Cynthia Erivo (38:21)

Billy, I beg to dinner with you. How do you mean? You're the top. Yeah, you're an arrow collar. You're the top. You're a Coolidge dollar. You're the nimble tread of the feet of Freddy St.

Matt Koplik (38:37)

I think you're on mute.

Cynthia Erivo (38:39)

Workday starting to sound the same.

Matt Koplik (38:42)

I think you're on mute.

Cynthia Erivo (38:43)

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Matt Koplik (40:38)

And we back next up, we have best orchestrations. This could go a number of ways because we have orchestrations that are eligible for the expanded arrangements for Floyd Collins and last five years Sunset Boulevard was deemed eligible for orchestrations, which I wrongfully said they were not the last time we spoke on this. But I've since been rightfully informed that they are now eligible. And I've talked about this before, with orchestrations, you kind of have to do a mishmash of what are your frontrunners for score. What are jukebox musicals that do brand spank and new arrangements of songs in a way that's objectively noticeable and then revivals that do brand spank a new arrangement of stuff. So you know, for last last year there was Merrily, which was nominated and won. I can't really rightfully say that it was a, you know, mind blowingly brain spankingly new arrangement, but what have you. Illinois Jukebox, Hell's Kitchen jukebox that all sort of, you know, quote unquote did new things with its music. And then what did we have for the rest of orchestrations? It was Illinois, it was Hell's Kitchen, it was Merrily We Roll along. And we also had Here We Go stereophonic. That's an anomaly. But you know, that was an original score nominee. And then the Outsiders. Oh, so fascinating the best score winner last year was Suffs and that did not have an orchestrations nomination. So fuck my drag on that. But if you look further back, you'll sort of see the same thing, right? So 2023 we had Kimberly Akimbo nominated, which did win score. Some Like It Hot, which is an anomaly for a winner of score because sometimes, you know, a score nominee will win orchestrations but not score. That also happened with Thoroughly Modern Millie. So you know, 1920s brass band arrangements make sense. And Juliet and New York, New York jukebox musicals that are due. You know, they're doing new arrangements of those songs and then shucked. Another Best Score nominee, 2022, Girl from the north country, which is the winner. Jukebox musical that does a new style of arrangements on Bob Dylan Music Company, which was a brand spanking new revival. And then MJ again, another jukebox musical doing new things with music we know. Six, which won best score. And Strange Leaf, which was probably the runner up for best score. We can look at 2019, we have Hadestown winning Orchestrations, which did win score. Tootsie, which was probably the runner up for best score. Kiss Me Kate in Oklahoma, two revivals doing funky new things with its score and then Ain't Too Proud again, jukebox musical doing funky things. So you get a little bit of these blends here. So with that in mind for orchestrations, I currently have maybe Happy Ending and Dead Outlaw as my what I would call my two locks. I think that they're the most likely winners for best score and thus I have them in for orchestrations. Buena Vista Social Club and Just In Time are two jukebox musicals that do new spanking arrangements for music that has already pre existed. And then Sunset Boulevard I have for orchestrations after that. What the. The four that I sort of have on the bubble. I'm going to say three. The three that I have on the bubble are Death Becomes her last five years and Floyd Collins. Of those three, I think that last five years is probably the most likely to sneak in here. Jason R. Brown is very well respected in the community and Tony nominators do like rewarding him. How they feel about the revival might affect how likely it is that last five years gets in for orchestrations. I think that there's probably more love for the Floyd Collins revival than the last five years. And also it's a way to recognize Floyd Collins score since it won't be eligible for scores because it's a revival due to classics. And then Death becomes. I think that the orchestrations for Death becomes are fucking slap. And they should get a nomination for bringing the cowbell back. There's a cowbell in the Tell Me Ernest and Tell Me Ernest reprise tracks, and it is incredible. Gunkle and I, Adam Ellsbury and I talk about it all the time in our texts of, like, that big fat fucking cowbell and how hot it is. But I think that that's a possibility, not a likelihood as of right now. Yeah, maybe Happy ending, Dead Outlaw, Buona Vista Social Club. Just in time. And Sunset Boulevard. I would probably make those my. Yeah, those are my five Orchestration nominations. I think if I were to swap anything out for Floyd Collins or Death becomes her in terms of, like, what I think is on the bubble, it would maybe be Sunset or Buena Vista Social Club. Yeah, that's. I think those are the five I'm sticking with. And those are the two with last five years of sort of third on the bubble. I have for orchestrations choreography. With the new eligibility rulings, it's been deemed, from what I understand from the discord, that Smash is now eligible for choreography. So with that in mind, I have Buena Vista Social Club, which I think will win. Boop. Which I think is a very strong runner up. Death becomes her. Smash and Pirates. I would call those R5. If I were to say anything was on the bubble, it would be just in time. I thought maybe Gypsy would be on the bubble with Camille Brown, but the Cheater Rivera nominations just came out, and while Kevin Sherlock. Is that his name, who plays Tulsa, was nominated, the cast was not nominated and Camille was not nominated. And again, this is not about. Oh, same voting body so much as it's like, huh, if the dancing community didn't love her work, what does that say