Broadway Breakdown: 2025 Tony Nominations – Final Predictions
Podcast Information:
- Title: Broadway Breakdown
- Host: Matt Koplik
- Episode: 2025 Tony Nominations: Final Predictions
- Release Date: April 29, 2025
Introduction
In this episode of Broadway Breakdown, Matt Koplik dives deep into his final predictions for the 2025 Tony Award nominations. Recorded shortly after reviewing shows like Floyd Collins, Pirates of Penzance, and others, Matt provides a comprehensive analysis of various categories, backed by his seasoned insights and engagement with the Broadway community.
Overview of Tony Nominations Predictions
Matt begins by setting the stage for his predictions, emphasizing the diverse factors that influence Tony nominations beyond just precursors like Drama Desk or Outer Critics Circle awards. He notes,
"There are no real such things as precursors for the Tonys. Again, it's very different voting pools and every voting body has their own what's looking for objective when putting together nominations." (01:17)
He encourages listeners to join the Discord channel to engage with fellow theater enthusiasts and stay updated on the latest buzz surrounding the nominations.
Category-by-Category Predictions
1. Sound Design
Locked Nominees:
- Sunset Boulevard
- Happy Ending
- Floyd Collins
- Dead Outlaw
- Buena Vista Social Club
Matt highlights the intricate soundscapes of these productions, particularly praising how Dead Outlaw leverages sound to enhance its narrative.
"Died Outlaw being an audible theater show, the sound of that show is very important. I feel like that's intricate to its success." (02:30)
On the Bubble:
- Smash
- Just in Time
- Death Becomes Her
Matt discusses how Death Becomes Her is gaining traction post-release of its cast album, potentially boosting its chances in technical categories.
2. Lighting Design
Locked Nominees:
- Stranger Things
- Dorian Gray
- Good Night and Good Luck
- Hills of California
- McNeil
He emphasizes the role of projections and multimedia elements in shows like Good Night and Good Luck and Stranger Things.
"Projections are very important in Good Night and Good Luck. It's a multimedia kind of show and since the projections are included with are now deemed included with the lighting, I think that works in its favor." (05:15)
On the Bubble:
- Pirates of Penzance
- Operation Mincemeat
- Death Becomes Her
3. Costume Design
Locked Nominees:
- O Mary
- Dorian Gray
These shows stand out for their vibrant and period-specific costumes, aligning well with Tony voters’ preferences.
On the Bubble:
- Stranger Things
- Good Night and Good Luck
- Hills of California
- English
Matt notes the evolving trends towards contemporary and nuanced costume designs in recent productions.
4. Scenic Design
Locked Nominees:
- Stranger Things
- Hills of California
- Dorian Gray
- Eureka Day
- McNeil
He praises the multimedia integration and intricate set pieces in these shows, which enhance the overall storytelling.
5. Orchestrations
Locked Nominees:
- Happy Ending
- Dead Outlaw
On the Bubble:
- Buena Vista Social Club
- Just in Time
- Sunset Boulevard
Matt discusses how fresh arrangements and revitalized scores in these productions make them strong contenders for nominations.
6. Choreography
Locked Nominees:
- Buena Vista Social Club
On the Bubble:
- Boop
- Death Becomes Her
- Smash
- Pirates of Penzance
He highlights the dynamic and innovative choreography in Buena Vista Social Club, positioning it as a frontrunner.
7. Direction
Locked Nominees:
- Happy Ending
- Sunset Boulevard
- Dead Outlaw
On the Bubble:
- Operation Mincemeat
- Death Becomes Her
Matt underscores the visionary direction in these productions, particularly noting Tina Landau’s potential nomination for Floyd Collins.
8. Featured Actor in a Play
Predictions:
- Conrad Rich for Omar
- Francis Zhu for Yellowface
- Bill Burr for Glengarry Glen Ross
- Bob Odenkirk
- Kieran Culkin
Matt highlights standout performances, especially emphasizing Conrad Rich’s compelling portrayal in Omar.
