10: Sarah and Tim: Voters Reject Trump’s Cuts

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes - Episode 10: Sarah and Tim: Voters Reject Trump’s Cuts

Release Date: June 26, 2025
Host/Authors: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Basil

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Introduction

In Episode 10 of Bulwark Takes, hosts Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller engage in a robust discussion about the widespread voter rejection of President Donald Trump's proposed "Big Beautiful Bill." The episode delves into polling data, the political ramifications of the bill, public protests, and the launch of a new campaign titled "Home of the Brave." The conversation is further enriched by insights from guest Basil and contributions from Nicole Wallace.

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1. Unpopularity of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill

Sarah Longwell sets the stage by highlighting the significant unpopularity of Trump's healthcare bill. She notes, “This bill is already extremely unpopular. And I think that one of the only things that could make it even more unpopular is for Mitch McConnell to become one of its big champions” (01:47). The discussion emphasizes that Mitch McConnell’s support could further alienate voters who already distrust him, reinforcing the bill's unpopularity.

Tim Miller adds context by presenting polling data: “Fox News, their poll showing support of the big beautiful bill. 38% of their respondents support it. Almost 60% oppose it” (02:40). He underscores that opposition is broad, cutting across various demographics, including white non-college men, where support drops to 43% with a 53% opposition rate.

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2. Partisan Implications and Voter Coalition Dynamics

The hosts explore the bipartisan implications of Medicaid benefits. Tim Miller states, “There's no partisan difference in the households that benefit from Medicaid. It's 62% identify as Republican” (02:40). This highlights that Medicaid is a shared benefit across party lines, yet the bill threatens to impact 16 million people’s access to healthcare, as per the Congressional Budget Office.

Sarah Longwell discusses the transformation within the Republican coalition, noting how Trump's populist approach reshaped the party to include voters who previously opposed figures like Mitch McConnell. She explains, “For a lot of voters, it remade the Republican coalition. And a lot of the voters who are now part of this magnified Trump coalition, they hate Mitch McConnell and they like their social programs” (04:37). This shift makes the bill particularly detrimental to Trump's support base.

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3. Impact on Medicaid and Health Care Access

The prospective impacts of the bill on Medicaid are a central focus. Tim Miller enumerates the financial consequences for several states:

• Virginia: $25 billion loss
• Louisiana: $20 billion loss
• South Carolina: $20 billion loss
• Tennessee: $16 billion loss
• Kentucky: $12 billion loss
• Ohio: $8.5 billion loss
• West Virginia: $6 billion loss
• Missouri: $6 billion loss

He queries, “What is the plan for the human beings impacted?” (09:39), emphasizing the lack of a support strategy for those affected by the cuts.

Basil concurs, criticizing the bill's design: “It is just a horrible bill on the merits. It's going to increase costs for people, not decrease costs. It's going to increase the debt” (07:23). He highlights the absence of a coherent plan to mitigate the negative consequences of the bill.

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4. Public Protests and Political Fallout

The episode covers recent protests against the bill, including an incident at the Russell Senate Office Building where 34 people were arrested for demonstrating against healthcare cuts (06:45). Tim Miller also references Mike Johnson’s private warning that pushing the bill through could cost him his speakership and majority control, indicating deep-seated tensions within the Republican ranks (06:45).

Basil reflects on the nature of these protests, questioning the necessity and image they project: “I think that was the same protest I saw some pictures for where there is zip tying the elderly, people in wheelchairs who are protesting Medicaid, which is just a bad image” (07:23). He criticizes the Republicans’ approach, suggesting it's a strategic error that could lead to significant electoral losses.

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5. Home of the Brave Campaign Launch

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to introducing the "Home of the Brave" campaign, spearheaded by Sarah Longwell alongside George Conway, Michael Fanon, Sarah Matthews, and Susan Rice (01:47). This initiative aims to collect and amplify real stories from Americans adversely affected by Trump's policies. Nicole Wallace contributes by urging listeners to share their experiences, stating, “Let's remind Trump why America is still the home of the brave” (15:03).

