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Think of the prestige. Think of the respect. No, no, no. Think of the Tony. Hello all you theater lovers both out and proud and on the DL. And welcome back to Broadway Breakdown, a podcast discussing the history und legacy of American theater's most exclusive address, Broadway. We are continuing with our Tony series as we get closer and closer to the gay Super Bowl. The season is starting to wrap up as we head into April and all of the shows start happening. I know that my schedule is getting pretty packed with it. And nominations come out on April 30th. Yeah, Tuesday, April 30th, I'm pretty sure. And then it's May with nominations season and then the actual awards themselves at the Koch Theater. So that is what we're gonna continue doing. I am your host, Matt Koplik, the least famous and most opinionated of all the Broadway packaging podcast hosts. Sorry, it's 9:30 and I've only had one cup of coffee. We've got a lot of stuff to get to today. I recently saw Tommy, the who's Tommy? As you recall from our last episode, I was supposed to see it and they canceled like assholes because some asshole actor had to get asshole sick and had. They had to put an asshole put in for an asshole understudy. And of course I'm joking that it did happen, but no one's an asshole. Things happen. They, you know, were swamped with previews and with doing press footage and as we come out of winter and headed to spring, allergies act up. So everyone's exhausted, everyone's sinuses are going insane and things do happen. And so they had to do an emergency put in for I think Captain Walker and my performance got canceled. But I did get to see it pretty soon after that. And I also just saw the Outsiders last night. Next week for the next episode, I will have seen Lempicka and the Heart of Rock and Roll. I also, there's another show that I may be seeing, but I don't want to jinx it. So I'll only tell you on the next episode once it actually does happen. But yeah, so what I'm gonna do today is I'm going to discuss my thoughts on Tommy and the Outsiders now while they're both still fresh in my brain. And then after the break, we are going to get into some of the. The predictions that you guys submitted to me via Instagram and I did it via the anonymous Ask me anything link that I usually do on my Instagram like every two to three months. So I have not read any of These. Yet some of them may be repeats. Some of them may be inappropriate. Some of them may have misunderstood the assignment and done an ask me anything question instead of just giving me a Tony prediction. Because sometimes y' all do that. So let's get into the first part, which is Tommy and the Outsiders. Feel free to skip this section if you don't want any kind of spoilers, if you don't know the plots of Tommy or the Outsiders, if you plan on seeing them, and you don't want to be influenced by my opinion. But, you know, I'm gonna also sort of talk about how seeing these shows have influenced my feelings on the Tonys this season. So I'm gonna start with Tommy first, because that was a little further away, and I want to discuss it with While it's still kind of in my brain. And then I'll talk about the Outsiders because it was so recent, so it's still pretty fresh. I can. I can postpone that for a few minutes. So Tommy, if you don't know, started as a sort of rock opera album by the who in, I think, 69, and then eventually became a film in 1975 directed by Ken Russell and had had a few, you know, impromptu stage versions. There was a ballet, an opera company, and I think Seattle did it with Bette Midler, actually. And then in the early 90s, Des Mackinaff did his own musical version while collaborating with Pete Townsend of the who, that premiered at La Jolla in California and then came to New York in 1993 at the St. James, where it ran for two years. And that production was incredibly successful, was incredibly impactful for a lot of people. Famously had a lot of major names in it who were not major yet but went on to become major. Michael Cerverus made his Broadway debut as the oldest Tommy in the ensemble. Playing smaller roles were Alice Ripley, Michael McElroy, Norm Lewis, and Sherry Renee Scott. Oh, and Christian Hoff of Jersey Boys fame. And we haven't had Tommy on Broadway since then. It is directed yet again by Des Mackinaff, although this time it's an entirely new design team, new choreographer, the original production, wonderful Tony's four deaths for Wayne Solento for choreography. And then I think they also won scenic and lighting design. But then they also infamously tied for best score with Kiss of the Spider Woman. And that was actually one of the Tony wins that made the Tony eligibility committee rethink some of their rulings. And now that we have it again, let's discuss. Tommy tells the story. If you don't know the story. It's a wild one of a young boy whose father supposedly dies in the war. Captain Walker and his mother, only known as Mrs. Walker after, you know, a few years. Captain Walker dies before Tommy's ever born. You know, his parents had this sort of whirlwind romance and get married very quickly. He goes off to war while she's pregnant, he dies, she gives birth to Tommy and you know, a few years later she moves on like you're supposed to, gets a lover. And the captain comes home to discover the lover kills him in front of Tommy. Like four year old Tommy. And his parents are like, okay, you can't tell anyone you ever saw this. You saw nothing, it's fine. You know, you didn't see it, you didn't hear it. And this traumatizes Tommy so much that he can no longer see, speak or hear. And over his childhood, you know, his parents sent him to a bunch of different specialists. No one knows what to do. His father sends him to a heroin addicted prostitute, sort of soothseer as well, I guess. And then also he gets sexually abused by his uncle, he gets physically abused by his cousin and turns out to be a pinball prodigy, a pinball wizard if you will, and becomes incredibly famous playing pinball. And as he gets older, his mother, out of frustration because Tommy also constantly is just looking into the mirror. It's the only place he can see his reflection. And eventually, as he gets older, a new doctor tells his parents this is psychosomatic. He can see, he can speak, he can hear, he just doesn't, you know, clearly there's trauma lodged in his brain somewhere and his parents aren't thinking, huh, maybe it's that murder that, that he witnessed when he was a child. But his mother, out of frustration, smashes the mirror that Tommy is always looking into, which breaks Tommy of all of his psychoses. And he's quote, unquote cured and becomes famous all over again because he's cured and then becomes a cult leader. And this is where things kind of change from the stage show and the album and the movie. In the album and movie, Tommy's followers, because he does become a true like godlike cult leader, his followers turn on him because they sort of start to see through his practices and feel resentful of being exploited. The movie is especially cynical this way and, and really looks at Tommy's cult like status as, you know, a capitalist venture. And his family is using it for their own gain. And his followers rebel and ends up killing most of his family. Tommy ends up surviving, but the rest of the family dies. The album, I don't think that's exactly what happens, but it does end with him turning on him. The musical ends in a similar fashion, but through, like. I don't know how to describe it. My bottom line is, like, the ending of Tommy has never really made sense to me, especially on stage. And I will say this revival didn't help in any matters with making it make sense to me. You know, it's. He becomes a cult figure. He becomes a. Like a rock God. He invites all of his followers to his house in a song called Come to My House. And one of the followers says, how do we become more like you? And he says, don't be more like me. I've been trying to be more like you. And the followers go, that's a bullshit answer. We're not gonna take it. And they leave. And then Tommy looks at his family and they all sing. Listening to you. I hear the music. And then everyone comes on stage, forms a seasons of love line at the end of the stage, sings in 5,000 part harmony. And end of the show. So what did I think? This is a long way to get to what did I think? I've always loved the music in Tommy. The story has always been bonkers. My intro to Tommy was the movie, which is pure insanity from start to finish. And I love it. It's just so wild. There are obviously some changes in the movie to both the album and the stage show. There have been some songs added, there are lyrical rewrites, but there are things that the movie changed that the stage show incorporates. There's a whole, you know, musical element of sort of giving updates about Tommy. And it's called Extra, Extra, Extra, Extra. Read all about it. And they include that in the stage show. The revival pretty much keeps the material as it was. The only thing they really change is they cut Tommy's holiday camp in Act 2, sung by, you know, pedophilic Uncle Ernie. And so I always knew the movie, I knew the music. I had never seen the original production live, but I had seen a recording of it, and I'm pretty well boned up on it. So I know what Des Makinoff did with the original production, if not necessarily down to the minutia, but I know enough. And so I went into this production hopeful, but also with temperate expectations, because I'll be honest, Dess has not really done anything that I've loved since Jersey Boys. I enjoyed his revival of Jesus Christ Superstar, but that was more for the Vocals that was one of the best sung productions I've ever seen. It wasn't necessarily anything that Des did. I did not enjoy Dr. Zhivago. I was very underwhelmed by Ain't Too Proud. I did not like Summer. So I definitely want in with Tommy being like, I know that this is something that Dess really kind of created and made an impact with IN93, but let's see. And also, directors coming back to direct a revival of something they created doesn't always work out. James Lapine with Falsettos and signing with Falsettos and Into the woods for me were diminishing returns. Arthur Lawrence, you know, he did not the original Gypsy, but he did do three different revivals. And I have been very vocal on this podcast as to not loving the Patti LuPone gypsy like others did. It's just always difficult when people come back to something they've done, because worst case scenario is, like, they just sort of recreate what they always did, which is, you know, Hal Prince did that with Cabaret, and Fosse did that with Sweet Charity. And it always sort of feels like a museum piece. But then you can also go too far on the other end of, like, well, I've got something to prove, and I'm. I'm bored with what I did before, and now I want to find all these other things. And you have all these flourishes and emphasis that detracts from what makes the show work. So I'd say that this production kind of is like, in the halfway point. I also should say I saw this Tommy the night before it opened, and it was a very enthusiastic crowd, but there was a woman in front of me. And I'm saying all this because I feel like this is representative of also, like, kind of how just everything that I've been sort of hearing all over the place, both with reviews and from people, because also famously, it was my birthday last week, and actually, no, sorry, I saw Tommy two nights before it opened. I saw it on a Tuesday. My birthday was on a Wednesday, and then Tommy opened on a Thursday. Because on my birthday, I did a bar celebration. I had people sort of come in and out all day long. I was there from noon to 11, and so always had, like, two or three friends with me at any point. And there was one moment, like, for an hour where it was four of us who had all seen Tommy, and we were all sort of going back and forth about it, debating how we felt, what the critics were going to say. And then the Thursday reviews came out. So I say this because I go see Tommy. The woman in front of me is having a grand old time. Her two kids, who are about 12, were hating it. They asked at intermission if they could please leave because it was too loud, it was too flashy. They couldn't see it, understand it. You didn't hear it, you didn't see it. But there were two, let's call them, boomer ladies in the front box at the show who just stood up at the finale and were just living their life. So I feel like you're going to hear a lot of that all over the place. But I've had two friends who saw this revival who saw the original in 93. I, again, did not see it because I was so young, but they, you know, the 93 production was very seminal for them. They really did not like this revival. And I had two friends who'd never seen the original production, only sort of knew the music, and they enjoyed it. I had one friend who didn't know anything about Tommy, didn't know the story, and she liked the production, but she didn't like the show. And I feel like a lot of the reviews kind of go into this, of like, you know, the story is the story, but this production is so energetic. And then you had Jesse Green and the Times, who was not pleased with it, and then Helen Shaw for the New Yorker who was not pleased, and whoever wrote for Variety who hated it. And I actually thought kind of wrote a very condescendingly negative review and very simplistic, basically said, like, this is only for boomers. Like, yeah, it's for more than Boomers. I'm sort of halfway. I. I did not hate it like Variety did. I probably. My feelings probably line up more with Jesse Green's, surprisingly, because I have no idea what musical he saw when he saw Water for Elephants, but a little less negative than Jesse, but lining up with him more. This production is odd at a lot of the time, because it opens. It's like how this. There is this framing device almost. The show opens in the future and then goes back to the regular story opening In, I think, 1941, the album. It's 1921, but then they go to 41. So Captain Walker dies in World War II. And I don't know why we start in the future, because then we also sort of, like, end in the future. And I don't. I'm not entirely