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Value is great to an extent, but also it's like there's a reason why a Mercedes Benz costs so much more than everything else.
C
This wide receiver room is awful right now.
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It's that's bad for everybody that says first round wide receivers are bust. Wait and get them on day two. The hit rate is exponentially worse over the last four years of finding a starting wide receiver in day two than it is day one. This is the Buffalo plus podcast brought to you by Connors and Ferris.
B
All right, welcome Back to the Buffalo Plus YouTube channel, presented by Connors and Ferris, Mike Catalana, Dan Fates, I am Jenna Cottrell and we have made it Drum roll.
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Not too loud.
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Draft Week Sorry to Draft Week. Please be sure to like comment, subscribe and share if you enjoy our content. We're talking the Bills first round draft strategy. Maybe a later round pick that we want to hear the Bills call as well as what do we expect and if any team you think is going to do something insane coming up.
C
Oh, there'll be some dumb teams.
B
Yeah, yeah. There always is. There always is. Which is makes it fun. All right, let's start with the what we what do you want them to do? The Bills, Mike versus what you think they will do.
C
All right. So as it's gotten closer to the draft I have lost all patience and I want to see them trade up in the top 10 and get a dun. That's what I want to see. I I'm almost to your Mike Ditka thing of giving up the whole draft but I, I just, I see those kind of players and I think the fit and look any of the top three but I, I think it's going to be very very difficult to do it. But sometimes you said say to yourself like it's not for a quarterback but you have the quarterback.
A
Yeah.
C
It's it for somebody who can really make a difference for this offense. Yeah, I trust the Bills in many other ways. I trust them to coach up defensive backs. They have excellent linebackers even on the D line while they still need more pass rush. I just trust them to find ways to still be a really good defense.
A
Yeah.
C
I don't trust this wide receiver room and I they are in a. I'm sorry Brandon, it is a glaring hole that you need a number one receiver.
A
Yeah. I thought that was again we kind of talked about it like it's, it's a glaring hole there. There's no other way to get around it and they can spin it all. They want what I want to have happen and what I think are going to have happen have come. We. We've. They've split.
C
So let's start with just want.
A
What do I want? I want a Dunes A like I.
B
That's nailed it.
A
Thank you. That. That's what I want. I think. Yeah. I.
B
And he said it right.
A
Yeah. The salary cap isn't real. Trade draft capital isn't real. Just go up and get them. Just force the other team and. And that's. It's pretty simple. He's to me the most game changing alt while also like game altering while also being as safe as I can see wide receiver. Like when Matt Miller talks about him being like a Jamar chase comp like.
C
That and a hard worker team guy.
A
I know dog alpha, all of these things. I have true ex wide receiver.
C
Have you heard the negative on him?
B
No, no.
A
I don't think he has any.
C
And that doesn't mean that's a guarantee. But not hearing any of that on.
B
Him, that says a lot too.
A
Yeah.
B
And we learned this today. He is named Rome because his dad loved the Roman Empire and what essentially how much power that they had.
C
Yeah.
B
And that's why he's named Roma Dunze. So I think that's a fun fact, obviously. But.
C
And he said he thinks about the Roman Empire more than the average person.
A
Yeah.
C
He's asked about it and yes, he does think about it.
B
He does think about it more. But when I. We did this exercise a couple weeks ago, you and I Mike. You and me, Mike.
C
You and me.
B
You and me. And we talked about the Bills getting crazy, trading up and I said a trade with nine with Chicago and to go get that Washington receiver Roma Dunze.
C
Yeah.
B
And then it felt playful and fun and all these things. Now I'm like maybe it's not going to be Chicago, but I don't want to say we're all in agreement, but when you see the glaring need at wide receiver, you see the upside of a guy like Adunze, what he could add to that offense, the weapon he could be. And I always think back to when Brandon Beam would talk about, you know, Josh Allen and their fastball being his ability.
C
Yeah.
B
To have.
A
Yeah.
B
Competent wide receivers and the Bills throwing the ball and using that to excel and take advantage of their opponents. And when you look at what they have right now, there is so much opportunity and so much need to have someone, if not obviously more than one. And yeah, adun just fits that box.
C
All right, Dan, this is the perfect time then to go in to what I know you wanted to talk about with top 10 top draft wide receivers.
A
Yeah, I texted the group. Was it again on Sunday?
B
Yeah, it was yesterday.
C
Very excited.
A
I was very excited to podcast. Maybe it even meant Saturday night that I said, I just can't wait. I can't wait for the podcast again. I listened to the Moving the Sticks podcast. It's Bucky Brooks and Daniel Jeremiah, really smart guys. And they had talked about an article in the Athletic. Diana Rossini was part of it. And they had researched over the last 10 years the hit rate to bust rate of a wide receivers taken in the first round. And what they came up with was that 65% of the first round wide receivers were a bust. And they wanted to look into it and say like, hey, like, well, maybe let's just, let's just go year by year and kind of look more into that. So I highly recommend going to listen to it. It's about a 12 minute conversation. I thought it was very enlightening because they went back and looked at it because what we hear a lot about guys is just get a guy. J2 just, hey, you know, there's value in the bottom of the draft. Like, hey, you know, there's. You don't need to get a number one, a first round wide receiver. You don't, you don't have to look at this guy and they name, you know, this person and that person, you're like, okay. And they go back through it. So they left out the 2023 season because they thought that was still kind of an incomplete year. They're still trying to figure that out.
B
That's fair. Not enough data.
A
Yeah, yeah. So 2022, the first round draft picks, they, they went on hit or miss and they looked at Drake, London hit, Garrett Wilson hit, Chris Alave hit, Jameson Williams close, trending in the right direction. He's had injuries, he's had the suspension. Johan Dotson trending in the right way and Traylon Burks, who is a complete miss up to this point. And so they said, well, that's three home runs, a guy that's trending in the right direction. And Dodson and Williams, who has flash at the same time. So you'd say it's pretty good success at hitting Those guys in the first round.
