Loading summary
Will Salatin
Hey, everybody.
Lady Luck
Lady luck here. And we're celebrating America's 250th birthday. Now, all summer long, I'm going to be celebrating by playing on spinquest.com which is an American owned social casino. It obviously features over a thousand slot games and live blackjack, live craps, live bubble craps. Head on over to spinquest.com get yourself a $30 coin pack for just 10 bucks.
Sam Stein
Spin Quest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited.
Spinquest Announcer
Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Autotrader Announcer
Are you really buying a car online on Autotrader right now? Really? At a playground?
Lady Luck
Yeah, really?
Autotrader Announcer
Look at these listings from dealers. Wow, your search can really get that specific.
Lady Luck
Really?
Autotrader Announcer
And you just put in your info and boom, car's in your budget.
Sam Stein
Mom needs a second.
Autotrader Announcer
Honey, you can really have it delivered.
Lady Luck
Really? Or I can pick it up at the dealership.
Sam Stein
One sec, sweetie.
Autotrader Announcer
Mommy's buying a car.
Sam Stein
Mommy, look.
Autotrader Announcer
I think kid is walking up the slide again.
Lady Luck
Really? Auto trader, buyer, car online. Really?
Sam Stein
Hey, everyone, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the Bulwark. And I'm here with Will Salatin for another Sunday special. Will is our designated survivor, which by that I mean if we need someone to watch the Sunday shows, Will's our guy.
Will Salatin
And I survived them. I survived him again.
Sam Stein
Yes, and you survived them. You deserve some sort of hazard pay. I think today was kind of a big day because this was the first day of talks between the Iranians and the US Delegations in Switzerland, mediated by the Qataris, and then I think the Pakistanis are there too. It's hard to sort of make out what exactly is going on because there's conflicting reports about whether the talks were shambolic or they're just ongoing. But they started in very typical fashion. And by that I mean Donald Trump decided to roll a grenade, unpin it, and then roll it into the middle of it. I'm gonna play for you a news interview that Trey Angst of Fox News did based off of a phone conversation that he had with Trump. The context here is that the Iranians are upset with what's going on in Lebanon still because the Israelis are continuing to attack Lebanon and also because Hezbollah is attacking Israel and is responding to it. There's a war going on, kind of a low grade war going on in southern Lebanon, which is part of the MoU. Like the first clause of the MoU between US and Iran says that has to be considered part of the deal. There cannot be fighting in Lebanon. They're still fighting in Lebanon. Iran responds by saying, well, we're going to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US Says, no, you haven't closed it. So again, back and forth. And then Trump calls into Fox and this is what happens.
Will Salatin
Yeah.
Spinquest Announcer
Hey, guys, good morning. I just spoke with President Trump for more than 20 minutes and he gave some new insight and reaction about the ongoing talks that are taking place in Switzerland and the threats coming from the Iranian regime. President Trump telling Fox News that the US May take over the strait in the future if they have to, and collect tolls. The president described this as the United States being the guardian angel of the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East. And the president said ultimately that would involve the US taking 20% of the oil that passes through the strait. Remember, this comes in reaction to the Iranians saying they will close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. President Trump tells Fox News he spoke with Iranian officials overnight and said, you close it and you won't have a country. He went on to tell these officials, you won't even make it back to your effing country.
Sam Stein
All right, well, Sam, my brain hurts.
Will Salatin
Okay, so let's set aside the part where he has negotiations with people and threatens to kill them before they get
Sam Stein
back, before they leave the negotiations.
Will Salatin
Generally, not a well understood principle of diplomacy that if you want people to talk to you, you generally don't kill them while they're talking to you or before they.
Sam Stein
But this, I will just say this has been a. It's not like an idle threat like the Israelis were doing this. There is real concern that if you do actually enter negotiations, you may get assassinated. I'm sure this is on the imams of the Iranians.