sure why. I have my theories, and I could be absolutely wrong, and if anyone knows, tell me. But it's almost as if the whole thing comes off like a simulation. Like, we're in one giant video game because it opens with Tommy and his followers, I guess, like, wearing their helmets that shield their, you know, eyes and their ears. And that's something in the album, in the movie as well, where it's, you know, his followers wear them so that way they can not see or hear. And. And, you know, get into the mind frame of Tommy, their new God. And if you didn't know that from the album or movie, you would be like, well, this is just sort of one giant simulation helmet. Like, you know, because we see that now with video games, people have these, like, goggles that they wear so they can feel like they're in the game. And it doesn't help that, like, a lot of the physical elements of the production lean into that sort of simulation. And every now and then throughout the show, you'll have, like, two or three ensemble members pop out with those helmets. And my. My friend who saw it and, you know, didn't know the story very well, she was like. I think that was to sort of, like, you know, remind you that he couldn't see or hear. I was like, I don't know. I guess because the thing is that, you know, even though. Yes, that is what his. What Tommy's followers wear when they start following him, once he can see and hear again, those helmets pop up throughout the show before we get to that moment in the story. So I don't know if it's meant to be foreshadowing where Tommy's story ends up or if it is to remind you that it is a simulation, because, again, like, the whole thing has a video game aesthetic. It's very neon. It's very. There's a lot of yellow. For some reason, Dess has decided that yellow is, like, the popping color of the show. And yellow is not a color that pops, in my opinion, especially when it's surrounded by giant bright lights. The original production had a very sort of art pop look. It was a lot of colors. Very bright, very abstract, very wham, pow. And this is a lot more streamlined and simple. Everything is very implied. There are no actual pinball machines for Tommy to play with. It's like a table with a neon framing. And, I mean, I was sort of underwhelmed by that, but I didn't think much of it other than the fact that I was underwhelmed. Helen Shaw in the New Yorker went on this whole diatribe about how she felt it was the team taking for granted that everyone just knew the story and that everyone coming into Tommy was coming into Tommy because they knew it, they loved it. There was absolutely no one who didn't know the story and didn't know about the pinball stuff. So, like, why should they be literal? Because everyone just knows. And the truth is that enough time has passed. There are a lot of people who don't know, because I have had a lot of people reach out to me about Tommy being like, the fuck is this story? In fact, with the problematic series, when I was polling people for submissions, a few people entered Tommy because they had seen it at the Goodman or they, you know, boned up on it in preparation for it coming to Broadway. And they were like, I didn't know this is what the show was. And I am so thrown, and I'm kind of disturbed. Tommy's never been disturbing for me. It's always just been kind of wild. Especially because some of the heavier stuff that it deals with, it deals with rather flippantly. And, you know, his being molested by his uncle just sort of happens and never gets dealt with ever again. The show tries to deal with it, that Uncle Ernie's been traumatized by the war and thus sort of dives deeper into drinking. And so he's just very, very troubled. But again, they don't really allow the actor enough space to explore that. And they don't give him enough material in Act 2 again, because they cut one of his songs to have more to do. There's a video of the original cast at a 15th anniversary concert. And the actor who played Uncle Ernie, who was Tony nominated at the time, I think it's Paul Keating. I think it's his name. He does a wonderful job because he's. He's creepy, but you can tell he's also very troubled, and it's quite disturbing. I. I enjoyed it thoroughly. Obviously, I enjoyed his performance in that. In that video thoroughly. The actor doing it this time is good. He doesn't get to the meat of that creepiness, though. I would say that all the principal actors in this Tommy, for me, were vocally stellar, but I didn't get a lot of passion. It was a very muted tone from everyone, which, again, goes with sort of the muted color palette of the production. The ensemble is giving all of the heat that you want from a production of Tommy. They are singing their faces off. They are dancing their asses off. They are really, truly giving a hundred thousand percent. There's a wonderful moment before the song Acid Queen that is sung by Danny Quadrino, friend of the Pod. And I'm looking up his name. He plays Hawker. His name is Slowly but Surely. I shall find it. Sheldon Henry. They sing the, you know, she Brings Sight or whatever that song is called in the movie. It's about Marilyn Monroe, don't ask. But they sing, you know, sort of the intro to Acid Queen and it's fantastic. They, you know, every time people do that, that sequence, they get applause because it's just so ferocious. And if you don't believe me again, watch the 15th anniversary concert. And Danny and Sheldon just absolutely nail it. And they got applause for that. Unfortunately. It then leads into Acid Queen, which for me was very underwhelming in this production. The actress who does it, it doesn't sound vocally in her wheelhouse. It's staged kind of awkwardly in my opinion. There's a whole thing with a spinning wheel that adds a mystical element to the Acid Queen. But, you know, it was very confusing for me. What this production does do well for me, it is very, very energetic. It keeps moving, which I appreciate. It's not all weird or all bad. It's. There's a lot that I really enjoyed. For me, the problem was that it was sporadic. You know, there was never a 20 minute uninterrupted sequence that I loved. It was more sort of like every couple of five minutes there would be something that I loved. You know, the beginning of the overture I really enjoyed. And then it kind of got over choreographed, in my opinion. I think the whole show is sort of over choreographed. Lauren Lotaro, you know, will have moments where the dancing feels organic and seamlessly coming out of the scene. And then in my opinion, she'll just go way too far. And I knew that was going to happen pretty much at the top of the show because when Captain Walker and Mrs. Walker meet and then they go sort of like on their first date or whatever at this like sock hop dance, Lauren has the whole ensemble come out and just like go hog wild. Flips, kicks, twirls, splits, cooter slams, everything. And I mean, there's no actual cooter slams, but you get the idea. Just like it's a lot, it's a lot of, A lot of energy. And I was like, you don't have to go that hard a. This early, but you just sometimes you don't need to go that hard. Sometimes you can just have things move. If there's one thing that Des Mackinaff understands with this production is the importance of movement in a story like Tommy. Keep things going. It's sort of The Phantom of the Opera trick of, you know, the more you allow your audience to think about what they're seeing, the more they're gonna rebel. So you just want to keep it going, keep it going, get them swept up in the vibration of the piece. And that is something that this production does do well, pretty often, is that it is just always moving. There's always something to look at. Sometimes there is too much to look at. If I were to pinpoint my main problem with the production, for me, it is sensory overload. Because between the relatively simple set design, but heavy on projections and bright lighting and very loud sound, and there's this sort of lighting grid element that they have to the design that sort of. It slides in and out to create all these different square like shapes. You know, it's different framing devices and to highlight certain areas of the stage in addition to the projections and the constantly moving ensemble. There are a lot of times where it's just. It's. It's a lot. And it would be nice not to have things be simple. Like, I'm not talking about a ring of keys where everyone just stands. That's obviously safe for the end. But there were moments where I was like, I think we can edit here. I don't think that the ensemble needs to be doing a 10 out of 10 dance right now. I think that they could do a seven out of ten. And we can focus on these two characters right now. And we also can maybe get rid of some of the yellow and allow the actors to give a little more heat. Because right now the actors are just very muted. Ali. Lewis Borski. Yeah, Ollie. Lewis Borski, who plays the oldest Tommy, sings incredibly well. He gave me a lot of Josh Young vibes in Jesus Christ Superstar, actually, because his voice is a very heavy baritone sound, but he has tenor notes, which is always thrilling. And it's not the sound you usually hear for a show like Tommy. And that was. That was lovely to hear from me, but it was a very calm performance, very grounded and zoned in, which I don't hate on principle. You know, that's something that Marianne Plunkett does beautifully in the Notebook, but you have to kind of match the temperature of the show you're in. And this is not an Ollie problem alone, again, as I said, this is something that a lot of the actors do. And I think that's just something that people. Des Makinoff wanted for this show was for the principal performers to be more nuanced and human. And again, I don't hate that on principle, I would love that in a lot more shows. I would have loved that kind of performance in the 2018 garbage carousel. But no, it's Tommy. You've got your ensemble sweating three pounds of sweat every night. You've got the loudest speakers in the world to the point that I'm not sure, but my eardrums exist anymore. And you've got every projection in the land. I don't think your performances that are at the center of this really hold up when all that's happening around them. You could argue, well, that's to counteract everything. It's to balance it out. And I'm like, I think it actually cools the production down a bit by a few degrees. And that's not something you wanted, Tommy. You want it to just go, go, go, go, go. In terms of Tony's, I will say this is definitely my number two in revivals right now after Merrily. It's not a distant second because as I've mentioned before, I was not thrilled with Merrily. I liked Merrily, but I think that tales of its extraordinariness have been exaggerated a little bit. But Tommy is definitely number two ahead of Gutenberg and Spamalot. But you know, it's. The musicals have continually disappointed me and I wanted to love Tommy more than I actually did. There were moments that again that I was just thrilled with and then moments that I just went what? They also, they speaking of over choreographed the two youngest Tommy's because they have, you know, little, Little Tommy, Medium Tommy and then Ollie is the oldest Tommy. And both little, little Tommy and Medium Tommy, when they're, you know, when Medium Tommy is getting bullied by cousin Kevin and all of his friends. When you, little Tommy is getting tested by all the scientists, those children are getting tossed around like goddamn ragdolls. And I did clutch my Pearls because it was just so intense. Like obviously this thing has been rehearsed and safety trained within an inch of its life. But I did go, oh my. It's like floppity flip, flip, flop. But so in terms of Tonys, we were talking about this with performances earlier when we had Dylan on, you know, everything depends on where Ollie goes as eligibility for Tommy is concerned. Michael Cerverus was put in featured actor in a musical in 1993. And I think there is still a case to be made for that. I have a feeling the production is going to want, want to put Ali in lead because that's a little more open of a field we have. I think we've got two locks for nominations right now with Jonathan Groff and Brian d' Arcy James, probably Eddie Redmayne as well for Cabaret, which just started previews yesterday as this moment that I'm recording on a Tuesday morning at 9:30. But, you know, there are a couple of slots still open and featured actors looking incredibly crowded. So they might want to put Ali there. Whether the Tonys actually agree to that is another question. Because oldest Tommy doesn't really feel like a lead, especially in this production, because Ali is not really giving that heated kind of performance. It is a zoned in, you know, calming presence throughout most of Act One. Like, he's sort of Tommy pops in and out of Act 1 as not a narrator, but sort of like inner thoughts of youngest Tommy or, you know, commenting on the action sensation, things like that. And it doesn't feel like a lead performance, not to me anyway. It feels like a major featured performance. And, you know, if that is where he ends up going featured, he could get nominated. I think it is definitely the most performance of everyone in the show that, you know, people would gravitate towards. I was, you know, I. I found Adam Jacobs to be fine as Captain Walker or as Bobby Conte Thornton, although I guess he now goes by Bobby Cotton Conte. Bobby Conte as Cousin Kevin. He was good. He actually sounded really good. Not that he doesn't ever sound good, but his voice in past shows like Company and Bronxdale has had a more like, musical theory, you know, manly sound. And so for Cousin Kevin, I was like, well, he's supposed to be impish and rocky, so I wonder what that's gonna sound like. And he actually, he fit the tone quite well. Alison Luff sounds great. She looks great. Again, not much passion on her end. So I don't. I don't really see her getting in there. Not when we have, you know, all of the younger allies for Notebook, plus, you know, B.B. neuorth and Lindsay Mendez and. Fuck, who else? Keisha Lewis for Hell's Kitchen. You know, there's. There's just a lot of competition of featured actors. So I just. I personally don't see Alison Luff getting in