Broadway Breakdown Podcast – "The Tony Awards: Myths and Trends"

Host: Matt Koplik
Date: May 29, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode is a passionate, data-driven, and often hilariously profane deep dive into common myths and trends surrounding the Tony Awards. Host Matt Koplik, armed with extensive research and boisterous opinions, debunks stereotypes, reveals industry secrets, and walks listeners through Tony history to shed light on what actually sways nominations and wins. With the 2025 Tonys approaching, Matt aims to equip listeners (and Discord fans) with real insight to inform their predictions, using cases and statistics from the past 35 years to present.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Housekeeping & Listener Shoutouts [00:02–08:30]

• Opens by reading three glowing listener reviews, delighting in both praise and the occasional "drag."
  • “They drag me just a little bit. But sometimes we need to be dragged...you guys keep me humble, you keep me honest, as does everyone else in my life, to be perfectly frank. But that's a story for another day.” (Matt, 07:25)

Purpose of This Episode [08:30–12:28]

• Introduces the concept: What are the Tony “myths and trends” discussed every season, and do they hold up?
• Cites Broadway Breakdown’s Discord for crowd-sourced myths to discuss.
• Emphasizes that the Tony voting and nominating bodies are NOT static; membership, diversity, and tastes evolve year to year so there's never a monolithic "Tony voter."
  • “There is no 1 Mr. Or Mrs. Tony Award that does all the voting. And even if there were, people change over time, we assume.”
• Outlines the role of Tony nominators (approx. 50, rotating), and voters (~800+; lifetime unless leaving voluntarily).

Myth 1: "The Tonys Nominate Celebrities for Ratings" [12:28–22:02]

• Dissects the myth that Tony nominators favor celebrities to boost TV viewership.
• Highlights 2025’s high-profile Broadway season: Kit Connor, Robert Downey Jr., George Clooney, Denzel Washington, Jake Gyllenhaal, Sarah Snook, Kieran Culkin.
• Reality: Many un-nominated this season (e.g., Denzel, Jake Gyllenhaal, Kit Connor) despite their fame.
• “Star fuckery” is rarely enough without prestige or strong performances—cite George Clooney’s “Good Night and Good Luck” as an exception only because of broader acclaim, not star status.
• Recalls many snubbed famous faces, e.g., Julia Roberts, Jennifer Hudson, Steve Carell, Oscar Isaac, Uma Thurman, Bruce Willis, Jim Parsons.
  • “The Tonys don't always feel the pressure to nominate celebs, despite what we may think. So I think that's a myth that we can say is debunked.” (Matt, 21:00)
• Touches on Broadway actors’ resentment when “Hollywood people” take roles but don’t put in the long-run work.

Myth 2: "Shows From Previous Seasons Can Win" [22:03–24:41]

• Clarifies Tony eligibility runs roughly May-to-May, not calendar year.
• Only shows from the current season can be nominated/win (“no do-overs for past seasons”).

Myth 3: "Tonys Always Favor Certain Performers" [24:42–34:20]

• Dispels notion that the Tonys have favorites who always get nominated.
• Proves frequent nominees still get snubbed:
  • Paula Alexander Nolan: “at this point it's getting fucking absurd that that man does not have a single nomination to his name.”
  • Audra McDonald has been passed over despite reputation as perennial shoo-in (Shuffle Along, Henry IV).
  • Laurie Metcalfe, Nathan Lane, Danny Burstein, Laura Linney, Bart Sher—all proven “favorites” who’ve missed nominations.
• List of character roles (Rose in Gypsy, Mrs. Lovett in Sweeney Todd, Phyllis in Follies) that do always get nominated, even across revivals—more about the role than the actor.

Myth 4: "The Road Vote Determines Best Musical" [34:21–52:08]

• Explains the “road vote” myth—that touring presenters make/break Best Musical because they vote for tour-friendly shows.

• Reality: Road presenters only ~10% of voters (not enough to swing).

• Traces myth’s origins back to La Cage aux Folles vs. Sunday in the Park with George (1984), then Kinky Boots vs Matilda, and Avenue Q vs Wicked (2004).

  • “That’s where talking about what may tour well can help you with your predictions.”