about the choreographers in the Tony nominating committee? Unclear. It could be a big fat nothing. And she does get nominated. We've had these things happen before. We're. People don't get nominated for two or three different bodies and then ends up winning the fucker at the end. But it's just something to think about, right? We take in as many context clues as we possibly can. So I'm sticking with Buena Vista. Boop. Pirates, Death becomes her and Smash, I think those are the five the. If I were to say anything could get kicked out of here, it would be Smash and it would be for just in time or for Gypsy. Maybe real women have curves. Maybe. But I'm more likely to have a wonderful world get in there for choreography before real women have curves. Unless Nominators just are so over the moon for real. Women have Curves, which could happen, but I'm not totally convinced for direction of a play. I have O Mary Hills of California. John Proctor is the villain, purpose and English, which is spoiler alert. That's also my five nominees for best play. I think it's going to line up immediately. If I were to say anything's on the bubble, it would be Kip Williams for Dorian Gray or Leigh Silverman for Yellowface. Lee is very well liked. Yellowface is having a resurgence due to its PBS broadcast. They've been doing private screenings of it throughout the city with people in the community with Tony nominators. It could give it that nice pearly, victorious boost. Unclear, but as of right. Right now, I just think that this is. I feel like this is a solid five. It's a diverse five. It's a well liked, well critically respected five. Dorian Gray. If it were to get nominated, I think it would. It would be the rare case of a play getting a director nomination without a best play or best revival nomination. Similar to To Kill a Mockingbird or Network. It happens. It happens. It almost never happens with musicals, but it can sometimes happen with plays. And if any play this season is going to get a director nomination, but not a best play nomination, it will be Dorian Gray. So I think that's sort of something to be on the lookout for for director of a musical. I currently have maybe happy Ending. Sunset Boulevard, Dead Outlaw. Those are my three, in my opinion, locks here and then what I have sort of uncomfortable but bubbly ground are Operation Mincemeat and Death Becomes her. There is a world in which death becomes her. Super overperforms on Thursday and Operation Mincemeat super underperforms. There are a lot of prognosticators who think that Mincemeat will ultimately get kicked out of director, get kicked out of musical, get kicked out of score and book. Really believing that just in time and Real Women have Curves are gunning for those musical slots, kicking out Mincemeat, that Real Women have Curves is gunning for that score slot, kicking up Mincemeat. I'm a little less convinced of that right now. Again, there is a little bit of a home court hometown pride that Tonys will have when it comes to musicals especially. But if there is a British musical that they enjoy and they're not necessarily worried about what's going to win, just what will be nominated, there's less concern about that. There's usually a British musical that gets in there like an N. Juliet A Matilda, a Groundhog Day, Billy Elliot. Obviously winning. But people are less nervous about British musicals getting nominated. It's more about the winning that we have to talk about. But for right now, I am, I'm feeling okay about Mincemeat's chances right now. I think that the tide hasn't officially turned with it. It's doing well. It got strong reviews. It's not hated in the Broadway community, I'll tell you that. It's more that with all of the hype from London and the strong reviews and people and the fan base being so, let's just be honest, very loud about it. I've spoken to a few folks who walked out and were just very confused by all of that. Similar vibes to Gypsy. I'm not going to say who, I'm not going to say what their roles are, but it doesn't, actually doesn't matter who I say their roles are because the truth is that it's everyone all over the place. It's directors, writers, actors, press teams, producers. I will actually, the one thing I will say is that actors have been more mixed on Gypsy. Producers have been very mixed on Operation Mincemeat. And maybe it's people looking at their own and going, oh, you know, I want my project to do well. But I mean, these are also producers I've spoken to who don't have anything this season or what they do have this season is an indirect competition with Mincemeat. So that's just something to think about. I do still think it'll ultimately get in. I just think that its chances of winning much outside of maybe Jack Malone are weaker than its fandom realizes. So keep that in mind. On the bubble, though, of possible directing nominations, the two I have at the forefront are George Seawolf for Gypsy and Alex Timbers for Just In Time with a very dark horse in Tina Landau for Floyd Collins. Never, ever discount Tina Landau's ability to get nominated. She got nominated for Mother Play. That's a goddamn feat. She got nominated for spongebob. She won't get nominated for Redwood. She could get nominated for Floyd Collins. Floyd Collins is a well liked musical in the theater community. It's now on Broadway and it's not a disaster in the way that Broadway world would have you believe. If you listen to my review, you know, that I really, really enjoyed it. But also I know a lot of other people who really, really enjoyed it. And you know, Tina is well liked. Lincoln center is a well liked institution. It's never underestimate Tina Lando. And never underestimate Lincoln center either, their ability to get nominations. In the same way when people said don't count on Kathryn Zuber. She tends to get nominated. It's true. It's true with, with both of these. So I think Floyd Collins for director in a musical is a dark horse, but it is a possibility. So do