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Think of the prestige.
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Think of the respect. No, no, no. Think of the Tony. Hello all you theater lovers both out and proud and on the DL and welcome back to Broadway Breakdown, a podcast discussing the history und legacy of American theater's most exclusive address, Broadway. I am your host, Matt Koplik, the least famous and most opinionated of all the Broadway podcast hosts. And and we are looking at some of your Tony prediction takes today. These are predictions listed by listeners in the Discord Channel, which I will put the link for in the description box. Although to be perfectly honest, I may just stop doing that because the links just keep expiring and people keep having trouble with them and just reach out to me directly on Instagram and get a new link anyway. So I don't know. I really don't know what to do. I. I wrote to Discord. They've been absolutely no help. So if anyone out there is super familiar with Discord and knows how to make this problem go away, please let me know. Otherwise, if you want to join the Discord Channel and are having trouble, please reach out to me directly on Instagram. Mattcoppock Usual spelling at some point I will create a Gmail account for the podcast. So if you don't have Instagram and don't want to download Instagram just to ask me for the link, then you can email the Broadway Breakdown email account when I create that. So soon enough. So we are recording this pretty soon after the drama league nominations came out and first I want to say congratulations to everyone and everything that was nominated because ultimately everything and everyone was nominated. That's sort of how the drama leagues work. I you know, we are a week away from Tony nominations and there will be drama desk and outer critics circle nominations to reacts to as well. And I feel like it bears repeating every year that ultimately these award bodies are not actual precursors for the Tonys. There is no overlap in the voting pool. They have different criteria for eligibility and nominations. Some things get nominated in different categories at the drama desks and outer critic circles than they do at at the Tonys. And these groups also take into account off Broadway and whatnot. So it's just they're not really precursors. What they can sometimes do is give you an idea of maybe what shows have some more buzz around them. Those nominations also can help build buzz for shows. So, you know, Tony nominators may be excited to nominate something that was getting a lot of love a week ago. The thing though is that I don't know when the cutoff is for Nominators when they. When they have to put in their ballots to nominate shows. I know that the deadline is, I think the 28th, April 28th, I think is the deadline or the 27th. But that doesn't necessarily mean that nominators all submit their nominations at that point. They might submit it earlier because, you know, once a show is frozen, that means there are press seats available for those shows, and that is usually about a week up to opening night. So for all we know, the Tony nominators have seen everything because everything is now doing press performances. So I don't think that Drama League nominations influence Tony nominators. I don't think that outer critics circle or drama does necessarily influence. It just sometimes helps with momentum is all. So that said, congratulations to everyone with the Drama League. What the Drama League Awards can tell us, I guess, is maybe watch shows are maybe a little more dead than people assumed. But even that, I just don't totally buy the drama leagues. I don't want to say this in a way that is super disparaging, because it's ultimately an awards body that likes theater and cares about theater and likes to celebrate theater. And I got to go to their awards ceremony two years ago, and I actually had a pretty nice time. Very good food spread. I must say, they put out some good munchies. But if you look at the shows nominated, we're talking like dozens and dozens of productions this season, off Broadway and on Broadway nominated, and over 50 performances nominated. That is more than those. We have more nominees for the Drama League in performance than we did last year for every category for performance at the Tonys. And keep in mind, last year at the Tonys, we had, I think, seven. A record of seven best featured actress and a musical nominees. And I think we had six featured actor and a musical nominee. So we had some expanded categories, and that still did not total up to the number of nominees we had for Drama League. So just keep that in mind. The thing about the Drama Leagues is it is ultimately a luncheon, right? I think it's like on a Thursday or Friday, and productions have to buy tables in order to, you know, celebrate their award or their nomination. And the only people who don't pay to be there are the performance nominees. They get to sit sort of on the dais and have a free meal and schmooze and give a little speech for their nomination, and then one person wins. But overall, the productions themselves have the producers pay to go. And the more productions that are nominated, the more likely it is that producers will pay to sit at their tables. You also pay to be a member of the Drama League committee. So it's a pay to play situation. Also, the more celebrities that are nominated for a Drama League award, the more press the drama league gets, which is why you see people like Robert Downey Jr. George Clooney, Sandra oh, Kit Connor, you know, all getting nominated for the Drama League over sometimes, maybe some Broadway performers that should have been recognized. People like Francis Zhu for Yellowface. In fairness, the drama leagues do tend to award Broadway performers more than they award celebrities. Sometimes you'll get someone sort of who's like halfway in between, one foot in both doors, like a Neil Patrick Harris in Hedwig or a Sarah Paulson. Inappropriate. But, you know, usually it's a strictly theater performer. And the drama leagues do not indicate what's going to win. Last year, Hell's Kitchen won best Musical. The year before that was Some Like It Hot and, you know, into the woods won revival, and Maria Friedman won director last year. So it's not. It does not tell you that this is who's going to win. Annaleigh Ashford won for Sweeney Todd and Sutton Foster won for Music Man. They did not win. So, like, I think there are maybe three years in the last two decades that the Drama League winners for, you know, play, musical revival, revival, director, and performer have all coincided with the winners, with winners at the Tony Awards. But, like, we're talking three out of the last 25 years, that's not a great track record. So, ultimately, we're very happy for the nominees. But what does it tell us about the Tony nominations? Ultimately, nothing. But congratulations to everyone. Anyway, so I asked everyone on the Discord Channel to give me sort of their takes on nominations, where they think things are going. Both. And these are listeners who live in New York have been seeing a lot of shows, listeners who do not live in New York and have been more sort of following the buzz of shows online. So it's nice to sort of get different perspectives, right and then. And listeners who are leading with their hearts of the shows this year that they've really loved. And I asked everyone to sort of put in their ideas, and this is what we got. So this is more