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Grace and Matt’s 2025 theatre predictions
00:20:21
Any and all feedback is appreciated:Grace Aki: grace@broadwayradio.com | @ItsGraceAkiMatt Tamanini: matt@broadwayradio.com | @BWWMatt Patreon: BroadwayRadiohttps://www.patreon.com/broadwayradio For a transcript of this episode,
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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. This is Matt from Broadway Radio. I'm joined by Grace. Grace, you are a Southerner. So did you have the traditional Southern. What is it? Collard greens? And what else that you people from below the Mason Dixon line think you have to do on New Year's Day? What is all of that?
- [00:27]
B
Yes, so it's, it's, it's black eyed peas and collard greens and it's, it's like that whole, it's like an Irish tradition thing of like the corned beef and cabbage and stuff like that. Like, it's a similar kind of like if you eat, it's like for good fortune. And, and I know that there's a whole lore behind it, but yes, there's, there's that. I usually do do that when, when I'm with my mom. I'm surprised that you knew about that. So. Very good. I don't consider Florida, the South. I think South Florida as its own place. But. Yes, yes, very true.
- [00:57]
A
Very, very true. We are here today because we're going to make predictions about the theatrical world in 2025. We are going to be a little bit all over the place. Grace, as always, you shy away from doing anything awards related because of your day job. I'm going to pick up that mantle and do some awards predictions, but we also have some things from different places in the theatrical world. So Grace, why don't you hit me with one of yours off the bat?
- [01:27]
B
So my first prediction is the fact that like, we are going to be seeing a lot more one to one off Broadway transfers than we have in the past couple of years. I think we're back on that playing field. I'm looking at shows that are happening at the Lucille Lortel and all those things. Normally, I would say the past year and a half, two years, I would just go, you know what, it's great that they, you know, kind of like got in and got out. They were not intending to move to Broadway. I think that we're going to have a lot more of the opposite again where people said, hey, we're doing this right before we go to Broadway. Just kind of like test the waters and make sure that it's selling super well. And I just, I feel like we're back on that track. But I could be very, very wrong. But I just feel like with the dead outlaw of it all, there's going to be a resurgence of people saying, this is the track for us. We cannot afford to go out of town. The regional theaters are not doing amazing. And I think that that's where we're going to move to.
- [02:25]
A
Do you think that this will be more so a byproduct of commercial theaters like you were talking about with like the Lucille Lortel, because we've seen a bunch of really starry things happen there, or do you think it's going to be through more nonprofits like the public and the signature, you know, whoever, moving things to Broadway? Because we've seen both. But do you think it's going to be more one or the other? A little bit of both. How do you anticipate that happening?
- [02:51]
B
Yeah, I think it's more of the commercial, like I do. I do think it's more of the commercial because we already have that nonprofit pipeline of like, hey, this is just what we're doing for the season. Like, I'm not seeing a lot of, hey, we're taking this show from, from this nonprofit. I mean, the public kind of always has that. So I kind of put it in a separate category, to be frank. But. But yeah, so I think that it's going to be more in the commercial space for sure. Like even Rest in Peace, the Connolly. But like, things like that, you know, where, you know, they might have been doing that before.
