, which just again, it just sort of shows you that there are people around who. Who. Who give it support. And so critical reception is not indicative of Tony chances. Look at Wicked. Best play. Oh, Mary. English Purpose. John Proctor is the villain. The hills of California. If anything is vulnerable here, it's probably the hills of California, sadly. And it would be knocked out for either Cult of Love or Good Night and Good Luck. Again. I gotta go with my heart, with my gut here, which is that Good Night and Good Luck is successful. It has themes that are relevant to right now, but it is ultimately a high ticket movie star affair and is also kind of dull. I said in my review I liked it more than I thought I would. That doesn't mean I liked it. That means there were parts of it that I liked. But there were a lot of parts that I was falling asleep during. And I have two friends who walked out in during intermission. There was no intermission. Two friends who walked out in the middle of the show. Last week, one friend texted me as I was walking into Floyd Collins and he said, I just left halfway through Good night and Good luck. And I was like, you're the second person to tell me that. So, yes, I'm staying locked in for my best play, Best musical. Alrighty. What I thought were my top three locks for a while have actually switched. My top three locks now are maybe happy ending, which I still think is the frontrunner to win Dead Outlaw, which I've been saying since day one and Death becomes her. I did not think Death becomes her was I thought Death becomes her. Had a solid chance of getting in, but I wasn't confident on it, let alone it being a lock. I now think it's a lock. Weirdly enough, I think those three are locks. I thought Operation Mincemeat was a lock up until about two weeks ago. But again, as I said earlier with my email to my friend who, you know, votes at the Tonys. Sorry, I don't want you guys to think that it's one friend. I actually have, like, several friends who are Tony voters, and I speak to about three or four of them in and out. This is one who I hadn't spoken to since January, something like that. We ran into each other at the ninth Avenue Saloon a few weeks ago and we really have each other's emails, but not each other's phone numbers. And he emailed me and was asking about my thoughts and I gave him my predictions and he gave me his. He's not a nominator. He's a voter. So he doesn't matter what he thinks, what the nominees might be, because he doesn't get to choose that. But I had told him, like, this is what I've been hearing about stuff and mincemeat. I've been getting more cold responses from people lately. There's again, a fandom that is loud and it's wild. And I have had also people go see mincemeat. I really love it. But I thought it was a lock up until about two weeks ago. And now I think it is more just a very strong likelihood. I still have it in here. I still have maybe happy ending. Dead Outlaw Death becomes her Operation Mincemeat. And then my fifth one. I am throwing a huge curveball in here. Huge. And saying real women have curves. I don't know how much I actually believe that, so much as I'm throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing if it sticks. Because there is a groundswell of love for this show that feels very organic and within the community, more so than Just in time, which is very much more of a love for Groff now. Just in time could end up surprising. I also think Buena Vista Social Club is very likely to knock out real women have Curves. What keeps me from saying that completely is I don't know if I see Buena Vista Social Club getting nominated for book or even director. And it's really difficult for me to say that it has a lock on a best musical nomination when I don't see it getting those two nominations. Now you can get nominated for best musical without either of those. It's happened. It's rare, and I don't know how much I buy it. We shall see. We shall see. Maybe it's the Illinois of the season where it gets choreography and text stuff and obviously Natalie Venetia Balcon and musical, but not Book or director. It can happen. I'm just, it's keeping me from saying, oh, yes, it's a lock just because of reviews. Yeah, I'm gonna say that. I'm gonna say maybe happy ending. Dead outlaw. Death becomes her. Operation Mincemeat. Real women have curves, but know that I say real women with the absolute knowledge that Buena Vista Social Club or just in time can knock it out. And that's where we're at. Those are my predictions. I hope you guys enjoyed this. I hope that I didn't embarrass myself too much and I hope that you enjoy the nominations when they come out on Thursday morning. This is going to be dated in about 40 hours, so whoops. But yes, that's it for now. Join me for Rachel and Will Anderson, AKA the theater lovers responses to the real nominations Thursday afternoon. And it's been a trip. We've been, we've been through the thick of it for so long. But we're coming out of the woods. Are we out of the woods yet already out of the woods yet. Who do I want to close this out with today? I'm thinking we've done Natalie, Venetia Balcon. We've done Megan, Jen. How about we do? Because I'm not sure of her likelihood of getting nominated and if she does get nominated, it'll be a great way to celebrate her and if she doesn't, it's a great way to honor her. We're gonna close out with Ms. Helen. Sorry, Ms. Helen J. Shen. And that will be our, our diva for this week. So yes, we'll see you guys in about a day and a half for the Tony nomination. Reactions. If you like the podcast. Nice. Five star rating or review is helpful. Again, you guys have been killing it with reviews. We're currently at 3:08 on Apple Podcasts if you want to join the Discord Channel, I'll put the link in the description box. If that doesn't work, you can message me on Instagram. Follow me on Instagram at Matt Koplik Usual spelling And that is it for this one. Take it away, Helen Byee was. It'll be okay. It'll be okay. A robot does what she always does. It's the only way. It'll be okay. You know you're stronger than you think. You know you're made to take a lot and if it doesn't come for free, well, that's the way that it, it has to be.