just sort of getting a feel of what the fandom is interested in, if not necessarily the host of this podcast. Because we were told to be a little more structured in our Tony Awards stuff, I figured I would adhere to that review and just say, okay, going to start with the tech categories and move our way up in sound design of a play. The Overlaps we've gotten have been oh Mary, John Proctor is the villain and Stranger Things. I think we should not be sleeping on Dorian Gray. And Good Night and Good Luck. I. I think that with play sound design of a play, Dorian Gray is probably going to be a lock as is Stranger Things. Goodnight and Good Luck has a very good shot again. It's a very technically savvy show. I would also not rule out McNeil or Job. John Proctor is the villain. I'm not entirely sure why that would be in for sound. There's not really a great deal of sound effects in that show. Same with Omar. But Omari could just sort of be one of those overwhelming sweeps of nominations due to its juggernaut effect on this season. But. But it seems so far that the three that everyone kind of agrees on are Stranger Things and John Proctor is the villain. And Omar. And I disagree with John Proctor is the villain. But. And slightly with Omari. But yeah, Stranger Things. I think we can also consider that a lock sound design of a musical. Our listeners on the Discord. Let's see, our overlaps were we Buena Vista Social Club, which I actually kind of agree with. Maybe Happy Ending. Also agree with Sunset Boulevard. Also agree with. And those are the only overlaps where listeners all agreed on those. There was Dead Outlaw, which I think should absolutely be considered just in time. Death becomes her and Operation Mincemeat. Mincemeat. I'm not sure. Listen, the other thing that people wanted to mention was like, you know, every year there are nominations that make you kind of scratch your head. And so someone said, what is going to be the Sweeney Todd getting nominated for sound and winning sound of this year, like the ultimate head scratcher. And so for something like Mincemeat, I actually think Mincemeat sound design is quite poor. I think that the lyrics do not come off as crisp as they should. And I think the music sounds too tinny and far away, which you could argue adds to its supposed charm. But the balance just feels off for me with Mincemeat in that theater. And I would also say the same thing of Death becomes her, Death becomes her. Lyrics do not carry over across the stage often. It might just be something that lanfontaine. But I don't think that Death becomes her sound design is all that great. I think maybe Happy Ending. I agree. I think that's a lock. I think Sunset Boulevard is also a lock. Buena Vista Social Club I think has a very good shot just in time. I will be seeing that in a few short Days, but that also could come through. And Dead Outlaw. Having seen Dead Outlaw downtown, I'll be seeing it in a week on Broadway. That is a show where sound design is very important. It's interesting that no one has said anything about Gypsy or Swept Away from for this. Two shows that had been sort of on the bubble, one might say, when it comes to tech categories, when Swept Away was running and when Gypsy opened. But I do think that Gypsy will not be getting in for sound design. I think that that orchestra sounds too muffled. But again, so did Sweeney Todd, so what the fuck do I know? Next up, costume design of a play. Our overlaps here are O Mary and Dorian Gray and Stranger Things. That seems to be the only overlaps. Yeah, I do think Omari will get in. It's not a lot of costumes, but it is period and very colorful and kooky, so that'll help. Stranger Things, also a big spectacle show, and the 1950s is period, so that helps. And Dorian Gray, yes, Dorian Gray, I think, won the Olivier for costumes in London. So that's always something to consider. Not necessarily that just because something won it, it will get nominated, but if something got noticed from a. No. And I know I'm contradicting myself because I just talked about this with Outer Critic Circle and Drama Desk, but if something got recognized by a large voting body, you know, in a. In earlier in the year, it doesn't mean that it's a lock, but it is something to have your antenna up. I said this actually in our very first, very early Tony Predictions episode with David J. Lynch. And I think it was Justina Machado from Real Women have Curves. She got nominated for, I think, an Elliot Norton Award in Boston when the show was at Art. And I said, you know, I don't know much about the show. I haven't heard much buzz about it. This was only a few months ago, but I was like, I don't know if she got nominated for this. Out of all the possible contenders, there might be something to this performance. So just keep an eye out and we'll get to that category in just a second. But that is something that people have been talking about. Dorian Gray, wonderful costumes at the Olivier Awards. And so that's something to consider. Yeah, our overlaps are Dorian Gray, oh, Mary and Stranger Things. And I think that's all good stuff. I don't know if I think Stranger Things is necessarily a Locke. I think Omari and Dorian Gray are closer to Lockes. We also have people talking about English and Hills of California. I think that's also very wise to think about Hills of California, also a period piece, specifically two specific decades, the 40s and the 70s. English, I think, is something also interesting to consider. It's more of a contemporary piece, but it's contemporary in a foreign country. And contemporary plays have been getting a bit more respect when it comes to costume design. Sadly, not musicals, but there you go. Same thing with John Proctor's the Villain, which is being mentioned here. I think that could possibly happen. And Goodnight and Good Luck. Also possible period piece. I think it's always important to think about that, especially in the 50s. And that's something to talk about as we go into costume design of a musical. Our overlaps here. For costume design of a musical, Death Becomes her, which one listener thinks absolutely is a lock to win. I would actually agree with that. I do like the costumes in Death Becomes Her. Part of me wants to know what Greg Barnes could have done with that show, but I do think that Paul Tazewell has done a really lovely job and they're just like super gaudy and fun and shiny and people really like that. It's sort of share show, but better, in my humble opinion. But we have Death Becomes her is one that everyone agrees on. Boop is another that everybody agrees on. Yeah, I think that's. I think that's it. Boop and Death Becomes her are the only three or the only. Sorry, the only two that have complete overlap after that. The closest to a consensus are Buena Vista Social Club, which I actually agree with, and maybe Happy Ending, which I don't totally agree with. But I mean, it could happen, I think so. I think Death Becomes her and Boop. Everyone sort of. Yeah, those are the top two. And then everyone else is kind of iffy on the rest. I think we shouldn't count out Pirates. I don't think we should count out Mincemeat or just In Time. A lot of you seem to think that Sunset could get in for costumes, which is I think actually rather wild. It's the costumes in Sunset absolutely serve the purpose and the vision of the show. So in that respect, sure, it's very much a Bob Crowley for set design of once, which did one. Let's never forget that. But sometimes the Tonys do really think about