- [03:22]
A
Yeah. And it's interesting because Manhattan Theater Club had. Was it. Was it three of the four or four of the five best play nominees this past year, and they were all shows that they had originally done off Broadway or originally done off Broadway and then moved to Broadway. So it's certainly, we know it has a track record of happening with the, the not for profit space. But I mean, Adam Driver is doing a show off Broadway and very probably easily could have been on Broadway. And I would not be surprised if some of these things where we've seen some stars do these shows. It was the Aubrey Plaza play that was off Broadway that sold out in an instant, like a lot of those things. I would not be surprised if now that people are seeing that they can make money don't end up beating a hasty retreat to the main stem as well. My first prediction is also something that I think is a little bit more on the business side of things. But over the past, I don't know, year or so, we have seen multiple times and not irregularly, but we have seen weeks in terms of grosses where we have multiple shows on Broadway grossing more than $2 million. Last week, as we're recording, we had four shows north of $2 million with Wicked, Lion King, Hamilton and Elf, all obviously major tourist friendly shows, family friendly shows that are happening during the holidays, but during most given weeks, we don't have anybody grossing $2 million, let alone multiple shows grossing $2 million. Again, holidays are different, but for the most part, it's a fairly rare thing. However, I think that by this summer and even into the fall, we are going to start seeing it be a more of a regular occurrence where we will have not one, but at least two shows grossing $2 million a week. Obviously, this is not because suddenly the theaters are bringing in more people, because these shows that are selling at a $2 million clip already are pretty much at capacity. This is going to be because ticket prices increase. We are seeing pretty great capacity across the board on Broadway, Obviously, there are always going to be shows that don't do as well, but they've really done a great job of getting butts in seats for most of the houses on Broadway. And I think that whether it's inflation or whether it is just the natural cost of living and doing business, those ticket prices are going to go up. So the ones that had been regularly doing 1.7, 1.8 million, the Hamiltons, the MJ's, the outsiders, I think, are going to creep up a little bit closer to 2 million. And then the ones like Wicked and Lion King that have been flirting with 2 million on a regular basis will start to see that as maybe not their floor, but not something that is seen as a ceiling either. So I am wary of this because that means just the average ticket price goes up and it makes it more difficult for normal theater fans, or even people who aren't necessarily theater fans who want to come to New York and see a show that makes it harder for them to purchase tickets. But I do think that this is obviously an eventuality and I think that 2025 might be the time when we cross that Rubicon. Now, I don't know how to measure this. I don't know if it's going to be like, I don't know, 26 weeks out of the year, we're going to have two shows north of $2 million. I don't know. But when I do the grosses every week, Grace, I feel like we're going to be talking about multiple shows north of 2 million on a fairly regular basis.
- [07:10]
B
Now, this is not a prediction. This is more of a request. I am wondering if people are, if especially like producing companies and producers and Broadway houses and things like that are going to be more keen, looking at ensuring limited runs. I am curious to see if, based on the intake and output of Broadway shows, this past year and what was running in and out of theaters. If we are going to be looking at saying, hey, this new musical, even if it's original or not or what is going to have a six month run, we have capitalized for a six month run. If it extends past that, that is great. But we are not interested in that and this is what we are able to do. And our people will have health insurance and it will be a sellout hit. There will be an advance, but I'm wondering if we are going to start pivoting there. So it's not. I'm not saying that the stars are aligning to predict that that will happen. It just feels like it should be happening and I'm curious to see if people are going to start to get a little wise on that. On that front.
- [08:25]
A
