PRIMETIME PREDICTIONS for the BILLS schedule and 'REALISTIC' EXPECTATIONS for Buffalo's OFFENSE

Summary

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Buffalo Plus Podcast: "PRIMETIME PREDICTIONS for the BILLS schedule and 'REALISTIC' EXPECTATIONS for Buffalo's OFFENSE"

Hosts: Mike Catalana, Dan Fetes, (with Jenna Cottrell referenced, on vacation)
Date: May 14, 2024
Episode Overview:
This episode dives into two main topics: predicting the Buffalo Bills’ primetime games ahead of the NFL schedule release, and setting “realistic” expectations for the Bills’ revamped offense in the wake of Stefon Diggs’ departure. The hosts analyze scheduling trends, speculate on marquee matchups, and debate what fans should genuinely expect from Josh Allen and his supporting cast in 2024.

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Main Themes & Purpose

• Primetime Schedule Predictions:
  The hosts lay out their picks and rationale for when, where, and against whom the Bills are likely to land high-profile night games next season.
• Realistic Offensive Expectations:
  With Diggs gone, the crew discusses what constitutes “fair” performance expectations for the major players (Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, etc.) in a changing offense and the unique challenges that come with replacing a number-one receiver.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bills’ Primetime Games: How Many and Against Whom?

• Expectation: Bills will get their “allotment” of primetime games due to Josh Allen’s star power, despite a less compelling home schedule.
  (03:13) "The Bills still have Josh Allen... they're going to get their allotment of night games." — Mike
• Primetime Opportunities: With Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night football, plus Thanksgiving and Christmas, the NFL has more slots to fill and the Bills remain a national draw.
• Road vs. Home Matchups:
  The road schedule provides more interest for primetime due to better matchups. (04:04, 12:41)
• Week 1 Prediction: Likely an "unsexy" opener, possibly Bills-Patriots at 1 PM, with bigger matchups saved for later (04:36).

Likely Primetime Opponents (Aggreement & Debate)

• Top Contenders (Texans, Ravens, Niners, Dolphins, plus either Lions or Jets)
  • "We're in agreement: Texans, Ravens, Niners, Dolphins are the primetime games." (14:40)
• Thanksgiving and Christmas: Hosts hope the Bills “avoid” these spots due to personal and logistical inconvenience, but acknowledge national appeal (08:06).

Notable Quote

• "As long as 17 (Allen) is running the show, they are a prime time darling. And he puts on a show." (17:57) — Mike

2. Which Matchups Have the Most National Buzz?

• Diggs vs. Bills Narrative (Texans Matchup):
  • National storyline looms large; a likely early season primetime game.
    • "This will be a primetime game; it needs to be in the first six weeks... It’s got to be fresh." (12:09) — Dan
• AFC East Showdowns:
  • Miami games remain valuable, despite some fatigue; always likely for primetime.
  • "Eagles and Cowboys play primetime every year." (07:07) — Mike

3. Realistic Offensive Expectations Without Diggs

The Challenge:

• Volume to Replace:
  Diggs’ 160 targets and 1,183 yards must be redistributed.
• Kincaid Pressure:
  Hosts warn against inflated expectations for Dalton Kincaid, emphasizing the rarity of 1,000-yard tight end seasons. (21:12, 27:30)
  • "That’s a lot to ask for a second year tight end to be the focal point..." (20:43) — Dan
  • "Maybe temper expectations. Maybe Kincaid's that guy." (28:01) — Mike

Who Steps Up?

• Curtis Samuel:
  Projected to outperform Gabe Davis by "doing it differently." Seen as a major addition, not a Diggs replacement but a vital, versatile part. (22:40)
• Route Distribution:
  Offense expected to be more “spread out,” with yardage and targets more evenly shared among Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid, but the hosts caution against assuming linear growth based on end-of-year surges.
• Efficiency Over Raw Numbers:
  Offense could be more efficient, even if Allen’s yardage dips; the hosts set the over-under at roughly 3,900 yards for Allen in 2024. (23:02)

