Broadway Breakdown: 2025 Tony Award Predictions (April 3, 2025)

Overview

In this dynamic and unfiltered episode of Broadway Breakdown, host Matt Koplik is joined by Jeff Malone and Richie Grasso of the podcast HALF HOUR. The trio dives deep into the early and speculative 2025 Tony Award predictions across major categories. With only some shows already open, and others yet-to-premiere, the discussion oscillates between informed bets, gut feelings, and industry gossip. They break down the state of each race, hot contenders, possible spoilers, and the perennial quirks of Tony nominators. Throughout, Matt’s signature blend of sass, theatrical expertise, and four-letter words keeps the tone lively and irreverent.

Key Discussion Points

1. Best Musical Predictions

[02:00–10:00]

• Consensus Frontrunners:
  Maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, Operation Mincemeat, and Buena Vista Social Club are universally seen as major contenders.
• Wildcards:
  Matt floats Old Friends (despite eligibility questions), while others mention Swept Away, Death Becomes Her, and Boop as possible picks. Just In Time gets strong buzz thanks to early raves from insiders.
• Industry Factors:
  Shows arriving later in the season (“fresh off the conveyor belt”) have a recency advantage, sometimes eclipsing worthy early openings.
• Quote:
  “I think Operation Mincemeat is probably a lock at this point... Not as well as some people were hoping, but about as well as I expected.” —Matt [04:28]

2. Best Revival of a Musical

[12:50–16:52]

• Likely Nominees:
  Sunset Boulevard and Gypsy are the expected frontrunners, with Pirates of Penzance and Floyd Collins noted for possible upsets if their full runs impress. Once Upon a Mattress may sneak in if other revivals stumble.
• Eligibility Issues:
  Confusion reigns around what constitutes a "revival" (e.g., Pirates of Penzance’s heavily doctored book).
• Broader Reflection:
  The pool of “golden age” revivals is shrinking; 80s and 90s works are now dominating the revival slot.
• Quote:
  “Shows from the 80s and 90s become the revival market. So I get it.” —Matt [17:23]

3. Best Play & Best Revival of a Play

[18:13–23:38]

• Best Play:
  Oh Mary!, Purpose, English, Hills of California, and John Proctor is the Villain dominate predictions. Cult of Love and Stranger Things are noted as possible spoilers.
• Comedy vs. Drama:
  The rarity of comedies winning Best Play is discussed, with a chance for Oh Mary! to break that trend.
• Best Play Revival:
  Glengarry Glen Ross, Othello, Eureka Day, Yellow Face, Our Town, and possibly Romeo & Juliet crowd a competitive field.
• Critical Influence:
  Jesse Green's NYT critics picks (seen as outliers) are called out, with Matt venting about their inconsistency and impact on consensus.
• Quote:
  “The Tonys love ingenues... who won last year?” —Jeff [40:33]

4. Best Lead Actress in a Musical

[36:45–48:09]

• The Two-Woman Race:
  Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Boulevard) and Audra McDonald (Gypsy) are neck and neck for the win.
• Solid Contenders:
  Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop) is a near lock, with attention to Megan Hilty and Jen Simard (Death Becomes Her), and Helen J. Shen (Maybe Happy Ending) as a dark horse.
• Strategy & Eligibility Woes:
  Who lands in lead vs. featured category is hotly debated, affecting perceived lock status.
• Quote:
  “It’s so hard for me to have people watch Sunset and vote for it and then not vote for Nicole.” —Matt [43:35]

5. Best Lead Actor in a Musical

[48:51–54:31]

• Tough Top Four:
  Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending), Tom Francis (Sunset Boulevard), Jonathan Groff (Just In Time), and Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins) appear at the top.
• Wildcard Slot:
  Andrew Durand (Dead Outlaw) and possibly Ramin Karimloo (Pirates of Penzance), Michael Urie (Once Upon a Mattress), and Gray Henson (Elf) are discussed as potential wildcards.
• Audience Favorites:
  Gray Henson’s unexpected success as “Buddy” in Elf creates wishful momentum for a nomination.

6. Featured Acting Categories

[54:44–62:58]

• Featured Actress in a Play:
  Potentially wide open, with love for Latonya Richardson Jackson (Purpose), Jessica Hecht (Eureka Day), and a slew of actresses from Hills of California and English.
• Featured Actress in a Musical:
  Seen as “a desert” this year. Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club), Jinkx Monsoon (Pirates), Joy Woods (Gypsy), Natasha Hodgson (Operation Mincemeat), Lea Salonga/Bernadette Peters (Old Friends) are in the mix.
• Featured Actor in a Musical:
  Jack Malone (Operation Mincemeat), David Thaxton (Sunset Boulevard), Danny Burstein (Gypsy), Tom Sesma (Dead Outlaw), and Taylor Trensch (Floyd Collins).
• Featured Actor in a Play:
  Conrad Ricamora (Oh Mary!), Francis Jue (Yellow Face), Bob Odenkirk and others from Glengarry Glen Ross.
• Category Placement Frustrations:
  Once again, misplacement of actors in lead vs. featured categories creates confusion.