Will Salatin
Yeah, no, they, and obviously Trump always brags, we killed the first set, we killed the second set of leaders. Now we're talking to the third set. So when he, as you say, when he threatens to kill the third set, they're going to take it seriously and you're not going to get negotiations. But can we come back to this part about that we're going to take over the strait, we're going to charge them, not even them. We're going to take 20% of the oil. And Sam, that's a threat to the whole world. That's a threat that we're just gonna, like, steal oil sold by one country to another country, neither of which is us. And so we're thieves. And of course, remember, the reason why Trump is doing this is because he's already been doing it in Venezuela. And he's been getting away with it. Right. We're just like, we're confiscating some part of their oil, and we're putting. Americans are putting up with it, the world's putting up with it. So, you know, it's more. I don't know, Sam, what's a nice way of saying war crime? I mean, we're.
Sam Stein
Well, it is. It's threatening war crime for sure. I mean, he's talking about destroying the civilization. And then this. The Strait of Hormuz stuff is obviously a part of it, too. But I keep coming back to the fact that at various junctures, he said, we don't even need the Strait of Hormuz. It's like, forget it. Let the Europeans deal with it. That's that. That we have enough oil for ourselves. Now he's going to take over the Strait of Hormuz. But also, the Strait of Hormuz is already open, according to him. So why do we need to take it over? None of this makes any sense.
Will Salatin
So let me throw in one other element that's going on today that's relevant to what you just said. Chris Wright, the Energy secretary, did two interviews today, and he's telling everybody, oh, we have the strait open. And not just that it's open because Iran wants it open. No, we have part of it open under our control. Chris Wright's story is there's actually, Sam, there's actually three parts of the Strait of Hormuz. There's a northern part the Iranians have. There's a middle part that they mind, and then there's this southern passage that we control. He's telling everybody we control it. We've been escorting ships through there. And now for Trump to claim that it's closed, you know, and that. So they're admitting that they don't have control.
Sam Stein
Yeah. And then, you know, the other obvious element here is, like, if you could take over the Strait of Hormuz, you would have taken over the Strait of Hormuz by now. Right. I mean, this has been sort of a background threat for months where Trump has said, we'll just take it over and then we don't do it. And the reason we don't do it is because it would require an incredibly risky military investment on our part. It would require boots on the ground. We would see a lot of casualties potentially. But also a huge investment of US Taxpayer does not like something. We could just sort of put our flag and be like, it's ours. Back off. So, you know, if you would. This is the thing. The threats become sort of less teethy. Right. The more you make them.
Will Salatin
Right.
Sam Stein
And I don't think the Iranians are like that persuaded at this juncture. But it doesn't help negotiations if you're doing it at the onset of the negotiations.
Will Salatin
Yeah. I mean, as you say, it's bluster, and everyone's figured out it's bluster. But what you have from the Trump administration, from Donald Trump himself, is simultaneously message number one, the Iranians are begging. We control everything. Right. Message number two, and sorry, I'm just going to quote from his truth from a couple months ago.
Sam Stein
Yeah.
Will Salatin
Open the fucking straight. Right. I mean, you crazy bastards, remember that he's screaming at you up front, out front. That's supposed to be a threat, that we're going to hurt you. But really, that's begging. That's like, we can't open it. So we're asking you to do it.
Sam Stein
Get the other thing to note here, and then we can move on to the. What actually happened in Switzerland today is that the MOU itself does reference the strait. It does talk about free passageway through the strait for 60 days, but it seems to have become sort of the general understanding, and I'm not sure anyone has actually authoritatively disputed this, that the Iranians feel like after 60 days they can do what they want with the strait and the Oman authorities, that's the country in the southern part, and that they'll come up with some sort of fee service, more or less. It won't be a toll. They're not going to call it a toll. They'll say it's a fee. And no one seems to be actually saying, no, that's not the case. And in fact, every report from today is that there is negotiations specifically around the strait and what the future of the strait is, which is, I guess maybe I'm just sort of naive about this, but that does seem to be a real problem when it comes to negotiations, because you're starting from a place that didn't actually exist prior to the war. The war. You know, the strait was open and usable for anyone prior to the war. And now you're negotiating from a point of weakness if you United States, because you have to give a concession of some sorts or fight the concession. And the Iranians will say, well, yeah, we'll give you free passageways through the streets, but it's going to cost you. Right. So I just want to put that into. Put that out there as some important context.