most, if not necessarily best. So Death Becomes her and Boop are right up there. I think Pirates is a very strong contender. Buena Vista Social Club, very strong contender. And that's four. And then five could be just in time, similar to the Good Night and Good Luck of it all. Or the hills of California. Of it all, it is a 1950s, I think, through the early 1960s musical sort of dress wise, suit wise. It very much gives a tasteful but period costume design. There's some interest in Gypsy, some interest in mincemeat, and some interest in Real Women have Curves. Again, I'm not seeing real women have curves. I don't know how the design is of that show. It could be sort of like an in the Heights type of contemporary, but with style costume design, which could end up working for them. You know, we had Hell's Kitchen get nominated last year, so these things do happen. But I think if we're going off of these, the ones that everyone should just put safe money on are boop. And death becomes her. And then if you want to be a little more gambly, you can say Pirates and Buena Vista Social Club. And then for fifth, if you guys tell me between Real Women have Curves and Gypsy, and just in time, where do you think it goes? All right, next up, lightning design of a plea. Our overlaps are Dorian Gray. Totally agree. Stranger Things. Totally agree. And then our only other one is John Proctor is the villain. Y' all seem to really think that John Proctor is the villain is gonna do really well with these. With these design categories. The design of John Proctor is the villain is very good, but we also have quite a few designy shows. Don't forget McNeil. Don't forget Job. Don't forget Hills of California. That was some design wise. Hills of California fucking slapped. I think that. I think Dorian Gray and Stranger Things are totally locked in. Good Night and Good Luck also had very shadowy, moody lighting. There's back and forth between English Romeo and Juliet. I think Romeo and Juliet is the. Is the stronger option from English. There's a world where Romeo and Juliet get completely blanks on Tony nomination morning. Or it could get, you know, a surprise revival as well as lighting and lead actor Tony nomination. I'm really hoping Kit gets in there. And I will say this. The two things I liked most about Romeo and Juliet were Kit Connor and the lighting, which is very Liz Lemon. The lighting was really neat, but the lighting was really neat in Romeo and Juliet. It was very euphoria Shakespeare. But I don't know, it was an aesthetic that worked for me and I actually thought brought a lot of theatricality to what was ultimately a mundane production for me. So, yes, again, if you have money, Dorian Gray and Stranger Things seem to be safe options. People seem to be really on board with the John Proctor is the Villain of it all. After that, it's all kind of a gamble. Lighting design of a musical. Our overlaps are maybe Happy ending, Death becomes her Sunset Boulevard. So maybe happy ending, Death becomes her Sunset Boulevard. Operation Mincemeat. And those are the only four. After that, it kind of wobbles. There's interest in Swept Away. I would not be mad about that. Some interest in Dead Outlaw and Floyd Collins. I think that Sunset and maybe Happy Ending are absolute locks here. I think Mincemeat is a very strong contender, especially for the Act 1 finale. They really. The way the lighting works in that finale is done very, very well. Death becomes her. Of all the design elements, I can't say that the lighting is the one that is a lock here, but it is a very techie show. And especially how the lighting is done with the special effects could be to their advantage. Again, haven't seen Floyd Collins yet, but I understand that, you know, shadows and silhouettes are very important to this production and that the lighting really helps with the rather sparse set design. So that could happen. Dead Outlaw, from what I recall, off Broadway had really gorgeous and very shadowy lighting. Shadowy lighting does very well with the Tony nominators. So, yeah, I would say if we're looking at the fifth, Floyd Collins and Dead Outlaw absolutely are gunning for that. And I mean, Swept Away could be a surprise here for sure. Then we have scenic design. Scenic design of a play. Our overlaps are Eureka Day, John Proctor is the villain, and Stranger Things. Stranger Things, absolutely. It's just. It's so much set. So you really can't ignore that. John Proctor's the villain in Eureka Day will be interesting to me because they're both classrooms, very different classrooms, but classrooms and very detail oriented and work very well. Eureka Day. The details of it are such that. And they've done a really. They did a really good job when the show was running of highlighting the set design and showing people all the details of it that that could work for them. Especially since that is a major contender for revival. John Proctor is the villain. I see it. I'm not disregarding it. I think it could absolutely happen. Only one person is certain about Hills of California. The other person thinks that it's on the bubble, I think. I mean, that set, I thought was just gorgeous and very elaborate and creative and, you know, moved about in a number of really gorgeous and surprising ways. So I would not count it out after that. It bumps up around. We have. In English, we have a O Mary Cult of Love. Yeah. So I think, I guess what we're seeing here is Eureka Day. John Proctor is the villain and Stranger Things easy to put your money down on. There's also a purpose and a Glenn, Good night and good luck that's being considered. We have Cult of Love and Glengarry Glen Ross on the bubble. Also English on the Bubble with somebody else. I. Yeah. So I. I think it again with scenic design and I don't think that McNeil should be slept on either. It was very tech heavy show and the set was very elaborate. In that respect. It's a matter of are we going for best, are we going for most? Are we going for the detailed orient or nuance of these sets in Purpose? Purpose is a very gorgeous whole poem with very specific touches to it. It did actually remind me a great deal of the appropriate set, but in a less ghoulish way. So, yeah, I guess if you. If you want to put money down. People are very confident in Eureka Day and John Proctor is the villain and Stranger Things for scenic design of a musical. Let's see, our overlaps are Death becomes Her seems to be the front runner after that. Maybe Happy Ending, Buena Vista Social Club and Boop. I actually think maybe Happy Ending is a stronger candidate for scene design. Then Death Becomes her. But I mean, I think they're. I think they're both getting in, but I think that one is. Maybe Happy Ending is more of the leading design. So we also have. Oh, and Pirates. Pirates is tracking nicely. We've got one person who's very insistent that Redwood's happening and thinks that Boop is winning. Scenic design. I don't think Boop is winning. I think that's. I think that's down to maybe Happy Ending and Death becomes Her. There's also some people who think possibly swept away or Smash or Sunset or Dead Outlaw. Mincemeat. Two. Sorry. Two people who think Mincemeat could happen. Yeah, Mincemeat could happen. I don't think it will, but yeah. And then only one. One vote for Just In Time. I feel like Just In Time is also probably a lock, right. Because of the sort of overhaul they've done to Circle in the square. That's. That's always catnip for Tony Nominators when they're like, oh, you made the whole. You