9. Featured Actress in a Musical
Locked Nominees:
- Natalie Venetia Belcon for Buena Vista Social Club
- Justina Machado for Real Women Have Curves
On the Bubble:
- Jinx Monsoon for Pirates of Penzance
- Joy Woods for Gypsy
- Lea Salonga for Old Friends
- Bernadette Peters for Gypsy
Matt juxtaposes the strong performances in new productions with veteran stars like Bernadette Peters, whose nomination would be a significant nod after a long hiatus.
10. Best Book of a Musical
Locked Nominees:
- Happy Ending
- Dead Outlaw
- Death Becomes Her
- Operation Mincemeat
- Pirates of Penzance
Matt predicts that books which seamlessly integrate narrative and character development, like Happy Ending and Dead Outlaw, will lead the pack.
11. Best Musical Revival
Locked Nominees:
- Sunset Boulevard
- Gypsy
- Floyd Collins
- Pirates of Penzance
He analyzes the revival market, noting the enduring appeal of classics like Gypsy alongside innovative reinventions such as Sunset Boulevard.
12. Best Play Revival
Locked Nominees:
- Yellowface
- Eureka Day
- Glengarry Glen Ross
- Once Upon a Mattress
- Romeo and Juliet
Matt discusses the critical and commercial successes of acclaimed plays like Yellowface and beloved classics like Glengarry Glen Ross.
13. Best Musical
Locked Nominees:
- Happy Ending
- Dead Outlaw
- Death Becomes Her
On the Bubble:
- Operation Mincemeat
- Real Women Have Curves
14. Best Play
Locked Nominees:
- Happy Ending
- Dead Outlaw
- Death Becomes Her
- Operation Mincemeat
- Real Women Have Curves
Overall Insights and Community Reactions
Throughout the episode, Matt emphasizes the fluid nature of Tony nominations, influenced by ongoing performances, critical acclaim, and the shifting sentiments within the Broadway community. He shares insights from his personal experiences, interactions with Tony voters, and feedback from listeners, highlighting how shows like Death Becomes Her are gaining momentum post-release of their cast recordings.
"People who are on the fence are now liking it more. People who didn't like the score the first time are now having a total 180 epiphany." (03:50)
Matt also addresses the unpredictability of certain nominations, noting how popularity among Tony voters can sometimes diverge from broader critical and audience reception.
Conclusion
As Tonys approach, Matt Koplik's meticulous analysis provides listeners with a thorough roadmap of potential nominees across all categories. His blend of personal opinion, community feedback, and understanding of Tony nomination dynamics offers a valuable perspective for Broadway enthusiasts eagerly awaiting the nomination announcements.
"I hope you guys enjoy the nominations when they come out on Thursday morning." (85:45)
Matt wraps up by teasing upcoming episodes, including reactions and discussions with guests Will and Rachel from The Theater Lovers.
Notable Quotes
-
Matt Koplik [01:17]:
"Hello all you theater lovers both out and proud on the DL and welcome back to Broadway Breakdown."
-
Matt Koplik [02:30]:
"Dead Outlaw being an audible theater show, the sound of that show is very important. I feel like that's intricate to its success."
-
Matt Koplik [05:15]:
"Projections are very important in Good Night and Good Luck. It's a multimedia kind of show and since the projections are included with are now deemed included with the lighting, I think that works in its favor."
-
Matt Koplik [03:50]:
"People who are on the fence are now liking it more. People who didn't like the score the first time are now having a total 180 epiphany."
-
Matt Koplik [85:45]:
"I hope you guys enjoy the nominations when they come out on Thursday morning."
Join the Conversation
Matt invites listeners to join the Broadway Breakdown Discord Channel to discuss predictions, share insights, and engage with a community of passionate theater fans. He encourages leaving a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts to support the show, which is rapidly growing its audience.
"If you like the podcast, nice five-star rating or review is helpful." (82:15)
Stay tuned for the next episode, where Matt will react to the actual Tony nominations alongside guests Will and Rachel from The Theater Lovers.
Follow Matt Koplik:
- Instagram: @koplok.us
Join the Discord Channel:
- [Link in Podcast Description]
Enjoy your Tony season, and may the best productions earn their deserved accolades!