not be surprised if you see her name pop up. I, I would be more likely to put money on George C. Wolfe for Gypsy or Alex Timbers in just a Time before Tina. I'm just putting it on everybody's radar. If it happens, don't say, don't say I didn't warn ya. But as of right now, I'm going to say maybe happy ending, which is a lock. Sunset, which is a lock and I think is probably going to win. Dead Outlaw, I find a lock. Mincemeat, very likely, but not a sure thing. And then death becomes her. Chris Catelli for Death becomes her. Chris Catelli, who is well liked, who's been working for a long time. And again, the attitude on death becomes her has come back around to quite ebullient. So I think that there's a world in which it does quite well with nominations. Next up, featured actor in a play. Okay, I'm going to say this right here, right now. The featured acting categories this year in both plays and musicals is truly the Wild West. Anything anyone could or could not get nominated. People who you thought were total locks to win even may not make it in. Because I have no idea how 52 people, only half of whom I've met are going to feel about these performances. Especially when it's now been confirmed to me that the Tony nominators, shows and actors and writers cannot. It's no longer within a three vote difference for a show to expand a category. A tie now has to be an actual tie. It can't be. Oh, there's a three vote difference. It's got to be a literal tie now. So that means there could be some random nominees getting in there because of splitting nominations where no 20 people wanted this person, 20 people wanted that person. And then the person who had 21 gets in randomly. So. So we're all flying blind. And I am. This is the one where I'm going off of my personal feelings on these performances as well as just sort of what Tony nominators have liked in the past and just general impressions. I'm getting featured actor in a play off the bat. I'm gonna say Conrad Rick Amora. I'm gonna say Francis Zhu, Yellowface. Was very well received and Francis was definitely considered the highlight of the show. It's getting a revival nomination and they are timing out this PBS broadcast perfectly. Again, this is a pearly Victoria situation and I think that's going to benefit Francis more than anyone in yellowface. After that, it gets a little trickier. There is a world in which all three men from Glengarry, Glen Ross, down the line get nominated. Bill Burr, Bob Odenkirk, Kieran Culkin. I am currently having them in my five. I feel less sure about Kieran and Bob. I feel more sure about Bill. And if Kieran or Bob don't get in on the bubble, I have James Scully for Omar, Glen Davis for purpose, and Gabriel Ebert for John Proctor as the villain. Now, would I like Andrew Burnout for Othello to get nominated? Absolutely I would. I don't know if it's gonna happen. It's a little easier when your show has a bigger footprint on the nomination circuit. And I don't know if Othello's gonna have much of a footprint outside of actor and possibly revival. I think with purpose, Glen Davis has a good shot, especially now that his other co stars are in lead. Gabriel Ebert has a shot for John Proctor. We will get to that. James Scully has a shot if oh Mary overperforms. I think between the two, I would personally put in James over Conrad, but I think that Conrad is a. Conrad should be a Tony nominee by now. Here lies love. He should have been a Tony nominee and we all know it. We all know it. But he's. He is good in Omar. I liked him more downtown than I liked him uptown and I actually thought his replacement was really fucking good. But Conrad is well liked. He is in a fucking hit. He is the second biggest role in Omar. Dude also gets receives fellatio while doing a very dramatic monologue to God. And for me, I'm like, okay, yeah, that's. Here we go. That's a Tony nomination for you. So yes, I think Conrad, Bill Burr, Francis, Jew. And then I'm just gonna go with my cynical side and say Bob Odenkirk and Kieran Culkin with a possibility of Glen Davis, James Scully or Gabriel Ebert getting in there as well. Or instead of featured actress in a play. The only two true locks I I have right now are Jessica Hecht for Eureka Day and Kara Young for purpose, Similar to Tina Landau and Katherine Zuber. Don't count out Kara Young. She likes to get nominated. Getting nominated is what she does, especially in this category. I have mentioned in my review, she was out at the matinee that I saw Purpose. So I can't report on her performance. I can only report on the. Which I did not find to be my favorite role in the play. I'm sure she brings her Carrie youngness to it, and that helps. But Alana Arenas was the one who. I walked out of that theater going like, who the fuck is she? Get her a Tony nomination. And could it happen? It absolutely could happen. Tony nominators could go batshit crazy for Purpose. And my Lord, would I be thrilled if Alana Arenas got in. But I just don't think that's happening. I think it's Kari Young. After that, it's all sort of up in the air. I think Bianca Lee could get in for Omari. She's very good in the show, and having gone back to see her with Betty Gilpin, she's actually gotten even better and is very, very funny. So that I think she absolutely could get in again. If Omari overperforms, I think Tala Ash has a very good shot of getting in. And then I'm gonna say Finestrasa for John Proctor as the villain. Oh, and Tala Ash, by the way, is for English. Tala Ash had the most awards buzz when English was off Broadway. She got the most recognition for that production, and I think that gives her the best shot here. It is also the best role in the show. She is wonderful. The whole cast is wonderful, but she is also very wonderful. Finna. I feel like her character is really the backbone of the show, and that helps in an ensemble piece like this where you're not quite sure who you would nominate. If it's not Finna, it could be Amalia Yu for John Proctor as the