Buffalo Plus Podcast Summary

Episode: "Cut to the 53, pressure on Josh Allen and win total in 2022"
Date: August 25, 2022
Hosts: Mike Catalana, Jenna Cottrell, Dan Fetes

Overview

This episode focuses on the Buffalo Bills' final roster cuts to 53 players, the most concerning position groups, key financial decisions, the status of the secondary, the immense pressure on Josh Allen heading into the 2022 season, and the hosts’ projections for the Bills' win total. The conversation is a blend of analysis and banter, with decades of insider perspective and a touch of humor.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The 53-Man Roster Cuts

• Predictability & Surprise:
  • The consensus is that most roster spots were essentially decided before camp started. Unexpected performances, such as by rookie DB Christian Benford, can change perceptions but fundamentally “we could have predicted 50 of the 53 coming in” (Mike, 02:14).
• Fluidity of the Roster:
  • Emphasis on the now-fluid nature of NFL rosters, especially with early-season injuries and subsequent moves.
  • “It is so fluid now. It's fluid, especially week one, week two...” (Mike, 02:39).

1A. Wide Receiver Depth and Special Teams

• Six vs. Seven Wideouts:

  • Usual debate. Isaiah Hodgins called a "training camp darling" but unlikely to earn a spot over Jake Kumerow’s special teams value (Dan, 03:20; Jenna & Dan, 08:09).
  • Special teams impact is a decisive factor for bottom-of-the-roster players.
  • “If the sixth wide receiver is playing any meaningful time, the Bill season has gone completely off the rails.” (Dan, 12:05).

• Hodgins' Risk on Waivers:

  • Acknowledgement that the Giants, coached by former Bills OC Brian Daboll, might claim Hodgins if the Bills try to stash him on the practice squad (Jenna & Mike, 10:54–11:19).
  • “If Isaiah Hodgins goes to the Giants, good for him… it's no skin off the Bills’ teeth.” (Dan, 11:36).

1B. Tight End Uncertainty

• Tight End #2 Battle:

  • O.J. Howard’s underperformance and looming cap hit are discussed candidly. Cutting him is not "strictly about football" but about what they’re willing to pay for unproductive depth (Mike, 05:17).
  • “If it's strictly football… I think he'd be gone. But it's not strictly football.” (Mike, 06:35).

• Depth & Impact:

  • Concern that no backup TE (Sweeney, Morris, or Howard) is "good enough to keep a guy like Crowder or Shakir off" the roster (Dan, 04:53).
  • If Dawson Knox is injured, the drop-off in passing game impact is significant (Dan, 23:53).

1C. Salary Cap Management

• Restructuring for Flexibility:
  • Live reaction to news of Dion Dawkins' contract restructure, clearing $5.6M in cap space (Dan, 06:44).
  • Strategic financial moves allow absorbing dead money, e.g., if cutting Howard, or for possible extensions (like Jordan Poyer) (Mike, 07:55).

2. The Secondary: Depth & Uncertainty

• Health & Depth Worries:

  • Tre'Davious White likely to miss at least four games; rookies Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford face immediate baptism by fire against the Rams (Mike, 15:05; Dan, 18:22).
  • “I don’t think Cooper Kupp is worried about his opening matchup… that's the real thing; starting out the year it's Cooper Kupp and the Rams.” (Mike, 15:05).

• Dane Jackson’s Emergence:

  • Hosts debate Jackson’s value; some see him as a steady if unspectacular NFL starter, others see his ceiling lower than Elam’s (Dan & Jenna, 16:17–19:03).

• Veteran Free Agent Possibility:

  • Possible addition of a veteran CB after roster cuts remains on the table (Mike, 20:01).
  • “Leslie said it, those rookies gonna have the big bullseye on them… I could see them making that move.” (Mike, 20:43).

• Slot Consistency:

  • Taron Johnson is an underrated backbone of the defense in his nickel role (Mike & Jenna, 22:06–23:19).

3. Pressure on Josh Allen and the Franchise

• Sky-High Expectations:

  • Bills are Super Bowl favorites. Anything short of at least an AFC Championship appearance will be seen as a disappointment (Jenna, 27:32).
  • “They’ve set the bar so high. And Josh has.” (Mike, 27:32).

• Judging Quarterbacks by Rings:

  • Fair or not, quarterback perception is tied to playoff wins and Super Bowls, with Allen's legacy on the line each postseason (Mike, 28:00).
  • “It falls on the quarterbacks… as great as Josh has been, if they don't get there this year…” (Mike, 28:08).

