Broadway Breakdown | "The Art of Predicting the Tonys" (w/ Sam Eckmann)

Host: Matt Koplik
Guest: Sam Eckmann (Gold Derby)
Release date: May 16, 2024

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into "the art of predicting the Tonys," with host Matt Koplik and guest Sam Eckmann of Gold Derby. With Tony voting in full swing and a uniquely unpredictable Broadway season, Matt and Sam dissect the strategies, trends, misconceptions, and industry dynamics behind Tony nominations and wins. Expect insider tips, lots of stats, plenty of hot takes, and boisterous, affectionate banter on who could walk away with theatre's top prizes — and why.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Sam's Track Record and Gold Derby's Role

• What is Gold Derby?
  Sam explains Gold Derby as an entertainment site devoted to awards-prediction, letting users pit their guesses against those of editors, critics, and fans for bragging rights and prizes. Sam’s “main alcove here is the Tony Awards and Broadway.”
  [02:06] Sam: "We're an entertainment site that covers all awards races in the entertainment industry... Broadway is a localized industry. You have to be here to see the things."
• Sam’s Credentials:
  Last year, Sam tied for first on Gold Derby's Tony predictions, but calls 2024 the toughest season he's faced.
  [03:42] "Last time I tied for first place, so that's pretty good — this season, however, she's tricky."

Surprise Nominees & Changing Trends

• Unexpected Nominees:
  Both were shocked by the inclusion of Joshua Boone and Sky Lakota Lynch (The Outsiders) and pleased for "underdogs" like Betsy Aidem (Prayer for the French Republic) and Dorian Harewood (The Notebook).
  Matt laments snubs for Paul Alexander Nolan (Water for Elephants):
  [05:43] Matt: "I've been saying, what does he have to do, Sam? ... Award the fucker. You know, why not?"
• Nomination Surprises:
  Both note this season's unpredictability and how seeing a show live can upend preconceived notions:
  [09:20] Matt: "Once you're in that theater and watching, your whole attitude about the race changes."

Strategy: Separating Personal Taste from Prediction

• Taking Your Own Taste Out:
  Sam discusses needing to separate personal favorites from what voters will do:
  [10:47] Sam: "Art is subjective... you have to think about what this specific group of people are going to do." He reveals how Tonys nominators rotate every three years, making trends hard to bank on, even if some patterns persist.

How the Tony Voting Pool Works

• Who are the nominators?
  Sam details the small (44 people this year) and diverse group who must see everything, leading to idiosyncratic results:
  [14:33] Sam: "It's a tiny pool of people... the smaller the group, the more chance there is for... individual tastes to come into the fold."
• Impact of Diversity:
  Recent years have seen a push for diversity in age and ethnicity, leading to less predictability and greater representation.

Nomination vs. Winning: Understanding the Math

• Passion Voting & Small Pools:
  Individual passions matter more when voting pools are small, leading to quirks in nominations.
  [20:13] Sam: "Sometimes... weird things shake out in weird, weird ways. Because math."
• Nominations Don’t Equal Wins:
  Matt underscores that shows with lots of Tony nominations (Mean Girls, Scottsboro Boys) often win nothing, due to the much larger voting body for final awards.

Dispelling Tony Myths

• The "Road Vote":
  Both Matt and Sam debunk the myth that touring presenters ("the road") control the Best Musical race, explaining their influence is now diminished and more nuanced:
  [21:05] Sam: "I never want to hear about the road vote again."
• Precursor Awards:
  Unlike film, other theater awards (Drama Desk, Drama League) don’t predict Tony results due to lack of voter overlap:
  [38:53] Sam: "Precursor is not really a word with any of the other theater awards given out."

Voters’ Mindset & Key Factors

• Message, Money, and The "Canon":
  Voters often consider how a musical fits into the "canon," what message a win sends, or business/marketing impact.

  • [32:03] Matt: "Sometimes there are mentalities when voting: 'What message are we sending the community?' ... That definitely felt like a pointed statement from voters that year."

• Trend Against Jukebox Musicals:
  Sam and Matt highlight how rarely jukebox musicals win (Moulin Rouge, Jersey Boys are exceptions), and the enduring importance of Best Book and Best Score categories.

  • [35:59] Sam: "Best score has been all important recently because until Moulin Rouge... nothing of that sort had won since Jersey Boys."

2024 Tony Race Breakdown

Best Musical

• Uncertainty & Suffs as a "Default" Front-Runner:
  No clear frontrunner—Suffs is predicted by many, but with caveats. Sam worries its campaign is focusing too much on the "importance" narrative and not enough on emotional impact.

  • [44:25] Sam: "I've had Suffs out there... It's one of the most confusing ones. It's the hardest year to predict this category ever, I would say."

• The Narrator Problem:
  Both vent frustration at the overuse of narrators in new musicals.