villain, who I would argue feels more of a lead than Sadie Sink. But we'll get to that. This unfortunately means that I don't have anyone in my predictions from the hills of California. And it's true. Again, this is my cynical side showing Leanne Best or Helena Wilson could either get in for Hills of California. We'll see if that over performs on the day. Again, my cynical side is saying, no, I've got nobody from Othello, from Romeo and Juliet or Our Town. I have nobody from Stranger Things or from Good Night and Good Luck. This is. This is no one from Cult of Love. This is who I got. I do think Hecht and Cara are the locks again with Tala Ash and Bianca Lee is a very strong possibility. And then Finnestrasa is my gut response from John Proctor. As the villain. My hope somebody from Hills of California gets in. I'm again, I'm being cynical here. Featured actor in a musical I currently have, and I am once again flying blind. Here I have Jack Malone for Operation Mincemeat, Danny Burstein for Gypsy, David Thaxton for Sunset Boulevard, Tom Sesma for Dead Outlaw, and Brooks Ashmansk is for Smash. Brooks is so beloved, he has two shows this season. And he is one of the better things about Smash. If the nominating committee ends up just fully hating Smash, A, that means Camille Brown has a better shot of getting in for choreography for Gypsy over Josh Brigace for choreography. But also if they don't like Smash, that means Brooks is very vulnerable. But I think of all the things from Smash that could overcome negative feelings towards that show, Brooks is the one to do it. Jack, I feel very strong about. Jack is one of the few people in Featured that I absolutely am confident in their nomination and probably confident in their winning. Danny Burstein, I feel very confident being nominated for Gypsy. Herbie has almost always been nominated, except for one time. Otherwise, he's always been nominated. Danny is one of the better things of this production. Again, he's very beloved. I don't doubt his nomination. I don't. I'm not saying 100% here. I'm saying 100% for Jack Malone. I'm saying 90% for Danny, David Thaxton. I'm also saying 90% for Sunset Boulevard, Tom Sesma. I'm saying 85% for Dead Outlaw, Brooke Manskus. I'm saying 75% for Smash. Of any of the people. And again, I think other than Jack, everyone here is vulnerable in some way. If you're not 100%, in my mind, you are vulnerable. And the people who are sort of on the outside waiting to get in are Jeb Brown, also for Dead Outlaw, Marcus Choi or Desdoran for maybe happy Ending, which could really just annihilate with nominations. Chris Seiber, also super beloved for Death Becomes her, which again could super annihilate. Or Taylor Trench or Floyd Collins, which could be a major surprise nomination. Taylor, also very well liked, is not a Tony nominee yet. And this could be a really big break for him because he comes in and he is pretty regularly wonderful in the shows he's done. When he's not wonderful, it's truly because he's miscast in something or misdirected. I thought nobody was good in that Bear revival off Broadway. And everyone in that cast is so. Is such a good performing musical actor. So I Don't blame any of them. I blame the material, I blame the direction. And Taylor is fantastic in this and I would love to see him get respected for it. It could happen. I would say he's got a 30, 35% shot. I was talking to some folks from Floyd Collins after the show and they were asking me what my thoughts were of like, because they all feel like Jeremy's a lock, but they're like, we would love it if Taylor got nominated. Do you think he'd get nominated? And my short answer was, fuck if I know. I would love it if he did, though. But that also sort of shows you how loved Taylor is and how respected his performance is by so many people. So be on the lookout again, I'm saying Jack, Danny, David, Tom Brooks, but I am only confident to one of those five. So be on the lookout for Taylor, be on the lookout for Jeb Brown, for Dead, Outlaw, and then be on the lookout for Marcus or Deads. I don't think there's anyone else I would really consider a possibility. Maybe someone from Buena Vista Social Club, but I really doubt it if I'm being perfectly honest. Okay, Featured actress in a musical. The only two nominees here that I am saying are a lock for me are Natalie Venetia Belcon for Buena Vista Social Club, who I think has the the Roadmap to win, and then Justina Machado for Real Women have Curves. After that, we shall see. My other three currently are Jinx Monsoon for Floyd for Pirates. Whoa. Joy woods for Gypsy and Lea Salonga for Old Friends. By the time the nominations will come out, I will have seen Old Friends and I can make a more informed decision this. But just based off of everything everyone is saying is that Leia walks away with the show. She has overall the best material and really just burns the house down in the best kind of way. Not in the way that I was with Pirates. Like Burns it down just terms of talent and star quality and excellence and execution. But Leia could be put aside for the allure of nominating Bernadette Peters, who has not had a Tony nomination, I'm pretty sure, since 2003, I don't think. Has Bernadette been nominated since Gypsy? That is the question I have for all of us today. I'm pretty sure she has not because she wasn't nominated for Follies. She wasn't eligible for hello Dolly because she was a replacement. She wasn't eligible for a Little Night Music because she was a replacement. What was her last Tony nomination? It was. It was Gypsy, Bernadette has not been nominated since 2003. It's been 22 years. So there could be an allure to nominating her after 22 years. And what might be the last chance to nominate her? Not that she's dying anytime soon, but with people like Bernadette Peters, who she's been away from the stage for many years, she takes long gaps now in between shows. You don't know the next time she's coming back, if she ever comes back. It could