Podcast Summary

Broadway Breakdown with Matt Koplik

Episode: 2025 Tony Nominations: Final Predictions
Date: April 29, 2025

Episode Overview

In this highly anticipated episode, Matt Koplik reveals his final predictions for the 2025 Tony Award nominations. With his signature no-nonsense, opinionated style and deep insider knowledge, Matt breaks down each major category, shares buzz from industry circles, and peppers the episode with quotes, tangents, and Broadway gossip. He emphasizes these aren't always his personal picks but a synthesis of community buzz, Tony voter insights, box office trends, and his own reviews as the big announcement looms just hours away.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Tony Nomination Process & Community Pulse

• Discord and Data Tracking: Matt plugs his Discord channel (currently 266+ members) where fans are pooling predictions and analyzing precursor award data. He stresses no true "precursors" exist for the Tonys due to different voting pools and objectives, both for nominators and voters ([02:30]).
• Eligibility Rulings: Matt notes that last-minute eligibility decisions can drastically swing predictions, citing how Off-Broadway runs affect Drama Desk/Outer Critics Circle chances ([05:00]).
• Prediction Approach: Matt blends personal viewings, industry word-of-mouth, Tony voter friends' perspectives, box office health, and critical response. He responds directly to listener requests to start with technical categories and "move our way up" ([10:20]).

2. Design & Technical Categories

Sound Design of a Musical

• Predicted Nominees:
  • Sunset Boulevard (likely winner)
  • Maybe Happy Ending
  • Floyd Collins
  • Dead Outlaw
  • Buena Vista Social Club
• On the Bubble: Just in Time, Death Becomes Her, Smash
• Insight: Tech nominations often reward innovation. Special mention to Floyd Collins for execution:

  "When the call happens, the sound design is very important to that. And it was, I felt, executed flawlessly." ([14:55])

Lighting Design of a Musical

• Predicted Locks:
  • Maybe Happy Ending
  • Sunset Boulevard
  • Floyd Collins
• Likely In: Just in Time, Dead Outlaw
• Bubble: Pirates, Operation Mincemeat, Death Becomes Her
• Notable Observation: Visual mood and "shadowy" designs tend to do well. ([23:20])

Costume Design of a Musical

• Locks:
  • Death Becomes Her (Matt calls this the winner)
  • Boop
  • Pirates
• Contenders: Buena Vista Social Club, Gypsy, with a nod to "never count out" designer Kathryn Zuber (Just in Time).
• Community Buzz: Death Becomes Her sees an "ebullient" surge; Gypsy is getting colder word-of-mouth:

  "People in the community... have been talking to me about Gypsy in a semi hushed, 'I didn't love it' tone." ([40:00])

Scenic Design of a Musical

• Selections:
  • Sunset Boulevard
  • Maybe Happy Ending
  • Just in Time
  • Death Becomes Her
  • Pirates
• Comments: Effusive praise for Sunset's cinematic design; Maybe Happy Ending flagged as a probable winner. ([52:00])

3. Performance, Direction & Top Awards

Featured Actor and Actress in a Musical

• Matt's Locks and Wildcards:
  • Jack Malone (Operation Mincemeat) is Matt's most confident call and likely winner ([1:35:20]).
  • Danny Burstein (Gypsy), David Thaxton (Sunset Boulevard).
  • Tom Sesma (Dead Outlaw), Brooks Ashmanskas (Smash), with Taylor Trensch (Floyd Collins) as a possible surprise.
  • For Actress, Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club) and Justina Machado (Real Women Have Curves) are strong favorites.
  • Bubble: Jinx Monsoon (Pirates), Joy Woods (Gypsy), Lea Salonga (Old Friends).

Lead Actor and Actress in a Musical

• Actors (Four "Locks"):

  • Jonathan Groff (Just In Time)
  • Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins)
  • Tom Francis (Sunset Boulevard)
  • Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending)

• 5th Slot: Andrew Durand (Dead Outlaw) is Matt’s pick, but David Hyde Pierce (Pirates) could sneak in due to star value ([1:51:30]).

• Actresses:

  • Audra McDonald (Gypsy), Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Boulevard), Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop) are locks;
  • Megan Hilty & Jen Simard (Death Becomes Her), Helen J. Shen (Maybe Happy Ending) may battle for final slots.

