Broadway Breakdown – "Let's Try to Understand Broadway Grosses"
Host: Matt Koplik
Date: September 19, 2024
Episode Theme:
A deep, passionate, and characteristically foul-mouthed solo breakdown of how Broadway grosses work, why certain shows thrive or flounder, and a week-by-week analysis of the most recent Broadway box office data. Matt demystifies common misconceptions, brings industry context, and delivers his signature blend of insider knowledge and theatrical enthusiasm.
Main Theme and Episode Purpose
Matt attempts to educate Broadway fans—especially those who “don’t like to look into the business side of things”—on what box office grosses actually mean. He highlights factors affecting show profitability, critiques simplistic online discourse about show closings and hits, and provides a nerdy, detailed walk-through of real Broadway numbers from the week ending September 15, 2024.
"Knowledge is power. I don't have all the knowledge, but I have some. And I would like to share it." (14:58)
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Why Understanding Broadway Grosses Matters
- Many theater fans react emotionally to show closings or news (“Why can’t they keep it open longer?”), often ignoring the complicated factors that actually drive these decisions.
- Matt argues basic business literacy fosters better conversations and more realistic expectations about which shows last and why.
“When shows open, when shows close, when shows are struggling, people don't want to see or understand that. They just want to get angry... I am not here to shame anyone for not knowing anything. I am here to shame people for not wanting to know anything.” (13:39)
2. What Are Broadway Grosses?
- Weekly “grosses” (revenue) are released by the Broadway League, but these are the raw box office intakes—not what the production keeps.
- About 6-10% is shaved off for union benefits, credit card fees, broker commissions, and group sales, so the show’s take-home is always less than the posted “gross.”
- “Net Adjusted Gross Box Office Receipts” (NAGBOR) is closer to what actually goes into the production’s account.
“When you see the gross, remember, 6 to 10% of what you see in the gross is not what the show takes in.” (92:11)
3. What Affects Running Costs?
- Labor: The biggest ongoing expense. This covers not just actors but musicians, tech staff, maintenance, child wranglers, costume/wig upkeep, etc.
- Theater Rent: Major unless you own your venue (Disney with the New Amsterdam, Lincoln Center shows, etc).
- Royalties: Agreements for creative teams vary hugely. Some take flat fees, others small percentages that balloon over long runs.
- Set Upkeep: High-tech or elaborate sets (e.g., Cats' tire, N. Juliet’s turntable) drive up running costs for maintenance and safety checks.
- Dynamic Pricing: Adjusting ticket prices week to week to maximize revenue.
- Other: Stagehands, regular “put-in” rehearsals, costume replacements, and fluctuating cast/cover needs.
“Labor is perhaps the biggest factor in terms of production costs. After that would be royalties. After that would be marketing…” (67:17)
4. Interpreting Grosses—What’s a “Good” Number?
- Raw weekly gross must be compared to a show's expenses (“the nut”), theater size, ticket pricing, and trend over time.
- High attendance with low average ticket price (due to discounts or rush seats) can still leave a show losing money.
- Seasonal factors: holidays and “Broadway Week” promotions push numbers up; early fall is often “soft.”
- A show’s run trajectory: Early high numbers are normal; the challenge is sustaining after the "new hit" phase.
“Even if you fill every seat in your theater, if your average ticket price is like $45, you are not going to be covering your running costs.” (22:08)
Detailed Show-by-Show Analysis
Note: For clarity, the following highlights selected shows discussed, their weekly grosses, Matt’s insight, and notable trends. All quotes attributed as (Host: Matt Koplik; [timestamp]).
A. High-Performing, "Safe" Shows
Wicked @ Gershwin Theatre – $1.8M
- 21 years in, still filling massive house.
- Dynamic pricing and smart replacement casting.
- Longevity similar to Lion King or Phantom.
“I don't know if this show will ever die. I think this and Lion King are shows similar to Phantom where it's like just gonna keep running—Energizer Bunny of it all.” (89:14)
Hamilton @ Richard Rodgers – $1.6M
- Down from peak, but steady and reliably over-capacity.
- No longer the most expensive ticket in town, but “an institution.”
“Hamilton's been around since 2015... To consistently be doing 1.6, this theater is great.” (43:55)
The Lion King @ Minskoff Theatre – $1.7M
- Disney’s perfect pricing; near-sellout every week.
- “Disney has figured out the pricing model for Lion King a long time ago. They've got nothing to worry about.” (87:41)
MJ the Musical @ Neil Simon Theatre – $1.37M
- Never dips below the million mark (except during Covid reopening).
- Ticket sales remarkably consistent; younger than most long runners.
Aladdin @ New Amsterdam – $1.1M
- Runs in a Disney-owned theater, shielding it from rent pressures.
- Always strong with family/winter/holiday tourist crowds.
Outsiders @ Bernard B. Jacobs – $1.2M
- High average ticket price ($158), 97% capacity.
- “Outsiders is going to be around for a minute, so buckle up folks. That's not going anywhere.” (87:30)
Moulin Rouge @ Al Hirschfeld – $1.3M
- Fluctuates with cast changes but remains consistently profitable.
- “Not Lion King-long-running, but heading toward Hairspray/Mamma Mia territory.” (59:57)
B. Trending Down / At Risk
Back to the Future @ Winter Garden – $768K
- House size: ~1,500. Needs $1M+ weeks to cover estimated running costs.
- Rapid decline post-opening, now underperforming despite brand recognition and huge capitalization.
- “When you are below a million dollars for two months... Things are not looking good... I think we are on our way to seeing Back to the Future closing notice for December or January.” (36:44)
Suffs @ Music Box – $800K
- Never able to cross the million-dollar mark.