be very much like a Barbara Cook in Sondheim on Sondheim situation, nominating a legend who's associated with Sondheim. So I think Leia is on the bubble. I think Joy is on the bubble, and I think the Jinx is on the bubble. I don't think any of those three are safe. I have Joy in because I'm still not entirely sure how nominators feel about Gypsy. Overall. Louise is a role that has always been nominated. If Herbie has almost always been nominated, Louise has literally always been nominated. The downside is that the Patti, the Pond Gypsy is actually still fresh in a lot of people's minds. Benanti, Boyd, Gaines and Patty all won. And so the performances in this one are, whether you like it or not, being compared to that. And of the three, Joy is the one who I've spoken to people who have felt the most underwhelmed in comparison to the last go round, and that could work against her. But Joy is also very well liked. And if you see someone you like succeeding career wise and maybe you have notes on their performance, but overall, it's not such a underwhelming experience that you're mad at them. You help out those who you like the most. And is that fair when trying to objectively judge art? No. But whether we like it or not, art is always subjective, even when we try to be objective. When I try to be objective, I still have my tastes infiltrate, my personal experience infiltrate. And I do my best, but it's impossible to fully keep it out. And that happens sometimes with nominations. That said, I do think that Bernadette is absolutely a very easy threat and could immediately wipe out Leia, Jinx or Joy. And I'm being a little crazy when I say Leia Salonga, but I'm just, again, I'm going off of my gut feeling based off of word of mouth. I think there's also a possibility for Julia Knittle for Dead Outlaw, which could also overperform. And I also think that Grace Hodgett Young could get in If Sunset Boulevard is really well liked. The problem is that Betty Schaeffer is just such a dud role, but people have really liked her performance in it, and that could help her. I'm holding out hope for Gracie Lawrence in Just In Time. I really don't think it's happening. But again, there's always a surprise somewhere. There's always an Elizabeth A. Davison once kind of surprise. You're like, oh, where did that come from? And I believe she got a Drama League nomination. Gracie Lawrence, don't quote me on that. I'm too lazy to look it back up again. But I think she did. Which isn't to say that that means she will get nominated, but it does mean that there's somebody out there who recognized that she's doing a really lovely job. Next up, we have Actor in a Play. I have Cola Scola for Omar, Jake Gyllenhaal for Othello, John Michael Hill for Purpose, Kit Connor for Romeo and Juliet, and George Clooney for Goodnight and Good Luck. Now, the only two here that I am confident about are Cole and Jake. John Michael Hill, I feel solidly about For Purpose, not amazingly about. Kit is a pipe dream that I think has a very strong likelihood, but is by no means a sure thing. And Clooney is my cynicism. I think Lewis McCartney has a very good shot of taking out either Clooney or Kit or John Michael Hill for Stranger Things. There's a possibility of Robert Downey Jr. For McNeil, but I don't really buy ultimately comes down to how people feel about the revivals because Daniel Dae Kim could also get in for Yellowface. And I think that that's. Honestly, I think that that's more of a likelihood than Jim Parsons or Denzel Washington or Robert Downey Jr. There's a lot of negativity about this Othello. And as of right now, Jake is sort of the only thing that people are willing to openly, begrudgingly say is good. Which is a shame, because I think Burn up is the best thing about it, but Jake is the second best thing. So again, I think Cole Escola and Jake Gyllenhaal are the locks. Cole is, in my opinion, clearly winning. John Michael Hill, Kit, and then George, with Lewis McCartney very much a possible threat for any of them. And Daniel Day Kim another threat for any of them. If you were to say, okay, Matt, you have to put in Lewis McCartney and Daniel, take him instead of anyone else, it would be to swap out George Clooney and unfortunately, Kit. But I'm. I'm sticking with George and Kit for now. I think there's going to be not a ton, but a little bit of star fuckery with these nominations. Just. Just a tad. Just a touch. Next up, we have Best Actress in a Play. I have Sarah Snook for the Picture of Dorian Gray. Laura Donnelly for Hills of California. Latonya Richardson Jackson for purpose. I think those three are absolute locks with Snoop winning. And then I have Sadie Sink for John Proctor as the villain who's been deemed lead and has now given us nine contenders, which means we have five nominees in this category. And the fifth slot, I believe, will be Mia Farrow for the Roommate. I think the two people who are probably on the outside possibly sneaking in are Patti LuPone for the roommate, who I personally would not nominate, but I think she's knocking at that door. And then Sidney Lemon for Job, who again, I don't know how people feel about Job. I was mixed on it myself. But I think Peter Freeman and Sidney Lemon absolutely nailed it. And I think her category is a little easier to break into than Peter's. So I think there's a. I think she's got a shot here. I do. I really do think she's got a shot. It could just be a 15 shot, but it's a shot. And I think, yes, Snoop is winning. Donnelly would still be my vote, but I'm happy that she'll be nominated. Latonya Richardson Jackson is not a leading performance, in my humble opinion, but it does get her in here. And yeah, I think. I think Sadie Sink is now a lock at this point because I think John Proctor is the villain is going to do well, if not insanely well with nominations. And yeah, I'm gonna say Farrow for five. Okay. How many more do we have left? Okay, I've got six more to go. I will do all of those after this break.

