Broadway Breakdown: 2025 Tonys — Predictions and Personal Picks w/ Sam Ekman

Podcast: Broadway Breakdown
Host: Matt Koplik
Guest: Sam Ekman (Gold Derby)
Date: June 5, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Matt Koplik and returning guest Sam Ekman (of Gold Derby fame) go all-in on the 2025 Tony Awards: making predictions, revealing their personal picks, and dissecting what might tip the scales in hotly contested categories. Expect deeply opinionated takes, inside industry gossip, a few four-letter words, and a spirited, affectionate celebration of (and occasional exasperation with) the Broadway season.

Their approach blends statistics, gut feelings, and personal taste, with Matt and Sam frequently debating and split on picks—ideal for those following Tony odds or simply hoping to catch up on the season’s highs, lows, and biggest surprises.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

General State of Tony Season

• Unpredictability: With few “locks” this year, predicting the Tonys is especially challenging and exciting. Sam notes, “There’s not a lot of locks, I think, going into this Tony Sunday. So it makes the telecast much more exciting when we don’t know what’s happening.” (01:37)
• Changing Winds: Both discuss how recent events and industry chatter (including off-record Tony voter opinions) have quickly shifted frontrunners in some categories.

Design & Technical Categories

Sound Design of a Play

Nominees: Stranger Things, John Proctor is the Villain, Good Night and Good Luck, The Hills of California, The Picture of Dorian Gray

• Predictions:
  • Sam: "Stranger Things is pretty locked here.” (05:05)
  • Matt: Torn between Stranger Things and Picture of Dorian Gray, ultimately sides with Dorian Gray as a potential spoiler.
• Personal Votes: Both agree Stranger Things would get their professional vote for the immersive, bombastic stagecraft.

Memorable Quote:
"You remember the freaking mind flayer coming down out of the ceiling and it has a million moments like that.”
— Sam Ekman (16:29)

Sound Design of a Musical

Nominees: Buena Vista Social Club, Sunset Boulevard, Just in Time, Maybe Happy Ending, Floyd Collins

• Predictions:
  • Sam: Sunset Boulevard
  • Matt: Goes against his own analytical instincts, selecting Just in Time for possible surround-sound appeal, despite Drama Desk crossovers being unreliable.
• Personal Votes: Both favor Sunset Boulevard for crafting an orchestral sound much larger than its actual size.

Lighting Design

• Musical: Both pick and would vote for Sunset Boulevard, with Maybe Happy Ending as a close second due to striking projection synergy.
• Play: Both choose Stranger Things for its full-throttle, atmospheric spectacle.

Costume Design

• Musical: Sam predicts Death Becomes Her (Paul Tazewell on a hot streak), Matt hedges with Boop, both adore the boldness and spectacle in Death Becomes Her.
  • “If Death Becomes Her’s costuming is making us say the words ‘smoking hole’ and ‘vagina hood’, I think it should win the Tony.” — Sam Ekman (22:11)
• Play: Matt is swayed by Sam’s argument for Picture of Dorian Gray (Olivier precedent, transformative design); originally favored Oh, Mary! for period whimsy.

Scenic Design

• Musical: Both call Maybe Happy Ending a lock for innovative, transformative use of space and technology (29:41).
• Play: Predict Stranger Things (MC Escher-style set), but both would give their personal vote to The Hills of California for its immersive realism.

Orchestrations

• Both admit this category is difficult to call, noting “there’s no historical pattern” (32:50).
• Sam: Picks Buena Vista Social Club for infectious, full sound.
• Matt: Chooses Just in Time as a possible spoiler, personally prefers Floyd Collins.

Choreography

• Both predict Buena Vista Social Club (Justin Peck/Patricia Delgado) to win, with Boop as a strong runner-up.
  • “I just… never bet against Justin Peck at the Tonys anymore.” — Matt (37:58)
• Both would personally vote for Buena Vista Social Club.