Notable Quotes

• "If Josh wanted to spread the ball around, [he] could have last year. He didn’t. He still threw the ball 160 times to one guy." (20:42) — Dan
• "Progress isn’t linear... it's really easy to sit here and say, 'well, this guy [Shakir] will just have a thousand yards.'” (22:52, 26:50) — Dan

Schedule Impacts Offensive Growth:

• An easier early schedule would benefit a Bills team seeking offensive identity and cohesion with new pieces. (23:59–24:10)
• "It'd be good for the offense and the defense because I think this team, it will take a little while to gel." (24:10) — Mike

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Bills’ National Appeal:
  “They are a prime time darling...Josh [Allen] just puts on a show.” (17:57) — Mike

• On Kincaid Filling Diggs’ Void:
  “That’s a lot to ask for a second-year tight end to be the focal point of your passing game attack.” (20:43) — Dan

• On the Diggs-Texans Narrative:
  “This will be a primetime game and it will be in the first six weeks of the season.” (12:09) — Dan

• On Realistic Expectations:
  “Maybe temper expectations. Maybe Kincaid’s that guy.” (28:01) — Mike

• On Nationally Sexy Matchups:
  “You can make a case for a lot of these games... Dolphins, Ravens, Lions, Texans, Niners—these are the games where you do just feel like it feels like a night game.” (14:27) — Mike

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:23, 10:22, 11:11: Diggs trade/Texans matchup, national vs. local storyline
• 02:58–06:38: How the primetime schedule is decided; what counts as “night games”
• 07:07–07:25: Bills-Dolphins in primetime; parallels to other annual matchups
• 08:06–10:11: Thanksgiving and Christmas scheduling debate
• 12:55–14:40: Final primetime picks and divisional games
• 17:56–18:19: Allen’s star power, Bills as “prime time darling”
• 20:38–21:12: Diggs’ production and the pressure on remaining pass-catchers
• 23:35–24:18: Why early schedule is crucial for offensive development
• 27:30–28:04: The rare nature of 1,000-yard tight end seasons and why fans should “temper expectations” regarding Kincaid

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Conclusion & Takeaways

• Bills to Feature Heavily in Primetime:
  Five night games expected, most likely against Texans (early for Diggs drama), Ravens, Niners, Dolphins, and Jets/Lions.

• New Look Offense Faces Questions:
  The offense must evolve without a true No.1 WR; expectations for Kincaid and Samuel should be “measured,” and overall production may spread out more.

• Patience Required:
  Team needs a soft early schedule to allow for offensive “gelling”; fans should moderate their statistical expectations for non-Allen skill players.

• National Interest Remains High:
  Bills are a ratings draw as long as Josh Allen is at the helm.

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This episode is a must-listen for Bills fans who want a level-headed forecast of the team’s schedule advantages and learn what is realistic (and what isn’t) for Buffalo’s offense in the post-Diggs era.

Transcript

[A]

In the time it takes you to.

[B]

Actually board a flight from Group 8.

[A]

Now boarding Premier Altitude Elite Club members, you could have bought a Hyundai on Amazon. Visit HyundaiUSA.com or call 562-314-4603 for more details. Limited availability pickup through participating Hyundai dealer and select markets. The Diggs thing with the Texans, I think that's a big thing for Bill's fans. I don't think it's as big a deal around the country.

[B]

I think it's the other way around. It was such a big story nationally. It's what led to first take and get up when everything was fine. They were still saying, why is Diggs unhappy? And Stephen A. Is going. He wants out. And this will be a primetime game and it will be in the first six weeks of the season. This is the Buffalo plus podcast brought to you by Connors and Ferris. Hey everyone and welcome Back to the Buffalo plus YouTube channel. Mike Catalana, Dan Fates, Jenna Cot coming back from vacation shortly?

[A]

Yes, very shortly.

[B]

Yes. In route. Some would say it's about time. I'd say so. We.

[A]

We did give her time.

[B]

We did give her directions on how to find her way back to the studio.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

After she.

[A]

She has gps.

[B]

Yes. After some rest and relaxation for her. Please be sure to like comment and subscribe. Want to get into a couple housekeeping things beforehand? Podcast today?

[A]

Right.