there unless the nominators really go hog wild for Tommy. I think Tommy definitely has a revival nomination locked up. They probably have a good shot at lighting and set design just because it is, you know, even if it's a lot, it is impressive, the technical elements of the design. I could see Lauren getting nominated for choreography, if only because, again, with choreography, we tend to nominate most and usually give it to most, not necessarily best, but we'll talk about that more in a second as I get to the Outsiders, because I was actually thinking about the choreography candidates, and there are more of them than I realize. Yeah, I mean, I. I know it's a rock show. I cannot in good faith nominate them for set for sound design. Obviously, they're giving what Dess wants, which is, you know, overwhelm people with the sound. It was 10 decibels too much. I can handle loud. And I famously have gone on this podcast to berate Sweeney Todd for not being loud enough, but this was just too much for me. It was overbearing. I could see Des getting in for direction for Tommy. It is a very stagey production, and again, we tend. People tend to think of direction now as just the staging, but it does mean also tone and structure and making sure that the entire cast is on the same page. If there is one performance you don't like, you have to kind of blame the director for that. They cast them. They directed them. You. You know, sometimes people give a really phenomenal audition, and you see the potential for what they could do, and then once you're in the room, you see that that potential won't happen, and you're, you know, kind of stuck because you. It's very rare that people get replaced in rehearsals or previews anymore. You are kind of stuck with who you've cast. But it's. You know, there's, like, one major performance in Merrily that I don't like, and it's why I'm not sure I would vote for Maria Friedman for director, because that's part of her decision making. But, yeah, I mean, I don't know how much I've explained for Tommy, but that's sort of where I'm at with Tommy. I didn't hate it. I didn't love it. I was sort of very much in the middle. There were things that I loved, there were things that I liked, and there were things that baffled me. And I know that the production has its fans, and when we read reviews, we. You know, we see what we want to see. When you love a show, you want the reviews to be good. And if a review is not good, no matter how well written it is or. Or how eloquently they express what they didn't like, you read it and you go, well, this person's garbage. That's not usually how I go. I more just get baffled. I'm like, why? Why did you hate this? Like, I have pretty good taste, and I'm I, I think this was good. Which again, we'll get to in a second. Or if, you know, you saw something, thought it was terrible and the reviews were great, you're like, the fuck? Like, am I the problem? Is it me? So the reviews for Tommy, what was fascinating is like a lot of strong reviews and then like three major publications that did not like it. And I'm sure that, you know, the marketing team for Tommy is not, you know, losing any sleep. They got enough pull quotes to last them for a while and they're gonna get that revival nomination and it has a built in audience, so it's gonna run for a minute. But it does sort of reflect the kind of crowd sourcing that I was getting because I spoke to a lot of different people, both on my birthday online. And you know, when I went to go see it myself, I had a lot of people flood my DMs and go, oh my God, isn't it incredible? Didn't you love it then? I actually saw some people that I knew at that production, at that performance that I was at, who all posted on social media later. Oh my God, I love theater. This was a thrill. This was a joyride. And then like spoke to people throughout the week who were like, oh yeah, I saw it a few days ago. I did not care for it. And it's always just funny how that happens, you know. And I think that is something to watch out for when it comes to Tommy. In the same way that we talked about this with Slave Play, Slave Play gets all these Tony nominations. And the narrative online is that it's going to sweep. It's, you know, it's obviously going to win play. The question is, how many more Tonys will it win? And then it goes on to win nothing. And it's because there was a conversation between behind the scenes of people going, can I tell you what I actually thought? And it's possible that more people than not do love this production of Tommy, but there are people who did not love it and will tell you so. Maybe not online, but like in closed door, in closed rooms. And that can influence people. The people that I've spoken to about it are not like randos. They are people in the industry who are not nominators themselves. But know nominators work with nominators work with voters. Some of them are voters themselves. So it's, it'll be a very fascinating race. With that, moving on to the Outsiders. So the Outsiders is based off of the S.E. hinton novel that I read in middle school. Which I'm sure many people read in middle school. It is a controversial book. It is banned in some school districts. It was controversial when it came out because it dealt with teenagers, smoking and drinking and violence and a lot of foul language. But it is definitely a classic and established Essie Hinton as a major writer for her generation. And she wrote other novels such as Rumble Fish, and I think she wrote the Outsiders when she was, like, 16, which is why it is sort of, like, very grungy ya. And there was also a film version in the 80s directed by Francis Ford Coppola, with a, you know, lot of actors who went on to have major careers, like Rob Lowe, Matt Dillon, Patrick Swayze, Emilio Estevez, Tom Cruise. Ever heard of him? Ralph Macchio, Diane Lane. And I was very wary of this musical. First of all, as I've said before, this has been a very underwhelming season for new musicals. Musicals in general, but definitely new musicals. And the word from out of town was incredibly mixed. And I had a lot of friends go in for the Outsiders who looked at their sides and told me, I think this is garbage. And so I was like. I took that into account as I headed in, especially because the early word from previews was extraordinarily positive. You know, people were going online and being like, okay, this took me out and took me by surprise. I didn't know what to expect. But I just love this. I think this is the hit of the season. And also, you know, it was selling quite well. Angelina Jolie is a producer on it, and while she doesn't really have much creative say, she has some sway with, you know, marketing. She can really sort of get the word out there about it. I'm sure she'll use her A list connections to get really cool people at opening, which will help. It does have a libretto by Adam Rapp, playwright Adam Rapp and Justin Levine. Justin Levine also worked on the score with Jamestown Revival, which is a folktown duo. Justin Levine, up until now, has mostly just done arrangements and music direction, you know, working with Alex Timbers, mostly Bloody, bloody Andrew Jackson, Moulin Rouge, Here Lies Love did a really, in my opinion, like, masterful job with Moulin Rouge, a show that I have been very open on here that I do not like. But I think that the one thing that they did get right was they got Justin Levine to oversee the music because he made all of those songs sound like they belonged in the same world. It did not have a bipolar issue, which some scores do. Scores that are written for their shows, like Mean Girls. Sorry, not sorry. The Outsiders. I was deeming violent newsies up until I saw it because, you know, it's a very male heavy cast. It's about sort of lower class younger guys who are fighting against the system. In the Outsiders, it's very west side Story, you know, they. It's the Greasers who are the kids from the wrong side of the tracks versus the socias and sort of meaning, you know, short for socials, who are from the right side of the tracks. And it's very class warfare and ends with a major rumble and violence. And it focuses on a 14 year old kid named Ponyboy Curtis, who is an orphan living with his two older brothers, Darryl and Sodapop. Their parents died in a car crash a year or two prior. Darryl, the oldest brother, you know, is the provider. He has to work all the time to, you know, make sure that his brothers and he have a roof over their heads and have food. So it basically like has to become apparent way before he is meant to. And Soda Pop is the pretty boy and, and very likable, but he doesn't really step up to the plate all that much. So Ponyboy is an intellectual. He likes to read, he likes to go to the movies. His best friend Johnny is a very sweet greaser and he gets, you know, becomes friendly with this Soc girl named Sherry Valance, otherwise known as Cherry because she's a redhead and Judas, you know, a very, you know, violent encounter with soces that almost kills Ponyboy. Johnny ends up killing a Soc. So they go on the run. They go into hiding in this abandoned church, I guess. Yeah, this like old church. And I. It's hard to like really go through the plot beyond that because it's just sort of like. And then this happened. And then this happened, and then this happened. Which is a problem that I've found with a lot of musicals lately is that there is no sticking point that we are driving towards. You know, it's not like here's what we are teasing that we're getting to or like, here's our character's motivation. Their want that they're gonna, you know, drive towards and we're going to see how they get there. And so there's like this little motor to the show. It's just very much like, you know, here's my story. A, B, C, D, E, curtain. That's sort of what it is with the notebook. It's what it is with Water for Elephants. The Water for Elephants teases this, you know, stampede. Or they rather say. They say this great disaster that happens at the top of the show that they never bring up again. And then it just sort of happens towards the end of Act 2, and it's very rushed. But the Outsiders is a similar thing where it's like ABC date. So, you know, Ponyboy and Johnny go into hiding, and then there's a fire in the church, and they save a bunch of kids with their friend Dallas, and it puts them on the front page. But that means that Johnny's now in the hospital because he's got severe burns and smoke in his lungs. And the Greasers and the Socias then have a giant rumble, and the Greasers end up winning the rumble, so they get territory over, you know, a lot of the land. But as soon as that happens, Johnny dies, and Dallas is wracked with guilt, so he commits suicide. And Ponyboy and his brothers Daryl and Soda Pop kind of have to, like, regroup and continue on from there, and. And Ponyboy has to now make good on his promise to his brothers and be somebody because, you know, they are working and robbing themselves of their youth so that way he can have a future. And that's sort of like how the show ends. So what did I think? I actually quite liked the Outsiders. It is directed by Donya Taymor, which. It's not her Broadway debut as a director, but it's definitely her debut as a musical director because she mostly does plays. She did Passover on Broadway a few years ago, as well as off Broadway. She did Jeremy O. Harris's Daddy off Broadway. I just saw her production of Jonah at Roundabout, which is. I believe that was my introduction to Danya as a director. I don't think I'd seen any of her works before then. And I really liked Jonah, and I liked what she did with Jonah, and some of the things she does in Jonah she actually does in the Outsiders. Speaking of sound design, going off of Tommy, I would actually give the Outsiders best sound design right now, right here. I think that sound design is not only really crisp and clear, and they do some really cool things with the sound in that show, but it's the kind of sound design that, you know, nominators can recognize and voters can recognize. It's just very well done. And, you know, if I. If I had to, like, lay it out on the line and fight people about an outsider's nomination and win, it would be for sound design, which sounds weird, you know, like, that's such a random one to go to bat for. But, you know, if you see the show, you get it. I also think that of the new musicals so far this season, the Outsiders has the best score. It's not always well integrated. I think that the script for the Outsiders is sort of fine. You know, it gets the job done, but it doesn't have that drive that I was talking about. It is abcd, which is, you know, something that you expect in a novel. Novels aren't always. Aren't structured like musicals. A character doesn't explain their want at the very top, and then, you know, you watch them get it. It's just sort of, you know, many events that are strung together and then you get sort of an overall feeling or impact at the end. They could like, you know, Catcher in the Rye or Grapes of Wrath or things like that. But for musical, you do kind of need that. And I didn't think that the script for the Outsiders does that. They. They keep the action moving quite a lot. One thing that they keep is Ponyboy as a narrator, which I don't love. Or rather, I should say I felt they used a little too much. But I have felt that way with narration for all of the shows this year. There's so many musicals with narrators, and they're all used way too much. You know, Notebook. You can't escape it. He's literally reading a notebook. Water for Elephants. They needed to cut down a whole lot. I don't know how much they've cut of the narration in Hell's Kitchen. From what I understand, it's pretty much the same show as it was at the Public, minus added hydraulics aside. But y', all. I mean, like, you can't have your show be heavy on narration. You gotta let us live in the scenes with the characters in the moment. You know, if you're just commenting on the subtext, outwardly, to us, we've got nothing to take away. We are just being told what to feel, what to think. And that's. It's not lazy. It's just pandering. Actually, no, it is a little lazy. There's a time and place for a narration. And I say this as someone who has narration in his