• Outlines distinctions:

  • Tony voters often reward “jewel box” shows that need the win for road appeal (Fun Home, Band’s Visit, Kimberly Akimbo).
  • Commercial blockbusters occasionally win because they’re undeniable, not just road vote: Jersey Boys, Spamalot, Thoroughly Modern Millie.

• Avenue Q’s director nomination (Jason Moore) over Wicked’s (Joe Mantello) flagged as key to its “upset.”

  • Notable quote:
    “If a show is doing well in New York, there's an energy around it that gets people excited, especially voters. And it feels good to be voting for the winning ticket—not just, ‘oh, this is the popular thing,’ but like, ‘this is the popular thing that people are excited about.’” (Matt, 50:30)

• The “road vote” is a factor but rarely decisive.

Myth 5 & 6: "You Can’t Win Two Years in a Row" / "Real Person = Win" [52:09–1:10:25]

The Consecutive Win Myth

• It’s rare for actors to win Tony Awards two years running, especially in the same category (Gwen Verdon, Judith Light, Steven Spinella, Laurie Metcalf are exceptions, often in different categories).
• Dives into recent examples of back-to-back nominees who lost (e.g., Patrick Wilson, Michael Cerveris, Brian d’Arcy James).
• “Not that common for actors to be nominated multiple years in a row... usually there’s a year off.”

The “Playing a Real Person” Myth

• Playing a real person is much more predictive of a Tony win for actors in plays—not musicals.
• Last 40 years: 11 play actors, only 5 musical actors (and even fewer actresses).
• “Career wins” (or “legacy”/“due”/“lifetime achievement” wins) are rare; more likely for directors (e.g., Mike Nichols for Spamalot & Death of a Salesman) than performers.

Key Trend: Correlations with Best Director/Book Nominations [1:10:26–1:19:35]

• For Best Musical, a nomination for Best Director (and Best Book, if eligible) is almost a prerequisite. Only Titanic (1997) won without a Director nod.
  • “Of all the best musical winners of all time, only one … was not nominated for Best Director.”
• For revivals, sometimes anomaly (e.g., La Cage aux Folles), but consistent trend for original Best Musical winners and director (and book) nominations.
• “If you want to win best musical, it’s a really, really, really helpful one to have, which is Best Director.”
• Best Play is less correlated: more likely to win without a Director nod.

Myth 7: "Closed Shows Can’t Win" [1:19:36–1:24:30]

• "If your show is closed, you have a really tough time winning."
• Most pronounced for musicals; less so for plays (Carrie Young’s recent win for Pearly Victorious as a major exception).
• “It’s rare for a best play winner to have closed, but not impossible.”

Myth 8: "Precursors (Other Awards) Predict the Tonys" [1:24:31–1:36:45]

• Outlines why, unlike the Oscars, Off-Broadway/broadway awards (Drama Desk, Drama League, Outer Critics Circle, NY Drama Critics Circle) have limited overlap with the Tonys—different voters, different priorities.
• Stats-heavy rundown:
  • Drama League has been wrong on Best Musical 10 times since 1996, Best Play 4 times, Best Revival of Musical 5 times since 2004, Director categories 2 out of 3 times since adding them.
  • Drama Desks have been out of sync with Tony Best Musical 12 times since 1994.
  • NY Drama Critics Circle has disagreed with Tonys on Best Musical 19 times since 1990.
  • “They can sometimes help give momentum, they can help shift narratives and maybe get people excited… but they’re not predictive.”

Myth 9: "Split Voting Dooms Co-Stars" [1:36:46–1:53:35]

• Perennial myth: When two (or more) actors from the same show are nominated in the same category, votes “split,” handing the win to someone else.
• Matt decimates this idea with exhaustive lists:
  • Idina vs. Kristin (Wicked), Faith Prince vs. Josie de Guzman, Chita Rivera vs. Liza Minnelli, Jay Harrison Ghee vs. Christian Borle, Billy Porter vs. Stark Sands, Nathan Lane vs. Matthew Broderick, George Hearn vs. Jean Barry, Kevin Kline vs. George Rose, etc.—someone from the double-nominated show often wins, “split” or not.
  • "Split voting isn't real. Have there been years where multiple nominees from one property are in a category and don't win? Yes. Does that necessarily mean that those people split the vote? No." (Matt, 1:38:28)
• The rare case where “split voting” may have helped a win (Ruthie Ann Miles, King and I, vs. three Fun Home nominees)—but even then, Matt challenges whether this was the real cause.