[B]

We are going to talk about some expectations, realistic expectations, as well as preview what we think the primetime matchups could be. Should be. Mike's got one that'll probably surprise us.

[A]

Yeah, well, we'll see. We'll talk about what could surprise so.

[B]

We got that today. We're recording this Monday. That means our podcast always drops on Tuesday. Then we're going to have another podcast that will be out Thursday morning.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Likely Wednesday night. Thursday morning after the schedule drop because we know the schedule will be released.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

As of 8 o' clock on Thursday. Again, appreciate the support as always. Like comment Subscribe 24,000 views on the last video 22 the one before that 27 again share it with a friend. We really appreciate it. It takes just a second. We really though appreciate it as well.

[A]

I also want to mention we didn't really know but both of us came in with our PGA Oak Hill shirts on the pullovers because it's PGA Week. PGA San Louisville this week. Valhalla friend of mine belongs to Valhalla. He has invited me to play out there.

[B]

Must be nice.

[A]

But I can't because it's the week of training camp. The first week of training camp, which.

[B]

We assume is going to be here in Rochester.

[A]

Yeah, it's going to be here in Rochester. Yes. Because we. We break news.

[B]

That's it. That's.

[A]

We break news.

[B]

Like it or not. We break. We break news. But obviously we know the scheduled release is coming up this week or is coming up on. On Wednesday. I don't think there's any surprise that. Do you think, Mike, there'd be any reason why the Bills don't get a full allotment of primetime games?

[A]

No. They have Josh Allen and look, it's wild the way the schedule is now. I do think we have to keep one thing in mind when they talk about primetime games. You know, there are games that aren't played at night. Technically not at night.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

But if you play in November at 4. 25, that's basically a night game, because we've seen it. That is such a phenomenal time to play a game. I love the 425 game, especially on the road. It's kind of fun.

[B]

Absolutely.

[A]

And so that's the case. So there are games that way. But let's face it, this league has Thursday night, they have Sunday night, they have Monday night. That's a lot of games to fill. And the Bills still have Josh Allen and we can talk about all these other guys. There's a lot of very good players in this league and big teams. But I still think the. The Bills will get their allotment of night games.

[B]

I agree.

[A]

And then you see how it plays out.

[B]

The one thing I think that stands out to me, though, Mike, and as we were kind of joking around about what we think is predictions, their away schedule. Way more enticing of matchups.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Than their home schedule.

[A]

And they have nine games, Right?

[B]

Correct.

[A]

Yeah. Nine games on the road. Yeah.

[B]

So push comes to shove, if you're a betting man, you would. I would assume week one. Math would tell me it's probably going to be on the road.

[A]

They were on the road last year to start the year at the Jets. That game, I've heard people say, run it back again. I do think there's the possibility the jets get that again, but I don't think they would do. Jets and Bills.

[B]

I agree.

[A]

I don't. We could be wrong. You never know what it is.

[B]

We could be wrong on a lot of this.

[A]

Yes. I actually think. I think it's a nice, quiet opener.

[B]

I agree.

[A]

I think it's either home or away against New England. A 1 o' clock Sunday game. I. And the Bills are still The Bills that first weekend. There's a lot of teams like Houston that's going to get in there. Could they do Houston? Yeah, sure. But I think. I think. I think there's a chance for Sunday, one o' clock against. And I say the Patriots. I mean, it just. I feel like that could be the case.

[B]

Where do you weigh the difference? Because I was looking at this going. Looking at what games to me pop off, especially at home.

[A]

Yep.

[B]

Do you think, in your opinion, that a Miami game that maybe we've seen once or twice or in primetime spots is more valuable, more interesting to a national audience, or would it be like a San Fran game against team they don't really play? That. That doesn't have as much of a meaning.

[A]

Yeah. You know what? I think San Francisco is a lot like Philly a year ago. I think that is a Sunday possibility of a Sunday 425 game. But I actually have it down as a Monday Night Football game. I heard somebody say Thursday, that's tough for a West coast team unless they're off the week before they can do it. But that's come all the way east. Unless. Unless it was combined with a Niner schedule where they're going to stay over wherever they are. Yeah, but even that is tough to come right back and play on a Thursday. So I right now have it as a Monday night game against the niners. But that 4:25 time is very valuable. And that game was in. In Philly last year. So it's a home game. So that would be. Again, that would be. That was a what? That last year was a CB CBS game. Because Bills were the road team.