overdid the whole environment. Good for you. So I guess we. We. I think we could have maybe Happy ending. Death becomes ruined just In Time as. As pretty much locks. I think Boop is a strong candidate, if not an amazing candidate. Buena Vista Social Club is A strong but not amazing candidate. And then same thing with Pirates. And I mean Redwood, in a sense. But the problem with Redwood is the computer graphics of it all. Will people be on board with that or not? Final one, and then we'll take a quick break is orchestrations are overlaps here, surprisingly, have actually been last five years, because listeners think that that's a way for the Tonys to honor Jason Robert Brown without actually nominating the revival itself, which is totally fair. I think the same could be said of Floyd Collins, but nobody seems to have included that. Yeah, our overlaps are Last five years, Dead Outlaw, maybe Happy Ending. And, yeah, those are the only overlaps we have someone put in Sunset Boulevard. I don't think Sunset is eligible. It's the same orchestrators, Andrew Lloyd Webber and his collaborator. And I don't believe that they've overhauled the orchestrations. I think they've just reduced them. This is, I believe, 19 pieces in the. The pit. And the show's normally been done with 24 to 40. So, I mean, in some respects that could technically count. But I don't think that this is an eligible orchestration. I can't recall. Maybe someone can tell me if the Tonys deemed it eligible or not. But, yeah, maybe Happy Ending, which I think is absolutely worth noting. With orchestrations, you want to kind of look at three categories. What is the most likely to be nominated for Score? What is a jukebox situation that requires new arrangements? And then what is a revival with new arrangements? Having Pirates, I think, is an ideal candidate. Same thing with the last five years and Floyd Collins revivals where they expanded the orchestrations so it's a whole new set of charts. So those all are viable candidates. And then for Score, I think maybe Happy Ending, Mincemeat and Dead Outlaw are the three locks for best score. So that's something to consider. We'll get back to the score in a second. But also, real Women have Curves and Death Becomes her are also on the bubble there, as is Boop. And then for the jukebox situation, Just In Time and Buena Vista Social Club and Swept Away are all under that umbrella. And I think this is a category where Swept Away could get in, if it's going to get in at all. And then I think Just In Time also could get in here. Buena Vista Social Club as well. Buena Vista Social Club. I wonder if it's going to be sort of like a Sunset Rule of. It might be considered not different enough in terms of arrangements from the actual album to matter. But I have to believe that it'll be eligible. So, yeah. Yeah. So again, our overlaps are maybe Happy Ending, which makes sense. It's the front runner for musical and score right now. And then Last five Years and Dead Outlaw. Those are our three overlaps right now with everything else sort of vying for attention. Okay, so we will get back with book and score and director and all the rest of that good stuff right after this break.
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Billy, I beg to differ with you. How do you mean? You're the top.
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Yeah.
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You're an arrow collar. You're the top. You're a Coolidge dollar. You're the nimble tread of the feet of Fred Astaire.
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And we're back. So first up, we got Best book of a musical. And our overlaps here are. Sorry, we actually have a few submissions. So let me see. Okay. Our overlaps for best book of a musical seem to be Mincemeat. Operation Mincemeat. Death Becomes her, maybe Happy Ending. And real Women have curves. Those seem to be pretty much locks after that. Dead Outlaw is most likely as well. With Buena Vista Social Club sort of being on the bubble. I think that about lines up. We have a listener who thinks that Mincemeat is absolutely winning book. From what I recall from that discord, this is the listener who Mincemeat is their favorite of the season. So I don't doubt that you think that Mincemeat is going to win book. And it could. It absolutely could. I think that this is actually a fun. I think both book and score are fun categories, but I think book is more fun because there is no front runner. I think Dead Outlaw, Mincemeat, and maybe Happy Ending are pretty much locks. And I think Death becomes or is close to a lock. And real women have Curves, from what I understand is very good, very strong. So I think that has a very good shot. Buena Vista Social Club could be one of those musicals that gets a Best Musical nomination without a book nomination, which ultimately undermines its chances of winning musical. As no Best musical winner that was eligible for best book has ever not been nominated for best Book. If you are a best Musical winner that did not get nominated for book, it's because you were a review like Fosse or Amis Behavin. Otherwise you got that nomination, sweetie. That was the first sign I saw that Strange Loop was going to beat six for Best Musical when it got a best book nomination and won and six did not get a nomination at all. So, yes, once again, Best Book. Our overlaps are Death Becomes Her Operation Mincemeat, maybe Happy ending and Dead Outlaw. Those seem to be the four that listeners agree upon. And then in the second tier of Very likely is Real Women have curves and quite possible Buena Vista Social Club, and Just in Time. And then there's some submissions as well for Boop and Smash. We'll see about that. Best original score. Okay. Our overlaps are maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, Operation Mincemeat, and those. Yeah, those are the three locks. No surprise there. On the second tier of Quite likely, death becomes her and Real women have Curves. And then sort of on the bubble, we have boop. And that seems to be. And I did not necessarily think that Death becomes her was a lock for Score for a long time, but they did just release their cast album and with enough time for listeners to. For voters to listen to it before they make their final choices for nominations. And I think that might help them a great deal. I can't say that the Death becomes your score has gone from sort of passable to amazing for me on a re listen, and especially when with clearer sound and appreciation. But there are certain songs that I like a whole lot more from the cast album now than I did in the theater. And it used to just be Tell me Ernest was the only song I liked, and now I actually really, really love let's run Away Together. I enjoy. I enjoy for the gays. It's not my personal favorite. I don't love that that's become a big song from the show. But I also do like if you want perfection. I also really like falling apart, but so, yeah, it seems. Yeah, maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, Operation Mincemeat for Score. Second tier, Death becomes her. Real Men have Curves. And then on the bubble, Boop. And I think that makes a lot of sense. No love for Redwood. No love for Tammy Faye. Ah, well, I don't. Listen, there could be a. A play with a best score nomination for all we know. It happens. It happens all the time. Best choreography. Our overlaps seem to be Justin Peck and Patricia Delgado for Buena Vista Social Club, which makes a whole lot of sense. I