  • [46:05] Matt: "Can we put a fucking end to it? I am so over it... get the narrators out of here."

• Underdogs & Fanbase Challenges:
  The Outsiders draws a passionate, young, female fanbase; Matt questions how seriously voters take shows with that profile.

  • [51:09] Sam: "[The Outsiders]... these boys are going to be as popular for this generation as those kids were for us."

Best Play

• Stereophonic’s Dominance:
  Five acting nods and surging critical/box office success make it a presumed winner.
  • [55:00] Sam: "That's gonna win best play for sure. I can't think of... I think Stereophonic just has really taken off in a crazy way that rarely happens for plays."
• Appropriate vs. Pearly Victorious in Revival:
  The expected showdown, with Appropriate seen as having the edge due to momentum and recency bias.

Acting Categories

• Tightly Contested Races:
  Particularly in Lead Actress/Actor in a Musical (Kelly O’Hara, Malaya, Marianne Plunkett), and supporting categories—many scenarios are possible, with voters’ emotional connection, narrative, and show status (open or closed) all playing big roles.
  • [63:18] Matt: "Jonathan Groff... might be the only thing that I will predict with confidence."
• The “New Star” vs. “Rewarding a Legend” Model:
  Featured Actress/Actor races often crown either a veteran or a breakout talent and can depend closely on “Tony moments.”

Design Categories & The “Most, Not Best” Dilemma

• Scenic Design – Here Lies Love vs. the Field:
  Sam is fiercely rooting for Here Lies Love (immersive disco set) against splashier but maybe less innovative competition.
  • [78:06] Sam: "God damn it, I want Here Lies Love to win best scenic design... did we not step into the disco?"
• Modern Dress Snobbery:
  Both note the long-standing reluctance of Tony nominators to reward contemporary costume design, which makes wins for shows like Jaja’s African Hair Braiding harder.

Score & Orchestrations

• Stereophonic: The Play That Might Win Score?
  Both rave about Stereophonic’s prowess in original songcraft, but acknowledge the oddity of a play being a real contender in this musical category.
  • [103:15] Matt: "Every song is great and it’s so intelligently crafted... you can tell [different band members wrote them]."

Memorable Quotes

• [03:23] Matt (on being a podcast host):
  "A lot of people I admire get to talk to me."
• [05:43] Matt (on Tony snubs):
  "I've been saying, what does he have to do, Sam? ... Award the fucker. You know, why not?"
• [21:12] Matt (on Tony myths):
  "I think that's, like, the ultimate [Tony] myth."
• [32:03] Matt (on voters sending messages):
  "...Sometimes there are mentalities when voting: 'What message are we sending the community?'"
• [44:25] Sam (on Best Musical 2024):
  "It's one of the most confusing ones. It's the hardest year to predict this category ever, I would say."
• [46:05] Matt (on narrators):
  "Can we put a f***ing end to it? I am so over it... get the narrators out of here."
• [60:33] Sam (on Stereophonic and award ‘splitting’):
  "Vote-splitting only occurs when there's not a consensus."
• [75:30] Sam (on Tony moments):
  "You have to have a moment... something that stays with you. What are they gonna put on screen when they read your name?"

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tony Nominators & Gold Derby Intro: 01:33–05:05
• Surprises & Omissions: 05:32–09:55
• Subjectivity vs. Prediction: 10:47–13:28
• Nominator Pool & Diversity: 14:33–20:13
• The “Road Vote” Myth: 21:05–25:46
• Campaigning & Tony Impact: 24:04–29:47
• Jukebox Musicals, Book & Score Trends: 32:03–36:00
• Art vs Commerce in Voting: 39:00–41:19
• Precursors & Other Awards: 38:53–43:03
• Best Musical Deep Dive: 44:25–54:09
• Best Play & Revivals: 54:54–57:50
• Lead Actor/Actress Races: 63:18–72:25
• Design/Technical Awards: 78:05–83:04
• Best Score (Stereophonic): 101:55–109:24
• Final Advice for Predictions: 122:21–124:55

Sam & Matt’s Prediction Advice

• Remove Emotional Bias:
  [122:21] Sam: "You should kind of remove your own likes... it's not what the masses of this Tony voting pool are going for... think objectively rather than emotionally."
• Know the Voting Pool:
  Remember Tony voters are not the loud online fanbase; know the difference.
• Watch for "Tony Moments":
  Standout moments and performances often sway outcomes—voters remember showstoppers!

Closing Notes & Tone

• Language & Tone:
  Irreverent, geeky, profane, affectionate; Matt and Sam alternate between deep industry analysis and joyful theatrical bitchery, relishing both the absurdity and sacredness of Broadway's biggest night.
• Final Thoughts:
  The season's unpredictability makes predictions hazardous—but rewarding. Tune in, trust your gut (or Sam’s), and enjoy the mayhem of Tony season.