C
Right. All I was going to add to that is what makes those guys really impressive. Drake London was playing for the Falcons.
A
Yeah.
C
Garrett Wilson was playing with Zach Wilson.
A
Yeah.
C
Chris Olave was playing in that mess of a Saints offense. Johan Dotson, in fairness to him, it's some moments in Washington, but. And Traylon Burks again, I don't know what the Titans have been doing in terms of so the success. Jameson Williams is the one that stands out a little bit because Detroit had a really good offense.
A
Yeah.
C
But he was all over the place. I still think he's got a nice upside to him.
A
Yeah.
C
But I love when guys outplay their quarterback and outplay their offense.
A
Absolutely. No question. So they went to the day two guys where they're like, hey, like, you know, again, we hear about that a lot. You don't need to take a wide receiver. Don't trade up. There's value in the second round. It's a deep wide receiver class. Right. We hear that. It's a deep wide receiver class. Day 2 of 2022 the court, the wide receivers taken Christian Watson. Eh. Like we're still trying to figure it out.
C
I And I think he's been helped by the better play of the quarterback later in the year.
A
Okay. So after that, Wandell Robinson, John Metchie, Taekwond Thornton, George Pickens, Alex Pierce, Skymore. Do any of those guys excite you at all?
C
The only one that stands out is Sky Moore because he was playing with Patrick Mahomes and because has been a disappointment. Right. That's what I'm saying. Is the rest of them, at least I would say George Pickens.
A
Pickens is the other one.
B
Yeah, that would be the one.
C
Tyquan Thornton playing in New England, bad quarterback play. John Mechi's interesting with the Texans.
A
Cancer.
C
Yeah, yeah.
A
He missed the whole season because of cancer.
C
Wanda Robinson. They have no. They had no quarterback and nobody around him. I'm not saying these guys can't play. They needed to be elevated by the quarterback and that's not there. Doesn't mean they're bus. But you're worried. Every one of those teams, except maybe the Steelers is worried about that guy.
A
And then you finish day, you know, the third round. Jalen Tolbert, David Bell, Danny Gray.
C
Ooh.
A
Like again, this thought that hey, you know this. This guy was a third round pick. Like, hey, Tyreek Hill was a fifth, sixth round pick. Like, be careful when you start thinking too much about you can get these guys on day two because they went into the 2021 draft. First round wide receivers, Jamar Chase, home run. Jalen Waddle, home run. Devonta Smith, just got paid. Home run, very successful. And then you have two swing and misses with Kadarius, Tony and Rashad Bateman. Okay.
C
And they stand out as rarities to go. I mean, listen, if you, if you're on the Kansas City Chiefs, I'm not saying you got to be a superstar, but he was a failure. That's on Kadarius, Tony. They picked the wrong guy because it hasn't worked.
A
I mean, Tony was the Giants.
C
Right. But I'm saying they ended up making a. They were with the Giants and then they came to Kansas City and was failing in Kansas City.
A
Correct.
C
Did catch the game winning touchdown. The Super Bowl. Yes. But the Giants were. The Giants were also a bad organization.
A
Absolutely.
C
And in Bateman, you know, and then there's the Moore and more.
A
So you had Elijah and Rond. Yeah. So day two of the 2021 draft. Elijah Moore, Rondell Moore, Dwayne Esridge, Tutu Atwell, Terrence Marshall, go to the third round. Josh Palmer, Diami Brown, Amari Rogers, Nico Collins.
C
Right.
A
And Anthony Schwarz.
B
Okay.
A
So for everybody that wants to say. And it. We. We'll get it. We will understand in the heat of the moment when the Bills take a wide receiver or somebody takes a wide receiver in day two and you go, I can't believe that guy. And then take a look back in two years and go, has he played?
C
Yeah.
B
What.
A
What team? If you want to talk about 2, 2atwell, like you want to talk about some of these guys were. Everybody wants to find Puka Nukua.
B
I was to say just wait till the fifth round.
C
Well, there are, there is something to be said for what Jenna just said. Because you're taking a flyer in the fifth round.
A
Yep.
C
Not hoping that the second or third round guy is going to make up for what you didn't get in the first.
A
Yeah.
C
You. Once you take the receiver in the first, Bean go flyer as much as you want. Take a fourth rounder, a fifth rounder, a seventh rounder. Because then you're. You're saying maybe we catch that.
A
Yeah.
C
But this wide, this wide receiver room is awful right now.
B
It's very bad. I wonder, though, Dan, how much you think Brandon Bean's perspective of like, okay, well, this guy's gonna play with Josh Allen and Josh Allen will elevate everyone's game. Do you think that that comes into his mind? Because I would imagine, like Sean McDermott coaching the defensive backs, all this stuff, like, all right, we got a guy, but I can coach him up. We got a guy. Josh Allen can make him better.
A
Yeah, I think that's. That's part of it. I think that's a little bit of. I think that's part of trading Stefan Digs away. I.
C
It's also a mistake.
A
I agree. Because we've talked about this.
C
Yes.
A
Where you act like any wide receiver that has a pulse that gets around a all pro caliber quarterback turns into an all pro wide receiver. And it's just not true. It's like we talked about the Chiefs, Marquez, Valdez, Scantling. Didn't all of a sudden become a great wide receiver with Patrick Mah Homes. It's not that simple.
C
That's why they move on from these guys. And by the way, the Chiefs know they won with great coaching. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelsey, playoffs defense.
A
Spagnolo.
C
Spagnolo. Now, Rasheed Rice was pretty good for them, but everybody else is just. Is just. And they are going to absolutely be in the market for a receiver.
A
And I just want to finish. I just want to finish the exercise they did on the Moving the Sticks. Move the Sticks podcast because I thought it was, again, really worth listening. 2019, there was only one wide receiver taken in the first round. It was by Baltimore.
C
Baltimore always takes receivers.