[B]

Correct.

[A]

So this would be a Fox game. They love that. CBS really loves it because CBS doesn't have primetime games.

[B]

Correct.

[A]

So they love that. But I have that as a night game because it's the Niners and the Bills.

[B]

I guess I was just, I was looking at that going, we've seen this Miami AFC east matchup a bunch. It was the final game of the season. All of those things. Not to say there's fatigue, but it's almost like, would they want to see something different? Different jerseys, different quarterbacks facing off against one another.

[A]

Eagles and Cowboys play primetime every year.

[B]

That is true.

[A]

They just do. And I still think Bills and Dolphins and I have it for a Sunday night game. I know we focus on the night games. Listen, the night games I know are tough on a lot of people. I still believe with Josh it's going to be five, because it is. And then we'll see which ones play out.

[B]

Yeah. I'd be stunned if it wasn't five. Excuse me. Just because. Look, there it is. Like I said there. The home schedule is not as enticing as the road schedule. So I think that that's going to play into it as well.

[A]

One thing I wanted to mention, there's the Thanksgiving night game. I've seen people. Because they play on the road at Detroit. I don't think they would rerun the Detroit game.

[B]

I don't think so.

[A]

I don't think they need to. I think if the Bills play Thanksgiving, they're hosting it as a night game. That would be the late game on Thanksgiving. Okay, that would be my. They've already played every other spot. Right. They played the night game in New Orleans. They played at Detroit. They played.

[B]

So you think it'd be a 425?

[A]

Oh, no, no, no. 425 is the Cowboys game. It's the 8 o' clock at night game.

[B]

Oh, so they would host that game.

[A]

They would host.

[B]

They did that in New Orleans.

[A]

They did that in New Orleans. If they did that game, you could put anybody in there. Yeah, it's Thanksgiving night now. That's, that's, that's a long day for people. But if you did Bills at home against the Jags, Bills at home against. Even the Patriots, it's Thanksgiving night. Like, you're going to wake up after your nap and you're going to get up. Not you. You guys will be ready. But I'm just saying, that's out there. And then there's Christmas. That's out there. I don't want Christmas. I don't want Christmas. It's a Wednesday.

[B]

This is classic. The NFL can't fail because this is. This is the epitome of greed. They had big numbers. It was fine. It was great. It's one of those anomalies where the calendar lines up.

[A]

Oh, yeah. For like a few years, too. And then I said to you, oh, thank goodness it's a Wednesday. Like, what are you going to do on a Wednesday? That's the one day of the week you can't. Oh, now the NFL goes, hmm. We'll have teams play on a Saturday and then on a Wednesday. And I guess the idea is they would do it within division so they can mix the teams that play each other twice.

[B]

That's what we were. Those were the whispers we were kind of hearing the fact that they can.

[A]

Make it like an AFC east round robin thing there. I. I don't want it. I might Watch some football and thank. On Christmas. I hope I'm not covering a game on Christmas.

[B]

My wife and kids would really, really not have the Bills play on things on Christmas.

[A]

But if they're gonna play on Christmas, make it a night game. Yes, make it Christmas.

[B]

Is there two or three games?

[A]

I think it's two. And by the way, it's gonna be on Netflix.

[B]

Yeah. And it's what, three and six?

[A]

Oh, it's only six.

[B]

I thought. I thought that was kind of what the times.

[A]

And it fell. All right, I'm. I'm just saying this. No Christmas, no Thanksgiving.

[B]

We're going to will it into existence. It would be so much better for the Bills and Dolphins to play in Buffalo early and in Miami later in the year.

[A]

I like it better. I think it's better for you guys. I mean, there's a lot of people who like to make that trip. All right, I'm going to say this, and I don't know if you're going to agree with me. The digs thing with the Texans, I think that's a big thing for Bills fans, somewhat for Texans fans. I don't think it's as big a deal around the country. You disagree?