think that is probably our front runner right now. Jerry Mitchell for Boop is an overlap we have, and I think that's. Those are the only two that seem to have been covered by everybody after that. Yeah, Justin Peck and Patricia Delgado for Buena Vista Social Club and Jerry Mitchell for Boop are the two that everyone agrees on. After that, the. The second tier of most people, but not everyone are Camille A. Brown for Gypsy, Warren Carlisle for Pirates, and huh yeah, that seems to be the next batch. And then the third tier, which is sort of half of the. Of the listeners are on board with Chris Gattelli for Death Becomes Her, Sergio Truquillo for Real Women have Curves. There's questions about Smash's eligibility. We'll find out soon enough. Yeah, that seems that those seem to be the three tiers. And then there's like a couple of scatterings, like Jenny Arnold for Operation Mincemeat, Shannon Lewis for Just In Time. Well, as the choreographer for Sunset Boulevard, I don't recall the name of that person, but yes. So it seems that the only two real sort of complete locks here that everyone agrees on are Justin Peck and Patricia Delgado, as well as Jerry Mitchell. And then after that, very, very likely, Camille Brown for Gypsy and Chris Catelli for Death Becomes Her. And then Warren Carlisle for Pirates, which is not a bad. Not a bad group. Not at all. I will be seeing Real Women have Curves soon enough, so I will let you guys know about my feelings on that. Best director of a play. Our general consensus here seems to be Sam Pinkleton for O Mary, Donya Taymor for John Proctor as the villain, Phylicia Rashad for Purpose, and Kip Williams for Picture of Dorian Gray. That I think is a solid four. I'm not convinced about Kip Williams for Dorian Gray. Again, that's a production that's incredibly impressive, but I know it's left a lot of people, myself included, very cold by it and sort of felt at a distance by it. But again, it is a very impressive work. But, yeah, those are the four that have complete overlap. And then fifth has been. We have. We have half of the people thinking Sam Mendes for Hills of California and the other half thinking Stephen Daldry for Stranger Things, but also those nominees being sort of on the bubble for the other group, so could go either way. I guess we'll sort of see how nominators overall feel about Hills of California, then. That might sort of be considered an underwhelming production for some, but I don't know. I say don't sleep on it. Yeah, I think Sam Pinkleton, Donya Taymor and Phylicia Rashad are nominees we can all get on board with. I would like it if we didn't forget about English or Cult of Love. But Cult of Love's not happening for a director. I know that. But English I would like us to not sleep on. Hopefully that could happen. All right, four. Director of a musical. We have overlap for Michael Arden for maybe Happy Ending. I don't doubt that. Jamie Lloyd for Sunset Boulevard. I also don't doubt that. And that's the only complete overlap we have. The other semi close to complete options are Robert Hasty for Operation Mincemeat. Mmm, no, I take that back. That's not. That's only a third of the listeners. Jamie Lloyd and Michael Arden are the only two that everyone seems to be totally on board with. Chris Catelli for Death Becomes her is. Has a large group. George C. Wolf is a large group, but not everyone. And David Cromer. No. And that's it. Yeah. So our top tier of complete overlaps are Jamie Lloyd for Sunset Boulevard and Michael Arden for maybe Happy Ending. Second tier of majority, but not Everyone, George Sewell for Gypsy and Chris Catelli for Death Becomes her, as well as Robert Hasty for Operation Mincemeat. And then third tier of some but not Majority, Jerry Mitchell for Boop. And David Cromer for Dead Outlaw. Alex Timbers for Just In Time and Sergio Trujillo for Real. Real women have curves with possible Sahim Ali for Buena Vista Social Club, Tina Lindau for Floyd Collins or Scott Ellis for Pirates. I say don't count out David Cromer for Dead Outlaw. I think that I. I think that Kromer, Ardyn and Lloyd are three pretty much locks. And then after that, Mincemeat I think is very likely, if not a complete lock, but I think very, very likely. And then I think George C. Wolfe probably very likely. Not a total lock, but likely. Floyd Collins. We'll see. Tina Landau seems to do well with the Tonys for her nominations, but it seems, it sounds like what people are mostly responding to with Floyd Collins is the music and not necessarily her direction. Okay, Featured actor in a play. We have overlap for Conrad, Rick Amora for Omari, Bill Burr for Glengarry Glen Ross, and that's. Those are the only two full overlaps. Yeah. Bill Burr for Glengarry Glen Ross and Conrad Ricklemore for O Mary, which I think are absolutely happening. There's also Francis Jew for Yellowface mentioned. Bob Odenkirk for Glengarry Glen Ross, Kieran Culkin for Glengarry Glen Ross. Bill Irwin for Eureka Day. Could happen. I don't think it's going to. Zachary Quinto for Cult of Love. I would love for that to happen. I don't think it's going to happen. And then also Andrew Burnout for Othello. I would love for that to happen. I don't think Andrew is going to get nominated. I think that featured actor in a Play is both very crowded and very sparse. Like, there's no complete five that are locked in. There are. But there are plenty of very worthy candidates. If it were up to me, I would. I would make this category. Bill Burr for Glengarry Glen Ross. Francis Jew for Yellowface. Andrew Burnett for Othello. Hmm. Honestly, I preferred James Scully over Conrad. Rick Amora for oh, Mary. So he would probably be in there for me. And I had a fifth. Who was my fifth gonna be? You know, I. I do. I liked Conrad in Omari. I liked him more downtown than uptown, and I actually liked his replacement more. But I'm not mad if he gets nominated. Yeah, I'll make. Oh, no. Oh, sorry. I take that back. Glenn Davis for Purpose. That would be my fifth. If I were to do. I would do Bill Burr, Francis Jew, Glenn Davis, Andrew Burnap, and James Scully. That would be my five. But I think. But if we're talking about who I actually predict. Predict. Because I'm going to do, like, actual final, final predictions on Monday or Tuesday right before the nominations, after I've seen just about everything. But yeah, I think. I think Rick Amora is something we should all put money down on. Same thing with Bill Burr. I don't know about Kieran Culkin. I really don't. But yeah, Burr and Rick Amora are the only two that are. That have complete overlap. Everything else is pretty scattered. So this. This will be a fun category to see how it turns out. Next up, featured actress in a play. Our overlaps are Jessica Hecht for Eureka Day. Totally. I see that happening. Tala Ash for English. God, I hope that happens. She was phenomenal. Finestrasa for. Or Finestrasa for John Proctor as the villain. Also, I hope that happens. She was phenomenal. Helena Wilson for Hills of California. Helena Wilson was great. I would love it if she got nominated. I would love it if all those women got Nomin, but that's going to be very difficult. Yeah, those are. Our four overlaps are Jessica Hecht, Tala, Ashe Finastrasa, and Helena Wilson. After that, there's talk of Molly Bernard for Cult of Love. Again, I would love for that to happen. I don't think it's going to happen. Alanna Arenas for purpose. Someone put this in because of how much I raved about her in the Purpose review. And listen, she was my favorite