Cynthia Erivo (72:34)

Billy, I beg to differ with you. How do you mean? You're the top. Yeah, you're an arrow color. You're the top. You're a coolidge dollar. You're the nimble tread of the feet of Fred Astaire. This episode is brought to you by Matt's presenting HBO original comedy special, Bret Goldstein. The second Best Night of youf Life. Emmy winning actor, writer and comedian Brett Goldstein brings his irresistible charm and quick wit stateside for his first ever HBO stand up special. Goldstein sheds his testy Roy kid facade to share his hilarious insights on love, sex, masculinity and more. Brett Goldstein, the second best night of your Life Now. Streaming exclusively on Max. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. You might say all kinds of stuff when things go wrong, but these are the words you really need to remember. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. They've got options to fit your unique insurance needs, meaning you can talk to your agent to choose the coverage you need, have coverage options to protect them, things you value most, file a claim right on the State Farm mobile app, and even reach a real person when you need to talk to someone. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

Matt Koplik (73:49)

This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Everyone has a reason to change. Growing old, heartbreak, a fresh start. Whatever it may be, Peloton is here to get you through life's biggest moments with workouts that challenge and motivation that keeps you coming back. Peloton's tread. An all access membership helps you set your targets, track your progress and get stronger, making your fitness goals a reality. Find your push, find your power. Peloton. Visit1peloton.com and we're back. Next up, actor in a musical. I think we've got four locks here. We've got Jonathan Groff for Just in Time. We have Jeremy Jordan for Floyd Collins, Tom Francis for Sunset Boulevard and Darren Criss for maybe Happy Ending. And there's a. There is a trajectory where any of those four could win. I was talking to somebody about this, about what could get any of those men to win the Tony. Was this on the Discord channel? No, I was. I think I was texting with somebody. You know, Groff is just coming off of his first win, but we've had back to back wins in the past and he is the main attraction for the show. He is the reason that it is being produced. He is what's keeping it afloat. He got across the board, raves. I thought he did a really great job. If you listened to my review, you know that my biggest complaint is that I don't think he's channeling Bobby Darin. But hey, that doesn't seem to be a problem for most people. Jeremy, I think, is giving a stellar performance and is at this moment giving my favorite male performance in a musical of the season. And it's the title role. And it would be a way to honor Floyd Collins without giving it revival because I don't think it will win revival. And in a lot of ways, he has sort of an overdue narrative about him, which seems weirdly unfair considering he hasn't had many shows in the past like he had Gatsby last season. But I think that was his first Broadway show since American Son, which was. And American Son was, you know, a long time after Newsy. So he hasn't actually been in a lot to get that narrative. But he's been a major name in theater for over a decade at this point, and he only has one Tony nomination and this could really be a major win for him. So there is that overdue narrative, and he's doing beautiful work. Grof obviously has the marathon role. Tom Francis is absolutely holding his own opposite Nicole Scherzinger. He did win the Olivier, which is not a precursor by any means, but it does give people a touchstone to come to when they're thinking about, like, well, could I vote for him? Some people go, well, people voted for him before. I should have no problem voting for him. And then Darren Criss is the male lead of what is still the front runner for Best Musical and could also win and is giving a very beautiful, delightful performance. Fifth slot is a little trickier. I currently have Andrew Duran for Dead Outlaw because I feel like Dead Outlaw is going to do quite well with nominations. And he gets. His performance is fascinating because for the first half, he really does a lot, sings, acts, runs the gamut and does beautiful, charming, engaging work. And then the second half, surprise, surprise, he's dead. And he's dead on stage the entire time and doesn't move. And it's sort of like you. You have to do a Weekend at Bernie's with an actual person and a Bonnie and Clyde for the first half. And it is weirdly impressive and it could be a fun nomination. He's been. He got nominated for this across the board last season, so clearly it resonated with people and it could resonate with people now. And he is. Well, he is also someone who is well liked, who has been a highlight in featured roles in the past and shucked in Head over Heels. He was in Titanic at Encores and did very well. Like, he's a very good performer that people like a lot. And this is a major stepping stone for him, and that could really do it for him. The tricky thing is David Hyde Pierce for Pirates was deemed lead by the Tony committee, and that could be a kerfuffle in Andrew's Feather. David Hyde Pierce does not really have enough material for me to really think of him as a strong lead. Now, George Rose was nominated for lead for the same exact role for pretty much the same amount of material, if maybe even a little less material than David Hyde Pierce in this production of Pirates of Penzance but it's tricky to nominate David Hyde Pierce for this when the other men in his category have so much more and objectively do so much more. Now, David Hyde Pierce is, in my opinion, unquestionably the MVP of Pirates and I would nominate him if he were in featured. I would put him in featured and I think he would be a major opponent for Jack Malone here. I think he's a very, very strong likelihood for an upset nomination. But I'm still going with my instincts here and I'm going to say Andrew Durand in 48 Hours. I'm going to regret this and it's going to be David Hyde Pierce and Pirates is going to get 30 nominations and I'm going to feel like a giant asshole. But for now, I'm going to say David Hyde Pierce. Ramin Karen Liu also is deemed lead. I don't think he's getting in. Brooks was deemed featured for Smash, which I think is incorrect, but it's fine. Yeah, those are my five Jeremy Jordan, Jonathan Groff, Tom Francis, Darren Criss and Andrew Durand with Don't be surprised if David Hypierce gets in there instead of Andrew actress in a musical. I personally think we've got three locks. Audra Nicole and Jasmine. Amy Rogers for Boop. I could end up being very upset come Thursday and Jasmine does not get in here. I find it hard to believe. Again, this is where my head is trying to convince my heart out of something, but every time my head has convinced my heart out of something, it's been wrong. I say this as we look back on my cynical choices and featured. I think after that it's trickier for a while. I was saying you can't nominate Death becomes her for best musical and not nominate Megan or Jen. And you can't nominate one without the other. Really. I look forward to seeing it again in two days and seeing how my perspective on the show and their performances change since November. But in November I remember saying that I thought Gen maybe had slightly less lesser material than Megan, but was for me giving the