Will Salatin
Yeah, I mean, so point number One, what you said about the strait was open. I mean, we have Vance and Trump and everybody in the administration bragging today that they've negotiated to open the strait.
Sam Stein
Congrats.
Will Salatin
Which was getting us back to square one. That's nothing. You stopped banging our head against the wall. That's what you did. Right, right. But the other thing about the 60 days, Sam, so the Trump and Vance story is, oh, it'll be open after 60 days, don't worry. Why then did you, Trump and Vance, sign this deal, negotiate this deal that literally says this will be the strait will be open without tolls from us, Iran, for only 60 days? The word that's literally in the agreement, that is a concession. And you can't then start the next stage of the negotiations claiming, well, I know we said it was only 60 days, but now presumptively, it's going to be open that you put the presumption in the document. And the presumption was, after 60 days, it's fair game for the Iranians.
Sam Stein
Yeah, well, I don't know if the 60 days is going to be enough for these negotiations, although we'll see. But the first day had its ups and downs. So J.D. vance is the sacrificial lamb for Trump, and he's out there in Switzerland and he's talking with the Iranians. And there was a lot of sort of like, I don't want to call it like Zapruder film analysis, but it was getting close, like body language. Who's back there, who's coming in first, who's coming in second, who's shaking whose hands, and so on. Steve Wykoff's in the back, but the, the, the sort of, the body language analysts that were in my Twitter feed were getting a little bit tickled by the power dynamics situation here. This video was circulating pretty widely of J.D. vance kind of getting slighted and like he's just being ignored by members of some delegation. So let's play the clip. Okay. That was the Qataris. I just want to be clear. And they just don't shake his hand. And he's just sort of sit standing there waiting for something. So I don't know if I'm over, over analyzing it. Maybe it was just a moment, but it does seem like JD's kind of in a weird spot.
Will Salatin
Sam, it's not you, it's jd. He, he gestures like he's expecting to get his hand shaking. Like, don't do. Like, people have to understand. J.D. vance was like, knows nothing about international relations. He's picked up everything he can on the fly over the last year or two. And he's so he clearly, like, didn't know what he was supposed to do there or he got snubbed. I don't know the details of it, but one way or another, he created the visual impression that he was expecting a handshake he didn't get. And the message, by the way, from the Trump people is, oh, don't worry about what you see out front. Don't worry if we don't get our hands shaken. Don't worry if in public the Iranians are threatening to close the strait or they're saying they're not going to give us stuff because really, really behind the scenes, they're giving us everything. Really. We're having great negotiations. In what world should we accept, like these, these claims of hidden success that the Iranians won't put out front? It sure looks to me like the, the obvious, the simplest explanation is our government is lying to us about what the Iranians are saying.
Lady Luck
Hey, guys, lady luck here. Are you going on any road trips this summer? I know I'm going to be going on a bunch of road trips. And being that I'm going to be passenger princess, I Love playing on Spinquest.com Spinquest has all of my favorite slot games. Live blackjack, live craps. Head on over to Spinquest right now and get yourself a $30 coin pack for just 10 bucks.
Sam Stein
Spinquest is a free to play social casino. Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Autotrader Announcer
We all take good care of the things that matter. Our homes, our pets, our cars. Are you doing the same for your brain? Acting early to protect brain health may help reduce the risk of dementia from conditions like Alzheimer's disease. Studies have found that up to 45% of dementia cases may be prevented or delayed. By managing risk factors, you can change, make brain health a priority. Ask your doctor about your risk factors. And for a cognitive assessment, learn more@brainhealthmatters.com Right.