performance, and if there's justice, she'll be nominated. I just don't think it's gonna happen. I. I ultimately think that Kara Young is gonna get in there because Kara Young just always gets nominated now. That's sort of how we do these things. And I did not get to see Kara in the role. I saw her understudy, but the role just wasn't as powerful for me as it was Alanna's. But maybe that's just what Kara brings to it. And then also on the bubble, Bianca Lee. I think Bianca Lee is somebody we shouldn't count out either. Yeah. Mention of Molly Griggs. I don't think so. Zoe Deutsch. Really don't think so. Ava Lalizard. I'm sorry, I keep messing up her name. I want to get this right. It's Ava. I think it's Lala Zerda. I'm pretty sure that's how it is. Sorry. Let me. Let me pull it up here. Ava Lala Zarzadeh. Ava Lala Zarzada. I'm gonna. Next, when I do my final predictions, I'm gonna try to find a video of her saying her last name so I can give it the proper pronunciation, because she rules. And her whole oral presentation on Ricky Martin, she bangs, was one of the highlights of the season for me, and I would like to give her her proper due. I don't think she's getting nominated. I think that with the whole company being deemed featured, that just sort of cleared the way for Tala to get in there. But. But, I mean, I would love it if Ava got into. Okay. Featured actor in a musical. Our overlaps are Jack Malone and Is that it? Is that the only one that everyone seems to agree on is Jack Malone? I mean, listen, I guess that sort of shows you who might be. Who's probably the frontrunner in this category, which I'm not. I wouldn't be mad about. I think that Jack gives the best performance in Operation Mincemeat and has the best song. A song that I still think is two and a half minutes too long. But hey, enough people really love it. We also had a listener who was pumping up for David Thaxton. I would love it if Thaxton got nominated, but Thaxton's only represented by two thirds of the listeners here. It's looking like, yeah, about 66%. Taylor Trench in Floyd Collins is being flown about, which I think makes a lot of sense. Tom Sesma for Dead Outlaw also makes a lot of sense. Brooksmanskis is written in here, but I think that's depending on his eligibility. I think he. I think Brooks is going to end up deemed lead for Smash. Same thing with David Hyde Pierce. No one's really sure where David Hyde Pierce goes. He has the last bow in Pirates, but he very much has a featured role. And then there's also talk about sort of maybe happy ending. Whether DEZ Duran or Marcus Choi gets in, Marcus has more to do, but DEZ has the more sort of marketable track he sings throughout the show, which helps them. Danny Burstein isn't being. Isn't fully supported by all the listeners. That's fascinating. Okay, same thing with Jason Gauthe. Honestly, same thing with. With David Thaxton, Michael Urie, Chris Sieber, so. Oh, okay. Writing in Zachary, Noah Peyser, I just, I do. I do actually think Zachary is giving the best performance in Redwood. I just, I don't see that happening. Same thing with Eddie Cooper in Dead Outlaw. But yeah, it's. As of right now, the only one that everyone's sort of fully in agreement on is Jack Malone after that. David Thaxton has a lot of support and I would say Danny Burstein after that. But that's really it. There's. Yeah, this is a wide open category. And speaking of wide open categories, we have featured actress in a musical and this is one where people are a little confused because not everyone's sure where Jinkx Monsoon goes if James Jinx Monsoon goes into lead or featured in Pirates. But we're all sort of just assuming that Jinx is featured. And with that in mind, Natalie Venetia Belcon is complete overlap. Everyone agrees on Natalie. There is. Anyone else? Yeah, just Natalie. There's a lot. There's a lot of support for Grace Hatchet Young for Sunset Boulevard. The There is a lot of support for Julia Niddle for Dead Outlaw as well as Gracie Lawrence for Just In Time, Justina Machado for Real Women have Curves. And mostly agreement on Jinx Monsoon, I would say. I would say if Natalie is the only one that has full support from the listeners, the second tier of majority support would be Justina Machado, Grace Hajit Young and Jinx Monsoon. And then when we're talking about half of the listeners, I would say it's looking like Julia Knittle for Dead Outlaw and Gracie Lawrence for Just In Time. After that, it's sort of a mishmash of. Oh, and Joy. Joy woods has about half of the listeners as well. After that, it's sort of a mishmash of Jordan Tyson and Erica Henningsen, Leslie Margarita, Lea Salonga and Bernadette Peters. There's been some love for Issa Antonetti. I was. I think that Antonetti has better songs than Natalie. Venetia Velcon does But I think that Natalie is giving the better performance, if I'm being perfectly honest. Yeah, it's. It's a tricky one. It's again, it's a wide open field with really, I would say only Natalie is the clear front runner right now, but it's wide open. But so just definitely put money down on her. And then if you want to have any other suggestions, it seems that the listeners are saying Jinx and Joy and Justina are very likely after that an operation Mincemeat lady, whether it's Zoe Roberts or Claire Marie Hall. I, I mean, I would probably go with Claire. Rather I say I would nominate Claire over Zoe. But yeah, I think the question is I don't think it's going to be both. I don't think that there's going to be that much wild support for the show that they both get in when they could spread the love a lot more. And we'll see what happens with Leia and Bernadette. But I'm pretty sure that everyone's going to be deemed featured for this and I've heard nothing but amazing things about Leia, so I look forward to seeing her in a week. Best Actor in a Play. We have Cola Scola overlapping with everyone, Jake Gyllenhaal overlapping. And that is it. After that there is a lot of talk of George Clooney, of Kit Connor, of Daniel Dae Kim and a little bit of Lewis McCartney and Jim Parsons and Denzel Washington. I yeah, I think Cole and Jake are pretty much locks. John Michael Hill is also being mentioned for purpose. I think Cole and Jake are only locks right now. After that it's a sort of a free for all, I think. I do think Clooney's ultimately getting in. I think the idea of having George Clooney attend the Tonys is too tempting for some people. I would love it if Kit got in. I don't think that kids a lock, but I would hope so. And yeah, I think with PBS broadcasting Yellowface around this time and them doing private screenings of it in the industry right now is helping Yellowface's chances for revival, but especially helping Francis Joo and Daniel Dae Kim in their respective categories. So we will see surely enough in a week. But I think it's going to help in the way that Pearly Victoria has helped with its PBS broadcast Actress in a Play. Our overlaps are Sarah Snook, Latonya Richardson Jackson and Laura Donnelly. There's question about Sadie Sink's placement. If you see the show, Sadie doesn't really Feel like a lead. At least she didn't to me. But she is above the title. So right now we're going with the. There's something for it. With the natural. I. I have selection that she would be deemed lead. And if she is deemed lead, then we have enough candidates for five nominations. But if she's not deemed lead, then we only have eight. I think so. Right, because it's, it's. It's Laura Donnelly, Sarah Snook, Patti LuPone, Mia Farrow, Juliana