• Internal vs. External Pressure:

  • Inside the building, most pressure is on Head Coach Sean McDermott and new OC Ken Dorsey (who’s expected to deliver with the offense left from Brian Daboll).
  • Nationally, blame and praise default to Allen: “Externally… it’s the quarterbacks. It’s always about the quarterbacks.” (Mike, 31:54)

• Allen’s Likeability:

  • The panel notes Allen’s popularity may shield him from some criticism, compared to Mahomes or other QBs (Dan, 34:24).
  • “Josh has a shield on him because he's so likable.” (Dan, 34:24).

4. Win Total Predictions & Schedule Difficulty

• 2022 Win Over/Under:

  • Vegas line is 11.5 wins.
  • Dan initially debates the under; worries about the jump from an easy schedule to one of the league’s toughest. Notes last year’s bad 0–6 record in one-score games as a probable outlier (Dan, 37:20).
  • All hosts ultimately go over, citing 12 or 13 wins as realistic:
    • Dan: “I think 12.” (Dan, 38:56)
    • Mike: “I can't get the number 13 out of my head... I'm going with 13 and 4.” (Mike, 39:26)
    • Jenna: “I think that's about where I see them.” (Jenna, 38:58)
  • “We’re just tossing out 12–5 and 13–4. It's a tough schedule, but it's gonna be fun.” (Mike, 40:03)

• Memorable Moment:

  • Recalling the shocking loss to Jacksonville, reinforcing that NFL seasons defy predictions (Mike & Dan, 39:06).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Final 53:

  • "We could have predicted 50 of the 53 coming in. It's just a matter of some of these last things." (Mike, 02:14)

• WR Depth & Preseason Darlings:

  • "If the sixth wide receiver on the Bills is playing any meaningful time, the Bill season has gone completely off the rails." (Dan, 12:05)

• On Special Teams Impact:

  • “Brandon Bean was asked about...the accountability there, that matters to them. And obviously Kumaro has carved out a role for himself there.” (Jenna, 13:14)

• Financial Management Reality:

  • "The money is in Brandon Bean's head because he paid it already...if it was strictly football, I think [Howard]'d be gone. But it's not strictly football." (Mike, 05:17–06:35)

• Cornerback Situation - Season Opener:

  • "Elam looks like the guy, though there's going to be growing pains...I don't think Cooper Kupp is worried about his opening matchup." (Mike, 15:05)

• Judging Quarterbacks:

  • "It falls on the quarterbacks...as great as Josh has been, if they don't get there this year...” (Mike, 28:08)

• On Allen vs. Mahomes:

  • "The Chiefs have ended the Bill season the last two years. Not on Josh, especially last year. But it falls on the quarterback. It always does." (Mike, 28:28)

• Allen’s Perception:

  • “I just wonder if Josh has a shield on him because he's so likable...” (Dan, 34:24)

• 2022 Record Prediction:

  • "I can't get the number 13 out of my head...that's going to be a big early test...I'm going to go 13 and 4." (Mike, 39:26)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Roster Cuts & Predictability – 02:14
• WR Depth & Hodgins vs. Kumerow – 08:09–12:14
• Tight End Uncertainty & Cap Management – 04:53–07:55
• Secondary Depth (Benford, Elam, Dane Jackson) – 15:05–20:43
• Taron Johnson’s Underrated Importance – 22:06–23:19
• Dawson Knox & TE Depth Concern – 23:53
• Knox’s Loss & Return after Family Tragedy – 24:46–26:16
• Pressure on Allen, McDermott, and Dorsey – 27:32–36:48
• Allen’s Perception Nationally vs. Locally – 31:54–35:35
• Win Total Predictions – 37:20–40:03

Tone & Style

The discussion is upbeat, knowledgeable, and sprinkled with humor:

• Dan Fetes: Wry and self-deprecating, often poking fun at his own "lukewarm takes"
• Mike Catalana: Direct, experienced, measured analysis
• Jenna Cottrell: Balances the two, keeping focus and injecting relatable fan perspective

Concluding Summary

The episode provides an in-depth, engaging look at the state of the Buffalo Bills ahead of the 2022 season opener. While the hosts agree on the roster's overall strength, they flag the thinness at tight end, cornerback uncertainty without Tre’Davious White, and the ever-present scrutiny on Josh Allen in the Super Bowl window. The tone is hopeful but realistic, with seasoned skepticism about NFL unpredictability despite the team's sky-high expectations. All eyes are on the Bills to see if they can turn perennial contention into championship reality.