That's interesting. I have no idea how that would work from a business and monetary standpoint, but the idea of it is very interesting because anything that producers can do to minimize their risk seems like it would be a pretty good thing in terms of the commercial landscape of theater. All right, Grace, I'm going to do some Tony Awards predictions here. You can comment as you see fit, although I do not imagine that you will very often. In our Q and A episode that aired a week or so ago, I did say who I thought was going to be the best musical nominees and they are in no particular order or actually in alphabetical order. Buena Vista Social Club, Dead Outlaw, Death Becomes her, maybe Happy Ending and Operation Mincemeat. Of those, I do expect Dead Outlaw to win, although I would be very happy if maybe Happy ending one instead. But I feel like those two are going to be the ones that will be contending for it and both were reviewed very well. Maybe Happy Ending was reviewed very well, but Dead Outlaw has a track record of winning awards and a lot of the voters who voted for it off Broadway last year will probably also be very much looking forward to it this year on Broadway as well. So I'm going to go with Dead Outlaw as the best musical winner for best musical Revival. I'm only going to pick four nominees and this gets pretty hard. I think the obvious ones are Sunset and Gypsy. That leaves things like Elf, Lloyd Collins, Once Upon a Mattress, Pirates, the Penzance musical, which I can't believe that's what we're calling it in the last five years based on the pedigree of the show. I'm going to throw Floyd Collins in there as the third. So for me it comes down to last five Years and Pirates, the Penzance musical. I don't, I think that. But people, they, Broadway voters love Jason Harbor Bryant. He has three Tony Awards and he could potentially, if this were to win Best musical revival, which I don't think it will, he would win a Tony still. But I think I'm going to go with Pirates. I'm going to throw Pirates in there because I think it's going to be different. It's going to be a new book by Rupert Holmes. So I'm going to go with the best musical revival nominees are Floyd Collins, Gypsy Pirates, the Penzance musical, and Sunset Boulevard. With Sunset winning that Tony, best play. I honestly don't even know how to do this one because so many there are plays that are opening new on Broadway. But I'm going to take a shot in the dark and I'm going to say with five nominees, I'm going to go English. John Proctor is the villain, oh, Mary, the Picture of Dorian Gray and Good Night and Good Luck. Those are going to be my five nominees. And I am going to say, I want to say English. It's a Pulitzer Prize winner, had an acclaimed off Broadway run, but it's going to be closed. It's closing in March. So I could see something like John Proctor is the villain or the Picture of Dorian Gray or even Good Night. Good Luck winning because it'll be open, but I think I'll stick with English for now. That might be a risk, that might be not a smart move because it will be closed. But I think that show is so beloved that until I see Good Night and Good Luck or Picture of Dorian Gray or John Proctor as the villain, I know about those shows. I know the movie for Good Night and Good Luck, but I've never seen them. So until I see those, I'm going to stick with English. But I obviously reserve the right to change that when we get closer to actual awards time. And then for play revivals, we don't have very many. We only have six. So I'm not even sure. I don't remember the rules. Would we even get four or would it be three? I don't know. But the nominees are Glengarry, Glen Ross, Home, Othello, Our Town, Romeo and Juliet and Yellowface. If we're doing four nominees, I would go Othello, Romeo and Juliet, Yellow Face and Our Town. I think Our Town. I'll go in with that. I'm not. I don't know what I think about Glengarry Glen Ross playing the palace of those. I'm gonna predict Othello to win because it's the only one that is currently scheduled to be playing through the Tonys longer again. Ross's scheduled to close on in May so I guess that's the same. But I didn't have that one in my nominations. So I guess I'll go with Othello with the star power of it all. But those revivals all are a little bit all over the place, Grace. So I don't know exactly what to expect from those quite yet. I know you don't want to comment on nominations and wins or anything, but any thoughts in general on any of those categories?
- [13:27]
B
I think those are really good categories. I do think that it is a mixed bag. Like I think normally we would have like a very, very clear one to one, but they're all so very different pieces that it very much depends on. You're right. Staying power. It depends on, you know, like what the, the climate is feeling like in terms of some of those performances. So I, I do think that it could be any which way. But I am very excited for all of them because there are a lot of shows that I have not seen and at all. Like it's going to be a lot of pieces that I think that a lot of people missed off Broadway or whatever. So we're going to be seeing brand new shows and that's really exciting. So I'm, I'm very excited for, for all of that.