A
Yeah. It was Hollywood Brown. He was the only wide receiver ticket in the first round in 2020. That was the loaded wide receiver class. They couldn't believe it. Right. Henry Ruggs.
B
Yeah.
A
Omit him from this.
C
That's hard. It's hard to judge Jerry Judy.
A
Tough because he didn't excel in Denver, but he just got paid a big contract, so. So it is kind of weird. You're on your second team. I'd consider him a miss. CD Lamb. Home run.
C
Yeah.
A
Jalen Rager.
C
Big missed. Yeah.
A
Justin Jefferson, Brandon Iuk. Then this is where it gets somewhat tricky. The first two picks of round two of the 2020 draft were T. Higgins and Michael Pittman.
C
Yeah.
A
Those are hits. Okay. So. But again, those are the first picks of the. Of the second round.
B
So it's essentially the end of the first round in.
A
In my opinion, because then you have Levishka Chanel, KJ Hamler, Chase Claypool, Van Jefferson, Denzel Mims. Third round, Antonio Gibson, Lynn Bowden, Brian Edwards, Devin Duvernay.
C
It's. It's almost become like quarterbacks.
B
Yeah.
C
Because if you don't find them real early, so many always takes the flyer. Lamar was a good example. End of the Round but an aberration. Not the norm. And then the guys. Yes. And then the guys.
A
Yes.
C
That's what I.
A
Same thing.
C
Yes. The guys you take in the second round everybody would always point to Drew Brees was the second round pick.
A
Well how about this for you, Brock Purdy.
C
Yeah.
A
Just you can find quarterbacks the last pick of the draft. It's that simple. Like that's again what my big point has always been of trading up in the top 10 has been guys is I want to fish where the big fish are. That doesn't mean you can't hook a big 18 inch bass in some little random spot. But I want to fish where the fish are.
C
I want to cut.
A
I have never caught a single fish in my life.
B
Really?
A
One. One.
C
Yeah.
A
I did that and then I hooked my brother in law trying to get it off.
C
Nice.
A
Yeah.
B
Power.
C
I. I was on one of those big boats in Cape Cod.
B
Oh yeah.
C
And we were all on there fishing a lot and taken and my mother in law actually found a guy to help her and the guy was great. And she was just reeling in fish after fish and I was like dope sitting there. I did catch a few. They were. They were not record setting fish.
B
That's fantastic.
C
So that was the end of that. No, go ahead.
B
I think an important note when you talked about those second round guys that hit early on those or beginning of the second round. I think it is important to note that where the Bills stand right now in the second round. That's at 60.
A
Yeah.
B
Where you're looking at 34, 35, 36. Not waiting all the way to the end essentially of the second round.
C
Now it does leave them the option of saying if you have a mix of players there and somebody wants to come up, do you. Do you then get yourself into the early second round? Depending on how you look at it.
A
Like I just, I just want to say for everybody that says first round wide receivers are bust. Wait and get them on day two. The hit rate is exponentially worse over the last four years of finding a starting wide receiver in day two than it is day one. So don't get all of a sudden think of when they draft that guy in the second round. Go. Bill's got a steal. Historically it's probably not.
C
And I want to emphasize that the Bills are in need of a one. And you could make an argument a two, two, eight.
A
Yep.
C
Okay. Curtis Samuel has 317 catches in his NFL career for 3,383 yards. Neither of those numbers is in the top 50 of active players.
A
Is that bad?
C
Well, it's, it's when you look at how long players are in the league. He came into the league in what, 2018?
A
I think so.
C
Yeah. So that's a decent, you know, amount of time. The rest of the Bills roster, by far. Mac Hollins has the most catches, 131. Shakir's a new player. KJ Hamler's got 42 catches. Andy Isabella, 33 catches. Justin Shorter has none.
A
Thank you, Jenna. Check.
B
Yeah.
C
So when you look at this wide receiver room. Go ahead. I want to read your comments. Now, the Bills have a. I'd say arguably at the moment. I'll say bottom third. It might be a bottom five.
A
I agree.
C
Wide receiver room.
A
I'd say bottom five. It's probably bottom ten. If you want to include Kincaid if you want.
C
I'm just talking wide receiver, wide receivers.
A
It's got to be one of the five worst, right?
C
Doesn't mean it can't change a lot. I think it's still going to change a lot. But if you're kidding yourself if you don't think and listen, as good as Kincaid was last year, I think he's going to be even better this year. He's still a tight end. It's not. He is not a dynamic, game changing player. What Diggs used to be for the Bills.
A
Correct.
C
Okay, so stop kidding yourself. We hope Khalil Shakir, for the bill's sake becomes that guy. But we just had two years of waiting for Gabe Davis to do that. He didn't. There was no guarantee.
A
He.
C
He's shown a lot of signs, Jenna, of being really good.
B
But you don't know.
C
You know, I could use Dan's line about hope or whatever, but yeah, you know.
B
Well, also, just because player is good, progress is not always linear.
A
Yep.
B
You can, with extra pressure, maybe take a step back. Obviously you're pro hoping and projecting that he continues to take those steps forward. But you never know. Dan, to support what you were talking about earlier, you did a really great video with Matt Miller of espn. He's a draft analyst and he talked about how we say there's so much depth in this wide receiver class, but he made the analogy that it's like a teeter totter where there's so much talent and then it kind of drops off Y. So I think that is also something that we talk so much about. Maybe trade back, you can get more value, all that stuff. Value is great to an extent, but also it's like there's A reason why a Mercedes Benz costs so much more than everything else.
C
Value is like flexibility. What's the other phrase we use? Versatility.
A
I don't want it to be good to have. I don't want it to be your best trait.
B
Yeah.
C
No. You want your left tackle to be a left tackle.
B
Yeah, yeah.
C
He ain't playing any other place.
A
I don't want my third baseman also being a great second and shortstop.
C
It's like.
A
No, I want him to be a great third baseman.
B
Yes, exactly.
C
Yeah.