- High running cost, high discounting needed to fill seats.
- “Probably not long for this world... I would imagine a January closing.” (84:40)
Water for Elephants @ Imperial – $740K
- Large, expensive, acrobatic show now hovering well below breakeven.
- “I do think that the writing is on the wall with this show. I think we're looking at a December closing, possibly sooner.” (88:36)
The Notebook @ Schoenfeld – $670K
- Already posted notice. Small bounce in sales after closing announced, but likely to fluctuate downward until final weeks.
C. Shows Softening, But Not in Immediate Danger
Book of Mormon @ Eugene O’Neill – $865K
- Once a mega-juggernaut ($1.8M+), now softening but 13 years in, so expected.
- “They don't have to close tomorrow... But they're no longer sitting so comfortably pretty.” (84:01)
Six @ Lena Horne – $764K
- Down from $1M+ weeks in first couple of years; three years in, still profitable, but no longer the “hot new kid.”
- “I don't think that we should be sitting comfortably feeling that six will be around three or four years from now.” (82:00)
Hadestown @ Walter Kerr – $773K
- Slowly narrowing margin but holding steady.
- “As long as they can crack $700k, I think that's when we start sounding the alarm. But for now, nothing to worry about.” (45:57)
Chicago @ Ambassador – $777K
- Profitable due to shrewd casting and cost-cutting, but royalties catching up after long run.
D. Plays Breaking Through
McNeal (Robert Downey Jr.) @ Vivian Beaumont – $954K (five previews!)
- Huge demand: outselling major musicals with fewer performances and a big star.
- “Go off Robert Downey Jr... That is incredible.” (55:24)
Oh, Mary! @ Lyceum – $1M
- Niche, bonkers play at an “undesirable” theater, yet consistently sells out with future performances already full.
- “This is also a show that has had future sold out performances... which is incredible.” (61:21)
E. Limited Runs, Small Venues, and Others
Job @ Hayes – $328K
- Smallest Broadway house; ~80% capacity; not a hit but not a disaster.
- On TDF frequently to fill seats. Likely to just break even before closing.
- “I don't see this show bleeding money, but it's not exactly profitable.” (50:36)
The Roommate @ Booth – $341K (6 shows)
- Star-driven play (Mia Farrow, Patti LuPone) with some canceled/capped performances affecting dollars.
- Close to covering costs; mixed-to-soft reviews may limit life.
Yellowface @ Todd Haimes – $148K (3 shows)
- Subscriber house; early data but solid capacity; expects reviews/word of mouth to increase demand.
F. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On the importance of knowledge in fandom:
“I have the same mentality about this as I do about racism or bigotry... these kind of hateful thinkings happen because people don't want to think more nuanced than what they have... I find that idiotic.” (14:14)
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On common online fan reactions:
"People don't want to see or understand that. They just want to get angry. So when a show closes, they go 'Oh, we can't have nice things. Oh, this is terrible. Oh, why can't they keep it open longer? Believe in art!'..." (13:55)
-
On confusing show costs with set size:
“You don't pay for each piece of scenery that you use... where scenery can be expensive for running cost is upkeep.” (25:36)
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Comparing discounts to filling rooms:
"Even if you fill every seat in your theater, if your average ticket price is like $45, you are not going to be covering your running costs." (22:08)
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Summary of factors behind gross "strength":
“It also depends on where you're at within the run of your show, what theater you're in, what time of year is it...” (20:49)
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On Oh, Mary’s niche success:
“It doing this well really warms my heart and it very much deserves that kind of success... I think that they are very close to announcing another extension.” (61:38)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Housekeeping (ad breaks, upcoming episodes): 00:35 – 11:35
- Purpose of Grosses Episode & Fan Misconceptions: 11:53 – 14:58
- What Box Office Grosses REALLY Mean: 17:47 – 20:49
- Detailed Show-by-Show Numbers and Analysis: 22:08 – 96:25
- Notable case studies:
- N. Juliet (22:08–33:00)
- Back to the Future (33:00–40:00)
- Cabaret, Chicago, Hadestown, Hamilton (40:30–47:00)
- McNeal & Star-Driven Plays (53:35–57:00)
- Oh, Mary! (60:00–62:51)
- Wicked, Lion King, Outsiders (70:00–90:00)
- Notable case studies:
- Summary of Trends & Lessons—a ‘How To’ for Gross Nerds: 92:11 – 94:11
Final Takeaways
- Always compare gross to theater size, ticket price, and the show's phase in its run.
- Dynamic pricing, labor, royalties, and theater ownership are key to profitability.
- Never judge a show's health by a single week (or by just "raw" gross).
- "Softening" is normal for older hits; red flags are extended low grosses for new, expensive shows.
- Demand for a show can spike near closing; prestigious plays can now match or surpass big musicals if they're buzzy or star-driven.
Closing
"I hope you learned a little something from this... I know that I rambled... but I hope as you looked through these grosses with me, we were able to learn a little something about trends, trajectories, what certain numbers mean, how you look at the average ticket price, how you look at at capacity, you look at the number of seats a theater holds and that definitely has an influence on the number of dollars it brings in." (94:17)
- Next week: Matt shares updates about his play and interviews a six-time Tony-nominated writer.
- After that: Grab Bag series launches, featuring community-suggested shows and media.
For more show-by-show breakdowns and details, listen to specific segments (see above).
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End with: Natasha Richardson’s “Don’t Tell Mama” from Cabaret, by Matt's request, because he wants everyone to love that performance, too. (96:42)