Sam Stein
Well, there's also this whole thing of like, well, we have some gentlemen agreements on the side and it's like, I don't know if I believe that. I'm going to choose not to believe it until I see it in writing. Right, right. Like, it just doesn't pass.
Will Salatin
And that's, by the way, that's another thing that Chris Wright was talking about. Like they were asking him, well, it looks like the Iranians are like, you know, reneging on parts of the deal. And he's like, yeah, well, they're the Iranians that's what they do. And meanwhile you get this garbage about, well, we have a gentleman's agreement with this country that we accuse rightly of lying all the time and reneging on agreements. And, you know, so it's this stuff about a gentleman's agreement to me just looks like cover for we didn't, we negotiated a crappy deal. We don't really have the leverage that we thought we did. But we're pretending that they're working with us, they're cooperating.
Sam Stein
So now the big, the big. That was a moment of drama. And then there was another moment of drama. I was watching some algae coverage of this. The Iranians look to have left the discussions over Trump's threats. There were some statements put out from their delegation saying we're not going to negotiate under threat. And then some bellicosity and some, you know, puffery about how great they are and yada, yada, yada, it's not clear. And even on the Al Jazeera broadcast, they just, they went, they made it clear this is not the end to the negotiations. In Switzerland, it was a form of protest over Trump saying, you know, we're going to bomb you and kill you and all that stuff, which I get. But talks are presumably still going on and we know this or we, we were told this. I should say we don't know this. We're told this through Barack Ravid, who is the access reporter who seems to have and in on with the US Delegation and us. Some US Officials tend to go to Barack and you can see there's a lot of text there. It's very thin. We'll get. I'll try to summarize it. He says US Diplomat told me talks with Iranians started on Sunday morning and have been ongoing in different formats, almost non stop. US Diplomat said one of the main issues the talks focused on during the day was deconfliction mechanisms in Lebanon enforcing the ceasefire. Again, this is important because for the Iranians, this is, nothing's going to happen until this is dealt with. US Diplomat added the US Iran and the mediators discussed the Strait of Hormuz. In the recent Iranian statements about allegedly closing it. Quote, we made clear we want to ensure it remains fully open. Made good progress on that front. Again, the fact that they're still working on this is a problem. U.S. diplomats said the talk stay also focused on, quote, all elements of the nuclear deal. Okay, that's very vague. US Diplomat added that the parties had productive talks on the implementation of the MoU and how to make sure. Everyone is on the same page. I, I, that's not great. You got to make sure you're on the same page with the MoU when you sign it. All right. The parties also discussed the plan for how to keep the talks going both on the political level and between the technical teams. So they're talking about how to keep talking, quote, all four parties seem pleased with how the talks went today. The mediators are helping both sides work through things. We feel this initial round of talks is setting, setting us up for trust building going forward. Okay, okay. No, that's important. I'm not going to, I won't laugh at that.
Autotrader Announcer
You do.
Sam Stein
Trust building is important. The talks on the high level political leadership are expected to end on Monday and continue between technical teams that will likely stay in Switzerland. All right, what do you make of that, Will?
Will Salatin
Sam? This is the kind of diplomatic mumbo jumbo that, like conservatives used to, they used to be really annoyed and discussed like, oh, that's the way the UN Talks, or that's the way some soft Democratic administration talks about peace talks between Israel and Palestine. You know, everything's about the process. We're talking about how we're going to work through, blah, blah, blah. But you're not actually getting anywhere. It's what you say when you don't really have anything. You don't even have, as you said, we don't have a common basis established in the MoU about the, the nuclear program. There was one other thing I wanted to say about Lebanon, if you wanted to.