[B]

I absolutely disagree. You think it's a bigger deal for Bill's fans? Not national. I think it's the other way around. It was such a big story nationally that people in Buffalo were like, who cares? This is a big story because nationally, it was made into a bigger story than what it. Than what it really was. And we still won't know the full, full, whole nine yards about it, but we will see all this, and this will be a primetime game, and it will be in the first six weeks of the season.

[A]

So I had it as a Monday night game. I did prime. First of all, the Texans are fun to watch. Bills have Allen, the whole thing. I will say this. I always say to you guys, like, I look at my brothers and my friends at home, they're all Eagles fans. They love the Bills. They love watching them. They love Josh. They love the whole thing. When that comes, like, I don't think they're going, oh, boy, digs against the Bills until it gets to that point. I just don't see it as, like, as big nationally. I think it was a huge deal because it was, you know, it was a surprise. I don't know.

[B]

Drama.

[A]

Yeah. They love that it'll be a Monday night because ESPN can play it.

[B]

It's a diva wide receiver. It's what. It's what led first take and get up for when there wasn't a story, when everything was fine. They were still saying, why is Diggs unhappy? And Stephen A. Is going. He wants out. This is going to be a big story.

[A]

Yeah. Okay. I'm probably wrong.

[B]

It needs to be in the first six weeks of the season, because if Diggs has a slow start and has. They play Week 12 and Diggs has 300 yards, which I'm sure you would love, Bills fans, it ain't going to have the same oomph. It's got to be early in the season. It's got to be fresh.

[A]

Yeah. Because.

[B]

Because it will lose. It will lose steam.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

This isn't McCoy going back and ripping on Chip Kelly.

[A]

Yeah. Oh, that's great. If you can listen to that podcast. Yeah.

[B]

There's a. After this, after this, get shady, unfiltered.

[A]

Calling up teammates, going. What do you think of Chip?

[B]

Unbelievable.

[A]

So good. All right. What. What else do you have on? Because the road schedule is great. Our travel is going to be fun. I mean, they got some. I mean, even the Colts is an underrated game.

[B]

So you had five.

[A]

I have three road games on prime time.

[B]

Okay. What are they?

[A]

I have at the Texans Monday night.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

I have at the Ravens Sunday night, though. I don't think. I think they would. I was thinking about Thanksgiving, but I don't think they'd, quote, waste it.

[B]

Like, you don't need to.

[A]

You don't need to use it there. I had that as a Sunday night game, and I have at the jets as a Thursday night game. Division game Thursday night.

[B]

So I'll say. I think the road games are like we were talking about. I think it's Houston, I think it's the Ravens, and I think it's the Lions.

[A]

Oh, it could be.

[B]

I think the Lions are fun. That type of dynamic. They've already had a cup. They had that Thanksgiving game, which was.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

It was wild.

[A]

Good game. Yeah.

[B]

They can play up the storyline of the Bills have played here and all this stuff with the snow and all these things. I. I think they milk that for us.

[A]

They're really good and should have been in the Super Bowl.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

So, yeah. I mean, look, when you look, you can make a case for a lot of those games. You got division games, obviously. Jets, Patriots, Dolphins, Ravens, Lions. Seahawks. Not necessarily. But come on, The Seahawks are going to play a home primetime game. The place looks awesome.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

In a prime time. It's like. It's like the Bills at any point. It's like if you gave them a Home prime time game. They didn't have them for a while. Yeah, you gave them that. That's good. Rams, you know, they're okay. I think Colts is really. I so I'm saying is you can make a case for a lot of these games.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

But we just tend to look at the ones that are the two teams like we've talked about. Dolphins, Ravens, Lions, you know, Texans, Niners. Like these are the games where you do just feel like it feels like a night game.

[B]

So we're in agreement no matter what. It's Texans, Ravens, Niners, Dolphins are the primetime games.

[A]

So I have Niners, Dolphins at home.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

Texans, Ravens. And I have Jets.

[B]

You have Jets, I have Lions.

[A]

Yeah. And that could be now.

[B]

I can't wait till we're wrong on all of these.

