Buffalo Plus: Uncle Dan's BEST BETS – Week 2
Date: September 13, 2025
Host: Dan Fetes (Uncle Dan)
Featured on: Buffalo Plus YouTube channel
Episode Overview
In this episode of Uncle Dan's Best Bets, Dan Fetes returns with his top eight NFL betting picks for Week 2, looking to rebound from a tough opening weekend. Broadcasting from Buffalo Plus's brand new Connors and Ferris studio, Dan gives listeners his reasoning, analytics, and trends for each pick, discussing over/under angles, sharp money insights, and lessons learned from Week 1. The tone is candid, irreverent, and optimistic, setting up a fun and insightful ride for fans of the Bills and NFL betting alike.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Bouncing Back from a Rough Week 1
- Dan openly addresses his poor Week 1 record, going 2–7.
- “Was not great last week, guys. Hand up. My bad, not good.” (00:47)
- Brings energy in the new studio, promising a better outcome:
- “I’m gonna guarantee it. We’re gonna have a winning week this week. If not, I’ll give all my picks away for free next week. How about that for you?” (01:27)
- Introduces his eight picks for Week 2, highlighting a clear theme: loving the "over" due to early-season defensive fatigue.
2. Week 2 Betting Philosophy: Chasing Overs
- Cites the annual phenomenon of sore defenses and rhythm-building offenses:
- “Teams will never be more sore, defenses will never be more tired... I feel like [offenses] have the advantage.” (02:05)
- Acknowledges the lack of historical data but trusts his gut and recent trends.
3. Uncle Dan's Eight Picks & Rationale
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Each pick comes with rationale—based on trends, sharp money, gut instinct, and occasionally a touch of “weirdness.”
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Pick Breakdown:
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Cowboys -4.5 vs. Giants (03:34)
- Cites Dallas’s domination under Dak Prescott: 13–0 straight up, 11 wins by 5+ points.
- Dallas has extra rest from playing Thursday night.
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Bengals -3.5
- Dismisses the Jaguars’ Week 1 success as a “jitters” anomaly for Cincy.
- “This is just, I don’t buy the Jaguars. Bengals maybe just had the jitters... I think it’s just the monkey off their back.” (05:06)
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Patriots/Dolphins Over 43.5
- Predicts bad defenses and enough offense from both sides.
- “The Dolphins may have quit this early in the season but I’ll wait a week... I like points in that game. Show me something.” (06:08)
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Lions -6.5 vs. Bears
- Praises “smart money” (14% bets vs. 82% of the money).
- Likes Lions rebounding at home after bad loss.
- “Dan Campbell coming back home after kind of getting punched in the mouth…” (07:18)
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Denver -1.5 at Colts
- Classic overreaction spot: Denver looked bad, Colts looked great, so public expects easy Colts win.
- Sharp money leans Denver; host trusts the Broncos' defense to rebound:
- “I think Denver just... That’s as bad as Denver can play. They’re a really good team. Really good defense.” (08:51)
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Falcons +3.5 at Vikings
- Fading public enthusiasm after Minnesota and Colts' good Week 1.
- Points to sharp money (Falcons: only 21% of bets, but 60% of money).
- “We go back the other way. That’s where we take the Falcons to get a win.” (10:25)
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Bills at Jets Over 46.5
- Sees both offenses putting up points due to possible tired defenses, especially the Bills.
- “Bill’s offense, the way they got rolling in that second half... I like a lot of points in that game.” (11:09)
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Khalil Shakir Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
- Expects more opportunities for Shakir against Jets, with Keon Coleman drawing Sauce Gardner.
- “Shorter throws underneath. Khalil Shakir is gonna make his money.” (12:23)
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4. Trends and Analytics: Finding Sharp Money
- Dan spotlights games where the betting handle (total money) outweighs actual bet volume—a sign of smart, big-bet money.
- Multiple picks (Lions and Falcons) are backed by this trend, as Dan says, “We’re using data analytics.” (09:55)
5. Memorable Quotes and Humorous Moments
- Opening honesty: “Yeah, that sucked.” (00:00)
- On betting trends: “Maybe a sickness. Maybe a sickness.” (04:58)
- “This is an overreaction spot... That wasn’t necessarily a compliment to the Colts, but more of an indictment on how bad Miami was.” (08:51)
- On wanting a winning week: “We’re gonna christen this podcast studio with some wins in week one–two. It’s [the] first week in the studio. You know what I mean?” (13:30)
6. Buffalo Bills Focus & Locker Room Vibe
- Gives insider info: Bills had “a walkthrough on Thursday,” maybe signifying recovery mode.
- Expresses some concern for Buffalo's defense, but bullish on their offense against the Jets.
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
- “Teams will never be more sore, defenses will never be more tired... I feel like [offenses] have the advantage.” – Dan, (02:05)
- “I’m gonna guarantee it. We’re gonna have a winning week this week. If not, I will give all my picks away for free next week.” – Dan, (01:27)
- “Dallas are 13 and 0 straight up in Dak Prescott’s last 13 starts against the Giants.” – Dan, (03:34)
- “Show me something. Show me some offense.” – Dan, (06:47)
- “Dan Campbell coming back home after kind of getting punched in the mouth by the Packers.” – Dan, (07:18)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:00 – Quick reaction to the previous week, “Yeah, that sucked.”
- 01:20 – Dan’s promise for a winning week.
- 03:15 – Start of official picks breakdown.
- 03:34 – Cowboys -4.5 vs. Giants analysis.
- 04:58 – Bengals -3.5 analysis (“Maybe a sickness…”).
- 06:08 – Patriots/Dolphins Over 43.5 (“Show me something…”).
- 07:18 – Lions -6.5 vs. Bears.
- 08:51 – Denver -1.5 analysis (“Classic overreaction spot…”).
- 10:25 – Falcons +3.5 pick (“We go back the other way…”).
- 11:09 – Bills/Jets Over 46.5.
- 12:23 – Khalil Shakir Over 45.5 Receiving Yards.
- 13:30 – Closing remarks, new studio optimism.
Uncle Dan’s Best Bets (Week 2 Recap)
- Cowboys -4.5 vs. Giants
- Bengals -3.5
- Patriots/Dolphins Over 43.5
- Lions -6.5 vs. Bears
- Denver -1.5 at Colts
- Falcons +3.5 at Vikings
- Bills/Jets Over 46.5
- Khalil Shakir Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Final Thoughts
Dan’s humor, self-deprecation, and clear love for betting and the Bills shine through. For those seeking actionable advice and authentic, WNY-flavored NFL coverage—with a heavy dash of stats and sharp trends—this episode sets an energizing tone for Week 2.
“We’re gonna win money this week. I can feel it.” (13:00)
To hear more or join the conversation, catch Uncle Dan’s Best Bets weekly on Buffalo Plus YouTube channel.