more fully realized and special performance. So if it was a matter of like, okay, you can only get one Death becomes a woman in there. If you want to include Helen Jae Shen for maybe happy ending, I'm like, okay, it's Jen. And then Helen can get in there. But now with death becomes her really having a resurgence in the consciousness of the community, I think that helps death become a lock for best musical. Spoiler alert. We'll get to that. But I think that also helps M3 Gan and Jen get in. Now, they have had some attendance issues in the last three months. Broadway is no joke. These roles are a fucking marathon. And we've had flu season. We've had Covid. We've had norovirus going around. People have been getting sick. And this is not a show you do when you're at, you know, 85%, let alone 50%. I think we all know that M3 Gan and Jen do not call out unless they absolutely have to. So the fact that they've called out as much as they have, I think is more a testament to, A, how hard this show is, and B, just how much sickness has been going around Broadway. And that's something that people absolutely understand. Okay? There have been people who have had major attendance issues and still fucking won the Tony. Sarah Ramirez missed, like, half of her performances in Spamalot. Sorry, their performances in Spamalot. They did go by her. She. Her at the time during Spamalot. But when Sarah Ramirez was playing the lady of the Lake at that time and during Tony season, there was a lot of talk that they were not going to win because they missed so many performances that nominators and voters had to go see. And they were nominated and they did win. So keep that in mind. I do ultimately think Megan and Jen get in. I think Helen J. Shen is knocking at that door. This is a category that could end up being six. If Helen, not Helen, could knock out. I can see Helen knocking out Megan or knocking out Jasmine. I don't really see Helen knocking out Jen. And I say this after saying that I thought. I think that Jasmine's a lock, but I'm also ready for some major heartbreak. So what Helen J. Shen has going for her is a. She's wonderful in her show, but she is also the female lead of the best musical frontrunner, and that's very helpful. It could end up being that Darren ends up being the performance face of the show, and Helen not getting nominated could then end up leading towards Darren winning and them winning musical. Because that continues the underdog narrative that maybe happy ending has been feeding on for a while. Rightfully so. They have been. They had. They are doing well now, but they were an underdog for so long, and people still don't trust their. Their chances, which is crazy to me. But, yes, I think Audra Nicole. I'm gonna go again with my heart. Audra Nicole, Jasmine, Megan and Jen. If it's six, Helen gets in there. If Helen has to knock anybody out, it's Megan and Jasmine. But I'm sticking with my five. I'm sticking with my five. Best book of a musical, maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, Death Becomes Her Lockes in My Eyes, followed by Operation Mincemeat, followed by I'm gonna say Pirates. Rupert Holmes for Pirates. Not because I love it, but because I usually when a Revisal has an eligible book and it's relatively well received, that book gets nominated. Doesn't mean that it's a frontrunner for musical. Douglas Carter Bean was nominated for his book for Cinderella that did not win revival. David Henry Hwang was nominated for his book for Flower Drum Song that wasn't even nominated for revival. I just think I have a weird feeling that it gets in for book here. If it doesn't, it will be either Real Women have Curves or Just In Time, but unclear. I feel most confident in maybe Happy ending Dead Outlaw and Death Becomes Her Mincemeat. I feel very strong with. I don't think it's getting knocked out, but again, we're sort of preparing ourselves for shocks here. But that's. That's. Yeah, I would say that's my five right now. Maybe Happy ending, Dead Outlaw, Death Becomes Her, Operation Mincemeat. And then Pirates with Real Women, Hub Curves knocking on the door. And just in time, right behind. Real Women have Curves. For best score, I have maybe Happy Ending and did Outlaw with a Bullet. I then have Real Women Have Curves. I then have Operation Mincemeat. And I used to have Boop, but now I have Death Becomes her with Boop possibly kicking out either Death Becomes her or Real Women have Curves. Death Becomes her was a score that got kind of dragged a bit during previews. It got tagged a bit in reviews saying, oh, it's not as good as the book. And since the cast recording came out, there are some songs that I skipped still. But there are other songs that I remember seeing in the theater going like, that was cute. And I'm now fully obsessed. I've always been obsessed with Tell Me Ernest. I am more positive on for the gays. It's not an obsession, but I am more positive on it. I love let's Run Away Together. I love Falling Apart. I love if you want perfection. I even really, really like Alive Forever. And what's Ernest's song? The Plan. The Plan is cute, it's fun, has a lot of good wordplay. I think people are getting more up on that score. And then all of the content of Julia Madison and Noel Carey coming out talking about their score, about their process, and doing. Talking about the intricacies of the lyrics and all the inside jokes and the double entendres. I think it's helping people understand just how much craft is actually in it. Even if it's not a light in the piazza or. Or a, you know, producers are dirty around scoundrels for them in terms of score, a lot of more people are having respect for it, which I appreciate. And I think that Nolan and Julia are so fucking talented and so smart and so funny. And yes, I know them from Emerson, but I haven't seen either of them in years. So this is not a personal bias. This is just objectively, I think they're very good. I think a lot of their work on Death Becomes her is good. And I think a lot more people in the community are even higher on this score than I am. I was sort of mid ish on it when I saw it in November. I'm now halfway between mid and love on this score. There are songs that I love, songs that I like, songs that I'm on. But there are people who have more prominence in the community than I do who are really big on this score and love Julia and Noel. So I think that helps. I really do. So once again, I'm saying maybe. Happy ending. Dead Outlaw. Real Women have Curves. Operation Mincemeat. And Death becomes her. With Boop possibly knocking out real women or death becomes her. 4 Best musical revival. I have Sunset Boulevard, Gypsy, Floyd Collins, and Pirates. I think if anything gets knocked out, it'll be Pirates for Once Upon a Mattress, but I don't. I don't buy it. I think it's. I think it's those four. Sunset, Boulevard, Gypsy, Floyd Collins, Pirates. Best play revival. The only two I feel confident in are Yellowface and Eureka Day. I'm gonna say Glengarry Glen Ross because it's still running. It's a big fat hit. It's a Pulitzer Prize winning play. And for fourth, because we have to have a fourth, I'm gonna say out of my butt. Romeo and Juliet, of all things. Especially if Kit does get a nomination for best actor. Our Town is an equal classic. It got the better reviews, mostly. Romeo and Juliet might be remembered for having made more of an impression and taking more chances. I don't know anyone who remembers this last revival of Our Town, let alone remembers it fondly. And I am somebody who did