Writing, Direction, and Major Artistic Categories

Best Book of a Musical

• Wide-open field—both agree Maybe Happy Ending is vulnerable.
• Sam: Predicts Death Becomes Her as the “funniest book” often wins (think Tootsie, Gentleman's Guide).
• Matt: Goes with Maybe Happy Ending believing it will eek out a plurality due to general goodwill, but lists Death Becomes Her as his close second.

Best Original Score

• Both: Predict Maybe Happy Ending, noting its sweepy, romantic sound and broad appeal.
• Personal Picks: Matt admires Death Becomes Her’s densely clever lyrics, while Sam also notes its “amazing jokes” but acknowledges Maybe Happy Ending as the favorite.

Direction

• Director of a Play: Both pick Sam Pinkleton (Oh, Mary!) for handling Cole Escola’s high camp so deftly. Pinkleton’s direction credited for the show’s resilience even with cast changes (56:55, 57:09).
• Director of a Musical: Shift from Jamie Lloyd (Sunset) to Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending) due to late momentum and the collaborative tone of his campaign, despite recent Tony win (59:53–63:50).

Performance Categories

Featured Roles

Featured Actress (Play):

• Very open field! Sam predicts an upset for Fina Strazza (Proctor), citing late-breaking show momentum and her pivotal role; Matt’s gut says Kara Young but admits it’s not a “locky” lock (67:28–73:29).

Featured Actor (Play):

• Both favor Francis Jue (Yellowface) for his endearing, hilarious, and moving performance, especially with the PBS broadcast keeping him fresh in voters’ minds (74:45–78:34).

Featured Actor (Musical):

• Jack Malone (Operation Mincemeat) seen as a “lock” for his show-stopping number and breakout season, with Taylor Trensch and Danny Burstein named as possible distant upsets.

Featured Actress (Musical):

• Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club) expected to win, due to industry respect and last season’s overlooked Drama Desk win.
• Sam sees Julianne Idol (Dead Outlaw) as notable runner-up.

Leading Roles

Lead Actress (Play):

• Both see Sarah Snook (Picture of Dorian Gray) as the hands-down favorite and worthy winner.
• Personal pick: Laura Donnelly (The Hills of California)—Matt: "That’s the kind of performance I gravitate towards…"

Lead Actor (Play):

• Both predict Cole Escola (Oh, Mary!), calling it a landslide victory and a landmark queer win (104:18-105:01).

Lead Actor (Musical):

• Both predict Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending) but with caution. Jonathan Groff (Just in Time) and Tom Francis (Sunset) have viable paths. Darren is praised for nuanced, physically and emotionally rich performance (“…he does such interesting physical work with that character…” — Sam, 102:04). Matt’s personal vote: Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins), but says “Darren is a delightful human being in a delightful show.” (101:27)

Lead Actress (Musical) — The Category of Chaos:

• Debate centers on Audra McDonald (Gypsy), Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset), Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop), and Megan Hilty (Death Becomes Her).
• Matt makes a bold prediction: Jasmine Amy Rogers, citing an "Aida scenario" where the big new star sweeps in non-major categories. Sam sticks with Audra, moved by her transformation in Gypsy and unique interpretation. Both agree Jasmine is a formidable new ingenue with breakout potential—even if she doesn't win, she's the future.
  • “She’s a Gen Z-er I can get behind—that’s my championing of Jasmine Amy Rogers.” — Matt (120:30)

Top Prize Races

Revival of a Play:

• Yellowface is predicted to win due to timeliness, impactful PBS broadcast, and a strong campaign; Eureka Day as a significant challenger.

Revival of a Musical:

• Sunset Boulevard is the safe prediction due to Jamie Lloyd’s directorial vision and the lack of other director nominations; Floyd Collins would be Matt’s personal pick and the chaos option.

Best Play:

• Both agree: Oh, Mary! is the likely (and deserving) winner—a commercial, critical, and queer success story.
  • “It is the story of the season. It’s the success of the season. Its very existence is political…” — Matt (106:38)
• Matt’s personal favorite: The Hills of California.