own play, but there's. You gotta know when you're using it. And I will also say with the narration of my play. You know, every character has a moment where they speak to the audience, and some of it is commenting on tropes and not necessarily the action. And then sometimes it's people talking about themselves and you take away from the stories they're telling or the things they're telling you about themselves. It's not like, you know, a scene stops so someone can turn to the audience to be like. And then I felt A, and she probably felt B. That's bad writing. That is bad writing. And I don't like it. In musicals especially, it's. It's not egregious in the Outsiders. It's not painful for me, but. But I did think it took away a little bit from some of the emotional potency of the show and does keep some of the songs from feeling seamless from the story. But there are songs in the show that I think work really well, and I think that it's very melodic and very energetic. For every song that I was like, the opening number for the Outsiders, I don't remember what it's called. I think it's called Tulsa 1967 or something. I think the opening is kind of lame. And I remember I watched it going like, oh, God, I may not like this show. And then it picked up for me. You know, Daryl, the older brother, has a couple of songs that I really love. And, you know, there's a lot of heat to the score in this show, to the production itself. You know, Danya Taymor really emphasizes that these are sweaty, dirty, probably stinky boys. A lot of wetness. There's a lot of water in it. There's rain for the rumble sequence. The choreography is, in my opinion, pretty exceptional. Danya has also staged it very excitingly. And again, no, direction does not just mean staging, but I think she keeps the tone of the show pretty strong throughout. She keeps the momentum going, despite the fact that there's not a motor to the script and it's cast very well. It's a whole bunch of, you know, people making their Broadway debuts. There's some, in my opinion, some really strong acting happening, even if, like, the scenes don't really deserve it. I thought there was a lot of restraint from a lot of the actors that didn't go into, you know, melodrama. The actors playing Dallas and Daryl were probably my biggest standouts. Joshua Boone as Dallas and then Brent Comer as Darryl would be who I would put forward as contenders for featured actor in a musical. The lead is very much Brody Grant as Ponyboy, and he does a good job. He's got a very wonderful voice. He's got a natural charisma to him. He does have a bit of what I call cottonmouth, where it reminds me a bit of Colton Ryan with New York, New York, although that was a little more like Kermit the Froggy voice, because it was also so obviously put upon. But there's just. Sometimes there's addiction thing, and sometimes it just feels like there's something in his mouth that keeps him from saying the words in a way that you can fully understand. It's not a huge problem. And it makes sense in context of the show of who his character is and where he's from. But every now and then it's like, I didn't catch that lyric. Or sometimes it makes the lyric not land well, because how he says it is just so. Or how he sings it is so odd. There aren't a ton of gals in the show. The biggest role is Emma Pittman as Cherry Valance. And I gotta say, Emma did a really lovely job. It's not a role that's huge, but nor is it, like, incredibly well defined. But Cherry's not well defined in the book either. You know, she. The role is even smaller in the movie, despite the fact that it's played by a very young, soon to be movie star, Diane Lane. But Emma does a very nice job, I don't think. You know, it's a role that you get nominated for. I think that the three actors who have a shot would be Brody Grant for Ponyboy in lead. I wouldn't put him in my top five. I think it's just because I think it's such a. There are just a lot of possibilities there. But he was probably, like, on the cusp. I probably might be like, at number six right now. And then Joshua Boone and Brent Comer. And it's. I think the lighting design is also very well done. They do a lot of things with violence in the show. It's a very violent production and they do not shy away from it. And I like that because if they did, it would be a little too Newsies. And Newsies is a show that is very, in my opinion, surface level for a show that's about a, you know, very desperate, downtrodden group of young boys in a pathetic and upsetting circumstance. The show is. Is Disney. So it is very like gung ho Santa Fe carrying the banner Cooter slam splits, kicks and twirls with, you know, it's sort of like a little smudge of dirt on the cheek. And it's like, that's how, you know, we're poor. And the Outsiders is like, no, no, no. These are violent kids. They're. They're willing to cut a bitch. And they have, you know, dirty mouths and dirty mindsets. And I appreciated that. The Rumble is exceptionally well done. I Turned to my friend afterwards, and I was like, that was fucking hot. It's. It's. It is very theatrical without losing the meat of the violence, which is important in this show. My friend, who is a Tony voter, kind of hated the Outsiders. He thought that the book was laughable. He thought that the score was simple. He loved the cast. He was like, well, everyone in it is hot as hell. And he thought that they all did very solid jobs with the material that they had. He liked the choreography enough. The stage is also covered in gravel, so sometimes with choreography, with kicks and. And jumps and whatnot, gravel will get out into the audience. And it was funny watching people, like, shield themselves. But he didn't. He didn't like the show. He thought it was pretty underwhelming and weak. Which just goes to show how the narrative has been going with musicals this season. There hasn't been a single show that people can get behind that were like, this is the one. This is the one that we all agree on is the good one. And he's pretty sure Outsiders opens in a week. It'll open a week from when this episode comes out. He's convinced the reviews are going to eviscerate this show. I think they're going to be a little kinder, if only because there is a palpable energy to it that you can't deny. In the same way that there was an energy to Tommy that clearly overwhelmed a lot of the critics. You know, again, we had Jesse Green for the Times, Helen Shaw for the New Yorker, and whoever wrote for Variety that, you know, were not thrilled with it. And then we had Johnny Whatsits face from the Post, who's fucking weird, and gave Tommy four stars. So it's just. And, you know, Juan Ramirez for Theater League gave it a rave. And I guess it's a matter of, like, you know, when you agree to sign up for the. I don't know how you would describe it, the manipulation almost, of a show of a musical. Because musicals are manipulative, right? It's a human experience told in a compact amount of time with songs that are meant to inform you of a character, but also kind of, like, force you to feel a certain kind of way, which is. It's, you know, that's manipulation. But it only feels manipulative if you don't buy it. And I bought it for the Notebook for the most part. I didn't buy it for Water for Elephants. I bought it for the most part, for the Outsiders. I didn't buy it for Tommy. And it's so weird to see how people have been reacting in different ways. We go out for a drink afterwards, my friend and I, to talk about the show, and our hostess saw our Playbill. She goes, oh, I'm really excited to see that. And my friend goes, oh, I didn't care for it. He liked it, though. And she goes, oh, that's. That's disappointing. And he goes. My friend goes, but, you know, I didn't like the Notebook either. And she goes, oh, I really didn't like the Notebook. And I'm like, this is so weird because, you know, I go see the Notebook with a. With a friend, and we both are super into it, and we talked to a few people who had seen it the week before, and they were into it. And I had just seen Water for Elephants and was not into that. And a lot of my friends were not into Water for Elephants. Now I've had a few friends see Lempicka and, like, the number of people within, you know, 24 hours who had all seen Lempicka and sent me messages, and half of them were like, you know what? I found that really good, compelling. I think this is going to be something to, you know, look forward to for people who are, you know, interested in it. And then the other half were like, well, that show exists. You know, we don't have a Hamilton or a Fun Home or even a Kimberly Akimbo. Kimberly Akimbo has its detractors, but the majority of reviews, the majority of audiences when it came to Broadway was like, no, this is a good show. You cannot like it, but it's good. And it was easy to get behind it come Tony time. And I don't know if there's a show yet. We're hoping maybe Illinois, but who knows? There hasn't been a musical yet that everyone can agree on is, like, the one we're gonna push forward as the musical contender. For me, right now, it's probably the Outsiders. It's between the Outsiders and the Notebook, neither of which I would give a 10 out of 10 or even a 9 out of 10. If I were being generous, I would say 8 out of 10. But I'm probably, if I'm being honest, I'd say 7.5 for both, maybe 7. Both have their flaws, both have their positives, but, you know, I thought that there was a lot of interesting craftsmanship in the Outsiders that I didn't see in a lot of musicals. What's interesting is that my friend was really hot on Water for Elephants. You know, he agreed that that show had its problems. But he was like, I think they make more out of very little with Water for Elephants. Whereas he didn't feel that way with the Outsiders. And I was like, oh, I kind of. We're the reverse here. I did not think Water for Elephants made the most of what they could have. Jessica Stone and the design team really work wonders with stage images. But then I know a lot of people who saw that and were like, I thought the puppets were laughable. And I watched the Outsiders was like, I found it compelling. And my friend was like, I thought all the book scenes were laughable. So it's just, we are all over the place, which actually makes it a very interesting Tony season, because anything can happen, anything goes. If I were to be a nominator and you were and I were to nominate the Outsiders, I would nominate it for musical. So score book. Yes. Because just like, I think the book is not fantastic, but I think it's fine enough and just there aren't enough strong books this year. I would nominate Brent Comer. Is that the name I said for. For Darryl. Sorry, what's his name? Sorry, I'm all over the place, guys. Apologies. Yeah, Brent Comer for Darryl. He was probably my favorite performance in the show. I would nominate him. Lighting, design, staging. Sorry, direction, Direction and choreography. Right now, it is my front runner for choreography, having not seen Illinois yet. Orchestrations, definitely sound and definitely lighting. So I'm very excited to see what happens with that. I think even reviews aside, I do think the Outsiders will be a contender for Tony's. It's much more musical theatery than the Notebook, so I feel like it will have its fans. And as we've also seen, you know, reviews don't always dictate how nominations are going to go. New York, New York kind of got ripped apart and got 9, 10 nominations. Camelot also got ripped apart. That got a revival nomination. You know, Paradise Square ripped apart. That got a bunch of nominations, one win. Wicked famously did not get great reviews, has, you know, still been running, became a big hit and. And got a lot of nominations. I think what the Outsiders needs is. Just needs, like, a couple of positive reviews, and it needs to continue with its ticket sales because it has been selling well. And if the ticket sales continue, that's enough momentum for nominators to be like, we. If we're going to get behind something, let's get behind the thing that, like, is doing well because we need people to come to Broadway. And I think that could happen with the Outsiders. Very much so. But we shall see. Now, we need to get into the section of the show where we go into your Tony predictions, your bold Tony predictions that I will read for y'. All. But before we get into any of that, let's take a quick break. Billy, I beg to differ with you. How do you mean? You're the top. Yeah. You're an Arrow caller. You're the top. You're a Coolidge dollar. You're the nimble tread of the feet of Fred. Welcome back. We are now getting to your guys. Bold Tony predictions. First off, I need to go into my DMs, because I had two people who wrote to me specifically and didn't go to the anonymous link. One person said that Amber Amon in Lempicka is. Is going to be that show's only Tony win. That is indeed bold. I see Lempicka on Thursday, the day that this episode comes out, so I can talk about that more in next week's episode. I have heard wonderful things about Amber Amon. The one thing that everyone is in agreement on is that Amber is the biggest highlight of the show. I also had someone say that Stereophonic will win best score. Honestly, totally possible. I need to see Stereophonic. I see that in a week as well. I see that next Saturday, and I've heard great things about that score. I do think. Think it'll get nominated. I think that'll be. That's my. That's like one of my big, hot, bold takes, is that it gets a score nomination. And, I don't know, maybe it could win. It's really difficult for voters to get behind voting for a play for score when there's a musical right there. There have been years when they could have and they didn't. And, you know, it's. It's same thing with, like, you know, when your show is closed and you're nominated, they're like, I don't see the point. This thing's running. And I don't know, I'm more hyped about it. Recency bias is very much a thing, so we'll see. All right, let's get into some of these anonymous ones now, y'. All. And I will do my best to go as fast as I can. There are, I think, 60 of them, and some of them may not even be about Tony. Some of them might just be AMAs, and I will just skip them if I can. Okay, someone has a hot take