Broadway Breakdown: 2025 Tony Noms – Listener Predictions

Host: Matt Koplik
Date: April 24, 2025
Episode Theme:
Matt Koplik takes an irreverent, data-driven, and delightfully sweary look at the upcoming 2025 Tony Award nominations, relying on predictions submitted by his listeners via Discord. The episode breaks down category by category, explores consensus picks and passionate outliers, and highlights the excitement (and uncertainty) of this Broadway season’s race.

Episode Overview

This episode is all about Tony Award nomination predictions, but with a twist—Matt is reflecting on listener opinions and dissecting the Broadway rumor mill with his signature candor and deep knowledge of the field. The episode leans heavy on design and technical categories, then moves into book, score, directing, performance, and the big awards, always highlighting moments of agreement, debate, and sheer theatrical passion.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Introduction & Awards Context (00:00–09:30)

• Matt bemoans recurring Discord technical woes, highlights how listeners can connect for predictions, and praises the communal spirit generated by Broadway fans.
• On the Drama League Awards: Matt explains that these, along with the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle, are not true Tony precursors:

  “There is no overlap in the voting pool. They have different criteria for eligibility and nominations … ultimately, these award bodies are not actual precursors for the Tonys.” – Matt (04:28)

• Memorable Moment: A tongue-in-cheek commentary on nomination bloat and “pay to play”:

  “We have more nominees for the Drama League in performance than we did last year for every category for performance at the Tonys…” – Matt (05:54)

• Although these auxiliary awards can generate buzz, Matt stresses: “What does it tell us about the Tony nominations? Ultimately, nothing. But congratulations to everyone.” (07:58)

Technical Categories Breakdown

Sound Design of a Play (09:30–11:25)

• Consensus picks:
  • Stranger Things (considered a “lock”)
  • Dorian Gray (highly likely)
  • Good Night and Good Luck (technically savvy, strong contender)
• John Proctor is the Villain and Omari in the mix, but Matt questions their likelihood for sound.
• Matt’s take:

  “Stranger Things, I think we can also consider that a lock…” (10:48)
  “I disagree with John Proctor is the Villain. But… Stranger Things.” (11:08)

Sound Design of a Musical (11:25–14:53)

• Overlaps: Buena Vista Social Club, Maybe Happy Ending, Sunset Boulevard.
• Other contenders: Dead Outlaw, Just In Time, Death Becomes Her, Operation Mincemeat.
• Notable dissents: Matt critiques Operation Mincemeat and Death Becomes Her, claiming the latter’s lyrics “do not carry over across the stage often.”
• On surprises:

  “Every year there are nominations that make you kind of scratch your head…” (12:41)

Costume Design (Play) (15:00–17:00)

• Overlaps: O Mary, Dorian Gray, Stranger Things (with emphasis on Dorian Gray’s Olivier win).
• Notable mentions: English, Hills of California (for period detail).
• Matt adds: “I think Omari and Dorian Gray are closer to locks.”

Costume Design (Musical) (17:01–19:45)

• Locks: Death Becomes Her, Boop.
• Strongly considered: Pirates, Buena Vista Social Club, Maybe Happy Ending, Mincemeat, Just In Time.
• Matt reflects: Sometimes the Tonys reward “most, if not necessarily best.”

Lighting Design (Play) (19:46–22:30)

• Locks: Dorian Gray, Stranger Things.
• Others: John Proctor is the Villain (listeners bullish); praise for Hills of California, Romeo and Juliet (“The lighting was really neat … Euphoria Shakespeare” – 21:11)

Lighting Design (Musical) (22:30–24:53)

• Consensus: Maybe Happy Ending, Death Becomes Her, Sunset Boulevard, Operation Mincemeat.
• Floyd Collins, Dead Outlaw, Swept Away: strong “fifth slot” contenders.

Scenic Design (Play) (24:53–27:39)

• Locks: Stranger Things (“you really can't ignore that – it's so much set”), John Proctor is the Villain, Eureka Day.
• Notables: Hills of California (“fucking slapped”), Good Night and Good Luck, Cult of Love, McNeil.

Scenic Design (Musical) (27:39–29:43)

• Strong picks: Death Becomes Her, Maybe Happy Ending (“is more of the leading design”), Just In Time.
• Others: Boop, Buena Vista Social Club, Pirates, Redwood (noted for its computer graphics – divisive), Swept Away and Mincemeat (“could happen” but unlikely).