[A]

All of them. But I wanted to go through my Sunday one o' clock games. Here we go. I'm going to go a little heavier. Jags, Titans, Cardinals, Patriots, Colts, Patriots.

[B]

Both Patriots games. But you said the Bills could be the one.

[A]

They could be. But I'm gonna say.

[B]

You don't think Drake may gets one.

[A]

He might. But I don't know if this is. I have six Sunday 1 o' clock games.

[B]

Just get that. The Bills fans. It's the Wolverine holding the picture frame.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

One o' clock games.

[A]

I got six one o' clock games and 11 non one o' clock games.

[B]

Schedule wise. That's our podcast to you is out in the morning. Then it's a late. It's a late night.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

We Late night.

[A]

Yes. Hey, I'm looking at this going we don't have to go to Kansas City.

[B]

That is right.

[A]

Yeah. I did find a nice Italian restaurant there because I'm. I'm barbecued out.

[B]

Yeah. Slapped out.

[A]

That'll be. That'll be for a few years from now.

[B]

The draft will be. We'll do the draft whenever Jenna decides to work. If she ever decides to work again. I have the first overall pick.

[A]

Yes. It's big.

[B]

She went to London last year.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

To figure out some things.

[A]

We got some. With some things.

[B]

Detroit's got a great casino. Baltimore's got a good casino. Miami Indy's fine. We could Scooter. We could relive the Scooter.

[A]

Oh my God. Depends. Being wild. If there was like snow out there.

[B]

Scooters and Seattle. Seattle Be. I. I think Seattle's a.

[A]

How we got Seattle and the Rams.

[B]

Yeah. So comment in what you guys think the schedule could be what you think are the most enticing games. We're in agreement on four out of the five, what we think will be prime things. Give me your Wells. Yeah.

[A]

Your idea is on the. The Sunday one o' clock thing and I totally get it. Like, it is nice when you're back to there when you're a really good team and you got that Sunday one and you're like, okay.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

But I always think about when, you know, when they're sitting in the booth and they're going, coming up next Monday night. Who's the picture? It's Josh.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Who's the second guy on the Bills? Used to be Diggs.

[B]

Yeah, used to be Diggs. Dalton.

[A]

Oh, that's a stretch. You would put him up there. And people, people at home. I mean, you're talking to a national audience.

[B]

I know.

[A]

Von Miller, probably. I mean, if you're talking about who's known.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Or it's McDermott.

[B]

The McDermott. Clapping would be good.

[A]

Yeah. Because the Patriots can throw up. Drake may like all the teams with the new quarterback. You can throw the new quarterback up there. And I'm not saying the Bills are a winner. They won the division all these years. They. In the playoffs, it's still the Bills, but as long as 17 is running the show.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

They are a prime time darling. And he puts on a show. It's funny, I heard somebody talking. I think it was Sal Capaco. They were talking about Burrow. And I think they're right. Like, Burrow is a great player. Kind of boring as a player. He's efficient. He's so good when he's on. He's on. He ain't giving you what Mahomes and Allen are giving you.

[B]

But that's not fair to say. That's an. That's an unfair to me comparison.

[A]

No, but I'm just talking about. I want to watch this guy. I think he's great. I think he's a great player. He's. He's incredibly efficient as a quarterback.

[B]

Is he more or less exciting than CJ Stroud, which everybody oozing eyes over?

[A]

I like cj. I like watching him.

[B]

He's Joe Cool.

[A]

Yeah, he's cool. But. And listen, you get to walk into.

[B]

The stadium wearing, wearing all this stuff.

[A]

Okay. I mean, that's great. My wife thinks he's cute.

[B]

He does have a. He's got that.

[A]

He's got that. Look at the. Mom thinks he's cute.

[B]

He's got like this 17 year old or like 17 year old.

[A]

Like so cute. Yeah, okay, whatever. Hey, listen, I think he's Very good. But I just don't think his style of play is incredibly exciting. Like I would say this, I don't think Dak Prescott is incredibly exciting. He puts up big numbers. He's playing for the Cowboys. That's huge. I just think his style, Josh, I guess just we're spoiled by Josh. Yeah, I mean, he puts on a show.