Director of a Musical

• Matt's Picks:
  • Maybe Happy Ending, Sunset Boulevard, Dead Outlaw, Operation Mincemeat, Death Becomes Her.
• Dark Horses: George C. Wolfe (Gypsy), Alex Timbers (Just in Time), Tina Landau (Floyd Collins).
  • “Never underestimate Tina Landau’s ability to get nominated. She got nominated for Spongebob and Mother Play—she is well liked.” ([1:13:00])

Best Musical

• Matt’s Final Five:
  • Maybe Happy Ending (top pick and probable winner)
  • Dead Outlaw
  • Death Becomes Her
  • Operation Mincemeat
  • Real Women Have Curves
• Just in Time and Buena Vista Social Club are close contenders, but lack of nods in Book/Director may hurt their chances ([2:14:00]).
• Death Becomes Her has gone from long-shot to "absolute lock" in the last weeks, per Matt's gossip and observations:

  "The vibe is more like Death Becomes Her could actually over perform with nomination morning." ([45:30])

4. General Industry Commentary & Inside Buzz

• The Community on Gypsy, Death Becomes Her, Mincemeat:

  • Death Becomes Her is surging due to a clever social media push, imminent cast album, and renewed critical affection.
  • Gypsy is suffering from underwhelmed word-of-mouth even among those who wanted to love it:

    "There is love for it online, but not as Much in the community." ([41:30])

  • Operation Mincemeat: Divisive among the Broadway crowd; strong London buzz, but not universally embraced.
  • Real Women Have Curves and Maybe Happy Ending benefit from organic support, especially within industry circles.
  • Pirates gets praise mostly for its design, with acting categories less certain.

• Pattern Recognition:
  Matt repeatedly notes the Tonys often surprise with nominations in technical categories (e.g., simple but effective sets, designers who consistently get nominated like Zuber or Landau).

5. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Matt on the unpredictability of nominations:

  "The featured acting categories this year in both plays and musicals is truly the wild West. Anything, anyone could or could not get nominated." ([1:21:20])

• On being transparent about buzz:

  "You guys ask me why I feel a way that I do or I predict the way that I do… and that is one thing people are saying: there’s sort of a hushed tone of ‘I didn’t care for [Gypsy].’” ([41:30])

• On Death Becomes Her’s resurgence:

  "For the last two weeks, everyone I've been speaking to has kind of upped their love for Death Becomes Her… Everyone is listening to [the album] now, everyone's enjoying it." ([45:40])

• Matt on the Tony Nominators' mindset:

  “The whole thing about the Tony Awards is that they try to switch it up – but this is not the Oscars, where once you’re in, you’re in. Nominators get just three years, and they scatter the new people in. So it’s a different vibe every year.” ([10:10])

• On his own method:

  “This is not necessarily what I would personally nominate, but this is me trying to figure out what the nominators would nominate.” ([07:50])

Timestamps for Notable Segments

• [02:30] – Discord & statistics for Tony forecasts
• [14:55] – Matt explains criteria for sound design nominations
• [23:20] – Lighting Design trends and analysis
• [40:00] – Community buzz on Death Becomes Her and Gypsy
• [52:00] – Why simple sets can land nominations
• [1:13:00] – Director of a Musical, dark horses, and Landau’s history
• [1:21:20] – The unpredictability of featured actor/supporting actress categories
• [1:35:20] – Jack Malone’s “lock” status in Featured Actor, and possibility of surprises
• [1:51:30] – Lead Actor in a Musical, Groff vs. Jordan vs. Francis vs. Criss
• [2:14:00] – Final Best Musical picks: rising and falling fortunes
• [End ~2:20:00] – Listener reminders, closing diva selection (Helen J. Shen)

Tone & Language

Matt’s commentary is direct, passionate, often sardonic, full of Broadway in-jokes ("If you don't look and learn from your history, you are doomed to repeat it" ([44:30])), and peppered with shoutouts to listeners, specific Tony voters, and inside references. He’s candid about his own taste and how it may or may not align with Tony trends, and is not shy about running through tangents, all in the spirit of informed, energetic theatre discourse.

Concluding Notes

With nominations hours away, Matt leaves listeners prepped to watch the Tony nominations drop armed with nuance, context, and drama both onstage and off, reminding everyone:

"This is going to be dated in about 40 hours, so whoops." ([2:20:00])

He'll be back with guests to react to the real nominations—likely with more spilt tea and strong opinions on whatever shocks emerge.

For more predictions, community chat, and follow-ups:

• Join the Discord discussion (link in show notes/Instagram @MattKoplik)
• Subscribe for reactions later this week with The Theater Lovers