Sarah Longwell elaborates on the campaign’s objectives: “Telling the stories of the negative personal consequences that people are experiencing as a result of Trump's policies is the way to help people understand why Donald Trump has failed them” (15:53). She emphasizes the importance of regular Americans sharing their narratives to counteract the influence of elite institutions that have remained silent.

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6. Personal Testimonials and Real-World Impact

The episode features heartfelt testimonials that underscore the bill's real-world impact. Laurie LaPlante shares her personal story: “We are still waiting to have his funeral at Arlington. A lot of it is because of the cuts that the Trump administration has done at the Veterans Affairs” (20:58). These narratives highlight the tangible human cost of the proposed policies.

Sarah Longwell responds by illustrating how Trump’s policies have deeply affected veterans and their families: “Donald Trump has made it clear he doesn't care about veterans” (22:00). She underscores the broader societal damage, stating, “There is only one antidote. And the only antidote is regular people saying, we are not gonna do this” (18:43).

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7. Conclusion and Future Outlook

The episode concludes with a call to action, encouraging listeners to participate in the "Home of the Brave" campaign and share their stories to foster a collective resistance against Trump's policies. Tim Miller expresses optimism about the campaign’s potential impact: “This work is so important” (23:42).

Sarah Longwell emphasizes the necessity of grassroots efforts to counteract the administration's narrative: “Regular Americans explaining how this impacts them... is the way we're going to turn the narrative about that Donald Trump around” (19:00).

The hosts collectively express hope that these concerted efforts will lower Trump's approval ratings and prevent the perpetuation of MAGA's influence in American politics.

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Notable Quotes

• Sarah Longwell (01:47): “This bill is already extremely unpopular. And I think that one of the only things that could make it even more unpopular is for Mitch McConnell to become one of its big champions.”

• Tim Miller (02:40): “Fox News, their poll showing support of the big beautiful bill. 38% of their respondents support it. Almost 60% oppose it.”

• Basil (07:23): “It is just a horrible bill on the merits. It's going to increase costs for people, not decrease costs. It's going to increase the debt.”

• Nicole Wallace (15:03): “Let's remind Trump why America is still the home of the brave.”

• Laurie LaPlante (20:58): “Everyone wants to put him to rest and to move on and remember his life and legacy, but we can't. It's very frustrating.”

• Sarah Longwell (15:53): “Telling the stories of the negative personal consequences that people are experiencing as a result of Trump's policies is the way to help people understand why Donald Trump has failed them.”

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Final Thoughts

Episode 10 of Bulwark Takes provides a comprehensive analysis of the political and social ramifications of Trump's proposed healthcare cuts. Through detailed discussions, polling data, personal testimonials, and the introduction of the "Home of the Brave" campaign, the hosts effectively illustrate the broad opposition to the bill and its potential fallout. The episode serves as both an informative and mobilizing tool for listeners who seek to understand and combat the adverse effects of the administration's policies.

Transcript

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[Sarah Longwell]

Hey, guys, Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark here. My buddy Tim Miller and I, we were just doing a Bulwark double feature with Nicole, talking about the polling numbers tanking on Trump's big beautiful bill and some of the insane comments by Mitch McConnell. I also had the chance to talk about our new project that I'm doing with my buddy George Conway and Michael Fanon and Sarah Matthews, Susan Rice, a project called Home of the Brave, where we are soliciting real stories of the harm that people are suffering due to Donald Trump's policies. And so we got into that. It was great. Hope you'll go check it out. Give it a watch. See you guys.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I mean, Sarah, there's no partisan difference in the households that benefit from Medicaid. It's 62% identify as Republican. 62% of self identified Democratic households or voters have someone in their household who has been on Medicaid or benefited from Medicaid. There's no partisan difference in the recipient of health care. The difference is in the callousness and the way Mitch McConnell talks about people, quote, getting over 16 million people in our country, according to the CBO, will lose access to health care through Medicaid. Mitch McConnell used to be the guy who cared about that. And Thom Tillis in this. These are always Tarantulas in a bowl. And we're talking about Republican infighting. But Thom Tillis is the one who's correct on this. It'll be an elect devastating electorally.

