Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes – "10 Points Down! New Poll Is A Disaster For Trump"
Episode Details:
- Title: 10 Points Down! New Poll Is A Disaster For Trump
- Release Date: April 17, 2025
- Host/Author: The Bulwark, featuring Sarah Longwell and Bill Kristol, along with host JVL.
Overview of the Poll Results
In this episode of Bulwark Takes, host JVL and Sarah Longwell delve into the latest polling data from YouGov and The Economist, revealing a significant decline in former President Donald Trump's approval ratings. The poll indicates Trump's net favorability and job approval have plummeted to minus 10 points.
JVL opens the discussion by highlighting the disheartening statistics:
“[00:00] JVL: Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my best friend Sarah Longwell of the Bulwark. And we got some bad news polling today for Donald Trump.”
Sarah elaborates on the numbers:
“[00:35] Sarah Longwell: So we're going to compare it to itself, but it has Donald Trump at minus 10 approval. So 42% approve, 52% disapprove. And that is 2 points worse than last week when he had a 43% approve and a 51% disapprove.”
Trump's Declining Approval Ratings
Sarah Longwell provides context for the declining trend, noting that Trump's approval has been eroding steadily since his inauguration:
“[01:41] Sarah Longwell: ...this is the trend that we've been seeing since Inauguration Day... it's been declining pretty much ever since, consistently.”
She emphasizes that the drop isn't due to a singular event but a "slow erosion" of support:
“[02:20] Sarah Longwell: ...it's not dropping like a stone over one thing because when that happens, it bounces back, right? This is sort of a, just a slow erosion.”
Economic Promises and Reality
A significant part of Trump's decline is attributed to unmet economic promises. Sarah criticizes Trump's pledge to reduce grocery prices:
“[02:36] Sarah Longwell: ...Trump was always setting himself up for this right now, to be fair, making promises you know you can't keep can help you get elected.”
She points out the disconnect between Trump's promises and the economic reality:
“[02:20] Sarah Longwell: ...Trump could not walk in and lower prices. And so instead he has focused on things he can control... but on the economy people just don't think he's doing what he said he was going to do.”
Bill Kristol adds to the discussion, touching on Trump's campaign strategies:
“[02:20] Bill: A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper. It'll also bring your grocery bill way down...”
Republican Base Erosion
One of the most alarming findings from the poll is the 10-point drop in Trump's approval among self-identified Republicans within a week:
“[03:30] JVL: ...last week in YouGov his approval among self ID Republicans was 90 to 8A plus 82. This week it's 85 to 12 plus 72. So he dropped 10 points in a week with Republicans.”
JVL underscores the significance of this shift:
“[04:28] Sarah Longwell: ...the 10 point drop is, is I think a clear tariff signal...”
Sarah further analyzes the demographics affected:
“[04:28] Sarah Longwell: ...people who are like tariffs are bad and so like part of his not necessarily base, but certainly his voting coalition.”
Implications for Trump's Political Influence
The hosts discuss the broader implications of Trump's declining approval, particularly within his core base. Sarah suggests that as Republicans begin to distance themselves, Trump’s grip weakens:
“[08:24] Sarah Longwell: ...I think that, you know, Miller's approval numbers still really matter is that I think that the reason that people are rolling over is because people were shocked that Trump won the popular vote and they felt like he had a popular mandate.”
JVL connects these findings to potential shifts in the political landscape:
“[14:33] JVL: ...once you get into the 30s. Yeah. And the... it becomes much more incentivized to bring people out on the streets to protest the regime.”
The Risk of a Financial Crisis
The conversation shifts to the looming threat of a financial crisis, exacerbating Trump's vulnerabilities:
“[11:00] JVL: Yesterday, Bloomberg noted [...] a very real chance of getting an actual financial crisis...”
Sarah concurs, highlighting how a financial downturn could further erode Trump's support:
“[09:55] Sarah Longwell: Yes, I definitely think so.”
JVL warns of the compounded impact of economic downturns and potential crises:
“[12:51] JVL: So he's only 10 points away from that floor.”
Potential Democratic Gains
As Trump's approval slides, the hosts explore the potential resurgence of the Democratic Party. Sarah notes improving favorability ratings for Democrats in Congress:
“[17:27] Sarah Longwell: ...average voter is starting to hold a more positive than negative view of Democrats in Congress. So about 47 to 46%.”
She suggests that a more favorable view of Democrats could translate into political momentum:
“[17:27] Sarah Longwell: ...once they're back to a respectable place, I think they can be a more effective opposition party.”
Conclusion
Wrapping up the episode, JVL and Sarah reflect on the positive signs amidst the challenging political climate. JVL uses a metaphor to illustrate Trump's weakening position:
“[17:34] Sarah Longwell: It is a rare sunny podcast with me and Sarah... One of the scales on the big orange dragon's belly has fallen off and exposed his soft underside.”
They encourage listeners to stay engaged and optimistic about the potential shifts in the political arena:
“[17:36] JVL: ...there's an opening. There's a chink in the armor... Good luck, America.”
Key Takeaways:
- Donald Trump's approval ratings have declined to minus 10 points, worsening over the past week.
- Economic promises made by Trump, particularly regarding lowering grocery prices, have not been fulfilled, leading to voter disillusionment.
- A significant 10-point drop among Republican voters signals potential erosion of Trump's core support.
- The risk of a looming financial crisis could further diminish Trump's popularity and exacerbate economic hardships.
- Democrats may gain traction as Trump’s approval wanes, with improving favorability ratings in Congress indicating a possible political resurgence.
- The overall political landscape appears to be shifting amid economic challenges and declining support for Trump.
This episode of Bulwark Takes provides an in-depth analysis of the current political climate, emphasizing the decline in Trump’s approval and the broader implications for the American political system.