Sam Stein
Sure. Well, I'll just, I'll add to this and then you can do Lebanon, which is, you're absolutely right, because according to this US Diplomat talking to Barack Ravid, if you just read the plain text of what he's saying, the two major elements of the MoU are now radically in dispute. What's happening in Lebanon and what's happening with the strait. And so we are not at a post MOU negotiation. We are at a, can we get back to a jointly established understanding of the mou? And that's happening While the Iranians are protesting various elements of the talks and the Qataris are apparently snubbing J.D. vance. And Trump's issuing threats through Fox News about killing the Iranian negotiators. It's not, I mean, I don't think objectively it's a very strong first day. It could be fine, but it's just this is not a great starting point for the negotiations.
Will Salatin
Yeah. I mean, it's the kind of day that is consistent with Theory number one about what's going on, which is that Donald Trump and J.D. vance and this administration have no idea what they're doing. They're making it up as they go along. And this is the kind of day that you would have on day one if that were. If that were the case. I wanted to throw in one thing about Lebanon. Why is this Lebanon stuff even in the agreement? This was an Iran agreement. This was a giant concession to Iran. This was part, you know, we said they were begging. So we've, we've reaffirmed that Iran has influence over Lebanon, that Iran has regional control, and that if things aren't the way that Iran wants it to be in Lebanon, somehow the Iran deal, it falls, would fall through. And we've hamstrung the Israelis, who, from their point of view, it's like, wait, this is a whole separate deal, and we've, we've created a linkage to help Iran. You know, it's not a linkage that helps us in any way. It's because it's just been a headache. So this was a. The fact that it is in the agreement and that is holding things up is an expression of the weakness of the, or the stupidity of this administration in giving away something they didn't need to.
Sam Stein
It also creates a system where Hezbollah can just basically throw a wrench in anything. Exactly. And the Iranians could say, well, you know, we don't control Hezbollah. Right. Like, well, I mean, obviously they do, but they can just say they, you know, we can't stop them from attacking. And then Israel is going to say, well, if they're going to attack us, obviously we have to defend ourselves. And then Trump's left with choosing which side he wants to admonish. And a couple of days ago, as the Israelis, yesterday was Hezbollah. And, you know, that's the situation we're in right now. It's a, It's a real quagmire.
Will Salatin
And Vance, by the way, bragged about this. Vance bragged all of last week about, we put this thing in about regional peace and stability. He was paragraph one of the mou, basically. And you read paragraph one. It doesn't really constrain Iran because Iran has terrorist proxies. It constrains us and it constrains the Israelis because it's about, quote, military action. And, and that paragraph, that, paragraph one is being used right now by the Iranians to hold up the talks and say that we and the Israelis are in violation. So this just goes back to this. MOU was either negotiated by Very stupid people. Which, you know, that's a yes, but. Or people who did not actually have control of the situation and had to make that concession to the Iranians in order to get a deal.
Sam Stein
It is a mess, man. All right, I gotta go. I gotta, I gotta cook some stuff for my Father's Day grill session with my own dad and my kid. Which reminds me though, because it's still, there's still time. It's still Father's Day. We're recording about 5:20pm on Sunday. But if you're seeing this and you're like, oh, I forgot to give my dad a gift and my dad needs like some good sane news in his life. People who just cut through the. I know what I'm gonna get them. I'm gonna get him a Bulwark membership. Well, look, folks, it's the gift. It's the only gift to get your dad on Father's Day. It's the best last minute gift, a panic purchase. To get your father on Father's Day, all you gotta do is go to the bulwark.com subscribe. You can get a membership plan. Monthly annual Founders Navigators. You want to go crazy? Navigators is crazy. You get great stuff, commercial free stuff. You get content like this all the time. Just go to the membership plan of your choice. That's bulwark.com subscribe. Will, thank you for doing this, buddy. I'm sure we're going to be talking about these negotiations for a while. Turn for that. Okay, Good luck with.