Best Musical:

• Both pick Maybe Happy Ending as a lock, noting its “true success story” narrative and passionate industry and audience support.
  • Death Becomes Her cited as the only feasible spoiler, though that would require additional major wins.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Matt on legacy categories:
  “Sometimes they go with the simple but effective and they'll take you by surprise.” (25:27)

• Sam on Death Becomes Her’s costumes:
  “If Death Becomes Her’s costuming is making us say the words ‘smoking hole’ and ‘vagina hood,’ I think it should win the Tony, especially for its cultural contributions.” (22:11)

• Matt (on Oh, Mary! as a queer, commercial hit):
  “This is the ultimate revenge on this administration—is how much fucking money it has made, proving this is a lucrative, viable way to enjoy your life and fuck anyone else who says differently.” (108:36)

• On Jasmine Amy Rogers:
  “Not everything in Boop worked for me, but I cannot wait to see this woman take over Broadway.” — Sam (120:30)
  “She’s such a force in that show and really kind of carries the whole thing on her petite, Gen Z shoulders.” — Matt (122:02)

• On the chaos of the Tony season:
  “There are a couple categories where I do think whoever wins is winning with 29% of the vote... It’s not going to be a landslide.” — Matt (43:33)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:49] Opening with Sound Design Discussion
• [10:28] Matt's "precursor awards don’t matter" mantra, Discord Channel Drama Desk fallout
• [16:25] Lighting & design sweep discussion (Stranger Things, Life of Pi precedent)
• [22:11] “Vagina hood” costumes commentary
• [31:04] Scenic design: love for Hills of California’s set
• [37:58] Justin Peck never bet against Tonys
• [53:13] On complexities of witty/comedic scores
• [56:06] Sam Pinkleton’s direction of Oh, Mary!
• [59:53] Arden vs. Lloyd for musical direction: “a definite swing in the past week”
• [65:36] Play acting categories: Sam’s chaotic Finna Strazza theory
• [73:29] Tara Young, featured actress, and split votes
• [93:09] Warmth towards Gypsy and its impact on the revival race
• [101:27] Nuanced performance, likability, and the “glue” factor in the leading actor/musical category
• [106:38] Oh, Mary! as an unapologetically queer, political, and commercial best play
• [115:46] Lead Actress/Musical: Matt’s bold Jasmine Amy Rogers prediction
• [124:42] Matt’s Russell Crowe-in-Beautiful Mind “pattern” theory for ingenue Tony winners

Tone & Language

• Direct, opinionated, affectionate, foul-mouthed (but warm): Listeners are dropped straight into the heart of Tony gossip and analysis as only messy theatre queens can do. There’s plenty of friendly bickering, self-deprecation, and inside jokes for Broadway nerds (“It’s not a war, it’s a playful fraud” — 12:27).
• Frequent asides, industry anecdotes, and Discord Channel drama keep things lively and personal.
• Passion for theatre, even (especially) when wrong: Both speakers embrace changing their minds mid-discussion (“By the time we finish this, I might change all of my predictions...” — Matt, 24:48).

Summary Takeaways

• Most races are unusually open, with only a few true locks (e.g., Sarah Snook, maybe Happy Ending for Musical).
• Maybe Happy Ending is positioned for a strong night, but surprises are more than possible, especially in Book, Featured Actress (Play), and Lead Actress (Musical).
• Oh, Mary! is celebrated as a once-in-a-generation commercial and artistic queer success: Expect it to win Best Play.
• Personal favorites abound, but both hosts admit the voters may not share their precise taste—making for a wild, fun, and unpredictable Tony ceremony.

For listeners who missed the episode:

You’ll come away with vivid, honest analysis of every major Tony category, several possible narratives for surprise wins, and a sense of how unpredictable and vibrant this Broadway season has been—with insider dirt, quotable quips, and the frenzied affection only true theatre nerds can deliver.