[Sarah Longwell]

Hey, look, this bill is already extremely unpopular. And I think that one of the only things that could make it even more unpopular is for Mitch McConnell to become one of its big champions, because voters hate Mitch McConnell like Republican voters hate Mitch McConnell. And I listen to them in focus groups. Every time you bring up Mitch McConnell, you are met with complete and total derision. And one of the reasons that Donald Trump was able to sort of become in a party that had previously been Mitch McConnell's is that he made it clear that he was going to be a populist president who was going to sort of preserve a lot of these social programs. He was going to be a different type of Republican. Now, for a lot of traditional Republicans, that was a bad thing. But for a lot of voters, it remade the Republican coalition. And a lot of the voters who are now part of this magnified Trump coalition, they hate Mitch McConnell and they like their social programs. And they thought that Trump was going to keep a promise to them to not take those away and sort of, you know, as an offset to giving billionaires tax cuts, which has always kind of been the wrap on Republicans. And so I think that that this becoming kind of a Mitch McConnell kind of bill is going to make it even more unpopular with the exact voters that Republicans have been able to bring into their coalition. And I think that Tillis is absolutely right. It's a political both a nonstarter and then an eventual something that could be catastrophic for them. I mean, this bill, I hear about voters more. The longer it's out there, the more it's sort of being talked about, the more voters are learning about it and the less they like it. Like this is one of those things where the more they know about what's in it, the more they don't want it to pass. And so I don't think that Mitch McConnell's comments did anything to make it more popular.

[Tim Miller]

Let me, Sarah, I have some of the polling, but you tell me if you have more. Fox News, their poll showing support of the big beautiful bill. 38% of their respondents support it. Almost 60% oppose it. And then Fox News polls the big beautiful bill among white non college men, and just 43% support it and 53% oppose it. I think Pew Research has some numbers out. 29% of adults favor the bill, while almost 50 oppose it. 21% say they weren't sure. But to your point, it's been out there long enough. And what's interesting is Elon Musk savaging Trump and the bill and blowing up his relationship with Trump over the bill also speaks to a different part of the Trump coalition, sort of that I don't know what we're calling them anymore. The men in the manosphere wing of the party has also heard Elon Musk hate it so much that he blew up his relationship with Donald Trump over it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, well, this is the thing that bill's in the sour spot with big parts of the MAGA coalition. Right. So for the people for whom debt and government efficiency and the idea that it's going to add trillions and trillions of dollars to our national deficit, it is deeply unpopular with that part of the party. And then it's also very unpopular with sort of the Josh Hawley wing of the party where they have a lot of voters who rely on these programs who know they're going to get cut. And for once, the Democrats messag is breaking through. And I'm listening to voters in the focus groups. They are saying back what Democrats are putting out there, which is they are cutting your programs, programs that benefit you regular voter in order to give tax cuts to very rich people. That stuff lands. And it lands with a lot of these voters who are now part of this MAGA coalition. And I hear voters all the time talk about how angry they are about it. And so, yeah, I think that as this continues, it's going to get less popular, not more popular.

[Tim Miller]

So, Tim Miller, these are images from the Capitol today. People are protesting. There's some reporting that Mike Johnson here, here you have it. This is a protest, I think in the Russell Senate office building. They were protesting health care cuts in the big beautiful bill. 34 people were arrested for legally demonstrating inside the Russell Senate office building. But you've also got Mike Johnson, who's basically the White House legislative affairs director, who's privately warning that the Senate, they push this through, will cost him his speakership, his majority.

[Basil]