7. Lead Acting in a Play

[75:54–81:02]

• Lock Predictions:
  Cole Escola (Oh Mary!) is deemed the runaway for Best Lead Actor in a Play. Jake Gyllenhaal (Othello) is another strong nominee. Possible inclusion for George Clooney, Robert Downey Jr., Denzel Washington, Daniel Dae Kim.
• Best Lead Actress in a Play:
  Sarah Snook (Dorian Gray) is considered unbeatable. Laura Donnelly and Sydney Lemmon are likely nominees.
• Category Placement:
  The Tony committee’s new approach lets non-binary actors choose the category.

8. Book, Score, Direction, and Choreography

[82:18–103:01]

• Best Book and Score:
  Maybe Happy Ending, Operation Mincemeat, Dead Outlaw seen as locks. Boop, Death Becomes Her, Just In Time, Real Women Have Curves possible for book/score nods.
• Direction of a Musical:
  Jamie Lloyd (Sunset Boulevard), Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending), David Cromer (Dead Outlaw), Robert Hastie (Operation Mincemeat) are favorites. Alex Timbers (Just In Time) and Matthew Bourne (Old Friends) are dark horses.
• Direction of a Play:
  Sam Pinkleton (Oh Mary!), Felicia Rashad (Purpose), Patrick Marber (Glengarry Glen Ross), Not Adams (English), Sam Mendes (Hills of California).
• Choreography:
  Justin Peck & Patricia Delgado (Buena Vista Social Club) are predicted as frontrunners, with potential competition from Boop, Smash, Pirates, Wonderful World, etc.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“People want to have a popular thing in there, for sure. And I think with Broadway... when something’s popular, you feel the hype around it.” —Matt [08:39]

“Sometimes you can’t... really compete with the energy a show has in the present.” —Matt [09:43]

“If Paradise Square can get nominated, so can fucking Death Becomes Her.” —Matt [83:46]

“Nicole could come out over Audra on top for it. Yeah, just irking by at the top.” —Jeff [38:25]

“Whoever’s revival wins is who wins actress... It’s so hard for me to have people watch Sunset and vote for it and then not vote for Nicole.” —Matt [43:35]

“Oh Mary!’s weirdness and queerness is really its importance...” —Matt [28:43]

Timestamps by Segment

• Opening, Introductions — [00:00–01:50]
• Best Musical — [01:50–10:20]
• Best Musical Revival — [12:50–17:30]
• Best Play, Best Play Revival — [18:13–23:38]
• Best Lead Actress in a Musical — [36:45–48:09]
• Best Lead Actor in a Musical — [48:51–54:31]
• Featured Acting Categories — [54:44–62:58]
• Lead Acting in a Play — [75:54–81:02]
• Book, Score, Direction, Choreography — [82:18–103:01]
• Final Thoughts and Closings — [103:13–115:46]

Tone and Listener Experience

Unapologetically opinionated, high-energy, and replete with in-jokes for theatre nerds, the episode models what happens when deep expertise meets barbed wit. Regular callouts of Tony eligibility quirks, producer shenanigans, and critical controversies capture the drama behind the drama. Even as they disagree, Matt, Jeff, and Richie bond over obsessive, day-by-day “April Madness,” and the rush—tinged with FOMO and hope—that only theatre fans and insiders know.

Additional Memorable Exchanges

• On Tony category confusion:
  “Once again, misplacement of actors in lead vs. featured categories creates confusion.”
• On Jesse Green’s unpredictable reviews:
  “If you did not give Redwood a critics pick, people would actually read your Dorian Gray review with a little more insight.” —Matt [21:11]
• On industry recency bias:
  “With Broadway, we’re all here to experience it. When something’s popular, you feel the hype.” —Matt [08:39]
• Reminders that “industry shame” (chasing popularity over quality) isn’t exclusive to Broadway—everyone feels it.

For New Listeners

If you haven’t heard the episode, this summary captures both the depth and spirit of the discussion. It’s a no-holds-barred look at how Tony predictions are shaped by taste, buzz, and industry quirks, providing a roadmap for following the 2025 races as shows open and the field shifts. There’s just as much drama here as on stage.