Buffalo Plus Podcast: "PRIMETIME PREDICTIONS for the BILLS schedule and 'REALISTIC' EXPECTATIONS for Buffalo's OFFENSE"

Hosts: Mike Catalana, Dan Fetes, (with Jenna Cottrell referenced, on vacation)
Date: May 14, 2024
Episode Overview:
This episode dives into two main topics: predicting the Buffalo Bills’ primetime games ahead of the NFL schedule release, and setting “realistic” expectations for the Bills’ revamped offense in the wake of Stefon Diggs’ departure. The hosts analyze scheduling trends, speculate on marquee matchups, and debate what fans should genuinely expect from Josh Allen and his supporting cast in 2024.

Main Themes & Purpose

• Primetime Schedule Predictions:
  The hosts lay out their picks and rationale for when, where, and against whom the Bills are likely to land high-profile night games next season.
• Realistic Offensive Expectations:
  With Diggs gone, the crew discusses what constitutes “fair” performance expectations for the major players (Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, etc.) in a changing offense and the unique challenges that come with replacing a number-one receiver.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bills’ Primetime Games: How Many and Against Whom?

• Expectation: Bills will get their “allotment” of primetime games due to Josh Allen’s star power, despite a less compelling home schedule.
  (03:13) "The Bills still have Josh Allen... they're going to get their allotment of night games." — Mike
• Primetime Opportunities: With Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night football, plus Thanksgiving and Christmas, the NFL has more slots to fill and the Bills remain a national draw.
• Road vs. Home Matchups:
  The road schedule provides more interest for primetime due to better matchups. (04:04, 12:41)
• Week 1 Prediction: Likely an "unsexy" opener, possibly Bills-Patriots at 1 PM, with bigger matchups saved for later (04:36).

Likely Primetime Opponents (Aggreement & Debate)

• Top Contenders (Texans, Ravens, Niners, Dolphins, plus either Lions or Jets)
  • "We're in agreement: Texans, Ravens, Niners, Dolphins are the primetime games." (14:40)
• Thanksgiving and Christmas: Hosts hope the Bills “avoid” these spots due to personal and logistical inconvenience, but acknowledge national appeal (08:06).

Notable Quote

• "As long as 17 (Allen) is running the show, they are a prime time darling. And he puts on a show." (17:57) — Mike

2. Which Matchups Have the Most National Buzz?

• Diggs vs. Bills Narrative (Texans Matchup):
  • National storyline looms large; a likely early season primetime game.
    • "This will be a primetime game; it needs to be in the first six weeks... It’s got to be fresh." (12:09) — Dan
• AFC East Showdowns:
  • Miami games remain valuable, despite some fatigue; always likely for primetime.
  • "Eagles and Cowboys play primetime every year." (07:07) — Mike

3. Realistic Offensive Expectations Without Diggs

The Challenge:

• Volume to Replace:
  Diggs’ 160 targets and 1,183 yards must be redistributed.
• Kincaid Pressure:
  Hosts warn against inflated expectations for Dalton Kincaid, emphasizing the rarity of 1,000-yard tight end seasons. (21:12, 27:30)
  • "That’s a lot to ask for a second year tight end to be the focal point..." (20:43) — Dan
  • "Maybe temper expectations. Maybe Kincaid's that guy." (28:01) — Mike

Who Steps Up?

• Curtis Samuel:
  Projected to outperform Gabe Davis by "doing it differently." Seen as a major addition, not a Diggs replacement but a vital, versatile part. (22:40)
• Route Distribution:
  Offense expected to be more “spread out,” with yardage and targets more evenly shared among Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid, but the hosts caution against assuming linear growth based on end-of-year surges.
• Efficiency Over Raw Numbers:
  Offense could be more efficient, even if Allen’s yardage dips; the hosts set the over-under at roughly 3,900 yards for Allen in 2024. (23:02)

Notable Quotes

• "If Josh wanted to spread the ball around, [he] could have last year. He didn’t. He still threw the ball 160 times to one guy." (20:42) — Dan
• "Progress isn’t linear... it's really easy to sit here and say, 'well, this guy [Shakir] will just have a thousand yards.'” (22:52, 26:50) — Dan

Schedule Impacts Offensive Growth:

• An easier early schedule would benefit a Bills team seeking offensive identity and cohesion with new pieces. (23:59–24:10)
• "It'd be good for the offense and the defense because I think this team, it will take a little while to gel." (24:10) — Mike

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Bills’ National Appeal:
  “They are a prime time darling...Josh [Allen] just puts on a show.” (17:57) — Mike

• On Kincaid Filling Diggs’ Void:
  “That’s a lot to ask for a second-year tight end to be the focal point of your passing game attack.” (20:43) — Dan

• On the Diggs-Texans Narrative:
  “This will be a primetime game and it will be in the first six weeks of the season.” (12:09) — Dan

• On Realistic Expectations:
  “Maybe temper expectations. Maybe Kincaid’s that guy.” (28:01) — Mike

• On Nationally Sexy Matchups:
  “You can make a case for a lot of these games... Dolphins, Ravens, Lions, Texans, Niners—these are the games where you do just feel like it feels like a night game.” (14:27) — Mike

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:23, 10:22, 11:11: Diggs trade/Texans matchup, national vs. local storyline
• 02:58–06:38: How the primetime schedule is decided; what counts as “night games”
• 07:07–07:25: Bills-Dolphins in primetime; parallels to other annual matchups
• 08:06–10:11: Thanksgiving and Christmas scheduling debate
• 12:55–14:40: Final primetime picks and divisional games
• 17:56–18:19: Allen’s star power, Bills as “prime time darling”
• 20:38–21:12: Diggs’ production and the pressure on remaining pass-catchers
• 23:35–24:18: Why early schedule is crucial for offensive development
• 27:30–28:04: The rare nature of 1,000-yard tight end seasons and why fans should “temper expectations” regarding Kincaid

Conclusion & Takeaways

• Bills to Feature Heavily in Primetime:
  Five night games expected, most likely against Texans (early for Diggs drama), Ravens, Niners, Dolphins, and Jets/Lions.

• New Look Offense Faces Questions:
  The offense must evolve without a true No.1 WR; expectations for Kincaid and Samuel should be “measured,” and overall production may spread out more.

• Patience Required:
  Team needs a soft early schedule to allow for offensive “gelling”; fans should moderate their statistical expectations for non-Allen skill players.

• National Interest Remains High:
  Bills are a ratings draw as long as Josh Allen is at the helm.

This episode is a must-listen for Bills fans who want a level-headed forecast of the team’s schedule advantages and learn what is realistic (and what isn’t) for Buffalo’s offense in the post-Diggs era.