Will Salatin
Good luck with the barbecue, Sam.
Sam Stein
All right, take care, bud. What's up, everybody? It's Bretzky. And America is turning 250. And I can't think of a better way to celebrate that than playing on an American owned social casino. Social spin quest.com with all of your favorite games. Live craps, bubble craps, live blackjack. There's no better place to play or free and win real cash prizes. Spinquest.com Spin Quest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited.
Spinquest Announcer
Visit spinquest.com for more details.
Sam Stein
Celebrate America's 250th with Dish. For a limited time, get an extra $250 off when you sign up. Call 888-add-direct or visit dish.com today and use code DISH250 to claim your $250 savings. That's 888 Add Dish. Offer ends August 12th. Terms apply.
Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Host: The Bulwark (Sam Stein & Will Salatin)
Date: June 21, 2026
Summary by: Podcast Summarizer
This Bulwark Takes episode dissects the opening day of high-stakes US-Iran nuclear talks in Switzerland, focusing on the confusing state of negotiations, Trump administration’s tactics, and the much-discussed awkward moment involving J.D. Vance. The hosts, Sam Stein and Will Salatin, deliver a sharp, irreverent, and deeply skeptical take on the spectacle, highlighting both the policy substance and diplomatic drama.
Quote (Sam Stein, 01:14):
“This was the first day of talks between the Iranians and US delegations in Switzerland...hard to sort of make out what exactly is going on because there’s conflicting reports about whether the talks were shambolic or just ongoing.”
Quote (Will Salatin, 04:01):
“We’re just gonna, like, steal oil sold by one country to another country, neither of which is us. And so we’re thieves...I don’t know, Sam, what’s a nice way of saying war crime?”
Quote (Sam Stein, 06:12):
“If you could take over the Strait of Hormuz, you would have. This has been sort of a background threat for months...But it would require an incredibly risky military investment on our part.”
Quote (Will Salatin, 09:08):
“Congrats. Which was getting us back to square one. That’s nothing. You stopped banging our head against the wall. That’s what you did.”
Quote (Will Salatin, 11:16):
“J.D. Vance knows nothing about international relations. He’s picked up everything he can on the fly...One way or another, he created the visual impression he was expecting a handshake he didn’t get.”
Quote (Will Salatin, 16:34):
“This is the kind of diplomatic mumbo jumbo that, like, conservatives used to be really annoyed and disgusted by...But you’re not actually getting anywhere.”
Quote (Will Salatin, 19:05):
“This was a giant concession to Iran...the fact that it is in the agreement and is holding things up is an expression of the weakness or the stupidity of this administration in giving away something they didn’t need to.”
On Trump’s threats:
“You close it and you won’t have a country. You won’t even make it back to your effing country.”
— Trump via Fox News, paraphrased by reporter (03:20)
On the haphazard US approach:
“This is the kind of day that you would have on day one if Donald Trump and J.D. Vance and this administration have no idea what they’re doing—they’re making it up as they go along.”
— Will Salatin (18:00)
On the strait deal:
“We have Vance and Trump and everybody in the administration bragging today that they’ve negotiated to open the strait...That’s nothing. You stopped banging our head against the wall.”
— Will Salatin (09:08)
On Vance’s diplomatic skills:
“He gestures like he’s expecting to get his hand shaken. Like—don’t do. Like, people have to understand. J.D. Vance knows nothing about international relations.”
— Will Salatin (11:16)
Stein and Salatin bring a skeptical, often sarcastic tone. They use colorful language to critique both Trump’s bravado and the administration’s diplomatic amateurism, reflecting a broader frustration with both the process and the personalities involved.
This episode is a wide-ranging roast of the Trump administration’s foreign policy, the carnival atmosphere of the Switzerland talks, and the performative elements dominating what ought to be serious negotiations. The takeaway: “Hidden success” isn’t as good as a handshake you can actually get.