Broadway Breakdown: 2025 Tony Noms – Listener Predictions
Release Date: April 24, 2025
Host: Matt Koplik
Introduction
In the latest episode of Broadway Breakdown, host Matt Koplik delves into the highly anticipated Tony Award nominations with a focus on listener predictions sourced from the podcast’s Discord channel. Matt navigates through various award categories, offering his unfiltered opinions, expert analysis, and engaging commentary on the potential nominees and winners. This episode, titled "2025 Tony Noms: Listener Predictions," provides a comprehensive overview for theater enthusiasts eager to gauge the landscape of this year’s Broadway honors.
Understanding the Drama League and Its Influence
Matt begins by addressing the recent release of the Drama League nominations, congratulating all nominees but emphasizing their limited predictive value for the Tonys.
“Ultimately everything and everyone was nominated,” Matt states at [01:07], highlighting the Drama League’s broad recognition approach. He elaborates on the distinct differences between the Drama League, Drama Desk, Outer Critics Circle, and the Tony Awards, noting:
“There is no overlap in the voting pool. They have different criteria for eligibility and nominations.” ([01:36])
Matt acknowledges that while these awards can generate buzz, they rarely serve as reliable indicators for Tony nominations. He underscores that the Drama League’s expansive nominations often include both Broadway and Off-Broadway productions, which do not directly translate to Tony voters’ preferences.
Listener Predictions: Discord Channel Insights
Transitioning to the core of the episode, Matt discusses the listener predictions gathered from the Discord channel. He categorizes the predictions by award categories, analyzing overlaps and offering his perspective on each potential nominee.
Best Sound Design of a Play
Predicted Nominees:
- Stranger Things
- John Proctor is the Villain
- Dorian Gray
- Good Night and Good Luck
- Omari
Matt observes a consensus around Stranger Things and John Proctor is the Villain.
“Stranger Things. I think we can also consider that a lock,” Matt asserts at [03:45], indicating strong support for its sound design.
He expresses skepticism about John Proctor is the Villain being nominated for sound, noting the show’s limited use of sound effects. Nonetheless, the overwhelming support from listeners keeps it in contention.
“Stranger Things seems to be safe options,” he concludes, while slightly withholding judgment on Omari and John Proctor is the Villain.
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Predicted Nominees:
- Buena Vista Social Club
- Happy Ending
- Sunset Boulevard
- Dead Outlaw
Matt identifies Death Becomes Her and Buena Vista Social Club as frontrunners.
“Death becomes her and Boop are right up there,” Matt remarks at [09:20], emphasizing their strong chances based on listener input.
He critiques Mincemeat and Death Becomes Her for perceived sound design weaknesses but ultimately supports their nomination due to listener enthusiasm.
Best Costume Design
For a Play:
- Omari
- Dorian Gray
- Stranger Things
For a Musical:
- Death Becomes Her
- Boop
Matt highlights Omari, Stranger Things, and Dorian Gray as strong contenders for plays, citing their period-specific and visually compelling designs.
“Dorian Gray won costumes at the Olivier Awards, and so that's something to consider,” he notes at [05:15].
In the musical category, Death Becomes Her and Boop emerge as clear favorites.
“I think Death Becomes her and Boop. Everyone's sort of. Yeah, those are the top two,” Matt explains at [13:30].
Best Lighting Design
Predicted Nominees:
- Dorian Gray
- Stranger Things
- John Proctor is the Villain
- Good Night and Good Luck
Matt firmly supports Dorian Gray and Stranger Things as top contenders.
“Dorian Gray and Stranger Things are totally locked in,” he affirms at [16:45].
He acknowledges John Proctor is the Villain and Good Night and Good Luck as possible nominees but remains cautious about their likelihood compared to the frontrunners.
Best Scenic Design
Predicted Nominees:
- Eureka Day
- John Proctor is the Villain
- Stranger Things
- Hills of California
Matt advocates for Eureka Day, John Proctor is the Villain, and Stranger Things as leading candidates.
“Stranger Things, absolutely. It's so much set,” he states at [21:10], underscoring its comprehensive scenic design.
He remains optimistic about Hills of California, despite some listener reservations.
Best Orchestrations
Predicted Nominees:
- Happy Ending
- Dead Outlaw
- Operation Mincemeat
Matt identifies Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, and Operation Mincemeat as frontrunners.
“Happy ending, which makes sense. It's the front runner for musical and score right now,” Matt remarks at [26:00].
He dismisses Sunset Boulevard’s eligibility, focusing instead on shows that have reimagined orchestrations or introduced new arrangements.
Best Book of a Musical
Predicted Nominees:
- Mincemeat
- Operation Mincemeat
- Death Becomes Her
- Happy Ending
- Real Women Have Curves
Matt categorizes Mincemeat, Operation Mincemeat, and Death Becomes Her as the primary contenders.
“I think Dead Outlaw, Mincemeat and maybe Happy Ending are pretty much locks,” he asserts at [33:25].
He cautions against overestimating Buena Vista Social Club’s chances without a corresponding book nomination, referencing past Tony patterns.
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
- Happy Ending
- Dead Outlaw
- Operation Mincemeat
- Death Becomes Her
- Real Women Have Curves
Matt emphasizes Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, and Operation Mincemeat as definitive locks.
“Happy ending, Dead Outlaw, Operation Mincemeat for Score,” he summarizes at [36:50].
He notes that the release of Death Becomes Her's cast album could bolster its score nomination chances, despite his personal reservations.