Myth 10: "The Ingenue Bump" [1:53:36–2:01:51]

• Theory: Leading Actress in a Musical often goes to a young newcomer.
• Stats: Last 35 years, 12 leading actresses <35 years old (6 under 30); 15 featured actress in a musical winners <35, five under 30.
  • “Not a surefire bet every time, but it is a factor. Narratives and energy matter.”

Myth 11: "Being British Helps (or Hurts) Your Chances" [2:01:52–2:06:31]

• British “air of importance” is an asset for Best Play and musical/play revival, NOT for Best Musical (few UK transfers succeed). E.g., God of Carnage, The History Boys, Lehman Trilogy.
• For musicals: Only one British import (Billy Elliot) and two jukeboxes (Jersey Boys, Moulin Rouge) have won in past three decades.

Myth 12: "The Pulitzer = Best Play Tony" [2:06:32–2:12:55]

• From 1947 onward: 18 Pulitzer-winning plays have won the Tony, but only 7 in the last 35 years (and just 5 since 2000).
• “You don’t have to be a Pulitzer winner to win best play. If anything, the Pulitzer is more an indicator of a nomination than a win.”

Key Takeaways

• No one myth, trend, or rule is absolute. Every “truism” has exceptions. Recent Tony history is filled with surprises and broken patterns.
• Voter composition and tastes change every year. Caution against over-generalizing from the past or from Oscar logic (e.g., playing a real person, "career" wins, split voting).
• Genuine excitement, buzz, and narrative matter—i.e., awarding what feels “right” within the theater community by season’s end drives many upsets.
• Statistics and research help, but so does context and nuance. Matt’s passionate, irreverent tone repeatedly hammers home that Broadway is ultimately unpredictable, and prediction is as much art as science.
  • "I don't know how long this episode's gonna be. Could be 40 minutes. Could be 5,000 hours. Let's just jump in, shall we?" (Matt, 12:28)

Memorable Quotes

• “The Tony Awards are for theater nerds. Cater it to theater nerds. They will be locked in forever. You'll never have 20 million viewers, but you can always count on a consistent 5 to 6 million. If you do your job correctly and you cater to them.” [14:45]
• “People love a show making its money back. But theater folks definitely don't like the idea of Hollywood people coming to Broadway and sort of fetishizing the prestige of being on Broadway for a very short period of time and never doing quite the heavy load…” [18:25]
• “There's no such thing as like a group just having a bias against for a specific performer. Although I am convinced that Paula Alexander Nolan has spat in the face of every single person who's ever been a Tony nominator.” [25:30]
• “Of all the best musical winners of all time, there has only been one best musical winner at the Tony Awards that was not nominated for Best Director. That was Titanic in 1997.” [1:10:26]
• “Splitting the vote isn’t real. Not completely.” [1:38:30]
• "You may know something that somebody else doesn't. And it's always fun to offer someone information that you have. Right? So you always want to treat someone who doesn't know something with respect because your number is going to come where you don't know something and you're going to want them to treat you with respect." [2:16:00]

Community & Final Notes

• Matt encourages listeners to engage in Discord discussions to share their own stats and predictions.
• Research sources: Wikipedia, IBDB, Pulitzer and Drama League archives; Matt’s own “Tony Awards coffee table book.”
• Affirms podcast community is “all in good faith” and places for learning and respectful debate.

Listen for These Timestamps

• [12:28] – The “Tony celebrity bump” myth begins
• [34:21] – Deconstructing the "road vote"
• [52:09] – Consecutive win myth and “playing a real person”
• [1:10:26] – Best Director/Book trends as reliable indicators
• [1:36:46] – Myth of split voting
• [1:53:36] – Ingenue bump statistics
• [2:06:32] – The Pulitzer’s real influence
• [2:16:00] – Community encouragement and parting notes

Closing

Matt ends with gratitude for the audience and a plug for the Broadway Breakdown Discord and further engagement. He signs off with a cheeky diva deep cut: Alex Kelly's Cunegonde from the Royal National Theatre’s Candide.

For Your Tony ballot, trust history—but always expect the unexpected.