A
And that's the thing, is that when they're drafting at 60, whether or not what they do in the first round, we can talk about what we think, you know, coming up a little bit. But just the fact of at 60, it could be the 11th or 12th best wide receiver left. I mean, there. There could be seven that could go before the Bills at 28 or before 28. Let's just say that whoever's picking at 28, I think seven wide receivers could be off the board by then.
B
Yeah.
C
No question.
B
So. Oh, go ahead.
C
No, I was just going to say. And there you off. There is a series of receivers who are going to be on the board when the Bills pick at 28. I'm not telling them to be dumb and just take them because you feel that's my fear. But there is a place they have the assets to move up in the second round if they need to. So in terms of saying yes, either move back or move up. If you took a defensive end in the first round, but then moved up.
B
In the second round, we have booze on the hockeys.
C
I mean, if you're going to take, you know, LeGette or McConi or one of these guys, you may very well be able to feel comfortable either moving up in the second, taking the best defensive end you can get.
B
I see what you're saying.
C
And then moving up as opposed to just moving back and then waiting at 60 for. For either one of those positions.
B
So I see what you're saying.
C
So to have two picks in the top 37.
B
Yeah.
C
Or top 40.
A
I want one pick in the top 15. So do I. I don't give a.
C
Oh, I got a. I don't give a Now, too.
A
I don't give a bleep about 60. I don't. I. I don't give. I don't really care about next year's first.
B
I really don't like future Dan problem.
C
That's it.
A
Yeah, exactly.
B
Yeah. When we don't have to do this.
A
Yeah.
C
We're gonna Take draft week off.
A
Yeah, I, I just have, I, I have my worries that other teams have more ammo to go up ahead of the Bills when the run on wide receiver starts.
B
I think that's fair.
A
And the Bills could be looking at 28 going. Do we have a first round grade on lad McConkey? I think that's what they could be looking at because I think at 28, I think, I think the Chiefs could jump them. I think that Pittsburgh Indy, a lot of these teams that could, that need a wide receiver, maybe it's not their, their biggest need. Take wide receivers. And the Bills are caught without enough ammunition and without being wanting to put too much on the credit card. Like he said, he's just finally paid off his debts or is paying off the debts. Is he going to want to spend more draft capital in the future when he's just worked so hard to get it back to, to level four? That's my fear.
B
I feel like you still, I feel like you keep swinging though.
A
I agree.
B
We've seen being. I mean he traded the first round pick to get Stefan Diggs.
A
Trade a first round pick and go get Brandon Iuk.
B
I, I'm, I'm, I do feel like it's important to note it is smokescreen season. We heard from Bean last week. He literally said that wide receiver is not a glaring hole. Like, that's cute. But that's not the case.
C
I mean the reality is, as we were saying, when he says that, can you picture, you know, when you watch the movie Draft Day, Kevin Costner looks at his other guys on the staff and he goes, what's that GM's name in, in Jacksonville? Like, can you imagine? First of all, he leaves the room after he makes the first pick or makes the trade.
A
So you like the movie.
C
It's funny because I know some people that were in it and so do Bill's fans. But you, you think up to yourself, like, you have to be ready for anything that can happen in this, in this draft and they're ready for it. So while.
A
Because they're in the building.
C
But I'm sitting there thinking, you cannot.
B
So annoying.
C
You look, if they take a receiver too early, like if they take them at 28, that they think they could have gotten him at 34.
A
Yep.
C
Part of me just says take them at 28. Take him at 28. Do you know what I mean?
B
Like, yeah, it was like when I.
C
Say 34, like if you're going to trade back because there is teams to trade back with. So that's that's the only thing I'm sitting there thinking, like, you cannot be waiting until the 60th pick of the draft to take a wide receiver. Cannot do it with this current.
B
I don't expect that to be the case.
A
By the way.
C
The other thing I did was that's my fear. I looked at playoffs.
B
I. I really. I firmly don't believe that's going to.
C
Be playoff history for the Bill's current wide receivers. How many catches for all of them combined?
B
For all of them combined.
A
I won't even say.
B
Are we saying Josh Allen's tenure or like.
C
No. In their careers. Who are wide receivers. And this includes all of them. In fact, I will tell you, the Entire Group has 16 catches.
B
Wow.
A
Is that bad?
B
How many does Khalil Shakir have?
C
How many do you think he has?
A
Six. No, seven.
B
I was gonna say I might go a little higher than that.
C
Fifteen.
B
Wow.
C
In two years.
B
So he.
A
I was factoring in Kincaid. No, my brain. 15 melted for.
C
He has 15. Matt Collins has one.
A
Attaboy, Mack.
C
Curtis Samuels never played in the playoffs. And that was it for Mac.
A
How many for a shorter?
C
None so far. But it'll be.
B
What if he absolutely hits, though?
C
It would be fantastic. Touchdowns.
A
I'm gonna go back. If that happens, I'm gonna spend a week going back in every single one of these pods and clipping it.
C
Touchdowns for current wide receivers in the playoffs.
B
I mean. Well, you can't. No. None from Curtis Samuel. And then Shakir had. Was it two?
A
Very good.
C
You. That's it. Two. By the way. And I want to say this to Bill's fans, if you are. Again, I'm. I'm addressing this directly. If this was the wide receiver room, like kind of is for the Patriots, not much different, but for the jets or the Dolphins, you would be laughing at them. You would say, look at this wide receiver.
B
That's actually fair.
C
And this is not about these individual guys. But I'm talking about. We're talking about.
A
Well, you're asking them and to play over their skis that they.
C
Now, in Curtis Samuel's case, I do think he's. He's never had a very good quarterback, at least a little bit of Cam when he started. But you and I think he can be better.
A
Correct. But if you put Khalil Shakir right now on 17 other teams, he's maybe their third best wide receiver still.
C
Second. It could be second on some teams.
A
Yeah. I just think that's.
C
But hey. But again, it's asking every one of them to do more than they've ever done in their career.
A
Yes.
C
And that's every fill from the top. Everyone you got to fill from the top.