Margulies, Rachel Zegler, Latonya Richardson Jackson, and Sydney Lemon. I think. I think it's just those eight at the moment. So Sadie has to be deemed lead for us to get five nominations. Five nominees in this category. Otherwise it's four. And if it's four, I think Sarah Snook, Laura Donnelly and latonya Richardson Jackson. As we can see, those are pretty much locked in. Mia Farrow is very likely. Not totally locked, but very likely. I would love it if Cindy Lemon got in for Job. It seems that people are forgetting job a lot, which is a shame. Mention of Rachel Zegler. Let's. I don't think that's going to happen. But, you know, we, we love honoring people in the work that they do. Actor in a musical. We have our overlaps as Darren Criss for maybe Happy Ending, Jonathan Groff. Yes. Jonathan Groff for Just In Time, Tom Francis for Sunset Boulevard, and Andrew Duran for Dead Outlaw. Those are our four complete overlaps right now. After that, it's a little swappy swap. We have Jeremy Jordan heavily considered as well as Ramin Karimlu. And then people also wanting to mention Brooks Ashmanskas and Smash, or David Cumming for Operation Mincemeat or Jeb Brown for Dead Outlaw. A few of you mentioning Gray Henson for Elf. We all know how I feel about that. Greg still has my vote for Elf, and I just. It's not happening, unfortunately. I think the four overlaps we have is a strong indicator of who's a lock here. Darren Criss, Jonathan Groff, Tom Francis, and then I guess Andrew Duran for Dead Outlaw. With the reviews of Floyd Collins last night, I think we can safely say that Jeremy Jordan is getting in there. Whether he wins is another matter. But I think that the, the, the ultimate feedback we're getting back is that he does great work in it. Actress in a musical. Our overlaps are Nicole and Audra and Jasmine. No surprise there. And now the question from everyone else is, will Jen and Megan cancel each other out? There is no general consensus here. A lot of Hope for. For Helen, but Helen is not a. I would say Helen is a majority of the listeners. Votes, but not a complete consensus. There's, I think, one or two people who are not convinced that Helen's getting in. 90% of the listeners here seem to think that Helen's getting in, which I would love after that. But there's a flip of whether Megan gets in or Jen gets in. We have somebody who thinks it's going to be Megan, Jen, Nicole, Audra and Jasmine. Someone else who thinks it's going to be Audra, Nicole, Jasmine, Helen and Megan. And someone else who thinks it's going to be Nicole, Audra, Jasmine, Helen and Jen. Someone else who thinks that if Megan and Helen. Megan and Jen cancel each other out, then Tatiana Cordoba gets in there, which would be lovely. I hear she's great in the show. We have our Operation Mincemeat fan here who's convinced that Natasha Hodgson is getting in. I don't. And then a couple people think that she's on the bubble. I don't think she's on the bubble. I really don't. Not when we have. Not when it's this crowded. Not when it's this crowded. Not when we have Audra, Nicole as absolute locks. I would argue Jasmine at this point is an absolute lock. And. And then Helen, who's the lead of the front runner for best musical, we have Adina, who's in a bad musical, but she's very well loved. Sutton, who is in a well respected revival that I didn't really care for. But Sutton is also very well loved. Not to mention Tatiana Cordoba who is supposedly giving a really lovely debut and in a musical that everyone's giving a lot of great word of mouth on. And then Megan and Jen. Yeah, I just don't think that Natasha gets in here and someone else has Robin sort of on the bubble. I don't think Robin's coming in here, but no, possibly. I think Nicole, Audra, Jasmine, those are our three locks. Then after that it's. You have to pick your own adventure of what is the most likely best revival of a play. We have Yellowface and Eureka Day as complete overlaps. After that it kind of shuffles. We have half of, let's say, 75% of the listeners thinking our town gets in there, 75% thinking Glengarry Glen Ross gets in there. And then a couple of scatters of Romeo and Juliet with a possible Othello. I don't think Othello's getting in. They don't need it. And I'm sure there's some resentment about the production itself. So, yeah, Yellowface and Eureka Day, once again, they are at the tippity toppity locked in. And after that, you kind of have to choose your own adventure. I think Glengarry Glen Ross is a very likely bet here. It's that fourth wild card of Our Town, which was respectably received in the fall. I did not like it. I know plenty of others who did not like it, but its reviews were not terrible. Romeo and Juliet, which kind of did get bad reviews and I didn't really like. But it was financially successful and Kit Connor's debut cannot be undersold. And then Othello as well as Home. Home just got that Drama League nomination. And once again, that doesn't really mean anything, but it got in over Our Town, so. Seems the people were more interested in Home than Our town. I couldn't explain that to you. I can't remember a single thing about Home other than I remember liking the two featured actresses in it. Revival of a musical. No surprise. Here we have Gypsy and Sunset all over the map. Pirates, the Penzance musical also completely locked in. And then one person wrote their predictions before Floyd Collins's reviews came out. I would imagine that they are taking that back now because they have last five years instead of Floyd Collins, whereas everyone else has Floyd Collins. I think our four are pretty much set in stone here, right? I think it is Sunset, Gypsy, Pirates and Floyd Collins. Nothing. Nothing more to say. Best play. We have O Mary completely across the board. We have John Proctor as the villain completely across the board. We have Purpose. Completely across the board, we have. I think that's it. Those are. Yeah, John Proctor is the villain. Purpose and oh Mary are the only three plays that everyone predicts after that. Hills of California is predicted by like 75% of the listeners here. English by about 80. 85% it looks like. And then Dorian Gray. Dorian Gray looks to be on the bubble for some and predicted by a few. Goodnight and Good Luck is predicted by one. So if anything, it looks like oh Mary, John Proctor is the villain and Purpose are locked in, set in Stone. English 98% locked in. I think it's 100% locked in, but according to the listeners, 98% and then that fifth slot, up to you. More people think it's Hills of California but are aware that it is vulnerable. But what it's vulnerable towards is kind of up for debate, which is why I also kind of think that Hills of California gets in because people are going, well, Is it going to be Stranger Things? Is it going to be Dorian Gray? Is it going to be Good Night and Good Luck? Could even be Cult of Love. The fact that it's those four, I'm like, I don't know. I think it's Hills of California, baby. So, yeah, put your money on any of those. And then last up, we have Beth's musical Surprise. Surprise. Maybe Happy Ending is considered across the board a lock. Next up across the board is Operation Mincemeat. And then is that. Yeah, I think that's the only one. Those are the only two that everyone is in agreement on. And then 90% are in agreement about Dead Outlaw. I think Dead Outlaws is a luck. I know that there's been some muted responses from previews, but there were muted responses from Floyd Collins and that didn't seem to stop it from