Yeah. A couple of thoughts. I think that was the same protest I saw some pictures for where there is zip tying the elderly, people in wheelchairs who are protesting Medicaid, which is just a bad image. I don't know if it was really necessary to bring out the zip ties again. Obviously Capitol Police have protocols or whatever. But if I was the Republicans running the Senate in that case, I would probably be discouraging them from doing that. As far as the Mike Johnson and Whether this has trouble in the house, the Mitch McConnell quote, It's a nice reminder of dark Mitch McConnell. There's a moment there where I was softening on Mitch because he opposed some of the cabinet secretaries unlike anybody else. It's a nice reminder of dark Mitch McConnell. The part of the quote that you focused on, obviously the people who get over it is such a bad quote and it'll be easy for Democrats to run in ads all next year. It's just own goal. To me, the more interesting political strategic part of the quote was the first thing he said though, where he said failure is not an option. And I guess I hate to give the Republicans advice, but I just keep coming around to why. I truly don't understand why they're jamming this through. Donald Trump in the past, see what you want about him, has been decently savvy on these issues, particularly with regards to entitlements, of not being on the side of these kind of cuts. They have both the House and the Senate. They could just pass popular stuff and they could just extend the Trump tax cuts for the middle class and maybe whatever, throw no tax on tips on top of it. I'm sure they're gonna have to fund their ICE prisons, which isn't going to be that popular, but I think they'll be forced to do that. But besides that, I don't know why they feel the need to put this bill through, which is just a horrible bill on the merits. It's going to increase costs for people, not decrease costs. It's going to increase the deb. It's going to make health care less accessible for their own working class base. It truly makes no sense and it feels like that they're just doing it because they feel like they have to do something. Like that's the thing about that Mitch McConnell quote, failure is not an option. Like there's this inertia that's taken hold and they're like, well I guess we got to do something. And so they're going to jam through this really unpopular bill. And to me it seems like a major political strategic error and a lot of folks are going to lose their seats over it next year if it doesn't change.

[Tim Miller]

Well, you're right to focus on that part of it. What does that even mean? Failure isn't an option because we're all in a cult and we can't disappoint the Dear Leader. It's not good policy. I mean, none of them believe in its impact on the debt. None of them are fans of it because of its policy implications. So what is this a window into? And I want to put up one more set of numbers. This is what Virginia, the Commonwealth of Virginia will lose almost $25 billion. It's a republic. Governor. I wonder, I wonder if he weighs, has weighed in or agrees with Mitch McConnell that failure isn't an option. State of Louisiana loses $20 billion. State of South Carolina $20 billion. Tennessee $16 billion. Kentucky $12 billion. Ohio $8.5 billion. West Virginia $6 billion. Missouri $6 billion. I mean, Tim, these are, they're not bastions of blue state woke politicians. Are they all just marching off the off a cliff? And what is, what is the plan for the human beings impacted?

[Basil]

Yeah. Oh, I don't think there's a plan for the human beings impacted. The political plan, I think, is that they're just going to kind of jam it through and hope people don't notice by the next midterms. And a lot of the stuff they have backloaded. So a lot of these cuts come late, you know, in 2027 or, you know, they're not totally unsavvy about this. I believe that that chart you're just showing was the, was the chart that Thom Tillis, the North Carolina senator who's up next year, so there's reason to be concerned about this, was showing to his colleagues. Yeah, that is the one that Tillis was showing colleagues to kind of make this point, which is, what are we doing? We're hurting ourselves with this policy. And I truly think the reality is they started from a place of we have to extend the Trump tax cuts because that's part of Trump's pride. Right. We're in some type of Trump cult, if you want to call it that. And we can't do anything to make it seem like the Trump tax cuts weren't good. So we have to extend them. And we have to have all this funding for ICE detention centers because Stephen Miller's in there. And that is essentially the only core ideological agenda these guys have is mass deportation. So we have to do those two things and we're going to try to backfill everything else to make it work, starting from that finish point. And they've ended up with this kind of monstrosity that cuts healthcare services for people but still balloons the deficit. And I don't think basically anybody is going to end up happy except for private prison companies are probably going to do pretty well. And the very top 1%, you know.

[Tim Miller]

I don't miss Steve Bannon's Influence, because I don't think he's a force for good. But I think politically, Donald Trump might. Basil, I mean, Steve Bannon was the bulwark against devastating the work.

[Basil]

Okay, hold on there. Let's choose a different word. Steve Bannon was not the bulwark. Okay, let's choose.