A
And I got a buddy who played college football in the ACC and just the fact he to talk about exceptions and he said one of his coaches when they were going through the recruiting process talked about quoted Bill Parcells.
C
Oh yeah.
A
And the quote was keep making exceptions and the next thing you know you'll have a team full of exceptions. So if you keep sitting there and saying I read Shield Kapadia did another great article about like the 6 things you have to every GM needs to avoid and one of the things was thinking that your guy is different that this. Oh he. There is so much metrics in data and they track every first round pick and whether it's you know, an offensive tackles arm length.
C
That's a perfect example.
A
They track quarterbacks hand sizes. And if you think this guy's different historically, he's probably not different. So an example for me is Xavier worthy. Like everybody says he's so thin and like you could have a guy like Devonta Smith be successful. I think Devonta Smith is the exception.
C
Oh yeah.
A
He is not the norm for a wide receiver playing at that size. And if you constantly think like these guys are he's it's an exception. This guy's an exception. Like no, you're going to end up with a bunch of guys that are in over their heads because they don't fit what they need to be.
B
I hear you the general ruling of like you can't make an exception for everyone. I just feel like for the Bills like Josh Allen is kind of the exception because coming out people were like there's no way bingo that he is going to be.
C
And all the other one basically all.
A
The other ones have failed 100%. Bill's fans should know this more than anybody. It's a great point. Josh is an exception.
B
Yes.
A
He is a quarterback that has become more accurate from his college days to the NFL. That is an exception. That is not the norm. Brock Purdy and Josh Allen are exceptions. Yeah, that's it. So how many exceptions are you allowed to have on your roster? I guess I would ask Bills fans. That's fair because otherwise get guys that make like I said I love A.D. mitchell.
B
See but here's my thing is I look at a guy like Tremaine Edmonds who had all the intangibles.
A
What's wrong with Tremaine?
B
I mean Tremaine's fine.
A
He's fine.
B
He's. He's fine. I feel like. No, he's not. He's. He's not a boss. But I also feel like what you were expecting to get in a first round guy. I guess. Yeah. I feel like you always wanted him to take that next step.
A
Absolutely.
B
And just because you are physically gifted in some ways doesn't mean like you're gonna instinctively get.
A
Yeah.
B
The other things.
A
Yeah.
B
It's so hard. But this is the thing. You're projecting so much and it's very hard. That's very hard to do.
C
Well, you err on the side of the physical traits most of the time.
A
Yeah.
C
But sometimes you can. You can be fortunate in that case. I just think that the need is so great at this position specifically. Yeah. I mean, so that's why I'm saying, not a glaring. Can't you just see, like Douglas, they're all sitting there going, I don't know what the Bills are going to do. They don't need. They don't need. I mean, the one position, everybody's saying, well, they're not drafting a quarterback in the first round.
B
Yeah.
C
And you know what I mean? Like, they just look at them. Like, you even said, would they ever take an offensive tackle? I don't think this is the year they would do it. But they have Dion and Spencer Brown. I'm saying is there's certain things, but sometimes teams prioritize those things and say, this guy could play guard, force and move to tackle. Like, there's certain things. You're talking about filling the roster here. We're not even. I. Yes. And I want this. My point is fill it from the top. So.
B
Okay, wait. So what we talked about what we want them to do. What do you think they actually will do on Thursday night in the first round? Dan, I'll start with you.
A
I've been going through like the sages of grief and acceptance.
C
Okay.
B
Wow.
A
You. I want to trade up. Yeah. I want to trade up in the top 10. The more I'm coming to it. I know the Bills, I think they believe that Josh can turn water into wine a little bit.
C
Yeah.
A
And to that I say Gabe Davis didn't pan out like he. And to that I'd say Marquez Velda's scant like Patrick Mahomes didn't make Marquez Velda scantling to a guy. I think that a bunch of other teams will be more aggressive than the Bills because I think out of all the years, while I know Bean loves to trade up, I just see him Being a little bit more conservative this year. That just has been his approach through this offseason. I don't know if he then puts all of his chips in that he just got back and saved and pushes them back into the middle to make.
B
A pick he's anything like me.
A
I would, too.
B
Paid off my credit card bill. Yeah, let's slam that.
A
Let's go shopping. I don't know if that's the case. And so my thing, I. It's kind of my fear. I think that the Bills get leapfrogged by a bunch of teams. I think that the Chiefs, again, teams that have more ammo, get ahead of the Bills. The Bills are kind of stuck at 28. Is this kind of why I see it? They take cornerback Cooper DeJean.
B
Wow. That I was not expecting.
C
All right, we're going to have a bet on that.
B
Is that who you're taking? Okay.
C
I think.
A
I hope they take. I liked. I would. I hope they would take Brian Thomas. They trade up for Brian Thomas or trade up for A.D. mitchell? Because I don't think either of them are there at 28. If they are there at 28, I think they take Cooper DeJean.
C
So I will say this, since it's an unfair bet, I'm betting you I'll give you a case of whatever beer you want, a six pack of whatever beer I want that they do not take Cooper DeJean in the first round.
A
Okay. What happens if he's off the board.
C
Before the Bills bets off?
A
Okay.
C
If he's on the board and the.
A
Bills are at 28, you pick the beer.
C
I don't care what it is, you get a case.
B
Wow. That's the first wager of the Buffalo plus.
C
Yes, you get a case. I get a six pack. Because it's one guy in the whole draft. It'd be hard to make that.
B
What's your beer?
A
Jenny Light. We'll just keep it simple.
B
I was just.
C
I figured really don't pick whatever you want.
A
Not Jenny Light. He's a sponsor. Not a sponsor. Wish it was, but could be, but wish it was. They love Iowa guys.
B
They do.
A
Small town, versatile, could play safety. Can play corner.
C
That's why you worry about it. Too versatile for me for the first round, but.
A
He's a freak. He's a freak. Okay.
B
All right. Michael, what are you doing?