Orchestrations (29:44–32:23)

• Overlaps: The Last Five Years (“way for the Tonys to honor Jason Robert Brown”), Dead Outlaw, Maybe Happy Ending.
• Other notable possibilities: Floyd Collins, Pirates, Mincemeat, Real Women Have Curves, Death Becomes Her, Boop, and jukebox musicals Just In Time, Buena Vista Social Club, Swept Away.
• On Buena Vista Social Club: “Might be considered not different enough in terms of arrangements from the album… but I have to believe that it'll be eligible.”

Post-Break: Major Categories

Book & Score (32:24–36:00)

• Book Overlaps: Operation Mincemeat, Death Becomes Her, Maybe Happy Ending, Real Women Have Curves (“close to a lock”), Dead Outlaw.
• Score Overlaps: Maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, Mincemeat.
• On Death Becomes Her: Matt notes its score “has gone from sort of passable to amazing for me on a re-listen… There are certain songs that I like a whole lot more from the cast album now than I did in the theater.” (34:43)
• Real Women Have Curves and Boop remain bubble contenders.

Best Choreography (36:01–38:35)

• Locks: Justin Peck & Patricia Delgado (Buena Vista Social Club – probable front runner), Jerry Mitchell (Boop).
• Other significant contenders: Camille A. Brown (Gypsy), Chris Catelli (Death Becomes Her), Warren Carlyle (Pirates).
• Chris Gattelli and Sergio Trujillo get scattered support (Death Becomes Her, Real Women Have Curves).

Direction of Play & Musical (38:36–43:41)

• Play – Overlaps: Sam Pinkleton (Oh Mary), Donya Taymor (John Proctor is the Villain), Phylicia Rashad (Purpose), Kip Williams (Dorian Gray).
• Sam Mendes (Hills of California) and Stephen Daldry (Stranger Things) considered on the bubble.
• Musical – Overlaps: Jamie Lloyd (Sunset Boulevard), Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending).
• Major support but not full consensus for: George C. Wolfe (Gypsy), Chris Catelli (Death Becomes Her), Robert Hasty (Operation Mincemeat).
• Matt predicts Cromer (Dead Outlaw), Arden, Lloyd as near-locks.

Performance Categories

Featured Actor in a Play (43:42–46:24)

• Full Consensus: Conrad Ricamora (Oh Mary), Bill Burr (Glengarry Glen Ross).
  • Others considered: Francis Jue (Yellowface), Bob Odenkirk/Kieran Culkin (Glengarry), Bill Irwin (Eureka Day), Zachary Quinto (Cult of Love), Andrew Burnap (Othello).
• Matt’s “dream lineup” includes Glenn Davis (Purpose), Scully over Ricamora (Oh Mary) – but acknowledges unpredictability.

Featured Actress in a Play (46:25–50:31)

• Overlaps: Jessica Hecht (Eureka Day), Tala Ashe (English), Fina Strazza (John Proctor is the Villain), Helena Wilson (Hills of California).
• Others: Molly Bernard (Cult of Love), Alanna Arenas (Purpose), Kara Young (noted “just always gets nominated now”), Bianca Lee, Ava Lala Zarzadeh.
• Memorable Moment: Shoutout to Ava Lala Zarzadeh’s oral presentation on “She Bangs” as “one of the highlights of the season.” (49:52)

Featured Actor in a Musical (50:32–53:07)

• Unanimous: Jack Malone (Operation Mincemeat).
• Strong support: David Thaxton, Danny Burstein, Taylor Trensch (Floyd Collins), Tom Sesma (Dead Outlaw).
• Major category ambiguity (Brooks Ashmanskas, David Hyde Pierce), with specialization in this year’s lack of consensus.

Featured Actress in a Musical (53:08–57:53)

• Full consensus: Natalie Venetia Belcon.
• Next tier support: Justina Machado (Real Women Have Curves), Grace Hajit Young (Sunset), Jinkx Monsoon (Pirates), Julia Knittle (Dead Outlaw), Gracie Lawrence (Just In Time), Joy Woods.
• Key uncertainty: Where will Jinkx Monsoon be placed—lead or featured?
• Matt: “I think that Natalie is giving the better performance, if I'm being perfectly honest.” (56:22)

Lead Actor in a Play (57:54–59:48)

• Locks: Cole Escola (Oh Mary), Jake Gyllenhaal.
• Strong consideration: George Clooney, Kit Connor, Daniel Dae Kim.
• Matt expects Clooney’s star power to “prove too tempting” for nominators; Kit Connor and Yellowface actors are “helped” by PBS broadcasts.