already. Jonathan Groff is not nominated for Best Actor because Franklin Shepard is a boring character. Also, Gatsby is completely shut out. Ooh, we are coming in hot. You have to remember the politics of Broadway and the Tonys. Jonathan Groff will be nominated even if you don't like the character. And I mean, listen, the character. It's not that for me that the character is boring so much as I'd find the character. His. His arc makes no sense to me. And I think that Jonathan does the best he can. I suppose he tries to make the most sense of the character as anyone can. I think the person who's made the most sense of it, no surprise here, is Michael Hayden in the Kennedy center production. But Jonathan does a decent job. But Jonathan is also incredibly well liked in his community. He's incredibly well liked and he is the lead of what is really the only hot ticket musical of the season. So it's just gonna happen. It's gonna happen. But I do like that hot take. You know, it could be like the Margot Robbie and Barbie situation and it would be a whole, whole headline. But yeah, we'll see. I disagree with that hot take, but I love you for making it. And then Gatsby being completely shut out. I think we're gonna see Gatsby get nominated for set in costumes at the very least. Again, because it's a very heavily designed show. And when it comes to set design and costume design, they. They. Costume design especially they go with period pieces and that's, you know, they never go with like the. They never go with contemporary and they never go with like deconstructed period, with the exception being six. But that's like the only time in the last, like 30 years that they've done that. I don't know. Maybe Gatsby will get shut out. I haven't seen it yet. I haven't heard great things. But we'll see. Next one, what does Back to the Future get nominated for? Great question. If I. We're talking predictions here, so I couldn't tell you what the nominators are thinking. If gun to my head, what I would nominated for would be set lighting and sound. And honestly, that's it. There are people who are convinced it's going to get nominated for a whole slew of things. But I want to emphasize to y', all, and I'm not like, I don't speak for the entire community. I'm sure there are people who will go against the grain with anything I say, as I've been talking about with outsiders and Water for Elephants and Notebook and Tommy, you know, there are the people who love them. The people who hate. I have yet to speak to a single person working on Broadway, on stage, behind the scenes, producer, director, anything like that, who has been complimentary towards Back to the Future. The best thing I've heard from anyone is I had a good time. But no one has said that they thought it was good. No one has said that they think it has any artistic merit. And not even like a, you know, Sweeney Todd or Follies, you know, it's so deep. But even in a Mamma Mia. Like, it's fun and they do the damn thing well. They're just like, it's not very good, but had fun. And that's not really what you want to hear about a show, especially when you're. When you're talking about awards. Here someone writes Water for Elephants wins best Musical. We have no front runner, kids. And so it could happen. It's the only new musical this season that's currently running that has a critics pick from the New York Times. Not that that means anything anymore, but, you know, Days of Wine and Roses, I think we can see that get shut out of best Musical. I think it'll get a score nomination. I think Kelly and Brian will get nominated. But, you know, I was hoping maybe there was a shot that Here Lies Love could sort of pull the Scottsboro Boys and come back in at the end with, you know, a postmortem slew of nominations, if not necessarily wins. And I think that's looking less likely. I mean, I think right now, our three locks for best musical are Water for Elephants, Notebook, and Outsiders. You know, critics be damned. Next one. Kelly o' Hara wins best Actress because Eden Espinosa seems to be essentially out of the running. I don't know what's going on with Eden. Early word from Lempico is that she was the weakest of the bunch, and now it's sort of turning positively in her favor. But also, I don't. I never thought that Eden was the front runner to win anyway. I thought she would get nominated. I thought that actors would be Kelly Gayle ranking for Cabaret, Eden for Lempicka, the lead gal from Hell's Kitchen, and then Marianne Plunkett for Notebook again, because I know that they're trying to put Marianne in lead. We'll see what ends up happening. She's getting nominated in whatever category she's in, and if she doesn't, I will absolutely tear Broadway limb from limb. And then I guess, like, our other only real competitor would be Ava Noblezada for Gatsby, unless they put Izzy Michaela in lead for Water for Elephants. She is the female lead of that show. But I'm not sure if it's a true leading role. Tbd. I mean, leading actress is an interesting category. Kelly could win, but as I said before, it's really hard to win when your show has closed. It hasn't happened in 25 years. And when you look at the performances that have won in closed shows, it's, you know, it's just sort of lined up for them. Martin Short winning for Little Me made sense because that is a role that is a tour de force that he was critically praised for. And in his category, he was one of three nominees that were in closed shows. The only performance that was still running was Tom Wopat for Annie get yout Gun. And that man was not gonna win. So we'll see. But I don't think Kelly will win. She'll get nominated, though. Next up, the very next one writes, it's Gale's Tony to lose. This person wrote this thing before Cabaret had even started previews, unless they were at the invited dress. You know, Sally Bowles is not a role that immediately wins Tonys. People like to think that it is, and it has. It has won hardware in the past. Liza won the Oscar, Natasha Richardson won the Tony, and then Jesse Buckley won the Olivier. But, you know, Michelle Williams did not get nominated for the last RiRi revival. Jill Hayworth famously did not get nominated in the original production. Alison Reed was the very first Sally to get Tony nominated for Hal Prince's recreation in the 80s. And then I don't know what happened with Jane horrocks in the 90s with that revival. I know that when Cabaret was revived in the mid-2000s in London, the Sally was not nominated. So, like, you know, Fraulein Schneider and Herr Schultz are the roles that tend to always get nominated. The MC often, too. The MC always tends to win. But, yeah, we'll see. I think Gail will get nominated. I think it's because we're sort of in a weak field for leading actress, and it's anyone's guess. I think Gayle will get in there and if she delivers, she could win again because her show will be running. But I would vote for Marianne. I think what Marianne is doing in Notebook is extraordinary. The caveats to that are she doesn't sing until the very end, and it's, you know, it dramatically makes sense, but that could rub some people the wrong way. And not everyone's going to be in love with the Notebook. But I think what she's Doing is extraordinary and should be rewarded. But Gayle could win next one. The Wiz gets completely shut out. Yeah, you know, I haven't seen it yet, but the word is not good on the Wiz, y'. All. It wasn't good out of town. It isn't good here. Did it sell on the road? Yes. Is it supposedly selling decently right now? Yes, it's. It's the Wiz. We love that score. The movie is bonkers and not good, but it is beloved by many. It has a built in audience. It had loud crowds all over the country. It's gonna have loud crowds here. But the word is not good on this show. I have a friend who is insistent that it will get a revival nomination because it will not look good to have four revival nominees and one of them not be the show that is primarily bipoc. Which is true. The Tonys do think about that a lot. They take that in consideration when they're nominating stuff because they want the diversity. But when you think about it, last year we had the 1776 from Diane Paulus Mamilton as I called it. And that got completely shut out despite the fact that it would have been a very, I don't say important, but noticeable moment of diversity in the lineup. But they chose not to because ultimately that revival blew. And from what I understand, the Wiz is also not great in quality. I think we're seeing for revival Merrilee, Cabaret and Tommy. Absolutely. And then the fourth slot is between Spamalot and Gutenberg. You know, Spamalot will have closed by the time the nominations come out, but it will have run longer and closer to the cutoff date. So it'll be fresher in nominators minds. Gutenberg though, was very successful and was very much a moment. And if Andrew and Josh can't get nominated for actor, then nominating the revival will be sort of their way of honoring them. So I don't know. That fourth slot is very much up in the air and we'll see what happens next. 1. I think BB Neuwirth should and will win for Cabaret. You can't say should. You haven't seen the performance yet. Unless you're the person who also said Gayle Rankine is going to win the Tony and you were at the invited dress. But you, you. I don't think you wrote this having seen Bebe yet. Bebe's absolutely getting nominated. She absolutely could win. I mean, you got think about who's eligible and featured actress. The alleys for Notebook. We've got Lindsay Mendez for Mary Lee, who will get nominated. Isn't going to win, though. Crystal Joy Brown for Marilee, who I don't think will get nominated. Keisha Lewis and Shoshana Bean for Hell's Kitchen, who both could get nominated. I would put in Keisha over Shoshana. Shoshana does lovely work. It's just that Keisha gets the better role and what else is there? I feel like there's another actress. Oh, Amber Aman for Lempicka and I think that's a very possible nomination. Yeah. No, I think Bebe is a very strong contender. Fraulein Schnauder is Fraulein Schneider. Schneider. Fraulein Schneider is a very big role in Cabaret. Always gets nominated, has won in the past, I think could win again. And it is. There is a narrative of Bebe back on Broadway in a Kanderna playing that role. And I will say reports from the first preview were very positive on her. So. Yeah, I don't know. I don't disagree with that. I can't say for sure until I see it, but I don't disagree. Next one. Eden Espinosa for Lempicka and Jonathan Groff for Merrily win the acting trophies. I think Groff Sauce is currently our front runner for leading actor. I would personally give it to Brian Darcy James, but he is our front runner. Word is that Eddie is truly fantastic in Cabaret. He did win the Olivier. We shall see. I think the goodwill towards Groff will go a long way. I. I think Eden will probably get nominated. I do not think she's going to win. Just the word on Lempicka. Even those who have liked it have not been overwhelmingly positive for Eden in that show. And it's not supposedly her fault so much as that it's a leading role like Franklin Shepard and Merilee, where, like the lead, the featured performances pop more. The lead's job is to sort of be the glue while the featured people pop. But, yeah, maybe she could. Next one. Merilee will receive more acting nominations than anyone is currently predicting. I'm talking five or six. Five or six. Okay, so by that count, we have Graffsas, we've got Lindsay, we've got Daniel. I think those are all Lux. Then you're also saying, I'm assuming Crystal Joy Brown, you're talking Katie Rose Clark, and I'm guessing you're also talking Reg Rogers. Okay. I mean, pop off, sis. I. I don't think Reg is getting nominated. I don't think Katie's getting nominated. I will give you crystal because Gussie has been nominated in the past. I do not think it will be Crystal. Not with as many possible candidates as there are. I think with as many shows as we have this season, even with things being kind of underwhelming, it's a really garbage look to give Merrilee that many acting nominations. It's because Merrily is not Hamilton. It is not the Producers. Yes, it's a big hit. It is not this national phenomenon. People want to believe that Merrily is this sensation. It's. It is incredibly successful. They should be so happy. It is a beautiful success story. This is not a musical that is like being nationally recognized right now. It is very much a New York City hit. And part of it being a hit is also the fact that it's Daniel Radcliffe in the show and Jonathan. If Merily gets six acting nominations, I'm going to kind of be furious. I'm going to throw my show. But of course, last time I said that, I said Sweeney Todd was for sound design and they won. So, you know, I guess I have to get rid of my shoes next up. No, I love how people. I literally said in my. In this link, I said just Tony. Predictions. I've now had two questions that have been personal, like, y' all fucking read the Instagram slide? Not much of a prediction. But is it possible to have six best musical nominees? Yes, it happened in 2022. We had Strange Loop 6, MJ, Mr. Saturday Night, Girl from the north country, and Paradise Square. We shouldn't have had six, but we did in the same way that we had six best actress and musical nominees in 2018. It comes down to tallies. If it's three or fewer votes between the bottom two candidates than the bottom, both of them get in. Which has happened. It's. I don't think it's going to happen this time. I think the only way that it could is just because there are so many shows and not enough that everyone feels strongly about. You know, two or three could get in just off of, you know, a little hairline push. But yeah, I don't know if it's going to be six. I don't think so. But no, we. To answer your question, yes, we absolutely could have six nominees. That is absolutely a possibility. Next up, Stereophonic is winning best score. Or if not, then it should. I can't tell you about should I see it in a week. But I do think it's going to get nominated. Could win. Don't think it will, but could. Next up, Groff and Plunkett for best Actor and Actress. Sarah Paulson and Jeremy Strong for best actor and actress in Play. Outsiders pulls