C
All right. So I think, honestly, I. I said I have them trading up to 22 with the Eagles now. Now, you know, who knows where. Howie, he loves to move up as much as Bean does, but I see them. If Brian Thomas gets close to them. I do see them making a move. And it would be fitting to use that Minnesota number two.
A
Yeah.
C
That you got for Diggs to go get your next guy. That is a very valuable pick. That is a high two in most people's mind for next year. And they'd still have the one in the two if they move up. Go ahead.
A
We were talking about this before. Brian Thomas may be the most tough to project. I've seen him as high as 12. I've seen him at 28.
C
I've seen him at 10. The jets taken him at 10. Yes.
A
Just wild to think about again because his. When. When do you pull the trigger?
C
Where he was in the LSU offense.
A
Yeah.
C
So it's. It's a bit of a projection, but the physical skills. Absolutely there.
A
That's my dream.
C
I think he fits. I think he fits for them.
A
Brian Thomas is my dream for the Bills. I would be very happy with outside of a dunze.
B
Yeah. I was gonna say. I was like. I don't think you're characterized a dunesay is your dream. But if you. You shoot for the stars and you land amongst.
C
Is it brunette?
B
Yes. Yeah.
C
Brian Thomas is a blonde.
B
It's a blonde.
A
Is yellow.
C
Yes.
A
That's it. That's it.
B
What is it? Yeah. So if you shoot for the moon and you land amongst the stars, you'll get Brian Thomas.
A
Yeah. And then I'll take A.D. mitchell as a consolation.
C
Yeah.
A
And I think they end up with Cooper who visited them for a top 30 visit.
B
Yes.
C
Now I'm. They.
B
They did all. They did 30.
A
Yeah.
B
Top 30 visits.
C
I will say be prepared. If it gets to 28 and there's nobody that they love. There will be teams like I think Washington, I think even Denver. There's going to be teams looking to trade up that Bo Nix is out there. Unless one of these teams takes them early that it would be. You would be so ticked off to watch the whole first round. No pick, moving back to early in the second and taking a wide receiver. Then I could see. I there's. I'm telling you it could happen.
A
It'd be a really easy day for us in Buffalo. We'd be out there chilling and cracking a beer and be like that was actually.
C
Nothing would change. You just wouldn't be talking about a player.
B
Yeah.
C
You still have to be working.
B
That's true. But like it'd be way less. Way less intense.
A
I. I'm just. Our post round one draft recap would be real short Video on the.
C
You would be ripping them because the Chiefs traded ahead of them.
A
Facts.
B
Yeah.
C
Otherwide receivers.
B
What are they doing? Damn. Would have to make another pod the next day because he's like I did last year.
A
I just didn't like Duncan Cade because I was like, just think of him as a wide receiver. It's like you drafted a slow white wide receiver.
C
So what if you trade up in the second round and you take Cooper Dean in the first and Lad Monkey in the second?
A
It'd be wild.
B
That would be wild.
A
I think I love Javon Baker at 60. I'll say that. I love. I love.
C
Already gotten rid of the six. You said you don't care about the 60th pick if.
A
If it gets me my brunette.
C
Javon Baker may be one of those guys on your list when you look back at the draft.
A
Absolutely.
C
Right.
B
Yeah.
C
But he's not a guy that's even been projected. He's. That's where he's sort of been. So transferred from Georgia to ucf, right? Yeah. Where your favorite receiver was from.
A
Guys Jersey hanging behind me. It's not. It's not. If this is your first time coming to the Buffalo Plus YouTube channel. It's not.
C
Okay.
B
It's not. What if the Rams did the hilarious thing and traded out of the first round and the Bills traded up with them? Hey, look to 19. Or they switched or swapped.
C
Honestly, I also could see the Rams as being one of those teams that takes a flyer on a quarterback later. I mean, if Carson wants us, they're back up. I mean, they're just filling holes, you know, until they get a guy. Yeah, they could. There's nothing saying they could. They could also go defensive end, defensive line. I mean, that's. There's a lot of team. This Drake, this draft has a series of guys on the line of scrimmage like Murphy. What's the kid from Latu you're talking about? Players like that that there's a lot of teams that are going to be interested in. And then there's a series of receivers and there's a series of offensive linemen. What? What are you laughing about?
B
Not you.
A
No.
B
Wait. My pick. I didn't say my pick. So they traded up for a bit. They traded up two spots for Dalton. Kincaid traded up a little bit to get. I literally like my. My brain bean is traded up four times in five drafts. I'm trading up a little bit. I think I had it before being with the Cowboys at 24 or even.
A
They're going to be A lot of people that want that 24th pick.
B
I. I agree.
C
Yeah.
B
And the Cowboys 22 with the Eagles.
C
Yeah. The Cowboys need extra picks, I think.
A
I agree.
C
Yeah.
B
Trying to, like.
C
But you look at the guys who would be there.
B
Who would Josh Allen want? So Josh Allen told us last week that before the draft last year, he texted Bean on draft day and just texted him, Dalton Kincaid.
C
Okay. So I think that played out as they showed him Dalton Kincaid. He looked at a lot of Dalton Kincaid and then said, God, oh, yeah, I like Duncan Kincaid.
B
Yeah. I'm not saying he was like, yes.
C
That's what I mean is.
B
But I'm. I'm imagining they're showing him, like, three. Three to four players, and then he'll probably do the same thing of, like, the text of who.
C
Okay. So in my list for those guys that will be available somewhere near them is Justin Thomas, A.D. mitchell, Brian Thomas. I, Justin Thomas, offer A.D. mitchell, Xavier Worthy, lad McConkey. Xavier. Xavier LeGette.
B
I do like A.D. mitchell.
C
Andy Mitchell. Yeah.
A
I'm a little worried about Legat. I know a lot of people like him. I know that South Carolina didn't have a quarterback for most of his career. Great accent, great guy. Just doesn't. To me, he doesn't change the game.
B
Yeah, it's fair. Or maybe not, but I would have.