not like this Romeo and Juliet, but there are people who did, and we all remember it. And it was successful. It made money. It. It was a financial hit. And I think that's something to consider and it's been getting nominated rather frequently, which just again, it just sort of shows you that there are people around who who give it support. And so critical reception is not indicative of Tony chances. Look at Wicked. Best play oh Mary English Purpose John Proctor is the villain. The Hills of California if anything is vulnerable here, it's probably the Hills of California, sadly. And it would be knocked out for either Cult of Love or Good Night and Good Luck. Again, I gotta go with my heart, with my gut here, which is that Good Night and Good Luck is successful. It has themes that are relevant to right now, but it is ultimately a high ticket movie star affair and is also kind of dull. I said in my review I liked it more than I thought I would. That didn't. That doesn't mean I liked it. That means there were parts of it that I liked. But there were a lot of parts that I was falling asleep during. And I have two friends who walked out during intermission. There was no intermission. Two friends who walked out in the middle of the show. Last week, one friend texted me as I was walking into Floyd Collins and he said I just left halfway through goodnight and good luck. And I was like, you're the second person to tell me that. So yes, I am staying locked in for my best play, best musical. Alrighty. What I thought were my top three locks for a while have actually switched. My top three locks now are maybe Happy Ending, which I still think is the frontrunner to win Dead Outlaw, which I've been saying since day one. And Death becomes her. I did not think Death becomes her. Was was I thought Death becomes her. Had a solid chance of getting in, but I wasn't confident on it, let alone it being a lock. I now think it's a lock. Weirdly enough, I think those three are locks. I thought Operation Mincemeat was a lock up until about two weeks ago. But again, as I said earlier with my email to my friend who, you know, votes at the Tonys. Sorry, I don't want you guys to think that it's one friend. I actually have like several friends who are Tony voters and I speak to about three or four of them in and out. This is one who I hadn't spoken to since January, something like that. We ran into each other at the ninth Avenue Saloon a few weeks ago and we really have each other's emails but not each other's phone numbers. And he emailed me and was asking about my thoughts and I gave him my predictions and he gave me his he's not a nominator. He's a voter. So he doesn't matter what he thinks, what the nominees might be, because he doesn't get to choose that. But I had told him, like, this is what I've been hearing about stuff and mincemeat. I've been getting more cold responses from people lately. There's again, a fandom that is loud and it's wild. And I have had also people go see mincemeat. I really love it. But I thought it was a lock up until about two weeks ago. And now I think it is more just a very strong likelihood. I still have it in here. I still have maybe happy ending. Dead Outlaw death becomes her Operation Mincemeat. And then my fifth one. I am throwing a huge curveball in here. Huge. And saying real women have curves. I don't know how much I actually believe that so much as I'm throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing if it sticks, because there is a groundswell of love for this show that feels very organic and within the community, more so than Just in time, which is very much more of a love for Groff. Now. Just in time could end up surprising. I also think Buena Vista Social Club is very likely to knock out Real women have curves. What keeps me from saying that completely is I don't know if I see Buena Vista Social Club getting nominated for book or even director. And it's really difficult for me to. To say that it has a lock on a best musical nomination when I don't see it getting those two nominations. Now you can get nominated for best musical without either of those. It's happened. It's rare, and I don't know how much I buy it. We shall see. We shall see. Maybe it's the Illinois of the season where it gets choreography and text stuff, and obviously Natalie Venetia, Balcon and musical, but not book or director. It can happen. I'm just. It's keeping me from saying, oh, yes, it's a lock just because of reviews. Yeah, I'm gonna say that. I'm gonna say maybe happy ending, Dead Outlaw death becomes her Operation Mincemeat. Real women have curves. But know that I say real women with the absolute knowledge that Buena Vista Social Club or Just in time could not get out. And that's where we're at. Those are my predictions. I hope you guys enjoyed this. I hope that I didn't embarrass myself too much, and I hope that you enjoy the nominations when they come out on Thursday morning. This is Going to be dated in about 40 hours. So whoops. But yes, that's it for now. Join me for Rachel and Will Anderson, AKA the theater lovers. Responses to the real nominations Thursday afternoon and it's been a trip. We've been through the thick of it for so long. But we're coming out of the woods. Are we out of the woods yet? Already out of the woods yet. Who do I want to close this out with today? I'm thinking we've done Natalie, Venetia, Balcon. We've done Megan, Jen. How about redo? Because I'm not sure of her likelihood of getting nominated and if she does get nominated, it'll be a great way to celebrate her. And if she doesn't, it's a great way to honor her. We're gonna close out with Ms. Helen. Sorry, Ms. Helen J. Shen. And that will be our. Our diva for this week. So, yes, we'll see you guys in about a day and a half for the Tony nomination. Reactions. If you like the podcast, nice five star rating or review is helpful. Again, you guys have been killing it with reviews. We're currently at 3:08 on Apple Podcasts. If you want to join the Discord Channel, I'll put the link in the description box. If that doesn't work, you can message me on Instagram. Follow me on Instagram at koplok. Usual spelling. And that is it for this one. Take it away, Helen. Bye.

Cynthia Erivo (94:34)

It'll be okay. It'll be okay. A robot does what she always does. It's the only way It'll be okay? You know you're stronger than you think? You know you're made to take a lot? And if it doesn't come for free, well, that's the way that it, it has to be. It's the way that it always was? It's the way that it always was.

Matt Koplik (95:10)

Can you identify an Elphaba just from her defying gravity war cry? Can you name every actress in the Wicked to waitress pipeline? Or does the phrase witch switch mean anything to you? Well then, good news.

Cynthia Erivo (95:27)

My name's Quincy.

Matt Koplik (95:29)

And my name's Kevin. And we're the host of Sentimental Men. We're here to talk and maybe scream about our favorite women in musical theater, the witches of Wicked. So if spending a Friday night in a no good deed Rabbit hole on YouTube sounds like your idea of a good time, then Sentimental Men is the podcast for you. And with guests like Jessica Vosk, Lucy Jones and Stephanie J. Block, chances are we've already got an episode with your. Your favorite Elphaba or Glinda, like Laura Bell Bundy, Brittany Johnson and Mackenzie Kurtz. So pause your Riff compilations, put down your copy of the Grimmery and give sentimental men a listen. You can find us on the Broadway Podcast Network or wherever you listen to podcasts.