- [14:10]
A
Yeah. And I, that's why I think the revivals are harder because like, we don't know what this Pirates musical is going to look like. We don't know what this last five years is going to look like. We don't know what this Floyd Collins is going to look like. We don't know what this, this Glengarry Glen Ross is going to look like. We don't know what the Sothello is going to look like. So I think it's hard to say like o think this is going to win even though we know nothing about it at least with a lot of the new musicals and even some of the plays that have had off Broadway transfers like or London transfers like we know what those are. So it's a little easier to handicap the new things. But revivals when they're spring openings, we know nothing about the individual productions. That is very hard. So it is a little bit of a crapshoot at this point. But I think this season is great. Like you know, we talked about last season. I thought last season was one where there were a lot of. I Think I said like doubles and maybe a couple of triples, but not a ton of home runs. I feel like we are going this year. I feel like there's more triples and a few more home runs, but as a whole, like last season, I feel like the batting average is really high. Like, I think a lot of these shows are going to be really good. Like I, you know, I said I did not like Tammy Faye. I did not care for Tammy Faye at all. But I don't think that there's going to be a lot of those shows this season where I'm like, wa, wa. That, you know, that didn't do it for me. I feel like a lot of these things that are coming up have all of the ingredients to be excellent. And so I'm excited about this season. I think this is going to be a really, really solid season with something for everybody. Which only makes talking about it for the next six months really fun. But then also seeing the shows, thinking about and talking about the Tonys, I think this has just been a really good couple years on Broadway for interesting, diverse, unique pieces where you have big old fashioned Broadway star driven things, but also you have some really cool art pieces as well. All right, Grace, any other predictions that you want to throw out here before we turn the keys over to everybody else?
- [16:22]
B
No, it's, it's actually everything you just said. So I just second it because that was basically my last talking point was just to say that I think that we are, we are now entering an era where there are more unique and when I, and when I'm talking about diverse, because I still know that we have a genuine diversity problem in terms of like who those faces are that we're seeing on and off stage. It's more so like the diverse nature of the subject matters and a more diverse nature of, you know, tones. I don't think that Operation Mincemeat next to Buena Vista Social Club, next to Death becomes her would have been on anyone's bingo card, but here we are. And I think that that's way more interesting to me than the same old, same old thing. And I just think that's excellent. So I'm, I'm thrilled. I'm also, you know what? I'm also thrilled. This is my final thing. Caroline Bowman in two different shows. Hell yes. Caroline Bowman in Sunset Boulevard and then to Smash. That's crazy. That's my 2025, baby. I will see you all on January 12th.
- [17:26]
A
Okay, so let's talk about this real quick. There are obviously known commodities let's talk about best musicals. There are known properties in here. Betty Boop, Buena Vista Social Club, Death Becomes Her. Real Women have Curves, Smash. But like, there aren't the huge IP driven things. Like, even Death Becomes her, which is probably the biggest, I guess maybe Brave as a social Club. But like, Death Becomes her is the only one. We don't have a season where it's like, you know, I don't can't remember what everything was in what season, but it's not like we've got Back to the Future and all those kind of things that a lot of people turn their noses up at, even the things that are based on existing properties or real life. People like Louis Armstrong and Tammy Faye or I guess an album is the IP for Swept Away or a TV show. It's just like Operation Mincemeat based on history. They're just different. I don't know, they don't feel, and this is a term that I don't really like, but they don't feel as amusement parky as they have in past seasons. And I don't know if that's just a coincidence and a confluence of what was ready to go in certain seasons, but like, it just feels different. This season feels different to me than maybe some of the other ones have. So I don't know what that means exactly. But you know, when you had past seasons of like Back to the Future and. And Once Upon a One More Time and Notebook Outsiders, Water for Elephants and then, you know, even going back even even further when you had like Almost Famous and the and Juliet of It all and, and New York, New York and Some Like It Hot where there's a lot of these things are like big name properties. These just feel smaller and maybe because of that more artistic. To me, they might not be, but that's just kind of the vibe that I get off. All right, let us know what you are predicting for 2025. We love to hear what your predictions are for all things theater related. You can hit us up on social media. Rodwayradio. All right, Greece. That'll be our last episode until we get back to normal on Today or Broadway next week. I will have an interview in tomorrow, in the feed tomorrow, so make sure that you check that out. Thanks for following along through all, all of 2024 and picking us up here in the new year. And we will be here most weekdays, almost every weekday throughout the entire calendar year of 2025. And we cannot tell you how much we appreciate you following along with us. All right, have a wonderful rest of your holiday week, and we'll be back to talk to you tomorrow.