Best Choreography
Predicted Nominees:
- Buena Vista Social Club – Justin Peck & Patricia Delgado
- BOOP – Jerry Mitchell
- Gypsy – Camille A. Brown
- Pirates – Warren Carlyle
Matt identifies Buena Vista Social Club’s Justin Peck & Patricia Delgado and BOOP’s Jerry Mitchell as frontrunners.
“Justin Peck and Patricia Delgado for Buena Vista Social Club and Jerry Mitchell for BOOP are the two that everyone agrees on,” he notes at [45:00].
He remains open to Gypsy and Pirates, citing their innovative choreography but acknowledges that they lack unanimous support.
Best Director of a Play
Predicted Nominees:
- O'Mary – Sam Pinkleton
- John Proctor is the Villain – Donya Taymor
- Purpose – Phylicia Rashad
- Picture of Dorian Gray – Kip Williams
Matt champions Sam Pinkleton (O'Mary) and Donya Taymor (John Proctor is the Villain) as likely nominees.
“Sam Pinkleton, Donya Taymor, and Phylicia Rashad are nominees we can all get on board with,” he states at [50:00].
He expresses reservations about Kip Williams (Dorian Gray) due to mixed reviews but acknowledges the production’s impressive elements.
Best Director of a Musical
Predicted Nominees:
- Happy Ending – Michael Arden
- Sunset Boulevard – Jamie Lloyd
Matt identifies Michael Arden and Jamie Lloyd as the front-runners.
“Jamie Lloyd for Sunset Boulevard and Michael Arden for Happy Ending are the only two that everyone seems to be totally on board with,” he comments at [58:30].
He mentions George C. Wolfe (Gypsy) and Chris Catelli (Death Becomes Her) as strong but not consensus nominees.
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Predicted Nominees:
- O'Mary – Conrad Rick Amora
- Glengarry Glen Ross – Bill Burr
Matt asserts these two as locks.
“Bill Burr for Glengarry Glen Ross and Conrad Rick Amora for O'Mary, which I think are absolutely happening,” he declares at [63:20].
Other potential nominees include Francis Zhu (Yellowface) and Bob Odenkirk (Glengarry Glen Ross), though Matt expresses less confidence in their chances.
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Predicted Nominees:
- Eureka Day – Jessica Hecht
- English – Tala Ashe
- John Proctor is the Villain – Finistrasa
- Hills of California – Helena Wilson
Matt advocates for Jessica Hecht, Tala Ashe, Finistrasa, and Helena Wilson as strong contenders.
“Jessica Hecht for Eureka Day. Totally. I see that happening,” he affirms at [66:15].
He adds that while listener enthusiasm is high, the category remains competitive with emerging talent like Alanna Arenas for Purpose and Kara Young.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Predicted Nominees:
- Operation Mincemeat – Jack Malone
- Floyd Collins – Jeremy Jordan
- Dead Outlaw – Tom Sesma
Matt recognizes Jack Malone as the clear frontrunner.
“The only one that everyone seems to agree on is Jack Malone,” he states at [70:10].
He acknowledges Jeremy Jordan’s strong performance in Floyd Collins as a significant contender but remains uncertain about others like David Thaxton and Danny Burstein.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Predicted Nominees:
- Operation Mincemeat – Natalie Venetia Belcon
Matt highlights Natalie Venetia Belcon as the primary consensus nominee.
“I would say if Natalie is the only one that has full support from the listeners, the second tier would be Justina Machado, Grace Hatchet Young, and Jinx Monsoon,” he explains at [75:00].
He notes the category is wide open with additional support for performers like Julia Knittle (Dead Outlaw) and Gracie Lawrence (Just In Time).
Final Predictions and Wrap-Up
Matt concludes by summarizing the most consistent frontrunners across multiple categories, emphasizing the unpredictability of this Tony season.
“There are very few sure things this season, which makes it a very exciting season,” he reflects at [80:00].
He announces plans for upcoming episodes, including final predictions and reviews of the most anticipated shows like Pirates, Floyd Collins, and Just in Time. Matt encourages listeners to engage with the podcast through ratings and reviews, celebrating the community’s growing support.
“If you like the podcast, y'all make sure to give us a nice five-star rating or review,” Matt urges at [83:00].
Notable Moments & Quotes
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Tom's Tech Troubles: Early in the episode, Matt humorously addresses technical issues with the Discord channel links:
“I think you’re on mute.” [00:28]
-
Drama League Critique: Matt openly criticizes the Drama League’s nomination process:
“I just don't totally buy the drama leagues.” [02:15]
-
Listener Interaction: Highlighting community engagement, Matt references a listener’s comment:
“Everyone should always agree with me all the time. Always.” [69:00]
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Final Thoughts: Reflecting his passionate stance on theater, Matt emphasizes the subjective nature of awards:
“I think it's always important to share your opinions in a way that people understand where you're coming from and can see what you're talking about.” [70:50]
Conclusion
This episode of Broadway Breakdown serves as a thorough exploration of the upcoming Tony nominations, enriched by listener input and Matt’s candid analyses. Covering a diverse array of categories, Matt provides valuable insights while maintaining his characteristic candidness and enthusiasm. Whether you’re a Broadway veteran or a casual theatergoer, this episode offers a detailed roadmap to navigating 2025’s Tony Awards landscape.
Note: This summary excludes advertisements and non-content sections to focus solely on the substantive discussions relevant to the Tony Award nominations.