a surprise win for musical play is Stereophonic. I do think Stereophonic will win Play again, not even having seen it, but just people are so pumped for that show and it got such rave reviews off Broadway. I think it's selling pretty well, actually. They added an earlier preview to accommodate public demand. People are really excited for it. So I think that's in its favor. I think Outsiders right now could absolutely be a surprise musical winner. You know, I don't. There's nothing currently playing right now that I'm going. You're the obvious winner. Everyone's talking about Illinois. That could happen. I think Illinois will be a nominee. I don't think it's going to win just because it's going to be a limited run and it's mostly a dance piece, but it will get nominated. I love the idea of Groff and Plunkett. That's a wonderful pairing. And yeah, I think Sarah Paulson and Jeremy Strong are definitely our front runners right now. We still have Mother Play and Mary Jane about to start performances. Mary Jane is a harrowing play that Rachel McAdams will be doing, and if she's good. No, she could. And Jeremy Strong definitely frontrunner. I think definitely much could win. The only real up in the air right now is Uncle Vanya. We'll see what happens with Steve Carell with Uncle Vanya, but I think it's Jeremy's to lose. I don't disagree with that. Take another person. Stereophonic takes best score. If this is how everyone's feeling on their own, then, yeah, I guess Stereophonic could just fucking take it. I love this. Best musical, the Outsiders. That's our second Outsiders so far. We've got one for Water for Elephants and two for the Outsiders. Outsiders could be taking it based on seeing the Wiz preview. Not a single nomination. It is rough stuff to be the Wiz right now. Y' all are coming for it. Here Lies Love gets shut out except for Conrad, Rick, Amora and lighting. Not even set design. I think it's gonna get a set design nomination. You can't pull what they pulled and not get nominated for that. I don't know what else to. What would overlap it for set design in that respect. I do think Heraly's Love is going to do worse than I originally predicted with Dylan just as more shows are coming out. And while not all of them are as good as I want them to be, they're not total duds. And that's sort of enough to eke out Heroize love. I would love it if they got a score nomination. Don't think it's going to happen now at this point, sadly. But I know I. And I don't. I'm not convinced Conrad's gonna get nominated for featured anyway. It's. It's, you know, I think we've got Daniel as a lock. I think we've got Steven Skybell again, not even having seen him, but I think he's a lock for Cabaret. Paula Alexander, Nolan Locke. And then we got two more slots. And there are people who are claiming here that Reg Rogers will get nominated for Merrily. We have people who are convinced one of the two featured actors and Back to the Future will get in. Either Roger Bart or, I think Hugh Coles is his name, the one who plays the dad. Because I think he got Olivier nominated in the West End. I mean, there's also, you know, someone from Outsiders could get in. Someone from Notebook could get in. So I guess someone from Tommy could get in. If. If Ali gets put in featured, he could get in. My friend who is, you know, rooting for Water for Elephants, he's convinced that Stan Brown will be nominated over Paula Alexander Nolan. Stan Brown does a lovely job as Camel, but I think it's Paul's nomination. I would like to see her Lies Love get nominated for lighting and set design. I would like them to get like a minimum of three. I would like them to get three. Next one. Could Kara Young finally take the win on what is almost certainly her third consecutive supporting actress in a play nomination? I know it's hard when with the show closed, but I want it to be her time. Her performance was spectacular. Kara Young was fantastic and probably victorious. She's getting nominated. I think that's. I think it's hard to deny that she could win. I think what makes it difficult, it's not just that the show has closed, but the show closed and it's a comedic performance. If it were like, you know, if Carrie Young were doing Madea and it closed in February, they would probably be more inclined to vote for her right now. I would say she's getting in. I would probably put in Natalie Gold for Appropriate. We'll see what the. The big question is Uncle Vanya. You know, if Uncle Vanya slaps. And I really wanted to, but if it slaps, you know, we've got Anika and Allison and Jane. That's Anika Noni Rose, Alison Pill and Jane Haddishell. For all you uncultured fucks. We got them as possibilities. I don't know what the deal with Mother Play is yet. Celia Keenan Bolder could get in there. I also think, I mean, having not seen Stereophonic yet, but it's possible. Stereophonic could get a featured actress nomination. I can't. That play's got to get at least one performance nominated. Just, you know, they just got to. But I mean, I think the sad thing is all the actresses from Jaja's African hairbraiding will be shut out. And they were all just so fantastic. Kara could win. I don't think it's a. Right now I have her as my number one with Natalie Gold at number two and then the actress who plays Jeremy Strong's daughter in Enemy, the People at number three. Those are my top three. We have to wait for Vanya and Stereophonic and Mother Play to happen before you make any final calls. But yeah, I don't. It's, it's less of the consecutiveness. I don't think people care about that so much. If they did, you know, Kelly would have won earlier, but she, she, she's getting nominated. Rest assured that that's happening. Next one. I'm worried Gatsby may end up being the gen pop crowd pleaser hit that will sweep the win with no critics. With no critics. Smash present in new musicals. Oh, so what you're saying is that with no new musical that has an overall critical consensus of positivity, because Gatsby is like a Gen Z pop crowd pleaser, it will win. Well, no, first of all, as we've seen in the past, sometimes nominators will work very hard to not nominate stuff because they're afraid it could win. As we saw with aida in the 90s. You saw that with Big. You know, as we've also seen, Gen Z has no influence over the Tonys. The one exception, I would say, is 6. But 6 got good reviews and 6 sold well and I think 6 is actually pretty good. But Gatsby, first of all, it's not even really Gen Z. It's. It's like Gen Z Tryhard from like the one song that I saw though, like the song about the party. It's not winning, it's not going to sweep. I think they will be lucky to get a musical nomination. I think they're going to get a lot of technical nominations, but they're not going to win. Also, I don't think Gatsby's selling very well right now. It's such a Large theater. It's a 1700 seat theater. And, you know, I think we're going to see pretty full capacity for the first two to three weeks of previews just through papering and discounted tickets. And then you're gonna see it start to empty out, especially once, like the early fangirls see it and leave. Because I don't care how much you love Jeremy Jordan, you can't afford to see Gatsby four times a week and take 50 of your friends. You just can't. And you need people to want to see it, and a lot of people don't want to see it. Next up, Amber Aman, the lone winner for Lempicka. I think that's the person who DM'd me as well. Next one, Outsiders is shaping up into the little show that could. If it's not theirs to win, it is. No books to lose. Yeah, I do. I still think it's between those two right now. We'll see what ends up happening. But no, Outsiders is definitely building momentum as a popular show. It's quality aside, it's also just like the newsies of it all. It's a bunch of pretty, pretty sexy boys on stage and they get wet. Next up, Shoshana Bean for supporting actress and Malia Joy Moon for leading actress. That's a question mark, not a prediction. Shoshana is not winning supporting. I would be pleasantly surprised if she gets nominated. I think she could, but I Again, it's Keisha for me that is the featured actress in that musical. That takes it away. I think Malia is absolutely getting nominated. She's very charming, her voice is gorgeous, and she's on stage almost the entire time. I just think that show is bad. I think that script is bad. And I have a hard time finding anyone winning for that. It's just such a. I think that show is just a giant nothing. I think Malia is getting nominated and not winning. I think Shoshanna could get nominated. Not sure, though. Next up, not so much bold, but more of a wish list. I would like a featured nomination for Julie Benko and a best actress nomination for Ariel Jacobs and an. And a win for Eden with a Green Heart. Okay, Wicked. I hate to break it to you. Julie's not getting nominated. I think Harmony's two best bets are a nomination for score and choreography. At this point, I don't think it's getting a score nomination. They could still get a choreography nomination. Right now, I think choreography. We've got locks with the Outsiders and water for elephants and Then again, not even having seen Illinois, I think that's a Locke probably going to win. I could see Camille Brown getting nominated for Hell's Kitchen. I think the show is way over choreographed. But again, the Tonys, like most, not best. And then Lauren Lotaro has both, I think Heart of Rock and Roll and Tommy. She could get nominated for either. Having not seen Heart of Rock and Roll yet, I guess I would have to say Tommy. Although I probably would give Warren Carlyle the nomination for Harmony over that. Which means, you know, once upon it one more time, a show that I detested but thought the choreography was, you know, at least Crisp is not getting nominated, which I think most people expected. But that also means no nomination for Gatsby. And I haven't. I haven't even seen Gatsby yet. But, you know, that's a big dance heavy show. So. Yeah, no, I, I think Julie's not getting nominated. Ariel could. As I said, actress right now is a weird category. Kelly, Gale, Malia, Eden, Marianne. I feel like that's our five, probably. Izzy, Mikayla could get in there accidentally. Not accidentally, but like, you know, surprisingly. Because I don't think anyone expects that role to come through as much as it does. I don't know. I don't know about Eden. Next up, Stereophonic for play. Agree. Marianne Plunkett for lead actress? Sure hope so. Brian Darcy James for lead actor? I wish, but I don't think that's happening. Eli Gelb for leading actor in a play for Stereophonic. Is there a real lead in that show? I. I'm looking forward. I don't know anything. I really know nothing about it other than it's three hours, the music is good, and it's supposed to be very good, but that would be nice. Best musical is Notebook. Jessica Lange is going to win leading actress in a play for Mother Play. You know, leading actress in a play is actually going to be a fun category because it's going to be Lange, Rachel McAdams, Sarah Paulson. And then I wonder if it's Betsy Item for Prayer for the French Republic or Amy Ryan for Doubt. I didn't like Amy Ryan in Doubt all that much. I did not like this production of Doubt. But, you know, it's Sister Aloysius. She. She tends to get nominated even if the performance is mediocre. I don't know. We don't know anything about Mother Play. Although I do love that Jessica Lange is in the play called Mother Play, because you just know the gays are gonna go all over Instagram and Be like mother. She's playing. Next up, Beth Leavel gets Tony nominated again. This is wishful thinking, but a girl can dream. From what I understand, Beth Leavel has almost nothing to do in Lempicka. She's got 10 minutes of stage time and one big number. I think she's weirdly given the 11 o' clock number for some godforsaken reason. I'll find out more in two days. But yeah, no, I don't think she's getting nominated. I think the role is too small. Just from everything I've heard, that's another personal one. Next up, again, y' all don't read the fucking Instagram. Next up, Jonathan Groff takes best actor over Eddie Redmayne. Also, that the who's Tommy gets three. Revival, lighting and set. Yeah, I don't. I can't fault you with those three. For Tommy, I. Set is. Is interesting. I wonder what's gonna happen with set design just in general for musicals, because it. It just can go so many ways. But, you know, I think those are the. I think those are three very strong possibilities for Tommy. Revival is a lock. And then lighting and set, very, very strong contenders. But yeah, no, I at the moment, having not seen Eddie Redmayne, I still think Groff is gonna win. Water for Elephants gets shut out. Besides Paul Alexander Nolan with a awkward emoji face, I think it's just. I don't think that's gonna happen. I can't tell you how well Water. Water for Elephants is gonna do. Nomination wise. I don't think it's gonna be like a New York, New Yorker Paradise Square situation where it gets like 11, but I think it's gonna do better than completely shut out. Also, like, how ironic would it be that Nolan gets his first nomination for a show and it's the show that gets shut out and not him? He better fucking get nominated or I swear to God. All right, next up, best score will probably be either Water for Elephants or the Notebook. As of right now. Isn't it fun how these questions come back and forth? So, like, we just got a. It's gonna get shut out and now it's like it's gonna win score. Best book will probably be the Notebook for now. Revival of a play for Appropriate. It will win any category it's in. I don't know about that. I think appropriate. I think Appropriate's two best shots right now are revival and actress. I think. I mean, I loved Appropriate. I loved Enemy of the People more. I think those are our two contenders right now we'll see what happens with Uncle Vanya. I feel like Uncle Vanya is going to be very good, but not so great that it's going to overtake everything or like shake it up too much. But appropriate for any category it's in. I mean, that's a. That's a hot take. Book for Notebook. Maybe. Maybe I would give it book over Outsiders. Yeah, yeah, I think that could happen. And then score Water for Elephants