[Tim Miller]

He was the dam. What was he? We'll choose another word, but I didn't mean to offend both of you, but I mean, Basil's. Whatever word we choose. I don't think Steve Bannon was a champion of Medicaid cuts, and I don't think Steve Bannon is a champion of everything at Walmart. And Target going up because of Trump's tariffs. I mean, you really see the whole maga, whatever it is, rolling. You know, booze crew, whatever you want to call the movement careening away from its populist roots with real indifference to the political impact of tax cuts for the rich. You know, $400 million planes from Middle east countries. I mean, it's almost unrecognizable other than the immigration focus from its origins. Tim, I thought you were going to attack me for saying I miss Steve Bannon, but I promise not to invoke the bulwark in a negative manner if you all stick around one more block at least. When we all come back, we'll talk more with Sarah about a new campaign she has launched nationally, showcasing first person accounts of the actual Americans who are being impacted by Trump's second presidency, those who are brave enough to expose his failures and the hurt and damage they are experiencing and suffering because of him. The campaign is called Home of the Brave. It's fantastic. We'll show you some of the ways people are pushing back against Donald Trump and those who are enabling him. In the few months since Trump has been president, he's fired thousands of veterans from the federal workforce. He's gutted VA Health care. He's de staffed the Veterans Suicide Hotline. He's gutted research at the va. He's eliminated mortgage protections for veterans who are at risk of losing their homes. And he's threatened to cut other benefits for veterans that they desperately depend on and their families depend on. And it isn't just veterans. Millions of Americans have already been devastated by the things Trump has done, the cuts and the wanton disregard for how benefits impact and in some instances, protect and save people's lives. Our friend Sarah Longwell is launching a new project around these issues. It's called Home of the Brave. She's encouraging all of these people impacted to Speak out about the damage Donald Trump has done to them. Take a look.

[Nicole Wallace]

We say America is home of the brave. So why are so many people caving to this wannabe dictator? Law firms, media companies, universities, tech oligarchs are all buckling when threatened by Donald Trump and his administration. These elite cowards might be caving, but not us. We're Americans, and we aren't intimidated. So let's do what the cowardly elites want. Stand up and say something. We're collecting stories about how this administration is hurting people like you. Visit of the brave.org now to share yours. Let's remind Trump why America is still the home of the brave.

[Tim Miller]

I love this campaign. We're back with Sarah, Tim, and Basil. Sarah is a member of the advisory board and spokesperson for Home of the Brave. Sarah, tell us about this campaign.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, Nicole, look, you and I talk about it a lot on this program, how important it is for people to speak out. I mean, one of the features of Donald Trump's sort of regime, his tenure over the last eight years, has been watching people go quiet in the face of his threats, in the face of the menace that he often projects. You know, and the way that he has threatened retaliation has caused all of these different American institutions, including media companies and the tech companies and universities, to go quiet, to cower in the face of his threats. And so the only choice now is for regular people to stand up and say something. You saw it with the no Kings protests. And look, when Tim and I are out on the road for the Bulwark and we're doing live shows, people always ask the same question, what can I do? What can I do in this moment? I'm so scared. I'm so panicked. And I say, use your voice. That's what you've got. Your voice and your vote. And so telling the stories of the negative personal consequences that people are experiencing as a result of Trump's policies is the way to help people understand why Donald Trump has failed them, has betrayed them, has lied to them, and hopefully, by regular Americans standing up and telling their stories, it will give the necessary courage. You know, we talk about courage being contagious, the necessary courage to a lot of the cowards in our elite institutions who have caved to this guy because they don't want to, you know, get crosswise with shareholders or alumni or whatever their reasons, they're not good ones. And so it's up to patriotic Americans now to tell their stories and stand up and hope that other people will follow their lead. And that's what this campaign is about. Come tell us your stories. Go to of the brave.org tell them we'll help help amplify them. We'll make sure people see them. And through that, we'll help people understand how this administration is failing this country.