A
Liked Legat if Diggs was still on the roster.
B
That's fair.
A
Like. Like, I think they would have complemented each other.
B
Right. Yeah, I could see that.
A
I don't think Leggette doesn't bring enough sizzle. I think that there's enough.
B
What about Xavier Worthy?
A
That speed, he's like 145 pounds.
C
Yeah.
B
That's fair. Again, could he be that exception?
C
DeSean Jackson is that exception. Small, incredibly fast exception.
A
Exception. Be wary of the exception. And when you're talking to your friends on draft night, remind them Bill Parcell said, keep making exceptions, and the next thing you know, you'll have a team full of exceptions.
C
I bet you.
B
I don't think that's as, like, damning as you think it is.
A
It ain't a compliment.
B
I just don't think it's as damning.
A
As, like, I. I think it.
C
I think it is. I think there are times when teams. You can. You could do that five times. Five times is too many.
A
Yeah.
C
Once, maybe twice.
A
And you have to hit, like, again.
B
Well, there's a lot of pressure on this draft.
A
You have. You make your money again. To your point, Mike. You swing and miss in round five. Justin Shorter, another Reference. If you swing and miss, it's fine. It's a fifth round pick.
C
No, no.
A
Nobody's going to go back to 20, 24 and go, can't believe being drafted. This guy in the fifth round.
C
It's when you look at the take a shot picks, the time you notice that is when you see two guys in front of him or right behind him that you go, oh, my God.
B
They could have had this guy that.
C
You know, those teams took a flyer too. Yeah, there's on Newton too. Defensive tackle, Illinois.
B
Gosh.
C
They could do it.
B
Cooper.
C
Cooper De Jean, that.
B
Okay, so Cooper DeJean, that's who I.
A
Think I, I want. What I want is separate.
B
I think A.D. mitchell, I'm with.
C
If they stay at 28, I think A.D. mitchell could be their guy.
A
I don't think Mitchell gets to 28.
B
That's why I, I have them.
C
Well, that leads into Michael said, if.
A
You stay at 28, I was okay. I'm yelling at him, not at you.
B
I feels like you're yelling at them. That's like you did a mic.
C
I yell at them for things they didn't say.
B
We'll read a text to Mike and I'll be like, well, what? What do you mean? What about this? And it's like, it's not even a text.
A
It's a tweet.
C
Yes.
A
That somebody will read it and he'll go, well, Jenna, that's just stupid. I did.
C
I didn't write it. You mean like the guy tweeting, trade Brandon ayuk for the fourth pick and have the Niners take Marvin Harrison Jr. Yeah. If you're sitting there with the fourth pick, why would you.
B
Yeah.
C
Not just take Marvin Harrison Jr. On a rookie contract. But people throw that. So I'm not made at you guys.
B
Yeah, it sounds like it. Okay. A name of a guy. Name a guy. Sorry, someone that you. A name you want to hear in the later.
C
He's in my mock draft. Isaac Garendo, Louisville. I got him at 144, was at Wisconsin. Fastest guy at the combine for the running back position. Has patience as a runner. And you know who loves him? Baldy loves him. Brian Baldinger loves him. Has him as one of his sleepers in the draft. I think he's got size. He's 6ft 222. I talked about a little bit in the mock draft and he does run. It's a rare thing to see with a back. He has speed, but he runs with patience. And I think in a later round like that that's the kind of guy that would be a good compliment to James Cook.
A
Mike McShay there.
C
Look at that.
A
Just dropped like. That was a full on. Like. Yeah, Quick hit on espn.
C
You got it.
B
He's more of a. Mel Kuiper.
C
Yes.
A
Did you take Isaac?
C
I'm not doing my Kuiper.
A
Daniel Flournoy, the wide receiver out of Southeast Missouri directional school. Yeah. Crazy story. The Bills brought him in on a 30 visit. Just a guy that I would take a shot on in day three. Yeah, I think it's worth taking a shot in day three. A guy that has battled some injuries, has played in every single lower level that you could play in Besides, you know, D1 football. I take a shot of him because a lot of his skills I think translate. And he tore it up at the Senior Bowl. That was when he started to get all the attention. I'll take a shot on him again.
C
And he has the. He's physically has the traits of a. Of a higher draft.
A
Yes. Yeah, Give me a wide receiver trade up. Get a wide receiver in the first round if you can and then give me Flournoy in the. In day three.
C
Yeah, okay.
B
I liked him. I also like Jermaine Burton out of Alabama. He's about 6 foot, but he's. He's got some quick speed, that type of stuff, strong yak.
C
He's also, again, I've read some things. I don't know the specifics of it. There were some off the field concerns with him. Yeah, but sometimes that's just out there. Guys drop again in a later round. It's less of a.
B
Yes, I agree.
C
Circumstance for a team to take a flyer.
B
Yeah. Okay, team. We think that's going to do something crazy in round one.
C
I don't know if it's crazy, but I think Denver is one of the dumb organizations in the NFL.
B
Just trade for Zach Wilson.
C
Is Zach Juggernaut.
A
Yeah.
C
Dan's one of Dan's favorite players in the NFL. Jared Stidham. Remember when he was the choice of all the Patriots? Stidham looks good.
A
Oh, yeah.
C
As Stidham looks, the reports coming out, wow.
A
Man, he looks got the respect of his teammates. This guy said it.
C
Yeah. And who's there? Oh, and then they have Ben Denucci, of course.
A
Yeah, yeah.
C
That's their quarterback. They're sitting there at 12. This year is a terrible year for them and they could if they were smart. I don't think they're going to sacrifice even more draft capital that they've already given up for Russell Wilson, they would trade back. Not necessarily a terrible place for Bean to be looking if he wants to move up.
A
That was my first. That was why I talked to Matt Miller.
C
Yeah. Not, not a bad place. Just feel like they do some weird stuff. You look at guys like Bo Nix, J.J. mcCarthy, Michael Penix, I think teams are going to draft him too early. I think it's going to be after the first couple of quarterbacks are gone. They just feel like they got to make a move. So I just think Denver's made so many dumb moves. They could do something off the board here a little bit. Smart move for them is probably to trade back.
