Bulwark Takes: Episode 18 – GOP Senator Goes OFF on Trump’s Budget Bill

Release Date: June 30, 2025
Host: Sam Stein, Managing Editor at The Bulwark
Description: Bulwark Takes delivers concise and insightful analyses of the day’s news from The Bulwark team, including prominent voices like Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, and Bill Kristol.

Introduction

In Episode 18 of Bulwark Takes, host Sam Stein delves into a significant and unexpected development on the Senate floor involving Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina. The episode focuses on Tillis's vehement criticism of his own party's reconciliation bill, particularly concerning its implications for Medicaid funding.

Senator Thom Tillis' Speech

Timestamp: 01:55 – 04:07

Senator Thom Tillis delivered a passionate and critical speech against the Republican-led reconciliation bill. Highlighting the bill's detrimental effects, Tillis emphasized the following key points:

• Impact on Medicaid: Tillis criticized the bill for its planned cuts to Medicaid, which he argued would result in approximately 663,000 North Carolinians losing their healthcare coverage within two to three years. He stated, "What do I tell 663,000 people in two years or three years when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding's not there anymore?" (02:30).

• Betrayal of Party Promises: He accused the Republican leadership of betraying promises made to voters regarding healthcare. Referencing past deceptions, Tillis said, "We betrayed the promise to the American people" (03:20).

• Economic Consequences: Tillis warned that the Medicaid cuts would not only harm individuals but also have broader economic repercussions by reducing state-directed payments and provider taxes, stating, "There's a reduction of state directed payments and then there's the reduction of the provider tax. They can't find a hole in my estimate." (02:05).

• Comparison to Historical Betrayals: Drawing parallels to historical political betrayals, Tillis noted how similar actions in the past led to significant political shifts, eventually enabling him to become a U.S. Senator (03:50).

Sam Stein's Analysis

Timestamp: 01:00 – 04:07

After presenting Tillis's speech, Sam Stein offers a comprehensive analysis of the implications and motivations behind the Senator's actions:

• Unexpected Departure: Stein highlights the surprise element of Tillis's decision not to seek re-election and his strong opposition to the party's bill, noting, "Thom Tillis is not a flamethrower. He's, I guess, considered more moderate because the party has moved so far in one direction." (02:10).

• Political Risks and Implications: He discusses how Tillis's stance could influence the Republican Party, especially in swing states like North Carolina, and the potential for Democratic gains due to the retirement of moderate Republicans (03:00).

• Personal Motivations: Stein speculates on Tillis's personal motivations, suggesting that the Senator felt empowered to speak out freely now that he is not facing a primary challenge from Trump, evidenced by Tillis's statement, "I slept like a baby last night," after informing leadership of his retirement (03:35).

• Party Dynamics and Future Projections: The host elaborates on the broader trend within the Republican Party, pointing out that Tillis's retirement, along with that of Nebraska's Don Bacon, indicates a struggle for moderates to maintain their positions amidst a shifting party landscape (04:00).

• Praise for Upstanding Conduct: Stein commends Tillis for his courage to speak against his party's bill, contrasting his actions with other Republicans who support the bill despite its known negative impacts, stating, "I gotta kind of tip your hat, I guess, in the end to Tillis for seeing the writing on the wall." (04:05).

Key Takeaways and Insights

1. Internal Party Conflict: Senator Tillis's criticism of the Republican reconciliation bill underscores growing tensions within the party, especially between moderates and the more hardline factions influenced by Trumpism.

2. Healthcare as a Political Flashpoint: The debate over Medicaid cuts highlights healthcare as a critical and contentious issue that can significantly impact voter sentiment and political careers.

3. Implications for Future Elections: The retirements of moderate Republicans like Tillis and Bacon signal potential opportunities for Democrats to capture previously competitive seats, altering the balance of power in swing regions.

4. Courage in Leadership: Tillis's willingness to publicly oppose his party's legislation, even at the cost of his political future, sets a precedent for principled leadership and may inspire other lawmakers facing similar dilemmas.

5. Media and Public Perception: Through this episode, The Bulwark emphasizes the importance of holding politicians accountable and highlights significant moments where party loyalty is tested against personal and constituent ethics.

Conclusion

Episode 18 of Bulwark Takes provides an in-depth examination of Senator Thom Tillis's bold stance against his party's budget bill, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of the internal dynamics shaping current Republican politics. Sam Stein's insightful analysis not only contextualizes Tillis's actions within broader political trends but also underscores the potential ramifications for future legislative processes and electoral outcomes.

Notable Quotes:

• "What do I tell 663,000 people in two years or three years when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding's not there anymore." – Senator Thom Tillis (02:30)

• "We betrayed the promise to the American people." – Senator Thom Tillis (03:20)

• "I slept like a baby last night." – Senator Thom Tillis (03:35)

• "I gotta kind of tip your hat, I guess, in the end to Tillis for seeing the writing on the wall." – Sam Stein (04:05)

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