getting solid reviews. So maybe Happy Ending, Operation Mincemeat and Dead Outlaw after that, it's looking like Real Women have Curves is a very strong contender. It's sort of second tier of majority, but not 100%. Buena Vista Social Club, also majority, but not 100%. And then death becomes her is predicted by about 40% of the listeners with Old Friends in just in time. Sort of also on the bubble. Boop is also sort of on the bubble here. So it's maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw and Operation Mincemeat. Similar to Score and Book, those are, you know, if you want to have safe money bets, Those are the three. If you then are semi confident but not 100% confident, you would go with Buena Vista Social Club and Real Women have Curves. And then if you wanted to have something that would get you a solid return on investment but isn't a totally safe bet, it would be Death Becomes her followed by Boop. Those seem to be the ones really in the mix. Just in time could get in there. I think Old Friends is kind of out to pasture. I made that prediction a while ago with Half Hour and I. I take it back now. It seems to be just a really lovely but standard Sondheim review with some great performances but nothing that makes you go, oh, my God, what an amazing review. What? Like this is redefining the genre. Like Ain't Misbehavin. I think it's just exactly as you expect it to be. So, yeah, I think on May 1st we can expect maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw and Operation Mincemeat. I think Buena Vista Social Club and Real Women have Curves should be working hard to ensure their locks here. And then Death Becomes her and boop. Should be working extra, extra hard to try to shove one of them out. I think Death Becomes her is primed to knock one of these gals out. But nothing is. Nothing is set in stone. I don't know. Real women that have curves could end up not getting critically well received and that could be reflected in the Tony nominations. It wouldn't be the first time that word of mouth from previews does not reflect the reception from critics. And the Tonys, again, look at the inverse of that with Floyd Collins and even Smash. They, you know, they were not given good word of mouth. And I would say Smash's reviews were not overall incredible. They got a couple of raves from some very prominent critics, but they definitely got some trashy notices too. I don't think Smash is getting in for musical or book, but also, I don't know, anything could happen. Yeah, this is, I think if this is telling us anything, it's that there are very few sure things this season, which makes it a very exciting season. Every category has about two or three locks, but then as well about two or three possibly, you know, on the fence nominations, which makes May 1st very exciting to wait for. I will give my final predictions in a couple of days. Mostly they will be informed there. At that point there will only be two shows that I hadn't seen yet. One I saw off Broadway but not on Broadway, and I will give my final predictions on that day. If you like the podcast, y' all make sure to give us a nice five star rating or review. We have since broken 300 on Apple Podcasts and we are hoping to just keep going. I want to give I think his name is Matthew a quick shout out because he wrote, he told me he wrote a review for the podcast and I couldn't find it on Apple so I had to go to a different website to find it and I. I'm pretty sure this is him. I hope it's him. If it's not, I'm sorry. Matthew, please let me know if the review showed up for you on Apple Podcasts. Cue the Light of the Piazza Overture Music Love from the West coast as someone who lives on the west coast and flies into the city specifically to see shows, it's so good to have Matt's insights to be able to prioritize what I see and when. I don't always agree with Matt's reviews, but even then I generally understand where he is coming from all around. So grateful to have discovered this podcast. Keep Shining Matt. Thank you. What do you mean you don't always agree with me. Everyone should always agree with me all the time. Always. Isn't that how arts work? I have the one correct opinion and everyone else just falls in line. I think it's always important to share your opinions in a way that people understand where you're coming from and can see what you're talking about. They may not always agree, but they can see. I was with someone yesterday, two days ago. Oh, my friend John. Not with Scavenge, different John. And we were talking about it might have been Gypsy, might have been something else, might have been Boop. Because he didn't care for Boop and I understood why and I was explaining to him why I found Boop to be a mess, but overall, really enjoyable. And he, he just kept saying, oh, yeah, that's fair. Oh, that's fair. And I was like, am I secretly selling Boop to people who were on the fence by. By telling them up front? It's not objectively well done, but it is objectively a fun time. I don't know. I don't know. Maybe I'm undermining the qualities of Boop by saying as such. But Jesse Green's review for it was also weird. So who's to say anymore? That is going to be it for this one. This was a short one, but that's because I. I had you guys like the charge this time. I will do my final, final, final predictions again on Monday and I will have at least one review episode before then. Maybe, maybe I do two episodes back to back. Maybe, maybe I do the predictions on Tuesday and the review Monday. Yeah, I think that's what I'm gonna do. I think I'm gonna do my. I'm gonna do a whole review that drops Monday and it'll be Pirates, Floyd Collins, and just in Time. And then I will do. Because there is another show that I have press seats for after Tony nominations, but I was invited to see it at a press performance with someone else this weekend. So I will not be reviewing that show until I see my press performance. But I will have seen it by the time I do my predictions. I know it's very, very coded, but you can figure out what I'm talking about. So, yes, I will do a final. I will do another review episode for Monday and then Tuesday will be final, final predictions and then we'll do a response to the nominations either Thursday or Friday next week. And then my final reviews of the rest of the shows that season after that, and then a rankings and then London and then back to Tony's, and then everything is going to be phenomenal. All right, so for. For this episode, the diva, I think we should close out with. I said, you know what? I had us close out with Jen last time. I then said, megan can get the next one. So we're gonna close out with Megan. We will close out with Megan Hilty of Miss Death becomes her fame. All right, that's it. Thank you so much, guys. We'll see you soon. Take it away, Megan. Bye.
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Do you know who you're talking to? I am close. Middle and Ashton, a stunning delight in an otherwise disappointing franchise.
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End quote.
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Let me tell you something, Chance. I hope you enjoy being young and a man in Hollywood, because I have to sleep upside down every night like a bat just to give my body a break from gravity. You smug, weak, young, smooth, supple, youthful skin. Give it to me. Give me your skin again. Oh, I don't want to hurt you. I just want your skin. Must stop time Got to get the years erased Got to get a brand new face.