A
Yeah. I think talk about poorly run franchises and organizations. I feel like Jacksonville is always in the loop for to do something stupid and the team that I think could. Could ruin some. It's nothing new. I think the Chiefs can ruin the Bills.
B
Yeah, I was thinking of that.
A
They've got more. That's the team that I'm thinking of that has more ammunition. They have the third round pick this year. They, they're going to get a comp pick next year for Snead. Like they're like they're going to. They have more cards in their deck right now to get to Dallas, to get to Denver. If they need a wide receiver.
C
It just. Yes. A little bit has been their history. I don't know. You're right. They. They might do that.
A
McDuffie.
C
They jump.
B
Yeah, I agree Dan.
A
That's tough.
C
You got a dumb team.
A
That's tough. When you have to agree with me.
C
I say dumb team. It's usually when they do something strange that can either help or hurt.
B
Yeah, that's fair. No, I mean I, I figured I, I agree with you Dan. I figured it would be something like the Chiefs and I shouldn't say crazy but just like you kind of talked about they had the capital to kind of move up and go where they wanted to. Trent McDuffie is a great example of last year. Them kind of swoop two years ago swooping in and taking a guy that you think the Bills really would have wanted so man could add Trent McDuffie rather than.
C
So do you. Do you have a team?
B
I was saying the Chiefs.
C
Oh you were saying the Chiefs. You're saying is them to move up and the other one is the Giant. I don't love what. I don't love what the Giants have done. I was Joe Shane off the Bean tree here but man they're sitting there. I hope they enjoyed a couple of wins down the Stretch. Boy, it would have been nice for them to be in the top to get a quarterback. I don't know if they're ready to step up and go get one. You have a feeling they're going to just ride this thing again.
B
What do you think about the Saints?
C
Well, they always do a lot of. They do a lot of dumb stuff. That's true. You never know what they're going to do.
B
Yeah.
C
And when I say this, it's like usually what you want. You want a team like that to take a player that. I mean, it's hard. The bills are at 28. We've talked about. It's a terrible spot to be.
B
I remember we were in Nashville. No. Was it Nashville? Daniel Jones.
C
The whole room was like.
B
The whole room we were in. We were in the auxiliary media tent. And the Giants picked Daniel Jones and people were flat out screaming and laughing.
C
Yeah. Yeah.
B
We were all like, oh, my God.
C
But they've stuck with him again. This will be year three. I don't know. In New England. Who knows what New England's going to do. Supposedly now they're looking to trade back. Man, you got to get a quarterback at some point. So I don't know. It'll be. The division itself is going to be really interesting.
A
Y.
C
Mostly with the jets sitting there at 10.
B
The Jets, I think, will.
C
They need offensive line too, so, you know, we'll see.
B
The Bears, though, maybe move back.
C
Yeah. Unless a dun is sitting there. They're going to take them.
A
Yeah.
B
As a tear falls from Dan Fates's face.
C
Yeah.
B
Okay. That's. We're going to have plenty more draft coverage. Please be sure to like, comment. Comment. Subscribe as well.
A
Draft show Thursday.
B
We have our draft show on Thursday at 7:30.
A
We'll be up there.
B
Park people get mad. It's not up. It's over. It's.
C
Who gets mad?
B
People be like, orchard park is not up. I've had people email me that.
C
Really?
B
Yeah. I get a lot of emails.
A
You do?
C
Were you wearing all your makeup when you did that?
B
Yes. So we'll have the show on Thursday. Then we'll have a recap of what the Bills did on in the first round. You can find that on the Buffalo plus channel. Friday, Saturday. Saturday. Bills with 10 total picks heading in. 28th overall to start. If they stay there. Yeah. All right. For Dan and Mike. I'm Jenna. Thank you for joining us. Please be sure to share this podcast if you enjoyed our content. Unlike comments, subscribe. How many are we at?
A
Just shy of 30. 1.
B
That's awesome. Wow. Unison. All right, thanks for watching. We'll catch you next time here on Buffalo Plus. Dan, don't break the equipment.
A
Buffalo plus, your interactive look at the week in football, brought to you by Connors and Ferris.
Episode: The Buffalo Bills DRAFT PLAN: What they SHOULD DO, what they WILL DO and be AWARE of 'EXCEPTIONS'
Date: April 23, 2024
Hosts: Mike Catalana, Jenna Cottrell, Dan Fetes
This episode dives deep into the Buffalo Bills’ draft strategy ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft, exploring what the team should do, what they are likely to do, and the pitfalls of making too many roster “exceptions.” The Buffalo Plus team—Mike Catalana, Jenna Cottrell, and Dan Fetes—leans on years of Bills coverage to break down the needs at wide receiver, analyze wide receiver draft value, debate potential trade-up scenarios, and discuss the potential for other teams to disrupt Buffalo's plans.
On Why Value Isn’t Everything
Jenna: “Value is great to an extent, but also it’s like there’s a reason why a Mercedes Benz costs so much more than everything else.” (19:18)
On Bean’s Trust in Josh Allen
Mike: “You act like any wide receiver... gets around an all-pro caliber quarterback turns into an all-pro wide receiver. And it’s just not true.” (12:24)
The Exception Fallacy
Dan: “If you constantly think these guys are an exception, no—you’re going to end up with a bunch of guys that are in over their heads.” (28:03)
Playoff Experience Lacking
Mike: “The entire [Bills WR] group has 16 [playoff] catches.”
Jenna: “Wow.”
Mike: “Khalil Shakir has 15.” (24:45)
On Pressure This Draft
Jenna: “There’s a lot of pressure on this draft.” (41:21)
This episode offers Bills fans a clear-eyed, no-holds-barred evaluation of the most important draft for Buffalo’s offense in years—don’t plan on waiting until Day 2.