[Tim Miller]

I had Alejandro Barranco on yesterday at 5 o' clock. His father was the weed whacker who was at work doing his landscaping job when the armed ICE agents arrested him and beat him, and according to him and his son, dislocated his shoulder and then left him without health care. And I had this thought, interviewing him, about how much more exposed he was. Right. Like, I work at a company that is an infrastructure for our coverage. He is a person whose father suffered at the hands of ice. And he came on our show and talked about it. And I wonder, Sarah, what the phenomenon is as you understand it right now. That is inverted courage, where you've got the people with the most to lose displaying the most extraordinary acts of courage and the people in the safest and most comfortable spaces doing less.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, it is. I don't. I don't know quite how to explain it, because to me, it is unfathomable how people who have so much, to whom this country has given so much, have decided to take Donald Trump. And this didn't happen in his first term, like, in his first term. I remember watching Republican elected officials cave to him. But a lot of members of civil society stood up. I mean, the tech, sort of, the oligarchs, whatever, they weren't in his pocket back then. Jeff Bezos was standing up to him back then, like everybody, or at least wasn't cowering in front of him. But I think when Donald Trump ran explicitly on a platform of retribution, that was all it took for so many of these media companies to say, well, you know, I've got a merger that I've got to get done. Or law firms that say, I don't know our mergers and acquisitions business, we can't stand to lose this. And so we're going to not stand up for the rule of law, the process that literally, literally we are here to defend. So the only thing that I can think is that Donald Trump has been corroding and corrupting our society now for almost a decade. And I think it is what you're seeing is it take a toll. And there is only one antidote. And the only antidote is regular people saying, we are not gonna do this. We're not gonna let all of you buckle down. You guys wanna be afraid of him? Fine. Even if we are a little scared, we're still gonna speak up because that's what America's all about. You know, that is, that is what this country. It's, it has been the through line of our history. And it's what it's going to take now to put Trump on the back of his heels to lower his approval ratings. And you know what, this is one thing I know about communications. People don't trust the elites anymore, but they do trust each other. Regular Americans explaining how this impacts them. And that is the way we're going to turn the narrative about that Donald Trump around. It's the way you're going to weaken him, lower his approval ratings and make sure that this term of his is, is unsuccessful, a deep failure. And that's how you keep MAGA from being the law of the land going forward.

[Tim Miller]

I want to see more of it. I could talk to you about this for the whole two hours. Let me play more from your testimonials.

[Laurie LaPlante]

Hi, my name is Laurie LaPlante. I'm a veteran. I was in the Navy for 10 years. My husband is also a veteran. He was a submarine officer. My father in law was a three star admiral. My father in law passed away in January and we are still waiting to have his funeral at Arlington. A lot of it is because of the cuts that the Trump administration has done at the Veterans Affairs. So that is really delaying things and it's just heartbreaking. Everyone wants to put him to rest and to move on and remember his life and legacy, but, but we can't. It's very frustrating. I wish the Trump administration, as much as they say they care about the vets and want to take care of the vets, they're not doing it.

[Tim Miller]

Sarah, it seems that we should abandon talking about things like red lines in our politics because Trump has just danced back and forth over what was once a red line in our politics and that is respect, reverence for our veterans.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, but this is also a through line about Trump. I mean, Trump is not a person who served. He is a person who wants the, the army to be his own personal ego driven sort of event for his birthday, like birthday party. He is not somebody who's shown rever, you know, he called them suckers and losers. We know from what you know, obviously the generals are one of the, the groups of people I would like to see speak out so much more often than they have. But what little we know has come from people like General Kelly us about the absolutely crazy things that Donald Trump has said about our veterans like he has no idea what it means to sacrifice, no idea what it means to have somebody who's deeply important to you and want to be able to bury them with the legacy that they deserve because they served this country and have them not be able to get somebody on the phone to do the burial because Donald Trump and this is where, look, the cuts that a lot of people can't see, touch and feel, they are touching people in lots of ways, but they, they don't always have a place to tell the story about how it's affecting them. And this might not be something somebody would think of when they make, when Doge was going around making all these cuts. And that's why it's important to tell these stories from these people about the way in which they are no longer have just the general services that were that is due to them as a family of veterans who have served this country, Donald Trump has made it clear he doesn't care about veterans. And I think it's time that, that people telling these stories help Americans sort of see through the emperor has no clothes way that Donald Trump tries to use the military as a political prop, but then doesn't actually take care of people who've actually served.

[Tim Miller]

Sir, do us this favor as people come forward for the Home of the Brave campaign and mission, offer them a seat at our table any day that they would like to join us. Because I think the pro democracy side has to do a better job than it's done over the last nine years of lifting up these voices. And I think this work is so important. Thank you so much for joining us to tell us about it.