[B]

Gone off the rails a little bit.

[A]

It's all right. Okay.

[B]

Expectations, Right. Switching gears again. Comment in what you think of the schedule, the games, and who is the second picture on the Bills when they get talked about previously. This is something because look, we're recording this on May 13, right? Understanding the season is, is so far away, but there is been this, this talk about where the Bill's offense is, what it's going to be and all of these things. And, and without Diggs, I think it's so, so many people are just saying, well, this guy will step up and this guy will step up. And we've had these conversations before and I think a little bit of this is what are realistic expectations for filling Stefan Diggs's shoes. And they're big shoes to fill. Whether or not you think, oh, he was a diva, whether or not you liked him, whether you thought he stunk, whether you thought he fell off the map, that's fine. You still have to replace 160 targets. And for everybody that says this will be better, they'll spread the ball around more. That may be true and I understand that. But when push comes to shove, if Josh wanted to spread the ball around, could have last year.

[A]

He didn't.

[B]

He still threw the ball 160 times to one guy.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So what? Where are you going from there? And so I just kind of wanted to talk about and comment in with what you think realistic expectations are because the first one that always comes up is Don Kincaid. Well, you don't need a number one wide receiver because you have D and Kade, which I say that's a lot to ask for a second year tight end to be the focal point of your passing game attack.

[A]

I would say if Dalton Kincaid had very similar numbers to a year ago and maybe got in the end zone more. I think he had two touchdowns.

[B]

Two touchdowns.

[A]

It would be a really good year. Like his numbers for a rookie tight end were really good.

[B]

What do you know him off top of your head?

[A]

900 yards, 70 some odd catches. Am I close?

[B]

673 yards. Oh, that's all he had, 73 catches.

[A]

Okay. Maybe it's what I was hoping he would be closer to 900 yards after Diggs.

[B]

Diggs had 1183 yards.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

After Diggs, Gabe Davis with 746. Dalton Kincaid with 673. Khalil Shakir was 611. Wow.

[A]

Shakir was that close to Kincaid.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

In yardage. I would just say this. I think the offense has changed. And I know what you're thinking and you're right, it already started to evolve in the second half of the year with Joe Brady. I think Joe Brady, this is what both he and Sean McDermott want. And I think with the current roster, it's what they need. They need the contribution from other players. I'll tell you this, you're not replacing Diggs's production and the amount of targets that go to him as no.1 guy is getting that. But I can tell you this. In my opinion, Curtis Samuel will surpass the production of Gabe Davis in total. No question in my mind he'll do it very differently. But I thought Gabe Davis's lack of production held back the entire offense because they were looking at him as a number two guy.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And I don't know what the rookie's going to do. I don't know in terms of this. I just think Curtis Samuel, based on what they're going to try to do, will be a very productive player in this offense.

[B]

And that's the thing is I always talk about is that like, progress isn't linear. Like, I. I think it's realistic to some point to say that, like, maybe Josh doesn't have 4, 300 passing yards next year.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Like. Like this offense can be more efficient while Josh's numbers passing without a true number one wide receiver while trying to figure out where this passing goes. I don't think it's. Where do you want to put the over? Under 3,900. If he throws for 4,000 yards, I think they'd be pretty good.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Considering the circumstances that we stand at right now on May 13th. I understand Josh is Josh and we've talked about how amazing he is. He's got to have some guys and some guys got to step up. If Khalil Shakir catches a thousand yards, I think that'll be awesome.

[A]

Awesome.

[B]

Yeah, I think that'll be awesome. I think it's a high bar for a guy. For a guy to jump.

[A]

It is. But he also didn't get the targets. Then the question is, without Diggs on the field, who did take attention away. Can. Can Khalil step up? I think he's wired to step up. It's just a matter of how high he can't. And listen, when we talked about the schedule, it would be a big plus for this team if the early schedule was a little lighter.

[B]

Need the early schedule.

[A]

Like you don't want. You really don't want a bear to begin the year.

[B]

You want Patriots, Titans, Jags among the first five games.