or the Notebook. I would give that to the Notebook over Water for Elephants and I would give it to the Outsiders over Notebook. I'm expecting a deserved sweep for Merrily. The fact that it took 40 plus years to figure it out speaks for its endurance. Clever, smart book and lyrics. Just needed a director to find its heart. And here's the thing. I don't think they figured it out. I think they've made it work better than anyone ever has. I still don't think it totally works and I don't think it's going to sweep. I think Merrily closing in July and it's not like a company situation where they were open ended and then announced they were closing in July. Like everyone knows Merrily is closing in July. So I can't imagine it sweeping. I think at best Merrily could win five. And I'm just like talking, you know, if we're being bold here and being super early with everything, I could see Merily winning revival, actor, supporting actor, director and orchestrations. It's not getting nominated for set. That set is ugly. I would nominate it for costumes, though. I don't think it'll win. I would nominate it for lighting, but it won't win. I think Lindsey will get nominated. I don't think she's gonna win. I could nominate them for sound, but again, Outsiders sound is so much more impressive. I don't know, it's. It is really difficult to sweep when your show is closing so soon after the Tonys and everyone knows it. I don't know. I think maybe I am underestimating the power of Merrily. But I also feel like Merrilee has been walking around this season so confident and it's Tony chances and so cocky with its financial success. And the producers have been very shady in regards to certain things. I don't know. I just. If I liked that revival more and I'm. I may be seeing it again soon to sort of get a second opinion about it. But if I thought that revival was fantastic, I would maybe be more up on that. But I just, I think it only works sometimes and doesn't work other times. And part of it is just like, I don't think the book is good. I don't. I think it's got continuity errors up the ass. The score is fantastic. But half of that score for me is not nearly as impactful in context as it is when I listen to it alone in my room. But that is just me. And I also said there is at least one performance in that show that I think is objectively bad. Alison Luff gets a Tony nom for Tommy. Well, she could. Marsha Mitzman got nominated in 93 featured actress. For all of the candidates that it has. It just means, you know, people could get in there. I don't think I would personally nominate Alison. I don't think she's making that huge of an impression in Tommy. Best musical suffs, Maybe. Maybe there's been some very positive word from early previews. I see it in a week. That's another one where, you know, you could get a handful of featured actress nominations in there. You know, that's. Again, I guess the only way I could see merrily sweeping is if all of the other musical contenders are all just underwhelming enough that they get a bunch of nominations, but no one feels compelled to vote for them for anything. Sort of like Jack of All Trades, Master of None. But I don't know. I don't know. The word on subs hasn't been that they fixed it to the extent that it's incredible. It's. The word has mostly been that they've improved it. But again, I see it in a week, so I'll let you know then. Billy Eugene Jones, Tony nom for Purely Victorious. I kind of believe this is someone who knows me because I adore that man. I think he's so talented. I also think he's sexy. As I'll get out, he's not getting nominated. I really don't think so. Good as he was in that show. I don't think it's happening. Next up, how to Dance Ohio gets completely stunned up from nominations. Yeah, I agree with that. I don't think that's getting in anywhere. Billy, I beg to differ with you. How do you mean? You're the top. Yeah. You're an arrow collar. You're the top. You're a Coolidge dollar. You're the nimble thread of the feet. Next up, the Outsiders is my best musical winner right now. Yeah, I mean, mine too. So here we go. Heraly's Love gets a surprise best musical and score nomination. I think of Those two. It is most possible to get in for score again. At this moment, I sadly don't think either is very likely. Okay, so next up we have someone wrote. Heya. I advocate for nominations for Lindsay Mendes. I, Ali Lewis Borski and Liam Pierce likely other worthy contenders, but these all stand out. Liam in how to Dance in Ohio is interesting. We don't know yet where he's eligible. I'm hoping that the Tony community announces soon because they have to meet two more times before the deadline and they've got a lot of shows. They got to talk about eligibility. We don't. We still don't know if Chip Zion is in lead or featured. I'm pretty sure he's going into lead, but you never know. But they gotta talk about harmony, how to dance in Ohio. Notebook, Outsiders, Water for Elephants, Days of Wine and Roses. Tommy. I don't think they've done spam a lot yet. They haven't done appropriate. They haven't announced for appropriate or anything like that. So they got a lot of shit to fucking catch up on. So with Liam, I don't know if he goes into lead or featured. I would put him into featured. That said, you know, Liam's got a beautiful voice. He is quite charming. There is nothing in how to Dance in Ohio that I would nominate. I just thought that show was very under baked with beautiful intentions and historically will always matter. But I counter that with imagine how much bigger of a historical impact that show could have had if it were better. I just didn't think it was good. And I. And again, there's too much competition. I don't think he's getting nominated. Lindsay, you've got nothing to advocate for. She's getting nominated. You know, it's just happening. Ali maybe loved his singing. I just wish that there was more heat behind the performance. Next up, here Lies Love gets best musical nomination. I love the optimism, guys. Let's hope. Multiple acting nominations for Illinois. Have you seen it yet? Do you know that for sure or are you just speculating? The word is that there are two actors in the show who are the most featured dance wise. It's like their story for the most part. And so that could happen for them, but I don't know. I've had other friends who saw it, who loved it, who loved Illinois at the Armory and have friends in the show and they're like, I don't know, like, I think they're winning choreography and that's it. Like, I think they're gonna get nominated for that and nothing else. And win that. I was like, okay, but. And again, these are people who loved Illinois. Someone said, unsure who? Sorry. They literally wrote this. Multiple acting nominations for Illinois. Unsure who, as I haven't seen, but just feels possible due to the reviews and hype. Yeah, no, absolutely. But that's. You know, this is why seeing something helps, because hype is one thing. You got to see it for yourself. So you can determine. Because a lot of people. I'll put it this way. Last year, there was, like, this whole to do about Philippa Soo not getting nominated for either into the woods or Camelot. And a lot of it were people who hadn't seen either show. Some had seen one or the other. Like, how could she not get nominated for either? I was like, I don't know. Did you see them? Because, like, I thought she was fine in into the woods, but I thought that Julia Lester was the bigger standout in that category, and I thought everyone else in featured actress was absolutely correct for nominations. And then Camelot, Like, I didn't think she was very good in Camelot, but I thought no one was really very good in Camelot. I thought that Aaron Sorkin's script blew. So, yeah, it helps to see it, but, no, I think they could get a nomination. I've heard good things. Next up, Appropriate wins five Tonys for revival, actress, director, set and sound. Gets three more nominations for lighting. Natalie Gold and Corey Stoll. I goddamn hope Natalie Gold gets nominated. That bitch was so good. I don't know. We'll see what happens. I mean, I know that what has been very prominent in reviews for Appropriate have been a. The edits that the playwright has made since the last New York production. But also, people have been very up on Lila's direction of the show. They have said, like, what she does with it really makes it incredible. I wonder if Lila could get double nominated for this and for Uncle Vanya. If Vanya is great. Of course, if Vanya isn't very good, then she really just has to put all of her eggs in the appropriate basket. It's always hard. It's always hard. I think. Director and set tricky. There are a lot of heavily designed shows, although what they do with that set at the end is pretty incredible. Would I give them sound? I don't know. I think Stereophonics probably gonna win sound just because of the concept of that show. And I hope Corey still gets nominated. Illinois takes best musical. So far, guys, we've had one Water for Elephants, one Notebook, two Outsiders, one Illinois, one Suffs, and one Person Fearful that it's going to be great. Gatsby not boldly predicting, just fearful. Another Suffs. Someone just wrote Suffs is the big winner. Maybe, Maybe. I don't know. I know one of the producers of Suffs and I went to stage door with Shayna. Shayna is such a talented, kind person. At least she was when I knew her. I don't know what she's become in the last 15 years. Maybe she's become a giant bitch. But no, she's very talented, she's very lovely and I'm so glad that she's doing this on Broadway. I hope that it works out. Hell's Kitchen does not last past the Tonys is what somebody wrote. That's not really a Tony nomination or award prediction, but it is Tony related. Yeah. Hell's Kitchen, from what I understand is not selling terribly well. They really overestimated their sold out run at the public. You know, as I said this before, the Newman at the public, it's 299 seats. You're already selling out half of your performances because of subscribers. You add the fact that it's a new musical, that's another like probably 50 seats per show that you're just automatically selling. And then you add Alicia Keys and that's like another 100 right there. And then you add Shoshana Bean and Brendan, Victor Dix and Michael Greif. Like that's another couple hundred throughout the entire run. So that was just. That was always going to sell out. You know, the fucking Joan of Arc musical. Sold out. Fortress of Solitude sold out. Musicals at the Newman tend to sell out before they even start. The reviews for Hell's Kitchen were middling. I thought it wasn't terribly good. I think that Hell's Kitchen is going to be similar to New York, New York in the sense that, you know, they will go off the buzz of it's a feel good musical, it's a love letter to the city. They end with the anthem to your city that you love. So you're on your feet. But enough people will walk out and be like, that book is bad. And no one's talking about how everyone was sort of sitting on their hands for two hours until that final song. And that will be to their detriment and they will not win musical. I don't think, I don't think they're going to get nominated. I mean they could. Anything can happen. But you know, it's not, it's, it's. I don't think it's gonna be a big enough Hit. It needs to be a big. It needs to be a big, tittied Mamma Mia Hit to get nominated and then to win. And they're not. That's not really where their momentum is right now, and they don't have a lot of time before nominations to build it. Yeah, I don't. I don't know. I. My hot take is Hell's Kitchen. Lasts to the end of the year, but it might just end in the summer. Tbd. Someone writes. Here Lies Love will be nearly shut out. There's a fan base for the show that thinks that it was well received. It wasn't. No, Here Lies Love was well received. Critically, it was. The only mixed review it got was from Jesse Green. And my review for it was kind of mixed, but it did get good reviews and it was critically praised. Downtown. It was a huge hit off Broadway. It was not a hit on Broadway. That is true. I think I would like Her Lies Love to get nominated just because I thought it was better than most of the things that are running right now. That's all. Not because I'm like, you know, it's this underappreciated gem. I liked it. I didn't love it. I would like them to get at least technical nominations that would just. I think they deserve that at the very least. But no, I don't. I was hoping it would get more nominations than I think it will. That's. That's the truth. Someone once said to me that they had a friend who was like, oh, Arielle Jacobs is winning. I went, okay, sure, Jan. Next up, Suffs won't be in Best Musical. So you've got two people who thinks that Suffs is gonna win, and then one person who says it's not even getting nominated again, guys, this is what's making the season so fun, because there's no sure things. Enemy of the People will be left out of best revival. Why do you think it's going to be Doubt instead? Unless they go for three nominees and then it's Pearly, Vanya and Appropriate. But I think. I think Enemy of the People and Appropriate are the two absolute locks right now for Revival. That's what I think. It also helps that I thought Enemy of the People so far was my favorite thing this year. Illinois's coming in last minute will be a negative to the show. It wasn't a negative to 9 in 1982. I think nominators will be frustrated that they had to rush to see it for nominations. But again, with no clear front runner, with not enough Shows to really get behind. If it's good, they'll be happy. I think it'll be a negative in terms of maybe they won't. I don't think Illinois is going to get like double digit nominations, but I think it'll, I don't think it'll hurt them too bad. Hasn't hurt shows in the past. Victoria Pedretti, best featured actress nomination. I fucking hope so. I thought she was just terrific in Enemy of the People. That's who that is, right? Victoria Petretti, she played Jeremy Strong's daughter in An Enemy. An Enemy of the People, I'm pretty sure. Yeah, that's who that is. Yeah, that's who she played. Petra. I thought she was fantastic. I thought she was charming and lovely and heartbreaking. And