Lead Actress in a Play (59:49–01:01:38)

• Locks: Sarah Snook, LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Laura Donnelly.
• Mia Farrow (“very likely”), with uncertainty over Sadie Sink’s category placement.
• Noted: “If she's [Sadie] not deemed lead, then we only have eight [potential nominees].”

Lead Actor in a Musical (01:01:39–01:03:44)

• Overlaps: Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending), Jonathan Groff (Just In Time), Tom Francis (Sunset Boulevard), Andrew Duran (Dead Outlaw).
• Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins) expected to be included given recent reviews.
• Potential consideration for Ramin Karimloo, Brooks Ashmanskas (Smash), Jeb Brown (Dead Outlaw), Gray Henson (Elf).

Lead Actress in a Musical (01:03:45–01:06:11)

• Locks: Nicole, Audra, Jasmine (“No surprise there.”)
• Big question: Will Jen and Megan (Gypsy) “cancel each other out?”
• Helen gets majority support but not consensus; Tatiana Cordoba (debut in a musical with great word of mouth) considered as a wild card.
• Matt doubts Natasha Hodgson (Mincemeat) makes it with this year’s crowd.

Revival, Play, and Musical of the Year (01:06:12–01:14:45)

Revival of a Play

• Locks: Yellowface and Eureka Day.
• Strong consideration for: Our Town, Glengarry Glen Ross, Romeo and Juliet.
• Home is a “wild card” after its Drama League nomination.

Revival of a Musical

• Unanimous: Gypsy, Sunset Boulevard, Pirates, Floyd Collins (“pretty much set in stone”).

Best Play

• Locks: O Mary, John Proctor is the Villain, Purpose (complete consensus).
• English (very probable), fifth slot up for grabs (Hills of California seems likely, but could go to Dorian Gray, Stranger Things, Good Night and Good Luck, or Cult of Love).
• Matt’s logic: “If anything, it looks like Hills of California gets in because people can’t agree on which alternative will bump it.”

Best Musical

• Locks: Maybe Happy Ending, Operation Mincemeat (everyone agrees).
• Dead Outlaw (vast majority, Matt calls it a lock).
• Real Women Have Curves and Buena Vista Social Club strongly in the mix.
• Death Becomes Her, Boop, Just In Time, Old Friends on the bubble.
• Matt sums it up: “There are very few sure things this season, which makes it a very exciting season. Every category has about two or three locks, but then … two or three possibly on-the-fence nominations.” (01:14:00)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Sometimes the Tonys do really think about most, if not necessarily best.” (19:25)
• “Lighting was really neat in Romeo and Juliet. It was very Euphoria Shakespeare.” (21:11)
• “I am the least famous and most opinionated of all the Broadway podcast hosts.” (00:52)
• On ambiguous categories: “If it were up to me, I would make this category: Bill Burr for Glengarry Glen Ross, Francis Jue for Yellowface, Andrew Burnap for Othello … Glenn Davis for Purpose. That would be my five.” (44:59)
• On personal taste: “Am I secretly selling Boop to people who were on the fence by telling them up front ‘it’s not objectively well done, but it is objectively a fun time?’” (01:16:03)
• Final advice: “Nothing is set in stone … Which makes May 1st very exciting to wait for.” (01:14:27)

Useful Timestamps

• Discord/Drama League/Precursors Rant: 00:00–09:30
• Technical Categories Start: 09:31
• Orchestrations: 29:44
• Book/Score/Directing/Acting Categories Start: 32:24
• Featured Actor/Actress (Play & Musical): 43:41–57:53
• Leads (Play & Musical): 57:54–01:06:11
• Revival/Play/Musical: 01:06:12–01:14:45
• Final Wrap & Listener Shoutout: 01:14:45–End

Tone & Takeaways

Matt maintains his signature style: witty, foul-mouthed at times, deeply informed, and extremely transparent about his own biases as well as the wild unpredictability of this awards season. He’s honest when he disagrees with the group, ready with praise (and skepticism) for overhyped shows, and always rooting for a little Broadway chaos.

His bottom line: This is a season of uncertainty and possibility; trust only a few “locks,” expect some shockers, and don’t sleep on the smaller, quirkier choices—all with a dash of snark and hope.

For Matt’s final predictions and post-nomination reactions, tune in to Broadway Breakdown on May 1st and the week following!