[A]

Yes. I think it'd be good both for the offense and the defense because I think this team, it will take a little while to gel.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And it'll be interesting. Listen, I know they're going to run it. I know they're going to try to. I know they're going to maybe get the backs involved. I know they're going to use Samuel in different ways. It's going to be different. I got to tell you, the other team who's going to be doing that is Kansas City. Again.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

Because no matter what they ended up doing Rasheed Rice. I'm playing for that team that. I think he's out soon. Yeah, I think he's going to be out. He might be out for the entire year.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

With a suspension. That's a step back from them.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I mean, they brought in, they. They were talking like Zay Jones here. They know they need people.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So Kansas City was probably thinking they could take a step up. They're going to need to play that way again.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And so there isn't. There is a thing there. So what are my expectations? My expectations are I think they're going to try to play this way. I think it's going to take a little while to get there. I think it's hard to look at this offense and say, well, we know what this guy's going to do because we don't have anybody in this whole roster that, you know, the closest one is Kincaid and he did it for one year that I think he's a really good player with good hands. I think he'll make good plays. But in terms of boom, step up. Boom, step up. Now Curtis Samuel in that role, I think Samuel will be good. But as much as you want to dump on Diggs and he deserves a lot of it, you knew that the guy was at least going to put.

[B]

Up numbers and there's going to be different attention now to Shakir. There's different attention to Kincaid. And I'm not trying to be box score scout here and shit all over numbers, but like to sit there and say, Dalton Kincaid is going to catch a thousand yards. He averaged 42 receiving yards a game like he was.

[A]

He Got better.

[B]

He got better. Absolutely. But I've seen a lot of people say like well Khalil and what he did at the end of the season. You can't just take the sample size that you like of five games and then say we'll multiply. Look at that. Over a 17 game season. That's how it works. That's, that's not.

[A]

You could take the downside games too.

[B]

Correct. Because I would also say take Stefan Diggs's first six games. You'd say he's going to have 2,000 yards.

[A]

Right.

[B]

So all I'm trying to do and I'm not trying to rain on the parade, I'm not going to sit here and say the Bills aren't a good team or their offense. I have concerns. It's just where is this offensive. Where is the production going to come from? And it's just. It's really easy to sit here and say well this guy will just have a thousand yards and well this guy, he's going to get more targets and that's how this works. I don't like putting so much pressure on players to step up to be their guy because we just saw it with Gabe Davis. We thought look at what he did. Yes, he's going to do it now we with more opportunities. It's not always the case.

[A]

Yeah. I just wanted to say this. I do think they are going to attempt to play the way they want to. I think an off season of, of Joe Brady is a good thing for them to get ready.

[B]

Massive.

[A]

I want to be on the same page with this but there's adjustments, you know, no Mitch Morris at center. It's going to make it different. No digs out there on the field where you knew kind of that part that you had.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I'm cautiously optimistic that this offense can become efficient and, and good. 100% combined with a defense that I think is going to be more athletic.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

And get Matt Milano on the field. I'm encouraged by that. But it might take a little bit and that's the part I think you need.

[B]

Patience, light schedule early again. My last point, I've talk brought it up multiple times. Last 10 years there have been 23 tight ends that have had a thousand yard seasons or there have been 23 seasons of a tight end having a thousand yards. Travis Kelce has seven, Greg KD has three. Gron has three. Olson has. Greg Olsen has three, Darren Waller has two. Andrews Pitts er, Delaney Walker and Gary Barnage are the other guys that have won. So think about all these great tight ends. Mark Andrews K. They've got one.

[A]

Yeah. And maybe temper expectations. Maybe Kincaid's that guy.

[B]

All say is temper expectations. That being said, that'll do it for us. Check out the schedule like Comment Subscribe. We will be back on Wednesday night or Thursday morning, depending how we when.

[A]

We get the official schedule, everything is out.

[B]

All that comes out again from Mike Catalana. For Jenna Cotra on vacation, I'm Dan Fates. Share it with a friend. We appreciate as always. We'll see you next time here on.

[A]

The Buffalo Plus YouTube channel.

[B]

Buffalo plus, your interactive look at the week in football, brought to you by Connors and Ferris.