I would like for her, Jeremy and Michael Imperioli to all get nominated. And I think they all could. I really, I really hope so. Mother play will be a letdown. Mother play will either be a letdown or absolutely sweep one or the other. There's no in between. It's just, it's either going to be garbage mama or it's going to be mother Garbage Mama or mother. That's what Mother Play is gonna be fun. That is, that's bold. I asked her bold and you're giving me bold. Next up, Cabaret wins. Revival over Merrily. I've spent the season thinking it was Merrylee's to lose, but after having seen Cabaret. Yes. The dress rehearsal. Cabaret might take it. It's the best production of a musical this season, in my opinion. Okay. Ooh. Someone in my feed has seen the dress rehearsal of Cabaret. I think I know who this might be too, because I, I know two people who are at the dress rehearsal. You know that Cabaret did sweep the Oliviers. The London famously has a much different taste than we do. So, you know, we'll see. But I mean, I, I, I want Cabaret to be fantastic because I need something to challenge Merrily. I really don't love the narrative of like, Merrily is the big old elephant with water in the season, but that's fun. I love that someone has seen the dress rehearsal is like, I think Merily's gonna take that. Cabaret is gonna take it. That's hot. It's really fucking sexy. Thank you. Next up, somebody writes Marianne wins. Marianne Plunkett with an exclamation point. And someone wrote, not a good prediction, just a fact. Okay, guys, we have, we've got work to do. We've got two narratives we need to start spinning right now. That Marianne Plunkett deserves to win that. She needs to win best actress in a musical. And that Paul Alexander Nolan needs to get that fucking Tony nomination yesterday. We have work to do. We've got work set out for us. The next. Right. Bebe Neuorth will win featured actress. Jonathan Groff wins actor, and Daniel Radcliffe wins featured actor. Um, Yeah, I don't really. There's nothing here that I hate. I gotta. I gotta wait. Someone writes Suffs and Hell's Kitchen are going to get zero nominations. I think Hell's Kitchen will at least get a choreography nomination again. There's just so much choreo. I would like Keisha Lewis to get in there, but DBD again, Suffs. I see. In a week. I feel like this whole. That one question about Mother Play. Sorry, that one bold prediction on Mother Play that it's like it's either getting absolutely nothing, it's going to be trash, or it's going to be incredible and sweep. That's sort of the whiplash I've been getting from all of these. It's like, Suffs is winning. Suffs is getting nothing. Hell's Kitchen won't last past the Tonys. Hell's Kitchen is going to win best musical. I'm like, Water for Elephants will get nothing. But Paul Alexander Nolan, Water for Elephants is going to win score and musical. God, everything's funny. And then somebody else just wrote. Despite what everyone's been saying for the last six months, Merrily isn't going to win revival. It's going to be Cabaret. It could happen. Listen, y', all remember last year? Remember last year when everyone said, into the woods has it in the bag? Sutton Lee Seymour, friend of the pod, was on the podcast and said, into the woods was the darling of the season. Everybody loved it. It was such a thing. The narrative of, like, oh, my God, everyone loves into the woods again. It's beautiful, it's perfect, and it's such a hot ticket. Everyone's back in the theater, loving Sondheim. It's gonna win. And I said, I don't know. It's closed. And they go, but we got Sweeney Todd. And Sweeney Todd's sort of underwhelming. So we'll vote for into the Woods. It's the Sondheim vote. I'm like, I don't know. Parade is running. And Parade is brand spanking new. And Parade is running in hot. It may not be perfect, but it's running in hot. And then what the fuck happened? Could happen again, is all I'm saying. Sometimes having the narrative of being the front runner all year long can help you. Like a Hamilton, a hairspray. Sometimes being, you know, considered so prominent for so long, people get tired of you and then something fun and hot comes in that's just as good, or maybe not quite just as good, but almost as good. And people go for that instead. Someone writes. The Notebook will get the most nominations of all the original musicals this season. One closed show will make it into musical over Suff's Orlempicka. I've also started wanting to call Lempicka Lempaika or Lempdica Limp Dicka. If I, if I like Lempicka, I'll call it Lempicka. If I don't like Lempicka, I'm gonna call it Lempdicka. And no one, no one can say anything other than that. Fun fact. This has nothing to do with anything, but the other night I was in with my mom and we watched Bridget Jones's Diary. She hadn't seen it in years and I watch it probably once a year and there was a line I completely forgot about when. If you don't know the movie Bridget Jones, played by Renee Zellweger, her mother leaves her father for a while. She ends up coming back to him, but she leaves him for a while and starts working with and sleeping with the host of what's essentially a British QVC show. It's a very effeminate, metrosexual man. And she's on the set. Things are starting to go sour with him. His name's Julian and he's a little bit of a shit. And she's on the set calling Bridget to sort of like bemoan her situation because he's become such a shit. And you see Julian in the back in his, you know, talent chair, you know, like a director chair. And he's getting his manicure done by someone on set and she, I guess, like goes too deep into the bed or something and he shouts, ow. Watch it, you ham fisted cunt. I turned to my mom and I said, if you don't start calling me that every day from now on, I will stop loving you. And she was very upset by that because she was like, I want you to keep loving me, but I don't want you, I don't want to call you that. I said, well, then I guess we have a dilemma here. So I've gotten her to call me that like three times. And she doesn't like doing it, but I'm getting her more used to it. This morning she called me a ham fisted cunt. I said, good morning, sugar tits. And she said, good morning, ham fisted cunt. And I said, I love our relationship. And so that's, that's the kind of person I am. This is the kind of person who sees Lempicka, doesn't like it and starts calling it Lempdicka. God, I just, I am so lonely, y'. All. I'm just a broken individual. Just know that I'm broken. It's fine. Everything's great. Everything's normal. I can see the Notebook getting a lot of nominations, I really do. There's a lot of potential for acting nominations for this show, whether you know, you liked it or not. It's why I just have a hard time believing Marilee is getting six acting nominations, let alone five or four. I just think there are too many possibilities. I think we're gonna see nominations for sups and Lempicka in areas, if not always in musical. Yeah, no, I think, I think, I think at the moment our two biggest contenders for nominations for original musicals are Notebook and Outsiders. But Notebook has more performance possibilities, so that helps them. Another person writes, the Outsiders will win best musical. It's. I mean, it's got a lot of support right now, y'. All. Someone writes, I don't think Lempicka is going to win at this year's Tonys. So you think Lempicka is going to be Lempdica? No, I don't think Lempicka is winning at the Tonys. My question with Lempicka is do they get their shit together enough by the time they open that they get nominated for stuff? That's my question. I don't think they're winning. But are nominations a possibility? Next up, final two. Someone writes best featured actress in a musical. Keisha Lewis, best choreography. Camille A brown beating Illinois. That is a hot take though. I think Outsiders could upset for choreography. I mean, that choreography for Outsiders is fucking hot. Best lighting, Outsiders. I do think Camille is getting nominated. And Camille is actually one of my favorite working choreographers right now. And sometimes she does stuff in Hell's Kitchen that's gorgeous. And sometimes she does stuff that made me actually laugh out loud. In the 299 seat Newman Theater on a Sunday matinee. It was noticeable. Particularly there's a funeral moment that no one should be dancing in. And then there's dancing and you're like, ooh, ma', am, this is a Wendy's Keisha Lewis. I want her nominated. She is the best performance in that show. She brings laser focus to it. And when she exits, there's a palpable presence missing. Just like anytime she exits the stage in that show, she comes on for one scene and then leaves and doesn't come back for like another 30 minutes and then comes back and you're like, I miss you, Keisha Lewis. Please don't go away. I don't think she's winning, but I would love for her to get nominated. But this person really does think that Hell's Kitchen is a. It's a force to be reckoned with. And outsiders for lighting. Yeah, no, the lighting for that show was really fucking good. This one isn't even. I came to the last one. Last one wasn't a question. It just says. And I'll say it out loud because thank you. But also, this wasn't the assignment. You're so attractive. Thank you. I'm not, but that's nice to hear. I've got a face for radio and a voice for ballet. That is what is on the top of my resume. Alright, those are your predictions, y'. All. Thank you very much. This has been delightful. Check us back next week when I cover Lempicka and Heart of Rock and Roll. And I'm gonna try. I have two people who have been softly committed to coming on next week and I think both are probably gonna cancel, but we'll see. Or one just cancels because they're both. Both of them are like, I want to. I think I can, but I have something I gotta schedule around it. So we'll see what happens. Thank you so much for listening. If you like the podcast, please give us a nice 5 star rating or a review. We actually got quite a few reviews recently and I want to apologize to my out of the country listeners who wrote reviews that I didn't read. I only just found them because Apple podcasts, if you are in the United Kingdom or Canada or wherever that's not the United States, I don't get to see it on the app. I have to find it on an aggregate website, which has ended up what happened. So I have a few that I actually have to read and I'm going to do them in quick order. Yes. All right, so we're going to kick off the Light in the Piazza Overture music now. The best deep dive. Truly the funniest and most informative podcast on theater out there. Wonderful. Thank you so much. Five stars. Next up, five stars. So much fun and so insightful. I happen to stumble on this podcast and it is clear the host and his guests love and respect musical theater. It is thanks to this podcast that I watched Diana the Musical and if you haven't listened to that episode, do so then watch the Netflix movie Deep dives into your favorite musicals laced with laugh out loud moments and genuine insight. A standing ovation from me. Thank you so much. Also from United Kingdom them next up, five stars. Come for the insight, Stay for the digressions. Digressions. Digressions. Matt brings wit, knowledge and a good dose of sassiness to his discussions. He veers madly off in all directions, but it's always entertaining. I do and it is. I thought I knew a lot but Matt shames me with every episode. Keep em coming. I will. And then the last one. Five stars. My favorite theater podcast. I can't believe it's taken me until an episode about the inheritance in which I vehemently disagree with Matt and guest Robbie Rizzel on several of their opinions to five star this baby. It goes to show that intelligently packaged commentary can still be brilliant, even when I disagree with some of it. Koplik's intelligence is extraordinary and it's refreshing to hear in depth conversations about theater in the same humorous way. After theater dinner, conversations occur. Keep on keeping on. As you heard, my package is quite intelligent. Thank you so much guys. That was wonderful. You make my day. Please keep the the ratings and the reviews coming. You are all so good at it and it just it. It makes my life. And if we reach over 200 ratings by Tony time, I will finally post one of my performance videos for you guys on Instagram. You some of you keep asking and it's not really what my Instagram is for. My Instagram is for different content. And then I'll post these challenges and we always like almost make the requirement for the challenge for me to post it and then we never do. And then people ask again for me to post performance videos and I'm like vicious cycle. Either I need more people to meet the requirement of the challenges I post or I need people to stop asking about the performances. So if you do want me to post, I'll post Life at the Party. If you want to post me singing Life at the Party at the Off Kilter Cabaret for the Gay Men's Chorus, then make sure that we get to over 200 ratings by the end of April when the Tony nominations come in. Speaking of the New York City Gay Men's Chorus, if you are in the city at the end of April, they are having a concert. We are having a concert. I'm in it. It's called bubblegum pop, Covering pop music from the 90s through the early 2000s. We've got Mandy Moore's Candy. We've got a Britney Spears mashup. We've got Christina Aguilera. We've got nsync. It's going to be at the Skirball center in nyu. The actual dates I can't remember off the top of my head, but I will post them in the bio. You will also see a link for tickets in the bio for this episode. And you will see a discount code for said tickets in the bio for this episode. That is it for now. Join us next week. Again, we will talk about whether it's gonna be lempicka or lempdica as well as the heart of rock and roll. Or is it the asshole of rock and roll? I don't know. I couldn't think of anything. And that's it for now. Let's think of a diva. You know what? Because we've talked about her so much, let's do Ms. Keisha Lewis. Keisha Lewis take us away until next week. Thanks so much, Gu. My people friend Let her friend I'll be by your side that's what mama's worth to give her to the earth and whatever you need Mama will.